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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Pennsylvania election almost a dead heat and hard to see h
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Pennsylvania election almost a dead heat and hard to see how a clear result tonight
As expected the special election in Pennsylvania has been extraordinarily tight and as can be seen from the New York Times table above this is a virtual dead heat. At the moment, 0300GMT, about 11000 absentee ballots have still to be counted and it is hard to see how we can get a result overnight.
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Absentee ballots still to come from 3 other Counties.
Plus two precincts in Westmoreland.
5m5 minutes ago
.@DecisionDeskHQ says last two Westmoreland precincts are Latrobe2 and NLigonier. Saccone could reasonably hope for net-200 there, brings race down to D+650
CNN says there are 3206 absentees outstanding in GOP counties. Saccone would need to win those by 20. He didn't on eday.
If 3206 absentees split the same that would be Rep +385
So last two Westmoreland precincts are absolutely key.
EDIT: mr google says....
The Measure of American Elections - Page 129 - Google Books Result
https://books.google.co.uk/books?isbn=1107066670
"The average rate of unreturned ballots among mail ballots sent is: absentee voting 7.7 percent, vote-by-mail 8.5 percent, and permanent vote-by-mail 15.7"
Ten times that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and his spin chief Seumas Milne stood with Russia:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5497777/Jeremy-Corbyn-condemned-long-history-Moscow-support.html
I remember trying to follow it....and not entirely succeeding!
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-15555565
Rest in peace, in the stars.
Turnout seems to be up compared to last time which is good news for Dems more generally right?
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/973785899719970816
Treasury strike, anyone?
But even if Saccone is able to make up the vote deficit (unlikely, according to the number crunchers) or the close final tally prompts a recount or a legal challenge, the fact will remain that a safe Republican district, having voted for the President by nineteen points less than two years ago, appears to have effectively flipped.
https://www.newyorker.com/current/pennsylvania-special-election#EricLach57d2cf
Looks like I was wrong.
Lamb (D) 113,111 .. Saccone (R) 112,532
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43396008
It doesn't need to do much, maybe fail to roll over at an auction or two (and don't forget that China's not the only large holder of Treasuries who's been targeted), and suddenly the cost of US debt service is rising.
If they were going to be "cute" about it, maybe concentrate on simply not rolling over short term debt, as near term rates determine the cost of funding for a lot of US businesses, and homeowners.
The real lesson from this - to my mind - is that the Democrats are fired up.
Whether that will be enough, with the US economy growing nicely, is another matter altogether.
https://www.rt.com/news/421200-uk-novichok-agent-allegations/
Curiously omits 'they did it before' as a reason for suspecting Russia....
When my brother was at Cambridge in the eighties, Hawking was notorious for his erratic wheelchair driving. He would shoot out of entrances into a stream of cycles who would have to take evasive action. Politically active too. He gave the medical lecture below six months ago. A life well lived.
https://videos.rsm.ac.uk/video/professor-stephen-hawking---talk-nhs-keynote-lecture
The other option is that the US start using the huge amount of repatriated money to buy it up themselves. With all that cash sloshing around, it’s only a matter of time before interest rates rise to keep check on inflation anyway.
Cheltenham Day 2
1.30 Samcro
2.10 Presenting Percy
2.50 Voix Du Reve
3.30 Altior
4.10 The Last Samuri
4.50 Esprit de Somoza
5.30 Rhinestone
She probably also needs to grasp the nettle of oligarch donations to the Conservative Party. It may well be that a few Russian oligarchs have surmised that their best shot of hurting Putin is by supporting the Conservatives. And when you look at Corbyn the Craven, you'd have to think that was a decent assessment. But it allows him an easy distraction without being forced to address the true issues around Putin and his conflicted loyalties.
Of much greater concern is the current appalling state of affairs regarding the economy, relative to all other major countries, which will have significant consequences for the whole population, not just for one or two individuals. The Skripal affair is a convenient distraction for the current shambles that constitutes the Westminster administration.
Are you saying that Russia doesn’t stick to it’s agreements?
http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/03/13/to-russia-with-love/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+org/lWWh+(Tax+Research+UK+2)
Turns out they've elected the Joker.
On the economy we are about to have our 8th consecutive year of growth, we have full employment, we have low and falling inflation, we have hints of a fall in our trade deficit at last, we have the longest period of growth of manufacturing in more than 40 years, we have eliminated the current spending deficit, we have the national debt falling as a share of GDP, what exactly do you find so appalling?
Mr. Daodao, Skripal came here as part of a prisoner exchange with Russia. If they're going to subsequently murder men released as part of such schemes, they have dubious value at best.
https://www.spreadex.com/sports/en-GB/spread-betting/Motor-Racing/m129
Humbug!
Ladbrokes has kindly added odds to its Winner market for Australia. I'm pushed for time, though (will be off soon) so haven't made any decisions as to whether to bet early or not.
I don't know Richard, Putin, like Trump, won't last forever. We used to be in the Triple Entente with Russia, and they were our allies in both world wars. Perhaps we should substitute Turkey for France and reconstitute a 21st century version. Said with tongue firmly in cheek
They don’t need to disavow Brexit, but they do need to acknowledge it has downsides and this is one.
Nonetheless for a Democrat to win what in normal circumstances should be a safe Republican district suggests a potential Democratic tidal wave in the midterms and that the Republicans will lose the House and of they have a really bad night the Senate too
May could prove me wrong but I think it's unlikely that decisive action will come from the Tories.
Had Hillary won the UK would certainly have been 'back of the queue' behind the EU for any FTA
Yes, like Putin Trump backed Brexit. Funny that.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-deals-blow-to-german-trade-r2f3gn62b
The idea being that your local production is either more expensive or produces inferior quality, so, given a free choice, consumers opt for the non-local production (being either cheaper for the same quality, or the same price for better quality).
If you artificially increase the prices of the non-local production (impose tariffs on it), then consumers have to pay that extra for the local production or pay even more for the non-local production. It does mean that the consumers effectively take an income cut and that's funnelled to the local producers. It also reduces overall economic activity to some degree (the whatever-it-is getting more expensive means less of it is used) and hurts economic activity in the overseas producers as well.
But the very specific group of the local producers of that thing do better (at the cost of everyone else).