I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.
The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.
Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.
The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.
I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
It was Rudd who decided to resign, May did not sack her and was indeed reluctant to see her go
You're having a laugh right ?
May's left her out hanging to dry, used her as a human shield for policies enacted when she was at HO and finally chucked her under the bus when it all got too hot to handle
As I said it was Rudd who decided to resign not May who sacked her
I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.
The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.
Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.
The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.
I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
It was Rudd who decided to resign, May did not sack her and was indeed reluctant to see her go
You're having a laugh right ?
May's left her out hanging to dry, used her as a human shield for policies enacted when she was at HO and finally chucked her under the bus when it all got too hot to handle
The only problem with the last part of that is that Rudd going makes things a whole lot worse for May.
Given that one cabinet minister off the record told the BBC the other day that there wasn't much sympathy for Rudd, you could look to someone around the cabinet table for leaking information. I'd not rule out the civil service, however.
I think though, illegal/non productive immigration issue is one where a substantive slice of the public feels the country needs to get a grip of things. Therefore there needs to be care taken that whether this situation somehow changes voters views either way. I'm not sure how much it will. Thus it might be an idea for the government to double down on the general issue.
Meanwhile someone, probably the Israelis, have yet again flattened some Iranian & Syrian facilities this evening. If it is the Israelis, no one seems to see them coming and no one seems able or willing to stop them. Strange that.
I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.
The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.
Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.
The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.
I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
I think the same. While I dont particularly like Rudds politics, I do like her loyalty and devotion to duty. She stood in well at the debates at no notice. I do not like to see anyone lose her job.
The Windrush focus will now move on to May, and can she survive it? I think it will be quite damaging to her.
Rudd also stood up and urged her Cabinet mates to also stand up and clap to give May time to recover from a coughing fit during the last tory conference speech. This is the 'human' bit i guess that Osborne is tweeting about.
I'm watching the 2015 general election on youtube....imagine all of this would not be happening if the Tories failed to win a majority....
How is it even the exit poll underestimated the tories by 20 seats, even though it did much better then the polls? Are Tories just more er....conservative in nature?
The visuals will be terrible tomorrow if the forecast biblical storm does hit London -- reporters and the new Home Secretary outside a dark, rain-lashed Number 10. It might be better if the announcement were made overnight (preferably before midnight so we can go to bed).
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
I'm watching the 2015 general election on youtube....imagine all of this would not be happening if the Tories failed to win a majority....
How is it even the exit poll underestimated the tories by 20 seats, even though it did much better then the polls? Are Tories just more er....conservative in nature?
The visuals will be terrible tomorrow if the forecast biblical storm does hit London -- reporters and the new Home Secretary outside a dark, rain-lashed Number 10. It might be better if the announcement were made overnight (preferably before midnight so we can go to bed).
If it is the normal May reshuffle, even if limited, it will take all day tomorrow before Williamson persuades her that he is the man for the job
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
I think George is right. I've always thought Rudd was the acceptable face of the Tory Party and lets be honest there aren't too many of them
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
The visuals will be terrible tomorrow if the forecast biblical storm does hit London -- reporters and the new Home Secretary outside a dark, rain-lashed Number 10. It might be better if the announcement were made overnight (preferably before midnight so we can go to bed).
If it is the normal May reshuffle, even if limited, it will take all day tomorrow before Williamson persuades her that he is the man for the job
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
I think George is right. I've always thought Rudd was the acceptable face of the Tory Party and lets be honest there aren't too many of them
I love when lefty's say "this tory was more acceptabel".....they never say that at the time!
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
I'll put you down as a deficit denier then.
No - there is a choice of what you cut and what you bailout! His mates did very well - by contrast 200,000 frail elderly people in England lost their social care provision from their local council. But bailouts and schemes galore for his mates!
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
I think George is right. I've always thought Rudd was the acceptable face of the Tory Party and lets be honest there aren't too many of them
I love when lefty's say "this tory was more acceptabel".....they never say that at the time!
The acceptable face of the Toryism is post-resignation Toryism
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
I'll put you down as a deficit denier then.
No - there is a choice of what you cut and what you bailout! His mates did very well - by contrast 200,000 frail elderly people in England lost their social care provision from their local council. But bailouts and schemes galore for his mates!
You do realise that the government is currently making a profit from the various bailout schemes. RBS is set to wipe all that out, but then that was Gordon Brown bailing out Scotland's economy.
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
I'll put you down as a deficit denier then.
No - there is a choice of what you cut and what you bailout! His mates did very well - by contrast 200,000 frail elderly people in England lost their social care provision from their local council. But bailouts and schemes galore for his mates!
You do realise that the government is currently making a profit from the various bailout schemes. RBS is set to wipe all that out, but then that was Gordon Brown bailing out Scotland's economy.
One can argue that Brown should not have bailed out the banks, but none of us know what would have happened if he hadn't. Probably: no cash at ATMs on Monday morning. Panic withdrawals. Bank runs. Business failures. Depression? Who knows?
And who would like to have had to make that decision?
I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.
The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.
Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.
The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.
I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
I agree it looks like that, but it's very odd - if you want somone to be your human shield, you surely try not to kill them yourself? But the steady stream of inside leaks that ultimately did for Rudd do seem to have come from high up.
The thing is, this Government seems generally shambolic. We rather forgot that for a while with the Syria flourish and the appearance of an outline Brexit deal, but essentially most of them don't know what they're doing or why they're doing it.
Incidentally, while Abbott has shown the "inexperienced frontbench fails to score" piece earlier this week to be wrong, the real winner is the Guardian, without whose relentless exposes we'd be little the wiser about any of this,
Why would anyone want to be HS? It strikes me as the mother of all hospital passes at the best of times. But now, well, you’d be forever sorting out the messes Mrs May left behind.......
Not always the case though. Roy Jenkins did very well out of the Home Office in the 1960s - and Jim Callaghan effectively restored his position in Government after ceasing to be Chancellor. A decade later Merlyn Rees performed ok in the the same office.
Incidentally, while Abbott has shown the "inexperienced frontbench fails to score" piece earlier this week to be wrong, the real winner is the Guardian, without whose relentless exposes we'd be little the wiser about any of this,
Rudd may have gone over the potential misleading of Parliament but for the average voter the fact the government has targets for deporting illegal migrants is probably a good thing in their view
But I doubt the public are happy about deporting legal ones. Even xenophobic Brexiteers
Hannah Arendt said morality is the choices that you make so that you can be friends with yourself. The voters wanted immigration controlled but didn't want to be presented with the consequences. Brexit will go the same way...
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
I'll put you down as a deficit denier then.
No - there is a choice of what you cut and what you bailout! His mates did very well - by contrast 200,000 frail elderly people in England lost their social care provision from their local council. But bailouts and schemes galore for his mates!
You do realise that the government is currently making a profit from the various bailout schemes. RBS is set to wipe all that out, but then that was Gordon Brown bailing out Scotland's economy.
I am specifically referring to help to buy as an example - the bank bailout occurred two years before he came into office. Helping first time buyers pay up to 40 per cent more than they would have done for a new build compared to 2012 is great news for developers but perhaps less so for those first time buyers. Some of the CEO and directors of the major housing developers have been getting tens of millions in bonuses on the back of the scheme - while loading massive debts on those who bought.
Osborne and his family did very well out of his time in office with the debt fuelled housing boom he created and changes in taxation.
What may show a profit now may not always do so - because recessions happen as we saw in 2008 and will do again.
PS Ever wondered why so many young people hate the Tories?, Osborne has destroyed their future core vote - renters don't tend to vote Tory!
On a side issue, Vince Cable has come out very badly from this; he was quoted earlier today as saying that he didn't see why Rudd had to go. It won't register with the general public, but Lib Dem members are getting very worried about Cable.
If there were a market on "next new major party leader", my money would be on Layla Moran. (Where "major" includes the Lib Dems and excludes UKIP.)
Oh, and I'm not convinced that Rudd will necessarily line up behind the Soubryites on the customs union et al. Yes, personally I hope she will, but it seems a little early for her name to be added to the parliamentary arithmetic before she's spoken a word as a backbencher.
I've looked into my crystal ball and make the following prediction.
The Windrush scandal will ultimately cost Theresa May her job.
Coupled with the customs union/BINO on free movement stuff not even net gains on Thursday will save her.
The issue with Windrush is not just the policy but the extent to which May looks to have thrown Rudd under a bus. That kind of disloyalty - after the way Rudd served her in the general election - will not go down well.
I've never thought that May could serve to 2022. For the first time, I can see her going this year now.
I agree it looks like that, but it's very odd - if you want somone to be your human shield, you surely try not to kill them yourself? But the steady stream of inside leaks that ultimately did for Rudd do seem to have come from high up.
The thing is, this Government seems generally shambolic. We rather forgot that for a while with the Syria flourish and the appearance of an outline Brexit deal, but essentially most of them don't know what they're doing or why they're doing it.
This is a dangerous moment for the government, particularly if the local election results are very bad. Losing Westminster would be disastrous for example.
Unlike the day when May sacked Osborne when the government got a bit more human!
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
I think George is right. I've always thought Rudd was the acceptable face of the Tory Party and lets be honest there aren't too many of them
That comment shows your total ignorance of amber rudd's business career and the hurt that she caused so many investors Woger. But I wouldn't expect you to know anything of that!
Oh, and I'm not convinced that Rudd will necessarily line up behind the Soubryites on the customs union et al. Yes, personally I hope she will, but it seems a little early for her name to be added to the parliamentary arithmetic before she's spoken a word as a backbencher.
She should be worried about what she did in the past. She won't have a rosy future with monticello and many other failed ventures brought into public knowledge and where it leads.
I think though, illegal/non productive immigration issue is one where a substantive slice of the public feels the country needs to get a grip of things. Therefore there needs to be care taken that whether this situation somehow changes voters views either way. I'm not sure how much it will. Thus it might be an idea for the government to double down on the general issue.
There are - according this LSE report from 2009 - between 400,000 and 850,000 illegal immigrants in the UK, and another 150,000 people of questionable status. It is reasonable to assume that the number will have grown in the last decade.
The majority of these people (as is almost always the case with illegal immigrants around the word) have come to the UK on one type of visa, and have overstayed, with a small minority having come via people smugglers and the like.
What staggers me is that the number of illegal immigrants (once you include 'questionable status') is equivalent to ten years net EU migration.
As you say, this is one area where government has done a particularly poor job.
Difficult to say whether this resignation will help or hinder the Tories on Thursday.
Lib Dems should do well - electors likely to say a plague on both your houses
All eyes on Sutton, Kingston, Richmond and Watford.
My guess is that they'll win Richmond fairly easily, considering there is as much of Twickenham constituency as Richmond Park. (Combine the two and the LibDems were 10,000 vote aheads of the Conservatives.)
Kingston is likely to be a harder ask: it's not as Remain-y, and the bits of Richmond Park that are in the council area are solidly Conservative.
In Sutton, the LibDems actually gained seats in 2014 (there aren't many places that was true), and they have 45 seats to the Conservatives 9. For that reason I can't see them losing it. On the other hand, I'd be surprised if they increased their majority there.
I think though, illegal/non productive immigration issue is one where a substantive slice of the public feels the country needs to get a grip of things. Therefore there needs to be care taken that whether this situation somehow changes voters views either way. I'm not sure how much it will. Thus it might be an idea for the government to double down on the general issue.
There are - according this LSE report from 2009 - between 400,000 and 850,000 illegal immigrants in the UK, and another 150,000 people of questionable status. It is reasonable to assume that the number will have grown in the last decade.
The majority of these people (as is almost always the case with illegal immigrants around the word) have come to the UK on one type of visa, and have overstayed, with a small minority having come via people smugglers and the like.
What staggers me is that the number of illegal immigrants (once you include 'questionable status') is equivalent to ten years net EU migration.
As you say, this is one area where government has done a particularly poor job.
Net EU migration is 40-85k per year? That doesn't sound right.
I think though, illegal/non productive immigration issue is one where a substantive slice of the public feels the country needs to get a grip of things. Therefore there needs to be care taken that whether this situation somehow changes voters views either way. I'm not sure how much it will. Thus it might be an idea for the government to double down on the general issue.
There are - according this LSE report from 2009 - between 400,000 and 850,000 illegal immigrants in the UK, and another 150,000 people of questionable status. It is reasonable to assume that the number will have grown in the last decade.
The majority of these people (as is almost always the case with illegal immigrants around the word) have come to the UK on one type of visa, and have overstayed, with a small minority having come via people smugglers and the like.
What staggers me is that the number of illegal immigrants (once you include 'questionable status') is equivalent to ten years net EU migration.
As you say, this is one area where government has done a particularly poor job.
Net EU migration is 40-85k per year? That doesn't sound right.
Thanks - not quite as lurid as some would have us believe....
Also, most of the allegations seem to actually pertain to her father. Her real crime seems to have been the investor relations person at one of a million "dot com" incubators around the year 2000.
And for humour value, I ran Monticello through the Companies House website and found a distinct lack of references to Finchley Road.
This is a dangerous moment for the government, particularly if the local election results are very bad. Losing Westminster would be disastrous for example.
Since I suggested Laddies' 10/1 odds against a 2018 GE just one week ago, they have trimmed their odds to just 6/1 and that's probably before taking account of Amber Rudd's resignation at approx 10pm last night. Betfred currently go 7/1.
When good people compromise their principles and beliefs for power they all too often end up like Amber Rudd. She implemented a policy created by Theresa May that deliberately viewed immigrants as not worthy of decent, humane treatment, and which saw certain kinds of British citizen as expendable - all driven to get positive headlines in right wing newspapers. On a personal level, she has had a horrible few years. I feel very sorry for her.
For May, this is a thoroughly-deserved headache. She has lost her human should, the backbenches gain another pro-Customs Union MP and she has to find a way of maintaining the cabinet’s Leave/Remain balance. It’s going to be tough.
Thanks - not quite as lurid as some would have us believe....
Also, most of the allegations seem to actually pertain to her father. Her real crime seems to have been the investor relations person at one of a million "dot com" incubators around the year 2000.
And for humour value, I ran Monticello through the Companies House website and found a distinct lack of references to Finchley Road.
I thought you could do better quality research than that Robert. You've not even scratched the surface with the above.
Comments
https://twitter.com/TripeUK/status/990184314569744386
She was his former PPS.
I think though, illegal/non productive immigration issue is one where a substantive slice of the public feels the country needs to get a grip of things. Therefore there needs to be care taken that whether this situation somehow changes voters views either way. I'm not sure how much it will. Thus it might be an idea for the government to double down on the general issue.
Meanwhile someone, probably the Israelis, have yet again flattened some Iranian & Syrian facilities this evening. If it is the Israelis, no one seems to see them coming and no one seems able or willing to stop them. Strange that.
Angry people on benches: Sourby, Morgan, Rudd.
Amber Rudd has resigned on 29 April, which is shortly before May
How is it even the exit poll underestimated the tories by 20 seats, even though it did much better then the polls? Are Tories just more er....conservative in nature?
40 per cent cuts to social care massive cuts in police funding and border control while starting schemes like help to buy which have made the bosses of the main UK housing developers very rich men in the tens of millions. And we wonder why our social care and immigration system is such a mess and crime is spiralling.
Maybe he could look in the mirror and reflect on his contribution.
https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/990717651671543809?s=19
Oh...
https://twitter.com/HackneyAbbott/status/986685449585512448?s=19
May in the frame now...
Sounds like voting with Sourby and co to me...
Plus I'm not going to take lectures from a traitor like you who is prepared to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister.
https://twitter.com/ameliagentleman/status/990720603165483011
The liberal media shouldn't think the public attitude has changed on this, it hasn't, majority still want to reduce inward migration.
Not remotely deliverable.
And who would like to have had to make that decision?
The thing is, this Government seems generally shambolic. We rather forgot that for a while with the Syria flourish and the appearance of an outline Brexit deal, but essentially most of them don't know what they're doing or why they're doing it.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsCo/status/989215514084892673
Osborne and his family did very well out of his time in office with the debt fuelled housing boom he created and changes in taxation.
What may show a profit now may not always do so - because recessions happen as we saw in 2008 and will do again.
PS Ever wondered why so many young people hate the Tories?, Osborne has destroyed their future core vote - renters don't tend to vote Tory!
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2006/12/amber_rudd_sele.html
If there were a market on "next new major party leader", my money would be on Layla Moran. (Where "major" includes the Lib Dems and excludes UKIP.)
The majority of these people (as is almost always the case with illegal immigrants around the word) have come to the UK on one type of visa, and have overstayed, with a small minority having come via people smugglers and the like.
What staggers me is that the number of illegal immigrants (once you include 'questionable status') is equivalent to ten years net EU migration.
As you say, this is one area where government has done a particularly poor job.
Kingston is likely to be a harder ask: it's not as Remain-y, and the bits of Richmond Park that are in the council area are solidly Conservative.
In Sutton, the LibDems actually gained seats in 2014 (there aren't many places that was true), and they have 45 seats to the Conservatives 9. For that reason I can't see them losing it. On the other hand, I'd be surprised if they increased their majority there.
Watford I know nothing of.
(And I was adding the 150,000 people of 'questionable status' to bring the high end of the illegal immigration range up to c. 1m.)
Another Russian poisoning?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/bp-chief-executive-bob-dudley-poisoned-in-russian-plot-20180430-p4zccy.html
And for humour value, I ran Monticello through the Companies House website and found a distinct lack of references to Finchley Road.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/990711597256642560
For May, this is a thoroughly-deserved headache. She has lost her human should, the backbenches gain another pro-Customs Union MP and she has to find a way of maintaining the cabinet’s Leave/Remain balance. It’s going to be tough.