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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle for Wandsworth from a LAB perspective
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle for Wandsworth from a LAB perspective
Theresa May had a bit of a cheek turning up in Wandsworth and claiming a victory where the Tories came within a whisker of losing their jewel in the crown council
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As for Corbyn, if he does form a minority government propped up by the LDs and SNP, the Tories would still be largest party and having the role of opposition in mainland GB all to themselves.
Anyway as Rawnsley rightly points out projections from the 2014 Local Elections had Ed Miliband in Downing Street with a majority, so Corbyn has a long way to go yet
I'm afraid in politics there are few prizes for a close second. Had Labour taken control of Wandsworth it would have been a valuable counter-point to the failure to take Barnet. It wouldn't have completely changed the narrative but it would have been hugely significant.
As it is, all Labour had was winning Plymouth and robbing the Tories of their majority in Trafford (and winning Tower Hamlets I suppose) even though Labour made net gains and the Conservatives net losses overall (and a hundred losses in London).
The casual complacency Don shows - as ever - is one reason why Labour seem destined to stay in opposition for the foreseeable future.
One thing Corbyn learnt was, do not be seen siding with Conservatives , like his Scottish colleagues , as you get wiped out.
In a scenario where all parties seem devoid of up & coming leadership potential, shut your eyes & stick in a pin has a lot to recommend it. For Labour picking a woman because she's a woman may be a good way of doing that.
For the Conservatives, going for Sajid Javid because he's ethnic minority may serve the same purpose.
Good evening, everyone, and many thanks for the article, Don.
Next.
Emily Thornberry must have a chance , currently on her own merit In any leadership contest.
The key statistic next year though will be the NEV share and whether Labour can get a significant lead after only managing to tie the Tories this year
Cyclefree, Mr Meeks, TSE or Sean Fear set the bar very high. This falls way below it.
Just like the success when we left the ERM, and didn't join the single currency.
At what point will the London media start writing articles about how bad they must be and how they should be playing Minor Counties cricket leaving professional stuff to the grownups?
(Hint: the answer is somewhere between 'never' and 'longer than that!')
I could live with a successful Brexit, but a success on those lines putting the Jezaster in Downing Street for a decade - I'll pass on that, thanks.
It reminds us of the ongoing truth of this Daily Mash classic.
It also helps to explain why when they should be further out of sight of the Conservatives than a gazelle racing a slug, they aren't, deeply frustrating though that is to those of us who hope endlessly for vaguely competent government.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/5781292164001/?#sp=show-clips
Two observations:
1. British policy is very sensible
2. Boris Johnson looks stupid
Yes, because the Tories have been in power for the last 40 years and nothing has happened since the time of Mrs T that might have contributed to houses becoming unaffordable.
I don't know that that is the right expression to use - they did win in Wandsworth. Not by much, and thanks to FPTP, but they did win. That might make it a less than perfect choice to claim victory, particularly when Barnet was an unequivocal success, but it's not exactly requiring much cheek to claim victory when victory was achieved.
The Tories deserved to lose.
When has deserving ever had much to do with whether someone wins or loses?
His verdict that “against such a shambolic government, Labour should be doing better than this” reflects a widespread view inside and outside the party. Nonetheless I think he is wrong to argue that the current “stalemate is a result that a government at midterm can live with… A draw is not good enough for the main opposition party.”
That view isn’t supported by the latest prediction from Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus which has the Tories, with a lead over Labour of just over one per cent in polling averages falling 18 short of a Commons majority.
I think that is a misunderstanding of why what is near enough a draw is something the government can live with. It's not because they or anyone else thinks they would be happy with such vote shares as were achieved at an actual GE. I would think it is because the Tories will hope that an effective draw at this point, including holding onto London councils under threat, presages that they will retain enough of an advantage at an actual GE. The key is his use of 'government at midterm'. Yes, the Tories don't want to be level pegging in the national vote come the next GE, but can they live with level pegging at this point of the electoral cycle? Yes.
That doesn't mean they will be able to benefit at the next GE as they hope, but given where plenty of other government's have been at such a point, they can indeed live with what they achieved, even if they cannot rest on any laurels. Applying that directly to a potential GE scenario strikes me as analyzing the wrong thing.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/07/politics/vladimir-putin-kara-murza-axe-files/index.html
Whatever happened to the financial sanctions we were exploring?
https://twitter.com/Lucian_Kim/status/993422246998953984
However the rest of government, which is what matters to most, just plods on doing a solidly good job. Record employment, tax cuts, better schools, more money innthe NHS.
May is never going to be exciting, but she does a pretty decent impersonation of a Ronseal tin.
May, by going to Wandsworth, made the story the government is hanging on (by its fingertips) when a trip to Barnet would have had the story that the government is making progress and Corbyn is being seriously hurt by his anti-Semitism. But cheek doesn't come into it. Its just the usual incompetence.
The wider government seems to me to be creaking a bit, and 8 years is looking tired and increasingly likely to face scandal and cock up, but not generally terrible.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/993502127489200128
This is a bizarre statement, as it was under the Blair/Brown governments that houses became totally unaffordable. The Conservatives may have failed to solve the problem, but it was made by New Labour, and their poisonous decision to keep house prices high to maintain their support in Middle England.
The measure of the man is his wide respect and he is unlikely ever to lose his acolade as the UK's most successful manager.
He is a labour person through and through but doubt he would find Corbyn an inspiration
This is a pointless statement. It didn't happen. The same could be said in reverse - another hundred or two hundred votes in the right places and the Conservative majority would have been very solid. But it wasn't.
In FPTP terms, Labour came up short. End of.
It is an interesting counter-factual, though. Imagine she hadn't called the election. Would Labour MPs have managed to oust Corbyn? They stopped trying or even being especially critical until he revealed his love of snuggling Russian bears and the rise of anti-Semitism.
As I noted, that doesn't mean they will benefit at the next GE as they will hope to do. But applying the NEV vote share of the locals directly to a GE scenario is clearly silly, since the Tories being able to live with the results is about them living with such a share at these elections not living with such a share at a GE, which was Don's contention.
Could they have lived with such results vs their expectations of sweeping all before them from last year? Certainly not, but I'm judging it by the current context, not the context of a year ago.
The £9 billion Battersea Power scheme is a symbol of how they are a soft touch for developers – at the expense of local people crying out for a decent home. Wandsworth has a homelessness crisis but the scheme has just 9% affordable housing. The homeless are paying the price for decades of Tory failure. They sold thousands of affordable homes but built only a few hundred in their place.
Surely in this context what people need are affordable rental properties? IME homeless people aren't generally looking for a mortgage, they need a flat/studio to rent within their means (Housing Benefit).
That in turn probably means a Housing Association property - but can Housing Associations themselves afford to build in London?
And, in London, does the value of land or market rate for rental property mean the Council faces constraints around getting the best return for their money?
I don't have any answers, but solutions do depend on asking the right questions.
She would be in a stronger position than now.
Let's focus on important questions.
Question 1: are brambles carnivorous?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuzLXxbGc4c
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/04/which-star-trek-race-which-eu-country
I said 'this point in the electoral cycle', but in any case the fundamental point was that whether the Tories are right or wrong to be relieved at their performance, their relief is not predicated on thinking they will get the NEV share from these locals, and the same gap (or lack thereof) from labour - it is based on assuming (again, rightly or wrongly) that the result is an indication they will do better at the GE.
That's why stating that they are wrong to think they can live with the result is incorrect, if based on applying the NEV share. Even if they are wrong to think they can live with it for some other reason, say because it is not really mid term, that method of deciding they are wrong is flawed, IMO.
With all the new species that the Federation is keen to have join them, I wonder if they use some kind of qualified majority voting system.
After all, there's someone on here who keeps telling us Resistance is Futile...
Of course in the Star Trek "Mirror Universe", we don't have an EU and a referendum about Britain leaving it.
What we have instead is the Brexit Empire, "a fascistic culture described as oppressive, racist and xenophobic, predicated on an unconditional hatred and rejection of anything and everything "other"." Despite covering the entire continent of Europe (not just the EU27 of our universe), The Empire is the antithesis of the EU in every way.
Heroically standing up to the Brexit Empire are Emmanuel Macron of the French Resistance, and Angela Merkel of the German Resistance, along with Ambassadors Barnier and Juncker, who collectively coordinate efforts by Resistance cells all over Europe, with the eventual aim of restoring Freedom to all the occupied nations.
Key among the Brexit Empire personnel include Captain Michael Burnham Smithson, Admiral Anna Soubry and Commissar Nick Clegg. But who is the head honcho of the Brexit Empire in this Mirror Universe? Who might be turned on by all this oppression, racism and xenophobia in an alternate dimension?
Easy: our very own Alastair Meeks.
Sorry, make that - Emperor Alastair Meeks Augustus Hungaricus Centaurius, Father of the Motherland, Overlord of France, Dominus of Germany, Rex Hispania.
Anyway, just for a bit of harmless fun - most of you probably have no idea what I mean by "mirror universe". But remember, "Context is for Kings"
I though a mirror image was the same not the opposite.
It's the leadership candidate with the most Labour member votes that wins - not the best person for the job. So that could be a woman.
1. We haven't left the EU yet due to a last minute extension. That might reinvigorate UKIP or OneNation, or it might be seen as irrelevant as the extension was just for six weeks.
2. We have left the EU, but the transition is just like being in the EU. Hard to know how this plays. I suspect that it won't rebound badly on the Conservative Party, so long as the direction of travel is clear.
3. We have left the EU in a disorderly manner, and are now completely free of its clutches. But leaving in a disorderly manner is also the most likely trigger of a recession.
I don't see anything that looks like us staying in the EU. I think 3 is by far the most damaging to the Conservative Party (and indeed, to the longer term cause of Brexit).
And he should take a look at a few Labour councils' records on affordable housing.
I would still consider Yvette to be one of the non-Corbynista who could be looked at as future leader. But clearly it has to be Thornberry, not a Corbynista but will be acceptable to them.
Now, if he promised to keep it under a grand a year for an entire council term, then I am onboard (my soul will be fine), otherwise I'm sure it'd be under the first year, well over in the rest.
The problem it identifies is a real one: there is no real penalty - beyond loss of time - for attempting to illegally cross the US border. The worst that currently happens is that you get deported. (Big deal, you try again.)
But there is an issue here: this will put enormous pressure on the US criminal justice system, and cost an awful lot of money. If every illegal immigrant is imprisoned for a year, that's $31,000. Add in the cost of the court case, and the associated police time for filing charges, etc., then we're talking serious money, and probably concentrated on a few states.
By the way, I do not subscribe to the mid-term philosophy. As long as Brexit is dusted and settled [ say, five years after whatever happens ], the electorate will stay loyal to "their" wing with a small swing, possibly towards the soft brexit side.
Trump will be happy. Guns were used.
May's "Customs Partnership" and McDonnell's "a Customs Union" will mean the same thing.
The Liberal Democrats and the Greens had an alliance in Richmond.
Don, given the the election of Corbyn and the subsequent strength of Momentum within Labour, I would not be surprised if this led to Diane Abbott being elected leader. Do you really think she could deliver a better result than Corbyn?
Remain: 55%
Leave: 45%
The ORB Brexit trackers only show what a difficult task the government has to satisfy Brexit supporters.
https://www.orb-international.com/2018/04/10/orb-monthly-brexit-tracker-april-2018/
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/876894066478329857