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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov finds Corbyn’s best PM ratings amongst the young ho

SystemSystem Posts: 11,004
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov finds Corbyn’s best PM ratings amongst the young holding firm but overall a post GE2017 low point

This is the first published polling since last week’s local and the findings also include the latest voting intention numbers from the firm – CON 43%+1, LAB 38=, LD 9+2.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,955
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,248
    But Mrs May had massive leads with the oldies last year then she blew it, which is why she won't be allowed to fight the next election.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/02/21/fifty-shades-of-grey-voters-corbyns-punishing-polling-with-older-voters/
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited May 2018
    What's interesting is that despite all the "young love Corbyn" memes actually Corbyn is polling much less than half of the young 18-24 year olds polled. Presumably about the same again went for "don't know" or its like.

    In fact the proportion of 18-24 voters backing Corbyn is almost identical to All voters backing May and there is no "all love May" meme.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,799
    I'm young. Huzzah!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,248
    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    That's a relief, nothing could possibly go wrong and interesting then ...
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Corbyn's vote holding up well among voters who aren't old enough to remember socialism.

    I know that's a slightly tawdry comment, but there is something in it.

    I wonder how many wide-eyed youths would support Corbyn's brand of economics if they'd actually experienced it.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,918
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    So, just let me make sure I have got this right:

    When Obama removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a bad deal.
    When Trump removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a good deal.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,897
    edited May 2018
    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
    The figures for ABC1s has hardly changed - Labour lead by 6 points 43:37

    Upside down from the normal rules of play.

    Con 43, Lab 37 for ABC1.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    Thank goodness! I was worried they would have been there when I was - but are going 4 days later......so I expect the chaos will have started....wonder where suitably photogenic they'll hold it? The Istana has aged well (built 1869)
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
    The figures for ABC1s has hardly changed - Labour lead by 6 points 43:37

    Upside down from the normal rules of play.
    Tory lead 43-37, Ian got that wrong.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Fenster said:

    Corbyn's vote holding up well among voters who aren't old enough to remember socialism.

    I know that's a slightly tawdry comment, but there is something in it.

    I wonder how many wide-eyed youths would support Corbyn's brand of economics if they'd actually experienced it.

    Was that Heath,or Wilson you were referring to ?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,897
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
    The figures for ABC1s has hardly changed - Labour lead by 6 points 43:37

    Upside down from the normal rules of play.
    Tory lead 43-37, Ian got that wrong.
    Well done on 'winning'* Newc-Under-Lyme by the way.

    *In the same way Labour actually won Wandsworth ;)
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Best PM:

    May / Corbyn / Not Sure

    18-24: 14 / 40 / 46
    25-49: 28 / 31 / 41
    50-64: 47 / 19 / 34
    65+: 64 / 14 / 23
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Best PM

    May / Corbyn / Not Sure

    Remain: 26 / 38 / 36
    Leave: 60 / 13 / 27

    Which is darkly funny as Corbyn is almost certainly more in favour of Brexit than May is.....
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited May 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    Corbyn's vote holding up well among voters who aren't old enough to remember socialism.

    I know that's a slightly tawdry comment, but there is something in it.

    I wonder how many wide-eyed youths would support Corbyn's brand of economics if they'd actually experienced it.

    Was that Heath,or Wilson you were referring to ?
    Both. And early Thatcher. Wasn't the top rate of tax 78% for her first couple of years? I'm not necessarily talking about party-politics, I'm talking about experiencing a system of being a relatively poor country, with a dysfunctional economy, high inflation, high tax and spend. I grew up in the early 80s and people were absolutely piss-poor round here compared to how they are now. And I mean piss-poor. People in my street stole coal because they couldn't afford it. The boys I coach now (aged 17-19), even the ones from the poorer areas, TO A MAN all have iphones, cool clothes, money to drink with, great social lives and cars.

    That didn't happen by accident.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    CarlottaVance said:

    Best PM

    May / Corbyn / Not Sure

    Remain: 26 / 38 / 36
    Leave: 60 / 13 / 27

    Which is darkly funny as Corbyn is almost certainly more in favour of Brexit than May is.....

    Even funnier given how anti Brexit that 18-24 cohort are.....hur hur hur, thinking Brexit's Bessy Mate is the Messiah.....

    They're young. They'll learn.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,010
    No Brexit committee meeting today...
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/994600227901526016?s=21
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,316
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    That's not a good omen. Better pack his lead-lined underpants.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    Fenster said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    Corbyn's vote holding up well among voters who aren't old enough to remember socialism.

    I know that's a slightly tawdry comment, but there is something in it.

    I wonder how many wide-eyed youths would support Corbyn's brand of economics if they'd actually experienced it.

    Was that Heath,or Wilson you were referring to ?
    Both. And early Thatcher. Wasn't the top rate of tax 78% for her first couple of years? I'm not necessarily talking about party-politics, I'm talking about experiencing a system of being a relatively poor country, with a dysfunctional economy, high inflation, high tax and spend. I grew up in the early 80s and people were absolutely piss-poor round here compared to how they are now. And I mean piss-poor. People in my street stole coal because they couldn't afford it. The boys I coach now (aged 17-19), even the ones from the poorer areas, TO A MAN all have iphones, cool clothes, money to drink with, great social lives and cars.

    That didn't happen by accident.
    Single market?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,316
    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
    The figures for ABC1s has hardly changed - Labour lead by 6 points 43:37

    Upside down from the normal rules of play.
    Tory lead 43-37, Ian got that wrong.
    Well done on 'winning'* Newc-Under-Lyme by the way.

    *In the same way Labour actually won Wandsworth ;)
    It's going to be up to the 3 LDs to decide who to back. They might not all jump the same way!

    The full council result was a notional Lab loss on the new boundaries, but we got no credit for that in the official sources. The 3 split Lab/Con wards (including the two we targeted most heavily) in the north-eastern parts shows just how close everything is.

    BTW, this national map is already up to date with everything from last week. Sensational: https://russ.garrett.co.uk/election-2018/
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,491
    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Best PM

    May / Corbyn / Not Sure

    Remain: 26 / 38 / 36
    Leave: 60 / 13 / 27

    Which is darkly funny as Corbyn is almost certainly more in favour of Brexit than May is.....

    Even funnier given how anti Brexit that 18-24 cohort are.....hur hur hur, thinking Brexit's Bessy Mate is the Messiah.....

    They're young. They'll learn.
    Yes but aCorbyn Brexit is better than a Tory Brexit for the workers.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Very much the wrong sort of supporters, according to Matthew Parris in Saturday's Times.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,010
    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Very much the wrong sort of supporters, according to Matthew Parris in Saturday's Times.
    C2DEs obviously like the sound of Brexit betrayal.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
    The figures for ABC1s has hardly changed - Labour lead by 6 points 43:37

    Upside down from the normal rules of play.
    Tory lead 43-37, Ian got that wrong.
    Well done on 'winning'* Newc-Under-Lyme by the way.

    *In the same way Labour actually won Wandsworth ;)
    It's going to be up to the 3 LDs to decide who to back. They might not all jump the same way!

    The full council result was a notional Lab loss on the new boundaries, but we got no credit for that in the official sources. The 3 split Lab/Con wards (including the two we targeted most heavily) in the north-eastern parts shows just how close everything is.

    BTW, this national map is already up to date with everything from last week. Sensational: https://russ.garrett.co.uk/election-2018/
    Sorry to be metropolitan elite but has anyone seen a 2018 results map of Greater London by ward?

    That website, while highly impressive, is impossible to view over 3G or 4G.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,897
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
    The figures for ABC1s has hardly changed - Labour lead by 6 points 43:37

    Upside down from the normal rules of play.
    Tory lead 43-37, Ian got that wrong.
    Well done on 'winning'* Newc-Under-Lyme by the way.

    *In the same way Labour actually won Wandsworth ;)
    It's going to be up to the 3 LDs to decide who to back. They might not all jump the same way!

    The full council result was a notional Lab loss on the new boundaries, but we got no credit for that in the official sources. The 3 split Lab/Con wards (including the two we targeted most heavily) in the north-eastern parts shows just how close everything is.

    BTW, this national map is already up to date with everything from last week. Sensational: https://russ.garrett.co.uk/election-2018/
    Are the independents in Stoke Labour or Tory independents ?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,244
    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Best PM

    May / Corbyn / Not Sure

    Remain: 26 / 38 / 36
    Leave: 60 / 13 / 27

    Which is darkly funny as Corbyn is almost certainly more in favour of Brexit than May is.....

    Even funnier given how anti Brexit that 18-24 cohort are.....hur hur hur, thinking Brexit's Bessy Mate is the Messiah.....

    They're young. They'll learn.
    Yes but aCorbyn Brexit is better than a Tory Brexit for the workers.
    Corbyn this week


    Falling further in the polls

    Falling further as best PM

    Lambasted by Andy Burnham over his treatment of Debbie Abrahams

    Meeting hard left German Party Die Linke leader to discuss the overthrow of capitalism, withdrawal from NATO, and a complete ban on arms sales.

    When are labour going to do something about their commie leaders
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
    The figures for ABC1s has hardly changed - Labour lead by 6 points 43:37

    Upside down from the normal rules of play.
    Tory lead 43-37, Ian got that wrong.
    Well done on 'winning'* Newc-Under-Lyme by the way.

    *In the same way Labour actually won Wandsworth ;)
    It's going to be up to the 3 LDs to decide who to back. They might not all jump the same way!

    The full council result was a notional Lab loss on the new boundaries, but we got no credit for that in the official sources. The 3 split Lab/Con wards (including the two we targeted most heavily) in the north-eastern parts shows just how close everything is.

    BTW, this national map is already up to date with everything from last week. Sensational: https://russ.garrett.co.uk/election-2018/
    Are the independents in Stoke Labour or Tory independents ?
    I wouldn't characterise them as either, though I think they'll support us.

    EDIT: sorry, you said Stoke! They're mostly from Lab seats and quite a few from the Lab party. It's going to be hard for them to hold their seats next year, imho.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,244
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    That's not a good omen. Better pack his lead-lined underpants.
    Like him or hate him he may just be onto something.

    If he pulls this off he must be a candidate for the Nobel peace prize
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,897
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
    The figures for ABC1s has hardly changed - Labour lead by 6 points 43:37

    Upside down from the normal rules of play.
    Tory lead 43-37, Ian got that wrong.
    Well done on 'winning'* Newc-Under-Lyme by the way.

    *In the same way Labour actually won Wandsworth ;)
    It's going to be up to the 3 LDs to decide who to back. They might not all jump the same way!

    The full council result was a notional Lab loss on the new boundaries, but we got no credit for that in the official sources. The 3 split Lab/Con wards (including the two we targeted most heavily) in the north-eastern parts shows just how close everything is.

    BTW, this national map is already up to date with everything from last week. Sensational: https://russ.garrett.co.uk/election-2018/
    Are the independents in Stoke Labour or Tory independents ?
    I wouldn't characterise them as either, though I think they'll support us.

    EDIT: sorry, you said Stoke! They're mostly from Lab seats and quite a few from the Lab party. It's going to be hard for them to hold their seats next year, imho.
    I meant Newcastle - on the map it is Stoke, but the detailed tab says Newcastle xD
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,316
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    So, just let me make sure I have got this right:

    When Obama removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a bad deal.
    When Trump removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a good deal.
    Remove the common elements, and you have Obama bad; Trump good.
    That seems to be the rationale.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Very much the wrong sort of supporters, according to Matthew Parris in Saturday's Times.
    C2DEs obviously like the sound of Brexit betrayal.
    It's probably Corbyn's attitude towards defence and security that's alienated them.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Gardenwalker said:

    Fenster said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    Corbyn's vote holding up well among voters who aren't old enough to remember socialism.

    I know that's a slightly tawdry comment, but there is something in it.

    I wonder how many wide-eyed youths would support Corbyn's brand of economics if they'd actually experienced it.

    Was that Heath,or Wilson you were referring to ?
    Both. And early Thatcher. Wasn't the top rate of tax 78% for her first couple of years? I'm not necessarily talking about party-politics, I'm talking about experiencing a system of being a relatively poor country, with a dysfunctional economy, high inflation, high tax and spend. I grew up in the early 80s and people were absolutely piss-poor round here compared to how they are now. And I mean piss-poor. People in my street stole coal because they couldn't afford it. The boys I coach now (aged 17-19), even the ones from the poorer areas, TO A MAN all have iphones, cool clothes, money to drink with, great social lives and cars.

    That didn't happen by accident.
    Single market?

    Monetary policy reduced inflation from double digit figures..
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Very much the wrong sort of supporters, according to Matthew Parris in Saturday's Times.

    Because they are Brexit supporters?
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Oh dear. This will upset the BINOers insisting there is no other way but theirs.

    http://www.cityam.com/285441/irish-border-can-solved-max-fac-customs-proposal-claims/amp
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    So, just let me make sure I have got this right:

    When Obama removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a bad deal.
    When Trump removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a good deal.
    Remove the common elements, and you have Obama bad; Trump good.
    That seems to be the rationale.
    I think you're missing the Islamophobic element.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    edited May 2018
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Very much the wrong sort of supporters, according to Matthew Parris in Saturday's Times.
    C2DEs obviously like the sound of Brexit betrayal.
    It's probably Corbyn's attitude towards defence and security that's alienated them.
    More likely the Labour demands to weaken enforcement on illegal immigration. As I've said before, the first party to combine tight immigration controls with higher taxes on wealth will get a huge majority.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    CarlottaVance said:

    Best PM

    May / Corbyn / Not Sure

    Remain: 26 / 38 / 36
    Leave: 60 / 13 / 27

    Which is darkly funny as Corbyn is almost certainly more in favour of Brexit than May is.....

    Corbyn should be Conservative leader and May should be Labour leader.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/994609438244982786?s=20
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Fenster said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    Corbyn's vote holding up well among voters who aren't old enough to remember socialism.

    I know that's a slightly tawdry comment, but there is something in it.

    I wonder how many wide-eyed youths would support Corbyn's brand of economics if they'd actually experienced it.

    Was that Heath,or Wilson you were referring to ?
    Both. And early Thatcher. Wasn't the top rate of tax 78% for her first couple of years? I'm not necessarily talking about party-politics, I'm talking about experiencing a system of being a relatively poor country, with a dysfunctional economy, high inflation, high tax and spend. I grew up in the early 80s and people were absolutely piss-poor round here compared to how they are now. And I mean piss-poor. People in my street stole coal because they couldn't afford it. The boys I coach now (aged 17-19), even the ones from the poorer areas, TO A MAN all have iphones, cool clothes, money to drink with, great social lives and cars.

    That didn't happen by accident.
    All fur coat and no knickers.

    Would rather own my house .
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    So, just let me make sure I have got this right:

    When Obama removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a bad deal.
    When Trump removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a good deal.
    Obama's deal was weak. It remains to be seen if Trump will capitulate in the same way with NK.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041

    That is a shock , she is a crap referee , makes VAR look good.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041

    May needs to decide what she wants and go shit-or-bust in front of her cabinet, her party and parliament. If any of them say No, time for her to resign. If she gets them all in line, then she might for once look Prime Ministerial.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    On the basis of this new yougov poll the Tories might get a very small majority at the next general election helped by some movement from Labour to the LDs
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    May has dire judgement, the political dexterity of a drunk wearing oven gloves, and the bravery of Sir Robin.

    And she's still a thousand times better as PM than Corbyn would be.

    ....
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    RobD said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Gold Standard :o
    The gold standard came to an end in Britain in 1931 and in the USA in 1971.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041

    May needs to decide what she wants and go shit-or-bust in front of her cabinet, her party and parliament. If any of them say No, time for her to resign. If she gets them all in line, then she might for once look Prime Ministerial.
    Depends if you want government by Cabinet or government by President/Dictator.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041

    May needs to decide what she wants and go shit-or-bust in front of her cabinet, her party and parliament. If any of them say No, time for her to resign. If she gets them all in line, then she might for once look Prime Ministerial.
    Totally agree , about time , she stood her ground and did some leading.

    Surely that is in the job description.
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    Corbyn's vote holding up well among voters who aren't old enough to remember socialism.

    I know that's a slightly tawdry comment, but there is something in it.

    I wonder how many wide-eyed youths would support Corbyn's brand of economics if they'd actually experienced it.

    Was that Heath,or Wilson you were referring to ?
    Both. And early Thatcher. Wasn't the top rate of tax 78% for her first couple of years? I'm not necessarily talking about party-politics, I'm talking about experiencing a system of being a relatively poor country, with a dysfunctional economy, high inflation, high tax and spend. I grew up in the early 80s and people were absolutely piss-poor round here compared to how they are now. And I mean piss-poor. People in my street stole coal because they couldn't afford it. The boys I coach now (aged 17-19), even the ones from the poorer areas, TO A MAN all have iphones, cool clothes, money to drink with, great social lives and cars.

    That didn't happen by accident.
    All fur coat and no knickers.

    Would rather own my house .
    Instant gratification versus invest for the future and later gratification.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    David_Evershed said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    Corbyn's vote holding up well among voters who aren't old enough to remember socialism.

    I know that's a slightly tawdry comment, but there is something in it.

    I wonder how many wide-eyed youths would support Corbyn's brand of economics if they'd actually experienced it.

    Was that Heath,or Wilson you were referring to ?
    Both. And early Thatcher. Wasn't the top rate of tax 78% for her first couple of years? I'm not necessarily talking about party-politics, I'm talking about experiencing a system of being a relatively poor country, with a dysfunctional economy, high inflation, high tax and spend. I grew up in the early 80s and people were absolutely piss-poor round here compared to how they are now. And I mean piss-poor. People in my street stole coal because they couldn't afford it. The boys I coach now (aged 17-19), even the ones from the poorer areas, TO A MAN all have iphones, cool clothes, money to drink with, great social lives and cars.

    That didn't happen by accident.
    All fur coat and no knickers.

    Would rather own my house .
    Instant gratification versus invest for the future and later gratification.
    Careful, or some PPE wonk will turn up and give you an essay on that...
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Very much the wrong sort of supporters, according to Matthew Parris in Saturday's Times.
    Explains why there was a big swing away from Labour in places like Nuneaton & Bedworth, but they did well in David Cameron's former constituency.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    On the basis of this new yougov poll the Tories might get a very small majority at the next general election helped by some movement from Labour to the LDs

    You can dream on , with your current leader.

    She has asked the audience .

    Called a friend .

    Gone 50 -50.

    Now we need an answer , or bugger off and let someone else , have a go.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Very much the wrong sort of supporters, according to Matthew Parris in Saturday's Times.
    Explains why there was a big swing away from Labour in places like Nuneaton & Bedworth, but they did well in David Cameron's former constituency.
    Is this Leave related, or is it Corbyn's Russia 'links' and weakness on national security?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2018
    Tissue_Price said:

    twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    That should worry the Tories...Remember the GE, all those vox pops of blokes in working men's clubs saying arrright I ain't voting for that commie, I never voted Tory, but that May seems ok to us....and when they got down the polling station, it was tick in the red column as per usual.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2018
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Seems like the working class are less susceptible to Corbo's campaign which was based on "xenophobic lies" - only the London based A-B remainer types that lapped it up.

  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    TGOHF said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Seems like the working class are less susceptible to Corbo's campaign which was based on "xenophobic lies" - only the London based A-B remainer types that lapped it up.

    And hardcore rightwing loyalist fans of 'The Rangers'.

    Who knew?
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    That should worry the Tories...Remember the GE, all those vox pops of blokes in working men's clubs saying arrright I ain't voting for that commie, I never voted Tory, but that May seems ok to us....and when they got down the polling station, it was tick in the red column as per usual.
    One's hand simply moves over the paper and forms a cross with the pen. It is a strange phenomenon indeed, but it is real.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Anazina said:

    TGOHF said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Seems like the working class are less susceptible to Corbo's campaign which was based on "xenophobic lies" - only the London based A-B remainer types that lapped it up.

    And hardcore rightwing loyalist fans of 'The Rangers'.

    Who knew?
    You discriminate against people based on which sports team they support ?

    Ugh.

  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    Gardenwalker said:

    Fenster said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Fenster said:

    Corbyn's vote holding up well among voters who aren't old enough to remember socialism.

    I know that's a slightly tawdry comment, but there is something in it.

    I wonder how many wide-eyed youths would support Corbyn's brand of economics if they'd actually experienced it.

    Was that Heath,or Wilson you were referring to ?
    Both. And early Thatcher. Wasn't the top rate of tax 78% for her first couple of years? I'm not necessarily talking about party-politics, I'm talking about experiencing a system of being a relatively poor country, with a dysfunctional economy, high inflation, high tax and spend. I grew up in the early 80s and people were absolutely piss-poor round here compared to how they are now. And I mean piss-poor. People in my street stole coal because they couldn't afford it. The boys I coach now (aged 17-19), even the ones from the poorer areas, TO A MAN all have iphones, cool clothes, money to drink with, great social lives and cars.

    That didn't happen by accident.
    Single market?
    Nope. Cutting taxes and breaking the power of the unions.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited May 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the basis of this new yougov poll the Tories might get a very small majority at the next general election helped by some movement from Labour to the LDs

    You can dream on , with your current leader.

    She has asked the audience .

    Called a friend .

    Gone 50 -50.

    Now we need an answer , or bugger off and let someone else , have a go.
    Is that Iain Duncan Smith coughing in the audience?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,918
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    So, just let me make sure I have got this right:

    When Obama removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a bad deal.
    When Trump removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a good deal.
    Obama's deal was weak. It remains to be seen if Trump will capitulate in the same way with NK.
    But did Iran stop their nuclear development? I watched the Netanyahu piece, and all the stuff in their was historic - there was nothing about whether they had continued.

    I had lunch with a friend of Iranian origin today, and his view was that if reimposing sanctions brought down the Iranian regime, it would be a price well worth paying. However, his view is that by doing it in the way they have, he's managed to unite much of Iran against the West again. His other view is that sanctions on Iran aren't that potent, because Iran can always sell its oil abroad.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    It's like the Junior Common Room of Tory Central Office in here most nights, tonight being a prime example. The juvenile hubris is palpable.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Anazina said:

    It's like the Junior Common Room of Tory Central Office in here most nights, tonight being a prime example. The juvenile hubris is palpable.

    This is a far more important issue than Corbyn's plunging popularity with huge sections of the country.

    Please carry on with this focus.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,918
    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,789
    edited May 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041

    Maybe Theresa is just trying to run down the clock to No Deal?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,918
    edited May 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Coincides with Mike’s holiday.

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/994587349718847489?s=21

    So, just let me make sure I have got this right:

    When Obama removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a bad deal.
    When Trump removes sanctions in return for no more nuclear weapons testing, that's a good deal.
    Obama's deal was weak. It remains to be seen if Trump will capitulate in the same way with NK.
    But did Iran stop their nuclear development? I watched the Netanyahu piece, and all the stuff in their was historic - there was nothing about whether they had continued.

    I had lunch with a friend of Iranian origin today, and his view was that if reimposing sanctions brought down the Iranian regime, it would be a price well worth paying. However, his view is that by doing it in the way they have, he's managed to unite much of Iran against the West again. His other view is that sanctions on Iran aren't that potent, because Iran can always sell its oil abroad.
    Trouble is that bringing down the current Iranian regime - which is relatively moderate - will be in favour of the far more hard line contenders who are waiting in the wings. The US is not the only place where there has been a fierce debate about whether or not the Iran deal is a good one. Trump may well have just won that argument for the hardliners in Tehran.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    It's like the Junior Common Room of Tory Central Office in here most nights, tonight being a prime example. The juvenile hubris is palpable.

    This is a far more important issue than Corbyn's plunging popularity with huge sections of the country.

    Please carry on with this focus.

    Chortle. No doubt we can blame it on 'papism', like most things eh?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,099
    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Best PM

    May / Corbyn / Not Sure

    Remain: 26 / 38 / 36
    Leave: 60 / 13 / 27

    Which is darkly funny as Corbyn is almost certainly more in favour of Brexit than May is.....

    Even funnier given how anti Brexit that 18-24 cohort are.....hur hur hur, thinking Brexit's Bessy Mate is the Messiah.....

    They're young. They'll learn.
    Yes but aCorbyn Brexit is better than a Tory Brexit for the workers.
    Corbyn, the creature of Len McCluskey and inhabitant of divers mansions who attended a boarding school and appoints his old friends and indeed former lovers to key positions is on the side of the workers?

    Well, it's a view.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Anazina said:

    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    It's like the Junior Common Room of Tory Central Office in here most nights, tonight being a prime example. The juvenile hubris is palpable.

    This is a far more important issue than Corbyn's plunging popularity with huge sections of the country.

    Please carry on with this focus.

    Chortle. No doubt we can blame it on 'papism', like most things eh?
    You seem obsessed with sports teams and religions and making those with a preference towards one or the other into a mono-culture.

    If you view life through ridiculous sweeping generalisations that all Watford fans like Elton John's music or all Buddhists like spicy food you'll end up being seen as a judgemental twat.


  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    Really important thread on values and voters. UKIP or something of its like, aint done yet I suspect. Sounds like the left are just not listening.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/994586993651847168
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041

    Maybe Theresa is just trying to run down the clock to No Deal?
    ... and then what? Ride out the chaos? Enjoy herself marshalling national guard style policing to control the food riots?
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    Sean_F said:

    williamglenn said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Very much the wrong sort of supporters, according to Matthew Parris in Saturday's Times.
    C2DEs obviously like the sound of Brexit betrayal.
    It's probably Corbyn's attitude towards defence and security that's alienated them.
    They're probably influenced more by what they read in the Sun or the Mail that morning but haven't given it much thought.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    It's like the Junior Common Room of Tory Central Office in here most nights, tonight being a prime example. The juvenile hubris is palpable.

    This is a far more important issue than Corbyn's plunging popularity with huge sections of the country.

    Please carry on with this focus.

    Chortle. No doubt we can blame it on 'papism', like most things eh?
    You seem obsessed with sports teams and religions and making those with a preference towards one or the other into a mono-culture.

    If you view life through ridiculous sweeping generalisations that all Watford fans like Elton John's music or all Buddhists like spicy food you'll end up being seen as a judgemental twat.


    Is this guy you?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmGjiokfQ2A
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    I think Dems will Gain Tennessee and Arizona and likely Nevada in the Senate to give them a majority. The House is tricky because it is so gerrymandered to favour GOP but they will probably Gain it as well going by the huge turnout gaps in PA 18 and big switches to dems in Arizona special elections.

    The mid west/rust belt.....whilst trending Republican Dems that are not Hillary still do much better here with white voters then nationally so Dems should win most of the Senate races here as well. Many trump voters voted for Dems down ballot in 2016.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,918
    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041

    May needs to decide what she wants and go shit-or-bust in front of her cabinet, her party and parliament. If any of them say No, time for her to resign. If she gets them all in line, then she might for once look Prime Ministerial.
    If any of them say No, time for her to fire them. Then she might for once look Prime Ministerial.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Anazina said:

    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    TGOHF said:

    Anazina said:

    It's like the Junior Common Room of Tory Central Office in here most nights, tonight being a prime example. The juvenile hubris is palpable.

    This is a far more important issue than Corbyn's plunging popularity with huge sections of the country.

    Please carry on with this focus.

    Chortle. No doubt we can blame it on 'papism', like most things eh?
    You seem obsessed with sports teams and religions and making those with a preference towards one or the other into a mono-culture.

    If you view life through ridiculous sweeping generalisations that all Watford fans like Elton John's music or all Buddhists like spicy food you'll end up being seen as a judgemental twat.


    Is this guy you?
    You are an MI5 plant and I claim my free butcher's apron.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited May 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.

    On current polls it would be tied, the Democrats would pick up Nevada and Arizona but lose Montana, Pence would thus have the casting vote

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    rottenborough said:

    Really important thread on values and voters. UKIP or something of its like, aint done yet I suspect. Sounds like the left are just not listening.

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/994586993651847168

    That depends, Trudeau and Macron have shown how to win from the liberal left
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Anazina said:

    It's like the Junior Common Room of Tory Central Office in here most nights, tonight being a prime example. The juvenile hubris is palpable.

    There are more diehard Remainers on here complaining about Brexit than diehard May fans even if there are few fans of Corbyn either
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the basis of this new yougov poll the Tories might get a very small majority at the next general election helped by some movement from Labour to the LDs

    You can dream on , with your current leader.

    She has asked the audience .

    Called a friend .

    Gone 50 -50.

    Now we need an answer , or bugger off and let someone else , have a go.
    May was just 8 seats short of a majority last time, Corbyn 64 seats short
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited May 2018
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.

    On current polls it would be tied, the Democrats would pick up Nevada and Arizona but lose Montana, Pence would thus have the casting vote

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    Some polls also have the Democrats ahead in Tennessee which would give them a Senate majority along with a likely House majority.

    If so Trump would face the worst mid-term thumping in his first term since Bill Clinton in 1994, seeing his party lose both Chambers of Congress in one set of mid-terms
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the basis of this new yougov poll the Tories might get a very small majority at the next general election helped by some movement from Labour to the LDs

    You can dream on , with your current leader.

    She has asked the audience .

    Called a friend .

    Gone 50 -50.

    Now we need an answer , or bugger off and let someone else , have a go.
    May was just 8 seats short of a majority last time, Corbyn 64 seats short
    True , on reflection , she deserves another chance , to win a majority .

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    edited May 2018
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    On the basis of this new yougov poll the Tories might get a very small majority at the next general election helped by some movement from Labour to the LDs

    You can dream on , with your current leader.

    She has asked the audience .

    Called a friend .

    Gone 50 -50.

    Now we need an answer , or bugger off and let someone else , have a go.
    May was just 8 seats short of a majority last time, Corbyn 64 seats short
    True , on reflection , she deserves another chance , to win a majority .

    Certainly on current polling only Ruth Davidson would give the Tories a better chance of a majority than May.

    Merkel fell well short of achieving a majority for her Coalition with the FDP at her first attempt in 2005 but won a majority for her Coalition in 2009, she is also a similar personality to May
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,918
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.

    On current polls it would be tied, the Democrats would pick up Nevada and Arizona but lose Montana, Pence would thus have the casting vote

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    I think the Democrats will lose their Dakota senator too.
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    nunuone said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    I think Dems will Gain Tennessee and Arizona and likely Nevada in the Senate to give them a majority. The House is tricky because it is so gerrymandered to favour GOP but they will probably Gain it as well going by the huge turnout gaps in PA 18 and big switches to dems in Arizona special elections.

    The mid west/rust belt.....whilst trending Republican Dems that are not Hillary still do much better here with white voters then nationally so Dems should win most of the Senate races here as well. Many trump voters voted for Dems down ballot in 2016.
    This is a really interesting article on how Obama's coalition included many more white voters without Degrees then is believed and how the national picture was starkly different. With Obama seeing big improvements among white voters in the Mid west/North (except PA) but actually going backwards in the South compared to Kerry's performance.

    To me it suggests the right Dem candidates can make inroads to wwc voters in those states, even though Obama wasn't exactly a conventional candidate to appeal to those voters.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html
  • Options
    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.
    Dems are leading in TN.

    https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-polls/tennessee/
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.

    On current polls it would be tied, the Democrats would pick up Nevada and Arizona but lose Montana, Pence would thus have the casting vote

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    Some polls also have the Democrats ahead in Tennessee which would give them a Senate majority along with a likely House majority.

    If so Trump would face the worst mid-term thumping in his first term since Bill Clinton in 1994, seeing his party lose both Chambers of Congress in one set of mid-terms
    West Virginia is looking a bit more iffy for the Dems as the GOP electorate chose not to shot themselves in the foot and did not elect the expected winner after all, a coal mine owner with the deaths of 20+ miners on his watch.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.

    On current polls it would be tied, the Democrats would pick up Nevada and Arizona but lose Montana, Pence would thus have the casting vote

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    Some polls also have the Democrats ahead in Tennessee which would give them a Senate majority along with a likely House majority.

    If so Trump would face the worst mid-term thumping in his first term since Bill Clinton in 1994, seeing his party lose both Chambers of Congress in one set of mid-terms
    West Virginia is looking a bit more iffy for the Dems as the GOP electorate chose not to shot themselves in the foot and did not elect the expected winner after all, a coal mine owner with the deaths of 20+ miners on his watch.
    He was never the expected winner
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    SandyRentool said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041

    May needs to decide what she wants and go shit-or-bust in front of her cabinet, her party and parliament. If any of them say No, time for her to resign. If she gets them all in line, then she might for once look Prime Ministerial.
    How long until we see the same headline without the word “Cabinet”?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.

    On current polls it would be tied, the Democrats would pick up Nevada and Arizona but lose Montana, Pence would thus have the casting vote

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    I think the Democrats will lose their Dakota senator too.
    The Democratic incumbent, Heidi Heitkemp, leads the latest North Dakota poll from Travis 43% to 40% but it is close

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_North_Dakota,_2018
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.

    On current polls it would be tied, the Democrats would pick up Nevada and Arizona but lose Montana, Pence would thus have the casting vote

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    Some polls also have the Democrats ahead in Tennessee which would give them a Senate majority along with a likely House majority.

    If so Trump would face the worst mid-term thumping in his first term since Bill Clinton in 1994, seeing his party lose both Chambers of Congress in one set of mid-terms
    West Virginia is looking a bit more iffy for the Dems as the GOP electorate chose not to shot themselves in the foot and did not elect the expected winner after all, a coal mine owner with the deaths of 20+ miners on his watch.
    Manchin still leads Morrissey 45% to 38% on the latest poll

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    The flipside of gerrymandering:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890
    “because of the way the maps have been drawn and the environment that Republicans are facing, you have a whole bunch of Republicans who have never been in a competitive race in their life, who are running [in one] right now.”

    The number of seats markets for November could be rather volatile...

    The second derivative of this is that the Democrats are going to win control of state senates for the same reason. It will then be Democrats doing the gerrymandering.
    The Democrats will have to have a serious rethink if the GOP holds both the Senate and House later this year.
    The Republicans will hold the Senate, unless something truly astonishing happens.

    On current polls it would be tied, the Democrats would pick up Nevada and Arizona but lose Montana, Pence would thus have the casting vote

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
    Some polls also have the Democrats ahead in Tennessee which would give them a Senate majority along with a likely House majority.

    If so Trump would face the worst mid-term thumping in his first term since Bill Clinton in 1994, seeing his party lose both Chambers of Congress in one set of mid-terms
    West Virginia is looking a bit more iffy for the Dems as the GOP electorate chose not to shot themselves in the foot and did not elect the expected winner after all, a coal mine owner with the deaths of 20+ miners on his watch.
    Manchin still leads Morrissey 45% to 38% on the latest poll

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018
    That's pretty much the definition of iffy
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/994609320275927041

    I'm nostalgic for the comments we used to get here saying that the UK has a totally clear, coherent and consistent negotiating position.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    David_Evershed said:

    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Very much the wrong sort of supporters, according to Matthew Parris in Saturday's Times.

    Because they are Brexit supporters?
    And lower class as well. Parris can tolerate upper middle class Brexiters, but thinks they're "window dressing" for the more militant lower classes.

    I don't know how he tolerated being MP for West Derbyshire for 7 years.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Best PM

    May / Corbyn / Not Sure

    Remain: 26 / 38 / 36
    Leave: 60 / 13 / 27

    Which is darkly funny as Corbyn is almost certainly more in favour of Brexit than May is.....

    Even funnier given how anti Brexit that 18-24 cohort are.....hur hur hur, thinking Brexit's Bessy Mate is the Messiah.....

    They're young. They'll learn.
    Yes but aCorbyn Brexit is better than a Tory Brexit for the workers.
    Corbyn, the creature of Len McCluskey and inhabitant of divers mansions who attended a boarding school and appoints his old friends and indeed former lovers to key positions is on the side of the workers?

    Well, it's a view.
    To be fair, he didn't have very much choice after so many others refused Shadow Cabinet posts.

    Good evening, everyone.
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