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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924

    Charles said:

    philiph said:

    RobD said:

    RIP Dame Tessa Jowell

    Sad news. RIP.
    It is indeed. Must be very difficult decision to make on being public about a terminal illness - last year we lost a few who had given no inkling that they were not long for this earth (Alan Rickman, Victoria Wood).
    I think we have an unhealthy obsession with privacy of our wellbeing. Based on no facts at all I feel the stress of illness is lessened and generally the recovery is aided by sharing our troubles.

    Secrecy and privacy are over rated and come with many negative side effects and unintended consequences.
    There’s a difference between sharing with friends and family and sharing with the world
    But that should be an entirely personal decision and one we should support and certainly not criticise. We are far too sensitive about the whole subject of end of life which is rather strange considering it is the one thing that unites us all. The attitude in this country is extremely unhealthy and akin to the way we once viewed the other end of the process - childbirth - where women went into confinement for the duration.

    A more open attitude to death, to its prelude and to its consequences would, I feel, do a great deal to help the mental well being of both individuals and society as a whole.
    My family are beginning to ask me what arrangements I would like for my funeral, now I’m (just) in my ninth decade. And who should they contact and so on.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    This video busts many myths about the Democrats losing the south for a generation in 1968. "The switch" was much slower then people think. I wonder if the class gap narrowing for the bases of Labour and Tories will also be as protracted or will things go back to normal after Brexit?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiprVX4os2Y
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    No great understanding of what drove the referendum result there then.....
    Immigration ?
    For many. But I presume the point was that the public showed they were willing to take some economic hit in order to Brexit, since it was made very clear there would be some (granted, some will just not have believed that), therefore putting only economics first is not automatically as popular as she thinks.

    The question is how much cost for Brexit is too much. I don't regard any price to be worth paying.
    The public absolutely did not show willingness to take an economic hit for Brexit. They were willing to get an extra £350 million a week for the NHS thanks to the "Brexit dividend". The Germans would sell us their cars and in any case who cares about declining Europe when you can be "Global Britain". To say otherwise was "Project Fear"
    You do the public a disservice. I said some would have disbelieved warnings of economic hits. But if you are going to tell me that everything remain said about economic hits was ignored, then I would say you are insulting a large proportion of the British public, as well as saying the remain campaign was completely useless, which is improbable. People heard both sides. They heard there would be an economic hit. Are you telling me 17 million people did not believe there would be any hit? I find that very hard to believe.
    Sorry, I should have said the LEAVE voting public acted in the belief that Brexit would at least result in no economic damage. About 90% in opinion polls at the time IIRC. Most thought that Brexit would actually boost the economy. They substantially still thought the same a few months ago, when I last looked, in the face of evidence to the contrary.

    For Remainers, the reverse was true. They almost all believed there would be an economic hit.
    Leavers were probably substantially correct, as they were disproportionally retired or on other forms of government income. In personal terms as opposed to national ones they are substantially protected. Obviously some, such as the Sunderland autoworkers are more likely to be personally affected, but they are a smaller proportion of the Leave vote.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited May 2018
    Part of the reason why Trump is able to tear up the Iran deal is he has a GOP Congress behind him in control of both the House and Senate.

    If the Democrats gain control of Congress in November and particularly the Senate which has a role in ratifying overseas Treaties Trump may be forced to think again.

    Interestingly US public opinion seems to be behind keeping the Iran deal. One CNN poll earlier this month found 69% of Americans wanted to keep the Iran deal but 51% of Republicans were opposed

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/08/politics/poll-iran-agreement/index.html
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    No great understanding of what drove the referendum result there then.....
    Immigration ?
    For many. But I presume the point was that the public showed they were willing to take some economic hit in order to Brexit, since it was made very clear there would be some (granted, some will just not have believed that), therefore putting only economics first is not automatically as popular as she thinks.

    The question is how much cost for Brexit is too much. I don't regard any price to be worth paying.
    The public absolutely did not show willingness to take an economic hit for Brexit. They were willing to get an extra £350 million a week for the NHS thanks to the "Brexit dividend". The Germans would sell us their cars and in any case who cares about declining Europe when you can be "Global Britain". To say otherwise was "Project Fear"
    You do the public a disservice. I said some would have disbelieved warnings of economic hits. But if you are going to tell me that everything remain said about economic hits was ignored, then I would say you are insulting a large proportion of the British public, as well as saying the remain campaign was completely useless, which is improbable. People heard both sides. They heard there would be an economic hit. Are you telling me 17 million people did not believe there would be any hit? I find that very hard to believe.
    Sorry, I should have said the LEAVE voting public acted in the belief that Brexit would at least result in no economic damage. About 90% in opinion polls at the time IIRC. Most thought that Brexit would actually boost the economy. They substantially still thought the same a few months ago, when I last looked, in the face of evidence to the contrary.

    For Remainers, the reverse was true. They almost all believed there would be an economic hit.
    I think that many Leavers acknowledged the possibility of some short term disruption on Brexit but were quite sanguine about its scale. They were right to be so. Both sides have massively overstated the impact of Brexit for good or ill. Our economy will be influenced by many more important factors over the next 20 years. What we do to regain energy independence will be one of them.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    This is a pitch to hard Leavers restating the red lines May set out in her Lancaster House speech end which she substantially gave away last December.

    If she says, "You can trust me to deliver.", clearly that group doesn't trust her to deliver.

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.
    Strikes me that May could have just written "nothing has changed" on her Facebook page and saved us all the trouble of reading the rest of the cake and unicorns nonsense.
    Yup. The takeaway is that, whatever their beliefs about Brexit, no-one believes a word Theresa May says.
    In particular, our E27 negotiators seem to no longer believe her. A fairly fundamental flaw in the negotiations.
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    nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    HYUFD said:

    Part of the reason why Trump is able to tear up the Iran deal is he has a GOP Congress behind him in control of both the House and Senate.

    If the Democrats gain control of Congress in November and particularly the Senate which has a role in ratifying overseas Treaties Trump may be forced to think again.

    Interestingly US public opinion seems to be behind keeping the Iran deal

    It's interesting. Public opinion is very fickle. When the Iran deal was being negotiated it was very unpopular.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Also sad news about the death of Tessa Jowell
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131
    nunuone said:

    HYUFD said:

    Part of the reason why Trump is able to tear up the Iran deal is he has a GOP Congress behind him in control of both the House and Senate.

    If the Democrats gain control of Congress in November and particularly the Senate which has a role in ratifying overseas Treaties Trump may be forced to think again.

    Interestingly US public opinion seems to be behind keeping the Iran deal

    It's interesting. Public opinion is very fickle. When the Iran deal was being negotiated it was very unpopular.
    My guess is that the vast majority of Americans simply have no interest in becoming embroiled in further ME conflict. Given that there is no longer the strategic imperative of oil this makes complete sense.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    nunuone said:

    HYUFD said:

    Part of the reason why Trump is able to tear up the Iran deal is he has a GOP Congress behind him in control of both the House and Senate.

    If the Democrats gain control of Congress in November and particularly the Senate which has a role in ratifying overseas Treaties Trump may be forced to think again.

    Interestingly US public opinion seems to be behind keeping the Iran deal

    It's interesting. Public opinion is very fickle. When the Iran deal was being negotiated it was very unpopular.
    I suppose that even in the USA, no one is keen on further mid East wars.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    From the Cook Political report (strongly recommend a read)

    "Last fall, when Election Day was a year out, President Trump’s job-approval-rating averages seemed mired in the high 30s, with Republicans behind on the generic congressional ballot test by as much as a dozen points.

    Over the past 90 days, the president’s approval ratings have ticked up to the low-to-mid 40s... This is the first time in Trump’s presidency that his Gallup approval rating of 42 percent has reached a comparabl[y poor] level to any president in modern times.

    In the generic-ballot test, the GOP is now typically behind by mid-to-high single digits. As with Trump’s approval rating, Republicans are still in an alarming position on that front, but better than they were."

    https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/glimmers-hope-gop
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    Am loathe to talk about Eurovision - some people get very animated by it - but it is fun to watch with friends and how everyone has a different view. I liked Albania, Austria and the UK - fair play to Surie who didn't flinch amidst the nonsense. I see there is a bit of a groundswell of support for her to have another go next year in Jerusalem where hopefully security will be a bit tighter.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited May 2018

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    That would be the Ineos whose owner is now the richest man in the UK?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    I am friends with some of the counsel on each side. The Scottish government’s hostility to fracking was palpable. They claimed that it was not economically viable, that Ineos had already bought ships to bring gas from the US and that no one wanted to do it anyway. They are playing politics with the largest industrial site in Scotland. It’s a disgrace and strategically stupid.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    David Miliband to share a platform with Sir Nick Clegg and Nicky Morgan calling for soft Brexit tomorrow

    https://news.sky.com/story/david-miliband-joins-nick-clegg-and-nicky-morgan-in-call-for-soft-brexit-11370115
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    nunuone said:

    HYUFD said:

    Part of the reason why Trump is able to tear up the Iran deal is he has a GOP Congress behind him in control of both the House and Senate.

    If the Democrats gain control of Congress in November and particularly the Senate which has a role in ratifying overseas Treaties Trump may be forced to think again.

    Interestingly US public opinion seems to be behind keeping the Iran deal

    It's interesting. Public opinion is very fickle. When the Iran deal was being negotiated it was very unpopular.
    Currently almost any policy associated with Trump is toxic for a majority of Americans
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    FF43 said:

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.

    Her own personal red line is that she will not be the one to say it cannot work. She will pile the pressure on Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Baker, Braverman, Leadsom, et al, until one of them cracks and admits that "the Brexit people voted for" doesn't exist.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Booth, loath*. With an e, it means to hate, without an e, it refers to be reluctant.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    edited May 2018

    FF43 said:

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.

    Her own personal red line is that she will not be the one to say it cannot work. She will pile the pressure on Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Baker, Braverman, Leadsom, et al, until one of them cracks and admits that "the Brexit people voted for" doesn't exist.
    Why would any of them do that? Why not just keep up the pretence so they can say it would have worked, but she bollocksed it up?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    I am friends with some of the counsel on each side. The Scottish government’s hostility to fracking was palpable. They claimed that it was not economically viable, that Ineos had already bought ships to bring gas from the US and that no one wanted to do it anyway. They are playing politics with the largest industrial site in Scotland. It’s a disgrace and strategically stupid.
    Though people are free to vote against their economic interest, as we have seen multiple times in recent years.

    Pro-frackers need to respect the will of the people: https://stv.tv/news/politics/1386125-nine-in-ten-scots-support-fracking-ban-poll-suggests/
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    FF43 said:

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.

    Her own personal red line is that she will not be the one to say it cannot work. She will pile the pressure on Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Baker, Braverman, Leadsom, et al, until one of them cracks and admits that "the Brexit people voted for" doesn't exist.
    Why would any of them do that? Why not just keep up the pretence so they can say it would have worked, but she bollocksed it up?
    As long as they're talking in the past tense about it, it amounts to the same thing with some face-saving.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919

    FF43 said:

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.

    Her own personal red line is that she will not be the one to say it cannot work. She will pile the pressure on Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Baker, Braverman, Leadsom, et al, until one of them cracks and admits that "the Brexit people voted for" doesn't exist.
    More la-la land from Mr Glenn
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    That would be the Ineos whose owner is now the richest man in the UK?
    Yes -- and perhaps £21 billion will be enough to compensate for any adverse seismic activity should things go pear-shaped so this will not be the old story of nationalising the risk but privatising the profits.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    One could say the same for just about any election.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    FF43 said:

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.

    Her own personal red line is that she will not be the one to say it cannot work. She will pile the pressure on Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Baker, Braverman, Leadsom, et al, until one of them cracks and admits that "the Brexit people voted for" doesn't exist.
    Why would any of them do that? Why not just keep up the pretence so they can say it would have worked, but she bollocksed it up?
    As long as they're talking in the past tense about it, it amounts to the same thing with some face-saving.
    This ongoing pretense from pro-EU ideologues that the Gove--Davis position isn't feasible is ridiculous. There are more than a hundred countries in the world who have no freedom of movement, no single market and no customs union with anyone else. Some, like Singapore and Canada, are highly successful.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    HYUFD said:

    David Miliband to share a platform with Sir Nick Clegg and Nicky Morgan calling for soft Brexit tomorrow

    https://news.sky.com/story/david-miliband-joins-nick-clegg-and-nicky-morgan-in-call-for-soft-brexit-11370115

    To be fair they aren't calling for a 'Soft' Brexit just opposing 'Hard' Brexit. As much as establishment people bemoan populists for focusing on what they are against not what they are FOR, the same 'moderates' seem to be doing the same thing themselves.

    How do you like your Brexit?

    Hard?
    Soft?
    Fast?
    Slow?

    Or how about hard and fast or hard and slow?

    The trouble now is that even someone like me is losing interest.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    surby said:

    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    surby said:
    I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....

    I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.

    An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
    She was probably right that she needed a working majority for her type of Brexit, but the GE did not deliver one and if, a big if, polls are correct, it wouldn't with a new one either, for anyone. So what benefit to the nation for a GE? Labour are also split on the issue do if they gained power there's no clear direction, and certainly not if there needs to be a coalition.

    May doesn't seem to have the votes for what she wants to do. Nor, it woukd seem, do her ERG opponents. Unless she finds something labour can back and consensus is reached, which is not likely, we're in stalemate. And unless labour switch to remain, I don't know how that stalemate is overcome.
    Labour is gradually moving to "a Single Market" through salami sliced announcements. Corbyn, of course, would be the last person to publicly do so "reluctantly". Just like his conversion to "a Customs Union".
    The single market means free movement and Corbyn will not back that without potentially gifting Labour Leave voters to the Tories or seeing them stay at home at the next general election or losing control of his economic policy to the ECJ
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Still no PB comments when using Internet Explorer. Had to switch to Mozilla Firefox to post this message.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    No great understanding of what drove the referendum result there then.....
    Immigration ?
    For many. But I presume the point was that the public showed they were willing to take some economic hit in order to Brexit, since it was made very clear there would be some (granted, some will just not have believed that), therefore putting only economics first is not automatically as popular as she thinks.

    The question is how much cost for Brexit is too much. I don't regard any price to be worth paying.
    The public absolutely did not show willingness to take an economic hit for Brexit. They were willing to get an extra £350 million a week for the NHS thanks to the "Brexit dividend". The Germans would sell us their cars and in any case who cares about declining Europe when you can be "Global Britain". To say otherwise was "Project Fear"
    You do the public a disservice. I said some would have disbelieved warnings of economic hits. But if you are going to tell me that everything remain said about economic hits was ignored, then I would say you are insulting a large proportion of the British public, as well as saying the remain campaign was completely useless, which is improbable. People heard both sides. They heard there would be an economic hit. Are you telling me 17 million people did not believe there would be any hit? I find that very hard to believe.
    Sorry, I should have said the LEAVE voting public acted in the belief that Brexit would at least result in no economic damage. About 90% in opinion polls at the time IIRC. Most thought that Brexit would actually boost the economy. They substantially still thought the same a few months ago, when I last looked, in the face of evidence to the contrary.

    For Remainers, the reverse was true. They almost all believed there would be an economic hit.
    Leavers were probably substantially correct, as they were disproportionally retired or on other forms of government income. In personal terms as opposed to national ones they are substantially protected. Obviously some, such as the Sunderland autoworkers are more likely to be personally affected, but they are a smaller proportion of the Leave vote.
    LOL. This from someone who works in the public sector and is entirely funded by taxpayer's money.

    There are plenty of us who do not have that benefit and protection and who voted for Brexit because it was the right thing to do irrespective of what effect it might have on our personal finances
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    Part of the reason why Trump is able to tear up the Iran deal is he has a GOP Congress behind him in control of both the House and Senate.

    If the Democrats gain control of Congress in November and particularly the Senate which has a role in ratifying overseas Treaties Trump may be forced to think again.

    Interestingly US public opinion seems to be behind keeping the Iran deal. One CNN poll earlier this month found 69% of Americans wanted to keep the Iran deal but 51% of Republicans were opposed

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/08/politics/poll-iran-agreement/index.html

    One problem with tearing up deals in Trump's cavalier fashion is that one day he or the United States generally may want to make another one, in Korea, say.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    I am friends with some of the counsel on each side. The Scottish government’s hostility to fracking was palpable. They claimed that it was not economically viable, that Ineos had already bought ships to bring gas from the US and that no one wanted to do it anyway. They are playing politics with the largest industrial site in Scotland. It’s a disgrace and strategically stupid.
    Though people are free to vote against their economic interest, as we have seen multiple times in recent years.

    Pro-frackers need to respect the will of the people: https://stv.tv/news/politics/1386125-nine-in-ten-scots-support-fracking-ban-poll-suggests/
    Which they won’t find from a voodoo poll! Tut! Tut! I thought you knew better!
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    Elliot said:

    FF43 said:

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.

    Her own personal red line is that she will not be the one to say it cannot work. She will pile the pressure on Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Baker, Braverman, Leadsom, et al, until one of them cracks and admits that "the Brexit people voted for" doesn't exist.
    Why would any of them do that? Why not just keep up the pretence so they can say it would have worked, but she bollocksed it up?
    As long as they're talking in the past tense about it, it amounts to the same thing with some face-saving.
    This ongoing pretense from pro-EU ideologues that the Gove--Davis position isn't feasible is ridiculous. There are more than a hundred countries in the world who have no freedom of movement, no single market and no customs union with anyone else. Some, like Singapore and Canada, are highly successful.
    How many of them are guaranteeing that part of their territory have no infrastructure or checks on a land border with the EU?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    surby said:

    surby said:
    I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....

    I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.

    An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
    On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Am loathe to talk about Eurovision - some people get very animated by it - but it is fun to watch with friends and how everyone has a different view. I liked Albania, Austria and the UK - fair play to Surie who didn't flinch amidst the nonsense. I see there is a bit of a groundswell of support for her to have another go next year in Jerusalem where hopefully security will be a bit tighter.

    It has got too self-referential; with every act and every commentator relentlessly sending it up, there's no serious core to parody, so none of the attempted self-parody works.

    Has it ever produced one decent song? The only ones I can think of are Puppet on a String ("I hated it from the very first oompah to the final bang on the big bass drum. I was instinctively repelled by its sexist drivel and cuckoo-clock tune" - Sandie Shaw) and Waterloo which did its job of launching Abba but is a toe-curling embarrassment.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    No great understanding of what drove the referendum result there then.....
    Immigration ?
    The question is how much cost for Brexit is too much. I don't regard any price to be worth paying.
    The public absolutely did not show willingness to take an economic hit for Brexit. They were willing to get an extra £350 million a week for the NHS thanks to the "Brexit dividend". The Germans would sell us their cars and in any case who cares about declining Europe when you can be "Global Britain". To say otherwise was "Project Fear"
    You do the public a disservice. I said some would have disbelieved warnings of economic hits. But if you are going to tell me that everything remain said about economic hits was ignored, then I would say you are insulting a large proportion of the British public, as well as saying the remain campaign was completely useless, which is improbable. People heard both sides. They heard there would be an economic hit. Are you telling me 17 million people did not believe there would be any hit? I find that very hard to believe.
    Sorry, I should have said the LEAVE voting public acted in the belief that Brexit would at least result in no economic damage. About 90% in opinion polls at the time IIRC. Most thought that Brexit would actually boost the economy. They substantially still thought the same a few months ago, when I last looked, in the face of evidence to the contrary.

    For Remainers, the reverse was true. They almost all believed there would be an economic hit.
    I think that many Leavers acknowledged the possibility of some short term disruption on Brexit but were quite sanguine about its scale. They were right to be so. Both sides have massively overstated the impact of Brexit for good or ill. Our economy will be influenced by many more important factors over the next 20 years. What we do to regain energy independence will be one of them.
    The economic impact of Brexit is likely to be mild in both the medium and the long term. So what matters are the social and political issues of immigration and federal union. Remainers know they are on the wrong side of public opinion by large margins on both of those, so don't want the conversation going back to them.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    FF43 said:

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.

    Her own personal red line is that she will not be the one to say it cannot work. She will pile the pressure on Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Baker, Braverman, Leadsom, et al, until one of them cracks and admits that "the Brexit people voted for" doesn't exist.
    Why would any of them do that? Why not just keep up the pretence so they can say it would have worked, but she bollocksed it up?
    As long as they're talking in the past tense about it, it amounts to the same thing with some face-saving.
    This ongoing pretense from pro-EU ideologues that the Gove--Davis position isn't feasible is ridiculous. There are more than a hundred countries in the world who have no freedom of movement, no single market and no customs union with anyone else. Some, like Singapore and Canada, are highly successful.
    How many of them are guaranteeing that part of their territory have no infrastructure or checks on a land border with the EU?
    None of them. Neither are we.
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Charles said:

    philiph said:

    RobD said:

    RIP Dame Tessa Jowell

    Sad news. RIP.
    It is indeed. Must be very difficult decision to make on being public about a terminal illness - last year we lost a few who had given no inkling that they were not long for this earth (Alan Rickman, Victoria Wood).
    I think we have an unhealthy obsession with privacy of our wellbeing. Based on no facts at all I feel the stress of illness is lessened and generally the recovery is aided by sharing our troubles.

    Secrecy and privacy are over rated and come with many negative side effects and unintended consequences.
    There’s a difference between sharing with friends and family and sharing with the world
    But that should be an entirely personal decision and one we should support and certainly not criticise. We are far too sensitive about the whole subject of end of life which is rather strange considering it is the one thing that unites us all. The attitude in this country is extremely unhealthy and akin to the way we once viewed the other end of the process - childbirth - where women went into confinement for the duration.

    A more open attitude to death, to its prelude and to its consequences would, I feel, do a great deal to help the mental well being of both individuals and society as a whole.
    Very true and well written.

    For many people , they never see death , as it is all conducted by professionals .

    In contrast to previous times , when there was much more family involvement.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981



    LOL. This from someone who works in the public sector and is entirely funded by taxpayer's money.

    There are plenty of us who do not have that benefit and protection and who voted for Brexit because it was the right thing to do irrespective of what effect it might have on our personal finances

    I loved that farmer on radio 4 who, on being hectored about voting Leave being likely to cost him money, said "That's not really the point - if I wanted to be rich I wouldn't have been a farmer in the first place".
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    I am friends with some of the counsel on each side. The Scottish government’s hostility to fracking was palpable. They claimed that it was not economically viable, that Ineos had already bought ships to bring gas from the US and that no one wanted to do it anyway. They are playing politics with the largest industrial site in Scotland. It’s a disgrace and strategically stupid.
    Though people are free to vote against their economic interest, as we have seen multiple times in recent years.

    Pro-frackers need to respect the will of the people: https://stv.tv/news/politics/1386125-nine-in-ten-scots-support-fracking-ban-poll-suggests/
    Which they won’t find from a voodoo poll! Tut! Tut! I thought you knew better!
    Though other polls show only 25% support for fracking.

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-think-scotland-should-or-should-not-start-extracting-shale-gas#line

    Pro-frackers need to convince the public first, and they seem not to be winning that one.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    HYUFD said:

    Also sad news about the death of Tessa Jowell

    Yes very sad to hear that this morning.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    surby said:
    I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....

    I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.

    An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
    On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
    Wait until you see her manifesto though...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    I am friends with some of the counsel on each side. The Scottish government’s hostility to fracking was palpable. They claimed that it was not economically viable, that Ineos had already bought ships to bring gas from the US and that no one wanted to do it anyway. They are playing politics with the largest industrial site in Scotland. It’s a disgrace and strategically stupid.
    Though people are free to vote against their economic interest, as we have seen multiple times in recent years...
    Indeed they are - but the governments the elect ought at least to be honest about what they are doing.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    edited May 2018
    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    FF43 said:

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.

    Her own personal red line is that she will not be the one to say it cannot work. She will pile the pressure on Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Baker, Braverman, Leadsom, et al, until one of them cracks and admits that "the Brexit people voted for" doesn't exist.
    Why would any of them do that? Why not just keep up the pretence so they can say it would have worked, but she bollocksed it up?
    As long as they're talking in the past tense about it, it amounts to the same thing with some face-saving.
    This ongoing pretense from pro-EU ideologues that the Gove--Davis position isn't feasible is ridiculous. There are more than a hundred countries in the world who have no freedom of movement, no single market and no customs union with anyone else. Some, like Singapore and Canada, are highly successful.
    How many of them are guaranteeing that part of their territory have no infrastructure or checks on a land border with the EU?
    None of them. Neither are we.
    Yes we are. Read the joint report.

    image
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    I am friends with some of the counsel on each side. The Scottish government’s hostility to fracking was palpable. They claimed that it was not economically viable, that Ineos had already bought ships to bring gas from the US and that no one wanted to do it anyway. They are playing politics with the largest industrial site in Scotland. It’s a disgrace and strategically stupid.
    Though people are free to vote against their economic interest, as we have seen multiple times in recent years.

    Pro-frackers need to respect the will of the people: https://stv.tv/news/politics/1386125-nine-in-ten-scots-support-fracking-ban-poll-suggests/
    Which they won’t find from a voodoo poll! Tut! Tut! I thought you knew better!
    Though other polls show only 25% support for fracking.

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-think-scotland-should-or-should-not-start-extracting-shale-gas#line

    Pro-frackers need to convince the public first, and they seem not to be winning that one.
    Until the people affected personally gain financially they will have no reason to support fracking.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    Mr. Booth, loath*. With an e, it means to hate, without an e, it refers to be reluctant.

    A point I’ve made before, Mr.D.
    We must keep plugging away.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Yorkcity said:

    Charles said:

    philiph said:

    RobD said:

    RIP Dame Tessa Jowell

    Sad news. RIP.
    It is indeed. Must be very difficult decision to make on being public about a terminal illness - last year we lost a few who had given no inkling that they were not long for this earth (Alan Rickman, Victoria Wood).
    I think we have an unhealthy obsession with privacy of our wellbeing. Based on no facts at all I feel the stress of illness is lessened and generally the recovery is aided by sharing our troubles.

    Secrecy and privacy are over rated and come with many negative side effects and unintended consequences.
    There’s a difference between sharing with friends and family and sharing with the world
    But that should be an entirely personal decision and one we should support and certainly not criticise. We are far too sensitive about the whole subject of end of life which is rather strange considering it is the one thing that unites us all. The attitude in this country is extremely unhealthy and akin to the way we once viewed the other end of the process - childbirth - where women went into confinement for the duration.

    A more open attitude to death, to its prelude and to its consequences would, I feel, do a great deal to help the mental well being of both individuals and society as a whole.
    Very true and well written.

    For many people , they never see death , as it is all conducted by professionals .

    In contrast to previous times , when there was much more family involvement.
    Death has become something which happens predominantly to the old.

    In earlier generations there would have been many more deaths throughout the average lifestyle and people would have become more used to dealing with it.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Scott_P said:
    Their programme was the most popular of all those on offer. That is a mandate. It has always been defined as such by the Salusbury convention.
  • Options
    CynosargesCynosarges Posts: 44
    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    No great understanding of what drove the referendum result there then.....
    The question is how much cost for Brexit is too much. I don't regard any price to be worth paying.
    The public absolutely did not show willingness to take an economic hit for Brexit. They were willing to get an extra £350 million a week for the NHS thanks to the "Brexit dividend". The Germans would sell us their cars and in any case who cares about declining Europe when you can be "Global Britain". To say otherwise was "Project Fear"
    You do the public a disservice. I said some would have disbelieved warnings of economic hits. But if you are going to tell me that everything remain said about economic hits was ignored, then I would say you are insulting a large proportion of the British public, as well as saying the remain campaign was completely useless, which is improbable. People heard both sides. They heard there would be an economic hit. Are you telling me 17 million people did not believe there would be any hit? I find that very hard to believe.
    Sorry, I should have said the LEAVE voting public acted in the belief that Brexit would at least result in no economic damage. About 90% in opinion polls at the time IIRC. Most thought that Brexit would actually boost the economy. They substantially still thought the same a few months ago, when I last looked, in the face of evidence to the contrary.

    For Remainers, the reverse was true. They almost all believed there would be an economic hit.
    A lot depends on your definitions of 'hit', and 'damage to the economy'. Consider Surby's 0.3% hit earlier on this thread. Let's assume that this is accompanied by a reduction of net migration by 200,000 p.a. (I'm not arguing about cause and effect, but taking a reduction which seems consistent with many leaver's and remainer's forecasts). The UK GDP might be 0.3% less, but the GDP per person would be unchanged. (65 million * 0.3% = 195 thousand) The distribution of the GDP might change, but no one has argued about this.

    So, remainer's could argue the country's GDP has taken a 'hit', while leavers argue that the population of the country have suffered no harm, hence no 'hit'. Indeed, they could argue the reduced stress on public transport, housing, etc would improve the people's quality of life.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    Another legacy of May’s time at the Home Office...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44093868
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    No great understanding of what drove the referendum result there then.....
    Immigration ?
    For many. But I presume the point was that the public showed they were willing to take some economic hit in order to Brexit, since it was made very clear there would be some (granted, some will just not have believed that), therefore putting only economics first is not automatically as popular as she thinks.

    The question is how much cost for Brexit is too much. I don't regard any price to be worth paying.
    The public absolutely did not show willingness to take an economic hit for Brexit. They were willing to get an extra £350 million a week for the NHS thanks to the "Brexit dividend". The Germans would sell us their cars and in any case who cares about declining Europe when you can be "Global Britain". To say otherwise was "Project Fear"
    You do the public a disservice. I said e.
    Sorry, I should have

    For Remainers, the reverse was true. They almost all believed there would be an economic hit.
    Leavers were probably substantially correct, as they were disproportionally retired or on other forms of government income. In personal terms as opposed to national ones they are substantially protected. Obviously some, such as the Sunderland autoworkers are more likely to be personally affected, but they are a smaller proportion of the Leave vote.
    LOL. This from someone who works in the public sector and is entirely funded by taxpayer's money.

    There are plenty of us who do not have that benefit and protection and who voted for Brexit because it was the right thing to do irrespective of what effect it might have on our personal finances
    I have some private income too, from my private and medico-legal work, but those are also protected from the economic effects of Brexit. It is why I am fairly sanguine about it, like most in service industries.The economic effects will only be indirect on me. The closest that I have come to being impacted is my brothers job being moved to the Netherlands, but he took redundancy instead.

    Indeed the effect of restricting immigration and thereby increasing demands on British doctors is giving me a good financial boost.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    DavidL said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    kle4 said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:
    No great understanding of what drove the referendum result there then.....
    Immigration ?
    For many. But I presume the point was that the public showed they were willing to take some economic hit in order to Brexit, since it was made very clear there would be some (granted, some will just not have believed that), therefore putting only economics first is not automatically as popular as she thinks.

    The question is how much cost for Brexit is too much. I don't regard any price to be worth paying.
    The public absolutely did not show willingness to take an economic hit for Brexit. They were willing to get an extra £350 million a week for the NHS thanks to the "Brexit dividend". The Germans would sell us their cars and in any case who cares about declining Europe when you can be "Global Britain". To say otherwise was "Project Fear"
    You do the public a disservice. I said some would have disbelieved warnings of economic hits. But if you are going to tell me that everything remain said about economic hits was ignored, then I would say you are insulting a large proportion of the British public, as well as saying the remain campaign was completely useless, which is improbable. People heard both sides. They heard there would be an economic hit. Are you telling me 17 million people did not believe there would be any hit? I find that very hard to believe.
    Sorry, I should have said the LEAVE voting public acted in the belief that Brexit would at least result in no economic damage. About 90% in opinion polls at the time IIRC. Most thought that Brexit would actually boost the economy. They substantially still thought the same a few months ago, when I last looked, in the face of evidence to the contrary.

    For Remainers, the reverse was true. They almost all believed there would be an economic hit.
    I think that many Leavers acknowledged the possibility of some short term disruption on Brexit but were quite sanguine about its scale. They were right to be so. Both sides have massively overstated the impact of Brexit for good or ill. Our economy will be influenced by many more important factors over the next 20 years. What we do to regain energy independence will be one of them.
    Disruption is not a bad thing when you have an economic system which is not working for an increasing proportion of the people.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Nigelb said:

    Another legacy of May’s time at the Home Office...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44093868

    Of EU membership you mean.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692

    HYUFD said:

    David Miliband to share a platform with Sir Nick Clegg and Nicky Morgan calling for soft Brexit tomorrow

    https://news.sky.com/story/david-miliband-joins-nick-clegg-and-nicky-morgan-in-call-for-soft-brexit-11370115

    To be fair they aren't calling for a 'Soft' Brexit just opposing 'Hard' Brexit. As much as establishment people bemoan populists for focusing on what they are against not what they are FOR, the same 'moderates' seem to be doing the same thing themselves.

    How do you like your Brexit?

    Hard?
    Soft?
    Fast?
    Slow?

    Or how about hard and fast or hard and slow?

    The trouble now is that even someone like me is losing interest.
    How about a workable Brexit? There isn't a Brexit that doesn't leave the UK in a worse position than it was before, but a damage limited Brexit is possible. I can see that would not be an interesting Brexit to any Leaver or Remainer, but we are where we are.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    FF43 said:

    There's nothing here for Remainers or the small but important group of pragmatic Leavers. Nor is there any message for the European Union that she is supposedly negotiating with, beyond the impression that she is completely unreliable.

    Her own personal red line is that she will not be the one to say it cannot work. She will pile the pressure on Johnson, Gove, Davis, Fox, Baker, Braverman, Leadsom, et al, until one of them cracks and admits that "the Brexit people voted for" doesn't exist.
    Why would any of them do that? Why not just keep up the pretence so they can say it would have worked, but she bollocksed it up?
    As long as they're talking in the past tense about it, it amounts to the same thing with some face-saving.
    This ongoing pretense from pro-EU ideologues that the Gove--Davis position isn't feasible is ridiculous. There are more than a hundred countries in the world who have no freedom of movement, no single market and no customs union with anyone else. Some, like Singapore and Canada, are highly successful.
    How many of them are guaranteeing that part of their territory have no infrastructure or checks on a land border with the EU?
    None of them. Neither are we.
    Yes we are. Read the joint report.

    image
    Physical being the operative word.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011

    The Irish have no right to demand part of a foreign country, even one with close ties, follows their regulation.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294
    Ratifying the Maastricht Treaty was in the 1992 Tory manifesto wasn’t it?

    Didn’t stop IDS rebelling.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046

    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011

    Which Irish ministers are the 'grown-ups' ?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Elliot said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another legacy of May’s time at the Home Office...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44093868

    Of EU membership you mean.
    Doing the rough-sleeping the locals wont do.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    Elliot said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another legacy of May’s time at the Home Office...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44093868

    Of EU membership you mean.
    No. Mrs May appears to have a rather cruel streak. Throwback to the 19th C and the concept of the ‘undeserving poor’.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    Elliot said:

    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011

    The Irish have no right to demand part of a foreign country, even one with close ties, follows their regulation.
    Except that we agreed for it to do so in December.

    https://twitter.com/MarrShow/status/995583244379684864?s=19
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046

    Ratifying the Maastricht Treaty was in the 1992 Tory manifesto wasn’t it?

    Didn’t stop IDS rebelling.
    Staying in the ERM was in the 1992 Tory manifesto wasn't it ?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    Elliot said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another legacy of May’s time at the Home Office...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44093868

    Of EU membership you mean.
    Doing the rough-sleeping the locals wont do.
    Presumably Schrodingers homeless, similtaneously sleeping rough and occupying homes. The Lithuanian in the story was sleeping rough, but employed too.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,294

    Ratifying the Maastricht Treaty was in the 1992 Tory manifesto wasn’t it?

    Didn’t stop IDS rebelling.
    Staying in the ERM was in the 1992 Tory manifesto wasn't it ?
    IIRC there was a qualifier in there saying membership for as long as it was in the UK’s economic interests.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    I am friends with some of the counsel on each side. The Scottish government’s hostility to fracking was palpable. They claimed that it was not economically viable, that Ineos had already bought ships to bring gas from the US and that no one wanted to do it anyway. They are playing politics with the largest industrial site in Scotland. It’s a disgrace and strategically stupid.
    Though people are free to vote against their economic interest, as we have seen multiple times in recent years.

    Pro-frackers need to respect the will of the people: https://stv.tv/news/politics/1386125-nine-in-ten-scots-support-fracking-ban-poll-suggests/
    Which they won’t find from a voodoo poll! Tut! Tut! I thought you knew better!
    Though other polls show only 25% support for fracking.

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/do-you-think-scotland-should-or-should-not-start-extracting-shale-gas#line

    Pro-frackers need to convince the public first, and they seem not to be winning that one.
    Until the people affected personally gain financially they will have no reason to support fracking.
    Silly people. Surely they should be convinced by the farsighted way that UK governments have harvested and nurtured offshore oil resources over 50 years.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046

    Elliot said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another legacy of May’s time at the Home Office...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44093868

    Of EU membership you mean.
    No. Mrs May appears to have a rather cruel streak. Throwback to the 19th C and the concept of the ‘undeserving poor’.
    That concept has never gone away and nor should it, there are various degrees of deserving and undeserving for every facet of human society.

    May does appear to lack empathy though or at least be unable or unwilling to show it.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    Ratifying the Maastricht Treaty was in the 1992 Tory manifesto wasn’t it?

    Didn’t stop IDS rebelling.
    Staying in the ERM was in the 1992 Tory manifesto wasn't it ?
    IIRC there was a qualifier in there saying membership for as long as it was in the UK’s economic interests.
    It's mainly mentioned as a warning that being in the ERM won't protect us from a Labour government.

    Membership of the ERM is now central to our counter-inflation discipline. But the ERM is not a magic wand. It would not protect Labour; it would merely expose the folly of Labour policies. Some Labour politicians know that all too well - others simply don't. They - and some of the unions - would put irresistible spending pressure on a Labour government.

    http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1992/1992-conservative-manifesto.shtml
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131
    Has Corbyn said anything about Tessie Jowell yet? Not seen anything. May's tribute seemed particularly genuine. I always had the impression that she was holding back when Tessie's husband had his local difficulty. I think they genuinely liked each other.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    DavidL said:

    Has Corbyn said anything about Tessie Jowell yet? Not seen anything. May's tribute seemed particularly genuine. I always had the impression that she was holding back when Tessie's husband had his local difficulty. I think they genuinely liked each other.

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/995565858696122368
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378

    Elliot said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another legacy of May’s time at the Home Office...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44093868

    Of EU membership you mean.
    Doing the rough-sleeping the locals wont do.
    Illegally temporary homeless who are in employment ?
    I’m not convinced that’s something to be defending.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    Foxy said:

    Elliot said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another legacy of May’s time at the Home Office...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44093868

    Of EU membership you mean.
    Doing the rough-sleeping the locals wont do.
    Presumably Schrodingers homeless, similtaneously sleeping rough and occupying homes. The Lithuanian in the story was sleeping rough, but employed too.
    I expect there's enough poor immigrants to fill up both the rough-sleeping and beds in sheds categories.

    And 'employed' can also mean many things including Big Issue selling, 16 hours a week tax credit claiming, zero hours exploited labour or the sort of construction job reported here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/08/slaves-working-in-uk-construction-and-car-washes-report-finds
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,629
    THERESA MAY·SATURDAY, 12 MAY 2018

    Paragraph 4. ...I will ensure that we take back control of our borders. The public want their own Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union and that is what we are going to do....

    Paragraph 12. ...I am clear that any deal with the EU must protect our precious union and also honour the agreements that were reached in the historic Northern Irish peace process. This means there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland...

    You can do 4 ("Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union") or you can do 12 ("there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland") but you can't do both.

    Theresa May. Cannot make a hard decision to save her life.

  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131

    DavidL said:

    Has Corbyn said anything about Tessie Jowell yet? Not seen anything. May's tribute seemed particularly genuine. I always had the impression that she was holding back when Tessie's husband had his local difficulty. I think they genuinely liked each other.

    https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/995565858696122368
    Thanks. Hadn’t seen that.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046

    Ratifying the Maastricht Treaty was in the 1992 Tory manifesto wasn’t it?

    Didn’t stop IDS rebelling.
    Staying in the ERM was in the 1992 Tory manifesto wasn't it ?
    IIRC there was a qualifier in there saying membership for as long as it was in the UK’s economic interests.
    Yet it was the unwilling ERM ejection followed by the exposure that the associated project fear had been a pack of lies (interest rates falling rapidly instead of being increased etc) which was a major factor in the Maastricht arguments.

    Not to forget Denmark's No vote being responded to with an order to have another referendum to get the required answer.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,378
    Elliot said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another legacy of May’s time at the Home Office...
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44093868

    Of EU membership you mean.
    No, I mean rule breaking by immigration officials. Or don’t you think they should follow the law ?

  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    surby said:

    surby said:
    I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....

    I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.

    An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
    Parliament now needs to be sitting for an early election to be called. Not much opportunity to call an election in September really.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    viewcode said:

    THERESA MAY·SATURDAY, 12 MAY 2018

    Paragraph 4. ...I will ensure that we take back control of our borders. The public want their own Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union and that is what we are going to do....

    Paragraph 12. ...I am clear that any deal with the EU must protect our precious union and also honour the agreements that were reached in the historic Northern Irish peace process. This means there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland...

    You can do 4 ("Government to decide on the number of people coming into Britain from across the European Union") or you can do 12 ("there can be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland") but you can't do both.

    Theresa May. Cannot make a hard decision to save her life.

    Actually those are not incompatible. Customs is about goods, and the CTA is about people, so perfectly possible for these to be combined. What is proving less possible is for the open border to the EU to be combined with leaving the CU. It looks to me the DUP get to choose between hard border, and a General election.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    The Scottish government’s hostility to fracking was palpable.
    Is that just to keep the Greens onside, or is it deeper than that?

  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,399
    edited May 2018
    Foxy said:

    Elliot said:

    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011

    The Irish have no right to demand part of a foreign country, even one with close ties, follows their regulation.
    Except that we agreed for it to do so in December.

    https://twitter.com/MarrShow/status/995583244379684864?s=19
    I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little. I don't think the agreement is anything like as precise as claimed.

    And there is still the small matter that the Irish government had previously been negotiating along those lines.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    philiph said:

    RobD said:

    RIP Dame Tessa Jowell

    Sad news. RIP.
    It is indeed. Must be very difficult decision to make on being public about a terminal illness - last year we lost a few who had given no inkling that they were not long for this earth (Alan Rickman, Victoria Wood).
    I think we have an unhealthy obsession with privacy of our wellbeing. Based on no facts at all I feel the stress of illness is lessened and generally the recovery is aided by sharing our troubles.

    Secrecy and privacy are over rated and come with many negative side effects and unintended consequences.
    There’s a difference between sharing with friends and family and sharing with the world
    But that should be an entirely personal decision and one we should support and certainly not criticise. We are far too sensitive about the whole subject of end of life which is rather strange considering it is the one thing that unites us all. The attitude in this country is extremely unhealthy and akin to the way we once viewed the other end of the process - childbirth - where women went into confinement for the duration.

    A more open attitude to death, to its prelude and to its consequences would, I feel, do a great deal to help the mental well being of both individuals and society as a whole.
    Yes, but @philiph was implicitly criticising Victoria Wood and Alan Rickman who chose not to share with the world that they were dying.

    I have no idea whether either of them shared that with their family and friends. I hope they did, but it's entirely their choice.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Elliot said:

    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011

    The Irish have no right to demand part of a foreign country, even one with close ties, follows their regulation.
    Except that we agreed for it to do so in December.

    https://twitter.com/MarrShow/status/995583244379684864?s=19
    I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little.
    Well, he is Deputy TD and responsible for the Irish governments Brexit position, and closely aligned with Barnier, so perhaps carries some weight in these things:

    https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/995277104030928896?s=19
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    edited May 2018
    Gerrard out demo outside Ibrox by the end of the day?

    Edit: I see Jimmy Nicholl is interim manager. Phew for Stevie G.

    '12:52
    GOAL Hibernian 3-0 Rangers

    Jamie Maclaren

    It's a rout!'
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,576
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Elliot said:

    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011

    The Irish have no right to demand part of a foreign country, even one with close ties, follows their regulation.
    Except that we agreed for it to do so in December.

    https://twitter.com/MarrShow/status/995583244379684864?s=19
    I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little. I don't think the agreement is anything like as precise as claimed.

    And there is still the small matter that the Irish government had previously been negotiating along those lines.
    If this does go pear-shaped, no one is going to be more royally buggered - outside the UK - than the Irish - and we have some levers (our own currency) they don't....
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Am loathe to talk about Eurovision - some people get very animated by it - but it is fun to watch with friends and how everyone has a different view. I liked Albania, Austria and the UK - fair play to Surie who didn't flinch amidst the nonsense. I see there is a bit of a groundswell of support for her to have another go next year in Jerusalem where hopefully security will be a bit tighter.

    It has got too self-referential; with every act and every commentator relentlessly sending it up, there's no serious core to parody, so none of the attempted self-parody works.

    Has it ever produced one decent song? The only ones I can think of are Puppet on a String ("I hated it from the very first oompah to the final bang on the big bass drum. I was instinctively repelled by its sexist drivel and cuckoo-clock tune" - Sandie Shaw) and Waterloo which did its job of launching Abba but is a toe-curling embarrassment.
    Boom-Bang-A-Bang

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ew43u2gS0Y

    Love, Shine a Light

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZtZkPN2mI8
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    Gerrard out demo outside Ibrox by the end of the day?

    '12:52
    GOAL Hibernian 3-0 Rangers

    Jamie Maclaren

    It's a rout!'

    I would have thought that Rangers needed a more experienced manager to regain their former glories. It is a lot to ask of a rookie, even one with a strong playing record.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    Foxy said:

    Gerrard out demo outside Ibrox by the end of the day?

    '12:52
    GOAL Hibernian 3-0 Rangers

    Jamie Maclaren

    It's a rout!'

    I would have thought that Rangers needed a more experienced manager to regain their former glories. It is a lot to ask of a rookie, even one with a strong playing record.
    3-2 now.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    surby said:
    I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....

    I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.

    An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
    On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
    Wait until you see her manifesto though...
    Corbyn made virtually zero net gains at all from the Tories in GE 2017 compared to GE 2015 even after the publication of the Tory manifesto and the disastrous dementia tax which has now been dumped anyway, virtually all his gains came from squeezing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters and there is little more room for him to squeeze there.

    I repeat, a general election now would solve nothing and produce virtually the same result as the last one and still leave May in power but short of a working majority.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,131

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Good piece. The massive increase in US oil production with fracking has indeed changed their interests in the ME. This week we had a judicial review on the part of Ineos in the Court of Session challenging the Scottish government’s ban on fracking which might politely be described as Luddite.

    Not so much “Luddite” as “non existent” - bit like the “EU advice” they spent thousands on legal fees trying to conceal didn’t exist.

    Petrochemical firm Ineos said it was "astonished" to hear that the Scottish government had not banned fracking.

    The statement was made outside the Court of Session where the company has been challenging the moratorium in Scotland on the controversial practice.

    Ineos and Reach CSG claim ministers acted illegally in announcing the block in October 2017.

    Government lawyers told the court a ban was not in place and that a final position had yet to be adopted.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-44072425
    The Scottish government’s hostility to fracking was palpable.
    Is that just to keep the Greens onside, or is it deeper than that?

    I don't have any inside knowledge on their motivations but I have no doubt that they think it is politically popular and they are probably right. Just as with GM our media and anti science obsessives seem to completely dominate public discussion and attitudes. The hostility to scientific progress in this country and much of the west that does not involve a mobile phone or a tablet is concerning.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213
    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Am loathe to talk about Eurovision - some people get very animated by it - but it is fun to watch with friends and how everyone has a different view. I liked Albania, Austria and the UK - fair play to Surie who didn't flinch amidst the nonsense. I see there is a bit of a groundswell of support for her to have another go next year in Jerusalem where hopefully security will be a bit tighter.

    It has got too self-referential; with every act and every commentator relentlessly sending it up, there's no serious core to parody, so none of the attempted self-parody works.

    Has it ever produced one decent song? The only ones I can think of are Puppet on a String ("I hated it from the very first oompah to the final bang on the big bass drum. I was instinctively repelled by its sexist drivel and cuckoo-clock tune" - Sandie Shaw) and Waterloo which did its job of launching Abba but is a toe-curling embarrassment.
    Boom-Bang-A-Bang

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ew43u2gS0Y

    Love, Shine a Light

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZtZkPN2mI8

    We're flying the flag
    All over the world
    Flying the flag for you!
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,692
    edited May 2018
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Elliot said:

    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011

    The Irish have no right to demand part of a foreign country, even one with close ties, follows their regulation.
    Except that we agreed for it to do so in December.

    https://twitter.com/MarrShow/status/995583244379684864?s=19
    I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little. I don't think the agreement is anything like as precise as claimed.

    And there is still the small matter that the Irish government had previously been negotiating along those lines.
    The draft treaty is the agreement in concrete legal terms. The UK government could challenge the wording but in fact it rejects in principle this part of its previous agreement.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Elliot said:

    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011

    The Irish have no right to demand part of a foreign country, even one with close ties, follows their regulation.
    Except that we agreed for it to do so in December.

    https://twitter.com/MarrShow/status/995583244379684864?s=19
    I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little.
    Well, he is Deputy TD and responsible for the Irish governments Brexit position, and closely aligned with Barnier, so perhaps carries some weight in these things:

    https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/995277104030928896?s=19
    In which case I would suggest Eire should be prepared for the hard border which would be the results of there being no withdrawal agreement.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    surby said:
    I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....

    I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.

    An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
    On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
    Wait until you see her manifesto though...
    Corbyn made virtually zero net gains at all from the Tories in GE 2017 compared to GE 2015 even after the publication of the Tory manifesto and the disastrous dementia tax which had now been dumped anyway, virtually all his gains from squeezing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters.

    I repeat, a general election now would solve nothing and produce virtually the same result as the last one and still leave May in power but short of a working majority.
    Labour made a net gain of 22 seats from the Tories in 2017 compared with 2015.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    surby said:
    I think she may be attempting to appeal directly to voters (or at least Constituency Chairmen) to try to put pressure on the more recalcitrant MPs on either side of the debate. And now Labours said they’ll vote against any deal....

    I think she knows there can be no deal this Parliament for her interpretation of the referendum result.

    An October or February election looks inevitable. In fact, the Tories possible loss of power will itself be pressure on the Tory party to back her.
    On the current Survation Gold Standard poll even an early general election would see May stay in power with virtually no change from the last general election result
    Wait until you see her manifesto though...
    Corbyn made virtually zero net gains at all from the Tories in GE 2017 compared to GE 2015 even after the publication of the Tory manifesto and the disastrous dementia tax which had now been dumped anyway, virtually all his gains from squeezing LD, Green, SNP and UKIP voters.

    I repeat, a general election now would solve nothing and produce virtually the same result as the last one and still leave May in power but short of a working majority.
    Labour made a net gain of 22 seats from the Tories in 2017 compared with 2015.
    In seats NOT in voters, those gains came almost entirely from getting more minor party and non voters voting Labour and there will be little more room to do that next time.

    Corbyn made virtually no net gains at all in terms of Tory voters switching to Labour and he has to do that to become PM next time
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027

    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    Elliot said:

    Irish Times:

    "The time for the two-year-long British fudge is coming to an end."

    "There is a high level of engagement between Dublin and London at present, despite the poor relationship between the Taoiseach and prime minister Theresa May, especially with Philip Hammond and David Lidington, who are regarded by Irish Ministers as the “grown-ups”. "

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/cervical-cancer-scandal-convulses-government-1.3492011

    The Irish have no right to demand part of a foreign country, even one with close ties, follows their regulation.
    Except that we agreed for it to do so in December.

    https://twitter.com/MarrShow/status/995583244379684864?s=19
    I think the Minister doth overegg his pudding a little.
    Well, he is Deputy TD and responsible for the Irish governments Brexit position, and closely aligned with Barnier, so perhaps carries some weight in these things:

    https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status/995277104030928896?s=19
    In which case I would suggest Eire should be prepared for the hard border which would be the results of there being no withdrawal agreement.
    How many days do you think the UK would last after a no deal Brexit?
This discussion has been closed.