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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance

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  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    MaxPB said:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-44119045

    Another example of polls underestimating the nationalist choice.

    OTOH, the BJP have zero presence in my native Kerala.
    I thought you were native to Essex?
    Um, from when I was 4 months old ;)

    Which of course means that when I first arrived in the UK, I couldn't speak a word of English :lol:
    I had a similar problem. Sometimes I think I still suffer from it :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774
    TOPPING said:

    Sorry but I think the LDs have had it. Being a general NOTA, what are you rebelling against Party is fine and as we saw, such a theoretical position had a very strong attraction.

    Since then, not only have they had contact with reality, which didn't suit their supporters all that much, but they are positioning themselves as a single issue NOTA which doesn't really work.

    Perhaps best would be to do a UKIP and turn into a single issue pressure group seeking to rejoin the EU. And who knows, in 20 years or so they may very well be successful.

    I think you're wrong. I think the LibDem strategy is smarter than you think.

    After March next year, with pro-Brexit voters, the EU's former Europhilia will become less and less of an issue, because it is clear we will not be rejoining the EU.

    However, with those that lose out due to Brexit - and don't forget there will be some who do, and some who think that the reason their firm closed or they lost their job, or why there was a recession - then they will have been the voice of opposition. It's the Iraq war strategy again: be the only people against a policy, and benefit from the votes of those who hate it down the line.

    A much bigger issue, to my mind, is the complete dearth of talent in the LibDem parliamentary party. Cable: dreadful. Swinson: over-rated. Layla: very poor. Hobhouse: worse. Unless someone with charisma and "bottom" gets to the top of the party, then I can't really see them going anywhere.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Andrew said:

    @mods : you might want to know that PB currently is running those scam bitcoin adverts, with the fake Dragon's Den quotes. I know you probably have little influence over what ads google choose there, but might be worth looking at (especially since they're getting sued for the fake endorsements by Peter Jones).

    I think you get profiled for the ads. I am not seeing Bitcoin ones and I suspect if my shopping choices were generally displayed at the top of PB there would be little activity in the threads below.

    :D:D:D
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sorry but I think the LDs have had it. Being a general NOTA, what are you rebelling against Party is fine and as we saw, such a theoretical position had a very strong attraction.

    Since then, not only have they had contact with reality, which didn't suit their supporters all that much, but they are positioning themselves as a single issue NOTA which doesn't really work.

    Perhaps best would be to do a UKIP and turn into a single issue pressure group seeking to rejoin the EU. And who knows, in 20 years or so they may very well be successful.

    I think you're wrong. I think the LibDem strategy is smarter than you think.

    After March next year, with pro-Brexit voters, the EU's former Europhilia will become less and less of an issue, because it is clear we will not be rejoining the EU.

    However, with those that lose out due to Brexit - and don't forget there will be some who do, and some who think that the reason their firm closed or they lost their job, or why there was a recession - then they will have been the voice of opposition. It's the Iraq war strategy again: be the only people against a policy, and benefit from the votes of those who hate it down the line.
    After March next year, why would anybody need to vote for an anti-Brexit protest party when it will be clear that we will never leave the EU?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sorry but I think the LDs have had it. Being a general NOTA, what are you rebelling against Party is fine and as we saw, such a theoretical position had a very strong attraction.

    Since then, not only have they had contact with reality, which didn't suit their supporters all that much, but they are positioning themselves as a single issue NOTA which doesn't really work.

    Perhaps best would be to do a UKIP and turn into a single issue pressure group seeking to rejoin the EU. And who knows, in 20 years or so they may very well be successful.

    I think you're wrong. I think the LibDem strategy is smarter than you think.

    After March next year, with pro-Brexit voters, the EU's former Europhilia will become less and less of an issue, because it is clear we will not be rejoining the EU.

    However, with those that lose out due to Brexit - and don't forget there will be some who do, and some who think that the reason their firm closed or they lost their job, or why there was a recession - then they will have been the voice of opposition. It's the Iraq war strategy again: be the only people against a policy, and benefit from the votes of those who hate it down the line.

    A much bigger issue, to my mind, is the complete dearth of talent in the LibDem parliamentary party. Cable: dreadful. Swinson: over-rated. Layla: very poor. Hobhouse: worse. Unless someone with charisma and "bottom" gets to the top of the party, then I can't really see them going anywhere.
    I don't believe that you will be able to drop the effects of Brexit on your foot (the equivalent of 2p on beer and fags), and therefore there will be no "gotcha" moment when philes can say "told you so, this is how politically acute I am, come follow me now." It will be messy and interspersed with any number of other things. Ceteris certainly won't be paribus to be able to separate out the Brexit effects from other ones.

    As to talent, shouldn't all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party and make it a soft left opposition? Plenty of talent in those ranks.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    rcs1000 said:



    A much bigger issue, to my mind, is the complete dearth of talent in the LibDem parliamentary party. Cable: dreadful. Swinson: over-rated. Layla: very poor. Hobhouse: worse. Unless someone with charisma and "bottom" gets to the top of the party, then I can't really see them going anywhere.

    That's rather in the eye of the beholder isn't it? With the exception of Cable I find myself very impressed by all of the people that you've listed there. :)

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sorry but I think the LDs have had it. Being a general NOTA, what are you rebelling against Party is fine and as we saw, such a theoretical position had a very strong attraction.

    Since then, not only have they had contact with reality, which didn't suit their supporters all that much, but they are positioning themselves as a single issue NOTA which doesn't really work.

    Perhaps best would be to do a UKIP and turn into a single issue pressure group seeking to rejoin the EU. And who knows, in 20 years or so they may very well be successful.

    I think you're wrong. I think the LibDem strategy is smarter than you think.

    After March next year, with pro-Brexit voters, the EU's former Europhilia will become less and less of an issue, because it is clear we will not be rejoining the EU.

    However, with those that lose out due to Brexit - and don't forget there will be some who do, and some who think that the reason their firm closed or they lost their job, or why there was a recession - then they will have been the voice of opposition. It's the Iraq war strategy again: be the only people against a policy, and benefit from the votes of those who hate it down the line.

    A much bigger issue, to my mind, is the complete dearth of talent in the LibDem parliamentary party. Cable: dreadful. Swinson: over-rated. Layla: very poor. Hobhouse: worse. Unless someone with charisma and "bottom" gets to the top of the party, then I can't really see them going anywhere.
    I don't believe that you will be able to drop the effects of Brexit on your foot (the equivalent of 2p on beer and fags), and therefore there will be no "gotcha" moment when philes can say "told you so, this is how politically acute I am, come follow me now." It will be messy and interspersed with any number of other things. Ceteris certainly won't be paribus to be able to separate out the Brexit effects from other ones.

    As to talent, shouldn't all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party and make it a soft left opposition? Plenty of talent in those ranks.

    "all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party"

    That's kinda what got us into this situation in the first place.

    If the MPs had been more aware of the concerns of 'bigoted' constituents, then there wouldn't have been a swing towards Brexit.

    Too late now, of course.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    O/T is there anywhere I can find how people voted in the EU referendum by both class and political allegiance?

    ie I'm trying to find out what the split was between middle and working class Conservatives, and middle and working class Labour voters.

    Is this what you’re after?

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum
    It comes close, but it doesn't have the information I'm looking for.

    You can see how people voted by sex/class and age/class but not by political allegiance/class
    This is not quite what you want but might be relevant.
    https://twitter.com/marwood_lennox/status/956998702979276800
    Thanks.
    The Joseph Rowntree Brexit report may also be helpful:

    https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/brexit-vote-explained-poverty-low-skills-and-lack-opportunities
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Andrew said:

    @mods : you might want to know that PB currently is running those scam bitcoin adverts, with the fake Dragon's Den quotes. I know you probably have little influence over what ads google choose there, but might be worth looking at (especially since they're getting sued for the fake endorsements by Peter Jones).

    I think you get profiled for the ads. I am not seeing Bitcoin ones and I suspect if my shopping choices were generally displayed at the top of PB there would be little activity in the threads below.

    :D:D:D
    Yes the ads say more about the user's browsing habits than PB.
    Didn't someone complain about Russian Bride ads a while back?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Nick, there is nothing left wing per se about being republican. Richard Littlejohn is a republican, for example. Indeed, republicanism often sprouts from notions of meritocracy, which is not a particularly socialist principle.

    It could be argued that monarchism is hard-left – after all, the Royal Family is the beneficiary of the world's most generous welfare programme!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited May 2018

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sorry but I think the LDs have had it. Being a general NOTA, what are you rebelling against Party is fine and as we saw, such a theoretical position had a very strong attraction.

    Since then, not only have they had contact with reality, which didn't suit their supporters all that much, but they are positioning themselves as a single issue NOTA which doesn't really work.

    Perhaps best would be to do a UKIP and turn into a single issue pressure group seeking to rejoin the EU. And who knows, in 20 years or so they may very well be successful.

    I think you're wrong. I think the LibDem strategy is smarter than you think.

    After March next year, with pro-Brexit voters, the EU's former Europhilia will become less and less of an issue, because it is clear we will not be rejoining the EU.

    However, with those that lose out due tn the line.

    A much bigger issue, to my mind, is the complete dearth of talent in the LibDem parliamentary party. Cable: dreadful. Swinson: over-rated. Layla: very poor. Hobhouse: worse. Unless someone with charisma and "bottom" gets to the top of the party, then I can't really see them going anywhere.
    I don't believe that you will be able to drop the effects of Brexit on your foot (the equivalent of 2p on beer and fags), and therefore there will be no "gotcha" moment when philes can say "told you so, this is how politically acute I am, come follow me now." It will be messy and interspersed with any number of other things. Ceteris certainly won't be paribus to be able to separate out the Brexit effects from other ones.

    As to talent, shouldn't all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party and make it a soft left opposition? Plenty of talent in those ranks.

    "all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party"

    That's kinda what got us into this situation in the first place.

    If the MPs had been more aware of the concerns of 'bigoted' constituents, then there wouldn't have been a swing towards Brexit.

    Too late now, of course.

    And done what?

    With FoM there was nothing they could have done. As you may know (because I bang on about it all the time in these situation) - the referendum was lost (for me) on the day that DP had Kate Hoey and Nick Herbert debating FoM and Nick Herbert simply had no answer to the charge that as a continuing member of the SM, we would not be able to do anything about FoM.

    The electorate is always right and must be respected is something I agree with. That they possess the wisdom of Solomon is more debatable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    TOPPING said:

    The electorate is always right and must be respected is something I agree with. That they possess the wisdom of Solomon is more debatable.

    1. The electorate is always right = we must negotiate a Brexit deal. They deserve to see this process given a chance.

    2. The electorate must be respected = having negotiated a deal we must ask them if it's what they want with an option to remain. They will give a verdict, at which point, see item one.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the Lib Dems could push 30% or so in a Buckingham by-election. They'll definitely get more votes there than Lewisham.

    Buckingham is not that different a seat to the host of wealthy Southern market towns the LibDems used to hold: Eastleigh, Bath, Winchester, etc.

    And I think you can probably allocate all the "Pro EU Conservative Party" votes to the LibDems in a by-election, and a reasonable portion of the (small) Labour vote.

    My guess is that the LibDems could nab it on a good day. However, how many good days do the LibDems have with Vince as leader?
    The Tories held Buckingham comfortably in 1997 and 2001 before Bercow became Speaker and with the Tories ahead in most national polls I doubt the LDs have any real chance. It was also pretty evenly split in the EU referendum unlike Richmond Park which was over 70% Remain
    The LibDems need a non-scary Labour party in order to do well, provided that the Tory party is relatively non-scary. So, if Corbyn went the LibDems would do better or if May was replaced by Mogg they would do better.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Andrew said:

    @mods : you might want to know that PB currently is running those scam bitcoin adverts, with the fake Dragon's Den quotes. I know you probably have little influence over what ads google choose there, but might be worth looking at (especially since they're getting sued for the fake endorsements by Peter Jones).

    I think you get profiled for the ads. I am not seeing Bitcoin ones and I suspect if my shopping choices were generally displayed at the top of PB there would be little activity in the threads below.

    :D:D:D
    Yes the ads say more about the user's browsing habits than PB.
    Didn't someone complain about Russian Bride ads a while back?
    I don't have any ads, and I'm not running adblock.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sorry but I think the LDs have had it. Being a general NOTA, what are you rebelling against Party is fine and as we saw, such a theoretical position had a very strong attraction.

    Since then, not only have they had contact with reality, which didn't suit their supporters all that much, but they are positioning themselves as a single issue NOTA which doesn't really work.

    Perhaps best would be to do a UKIP and turn into a single issue pressure group seeking to rejoin the EU. And who knows, in 20 years or so they may very well be successful.

    I think you're wrong. I think the LibDem strategy is smarter than you think.

    After March next year, with pro-Brexit voters, the EU's former Europhilia will become less and less of an issue, because it is clear we will not be rejoining the EU.

    However, with those that lose out due tn the line.

    A much bigger issue, to my mind, is the complete dearth of talent in the LibDem parliamentary party. Cable: dreadful. Swinson: over-rated. Layla: very poor. Hobhouse: worse. Unless someone with charisma and "bottom" gets to the top of the party, then I can't really see them going anywhere.
    I don't believe that you will be able to drop the effects of Brexit on your foot (the equivalent of 2p on beer and fags), and therefore there will be no "gotcha" moment when philes can say "told you so, this is how politically acute I am, come follow me now." It will be messy and interspersed with any number of other things. Ceteris certainly won't be paribus to be able to separate out the Brexit effects from other ones.

    As to talent, shouldn't all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party and make it a soft left opposition? Plenty of talent in those ranks.

    "all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party"

    That's kinda what got us into this situation in the first place.

    If the MPs had been more aware of the concerns of 'bigoted' constituents, then there wouldn't have been a swing towards Brexit.

    Too late now, of course.

    And done what?

    With FoM there was nothing they could have done. As you may know (because I bang on about it all the time in these situation) - the referendum was lost (for me) on the day that DP had Kate Hoey and Nick Herbert debating FoM and Nick Herbert simply had no answer to the charge that as a continuing member of the SM, we would not be able to do anything about FoM.

    The electorate is always right and must be respected is something I agree with. That they possess the wisdom of Solomon is more debatable.

    Cameron should have pushed for and got a better deal. The referendum was lost when he came back from Europe waving a piece of paper as if it meant anything.

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Andrew said:

    @mods : you might want to know that PB currently is running those scam bitcoin adverts, with the fake Dragon's Den quotes. I know you probably have little influence over what ads google choose there, but might be worth looking at (especially since they're getting sued for the fake endorsements by Peter Jones).

    I think you get profiled for the ads. I am not seeing Bitcoin ones and I suspect if my shopping choices were generally displayed at the top of PB there would be little activity in the threads below.

    :D:D:D
    Yes the ads say more about the user's browsing habits than PB.
    Didn't someone complain about Russian Bride ads a while back?
    I must have missed it whilst lingerie shopping :D:D
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TOPPING said:

    And done what?

    With FoM there was nothing they could have done. As you may know (because I bang on about it all the time in these situation) - the referendum was lost (for me) on the day that DP had Kate Hoey and Nick Herbert debating FoM and Nick Herbert simply had no answer to the charge that as a continuing member of the SM, we would not be able to do anything about FoM.

    And as always, high migration is a symprom of a successful economy.

    We can reduce it by crashing the economy, as we are about to demonstrate.

    Just becuase people voted for it, doesn't make it a wise choice.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Cameron should have pushed for and got a better deal. The referendum was lost when he came back from Europe waving a piece of paper as if it meant anything.

    That became impossible the moment he declared he would hold a referendum and flirted with the idea of campaigning to leave if the deal wasn't good enough. That framed it as an existential threat to the EU from the beginning. The UK tried to threaten the EU with its own destruction in order to extract concessions, did it at a moment of weakness with the migration crisis at its peak, and it has culminated in a complete debacle for the UK.

    It's unfortunate that Cameron dragged the entire population into it but that's the scale of his political failure.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sorry but I think the LDs have had it. Being a general NOTA, what are you rebelling against Party is fine and as we saw, such a theoretical position had a very strong attraction.

    Since then, not only have they had contact with reality, which didn't suit their supporters all that much, but they are positioning themselves as a single issue NOTA which doesn't really work.

    Perhaps best would be to do a UKIP and turn into a single issue pressure group seeking to rejoin the EU. And who knows, in 20 years or so they may very well be successful.

    I think you're wrong. I think the LibDem strategy is smarter than you think.

    After March next year, with pro-Brexit voters, the EU's former Europhilia will become less and less of an issue, because it is clear we will not be rejoining the EU.

    However, with those that lose out due tn the line.

    A much bigger issue, to my mind, is the complete dearth of talent in the LibDem parliamentary party. Cable: dreadful. Swinson: over-rated. Layla: very poor. Hobhouse: worse. Unless someone with charisma and "bottom" gets to the top of the party, then I can't really see them going anywhere.
    I don't believe that you will be able tor ones.

    As to talent, shouldn't all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party and make it a soft left opposition? Plenty of talent in those ranks.

    "all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party"

    That's kinda what got us into this situation in the first place.

    If the MPs had been more aware of the concerns of 'bigoted' constituents, then there wouldn't have been a swing towards Brexit.

    Too late now, of course.

    And done what?

    With FoM there was nothing they could have done. As you may know (because I bang on about it all the time in these situation) - the referendum was lost (for me) on the day that DP had Kate Hoey and Nick Herbert debating FoM and Nick Herbert simply had no answer to the charge that as a continuing member of the SM, we would not be able to do anything about FoM.

    The electorate is always right and must be respected is something I agree with. That they possess the wisdom of Solomon is more debatable.

    Cameron should have pushed for and got a better deal. The referendum was lost when he came back from Europe waving a piece of paper as if it meant anything.

    I think we've done Dave's Deal to death. I think it was a good one, you evidently don't.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Scott_P said:

    TOPPING said:

    And done what?

    With FoM there was nothing they could have done. As you may know (because I bang on about it all the time in these situation) - the referendum was lost (for me) on the day that DP had Kate Hoey and Nick Herbert debating FoM and Nick Herbert simply had no answer to the charge that as a continuing member of the SM, we would not be able to do anything about FoM.

    And as always, high migration is a symprom of a successful economy.

    We can reduce it by crashing the economy, as we are about to demonstrate.

    Just becuase people voted for it, doesn't make it a wise choice.
    Throughout recent-ish history people have voted the Labour Party into power for heaven's sake. Quite the opposite of wise so indeed I don't think we can accept the wisdom of Brexit just because it was voted for.
  • flubadubflubadub Posts: 20
    'Buckingham' isn't really a Buckingham constituency, it's Aylesbury Vale, excluding Aylesbury itself
    The 2010 boundary changes were very minor and essentially swapped Aston Clinton for the Risboroughs (Wycombe DC).
    Peak Lib Dem was 1995 in Aylesbury Vale, when Lib Dem won the council. However Aston Clinton was not fertile territory, managing only 22% of the vote, behind Labour on 25% and the Tories on 50%.
    Peak Lib Dem in Wycombe was 1987, though they were still ok in 1995. In 1987 the Alliance won 44.5% in the Risboroughs, and by 1995 they had 38.2%, winning a seat, though they did win a seat as a result of a Labour bothering to put up a candidate.
    The other movement to Buckingham was Icknield, also from Wycombe DC where the Tory vote is weighed, with easy wins in every year, however it's much smaller than the Risboroughs.

    It's difficult to see this as anything other than easy Con hold, particularly as it is not a strong Remain area, roughly 52/48. There is certainly not a history of Westminster Lib Dem success in the region.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sorry but I think the LDs have had it. Being a general NOTA, what are you rebelling against Party is fine and as we saw, such a theoretical position had a very strong attraction.

    Since then, not only have they had contact with reality, which didn't suit their supporters all that much, but they are positioning themselves as a single issue NOTA which doesn't really work.

    Perhaps best would be to do a UKIP and turn into a single issue pressure group seeking to rejoin the EU. And who knows, in 20 years or so they may very well be successful.

    I think you're wrong. I think the LibDem strategy is smarter than you think.

    After March next year, with pro-Brexit voters, the EU's former Europhilia will become less and less of an issue, because it is clear we will not be rejoining the EU.

    However, with those that lose out due tn the line.

    A much bigger issue, to my mind, is the complete dearth of talent in the LibDem parliamentary party. Cable: dreadful. Swinson: over-rated. Layla: very poor. Hobhouse: worse. Unless someone with charisma and "bottom" gets to the top of the party, then I can't really see them going anywhere.
    I don't believe that you will be able tor ones.

    As to talent, shouldn't all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party and make it a soft left opposition? Plenty of talent in those ranks.

    "all Lab (and some Cons) europhiles take over the party"

    That's kinda what got us into this situation in the first place.

    If the MPs had been more aware of the concerns of 'bigoted' constituents, then there wouldn't have been a swing towards Brexit.

    Too late now, of course.

    And done what?

    With FoM there was nothing they could have done. As you may know (because I bang on about it all the time in these situation) - the referendum was lost (for me) on the day that DP had Kate Hoey and Nick Herbert debating FoM and Nick Herbert simply had no answer to the charge that as a continuing member of the SM, we would not be able to do anything about FoM.

    The electorate is always right and must be respected is something I agree with. That they possess the wisdom of Solomon is more debatable.

    Cameron should have pushed for and got a better deal. The referendum was lost when he came back from Europe waving a piece of paper as if it meant anything.

    I think we've done Dave's Deal to death. I think it was a good one, you evidently don't.
    A majority of the UK electorate (who expressed a preference) didn't think it was a good one either.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good afternoon. Did anyone have gammon for lunch?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. JS, no, but I did have ham sandwiches. Huzzah for the pig, who nobly furnishes us with delicious meats of great variety!

    [I also had a cheese sandwich. Red Leicester. British cheese for British sandwiches].
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    flubadub said:

    'Buckingham' isn't really a Buckingham constituency, it's Aylesbury Vale, excluding Aylesbury itself
    The 2010 boundary changes were very minor and essentially swapped Aston Clinton for the Risboroughs (Wycombe DC).
    Peak Lib Dem was 1995 in Aylesbury Vale, when Lib Dem won the council. However Aston Clinton was not fertile territory, managing only 22% of the vote, behind Labour on 25% and the Tories on 50%.
    Peak Lib Dem in Wycombe was 1987, though they were still ok in 1995. In 1987 the Alliance won 44.5% in the Risboroughs, and by 1995 they had 38.2%, winning a seat, though they did win a seat as a result of a Labour bothering to put up a candidate.
    The other movement to Buckingham was Icknield, also from Wycombe DC where the Tory vote is weighed, with easy wins in every year, however it's much smaller than the Risboroughs.

    It's difficult to see this as anything other than easy Con hold, particularly as it is not a strong Remain area, roughly 52/48. There is certainly not a history of Westminster Lib Dem success in the region.

    Quite right.

    When Lib Dems won the Aylesbury Vale Council it was primarily through winning wards in Aylesbury not so much in the rural Buckingham constituency.

    Buckinghamshire County Council has been Conservative for over 130 years, the longest the same political party has been continuously in government anywhere in the world. Even other shires have gone against the Conservatives now and again or been broken up.

    However, Conservatives were shocked to lose the by-election in Quainton to the Lib Dems earlier this month.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Milton Keynes used to be part of Buckinghamshire County Council until 1997.

    http://www.electionscentre.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Buckinghamshire-County.pdf
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited May 2018
    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. Did anyone have gammon for lunch?

    Gammon for lunch? Sacrilege! It requires the respect of being the main meal of the day at dinner time.... (and a decent gap from the breakfast bacon buttie.....)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited May 2018

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. Did anyone have gammon for lunch?

    Gammon for lunch? Sacrilege! It requires the respect of being the main meal of the day at dinner time.... (and a decent gap from the breakfast bacon buttie.....)
    Well you know what people apparently routinely have with gammon, don't you.

    Edit: https://harvester.co.uk/mainmenu
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. Did anyone have gammon for lunch?

    Gammon for lunch? Sacrilege! It requires the respect of being the main meal of the day at dinner time.... (and a decent gap from the breakfast bacon buttie.....)

    The mid-day meal is dinner. The evening meal is tea. And the late evening meal is supper.

    Gammon in the morning, gammon in the evening, gammon at supper time.
    Be my little gammon and love me all the time.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. Did anyone have gammon for lunch?

    Gammon for lunch? Sacrilege! It requires the respect of being the main meal of the day at dinner time.... (and a decent gap from the breakfast bacon buttie.....)

    The mid-day meal is dinner. The evening meal is tea. And the late evening meal is supper.

    Gammon in the morning, gammon in the evening, gammon at supper time.
    Be my little gammon and love me all the time.
    Sugary schmalz, but gamine perhaps.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. Did anyone have gammon for lunch?

    Gammon for lunch? Sacrilege! It requires the respect of being the main meal of the day at dinner time.... (and a decent gap from the breakfast bacon buttie.....)

    The mid-day meal is dinner. The evening meal is tea. And the late evening meal is supper.

    Gammon in the morning, gammon in the evening, gammon at supper time.
    Be my little gammon and love me all the time.
    Yer fecking what?

    Tea is something you drink.

    The mid-day meal is lunch.

    The evening meal is dinner.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited May 2018


    Cameron should have pushed for and got a better deal. The referendum was lost when he came back from Europe waving a piece of paper as if it meant anything.

    Voting for a Brexit deal that is guaranteed to be a downgrade on the status quo because someone failed to improve on the status quo in another deal is the most spiteful of nose cut offs. The baselines are different. Cameron's baseline was the status quo. Brexit has zero as the baseline.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    The midday meal is dinner (or lunch).

    The evening meal is tea.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    edited May 2018

    Mr. Eagles, call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    The midday meal is dinner (or lunch).

    The evening meal is tea.

    Mr Dancer, I would have thought the nutritional value of tea (aside from caffeine) would be negligible?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Prasannan, I'm talking about tea, not tea. Pay attention, man.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited May 2018

    Mr. Eagles, call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    The midday meal is dinner (or lunch).

    The evening meal is tea.

    That sounds like metropolitan liberal elite talk to me.

    I'm prolier than thou.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,774

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think the Lib Dems could push 30% or so in a Buckingham by-election. They'll definitely get more votes there than Lewisham.

    Buckingham is not that different a seat to the host of wealthy Southern market towns the LibDems used to hold: Eastleigh, Bath, Winchester, etc.

    And I think you can probably allocate all the "Pro EU Conservative Party" votes to the LibDems in a by-election, and a reasonable portion of the (small) Labour vote.

    My guess is that the LibDems could nab it on a good day. However, how many good days do the LibDems have with Vince as leader?
    The Tories held Buckingham comfortably in 1997 and 2001 before Bercow became Speaker and with the Tories ahead in most national polls I doubt the LDs have any real chance. It was also pretty evenly split in the EU referendum unlike Richmond Park which was over 70% Remain
    The LibDems need a non-scary Labour party in order to do well, provided that the Tory party is relatively non-scary. So, if Corbyn went the LibDems would do better or if May was replaced by Mogg they would do better.
    I think that's right.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Mr. Eagles, call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    The midday meal is dinner (or lunch).

    The evening meal is tea.

    Groan. Is it even called that beyond a handful of grumpy northern stick-in-the-muds? If you called the middle meal dinner down here, you would never get a date as she'd turn up seven hours 'late'. Not a good strategy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2018
    Gammon for tea was definitely on the meal plan for this week. Can't remember if it was tonight, wednesday or sunday though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    O/T:

    Odd choice of words by the Queen's cousin:

    "Harry and Meghan's relationship 'not gross, just adoring', says Queen's party planner"
    https://news.sky.com/story/queens-party-planner-cousin-hails-harry-and-meghans-tactile-relationship-11372860
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, I'm not a prole at all. I'm an impoverished middle class fellow. And you are wrong, once again.

    Clearly, I must have sinned terribly in a previous life to be punished with trying to educate you.

    Ms. Anazina, southerners have lots of silly ideas. Probably corrupted by proximity to France.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922
    Anazina said:

    Mr. Eagles, call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    The midday meal is dinner (or lunch).

    The evening meal is tea.

    Groan. Is it even called that beyond a handful of grumpy northern stick-in-the-muds? If you called the middle meal dinner down here, you would never get a date as she'd turn up seven hours 'late'. Not a good strategy.
    You never heard of "School Dinners"? "Dinner Ladies"?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anazina said:

    Groan. Is it even called that beyond a handful of grumpy northern stick-in-the-muds? If you called the middle meal dinner down here, you would never get a date as she'd turn up seven hours 'late'. Not a good strategy.

    Which meal do "dinner ladies" serve, and at what time of day?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Prasannan, must've had Brunch Matrons :D
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Mr. Eagles, I'm not a prole at all. I'm an impoverished middle class fellow. And you are wrong, once again.

    Clearly, I must have sinned terribly in a previous life to be punished with trying to educate you.

    Ms. Anazina, southerners have lots of silly ideas. Probably corrupted by proximity to France.

    Have you ever visited France? There is one person on here who has never graced her shores, nor visited London (in his whole life!) yet slags off both.

    Are you the culprit I have been looking for?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    geoffw said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. Did anyone have gammon for lunch?

    Gammon for lunch? Sacrilege! It requires the respect of being the main meal of the day at dinner time.... (and a decent gap from the breakfast bacon buttie.....)

    The mid-day meal is dinner. The evening meal is tea. And the late evening meal is supper.

    Gammon in the morning, gammon in the evening, gammon at supper time.
    Be my little gammon and love me all the time.
    Sugary schmalz, but gamine perhaps.
    The Gamine Man by expressingyourtruth on Polyvore

    “The Gamin man has a boyish face and body with a jaunty stride, and is perpetually young looking. You are a rather formal dresser and tend to be rather fashion conscious with an eye for detail… Though youthful looking, your clothes are always fitted and neat.” Carole Jackson

    As opposed to the gabardine mackintosh man.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    I can't watch videos as I have no earphones about my person – can you answer my question?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,093

    Andrew said:

    @mods : you might want to know that PB currently is running those scam bitcoin adverts, with the fake Dragon's Den quotes. I know you probably have little influence over what ads google choose there, but might be worth looking at (especially since they're getting sued for the fake endorsements by Peter Jones).

    I think you get profiled for the ads. I am not seeing Bitcoin ones and I suspect if my shopping choices were generally displayed at the top of PB there would be little activity in the threads below.

    :D:D:D
    Yes the ads say more about the user's browsing habits than PB.
    Didn't someone complain about Russian Bride ads a while back?
    I must have missed it whilst lingerie shopping :D:D
    Not happy.

    I have been getting adverts for the Ford scrappage scheme (though scrapping Fords is an excellent idea...) and Smart Toilets, whatever they are. Been researching Health Cash Plans and House Refurbishments.

    Lingerie would be far preferable.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Ms. Anazina, yes, but you're so frightfully offended at the lightest teasing, that isn't even aimed at you, I fear it would upset you.

    Of course, I could mention you'd be a more rounded individual if you'd spent a few months in China, but being condescending based on where you've spent holidays would be the hallmark of a dreadful snob. So I won't.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Lib Dems take over Portsmouth Council from Tories
    http://www.portsmouthlibdems.org.uk/news
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Totally off topic, anyone who wants to hear an incredible singer look up Mike Masse and watch some of his videos recorded in a pizza restaurant in Salt Lake City. He does covers which are simply out of this world, especially when you consider where he is playing! His version of Toto's Africa is scarily good!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Mr. Eagles, call yourself a Yorkshireman?

    The midday meal is dinner (or lunch).

    The evening meal is tea.

    That sounds like metropolitan liberal elite talk to me.

    I'm prolier than thou.
    You were lucky....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    The HOC has voted down the second attempt by the Lords for Leveson inquiry 2
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    TOPPING said:

    AndyJS said:

    Good afternoon. Did anyone have gammon for lunch?

    Gammon for lunch? Sacrilege! It requires the respect of being the main meal of the day at dinner time.... (and a decent gap from the breakfast bacon buttie.....)
    Well you know what people apparently routinely have with gammon, don't you.

    Edit: https://harvester.co.uk/mainmenu
    You will forever be PizzaTopping in my heart....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. NorthWales, huzzah!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    FF43 said:


    Cameron should have pushed for and got a better deal. The referendum was lost when he came back from Europe waving a piece of paper as if it meant anything.

    Voting for a Brexit deal that is guaranteed to be a downgrade on the status quo because someone failed to improve on the status quo in another deal is the most spiteful of nose cut offs. The baselines are different. Cameron's baseline was the status quo. Brexit has zero as the baseline.
    The status quo did not exist. Moreover improvements or downgrades are purely subjective. You will always consider Brexit to be a downgrade no matter what.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    MattW said:

    Andrew said:

    @mods : you might want to know that PB currently is running those scam bitcoin adverts, with the fake Dragon's Den quotes. I know you probably have little influence over what ads google choose there, but might be worth looking at (especially since they're getting sued for the fake endorsements by Peter Jones).

    I think you get profiled for the ads. I am not seeing Bitcoin ones and I suspect if my shopping choices were generally displayed at the top of PB there would be little activity in the threads below.

    :D:D:D
    Yes the ads say more about the user's browsing habits than PB.
    Didn't someone complain about Russian Bride ads a while back?
    I must have missed it whilst lingerie shopping :D:D
    Not happy.

    I have been getting adverts for the Ford scrappage scheme (though scrapping Fords is an excellent idea...) and Smart Toilets, whatever they are. Been researching Health Cash Plans and House Refurbishments.

    Lingerie would be far preferable.
    I too am less than convinced by how well the web companies know my interests. Civil engineering or worthy Broadway plays mostly. Some lingerie would be welcome...

  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    The HOC has voted down the second attempt by the Lords for Leveson inquiry 2

    Thank goodness. Those who voted for it should be ashamed of themselves.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    OT I am sure PB Royalists will want to be ready for a scorching Royal Wedding street party with some appropriate swimwear:

    https://twitter.com/kassyapple/status/995620549446561792?s=19
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Foxy, being pro-royal doesn't mean being pro-everything related to the Royal Family.

    Those swimsuits aren't quite as bad as John's reign, to be fair.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Dr. Foxy, being pro-royal doesn't mean being pro-everything related to the Royal Family.

    Those swimsuits aren't quite as bad as John's reign, to be fair.

    One hopes they keep a closer hold on the crown jewels, for one thing.
  • flubadubflubadub Posts: 20
    > When Lib Dems won the Aylesbury Vale Council it was primarily through winning wards in Aylesbury not so much in the rural Buckingham constituency.

    Yes, the 1995 Aylesbury Vale result was LD 30, C 12, Lab 5, Ind 8.

    In terms of breakdown, it was:

    Aylesbury constituency: LD 23, C 3, Lab1
    Buckingham constituency: LD 10, C 9, Lab 4, Ind 8

    In 2015 the Lib Dems won just one Buckingham councillor, in Winslow.

    It's fairly obviously not 1995, and the Lib Dems stand no chance at all, especially as at Westminster even in more fruitful Aylesbury, Lib Dem voters now vote Labour, with Lib Dems winning under 10% in 2015.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Flubadub, cheers for that info. Does look good for the blues, although I'd still be surprised if there were said by-election.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Foxy said:

    MattW said:

    Andrew said:

    @mods : you might want to know that PB currently is running those scam bitcoin adverts, with the fake Dragon's Den quotes. I know you probably have little influence over what ads google choose there, but might be worth looking at (especially since they're getting sued for the fake endorsements by Peter Jones).

    I think you get profiled for the ads. I am not seeing Bitcoin ones and I suspect if my shopping choices were generally displayed at the top of PB there would be little activity in the threads below.

    :D:D:D
    Yes the ads say more about the user's browsing habits than PB.
    Didn't someone complain about Russian Bride ads a while back?
    I must have missed it whilst lingerie shopping :D:D
    Not happy.

    I have been getting adverts for the Ford scrappage scheme (though scrapping Fords is an excellent idea...) and Smart Toilets, whatever they are. Been researching Health Cash Plans and House Refurbishments.

    Lingerie would be far preferable.
    I too am less than convinced by how well the web companies know my interests. Civil engineering or worthy Broadway plays mostly. Some lingerie would be welcome...

    They throw in a few duds just to avoid spooking you
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Ms. Anazina, yes, but you're so frightfully offended at the lightest teasing, that isn't even aimed at you, I fear it would upset you.

    Of course, I could mention you'd be a more rounded individual if you'd spent a few months in China, but being condescending based on where you've spent holidays would be the hallmark of a dreadful snob. So I won't.

    You've really never been to London?
    That's quite the badge of honour among some folk.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Ms. Anazina, yes, but you're so frightfully offended at the lightest teasing, that isn't even aimed at you, I fear it would upset you.

    Of course, I could mention you'd be a more rounded individual if you'd spent a few months in China, but being condescending based on where you've spent holidays would be the hallmark of a dreadful snob. So I won't.

    I'm not offended. I merely asked you a question to which I have yet to receive an answer. You mentioned holidays. I didn't.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. rkrkrk, I'm not much of a traveller. I suspect some of the buildings would be great to see. I'm not boycotting London.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Foxy said:

    OT I am sure PB Royalists will want to be ready for a scorching Royal Wedding street party with some appropriate swimwear:

    https://twitter.com/kassyapple/status/995620549446561792?s=19

    The brunette with the long hair needs to work on her bikini line.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    I get adverts for fintech courses and sheds. I can attest that algorithms are vastly overrated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Anazina said:

    I get adverts for fintech courses and sheds. I can attest that algorithms are vastly overrated.

    Genuinely absolubtely zip for me.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Mr. rkrkrk, I'm not much of a traveller. I suspect some of the buildings would be great to see. I'm not boycotting London.

    If you have friends to stay with and ideally cook with then it can be done cheap.
    Plenty of free museums and sights to see as you wander round.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    I get adverts for fintech courses and sheds. I can attest that algorithms are vastly overrated.

    Genuinely absolubtely zip for me.
    Not even between the politicalbetting.com banner and the title of the article?
    I'm being advertised quarrying equipment... which I sort of see why they made that mistake.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    NEW THREAD

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anazina said:

    I get adverts for fintech courses and sheds. I can attest that algorithms are vastly overrated.

    Genuinely absolubtely zip for me.
    Not even between the politicalbetting.com banner and the title of the article?
    I'm being advertised quarrying equipment... which I sort of see why they made that mistake.
    I'm getting adverts for the PB podcast. That's (partly) why I'm here. :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    New thread.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Anazina said:

    Nick, there is nothing left wing per se about being republican. Richard Littlejohn is a republican, for example. Indeed, republicanism often sprouts from notions of meritocracy, which is not a particularly socialist principle.

    It could be argued that monarchism is hard-left – after all, the Royal Family is the beneficiary of the world's most generous welfare programme!

    Rubbish, support for the monarchy is the very essence of conservatism, even more than free market economics which has historically been most closely the preserve of liberals
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    currystar said:

    Totally off topic, anyone who wants to hear an incredible singer look up Mike Masse and watch some of his videos recorded in a pizza restaurant in Salt Lake City. He does covers which are simply out of this world, especially when you consider where he is playing! His version of Toto's Africa is scarily good!

    Was there pineapple on the pizza?
This discussion has been closed.