Any Tory leadership candidate promising to take us out of the customs union will have a big advantage.
Tory leadership candidates promising to take us out of the customs union will have a big advantage up until the point when they have to act on that promise. As Theresa May has found out.
At some point the Brexit music will stop and whoever is in post will accept the status quo at the time the music does stop.
It is beginning to look as though the music will stop with the UK in an open-ended "transition" period outside the EU political structure but inside almost everything else.
Three weeks on and the London results are starting to make a little more sense. Labour failed to break the 50% number forecast in some polls - complacency among its supporters or a response to the anti-Semitism meme ?
The "spin" was about the party failing in Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster and that's not insignificant in wider electoral terms but Labour still gained 60 Councillors and one Council (Tower Hamlets) and is now entrenched in its 21 councils with either huge majorities or 100% control. The Mayoral contests were all comfortably won (Newham by 73 to 12) as well. Labour are represented on every Council bar the ones held by the LDs as the anti-Conservative vote.
For the Conservatives, the spin of "success" hides a more complex and mixed story. Yes, the holding of Barnet in particular (and Wandsworth and Westminster) as well was noteworthy but the party lost Kingston and Richmond to the LDs and failed to take back Sutton, Harrow or Havering. 100 Councillors were lost and its worth noting places like Redbridge, Croydon, Enfield and Merton, where the Conservatives were competitive not so long ago, they are a long way behind.
For the Liberal Democrats, too, it was a mixed night. Holding Sutton and gaining Kingston and Richmond were the big stories (as well as a nice few gains in Merton) but the bulk of the LD Councillors in London are in the four Boroughs mentioned and elsewhere there were tiny islands of progress surrounded by vast seas of moribund wasteland. 23 of London's 32 Boroughs have no LD Councillors (the Conservatives are only absent on 6 by comparison) and that's a concern.
For the Greens, it was disappointing apart from Lambeth where four gains makes them the official Opposition (as they are on Islington) while UKIP's existence in London (which, in comparison to other areas was weak with only 12 Councillors) was erased with the Party as a whole getting fewer votes than ASPIRE, one of the factions in Tower Hamlets.
For the Independents, a poor night. Yes, 24 survived in Havering and two ex-Conservatives held on in Biggin Hill and three new Independents took seats from the LDs in Beddington North but that's about your lot.
Perhaps the message from the 2018 elections wasn't about how much changed but how little.
50% was a very steep target, given substantial pockets of support for Lib Dems, Greens and local parties, plus 30% who always vote Conservative.
On topic, the LibDems didn't put up three candidates in every ward across London, and in a fair few didn't stand. You would expect this to have overstated their poll rating slightly.
Did we see the first signs that Labour supporters just might contemplate voting tactically for the Lib Dems where they had a chance of defeating the Tories? The Labour vote in Richmond, for example, was about 2.1% down on 2014 at a time when Labour was polling higher. This might explain some of Labour's under performance and give the Lib Dems hope that the worst of the electoral damage of the Coalition era is at last behind them.
Something like that may have happened in Surbiton!
Turnbull’s a more interesting character, with a better back-story, than Cameron, though.
Turnbull is one of the richest men in Australia certainly but policy wise there is virtually no difference between him and Cameron apart from Turnbull, unlike most of his more monarchist party, is a republican but even there you could say that mirrors Cameron being pro EU in a eurosceptic party
The issue in Australian politics is that both main parties are socialist. It comes from the combination of compulsory voting, three year parliamentary terms, AV and the Senate which has equal powers to the lower house.
This is probably a dream scenario for some, but in reality it means that every discussion is of the lowest common denominator. An election campaign in Australia consists of each main party going out EVERY day and promising to spend more money than the other lot on whichever favoured group they can find. Every discussion is about how the 'average' Australian (who pays no net tax after their endless benefit handouts for almost everyone) can get even more money whilst the evil better off have to pay more and more because that is 'fair'. Nobody, and especially not the Liberals, ever fight this. It is just a competition in pointless handouts and bigger deficits.
Short terms and the inability to get anything through both houses means that both parties have exactly the same core policies and have no ability to even consider anything remotely unpopular. Virtually nothing of note ever happens politically except the latest party regicide attempt. Voters just take it in turns dishing out ever more spectacular defeats for whichever party has been in 'power' for a while.
Turnbull is a classic Cameron that's for sure - thinks he is so smart that he deserved to be PM but having got there doesn't have the slightest idea what he wants to do.
Australia was very lucky during the resource boom but it is hard to explain how shallow the economy is - it LOOKS like a first World country but apart from resources and food nothing is made here that anyone else wants - Australia has one of the lowest economic complexities in the World (87th).
The problem was that when the big reforms were made in the 80s, here they were made by a Labour Government. So they were never done properly. As a result, Unions still run the Australian Labor Party and most parts of the Government. Real competition in Australia is very rare, prices are very high and virtually every policy objective is based on building up a housing boom, preferably forever.
But it is a great place to live and at least we run our own country and make our own mistakes! And, somehow, we manage to get absolutely every good that we want from overseas (which is almost everything) through both customs and quarantine every day without the whole place grinding to a halt. How is that even possible???
This is the tricky bit. For a Brexit deal to work, it has to be permanent and with significant sanctions for breaking it. On the other hand Leavers, and I think the British public generally, won't wear a restrictive deal unless there is a plausible possibility of moving on from it. This can't actually be fudged. Smoke and mirrors doesn't work here.
God, sometimes I am glad we have Barnier to deal with. He could have accepted this fudge and probably stretched it out forever, but no, he has to ask the impossible. He is my best hope of a real Brexit now.
His proposal merits looking at in depth. As does anything that might get us out of this terrifying mess.
But I would say on first glance it smacks of over complication. It would require every single homeowner over 65 to enter into some form of equity release with all the attendant paperwork and complications of stuff like, presumably, assessing value of a property. Unless I am missing something.
Why not just reduce some of the £1m free from IHT (if a property passing to kids etc etc)?
It may need more detail but would certainly be more palatable to most Tory voters than reversing most of Osborne's inheritance tax cut
That depends on how big their financial assets are.
£30k is a lot of money compared to the average house value in Mansfield or Copeland or Middlesbrough South.
Whereas few people in such places will be needing the full inheritance tax threshold.
£30k not a lot to levy homeowners for. £50k not a lot to put students in debt for.
Many will disagree.
I agree on students but the question was on a forced choice which would be more damaging to the Tories ie another dementia tax plan or reversing Osborne's inheritance tax cut or a £30k equity release to fund an insurance scheme for social care. It would in my view unquestionably be the former as the 2017 and 2015 general election results confirm
My solution, which is not original, is to abolish IHT altogether. "Why should we have to pay tax on our after tax savings etc".
But the recipients of inheritances should pay income tax on their inheritances (as unearned income) which seems fair. Perhaps with an allowance of £x to take small inheritances out of the net, and a rate of 45% on trusts. This should raise more money than the current scheme and be seen as fairer and may encourage a bigger spread of inheritances.
I'd also remove the anomaly of over-65s not paying NI. That would raise a few billion, is simple, and seems fair.
Yes, seems reasonable to me. Inheritance tax paid by the recipient, perhaps as a form of CGT.
This is the tricky bit. For a Brexit deal to work, it has to be permanent and with significant sanctions for breaking it. On the other hand Leavers, and I think the British public generally, won't wear a restrictive deal unless there is a plausible possibility of moving on from it. This can't actually be fudged. Smoke and mirrors doesn't work here.
God, sometimes I am glad we have Barnier to deal with. He could have accepted this fudge and probably stretched it out forever, but no, he has to ask the impossible. He is my best hope of a real Brexit now.
You've not spent much time considering the Irish question, then, I see.
This is the tricky bit. For a Brexit deal to work, it has to be permanent and with significant sanctions for breaking it. On the other hand Leavers, and I think the British public generally, won't wear a restrictive deal unless there is a plausible possibility of moving on from it. This can't actually be fudged. Smoke and mirrors doesn't work here.
God, sometimes I am glad we have Barnier to deal with. He could have accepted this fudge and probably stretched it out forever, but no, he has to ask the impossible. He is my best hope of a real Brexit now.
I think a "real Brexit", ie crash out, is possible. Thing is, I don't think it's a "solution". In fact it will focus minds very quickly on a deal, possibly in that case including full EU membership. Leavers do need Brexit to be tolerable, IMO.
Why not just reduce some of the £1m free from IHT (if a property passing to kids etc etc)?
It may need more detail but would certainly be more palatable to most Tory voters than reversing most of Osborne's inheritance tax cut
That depends on how big their financial assets are.
£30k is a lot of money compared to the average house value in Mansfield or Copeland or Middlesbrough South.
Whereas few people in such places will be needing the full inheritance tax threshold.
£30k not a lot to levy homeowners for. £50k not a lot to put students in debt for.
Many will disagree.
I agree on students but the question was on a forced choice which would be more damaging to the Tories ie another dementia tax plan or reversing Osborne's inheritance tax cut or a £30k equity release to fund an insurance scheme for social care. It would in my view unquestionably be the former as the 2017 and 2015 general election results confirm
My solution, which is not original, is to abolish IHT altogether. "Why should we have to pay tax on our after tax savings etc".
But the recipients of inheritances should pay income tax on their inheritances (as unearned income) which seems fair. Perhaps with an allowance of £x to take small inheritances out of the net, and a rate of 45% on trusts. This should raise more money than the current scheme and be seen as fairer and may encourage a bigger spread of inheritances.
I'd also remove the anomaly of over-65s not paying NI. That would raise a few billion, is simple, and seems fair.
Yes, seems reasonable to me. Inheritance tax paid by the recipient, perhaps as a form of CGT.
Yes but you'd have to adjust the rates of CGT (18%, 28%) to ensure you didn't lose tax revenue. I picked income tax (20%, 40%, 45%) to match IHT (40%).
This is the tricky bit. For a Brexit deal to work, it has to be permanent and with significant sanctions for breaking it. On the other hand Leavers, and I think the British public generally, won't wear a restrictive deal unless there is a plausible possibility of moving on from it. This can't actually be fudged. Smoke and mirrors doesn't work here.
God, sometimes I am glad we have Barnier to deal with. He could have accepted this fudge and probably stretched it out forever, but no, he has to ask the impossible. He is my best hope of a real Brexit now.
I think a "real Brexit", ie crash out, is possible. Thing is, I don't think it's a "solution". In fact it will focus minds very quickly on a deal, possibly in that case including full EU membership. Leavers do need Brexit to be tolerable, IMO.
Crash out = hard border between NI & RoI. TMay has committed to no hard border. Not that I suppose another u-turn at this point would be much to write home about. But as my several posts (!) yesterday described, that would be IMO a very very bad outcome for the UK.
Why not just reduce some of the £1m free from IHT (if a property passing to kids etc etc)?
It may need more detail but would certainly be more palatable to most Tory voters than reversing most of Osborne's inheritance tax cut
That depends on how big their financial assets are.
£30k is a lot of money compared to the average house value in Mansfield or Copeland or Middlesbrough South.
Whereas few people in such places will be needing the full inheritance tax threshold.
£30k not a lot to levy homeowners for. £50k not a lot to put students in debt for.
Many will disagree.
I agree on students but the question was on a forced choice which would be more damaging to the Tories ie another dementia tax plan or reversing Osborne's inheritance tax cut or a £30k equity release to fund an insurance scheme for social care. It would in my view unquestionably be the former as the 2017 and 2015 general election results confirm
My solution, which is not original, is to abolish IHT altogether. "Why should we have to pay tax on our after tax savings etc".
But the recipients of inheritances should pay income tax on their inheritances (as unearned income) which seems fair. Perhaps with an allowance of £x to take small inheritances out of the net, and a rate of 45% on trusts. This should raise more money than the current scheme and be seen as fairer and may encourage a bigger spread of inheritances.
I'd also remove the anomaly of over-65s not paying NI. That would raise a few billion, is simple, and seems fair.
Yes, seems reasonable to me. Inheritance tax paid by the recipient, perhaps as a form of CGT.
Yes but you'd have to adjust the rates of CGT (18%, 28%) to ensure you didn't lose tax revenue. I picked income tax (20%, 40%, 45%) to match IHT (40%).
So long as the recipient can rollit into their pension pot...........
Why not just reduce some of the £1m free from IHT (if a property passing to kids etc etc)?
It may need more detail but would certainly be more palatable to most Tory voters than reversing most of Osborne's inheritance tax cut
That depends on how big their financial assets are.
£30k is a lot of money compared to the average house value in Mansfield or Copeland or Middlesbrough South.
Whereas few people in such places will be needing the full inheritance tax threshold.
£30k not a lot to levy homeowners for. £50k not a lot to put students in debt for.
Many will disagree.
I agree on students but the question was on a forced choice which would be more damaging to the Tories ie another dementia tax plan or reversing Osborne's inheritance tax cut or a £30k equity release to fund an insurance scheme for social care. It would in my view unquestionably be the former as the 2017 and 2015 general election results confirm
My solution, which is not original, is to abolish IHT altogether. "Why should we have to pay tax on our after tax savings etc".
But the recipients of inheritances should pay income tax on their inheritances (as unearned income) which seems fair. Perhaps with an allowance of £x to take small inheritances out of the net, and a rate of 45% on trusts. This should raise more money than the current scheme and be seen as fairer and may encourage a bigger spread of inheritances.
I'd also remove the anomaly of over-65s not paying NI. That would raise a few billion, is simple, and seems fair.
Yes, seems reasonable to me. Inheritance tax paid by the recipient, perhaps as a form of CGT.
Yes but you'd have to adjust the rates of CGT (18%, 28%) to ensure you didn't lose tax revenue. I picked income tax (20%, 40%, 45%) to match IHT (40%).
So long as the recipient can rollit into their pension pot...........
This is the tricky bit. For a Brexit deal to work, it has to be permanent and with significant sanctions for breaking it. On the other hand Leavers, and I think the British public generally, won't wear a restrictive deal unless there is a plausible possibility of moving on from it. This can't actually be fudged. Smoke and mirrors doesn't work here.
God, sometimes I am glad we have Barnier to deal with. He could have accepted this fudge and probably stretched it out forever, but no, he has to ask the impossible. He is my best hope of a real Brexit now.
It is best to negotiate with them from the outside. If Barnier can prise off our limpet-like attachment to the rusty hull then so much the better.
Mrs C, worth recalling a majority voted to leave *and* broadcast media is biased the other way (guests on AQ, QT, Marr, etc being heavily slanted on the Remain side).
May will be out by next summer if she doesn't grow a set pretty soon.
And then what?
None of the Brexiteers actually want to grasp the thistle of leaving.
They want someone else to make it work, or someone else to take the blame for it not working
As it says in many china shops "If you break it, you own it!"
Maybe we should put that on the side of a bus and drive it through Leave areas until they figure it out
Most Leave areas wouldn't be bothered if NI has a hard border or not, or if Ireland reunified. Many would not be bothered by Lorry parks in Essex or Kent either.
Mr. 43, depends. If the EU is seen as being to blame, it may harden opinion against them.
My point is blame isn't a solution. I think it quite likely the EU will end up being hated on these shores, but we will still go along with it. Perhaps the EU will be hated precisely because we will go along with it. They probably don't care very much. The UK is no longer a member and so its opinions matter much less.
May will be out by next summer if she doesn't grow a set pretty soon.
And then what?
None of the Brexiteers actually want to grasp the thistle of leaving.
They want someone else to make it work, or someone else to take the blame for it not working
As it says in many china shops "If you break it, you own it!"
Maybe we should put that on the side of a bus and drive it through Leave areas until they figure it out
Most Leave areas wouldn't be bothered if NI has a hard border or not, or if Ireland reunified. Many would not be bothered by Lorry parks in Essex or Kent either.
Probably true. But they will be bothered if they cannot fly to their sun-soaked holidays in The Med without long delays at customs just like when they had to queue back in the good old days when people dreamed of trashing red tape and having a borderless Europe
Mrs C, worth recalling a majority voted to leave *and* broadcast media is biased the other way (guests on AQ, QT, Marr, etc being heavily slanted on the Remain side).
A pedantic point perhaps, but surely "broadcast" is not "press"? Thus the rise of the generic term "media" ...
Mr. 43, if the political class (here) is seen to buckle and agree to a contemptible deal, that will, most likely, have very significant consequences.
A big question will be what Grieve's 'meaningful vote' actually means. The berk himself said he had no idea [and if 'berk' offends the delicate sensibilities of some here, I'd point out that describing a man who puts forward an amendment and who, shortly thereafter, admits he has no idea what the implications of said amendment and vote passing would be as a berk is to use the politest of the four letter words available].
Your point about this potentially not being a good situation for anyone may very well prove true.
Edited extra bit: Mrs C, yes... but that isn't really relevant to either of our posts, and doesn't change their meaning.
They're really petrified of us diverging, aren't they. Bless
Petrified is probably overstating it. The EU's primary goal for a Brexit deal, beyond pushing the UK out with the least further damage to them, is to keep the UK in its regulatory orbit. That means any Brexit deal rules out divergence. The rest is up for discussion.
Mr. 43, depends. If the EU is seen as being to blame, it may harden opinion against them.
Even if it is actually the British Government and the Conservative Party's fault, there will be plenty of people around to spin that the EU was actually to blame.
This is the tricky bit. For a Brexit deal to work, it has to be permanent and with significant sanctions for breaking it. On the other hand Leavers, and I think the British public generally, won't wear a restrictive deal unless there is a plausible possibility of moving on from it. This can't actually be fudged. Smoke and mirrors doesn't work here.
God, sometimes I am glad we have Barnier to deal with. He could have accepted this fudge and probably stretched it out forever, but no, he has to ask the impossible. He is my best hope of a real Brexit now.
You've not spent much time considering the Irish question, then, I see.
There is no problem dealing with the NI border. Crash out makes it harder due to lack of planning but:
- UK declares unilateral free trade for 12 month period with everyone. All goods can cross the NI and other UK borders free of checks as long as the importer declares compliance with UK(EU) regulations. - UK maintains voluntary compliance with EU goods regulations for this period. Trades with EU on WTO basis. - UK customs do random inspections in NI with major traders and at Irish sea crossing and at border ports to monitor compliance. - As at present, the main place to check compliance with regulations is at point of sale - need large increase in compliance monitoring. - Massive and punitive fines and sentences for importing non-compliant items without prior approval. - Use the 12 months to set up Maxfac lite - basically a trusted trader scheme plus online customs declarations. - Offer all countries a continuation of the zero tariff regime IF they agree to a services protocol which allows UK access to their markets and agree to arbitration procedure for anti-dumping. Imports then to comply with new UK regulations. - Use the GBP 40bn saved from the EU bribe to soften the blow for UK industry, especially manufacturing. No state aid rules anymore, we can do what we like. Instant writeoff of investment for tax and R&D, maybe a permanently lower corporation tax for these sectors. - Suggest to ROI that they spend the time coming up with a mutual maxfac border of their own, but it is up to them what they impose. - After 12 months, reintroduce more traditional border controls for those nations who do not want to continue to trade tariff-free and continue to develop maxfac technology. It doesn't have to be perfect all at once - the issue at the moment is the EUs demands, but in a crashout it is up to us.
I am not a big believer in unilateral free trade myself, but in a crashout situation it might have its uses - after all, the long term game for the UK is to export services, not goods.
My solution, which is not original, is to abolish IHT altogether. "Why should we have to pay tax on our after tax savings etc".
But the recipients of inheritances should pay income tax on their inheritances (as unearned income) which seems fair. Perhaps with an allowance of £x to take small inheritances out of the net, and a rate of 45% on trusts. This should raise more money than the current scheme and be seen as fairer and may encourage a bigger spread of inheritances.
I'd also remove the anomaly of over-65s not paying NI. That would raise a few billion, is simple, and seems fair.
Yes, seems reasonable to me. Inheritance tax paid by the recipient, perhaps as a form of CGT.
Yes but you'd have to adjust the rates of CGT (18%, 28%) to ensure you didn't lose tax revenue. I picked income tax (20%, 40%, 45%) to match IHT (40%).
They propose a lifetime allowance (could be a bit tricky), 20% - 30% rates on inheritance/gifts above that, and related changes (mostly abolition) to current reliefs.
I'm not sure about these latest Bercow rude to Leadsom allegations; I can't believe he would be so short with his colleagues.
Think back to when he was the darling of the Monday club. He was renowned for his curt (and at the time quite inventive) putdowns. I suspect age has removed the inventiveness and just left him with the bile.
There is no problem dealing with the NI border. Crash out makes it harder due to lack of planning but:
- UK declares unilateral free trade for 12 month period with everyone. All goods can cross the NI and other UK borders free of checks as long as the importer declares compliance with UK(EU) regulations. - UK maintains voluntary compliance with EU goods regulations for this period. Trades with EU on WTO basis. - UK customs do random inspections in NI with major traders and at Irish sea crossing and at border ports to monitor compliance. - As at present, the main place to check compliance with regulations is at point of sale - need large increase in compliance monitoring. - Massive and punitive fines and sentences for importing non-compliant items without prior approval. - Use the 12 months to set up Maxfac lite - basically a trusted trader scheme plus online customs declarations. - Offer all countries a continuation of the zero tariff regime IF they agree to a services protocol which allows UK access to their markets and agree to arbitration procedure for anti-dumping. Imports then to comply with new UK regulations. - Use the GBP 40bn saved from the EU bribe to soften the blow for UK industry, especially manufacturing. No state aid rules anymore, we can do what we like. Instant writeoff of investment for tax and R&D, maybe a permanently lower corporation tax for these sectors. - Suggest to ROI that they spend the time coming up with a mutual maxfac border of their own, but it is up to them what they impose. - After 12 months, reintroduce more traditional border controls for those nations who do not want to continue to trade tariff-free and continue to develop maxfac technology. It doesn't have to be perfect all at once - the issue at the moment is the EUs demands, but in a crashout it is up to us.
I am not a big believer in unilateral free trade myself, but in a crashout situation it might have its uses - after all, the long term game for the UK is to export services, not goods.
Interesting ideas. Brexiteers are correct that unilateral dismantling of import controls makes the Irish border an EU problem. The issue though is that Dover becomes OUR problem. This plan shutters trade out of the UK into the EU. It kills industries in the UK that rely on supply chains or are highly regulated: car manufacturing, aviation manufacturing, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and farming and fishing that relies on exports. The context is a fullscale economic and political crisis.
May will be out by next summer if she doesn't grow a set pretty soon.
And then what?
None of the Brexiteers actually want to grasp the thistle of leaving.
They want someone else to make it work, or someone else to take the blame for it not working
As it says in many china shops "If you break it, you own it!"
Maybe we should put that on the side of a bus and drive it through Leave areas until they figure it out
Most Leave areas wouldn't be bothered if NI has a hard border or not, or if Ireland reunified. Many would not be bothered by Lorry parks in Essex or Kent either.
Probably true. But they will be bothered if they cannot fly to their sun-soaked holidays in The Med without long delays at customs just like when they had to queue back in the good old days when people dreamed of trashing red tape and having a borderless Europe
There is no problem dealing with the NI border. Crash out makes it harder due to lack of planning but:
- UK declares unilateral free trade for 12 month period with everyone. All goods can cross the NI and other UK borders free of checks as long as the importer declares compliance with UK(EU) regulations. - UK maintains voluntary compliance with EU goods regulations for this period. Trades with EU on WTO basis. - UK customs do random inspections in NI with major traders and at Irish sea crossing and at border ports to monitor compliance. - As at present, the main place to check compliance with regulations is at point of sale - need large increase in compliance monitoring. - Massive and punitive fines and sentences for importing non-compliant items without prior approval. - Use the 12 months to set up Maxfac lite - basically a trusted trader scheme plus online customs declarations. - Offer all countries a continuation of the zero tariff regime IF they agree to a services protocol which allows UK access to their markets and agree to arbitration procedure for anti-dumping. Imports then to comply with new UK regulations. - Use the GBP 40bn saved from the EU bribe to soften the blow for UK industry, especially manufacturing. No state aid rules anymore, we can do what we like. Instant writeoff of investment for tax and R&D, maybe a permanently lower corporation tax for these sectors. - Suggest to ROI that they spend the time coming up with a mutual maxfac border of their own, but it is up to them what they impose. - After 12 months, reintroduce more traditional border controls for those nations who do not want to continue to trade tariff-free and continue to develop maxfac technology. It doesn't have to be perfect all at once - the issue at the moment is the EUs demands, but in a crashout it is up to us.
I am not a big believer in unilateral free trade myself, but in a crashout situation it might have its uses - after all, the long term game for the UK is to export services, not goods.
Interesting ideas. Brexiteers are correct that unilateral dismantling of import controls makes the Irish border an EU problem. The issue though is that Dover becomes OUR problem. This plan shutters trade out of the UK into the EU. It kills industries in the UK that rely on supply chains or are highly regulated: car manufacturing, aviation manufacturing, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and farming and fishing that relies on exports. The context is a fullscale economic and political crisis.
God, sometimes I am glad we have Barnier to deal with. He could have accepted this fudge and probably stretched it out forever, but no, he has to ask the impossible. He is my best hope of a real Brexit now.
You've not spent much time considering the Irish question, then, I see.
There is no problem dealing with the NI border. Crash out makes it harder due to lack of planning but:
- UK declares unilateral free trade for 12 month period with everyone. All goods can cross the NI and other UK borders free of checks as long as the importer declares compliance with UK(EU) regulations. - UK maintains voluntary compliance with EU goods regulations for this period. Trades with EU on WTO basis. - UK customs do random inspections in NI with major traders and at Irish sea crossing and at border ports to monitor compliance. - As at present, the main place to check compliance with regulations is at point of sale - need large increase in compliance monitoring. - Massive and punitive fines and sentences for importing non-compliant items without prior approval. - Use the 12 months to set up Maxfac lite - basically a trusted trader scheme plus online customs declarations. - Offer all countries a continuation of the zero tariff regime IF they agree to a services protocol which allows UK access to their markets and agree to arbitration procedure for anti-dumping. Imports then to comply with new UK regulations. - Use the GBP 40bn saved from the EU bribe to soften the blow for UK industry, especially manufacturing. No state aid rules anymore, we can do what we like. Instant writeoff of investment for tax and R&D, maybe a permanently lower corporation tax for these sectors. - Suggest to ROI that they spend the time coming up with a mutual maxfac border of their own, but it is up to them what they impose. - After 12 months, reintroduce more traditional border controls for those nations who do not want to continue to trade tariff-free and continue to develop maxfac technology. It doesn't have to be perfect all at once - the issue at the moment is the EUs demands, but in a crashout it is up to us.
I am not a big believer in unilateral free trade myself, but in a crashout situation it might have its uses - after all, the long term game for the UK is to export services, not goods.
This is I think a step too far for the UK and its government, as currently constituted, to embrace, whatever the consequences as @FF43 has noted.
Kevin Schofield - @PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: No10 says the Prime Minister thinks John Bercow's alleged remarks about Andrea Leadsom are "unacceptable" and that any official complaint should be properly investigated. Pressure growing on the Speaker.
Interesting ideas. Brexiteers are correct that unilateral dismantling of import controls makes the Irish border an EU problem. The issue though is that Dover becomes OUR problem. This plan shutters trade out of the UK into the EU. It kills industries in the UK that rely on supply chains or are highly regulated: car manufacturing, aviation manufacturing, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and farming and fishing that relies on exports. The context is a fullscale economic and political crisis.
Political crisis between now and March 2019 pretty much nailed on I think. Whether or not there is an economic crisis as well depends on how close to the cliff edge we appear to be - at the moment the markets assume that nothing much will change in the UK's economic relationship with the EU for the forseeable future. If that assumption changes there will be panic and sterling will come under severe pressure.
May will be out by next summer if she doesn't grow a set pretty soon.
And then what?
None of the Brexiteers actually want to grasp the thistle of leaving.
They want someone else to make it work, or someone else to take the blame for it not working
As it says in many china shops "If you break it, you own it!"
Maybe we should put that on the side of a bus and drive it through Leave areas until they figure it out
Most Leave areas wouldn't be bothered if NI has a hard border or not, or if Ireland reunified. Many would not be bothered by Lorry parks in Essex or Kent either.
Probably true. But they will be bothered if they cannot fly to their sun-soaked holidays in The Med without long delays at customs just like when they had to queue back in the good old days when people dreamed of trashing red tape and having a borderless Europe
I went on holiday to the continent about five times before we joined the EEC and do not recall any queues or any dreams of trashing red tape. I also went to work in Germany for a couple of months without any red tape or border delays.
Kevin Schofield - @PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: No10 says the Prime Minister thinks John Bercow's alleged remarks about Andrea Leadsom are "unacceptable" and that any official complaint should be properly investigated. Pressure growing on the Speaker.
One person's short temper is another person's passion.
I've backed Harry to have a beard at 1.80. He might tidy it up a bit but I don't think he'll clean shave.
Not sure about military uniform at 1.13, I mean its highly likely but is it enough over 88% probability to be worth a bet ?
He's only a Captain in the Tin Bellies isn't he? Even in his No. 1s he'll look a steward on a transagean ferry.
Plenty of aiguillette action will make it seem much smarter.
What's the rules for wearing them in the army? In the RN I recall it was only for aide-de-camps, equerries and other such beneath contempt rear echelon arse lickers. And various admirals.
So what title will the Queen bestow on Prince Harry and Meghan Markle?
If she disapproves of the marriage I suspect she'll make them the Duke and Duchess of Oxford.
If she really loves and approves of them the Duke and Duchess of Sheffield or Yorkshire.
What will their Scottish titles be Baron and Baroness Gorbals?
In the spirit of seeking to have the minimum possible friction at the Irish border, she should make them Duke and Duchess of Connaught.
14/1 at Betfair.
Duke and Duchess of Windsor at 25/1
Connaught is obviously out because it’s in Ireland. Jeez, who’s putting money in that? Windsor is surely out for historical reasons.
Duke of Sussex is still vacant. This would be the “traditional” choice. Duke of Clarence or Albany would be the recherche option.
If the royals want to be bang up-to-date, they’d choose a modern industrial city. Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow are already extant aristocratic titles, so they’re out. Sheffield, Leeds and Birmingham are theoretically available.
I've backed Harry to have a beard at 1.80. He might tidy it up a bit but I don't think he'll clean shave.
Not sure about military uniform at 1.13, I mean its highly likely but is it enough over 88% probability to be worth a bet ?
He's only a Captain in the Tin Bellies isn't he? Even in his No. 1s he'll look a steward on a transagean ferry.
Plenty of aiguillette action will make it seem much smarter.
What's the rules for wearing them in the army? In the RN I recall it was only for aide-de-camps, equerries and other such beneath contempt rear echelon arse lickers. And various admirals.
Yes, all those.
And Royal Princes.
And a quick google tells me that he might be wearing his Rorlmreen outfit as Captain General (who knew?) so that's your dept.
So what title will the Queen bestow on Prince Harry and Meghan Markle?
If she disapproves of the marriage I suspect she'll make them the Duke and Duchess of Oxford.
If she really loves and approves of them the Duke and Duchess of Sheffield or Yorkshire.
What will their Scottish titles be Baron and Baroness Gorbals?
In the spirit of seeking to have the minimum possible friction at the Irish border, she should make them Duke and Duchess of Connaught.
14/1 at Betfair.
Duke and Duchess of Windsor at 25/1
Connaught is obviously out because it’s in Ireland. Jeez, who’s putting money in that? Windsor is surely out for historical reasons.
Duke of Sussex is still vacant. This would be the “traditional” choice. Duke of Clarence or Albany would be the recherche option.
If the royals want to be bang up-to-date, they’d choose a modern industrial city. Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow are already extant aristocratic titles, so they’re out. Sheffield, Leeds and Birmingham are theoretically available.
Precedent. Last time one of our Princes married an American divorcee that's the title that was bestowed on them.
So what title will the Queen bestow on Prince Harry and Meghan Markle?
If she disapproves of the marriage I suspect she'll make them the Duke and Duchess of Oxford.
If she really loves and approves of them the Duke and Duchess of Sheffield or Yorkshire.
What will their Scottish titles be Baron and Baroness Gorbals?
In the spirit of seeking to have the minimum possible friction at the Irish border, she should make them Duke and Duchess of Connaught.
14/1 at Betfair.
Duke and Duchess of Windsor at 25/1
Connaught is obviously out because it’s in Ireland. Jeez, who’s putting money in that? Windsor is surely out for historical reasons.
Duke of Sussex is still vacant. This would be the “traditional” choice. Duke of Clarence or Albany would be the recherche option.
If the royals want to be bang up-to-date, they’d choose a modern industrial city. Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow are already extant aristocratic titles, so they’re out. Sheffield, Leeds and Birmingham are theoretically available.
Notable how some of this site’s leading Brexiteer and Neobrexiteers don’t live in the UK, or anywhere near it.
RCS1000, Carlotta, Sandpit and Archer to name a few.
Telling.
You forgot Max who was in Switzerland, though think he’s back now.
The funny thing that many also harangue Mr Meeks for having the effrontery to keep a holiday home in Hungary.
No one cares about Alastair having a house in Hungary
We do find it a little hypocritical of him to complain about how unpleasant and xenophobic the U.K. while choosing to spend so much of his time in Hungary...
I used to listen to Radio 5 up to last year when the BBC replaced the old sports and news channel with a version of Loose Women. But emoting rather than fact-reporting is what BBC journalism has become.
It happened very suddenly. I've been trying to find out if they've changed producer or had some research done that they're following. Neither apparently but it's becoming difficult to get British news that keeps you up to date if you're abroad
I listen to radio 4 / world service via internet radio and it works
So what title will the Queen bestow on Prince Harry and Meghan Markle?
If she disapproves of the marriage I suspect she'll make them the Duke and Duchess of Oxford.
If she really loves and approves of them the Duke and Duchess of Sheffield or Yorkshire.
What will their Scottish titles be Baron and Baroness Gorbals?
In the spirit of seeking to have the minimum possible friction at the Irish border, she should make them Duke and Duchess of Connaught.
14/1 at Betfair.
Duke and Duchess of Windsor at 25/1
Connaught is obviously out because it’s in Ireland. Jeez, who’s putting money in that? Windsor is surely out for historical reasons.
Duke of Sussex is still vacant. This would be the “traditional” choice. Duke of Clarence or Albany would be the recherche option.
If the royals want to be bang up-to-date, they’d choose a modern industrial city. Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow are already extant aristocratic titles, so they’re out. Sheffield, Leeds and Birmingham are theoretically available.
I'd go for the Duchess of Bangor
I prefer Meghan, Duchess of Wrexham.
I like Wrexham, I dated a girl from Wrexham, I loved spending a weekend up Wrexham with her.
The number of Leavers with fond memories of prancing freely across Europe in the late 1960s with flowers in their hair and imagining that there could be a return to their hippie youth is startling. The world has moved on and there can be no winding back the clock.
The number of Leavers with fond memories of prancing freely across Europe in the late 1960s with flowers in their hair and imagining that there could be a return to their hippie youth is startling. The world has moved on and there can be no winding back the clock.
Get your story straight. I thought Leavers didn't have passports and so, er, never left Blighty....
Paul Brand - @PaulBrandITV: MP loyal to Bercow tells me it’s Brexiteers who’ve been plotting to remove Speaker and claims Leadsom has been ‘briefing against him for weeks’ and ‘lost it’ over way he dealt with East Coast Rail announcement in Commons. Rival camps are quickly forming.
Paul Brand - @PaulBrandITV: MP loyal to Bercow tells me it’s Brexiteers who’ve been plotting to remove Speaker and claims Leadsom has been ‘briefing against him for weeks’ and ‘lost it’ over way he dealt with East Coast Rail announcement in Commons. Rival camps are quickly forming.
The Speaker joins the Lords, the judiciary, the BBC, the Bank of England, the universities, and the Good Friday Agreement on the list of British institutions to denigrate.
The number of Leavers with fond memories of prancing freely across Europe in the late 1960s with flowers in their hair and imagining that there could be a return to their hippie youth is startling. The world has moved on and there can be no winding back the clock.
Paul Brand - @PaulBrandITV: MP loyal to Bercow tells me it’s Brexiteers who’ve been plotting to remove Speaker and claims Leadsom has been ‘briefing against him for weeks’ and ‘lost it’ over way he dealt with East Coast Rail announcement in Commons. Rival camps are quickly forming.
The Speaker joins the Lords, the judiciary, the BBC, the Bank of England, the universities, and the Good Friday Agreement on the list of British institutions to denigrate.
Even before Brexit John Bercow reminded us of a female hygiene product and the bag that one might use to store used ones.
The number of Leavers with fond memories of prancing freely across Europe in the late 1960s with flowers in their hair and imagining that there could be a return to their hippie youth is startling. The world has moved on and there can be no winding back the clock.
Paul Brand - @PaulBrandITV: MP loyal to Bercow tells me it’s Brexiteers who’ve been plotting to remove Speaker and claims Leadsom has been ‘briefing against him for weeks’ and ‘lost it’ over way he dealt with East Coast Rail announcement in Commons. Rival camps are quickly forming.
The Speaker joins the Lords, the judiciary, the BBC, the Bank of England, the universities, and the Good Friday Agreement on the list of British institutions to denigrate.
Turnbull’s a more interesting character, with a better back-story, than Cameron, though.
Turnbull is one of the richest men in Australia certainly but policy wise there is vir Cameron being pro EU in a eurosceptic party
The issue in Australian politics is that both main parties are socialist. It comes from the combination of compulsory voting, three year parliamentary terms, AV and the Senate which has equal powers to the lower house.
This is probably a dream scenario for some, but in reality it means that Short terms and the inability to get anything through owest economic complexities in the World (87th).
The problem was that when the big reforms were made in the 80s, here they were made by a Labour Government. So they were never done properly. As a result, Unions still run the Australian Labor Party and most parts of the Government. Real competition in Australia is very rare, prices are very high and virtually every policy objective is based on building up a housing boom, preferably forever.
But it is a great place to live and at least we run our own country and make our own mistakes! And, somehow, we manage to get absolutely every good that we want from overseas (which is almost everything) through both customs and quarantine every day without the whole place grinding to a halt. How is that even possible???
Turnbull's party is not socialist it is liberal, his coalition partners the Nationals are small c rural conservatives, Labor are more social democratic and union dominated as you suggest but the only real socialist party in Australia is the Greens. One Nation offer the populist conservative alternative. Australia does have a problem at the moment with both parties offering giveaways but John Howard I think managed to leave a balanced budget as PM.
Australia I agree does need to diversify a bit more longer term but with one of the highest GDP per capitas and net asset wealths per person in the world and one of the the lowest population densities in the world and great weather at the moment as you say it is a great place to live and with English the main language too and a similar culture to the UK it is no surprise Australia is easily the biggest destination for UK emigrants
Paul Brand - @PaulBrandITV: MP loyal to Bercow tells me it’s Brexiteers who’ve been plotting to remove Speaker and claims Leadsom has been ‘briefing against him for weeks’ and ‘lost it’ over way he dealt with East Coast Rail announcement in Commons. Rival camps are quickly forming.
The Speaker joins the Lords, the judiciary, the BBC, the Bank of England, the universities, and the Good Friday Agreement on the list of British institutions to denigrate.
Or more likely, friends of Bercow are trying to obfuscate his bad behaviour and blame it on Brexit somehow. He's a complete nincompoop.
Can I just say what a nice gesture it is for Prince Charles to walk his future daughter-in-law down the aisle. Both welcoming and thoughtful. I hope the day goes well for Harry and Meghan. No need to go over the top just because they're Royals but it is nice to see people happy, to see how Harry has grown up into a fine young man and to wish them both well for the future.
My own son - who has had a very troubled time making the transition into adulthood (and is by no means completely out of the woods yet) - has started on his first proper job and is, touch wood etc, so far finding it interesting and enjoyable. It is so lovely seeing him excited and feeling hopeful.
One never stops worrying as a parent, of course, but to breathe a little sigh of relief is so precious. I imagine there must be some of that for his family in seeing Harry embark on such a momentous stage of life.
I hesitate ever to give parenting advice but to those with very young children all I would say is that the early years, hard as it may seem if you're in the middle of them, are easy. It is the teenage years and beyond which test you - and your children - in ways that you can never, in your wildest nightmares, imagine. I am grateful that all three are still speaking to me and happy to spend time in my company.
Can I just say what a nice gesture it is for Prince Charles to walk his future daughter-in-law down the aisle. Both welcoming and thoughtful. I hope the day goes well for Harry and Meghan. No need to go over the top just because they're Royals but it is nice to see people happy, to see how Harry has grown up into a fine young man and to wish them both well for the future.
My own son - who has had a very troubled time making the transition into adulthood (and is by no means completely out of the woods yet) - has started on his first proper job and is, touch wood etc, so far finding it interesting and enjoyable. It is so lovely seeing him excited and feeling hopeful.
One never stops worrying as a parent, of course, but to breathe a little sigh of relief is so precious. I imagine there must be some of that for his family in seeing Harry embark on such a momentous stage of life.
I hesitate ever to give parenting advice but to those with very young children all I would say is that the early years, hard as it may seem if you're in the middle of them, are easy. It is the teenage years and beyond which test you - and your children - in ways that you can never, in your wildest nightmares, imagine. I am grateful that all three are still speaking to me and happy to spend time in my company.
Good news re: your son! And agreed re: Charles, a very lovely, human thing to do.
Interesting ideas. Brexiteers are correct that unilateral dismantling of import controls makes the Irish border an EU problem. The issue though is that Dover becomes OUR problem. This plan shutters trade out of the UK into the EU. It kills industries in the UK that rely on supply chains or are highly regulated: car manufacturing, aviation manufacturing, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and farming and fishing that relies on exports. The context is a fullscale economic and political crisis.
I don't follow your logic. It will be far easier to get goods in and out of the UK is there is unilateral free trade. It won't kill manufacturing for one simple reason - if people are making goods that are already compliant with EU regulations then they are already being imported and the loss of tariff walls won't affect the UK manufacturers much, because for the goods we make they are already low (they generally protect French and German goods; funny that). And 12 months is not long enough for other manufacturers to change their goods to meet EU regulations, and they won't bother if they know the dropping of tariffs is only temporary.
Any components that are needed by UK manufacturers can pass straight into the UK, from the EU or anywhere else. The big question is whether the EU will try to block or slow UK exports but the question is - on what grounds? Components are not subject to tariffs anyway - they are levied on finished goods. The EU will know they are compliant with their regulations because we won't have changed them yet. So to block our exports would almost certainly involve them breaking WTO rules (as well as looking petty and stupid). Can't rule it out, but the UK Govt has 40 billion to help out people who might be affected.
Don't see a crisis at all. UK will get immediate benefit of not having CET and a headstart in FTA negotiations with a large number of countries.
Conservatives still 5% ahead of Labour with YouGov, 8 years into a Conservative Government.
And given the London polling outcomes this month, the Corbyn comfort blanket that polls will once again understate Labour GE support is looking a tad threadbare.
Paul Brand - @PaulBrandITV: MP loyal to Bercow tells me it’s Brexiteers who’ve been plotting to remove Speaker and claims Leadsom has been ‘briefing against him for weeks’ and ‘lost it’ over way he dealt with East Coast Rail announcement in Commons. Rival camps are quickly forming.
The Speaker joins the Lords, the judiciary, the BBC, the Bank of England, the universities, and the Good Friday Agreement on the list of British institutions to denigrate.
It isn't really about the position of speaker. If past speakers Weatherill, Boothroyd or future speaker Hoyle were in the chair there'd be no issue. Also I do not recall hearing anything about Brexit from the former black rod David Leakey either for or against. To dismiss all the alegations against Bercow as some sort of Brexiteer plot is lazy thinking, it is nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with bullying.
Can I just say what a nice gesture it is for Prince Charles to walk his future daughter-in-law down the aisle. Both welcoming and thoughtful. I hope the day goes well for Harry and Meghan. No need to go over the top just because they're Royals but it is nice to see people happy, to see how Harry has grown up into a fine young man and to wish them both well for the future.
My own son - who has had a very troubled time making the transition into adulthood (and is by no means completely out of the woods yet) - has started on his first proper job and is, touch wood etc, so far finding it interesting and enjoyable. It is so lovely seeing him excited and feeling hopeful.
One never stops worrying as a parent, of course, but to breathe a little sigh of relief is so precious. I imagine there must be some of that for his family in seeing Harry embark on such a momentous stage of life.
I hesitate ever to give parenting advice but to those with very young children all I would say is that the early years, hard as it may seem if you're in the middle of them, are easy. It is the teenage years and beyond which test you - and your children - in ways that you can never, in your wildest nightmares, imagine. I am grateful that all three are still speaking to me and happy to spend time in my company.
Congratulations and good luck to your son. He sounds a bit like mine.
Your post reminds me of Spike Milligan. Asked once what his greatest achievement was he said it was that his children still talked to him.
Back in London this weekend to finalise the wedding guest list and put a menu together. This is one of the advantages of keeping it small. We're able to have a really decent menu without breaking the bank.
Notable how some of this site’s leading Brexiteer and Neobrexiteers don’t live in the UK, or anywhere near it.
RCS1000, Carlotta, Sandpit and Archer to name a few.
Telling.
You forgot Max who was in Switzerland, though think he’s back now.
The funny thing that many also harangue Mr Meeks for having the effrontery to keep a holiday home in Hungary.
No one cares about Alastair having a house in Hungary
We do find it a little hypocritical of him to complain about how unpleasant and xenophobic the U.K. while choosing to spend so much of his time in Hungary...
I thought hypocrisy was saying one thing and doing another. Not sure saying one thing and going on holiday to a place where people say another really counts
Can I just say what a nice gesture it is for Prince Charles to walk his future daughter-in-law down the aisle. Both welcoming and thoughtful. I hope the day goes well for Harry and Meghan. No need to go over the top just because they're Royals but it is nice to see people happy, to see how Harry has grown up into a fine young man and to wish them both well for the future.
My own son - who has had a very troubled time making the transition into adulthood (and is by no means completely out of the woods yet) - has started on his first proper job and is, touch wood etc, so far finding it interesting and enjoyable. It is so lovely seeing him excited and feeling hopeful.
One never stops worrying as a parent, of course, but to breathe a little sigh of relief is so precious. I imagine there must be some of that for his family in seeing Harry embark on such a momentous stage of life.
I hesitate ever to give parenting advice but to those with very young children all I would say is that the early years, hard as it may seem if you're in the middle of them, are easy. It is the teenage years and beyond which test you - and your children - in ways that you can never, in your wildest nightmares, imagine. I am grateful that all three are still speaking to me and happy to spend time in my company.
Meghan's mother will still accompany her on the journey to the Chapel
Notable how some of this site’s leading Brexiteer and Neobrexiteers don’t live in the UK, or anywhere near it.
RCS1000, Carlotta, Sandpit and Archer to name a few.
Telling.
You forgot Max who was in Switzerland, though think he’s back now.
The funny thing that many also harangue Mr Meeks for having the effrontery to keep a holiday home in Hungary.
No one cares about Alastair having a house in Hungary
We do find it a little hypocritical of him to complain about how unpleasant and xenophobic the U.K. while choosing to spend so much of his time in Hungary...
I thought hypocrisy was saying one thing and doing another. Not sure saying one thing and going on holiday to a place where people say another really counts
Paul Brand - @PaulBrandITV: MP loyal to Bercow tells me it’s Brexiteers who’ve been plotting to remove Speaker and claims Leadsom has been ‘briefing against him for weeks’ and ‘lost it’ over way he dealt with East Coast Rail announcement in Commons. Rival camps are quickly forming.
The Speaker joins the Lords, the judiciary, the BBC, the Bank of England, the universities, and the Good Friday Agreement on the list of British institutions to denigrate.
It's Bercow's charmless personality, rather than his politics, that is driving this.
Paul Brand - @PaulBrandITV: MP loyal to Bercow tells me it’s Brexiteers who’ve been plotting to remove Speaker and claims Leadsom has been ‘briefing against him for weeks’ and ‘lost it’ over way he dealt with East Coast Rail announcement in Commons. Rival camps are quickly forming.
The Speaker joins the Lords, the judiciary, the BBC, the Bank of England, the universities, and the Good Friday Agreement on the list of British institutions to denigrate.
It isn't really about the position of speaker. If past speakers Weatherill, Boothroyd or future speaker Hoyle were in the chair there'd be no issue. Also I do not recall hearing anything about Brexit from the former black rod David Leakey either for or against. To dismiss all the alegations against Bercow as some sort of Brexiteer plot is lazy thinking, it is nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with bullying.
So why is it the Brexiters leading the whispering campaign?
Notable how some of this site’s leading Brexiteer and Neobrexiteers don’t live in the UK, or anywhere near it.
RCS1000, Carlotta, Sandpit and Archer to name a few.
Telling.
You forgot Max who was in Switzerland, though think he’s back now.
The funny thing that many also harangue Mr Meeks for having the effrontery to keep a holiday home in Hungary.
No one cares about Alastair having a house in Hungary
We do find it a little hypocritical of him to complain about how unpleasant and xenophobic the U.K. while choosing to spend so much of his time in Hungary...
I thought hypocrisy was saying one thing and doing another. Not sure saying one thing and going on holiday to a place where people say another really counts
There is no problem dealing with the NI border. Crash out makes it harder due to lack of planning but:
- UK declares unilateral free trade for 12 month period with everyone. All goods can cross the NI and other UK borders free of checks as long as the importer declares compliance with UK(EU) regulations. - UK maintains voluntary compliance with EU goods regulations for this period. Trades with EU on WTO basis. - UK customs do random inspections in NI with major traders and at Irish sea crossing and at border ports to monitor compliance. - As at present, the main place to check compliance with regulations is at point of sale - need large increase in compliance monitoring. - Massive and punitive fines and sentences for importing non-compliant items without prior approval. - Use the 12 months to set up Maxfac lite - basically a trusted trader scheme plus online customs declarations. - Offer all countries a continuation of the zero tariff regime IF they agree to a services protocol which allows UK access to their markets and agree to arbitration procedure for anti-dumping. Imports then to comply with new UK regulations. - Use the GBP 40bn saved from the EU bribe to soften the blow for UK industry, especially manufacturing. No state aid rules anymore, we can do what we like. Instant writeoff of investment for tax and R&D, maybe a permanently lower corporation tax for these sectors. - Suggest to ROI that they spend the time coming up with a mutual maxfac border of their own, but it is up to them what they impose. - After 12 months, reintroduce more traditional border controls for those nations who do not want to continue to trade tariff-free and continue to develop maxfac technology. It doesn't have to be perfect all at once - the issue at the moment is the EUs demands, but in a crashout it is up to us.
I am not a big believer in unilateral free trade myself, but in a crashout situation it might have its uses - after all, the long term game for the UK is to export services, not goods.
Interesting ideas. Brexiteers are correct that unilateral dismantling of import controls makes the Irish border an EU problem. The issue though is that Dover becomes OUR problem. This plan shutters trade out of the UK into the EU. It kills industries in the UK that rely on supply chains or are highly regulated: car manufacturing, aviation manufacturing, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and farming and fishing that relies on exports. The context is a fullscale economic and political crisis.
Not sure how you see that. dismantling those import controls at Dover actually makes things better for our supply chains.
Paul Brand - @PaulBrandITV: MP loyal to Bercow tells me it’s Brexiteers who’ve been plotting to remove Speaker and claims Leadsom has been ‘briefing against him for weeks’ and ‘lost it’ over way he dealt with East Coast Rail announcement in Commons. Rival camps are quickly forming.
The Speaker joins the Lords, the judiciary, the BBC, the Bank of England, the universities, and the Good Friday Agreement on the list of British institutions to denigrate.
Except it is utter bollocks and you know it. There are MPs across the political divide and across the Brexit divide who think Bercow is useless and want rid of him. Blaming this on Brexit is just another stupid smear from unrequited Remoaners. You do yourself no favours by giving it credence.
Comments
Maybe an age thing ?
This is probably a dream scenario for some, but in reality it means that every discussion is of the lowest common denominator. An election campaign in Australia consists of each main party going out EVERY day and promising to spend more money than the other lot on whichever favoured group they can find. Every discussion is about how the 'average' Australian (who pays no net tax after their endless benefit handouts for almost everyone) can get even more money whilst the evil better off have to pay more and more because that is 'fair'. Nobody, and especially not the Liberals, ever fight this. It is just a competition in pointless handouts and bigger deficits.
Short terms and the inability to get anything through both houses means that both parties have exactly the same core policies and have no ability to even consider anything remotely unpopular. Virtually nothing of note ever happens politically except the latest party regicide attempt. Voters just take it in turns dishing out ever more spectacular defeats for whichever party has been in 'power' for a while.
Turnbull is a classic Cameron that's for sure - thinks he is so smart that he deserved to be PM but having got there doesn't have the slightest idea what he wants to do.
Australia was very lucky during the resource boom but it is hard to explain how shallow the economy is - it LOOKS like a first World country but apart from resources and food nothing is made here that anyone else wants - Australia has one of the lowest economic complexities in the World (87th).
The problem was that when the big reforms were made in the 80s, here they were made by a Labour Government. So they were never done properly. As a result, Unions still run the Australian Labor Party and most parts of the Government. Real competition in Australia is very rare, prices are very high and virtually every policy objective is based on building up a housing boom, preferably forever.
But it is a great place to live and at least we run our own country and make our own mistakes! And, somehow, we manage to get absolutely every good that we want from overseas (which is almost everything) through both customs and quarantine every day without the whole place grinding to a halt. How is that even possible???
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44165718
Maybe we should put that on the side of a bus and drive it through Leave areas until they figure it out
"We promise to facilitate first class medical care, including state of the art sensory deprivation chamber complete with comfortable furnishings."
"Commissar, that appears to be a coffin."
Overall, not a good situation for anyone.
If she disapproves of the marriage I suspect she'll make them the Duke and Duchess of Oxford.
If she really loves and approves of them the Duke and Duchess of Sheffield or Yorkshire.
What will their Scottish titles be Baron and Baroness Gorbals?
A big question will be what Grieve's 'meaningful vote' actually means. The berk himself said he had no idea [and if 'berk' offends the delicate sensibilities of some here, I'd point out that describing a man who puts forward an amendment and who, shortly thereafter, admits he has no idea what the implications of said amendment and vote passing would be as a berk is to use the politest of the four letter words available].
Your point about this potentially not being a good situation for anyone may very well prove true.
Edited extra bit: Mrs C, yes... but that isn't really relevant to either of our posts, and doesn't change their meaning.
- UK declares unilateral free trade for 12 month period with everyone. All goods can cross the NI and other UK borders free of checks as long as the importer declares compliance with UK(EU) regulations.
- UK maintains voluntary compliance with EU goods regulations for this period. Trades with EU on WTO basis.
- UK customs do random inspections in NI with major traders and at Irish sea crossing and at border ports to monitor compliance.
- As at present, the main place to check compliance with regulations is at point of sale - need large increase in compliance monitoring.
- Massive and punitive fines and sentences for importing non-compliant items without prior approval.
- Use the 12 months to set up Maxfac lite - basically a trusted trader scheme plus online customs declarations.
- Offer all countries a continuation of the zero tariff regime IF they agree to a services protocol which allows UK access to their markets and agree to arbitration procedure for anti-dumping. Imports then to comply with new UK regulations.
- Use the GBP 40bn saved from the EU bribe to soften the blow for UK industry, especially manufacturing. No state aid rules anymore, we can do what we like. Instant writeoff of investment for tax and R&D, maybe a permanently lower corporation tax for these sectors.
- Suggest to ROI that they spend the time coming up with a mutual maxfac border of their own, but it is up to them what they impose.
- After 12 months, reintroduce more traditional border controls for those nations who do not want to continue to trade tariff-free and continue to develop maxfac technology. It doesn't have to be perfect all at once - the issue at the moment is the EUs demands, but in a crashout it is up to us.
I am not a big believer in unilateral free trade myself, but in a crashout situation it might have its uses - after all, the long term game for the UK is to export services, not goods.
They propose a lifetime allowance (could be a bit tricky), 20% - 30% rates on inheritance/gifts above that, and related changes (mostly abolition) to current reliefs.
Am wondering about whether Harry's going to be clean shaven or not.
Not sure about military uniform at 1.13, I mean its highly likely but is it enough over 88% probability to be worth a bet ?
Duke and Duchess of Windsor at 25/1
Duke of Sussex is still vacant. This would be the “traditional” choice. Duke of Clarence or Albany would be the recherche option.
If the royals want to be bang up-to-date, they’d choose a modern industrial city. Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow are already extant aristocratic titles, so they’re out. Sheffield, Leeds and Birmingham are theoretically available.
And Royal Princes.
And a quick google tells me that he might be wearing his Rorlmreen outfit as Captain General (who knew?) so that's your dept.
Then negotiate from there - as we should have done from the start.
We do find it a little hypocritical of him to complain about how unpleasant and xenophobic the U.K. while choosing to spend so much of his time in Hungary...
I like Wrexham, I dated a girl from Wrexham, I loved spending a weekend up Wrexham with her.
Shameful.
How many 60s hippies have grow into leave voters?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Me_generation
Australia I agree does need to diversify a bit more longer term but with one of the highest GDP per capitas and net asset wealths per person in the world and one of the the lowest population densities in the world and great weather at the moment as you say it is a great place to live and with English the main language too and a similar culture to the UK it is no surprise Australia is easily the biggest destination for UK emigrants
Nonetheless.
Can I just say what a nice gesture it is for Prince Charles to walk his future daughter-in-law down the aisle. Both welcoming and thoughtful. I hope the day goes well for Harry and Meghan. No need to go over the top just because they're Royals but it is nice to see people happy, to see how Harry has grown up into a fine young man and to wish them both well for the future.
My own son - who has had a very troubled time making the transition into adulthood (and is by no means completely out of the woods yet) - has started on his first proper job and is, touch wood etc, so far finding it interesting and enjoyable. It is so lovely seeing him excited and feeling hopeful.
One never stops worrying as a parent, of course, but to breathe a little sigh of relief is so precious. I imagine there must be some of that for his family in seeing Harry embark on such a momentous stage of life.
I hesitate ever to give parenting advice but to those with very young children all I would say is that the early years, hard as it may seem if you're in the middle of them, are easy. It is the teenage years and beyond which test you - and your children - in ways that you can never, in your wildest nightmares, imagine. I am grateful that all three are still speaking to me and happy to spend time in my company.
Any components that are needed by UK manufacturers can pass straight into the UK, from the EU or anywhere else. The big question is whether the EU will try to block or slow UK exports but the question is - on what grounds? Components are not subject to tariffs anyway - they are levied on finished goods. The EU will know they are compliant with their regulations because we won't have changed them yet. So to block our exports would almost certainly involve them breaking WTO rules (as well as looking petty and stupid). Can't rule it out, but the UK Govt has 40 billion to help out people who might be affected.
Don't see a crisis at all. UK will get immediate benefit of not having CET and a headstart in FTA negotiations with a large number of countries.
Conservatives still 5% ahead of Labour with YouGov, 8 years into a Conservative Government.
And given the London polling outcomes this month, the Corbyn comfort blanket that polls will once again understate Labour GE support is looking a tad threadbare.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fhgs8okigo/TimesResults_180514_VI_Trackers_w.pdf
To dismiss all the alegations against Bercow as some sort of Brexiteer plot is lazy thinking, it is nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with bullying.
Your post reminds me of Spike Milligan. Asked once what his greatest achievement was he said it was that his children still talked to him.
Especially for Dr P:
http://railphotoprints.uk/p118298982/hAD1D63F#had1d63f
https://t.co/VXFY3kkV4a?amp=1