Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not another one. Oh for God’s sake, honestly I can’t stand thi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not another one. Oh for God’s sake, honestly I can’t stand this. There’s too much politics going on at the moment.

I wonder what Brenda from Bristol makes of this?https://t.co/Rts76OHAve pic.twitter.com/vAHTmJt15Z

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Things are very volatile.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    When's Mike on holiday this year?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    When's Mike on holiday this year?

    He has three holidays scheduled this year.

    One starting at the end of the month.

    One in August.

    One the week either side of Thanksgiving.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    The Tory calculation would be to exploit the deadlock and general mess - "give me a proper majority to sort it out". As the Trots used to say "the worse the better". The more exasperated people become, the more they might welcome the chance to sort it out.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I am not sure that an October election is a runner - simply because Parliament now needs to be sitting to facilitate an early Dissolution. For most of September Parliament will be in recess.November might be more likely.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    I am reading Fall Out.

    No way is Theresa May gonna call an election. Not unless there is a gun to her head.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    I am reading Fall Out.

    No way is Theresa May gonna call an election. Not unless there is a gun to her head.

    It might not be her choice.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Scott_P said:
    Perhaps we should have a referendum on banning national referendums and make it retrospective so previous results would be voided?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    When's Mike on holiday this year?

    He has three holidays scheduled this year.

    One starting at the end of the month.

    One in August.

    One the week either side of Thanksgiving.
    Turkey for Thanksgiving ....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The Commons returns on 5th September but goes back into pre-Conference recess on 14th September.There may be a small window of opportunity there.Effectively 6 weeks then needed before Polling Day.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    I am reading Fall Out.

    No way is Theresa May gonna call an election. Not unless there is a gun to her head.

    It might not be her choice.
    Theresa would stand down before having to go through that trauma again.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    If the deal is rejected by the House of Commons, Theresa May should propose a referendum on the deal. She should make it clear that rejection by the British public will be taken as a vote of no confidence and will lead to a general election.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    I am reading Fall Out.

    No way is Theresa May gonna call an election. Not unless there is a gun to her head.

    It might not be her choice.
    Theresa would stand down before having to go through that trauma again.
    Isn't this more of a threat?

    Unless you compromise, I'll go to the country. Either I lose, and your careers are over for five years, or I win, and they are over for five years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Theresa would stand down before having to go through that trauma again.

    The conference speech or the election? ;)
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    RoyalBlue said:

    If the deal is rejected by the House of Commons, Theresa May should propose a referendum on the deal. She should make it clear that rejection by the British public will be taken as a vote of no confidence and will lead to a general election.

    That would certainly be brave. It'd become a referendum on whether or not to hold a general election and nothing more.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see the Scots Tories are having a melt down about one of their own tripping and falling over on camera.

    Threatening physical violence at anyone who laughs being the highlight.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    If the deal is rejected by the House of Commons, Theresa May should propose a referendum on the deal. She should make it clear that rejection by the British public will be taken as a vote of no confidence and will lead to a general election.

    That would certainly be brave. It'd become a referendum on whether or not to hold a general election and nothing more.
    I don’t think the public wants another election. It would help the deal to win a majority.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    I am reading Fall Out.

    No way is Theresa May gonna call an election. Not unless there is a gun to her head.

    It might not be her choice.
    Theresa would stand down before having to go through that trauma again.
    Isn't this more of a threat?

    Unless you compromise, I'll go to the country. Either I lose, and your careers are over for five years, or I win, and they are over for five years.
    AIUI, Mr Osborne went in for that style of thing when persuading MPs of the value of Remaining.

    Haven't we had enough of that?

    Good afternoon, everybody.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not going to happen. It might be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it), it won't be the end of this Parliament.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    Not going to happen. It might be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it), it won't be the end of this Parliament.

    How would you see things proceeding if the Commons rejects the deal?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    If the government loses a vote of no confidence, I expect Jeremy Corbyn to form a minority government without an election.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RoyalBlue said:

    Not going to happen. It might be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it), it won't be the end of this Parliament.

    How would you see things proceeding if the Commons rejects the deal?
    Hard to tell. It would be exceptionally volatile. My best guess is that the Conservatives would regroup somehow. They might easily fracture though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Any general election called bfore Brexit is finalised is likely to lead to a repeat referendm.

    .....and this time the good guys should win....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    RoyalBlue said:

    Not going to happen. It might be the end of Theresa May (though I doubt it), it won't be the end of this Parliament.

    How would you see things proceeding if the Commons rejects the deal?
    The 'meaningful vote' would be meaningless if the public had already endorsed or rejected the deal in a referendum. The government has a string interest in referring it to the people first to avoid that position.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    "as Mrs May moves us to the softest of soft Brexits"

    This supposes that her Hard Brexit persona is just a front, which I doubt. Brexit is being dealt with very badly, with more and more talk of longer and longer transition phases, but there's no evidence that she and her team are shifting from their delusional belief in "Hard Brexit plus"(HB+), the "plus" being all the bespoke deals they think the EU will do with us that will somehow leave us with all the benefits of EU membership with none of the commitments. Schrödinger's Brexit, as it's been called.

    So I don't think that May would call an election in order to perpetrate "the softest of soft Brexits" - there's surely a huge majority in parliament already for such a thing. It's the emperor's new clothes of HB+ that is being assailed from all sides (and mainly by logic!) and which she might feel she needs extra support for.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Alex Neil's reasoning is not entirely sound. The Fixed Term Parliament Act requires that a specific No Confidence Motion would have to be moved - and passed - in order to trigger an early Dissolution. The PM no longer has the option of being able to treat a particular vote as an issue of Confidence.There is no way that Tories would support a No Confidence Vote on the floor of the House. Were they to do so they would lose the Whip and face deselection.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,670
    Alistair said:

    I see the Scots Tories are having a melt down about one of their own tripping and falling over on camera.

    Threatening physical violence at anyone who laughs being the highlight.

    Be a lot of physical violence going on then.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    If the government loses a vote of no confidence, I expect Jeremy Corbyn to form a minority government without an election.

    The changed Parliamentary arithmetic would certainly mean he is better placed to do that than had he tried to block May's election plans in April 2017.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    justin124 said:

    I am not sure that an October election is a runner - simply because Parliament now needs to be sitting to facilitate an early Dissolution. For most of September Parliament will be in recess.November might be more likely.

    A November election would be awful. Dark at 4pm or earlier grim cold. Perhaps we need a law that says elections can only be held during British summer time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2018
    If we are getting a very soft Brexit, then frankly those in favour of a hard Brexit should rebel and, regretfully, move us to a position whereby yet another bloody election ends up occurring. This is a vital issue for the country, which could well have impacts for decades, and it is their only shot. While I do not support a hard or crash out Brexit, they should not let fear of a Corbyn government dissuade them from this one in a lifetime moment to set the Brexit course. It would be very craven behaviour. If the opposition getting in, even a particularly bad one, is enough to accept a 'not real' Brexit, then clearly they weren't really that enamoured of a hard Brexit anyway.

    Like the article I don't see how May squares the circle - its why she needed a larger majority in the first place - but I don't see how another election would resolve matters. Even if it resulted in a change of government, it is not as though Labour are particularly coherent about what they want, it is just not as vital at the moment because they are not in government.

    I can only see the numbers being there for a Brexit option reliably if Labour back it, and they keep changing the goalposts so that's hard to see. Another election certainly seems more likely than a few months ago, but there's all manner of reasons to call the bluff of party critics and just do...something, since win or lose there is going to be trouble, and it is not like the public seem inclined to give any party an easy time with a nice cushy majority.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    brendan16 said:

    justin124 said:

    I am not sure that an October election is a runner - simply because Parliament now needs to be sitting to facilitate an early Dissolution. For most of September Parliament will be in recess.November might be more likely.

    A November election would be awful. Dark at 4pm or earlier grim cold. Perhaps we need a law that says elections can only be held during British summer time.
    The last November election was in 1935.We have had elections in December, January & February in 1910 (both Jan & Dec!), 1918 , 1923 1950 and 1974.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_P said:
    I seem to recall hearing this before, and it is awfully silly. We had one people's vote already, if another is wanted, fine, but if people are truly getting touchy about what it is called, that is not a great sign for the clarity of the question and arguments surrounding it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I have just watched the Barry Gardener interview - and thought he actually performed pretty well under pressure.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    A month ago people were saying May was safe til 2022 and might stand for a second term.

    The volatility of politics is only outpaced by the hype.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050
    brendan16 said:

    justin124 said:

    I am not sure that an October election is a runner - simply because Parliament now needs to be sitting to facilitate an early Dissolution. For most of September Parliament will be in recess.November might be more likely.

    A November election would be awful. Dark at 4pm or earlier grim cold. Perhaps we need a law that says elections can only be held during British summer time.
    But we could do with some betting opportunities other than speculating on non-entities as next PM.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    It would be very craven behaviour. If the opposition getting in, even a particularly bad one, is enough to accept a 'not real' Brexit, then clearly they weren't really that enamoured of a hard Brexit anyway.

    They really weren't.

    They were in favour of the sound bite. They are not in favour of any of the consequences.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    Is anyone here following the market for next Friday's Irish abortion referendum? The options are Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal. The latest Ipsos poll gives Yes 44 (-3) No 32 (+4), which disregarding DK, WS, WV gives 58-42 Yes, down from 63-37 Yes.

    The "wisdom of crowds" prediction (same poll) is 56-44 Yes. Don't knock it: such a poll got the Irish same-sex marriage referendum result exactly right, 62-38, when "how will you vote?" polls were predicting 70-30.

    Betfair current midprices are 1.16 Yes, 7.3 No.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Purple said:

    Is anyone here following the market for next Friday's Irish abortion referendum? The options are Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal. The latest Ipsos poll gives Yes 44 (-3) No 32 (+4), which disregarding DK, WS, WV gives 58-42 Yes, down from 63-37 Yes.

    The "wisdom of crowds" prediction (same poll) is 56-44 Yes. Don't knock it: such a poll got the Irish same-sex marriage referendum result exactly right, 62-38, when "how will you vote?" polls were predicting 70-30.

    Betfair current midprices are 1.16 Yes, 7.3 No.

    In the major betting even of the century for me I stand to lose nothing (no repeal) and stand to win £6.50 (repeal)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Purple said:

    Is anyone here following the market for next Friday's Irish abortion referendum? The options are Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal. The latest Ipsos poll gives Yes 44 (-3) No 32 (+4), which disregarding DK, WS, WV gives 58-42 Yes, down from 63-37 Yes.

    The "wisdom of crowds" prediction (same poll) is 56-44 Yes. Don't knock it: such a poll got the Irish same-sex marriage referendum result exactly right, 62-38, when "how will you vote?" polls were predicting 70-30.

    Betfair current midprices are 1.16 Yes, 7.3 No.

    In the major betting even of the century for me I stand to lose nothing (no repeal) and stand to win £6.50 (repeal)
    That's my kind of staking.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    Purple said:

    Is anyone here following the market for next Friday's Irish abortion referendum? The options are Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal. The latest Ipsos poll gives Yes 44 (-3) No 32 (+4), which disregarding DK, WS, WV gives 58-42 Yes, down from 63-37 Yes.

    The "wisdom of crowds" prediction (same poll) is 56-44 Yes. Don't knock it: such a poll got the Irish same-sex marriage referendum result exactly right, 62-38, when "how will you vote?" polls were predicting 70-30.

    Betfair current midprices are 1.16 Yes, 7.3 No.

    I wouldn't be surprised if No edged it. That's the value bet.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    edited May 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't matter what you call it, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck... Guess what?

    It is a duck? :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695

    When's Mike on holiday this year?

    He has three holidays scheduled this year.

    One starting at the end of the month.

    One in August.

    One the week either side of Thanksgiving.
    Theresa gets brought down end of the month/early June, new Con leader elected in August followed by a November general election.

    How's that sound? :D
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    The Tories could call the election on a slogan of 'Who Governs Britain?'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    GIN1138 said:

    When's Mike on holiday this year?

    He has three holidays scheduled this year.

    One starting at the end of the month.

    One in August.

    One the week either side of Thanksgiving.
    Theresa gets brought down end of the month/early June, new Con leader elected in August followed by a November general election.

    How's that sound? :D
    Throw in a Trump impeachment following a nuclear exchange on the Korean Peninsula and that sounds fab.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Interesting, Mr. Gin, that 'referendum' is now a naughty word.

    On-topic: May will actually have to have an idea of what leaving the EU looks like to call such a vote.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    Scott_P said:
    The public are positively Delphic on the topic. They want the vote to be respected; they don't want any real change and they certainly don't want to be asked to make choices. I suspect if a government said, this isn't going to work, we will cancel Brexit, a minority would be utterly outraged, more people would grumble but put up with it, and the rest will go "aw shucks."

    High risk, though, and the government would have to be very certain about its course of action. Both points that suggest that it won't happen.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    A safer bet is for the government to lose a second referendum on Scottish independence and thus remove the Scottish MPs from parliament. Then they could get their Brexit votes through parliament.

    Then have a third referendun (best of three argument) to have union with England again and re-instate the Scottish MPs.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sean_F said:

    Purple said:

    Is anyone here following the market for next Friday's Irish abortion referendum? The options are Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal. The latest Ipsos poll gives Yes 44 (-3) No 32 (+4), which disregarding DK, WS, WV gives 58-42 Yes, down from 63-37 Yes.

    The "wisdom of crowds" prediction (same poll) is 56-44 Yes. Don't knock it: such a poll got the Irish same-sex marriage referendum result exactly right, 62-38, when "how will you vote?" polls were predicting 70-30.

    Betfair current midprices are 1.16 Yes, 7.3 No.

    I wouldn't be surprised if No edged it. That's the value bet.
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsEU/status/998203717211099136
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    edited May 2018
    Opinium has an amusing Scottish subsample: SNP 40.0, Con 36.8, Lab 18.4, LD 2.4. (MOE: +/- 9 pts, with the usual caveats.)

    Plugging those into Baxter along with the GB findings of Con 43.0, Lab 38.5, LD 6.2, UKIP 3.6, Grn 3.2 gives the following House of Commons configuration:

    Con 335 (+17), Lab 249 (-13), SNP 37 (+2), LD 6 (-6), PC 4 (-), Grn 1 (-).
    => Con majority of 20.

    The SNP would lose five seats to the Tories (who would end up with 19 including East Lothian from Lab) while gaining six from Labour plus the LDs' Orkney & Shetland giving the nationalists a net gain of 2.

    Just a bit of fun. We could do with a proper Scotland poll soon (the last one was in March).

    As a side note, Opinium give the fractional results in their spreadsheet, and using one decimal place for each party gives the swing in GB since GE2017 to be exactly 1% Lab to Con (Con -0.5, Lab -2.5), so HYUFD was actually right there. :smile:
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    Call another election to "square the Brexit circle"? Hmm.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    In the spirit of 'oh no - not again!'

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/998212609257213953
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    The Tories could call the election on a slogan of 'Who Governs Britain?'


    Or better still
    Are we thinking what you're thinking?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    I'm on a 2018 GE at 9 and have just topped up a little at 5.

    Frankly, I think May will end up with no choice.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    edited May 2018
    "I suspect the Tories will take a hit if they force another election on the country, so that’s why it probably won’t happen."

    Under TMay, yes; under her successor, no. The ST scenario is that the GE will be called by a new leader.

    If the PCP can manage to send an "obvious" candidate and an "also ran" to the membership, the Tory lead would soar when the new leader does a John Major except not to the party but to the country. "I can lead, and I can lead well and powerfully in these troubled times. There's too much division in our country. That is why I will be seeking a mandate in a general election."

    The grey suited ones may even be able to do it without asking the membership. Some chatterers might dislike the idea of allowing the PCP to choose two prime ministers in a row, but outside of some parts of North London few would care, especially once the GE is declared.

    Ken Clarke can say vote Labour (although he won't be able to do an Enoch since he doesn't have a vote) but it will be JRM (or possibly Hunt or Gove but I doubt it) with his gurning chops on the front pages. Cue a massive new leader bounce.

    The present situation of a torn-apart minority PCP, relying on support from MPs from NI who care a lot about the Irish border and who aren't going to support a "fudge" (sellout) on that issue, and a government and even a cabinet that are perceived to be divided, directionless, and "led" by a leader who can't lead, cannot continue indefinitely. That situation is likely to be over before March 2019. So a 2018 GE sounds like a good bet at 5.

    As for TMay calling a GE, that won't happen. I don't believe that any top Tories would like to go into opposition, not because they aren't cynical enough, but because while it might be satisfying to hand the Brexit balls-up to Jeremy Corbyn the Tory party would then tear itself apart for real. To stay together it's got to stay in government.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    The Tories could call the election on a slogan of 'Who Governs Britain?'

    :lol:

    vs 'For the Many, not the Jew'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The Tories could call the election on a slogan of 'Who Governs Britain?'


    Or better still
    Are we thinking what you're thinking?
    And receive the answer 'How the f*** would we know, I have no idea what you're thinking'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    justin124 said:

    brendan16 said:

    justin124 said:

    I am not sure that an October election is a runner - simply because Parliament now needs to be sitting to facilitate an early Dissolution. For most of September Parliament will be in recess.November might be more likely.

    A November election would be awful. Dark at 4pm or earlier grim cold. Perhaps we need a law that says elections can only be held during British summer time.
    The last November election was in 1935.We have had elections in December, January & February in 1910 (both Jan & Dec!), 1918 , 1923 1950 and 1974.
    It's not ideal, but if the politics dictate it e.g. government collapse, there is little choice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    In the spirit of 'oh no - not again!'

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/998212609257213953

    The campaign for independence was ever paused?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    I am reading Fall Out.

    No way is Theresa May gonna call an election. Not unless there is a gun to her head.

    But her successor might.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    NeilVW said:

    Opinium has an amusing Scottish subsample: SNP 40.0, Con 36.8, Lab 18.4, LD 2.4. (MOE: +/- 9 pts, with the usual caveats.)

    Plugging those into Baxter along with the GB findings of Con 43.0, Lab 38.5, LD 6.2, UKIP 3.6, Grn 3.2 gives the following House of Commons configuration:

    Con 335 (+17), Lab 249 (-13), SNP 37 (+2), LD 6 (-6), PC 4 (-), Grn 1 (-).
    => Con majority of 20.

    The SNP would lose five seats to the Tories (who would end up with 19 including East Lothian from Lab) while gaining six from Labour plus the LDs' Orkney & Shetland giving the nationalists a net gain of 2.

    Just a bit of fun. We could do with a proper Scotland poll soon (the last one was in March).

    As a side note, Opinium give the fractional results in their spreadsheet, and using one decimal place for each party gives the swing in GB since GE2017 to be exactly 1% Lab to Con (Con -0.5, Lab -2.5), so HYUFD was actually right there. :smile:

    On the other hand, that Scottish subsample would rather imply little or no swing in England & Wales!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Given how close opinion is at the moment, and given the general British character, I think the safe bet is that any referendum or election in the near future will be lost by which ever side is perceived to have called it.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    It’s interesting that despite the escalating crisis, the public is against a second referendum by 57% to 43%.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Purple said:

    Is anyone here following the market for next Friday's Irish abortion referendum? The options are Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal. The latest Ipsos poll gives Yes 44 (-3) No 32 (+4), which disregarding DK, WS, WV gives 58-42 Yes, down from 63-37 Yes.

    The "wisdom of crowds" prediction (same poll) is 56-44 Yes. Don't knock it: such a poll got the Irish same-sex marriage referendum result exactly right, 62-38, when "how will you vote?" polls were predicting 70-30.

    Betfair current midprices are 1.16 Yes, 7.3 No.


    Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal?

    Too many double negatives for me. I hope the Irish understand.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    RoyalBlue said:

    It’s interesting that despite the escalating crisis, the public is against a second referendum by 57% to 43%.

    They're probably afraid Farage would win again.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    RoyalBlue said:

    It’s interesting that despite the escalating crisis, the public is against a second referendum by 57% to 43%.

    It would be interesting to know how many wanted the EU referendum in the first place?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Jonathan said:

    A month ago people were saying May was safe til 2022 and might stand for a second term.

    The volatility of politics is only outpaced by the hype.

    The awfulness and futility of May's position is outdone only by the same qualities in the alternatives in her Cabinet. The balance of equal weakness is what makes her position appear simultaneously so secure and yet so vulnerable.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Purple said:

    "I suspect the Tories will take a hit if they force another election on the country, so that’s why it probably won’t happen."

    Under TMay, yes; under her successor, no. The ST scenario is that the GE will be called by a new leader.

    If the PCP can manage to send an "obvious" candidate and an "also ran" to the membership, the Tory lead would soar when the new leader does a John Major except not to the party but to the country. "I can lead, and I can lead well and powerfully in these troubled times. There's too much division in our country. That is why I will be seeking a mandate in a general election."

    The grey suited ones may even be able to do it without asking the membership. Some chatterers might dislike the idea of allowing the PCP to choose two prime ministers in a row, but outside of some parts of North London few would care, especially once the GE is declared.

    Ken Clarke can say vote Labour (although he won't be able to do an Enoch since he doesn't have a vote) but it will be JRM (or possibly Hunt or Gove but I doubt it) with his gurning chops on the front pages. Cue a massive new leader bounce.

    The present situation of a torn-apart minority PCP, relying on support from MPs from NI who care a lot about the Irish border and who aren't going to support a "fudge" (sellout) on that issue, and a government and even a cabinet that are perceived to be divided, directionless, and "led" by a leader who can't lead, cannot continue indefinitely. That situation is likely to be over before March 2019. So a 2018 GE sounds like a good bet at 5.

    As for TMay calling a GE, that won't happen. I don't believe that any top Tories would like to go into opposition, not because they aren't cynical enough, but because while it might be satisfying to hand the Brexit balls-up to Jeremy Corbyn the Tory party would then tear itself apart for real. To stay together it's got to stay in government.

    Why doesn't Ken Clarke have a vote?

    I think it would be wrong to assume that a new leader would enjoy a 'massive' boost. Did that happen to Macmillan in January 1957? Or to Douglas-Home in October 1963? or to Callaghan in April 1976? Moreover, an election campaign would be at least 6 weeks long - and there is no guarantee that Corbyn would meekly agree to another early election , particularly as the Commons arithmetic makes it much easier to take that line.How keen would the DUP be for an early election given that a minority Government suits them fine?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    So she is in favour of being in both the single matrket and customs union.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2018

    Purple said:

    Is anyone here following the market for next Friday's Irish abortion referendum? The options are Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal. The latest Ipsos poll gives Yes 44 (-3) No 32 (+4), which disregarding DK, WS, WV gives 58-42 Yes, down from 63-37 Yes.

    The "wisdom of crowds" prediction (same poll) is 56-44 Yes. Don't knock it: such a poll got the Irish same-sex marriage referendum result exactly right, 62-38, when "how will you vote?" polls were predicting 70-30.

    Betfair current midprices are 1.16 Yes, 7.3 No.

    Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal?

    Too many double negatives for me. I hope the Irish understand.
    I’m not sure that « Are you in favour of killing unborn children? » would have got past whatever is the irish version of the electoral commission.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Len McCluskey doesn't seem to have moved on from the Bennite negotiating position based on cars and prosecco.
    https://twitter.com/pestononsunday/status/998137219394166784
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Doesn't matter what you call it, if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck... Guess what?

    It is a duck? :D
    It matters a great deal what you call it. Ditto airports, polytechnics, all other brands, all political notions.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited May 2018
    Mr. Purple, indeed, which is why the pro-referendum, pro-Remainers, who want to have a referendum on staying in after all, or a referendum on the deal itself, don't want the referendum to be called a referendum.

    This plan may be foiled by their opponents cunningly noticing it is, in fact, a referendum, and calling it a People's Vote is about as cunning as renaming the Constitution as the Lisbon Treaty.

    Edited for grammar.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    When's Mike on holiday this year?

    He has three holidays scheduled this year.

    One starting at the end of the month.

    One in August.

    One the week either side of Thanksgiving.
    Strokes chin.... the last one looks the most tempting...

    As for Chelsea, who will want to buy them? George O might have a chance to run a footie team too....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952
    RoyalBlue said:

    If the deal is rejected by the House of Commons, Theresa May should propose a referendum on the deal. She should make it clear that rejection by the British public will be taken as a vote of no confidence and will lead to a general election.

    How does that"making it clear" square with the Fixed Term Parliaments Act?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    The ERG are not going to topple May.
    Why would they? To do so would mean owning the highly unpredictable consequences.

    No, the government has set its position.
    We are staying in the customs union until at least 2022, and probably 9/10 of the single market, including the walks, talks, and barks like FOM.

    And the ERG will eat it, because it does after all get us “out”, and opens up the opportunity to diverge in the 2020s.

    The only challenge is from the EU. If they don’t sign off on the above - and as of now, they are pushing back on certain aspects, most awkwardly on whether there should be an end date to the arrangements above - then it really could be the end of May.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,050

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Interesting, Mr. Gin, that 'referendum' is now a naughty word.

    On-topic: May will actually have to have an idea of what leaving the EU looks like to call such a vote.

    What could possibly have convinced the public that referendums are a crap way of resolving issues?
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    So, let me see if I get this. Brexit is proving insoluble so the solution is a third General Election in three years, rather than a second referendum in which the facts are actually explained to the people this time?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    On what are excise duties paid - exports or imports? And where and when is the paperwork/inspection done? I had assumed the answer to both was upon import. If so, then the presence or absence of delays (and added costs) to UK manufacturers for their imported materials and parts would be entirely in the hands of the UK authorities. Am I missing something?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    The fact the main MPs talking up an early general election are hardline Brexiteers and colleagues of Rees Mogg confirms it won't happen, threatening to no confidence PM May and force an early general election are all talk, the fact is they do not have the numbers to topple May so this is all hot air.

    In any case with the polls showing little change from the last general election if a fractional swing to the Tories, an early general election would solve nothing anyway
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Foxy, the way the political class doesn't want to actually implement the result, rendering said vote potentially meaningless? Or the horrendous campaigns on either side? Or fatigue from having so many over a short period of time?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    NeilVW said:

    Opinium has an amusing Scottish subsample: SNP 40.0, Con 36.8, Lab 18.4, LD 2.4. (MOE: +/- 9 pts, with the usual caveats.)

    Plugging those into Baxter along with the GB findings of Con 43.0, Lab 38.5, LD 6.2, UKIP 3.6, Grn 3.2 gives the following House of Commons configuration:

    Con 335 (+17), Lab 249 (-13), SNP 37 (+2), LD 6 (-6), PC 4 (-), Grn 1 (-).
    => Con majority of 20.

    The SNP would lose five seats to the Tories (who would end up with 19 including East Lothian from Lab) while gaining six from Labour plus the LDs' Orkney & Shetland giving the nationalists a net gain of 2.

    Just a bit of fun. We could do with a proper Scotland poll soon (the last one was in March).

    As a side note, Opinium give the fractional results in their spreadsheet, and using one decimal place for each party gives the swing in GB since GE2017 to be exactly 1% Lab to Con (Con -0.5, Lab -2.5), so HYUFD was actually right there. :smile:

    Thankyou
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Foxy said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Interesting, Mr. Gin, that 'referendum' is now a naughty word.

    On-topic: May will actually have to have an idea of what leaving the EU looks like to call such a vote.

    What could possibly have convinced the public that referendums are a crap way of resolving issues?
    I know,1975 caused dissatisfaction for 40 year's
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    Purple said:

    Is anyone here following the market for next Friday's Irish abortion referendum? The options are Yes/No to a proposed pro-choice repeal. The latest Ipsos poll gives Yes 44 (-3) No 32 (+4), which disregarding DK, WS, WV gives 58-42 Yes, down from 63-37 Yes.

    The "wisdom of crowds" prediction (same poll) is 56-44 Yes. Don't knock it: such a poll got the Irish same-sex marriage referendum result exactly right, 62-38, when "how will you vote?" polls were predicting 70-30.

    Betfair current midprices are 1.16 Yes, 7.3 No.

    I expect Yes will win but I think the abortion referendum will be closer than the same sex marriage referendum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,708
    edited May 2018
    Over 17 million watched the royal wedding yesterday making it easily the most watched TV programme of the year so far (a position it will likely hold unless England reach the World Cup final in July).

    Though that was still less than the 26 million who watched the William and Kate wedding in 2011 or the 28 million who watched the Charles and Diana wedding in 1981
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5750091/More-17-million-tune-watch-Harry-wed-Meghan-BBC-wins-TV-royal-wedding-battle.html


  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    justin124 said:

    Purple said:

    "

    Why doesn't Ken Clarke have a vote?
    Sorry - I was thinking he was in the Lords!
    justin124 said:

    I think it would be wrong to assume that a new leader would enjoy a 'massive' boost. Did that happen to Macmillan in January 1957? Or to Douglas-Home in October 1963? or to Callaghan in April 1976? Moreover, an election campaign would be at least 6 weeks long - and there is no guarantee that Corbyn would meekly agree to another early election, particularly as the Commons arithmetic makes it much easier to take that line.How keen would the DUP be for an early election given that a minority Government suits them fine?

    None of those PMs was seen to have instigated the removal of their predecessor in the interests of the country, proceeding to call a GE right away. In the present parliament I couldn't imagine a Tory PM saying they want a GE and Corbyn saying no. The DUP will hate the idea of a GE, true, but they have little leverage to stop one.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Jeremy Thorpe as played by Hugh Grant starts tonight. It will be interesting to see if this series produces an uptick in LibDem polling by reminding people the yellow team exists; something Vince Cable's not had a lot of success at.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,501
    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The public are positively Delphic on the topic. They want the vote to be respected; they don't want any real change and they certainly don't want to be asked to make choices. I suspect if a government said, this isn't going to work, we will cancel Brexit, a minority would be utterly outraged, more people would grumble but put up with it, and the rest will go "aw shucks."

    High risk, though, and the government would have to be very certain about its course of action. Both points that suggest that it won't happen.
    You may be right but would we go back to where we were before the Brexit vote? My understanding from comments I remember at the time was that the EU27 saw our vote as a rejection of David Cameron's negotiation (so that was off the table) plus our rebate and retaining the pound were also gone. Would stopping Brexit mean more contributions plus adopting the Euro? Good luck to any UK government that tries to put us in that position.

    I genuinely believe that any Government that backs out of a meaningful Brexit will be seen by enough of the electorate as a refusal to carry out their instruction. If Nigel rode back over the hill we could have a populist plague-on-all-your-houses party like 5-star that could break our 2 party system wide open. Not sure what would happen then.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The public are positively Delphic on the topic. They want the vote to be respected; they don't want any real change and they certainly don't want to be asked to make choices. I suspect if a government said, this isn't going to work, we will cancel Brexit, a minority would be utterly outraged, more people would grumble but put up with it, and the rest will go "aw shucks."

    High risk, though, and the government would have to be very certain about its course of action. Both points that suggest that it won't happen.
    You may be right but would we go back to where we were before the Brexit vote? My understanding from comments I remember at the time was that the EU27 saw our vote as a rejection of David Cameron's negotiation (so that was off the table) plus our rebate and retaining the pound were also gone. Would stopping Brexit mean more contributions plus adopting the Euro? Good luck to any UK government that tries to put us in that position.

    I genuinely believe that any Government that backs out of a meaningful Brexit will be seen by enough of the electorate as a refusal to carry out their instruction. If Nigel rode back over the hill we could have a populist plague-on-all-your-houses party like 5-star that could break our 2 party system wide open. Not sure what would happen then.
    I think the EU would like us to call the whole thing off and stay in. So I think it is unlikely they would make demands that made that less likely.

    However, they were clear that in the event of a no vote, the concessions made to Cameron would be taken off the table, and they confirmed this the day after the referendum.

    They have said nothing about the Euro or the rebate. I think it is extremely unlikely they would insist on us joining the Euro. The rebate might be up for discussion as we start a new EU budget period.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Purple said:

    justin124 said:

    Purple said:

    "

    Why doesn't Ken Clarke have a vote?
    Sorry - I was thinking he was in the Lords!
    justin124 said:

    I think it would be wrong to assume that a new leader would enjoy a 'massive' boost. Did that happen to Macmillan in January 1957? Or to Douglas-Home in October 1963? or to Callaghan in April 1976? Moreover, an election campaign would be at least 6 weeks long - and there is no guarantee that Corbyn would meekly agree to another early election, particularly as the Commons arithmetic makes it much easier to take that line.How keen would the DUP be for an early election given that a minority Government suits them fine?

    None of those PMs was seen to have instigated the removal of their predecessor in the interests of the country, proceeding to call a GE right away. In the present parliament I couldn't imagine a Tory PM saying they want a GE and Corbyn saying no. The DUP will hate the idea of a GE, true, but they have little leverage to stop one.

    The DUP actually have a great deal of leverage. They might well prefer to have a minority Corbyn Government to an election that might produce a majority Government!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2018
    Fenman said:

    So, let me see if I get this. Brexit is proving insoluble so the solution is a third General Election in three years, rather than a second referendum in which the facts are actually explained to the people this time?

    As I recall the facts were explained last time. If you feel they were not explained very well that's another thing, or if you feel people ignored the facts and would not do so next time that's another. But let's not pretend all sides did not put their case; I'm sure we can all recall the deluge of information both sides put out there, and the sub factions within various sides. They did put the case, ergo the facts were explained to the people. No amount of concern at people ignoring them, or anger at the case being put badly, will change that.

    Why not rerun the GE on the basis that the 'facts' were not explained to the people? After all, had they been, the Tories/Labour would have won a majority easily! It's the only explanation, right?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    MTimT said:

    On what are excise duties paid - exports or imports? And where and when is the paperwork/inspection done? I had assumed the answer to both was upon import. If so, then the presence or absence of delays (and added costs) to UK manufacturers for their imported materials and parts would be entirely in the hands of the UK authorities. Am I missing something?
    You are right to say that customs levies are (generally) on imports.

    However it may not be within the UK's dominion to control them. So for example, if the UK were in a customs partnership with the UK, we would need import controls for goods entering from outside the UK in common with say France or Germany.

    If instead we were entirely outside the EU customs net, we'd have a measure more control but a measure more bureaucracy as we would be levying customs on all other countries (probably). There is no model of "maximum facilitation" that produces less difficulty than now, at least int he short-to-mid term.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Jeremy Thorpe as played by Hugh Grant starts tonight. It will be interesting to see if this series produces an uptick in LibDem polling by reminding people the yellow team exists; something Vince Cable's not had a lot of success at.

    Is it just me, or is the first thing that comes into one’s mind after the name Jeremy Thorpe, this work of genius?
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyos-M48B8U
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    kle4 said:

    Fenman said:

    So, let me see if I get this. Brexit is proving insoluble so the solution is a third General Election in three years, rather than a second referendum in which the facts are actually explained to the people this time?

    As I recall the facts were explained last time. If you feel they were not explained very well that's another thing, or if you feel people ignored the facts and would not do so next time that's another. But let's not pretend all sides did not put their case; I'm sure we can all recall the deluge of information both sides put out there, and the sub factions within various sides. They did put the case, ergo the facts were explained to the people. No amount of concern at people ignoring them, or anger at the case being put badly, will change that.

    Why not rerun the GE on the basis that the 'facts' were not explained to the people? After all, had they been, the Tories/Labour would have won a majority easily! It's the only explanation, right?
    The "facts" were not explained last time. There were plenty of scare stories on both sides. There were ambiguities and red herrings. There was lack of clarity of what the No vote would entail. There was almost complete ignorance about the difference between a customs union and the single market and what that entailed. There was no agreed plan for "No". There was a complete absence of actual facts.

    We now know roughly how much it will cost and how long it will take. We know roughly how much economic damage it will cause in the long run (though for some people that isn't the important consideration). We know a lot more about the problems of a frictionless Irish border and the arguments for and against a customs union and a single market. There is the outline of an actual deal. When the deal is clear enough there will be a concrete plan to put to people with clear pros and cons instead of the blizzard of misinformation and ignorance we had last time.

    I think you know that - but you don't trust the people because they may change their minds when they have the facts in front of them. That is profoundly undemocratic and elitist.
This discussion has been closed.