Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst y

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst young voters for first time since GE2017

The narrative that started following the shock general election result last June was that Corbyn and his party had managed tap into the youth vote who were turning out in greater numbers than at recent elections.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • JenSJenS Posts: 91
    First. Unlike JC.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    wow.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Oh (dear) Jeremy Corbyn.......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Far be it from me to add to the ammunition of Mrs May's detractors - but I'd say this was 'noise' rather than any great shift - look at the 18-34s immediate elders, and also the "volatility" in the subsamples' shifts from April:

    Best PM - May lead vs Corbyn (change vs April):

    OA: +13 (+1)
    M: +19 (+5)
    F: +8 (-1)
    18-34: +4 (+9)
    35-44: -6 (+2)
    45-54: +8 (-9)
    55-64: +19 (-6)
    65+: +39 (-3)

    I'm calling it as a 'blip' rather than a shift.....unless the enthusiasm of youth wears off faster than that of pre-middle age...but I suspect normal service will be resumed in June.

    One other oddity - in April Opinium had both the unweighted and weighted base sizes (showing the not untypical significant upweighting of difficult to reach younger voters from 249 >572) - doesn't appear in the May tables unless I've missed it. But more than doubling those sampled into representative cohort will introduce further instability - if this is what also happened in May.

    Yes, Mrs May could do with some good news. I'm not sure this is it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Although.....in bigger base groups:

    Best PM May vs Corbn - (vs April)

    Remain: -5 (+5)
    Leave: +32 (-1)

    So I think there is evidence that Corbyn is losing support among Remain voters - just it may be too soon to say its necessarily among the young.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    edited May 2018
    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    Although.....in bigger base groups:

    Best PM May vs Corbn - (vs April)

    Remain: -5 (+5)
    Leave: +32 (-1)

    So I think there is evidence that Corbyn is losing support among Remain voters - just it may be too soon to say its necessarily among the young.

    Maybe the talk of a soft brexit means Remain tories are going back to the Conservatives.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    Interesting, Maybe migration from poor countries (especially central/south America) has reduced in to the U.S. leading to lower births.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    Some background for others who like me needed it:

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/18/is-u-s-fertility-at-an-all-time-low-it-depends/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    nunuone said:

    Although.....in bigger base groups:

    Best PM May vs Corbn - (vs April)

    Remain: -5 (+5)
    Leave: +32 (-1)

    So I think there is evidence that Corbyn is losing support among Remain voters - just it may be too soon to say its necessarily among the young.

    Maybe the talk of a soft brexit means Remain tories are going back to the Conservatives.

    I don't think people are paying close attention 'Which one is the bigger shambles" may be more of a factor....
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    nunuone said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    Interesting, Maybe migration from poor countries (especially central/south America) has reduced in to the U.S. leading to lower births.
    U.S labor (sic) shortage. I guess this is what poor Trump voters voted for.

    https://www.dallasnews.com/news/immigration/2018/05/17/even-trump-tightens-immigration-us-labor-shortage-becoming-crisis
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    Some background for others who like me needed it:

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/01/18/is-u-s-fertility-at-an-all-time-low-it-depends/
    That is worth reading, however it is based on 2016 numbers. 2017 numbers came out on Friday, and showed a sharp reduction in births from 2016. (Donald Trump on the TV is clearly not an aphrodisiac.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    nunuone said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    Interesting, Maybe migration from poor countries (especially central/south America) has reduced in to the U.S. leading to lower births.
    There's probably an element of that. What's interesting about France, alone among developed countries, is that there's little difference in fertility rates between the college educated and the non-college educated. We (and the US, and most other places) have much lower fertility rates for educated women.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    TMay is not the best. She is only the better when the choice is limited to two. They ought to have "Somebody Else" if they want to be able to say that she is the "best".
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    It looks like Remainers have lost faith and who can be surprised. Ever since the Referendum we have been hanging on by our fingertips to the faint hope that Corbyn was our saviour from this trully appalling decision.

    That light has now flickered and gone and all we're left with is an aging throwback to the 70's. A USP you wouldn't wish on a contender for the leader of Unison. Lefties might still vote for him but without enthusiasm.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    PClipp said:

    TMay is not the best. She is only the better when the choice is limited to two. They ought to have "Somebody Else" if they want to be able to say that she is the "best".

    If you have two options, then the better option of the two is the 'best'.

    You can argue that the options are too limited, or that they are the wrong options, but perhaps we can blame that on the utter failure of Vince Cable to sell the Lib Dems as anything other than a hopeless single-issue party.

    The Lib Dems need to get rid of Cable. The only problem with that is the lack of candidates to take over ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    On para 5, maybe people have moved on from the ref sufficiently...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    The Lib Dems need to get rid of Cable. The only problem with that is the lack of candidates to take over ...

    It has to be a woman so Layla Moran seems like the obvious choice. Impeccably pro European and she could re-purpose Teardrop Explodes' "Leila Khaled Said" as her campaign song.

    Also she is of Palestinian heritage so JC will be moonstruck and give her whatever she wants in the inevitable coalition negotiations.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Pulpstar said:

    On para 5, maybe people have moved on from the ref sufficiently...

    I think that's right. Not only are there more immediate things for people to worry about, I get the impression that the non-obsessives on either side are fairly bored with it.

    If that is right, the question is whether it would remain the case through a GE campaign. It may well not.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    Roger said:

    It looks like Remainers have lost faith and who can be surprised. Ever since the Referendum we have been hanging on by our fingertips to the faint hope that Corbyn was our saviour from this trully appalling decision.

    That light has now flickered and gone and all we're left with is an aging throwback to the 70's. A USP you wouldn't wish on a contender for the leader of Unison. Lefties might still vote for him but without enthusiasm.

    Been telling you since for ever - Corbyn is Brexit's Bessy Mate.

    The great miracle of current politics is that Corbyn's plate keeps still keeps spinning with the very people who hate Brexit most. In any rational political world, they would have at least gone luke-warm on him. But perhaps that requires all hope to have been dashed and for Brexit to have happened before the scales will fall from their eyes.

    The idea that Corbyn was something new in politics was clerly risible. He was the same old same old, knowing full well he would not - could not - deliver that which his supporters expected of him. But he was happy to take their votes on the back of that delusion. The oldest trick in politics.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Corbyn has stopped talking about his retail offer recently, and instead retreated back into his core vote comfort zone of Karl Marx, ignoring the extremists in his own ranks, whilst also equivocating over Salisbury and doing dog-whistle republicanism.

    I suspect that has something to do with it. He could repeat the same trick twice, but you're only the new fresh thing on the menu once in politics, in my view.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    If I am reading the numbers from Carlotta downthread correctly May's overall lead has increased by all of 1%. That suggests to me that if these subsamples are any more than noise, and they may not be, then we are seeing an unwinding of the extreme positions between the elderly and the young.

    Given that the government has not reintroduced the dementia tax nor done anything good about student debt the most obvious cause of this is Brexit. Whether, as Roger says, the flickering hopes of remainers in Corbyn have finally been extinguished or people are just bored to tears about it is harder to say.

    It may be that May's positioning as the leader of a soft Brexit is attracting some remainers back into the Tory fold and, conversely, losing the odd hard Brexiteer. It is only the odd percent, and again it may just be noise, but there are some hints in recent polling that UKIP has a pulse, even if they don't in practice have any actual candidates.

    All in all, this doesn't seem to be too much to get excited about. It is about as great a condemnation of Corbyn as you could get that May is getting even modest boosts as best PM at the same time she is allowing speculation of an October election to float about because she can't get her own way in Parliament. But we are where we are as Blair used to say.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    After the whole saga around CD2E subsamples on here, I’m surprised that anyone taking the pollls seriously is continuing to pay serious attention to subsamples.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Also can’t believe that there’s October election talk. I hope May is not getting excited by polls again....
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,282

    PClipp said:

    TMay is not the best. She is only the better when the choice is limited to two. They ought to have "Somebody Else" if they want to be able to say that she is the "best".

    If you have two options, then the better option of the two is the 'best'.

    You can argue that the options are too limited, or that they are the wrong options, but perhaps we can blame that on the utter failure of Vince Cable to sell the Lib Dems as anything other than a hopeless single-issue party.

    The Lib Dems need to get rid of Cable. The only problem with that is the lack of candidates to take over ...
    People *should* vote in that way, but one great mistake New Labour and Ed Miliband made was to assume people behave in completely rational ways - or that they take the same view of what's rational. The assumption of both was that the anti-tory left would stick with the party or return to keep or kick the Tories out - they didn't, choosing the Lib Dems in 2010 and stayed away or voted green/snp/plaid/other in 2015. We could be seeing the start of this with Remainers and the centre-left - who have always held misgivings about Corbyn and distrusted him on the EU, but bit their tongue and backed Labour last year. There comes a point though where patience with his awfulness and total incoherence on Brexit runs out and people start to want to kick him and his smug acolytes as much as they do the Tories for their culpability in this mess.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Something we would be smart to emulate.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    How do they get that past equality legislation?

    While the SNP are past masters at bribing the middle class, not even they have tried that....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879

    Also can’t believe that there’s October election talk. I hope May is not getting excited by polls again....

    Seems ridiculous to me. What would May's rallying call be this time?

    "crush the saboteurs in my own party!"

    "Help me get a soft/hard brexit and face down JRM/Soubry [please delete as appropriate for your constituency]"
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    How are there so many 18 year olds with homes?
    Or do they just mean that live in a home owned by their family?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    rkrkrk said:

    Also can’t believe that there’s October election talk. I hope May is not getting excited by polls again....

    Seems ridiculous to me. What would May's rallying call be this time?

    "crush the saboteurs in my own party!"

    "Help me get a soft/hard brexit and face down JRM/Soubry [please delete as appropriate for your constituency]"
    I think it’s likely to centre on anti-Corbynism again, as opposed to anything Brexit related.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955
    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    How are there so many 18 year olds with homes?
    Or do they just mean that live in a home owned by their family?
    Given the alternative requires a bizarre number of 10 year old property owners, I think you must be right!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    edited May 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    How are there so many 18 year olds with homes?
    Or do they just mean that live in a home owned by their family?
    It is people who live in homes owned by a member of their family. It is written bellow the graph.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    rkrkrk said:

    Also can’t believe that there’s October election talk. I hope May is not getting excited by polls again....

    Seems ridiculous to me. What would May's rallying call be this time?

    "crush the saboteurs in my own party!"

    "Help me get a soft/hard brexit and face down JRM/Soubry [please delete as appropriate for your constituency]"
    "At least I'm not Corbyn!"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    I've not researched it but off the top of my head I think renting will be a largely spurious correlation made up by the fact that those who do are in urban environments where looking after children is more time intensive leading to smaller families, relationships are shorter resulting in less family units and job mobility is much greater resulting in less extended family support. As more of the population live like that in cities and less in family friendly suburbia the number of children falls.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,879
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    How are there so many 18 year olds with homes?
    Or do they just mean that live in a home owned by their family?
    It is people who live in homes owned by a member of their family. It is written bellow the graph.
    Ah okay. Does seem to suggest then that those with children are much more likely to own rather than rent vs. same age but without kids; given the higher proportion of children owning compared to young adults owning.

    Some of this is generation 'choose to rent' because they prefer the flexibility/want to live in high cost of living areas.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    rkrkrk said:

    Also can’t believe that there’s October election talk. I hope May is not getting excited by polls again....

    Seems ridiculous to me. What would May's rallying call be this time?

    "crush the saboteurs in my own party!"

    "Help me get a soft/hard brexit and face down JRM/Soubry [please delete as appropriate for your constituency]"
    Any such election would be as a result of a Brexit related collapse of government, an event that would make current polling obselete very quickly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Still not sure I take polls terribly seriously given recent performances.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    I've not researched it but off the top of my head I think renting will be a largely spurious correlation made up by the fact that those who do are in urban environments where looking after children is more time intensive leading to smaller families, relationships are shorter resulting in less family units and job mobility is much greater resulting in less extended family support. As more of the population live like that in cities and less in family friendly suburbia the number of children falls.
    Remarkable that so many young kids own homes in the US? ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    Is it the same for the UK ?
    My friend owns a house that he rents out, and rents another (In Leicester where he has a remarkably good size house for 700 a month... )
    Which side would he fall into ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    That's what the UK need to be considering after Brexit. Eugenics.

    Shutting the farmyard gate after the horse has bolted. Eugenics is what we needed before Brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still not sure I take polls terribly seriously given recent performances.

    If the London ones are right it is take the Tory and LD scores as correct and knock 4 PTS off Labour again. Which was the status quo ante pre Corbyn
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    I've not researched it but off the top of my head I think renting will be a largely spurious correlation made up by the fact that those who do are in urban environments where looking after children is more time intensive leading to smaller families, relationships are shorter resulting in less family units and job mobility is much greater resulting in less extended family support. As more of the population live like that in cities and less in family friendly suburbia the number of children falls.
    It would be interesting to see the UK equivalent of such a graph.

    My anecdata would suggest that Generation Rent put off having children, as indeed the student debt hangover may also contribute shortly. The young can only support so many non-working dependants.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    I've not researched it but off the top of my head I think renting will be a largely spurious correlation made up by the fact that those who do are in urban environments where looking after children is more time intensive leading to smaller families, relationships are shorter resulting in less family units and job mobility is much greater resulting in less extended family support. As more of the population live like that in cities and less in family friendly suburbia the number of children falls.
    Remarkable that so many young kids own homes in the US? ;)
    Suggests that they live in an owned family home in the traditional way but also in a way they will struggle to emulate when they are older.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Roger, would not eugenics (the 'eu' being Greek for 'good', of course, as per euthanasia [good death]) require the authorities to compel particular individuals or preferred groups to marry?

    Promoting marriage and having children is not eugenics.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    I've not researched it but off the top of my head I think renting will be a largely spurious correlation made up by the fact that those who do are in urban environments where looking after children is more time intensive leading to smaller families, relationships are shorter resulting in less family units and job mobility is much greater resulting in less extended family support. As more of the population live like that in cities and less in family friendly suburbia the number of children falls.
    It would be interesting to see the UK equivalent of such a graph.

    My anecdata would suggest that Generation Rent put off having children, as indeed the student debt hangover may also contribute shortly. The young can only support so many non-working dependants.
    I think that many or even most young women are now much more focussed on their careers in their 20s which used to be the primary child bearing age. If you think about your sector the training and establishing of a career is very time intensive and so competitive that taking a year out to have a child would be a serious gamble. By the time they are established as GP or consultant most of their most fecund years have passed and they will have smaller families as a result with fertility problems far more frequent.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    Is it the same for the UK ?
    My friend owns a house that he rents out, and rents another (In Leicester where he has a remarkably good size house for 700 a month... )
    Which side would he fall into ?
    Renter. Yes, housing is cheap in Leicester. Fox jr rents a terraced house in fashionable Clarendon Park for £700 pcm. Leicester does have the second lowest Gross Household Disposeable income though.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    JCWNBPM
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052
    edited May 2018
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    I've not researched it but off the top of my head I think renting will be a largely spurious correlation made up by the fact that those who do are in urban environments where looking after children is more time intensive leading to smaller families, relationships are shorter resulting in less family units and job mobility is much greater resulting in less extended family support. As more of the population live like that in cities and less in family friendly suburbia the number of children falls.
    It would be interesting to see the UK equivalent of such a graph.

    My anecdata would suggest that Generation Rent put off having children, as indeed the student debt hangover may also contribute shortly. The young can only support so many non-working dependants.
    I think that many or even most young women are now much more focussed on their careers in their 20s which used to be the primary child bearing age. If you think about your sector the training and establishing of a career is very time intensive and so competitive that taking a year out to have a child would be a serious gamble. By the time they are established as GP or consultant most of their most fecund years have passed and they will have smaller families as a result with fertility problems far more frequent.
    Medicine is better than most careers for fertility, in that once in a numbered training post, there is job security, generous maternity pay and ready access to part time training. Not good for filling rotas mind you!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still not sure I take polls terribly seriously given recent performances.

    Correct, but Corbyn is toxic, so this poll is likely to be correct that May is seen as "best PM".
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    After the whole saga around CD2E subsamples on here, I’m surprised that anyone taking the pollls seriously is continuing to pay serious attention to subsamples.

    +1

    Looking at sub-samples, which are not statistically robust, leads to erroneous conclusions, as in this thread header. The 2 main parties remain essentially "neck & neck" - neither really know what to do about Brexit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    I've not researched it but off the top of my head I think renting will be a largely spurious correlation made up by the fact that those who do are in urban environments where looking after children is more time intensive leading to smaller families, relationships are shorter resulting in less family units and job mobility is much greater resulting in less extended family support. As more of the population live like that in cities and less in family friendly suburbia the number of children falls.
    It would be interesting to see the UK equivalent of such a graph.

    My anecdata would suggest that Generation Rent put off having children, as indeed the student debt hangover may also contribute shortly. The young can only support so many non-working dependants.
    I think that many or even most young women are now much more focussed on their careers in their 20s which used to be the primary child bearing age. If you think about your sector the training and establishing of a career is very time intensive and so competitive that taking a year out to have a child would be a serious gamble. By the time they are established as GP or consultant most of their most fecund years have passed and they will have smaller families as a result with fertility problems far more frequent.
    Tell me about it.

    Biologically, women are supposed to have children in their early 20s, but this is usually economically impossible.

    It is much harder even in your early 30s.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2018
    OT. I found the first episode of 'A Very British Scandal' disappointing. Too camp and the on screen homosexuality was overshown. It veered towards a rather explicit 'Carry-On' and lost the politics almost completely. Nonetheless two episodes to go so it might improve and Hugh Grant's loucheness if a little too close to 'Leslie Phillips' was at least interesting.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    How do they get that past equality legislation?

    While the SNP are past masters at bribing the middle class, not even they have tried that....
    It’s based on numbers of children and previous income... / (I think you can use husband’s income as well in some circumstances)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,729
    daodao said:

    After the whole saga around CD2E subsamples on here, I’m surprised that anyone taking the pollls seriously is continuing to pay serious attention to subsamples.

    +1

    Looking at sub-samples, which are not statistically robust, leads to erroneous conclusions, as in this thread header. The 2 main parties remain essentially "neck & neck" - neither really know what to do about Brexit.
    Don't be such a spoilsport. How would the Scottish Tories have wound up Malcolm without their constant use of Scottish subsamples to justify sounding their klaxon?
    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    That's what the UK need to be considering after Brexit. Eugenics.

    Shutting the farmyard gate after the horse has bolted. Eugenics is what we needed before Brexit.
    Okaaaaayyyyy...

    Is this the moment the left officially abandoned Stalin for Hitler?
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still not sure I take polls terribly seriously given recent performances.

    Correct, but Corbyn is toxic, so this poll is likely to be correct that May is seen as "best PM".
    Corbyn has proved that he is not toxic to many voters. He espouses many causes/policies/views that are widely supported by much of the population; his campaign slogan at the last GE (for the many, not the few) still resonates. Unlike the Bliarites, he is sound on Brexit and has sensible views on foreign policy, where he would not be beholden to criminal middle-eastern regimes.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited May 2018

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    Sounds like a fairly smart investment in their future. The fall in US fertility is curious. The increasing trends towards urban living have probably not helped but I think they should be looking quite carefully at environmental factors.
    Is it the US equivalent of Generation Rent as Simon Kustenmacher seems to think. Avocado toast, not babies?

    Check out @simongerman600’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/996873185554518022?s=09
    I've not researched it but off the top of my head I think renting will be a largely spurious correlation made up by the fact that those who do are in urban environments where looking after children is more time intensive leading to smaller families, relationships are shorter resulting in less family units and job mobility is much greater resulting in less extended family support.
    It would be interesting to see the UK equivalent of such a graph.

    My anecdata would suggest that Generation Rent put off having children, as indeed the student debt hangover may also contribute shortly. The young can only support so many non-working dependants.
    I think that many or even most young women are now much more focussed on their careers in their 20s which used to be the primary child bearing age. If you think about your sector the training and establishing of a career is very time intensive and so competitive that taking a year out to have a child would be a serious gamble. By the time they are established as GP or consultant most of their most fecund years have passed and they will have smaller families as a result with fertility problems far more frequent.
    Tell me about it.

    Biologically, women are supposed to have children in their early 20s, but this is usually economically impossible.

    It is much harder even in your early 30s.
    It’s striking how this simple truth is completely absent from the official workplace dialogue about having children and how it interacts with careers.

    I suppose it goes against the spirit of the age.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    daodao said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still not sure I take polls terribly seriously given recent performances.

    Correct, but Corbyn is toxic, so this poll is likely to be correct that May is seen as "best PM".
    Corbyn has proved that he is not toxic to many voters. He espouses many causes/policies/views that are widely supported by much of the population; his campaign slogan at the last GE (for the many, not the few) still resonates. Unlike the Bliarites, he is sound on Brexit and has sensible views on foreign policy, where he would not be beholden to criminal middle-eastern regimes.
    He is toxic enough that how ever many support him, there will be more who do not(IMHO). I cannot see the electorate ever putting Corbyn in No 10
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Tell me about it.

    Biologically, women are supposed to have children in their early 20s, but this is usually economically impossible.

    It is much harder even in your early 30s.

    Surely, biologically, women are 'supposed' to have children in their teens? In ancient societies, the later it is left, the greater the chance that the woman would not live to have children; in addition, the fact many pregnancies failed, or children died young, meant it was necessary to have as many children as possible to ensure some survived.

    Fortunately modern society and medicine has changed that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited May 2018
    Well now I just don't know what to think. The public really confuse me if they have been choosing these recent moments to back May more. Buy of course who knows when it comes to polls anymore.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    ydoethur said:

    daodao said:

    After the whole saga around CD2E subsamples on here, I’m surprised that anyone taking the pollls seriously is continuing to pay serious attention to subsamples.

    +1

    Looking at sub-samples, which are not statistically robust, leads to erroneous conclusions, as in this thread header. The 2 main parties remain essentially "neck & neck" - neither really know what to do about Brexit.
    Don't be such a spoilsport. How would the Scottish Tories have wound up Malcolm without their constant use of Scottish subsamples to justify sounding their klaxon?
    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    That's what the UK need to be considering after Brexit. Eugenics.

    Shutting the farmyard gate after the horse has bolted. Eugenics is what we needed before Brexit.
    Okaaaaayyyyy...

    Is this the moment the left officially abandoned Stalin for Hitler?
    I was doodling in the sun. I sent it by mistake at the moment my coffee arrived and I was too late to delete. I'd even rehearsed two replies as you can see. It's the South of France air......
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    RoyalBlue said:

    It’s striking how this simple truth is completely absent from the official workplace dialogue about having children and how it interacts with careers.

    I suppose it goes against the spirit of the age.

    Well, fathers can always, you know, share the parenting. In fact, some man go even further and chuck in their job so their wife can work. ;)

    The more men who do this, the less the need for women who want to have a career to have kids late.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Here's something very curious:

    The Total Fertility Ratio (TFR) in the US dipped to 1.74 in 2017, which is below both the UK (1.84) and France (2.02). This is the first time the US has been behind the UK and France in since - errr - maybe never.

    What's particularly astonishing is that in France the TFR of college educated women is almost 2.0, against 1.3 in the US.

    France has some pretty serious tax and benefit incentives for college educated women to have children.
    That's what the UK need to be considering after Brexit. Eugenics.

    Shutting the farmyard gate after the horse has bolted. Eugenics is what we needed before Brexit.
    Okaaaaayyyyy...

    Is this the moment the left officially abandoned Stalin for Hitler?
    Yes, that's right. Roger is the official spokesman for the left and he has spoken.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    In this discussion: men explaining what women are "supposed" to do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Roger said:

    It looks like Remainers have lost faith and who can be surprised. Ever since the Referendum we have been hanging on by our fingertips to the faint hope that Corbyn was our saviour from this trully appalling decision.

    That light has now flickered and gone and all we're left with is an aging throwback to the 70's. A USP you wouldn't wish on a contender for the leader of Unison. Lefties might still vote for him but without enthusiasm.

    Oh it looks like he still gets plenty of enthusiasm, scarily intense enthusiasm in fact. It's a question of if he gets enough overall.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    The important question is why is UK childcare so expensive?

    I think I saw a graph suggesting we the highest childcare costs in the OECD.

    As someone upthread suggested, the young can afford to go to restaurants, they just can’t afford to have kids or live anywhere.

    It’s not very “conservative”.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Also can’t believe that there’s October election talk. I hope May is not getting excited by polls again....

    I don't think she would be after what happened last time, but my worry is her rebels - if they think the Tories are looking more comfortable they might risk a confrontation as they won't worry so much about potential outcomes
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    The important question is why is UK childcare so expensive?

    I think I saw a graph suggesting we the highest childcare costs in the OECD.

    As someone upthread suggested, the young can afford to go to restaurants, they just can’t afford to have kids or live anywhere.

    It’s not very “conservative”.

    Our son is currently in nursery for two days of the week. It is a good nursery, local and convenient, but it costs us £6k per year. That feels extortionate: and they still have trouble getting staff at the amount they pay (I have no idea what the salaries are like, but they have *lots* of staff).

    Then again, I have no idea about the economics of running such a place; all I know is that it's expensive, but he gets a great deal out of it.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    Also can’t believe that there’s October election talk. I hope May is not getting excited by polls again....

    I don't think she would be after what happened last time, but my worry is her rebels - if they think the Tories are looking more comfortable they might risk a confrontation as they won't worry so much about potential outcomes
    That’s a good point. From Newsnight last week, they were reporting Several Tory Remainers and Leavers are trying to unite together to minimise the influence of the likes of Mogg et al. I don’t know whether that’s working out or not.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited May 2018

    RoyalBlue said:

    It’s striking how this simple truth is completely absent from the official workplace dialogue about having children and how it interacts with careers.

    I suppose it goes against the spirit of the age.

    Well, fathers can always, you know, share the parenting. In fact, some man go even further and chuck in their job so their wife can work. ;)

    The more men who do this, the less the need for women who want to have a career to have kids late.
    My colleague has carried on working right through her kids as has her partner. Me and my other half will do so likewise if we have one
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Roger said:

    OT. I found the first episode of 'A Very British Scandal' disappointing. Too camp and the on screen homosexuality was overshown. It veered towards a rather explicit 'Carry-On' and lost the politics almost completely. Nonetheless two episodes to go so it might improve and Hugh Grant's loucheness if a little too close to 'Leslie Phillips' was at least interesting.

    Agree. It also didn’t make the point that, while Bessell was always regarded as a bit odd ....... an example perhaps of voting for the party, not the candidate ....... Thorpe was popular in the Party and did a great deal to pull it forward, building on Grimond’s legacy. I recall going to a Conference some years afterwards and, when the Leadership was being discussed someone got up and said, to at least some cheers “Can’t we have Jeremy back?'

    What I could not understand is why Bessell, for example, did not write to the chap who sacked Josiffe and ask for his NI card ‘for a constituent’. Furthermore, there was, IIRC a fairly simple mechanism for replacing a lost card. Apart from buying one in a pub!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Pulpstar said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    It’s striking how this simple truth is completely absent from the official workplace dialogue about having children and how it interacts with careers.

    I suppose it goes against the spirit of the age.

    Well, fathers can always, you know, share the parenting. In fact, some man go even further and chuck in their job so their wife can work. ;)

    The more men who do this, the less the need for women who want to have a career to have kids late.
    My colleague has carried on working right through her kids as has her partner. Me and my other half will do so likewise if we have one
    Good on them, if that's what they (or you) want to do. In which case, unless their is family nearby, they'll need to pay for nannies or nurseries, or split their working.

    And that might be a large factor in this: the fact many of us no longer live near a familial support structure.

    One word of warning: friends of ours were a very career-orientated couple. She wanted to continue working, but the moment she had her first child she wanted to care for it - and a fair few years later she's not gone back to work. Intentions can change when you first hold that mewling bag of puke and sh*t. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Dura_Ace said:

    In this discussion: men explaining what women are "supposed" to do.

    I think that's a bit unfair when people are merely commenting in a sense of strict biology, which as has been pointed out is not the barrier it once was.

    And I say that as a man on behalf of women everywhere. (tm Stephen Colbert)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Tell me about it.

    Biologically, women are supposed to have children in their early 20s, but this is usually economically impossible.

    It is much harder even in your early 30s.

    Surely, biologically, women are 'supposed' to have children in their teens? In ancient societies, the later it is left, the greater the chance that the woman would not live to have children; in addition, the fact many pregnancies failed, or children died young, meant it was necessary to have as many children as possible to ensure some survived.

    Fortunately modern society and medicine has changed that.
    Yes, probably.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    In this discussion: men explaining what women are "supposed" to do.

    I think that's a bit unfair when people are merely commenting in a sense of strict biology, which as has been pointed out is not the barrier it once was.

    And I say that as a man on behalf of women everywhere. (tm Stephen Colbert)
    I am referring to the personal experiences of me and my wife.

    It’s just a Corbynista sensed a chance to create a straw man so he could climb up on a high horse and grabbbed it with both hands. It’s the way the world is these days, I’m afraid.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    OT. I found the first episode of 'A Very British Scandal' disappointing. Too camp and the on screen homosexuality was overshown. It veered towards a rather explicit 'Carry-On' and lost the politics almost completely. Nonetheless two episodes to go so it might improve and Hugh Grant's loucheness if a little too close to 'Leslie Phillips' was at least interesting.

    Agree. It also didn’t make the point that, while Bessell was always regarded as a bit odd ....... an example perhaps of voting for the party, not the candidate ....... Thorpe was popular in the Party and did a great deal to pull it forward, building on Grimond’s legacy. I recall going to a Conference some years afterwards and, when the Leadership was being discussed someone got up and said, to at least some cheers “Can’t we have Jeremy back?'

    What I could not understand is why Bessell, for example, did not write to the chap who sacked Josiffe and ask for his NI card ‘for a constituent’. Furthermore, there was, IIRC a fairly simple mechanism for replacing a lost card. Apart from buying one in a pub!
    My memory is that he had a huge personal following and like a lot of Libs/Lib Dem leaders many people would have preferred him to their own party leader. I also remember him being very witty when wit in politics was in short supply.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    RoyalBlue said:

    It’s striking how this simple truth is completely absent from the official workplace dialogue about having children and how it interacts with careers.

    I suppose it goes against the spirit of the age.

    Well, fathers can always, you know, share the parenting. In fact, some man go even further and chuck in their job so their wife can work. ;)

    The more men who do this, the less the need for women who want to have a career to have kids late.
    Of course, if men and women did that in equal numbers the gender pay gap would by and large disappear.

    But, you’d then probably be having a conversation about the “career gap” between those who stayed to look after their kids, and those who didn’t and powered on.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Just on ancient practices etc: the extension of the human life-span from 30 odd to 70 plus has altered the way we view things. In Anglo-Saxon England, 12 was the age of majority. Half a millennium later, Henry IV sent his sons (individually, when 14) to put down the Welsh rebellion and run Ireland.

    Given the daft decision to make education (or training etc) compulsory until 18, it seems a little harsh to expect women to have three years of adulthood before thinking about kids.

    Of course, that can have consequences for fertility. As can high house prices. In a world where a man can earn enough by himself to buy a house, it's easier to have kids at a younger age.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Roger said:

    OT. I found the first episode of 'A Very British Scandal' disappointing. Too camp and the on screen homosexuality was overshown. It veered towards a rather explicit 'Carry-On' and lost the politics almost completely. Nonetheless two episodes to go so it might improve and Hugh Grant's loucheness if a little too close to 'Leslie Phillips' was at least interesting.

    Agree. It also didn’t make the point that, while Bessell was always regarded as a bit odd ....... an example perhaps of voting for the party, not the candidate ....... Thorpe was popular in the Party and did a great deal to pull it forward, building on Grimond’s legacy. I recall going to a Conference some years afterwards and, when the Leadership was being discussed someone got up and said, to at least some cheers “Can’t we have Jeremy back?'

    What I could not understand is why Bessell, for example, did not write to the chap who sacked Josiffe and ask for his NI card ‘for a constituent’. Furthermore, there was, IIRC a fairly simple mechanism for replacing a lost card. Apart from buying one in a pub!
    I liked Matthew Parris' conclusion.

    "I don't know how Thorpe refrained from murdering Scott. I would have done."

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    This polling detail and particularly May's new personal lead with young voters shows why it would be absurd for some Tory MPs to try and topple her given she clearly polls above her party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Just on ancient practices etc: the extension of the human life-span from 30 odd to 70 plus has altered the way we view things. In Anglo-Saxon England, 12 was the age of majority. Half a millennium later, Henry IV sent his sons (individually, when 14) to put down the Welsh rebellion and run Ireland.

    Given the daft decision to make education (or training etc) compulsory until 18, it seems a little harsh to expect women to have three years of adulthood before thinking about kids.

    Of course, that can have consequences for fertility. As can high house prices. In a world where a man can earn enough by himself to buy a house, it's easier to have kids at a younger age.

    Given the average age of first child is now 29 (and 35 for graduates) and the average age of first time buyers is 31 it is now clear that for most as well as starting their working life their 20s are a time to travel, date, and have fun before their responsibilities kick in in their 30s
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    OT. I found the first episode of 'A Very British Scandal' disappointing. Too camp and the on screen homosexuality was overshown. It veered towards a rather explicit 'Carry-On' and lost the politics almost completely. Nonetheless two episodes to go so it might improve and Hugh Grant's loucheness if a little too close to 'Leslie Phillips' was at least interesting.

    Agree. It also didn’t make the point that, while Bessell was always regarded as a bit odd ....... an example perhaps of voting for the party, not the candidate ....... Thorpe was popular in the Party and did a great deal to pull it forward, building on Grimond’s legacy. I recall going to a Conference some years afterwards and, when the Leadership was being discussed someone got up and said, to at least some cheers “Can’t we have Jeremy back?'

    What I could not understand is why Bessell, for example, did not write to the chap who sacked Josiffe and ask for his NI card ‘for a constituent’. Furthermore, there was, IIRC a fairly simple mechanism for replacing a lost card. Apart from buying one in a pub!
    I liked Matthew Parris' conclusion.

    "I don't know how Thorpe refrained from murdering Scott. I would have done."

    The book is excellent - and Scott does come across as deeply troubled.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Is there no end to the joyousness this week-end? They've just announced they wont be doing an England world cup song.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2018

    The important question is why is UK childcare so expensive?

    I think I saw a graph suggesting we the highest childcare costs in the OECD.

    As someone upthread suggested, the young can afford to go to restaurants, they just can’t afford to have kids or live anywhere.

    It’s not very “conservative”.

    The UK child per woman average of 1.8 is actually above the western average and we still have more home owners than say Germany or Switzerland even if we are lower down the home ownership table
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    Oh (dear) Jeremy Corbyn.......

    Noooooooo Jeremy Corbyn

    Repeat after me, Jeremy Corbyn is bad at day to day politics.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880



    It’s just a Corbynista sensed a chance to create a straw man so he could climb up on a high horse and grabbbed it with both hands. It’s the way the world is these days, I’m afraid.

    Impressive metaphor density.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,866
    HYUFD said:

    The important question is why is UK childcare so expensive?

    I think I saw a graph suggesting we the highest childcare costs in the OECD.

    As someone upthread suggested, the young can afford to go to restaurants, they just can’t afford to have kids or live anywhere.

    It’s not very “conservative”.

    The UK child per woman average of 1.8 is actually above the western average and we still have more home owners than say Germany or Switzerland even if we are lower down the home ownership table
    Having somewhere to live isn't the same as owning a home, though. Germany, at least, has a large stock of relatively inexpensive rental accommodation. I don't know about Switzerland.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited May 2018

    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    OT. I found the first episode of 'A Very British Scandal' disappointing. Too camp and the on screen homosexuality was overshown. It veered towards a rather explicit 'Carry-On' and lost the politics almost completely. Nonetheless two episodes to go so it might improve and Hugh Grant's loucheness if a little too close to 'Leslie Phillips' was at least interesting.

    Agree. It also didn’t make the point that, while Bessell was always regarded as a bit odd ....... an example perhaps of voting for the party, not the candidate ....... Thorpe was popular in the Party and did a great deal to pull it forward, building on Grimond’s legacy. I recall going to a Conference some years afterwards and, when the Leadership was being discussed someone got up and said, to at least some cheers “Can’t we have Jeremy back?'

    What I could not understand is why Bessell, for example, did not write to the chap who sacked Josiffe and ask for his NI card ‘for a constituent’. Furthermore, there was, IIRC a fairly simple mechanism for replacing a lost card. Apart from buying one in a pub!
    I liked Matthew Parris' conclusion.

    "I don't know how Thorpe refrained from murdering Scott. I would have done."

    The book is excellent - and Scott does come across as deeply troubled.
    If the story as told in the TV version is correct Scott was walking into police stations with explicit love letters from Thorpe sending copies to his mother his wife and his colleagues yet we were to believe that he was able to carry on as though nothing was happening
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    HYUFD said:

    The important question is why is UK childcare so expensive?

    I think I saw a graph suggesting we the highest childcare costs in the OECD.

    As someone upthread suggested, the young can afford to go to restaurants, they just can’t afford to have kids or live anywhere.

    It’s not very “conservative”.

    The UK child per woman average of 1.8 is actually above the western average and we still have more home owners than say Germany or Switzerland even if we are lower down the home ownership table
    In Germany people rent.
    When I lived there I rented from a couple who rented a much nicer flat from someone else.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,955

    Oh (dear) Jeremy Corbyn.......

    Noooooooo Jeremy Corbyn

    Repeat after me, Jeremy Corbyn is bad at day to day politics.
    Depends on whether that day is in 1977.....
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Interesting: https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/21/support-for-brexit-falls-sharply-in-northern-ireland

    It seems there’s quite a gulf between support for Unionism and hard Brexit.

    If only we’d listened to Mr Gladstone.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited May 2018
    Mr HYUFD,

    "it is now clear that for most as well as starting their working life their 20s are a time to travel, date, and have fun before their responsibilities kick in in their 30s."

    I think you're reflecting the difference between what is now called the 'Metropolitan elite' and normal people. Normal people don't finish their 'A' levels and fret about where to go for their 'gap year'. What do you live on while you're gallivanting around the world?

    I assumed they only appeared in middleclass sit-coms set in the South. They may be spreading slowly, I suppose, but they've not really reached the NW of England yet.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    RoyalBlue said:

    Interesting: https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/may/21/support-for-brexit-falls-sharply-in-northern-ireland

    It seems there’s quite a gulf between support for Unionism and hard Brexit.

    If only we’d listened to Mr Gladstone.

    Goes to show why May is making such an effort to avoid a hard border in Ireland, even if it effectively means staying in the Customs Union in all but name
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    The important question is why is UK childcare so expensive?

    I think I saw a graph suggesting we the highest childcare costs in the OECD.

    As someone upthread suggested, the young can afford to go to restaurants, they just can’t afford to have kids or live anywhere.

    It’s not very “conservative”.

    The UK child per woman average of 1.8 is actually above the western average and we still have more home owners than say Germany or Switzerland even if we are lower down the home ownership table
    Having somewhere to live isn't the same as owning a home, though. Germany, at least, has a large stock of relatively inexpensive rental accommodation. I don't know about Switzerland.
    We could certainly do with the more secure tenancies Germany does have for renters though given Germany lacks a global city on the scale of London we are unlikely to match its lower rents
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    HYUFD said:

    The important question is why is UK childcare so expensive?

    I think I saw a graph suggesting we the highest childcare costs in the OECD.

    As someone upthread suggested, the young can afford to go to restaurants, they just can’t afford to have kids or live anywhere.

    It’s not very “conservative”.

    The UK child per woman average of 1.8 is actually above the western average and we still have more home owners than say Germany or Switzerland even if we are lower down the home ownership table
    In Germany people rent.
    When I lived there I rented from a couple who rented a much nicer flat from someone else.
    I wonder if that is one reason for Germany's better industrial performance than ours -- that renting means a more mobile workforce.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Dura_Ace said:



    It’s just a Corbynista sensed a chance to create a straw man so he could climb up on a high horse and grabbbed it with both hands. It’s the way the world is these days, I’m afraid.

    Impressive metaphor density.
    Apart from wondering why the straw man was required to climb the high horse it works quite well
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    CD13 said:

    Mr HYUFD,

    "it is now clear that for most as well as starting their working life their 20s are a time to travel, date, and have fun before their responsibilities kick in in their 30s."

    I think you're reflecting the difference between what is now called the 'Metropolitan elite' and normal people. Normal people don't finish their 'A' levels and fret about where to go for their 'gap year'. What do you live on while you're gallivanting around the world?

    I assumed they only appeared in middleclass sit-coms set in the South. They may be spreading slowly, I suppose, but they've not really reached the NW of England yet.

    The (few) NW youth that I know are not ‘gap-year takers”. Getting on with careers seems important.
This discussion has been closed.