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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst y

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    King Cole, mildly surprised, as the US/West split over the Iran deal would make this an excellent time for Iran to show how reasonable it can be.

    I do sympathise greatly with the lady and her family, though it remains puzzling she thought returning to Iran would be a good idea.

    Agreed. But given the PR advantages to Iran of a release I do wonder if there is something we haven’t been told.

    A few months back the rumours were of an imminent release and, purely coincidentally, of payment of some monies owed to Iran. So are they holding out for more? Or has something else been happening?
    Or, the simplest explanation, she is guilty of whatever crimes that Iran have accused her of and their are applying the law just as we would if an Iranian visitor committed a crime in the UK.
    More likely that Iran is playing silly buggers in the hope we will ask the Americans to ease off a bit. We can see this new development immediately follows Trump ripping up the nuclear deal last week.
    I would be very surprised if the Iranians were daft enough to believe we had that kind of pull. I tend to Max's view that this woman seems to have done something that particularly pisses them off. One begins to wonder if Boris misspoke after all.
    Leaving Boris to one side, the timing points to this being a reaction to Trump last week. She's been in captivity for two years now so it is unlikely the Iranian Inspector Morse has turned up a new lead. Perhaps it is indirect sabre-rattling aimed at the US government without the associated risks of arresting an American tourist.

    Returning to Boris, we might remember that William Hague made some spectacularly wrong announcements over Libya so if we assume there was no ulterior motive, perhaps there is something wrong with our Middle East intelligence.
    I don't remember Hague having spectacularly wrong announcements on libya. There was a mission that went awry that he took responsibility for but in my view he did a good job there. His pronouncements and judgment on the opposition to Assad in Syria, however, wandered from the optimistic to the plain dishonest and back again so you might be right about the quality of some of our intelligence.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    King Cole, mildly surprised, as the US/West split over the Iran deal would make this an excellent time for Iran to show how reasonable it can be.

    I do sympathise greatly with the lady and her family, though it remains puzzling she thought returning to Iran would be a good idea.

    Agreed. But given the PR advantages to Iran of a release I do wonder if there is something we haven’t been told.

    A few months back the rumours were of an imminent release and, purely coincidentally, of payment of some monies owed to Iran. So are they holding out for more? Or has something else been happening?
    Or, the simplest explanation, she is guilty of whatever crimes that Iran have accused her of and their are applying the law just as we would if an Iranian visitor committed a crime in the UK.
    More likely that Iran is playing silly buggers in the hope we will ask the Americans to ease off a bit. We can see this new development immediately follows Trump ripping up the nuclear deal last week.
    I don't think anyone in Iran is stupid enough to think that Trump would go back into the deal he loathes because it might help free one non-US citizen.
    Would anyone in Iran think it might concentrate minds in the State Department, after Trump has moved onto his next twitter storm?
    If they do then they are stupid beyond belief. She's not even American, they literally won't give a flying fuck.
  • "If Esther McVey is your big hope ,you need help.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-43784071"

    Better than "hang the witch?"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    O/T we struggle to manage more than about 12k enforced deportations a year from the UK. The proposed new Italian government is committed to a "priority" of 500k deportations. I really struggle to see how this would be possible with even the pretense of due process.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Scott_P said:
    So the detail is here: https://www.qub.ac.uk/sites/brexitni/BrexitandtheBorder/Report/Filetoupload,820734,en.pdf

    The yes/no Brexit question comes right at the end of the survey, which seems a bit suspect, because it allows the people writing the survey to push their option with the lead-in questions, à-la-yes-minister.

    Even if they weren't trying to fix the result there's pretty much no way you can think about the logistics and practicalities of the whole thing without getting biased against it. Presumably an actual re-referendum wouldn't have the lead-in questions, although hopefully they'd get a little bit more attention than the original one.
    While I’m loath to criticise the academics I thought the write up a bit biased “as many as 20% of Catholics wouldn’t wear CCTV on the border” (I paraphrase) - not 80% would....<</p>
    The poll shows there's not a huge amount of difference in the attitudes of Catholics and Protestants to Brexit border controls with 60% supporting peaceful protests against both north-south and east-west controls.
  • DavidL said:

    O/T we struggle to manage more than about 12k enforced deportations a year from the UK. The proposed new Italian government is committed to a "priority" of 500k deportations. I really struggle to see how this would be possible with even the pretense of due process.

    Deals done, including cash, with places like Libya, I suppose. Every time that I go to Italy - North, South and Rome - all I hear about from Italians is about the migrants.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    Other things being equal, I think Labour would do better with a different leader with less baggage.

    But I think strategically Corbyn has made some wise decisions
    (ambiguity on Brexit for now, bold domestic policy offering etc.) - and the danger is that a new leader might unwind some of that.
    McDonnell might be a better bet. He terrifies the life out of me but he has all the positives you say (blurred on Brexit, radical domestic policies etc) with a bit more nous when it comes to things like how Labour is perceived in terms of anti-semitism etc. Scary though.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    King Cole, mildly surprised, as the US/West split over the Iran deal would make this an excellent time for Iran to show how reasonable it can be.

    I do sympathise greatly with the lady and her family, though it remains puzzling she thought returning to Iran would be a good idea.

    Agreed. But given the PR advantages to Iran of a release I do wonder if there is something we haven’t been told.

    A few months back the rumours were of an imminent release and, purely coincidentally, of payment of some monies owed to Iran. So are they holding out for more? Or has something else been happening?
    Or, the simplest explanation, she is guilty of whatever crimes that Iran have accused her of and their are applying the law just as we would if an Iranian visitor committed a crime in the UK.
    More likely that Iran is playing silly buggers in the hope we will ask the Americans to ease off a bit. We can see this new development immediately follows Trump ripping up the nuclear deal last week.
    This could actually be a rare case where somebody cares what Britain's position is in its own right.

    America says the deal is off, the EU says the deal is still on, America says they'll sanction companies that trade with Iran, France says let's get the EU to compensate them...

    Britain is right in the middle, and the UK still does non-trivial international banking etc.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited May 2018

    "If Esther McVey is your big hope ,you need help.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-43784071

    "

    Better than "hang the witch?"

    No ,but do you agree on the rape clause , was an opportunity for victims ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    DavidL said:

    O/T we struggle to manage more than about 12k enforced deportations a year from the UK. The proposed new Italian government is committed to a "priority" of 500k deportations. I really struggle to see how this would be possible with even the pretense of due process.

    Not every country takes our strict yet woolly approach to the rules.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T we struggle to manage more than about 12k enforced deportations a year from the UK. The proposed new Italian government is committed to a "priority" of 500k deportations. I really struggle to see how this would be possible with even the pretense of due process.

    Not every country takes our strict yet woolly approach to the rules.
    Terrible rules enforced to the letter of the law.
  • Yorkcity said:

    "If Esther McVey is your big hope ,you need help.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-43784071

    "

    Better than "hang the witch?"
    No ,but do you agree on that the tape clause , was an opportunity for victims ?

    Errr, no. However, here is the problem. If you have an exemption on the third child for rape and there are no checks, then it will be exploited. You might not like that being said and I don't like saying it but that is what would happen. I assume what you suggest is that everyone be believed without any checks and just be given handouts? If not, what would be your solution?

    One of the biggest problems our welfare system has is that it can be gamed with very profitable outcomes if you know how to do it correctly. The reason why Esther McVey is suggested this is not because she is a heartless Tory witch but because she knows that.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    I think that point 1 is wrongly put. Labour are not doing "pretty well" in the polls. Rather as a party they are doing less badly than Jeremy Corbyn is in terms of personal head-to-head PM ratings with the less than charismatic Theresa May.

    Labour are behind in every opinion poll that has come out in the previous month, a deficit of 4% or 5% is becoming commonplace, and the trend is backwards. The London local election polling which overstated the actual Labour lead also demolished the argument that the polls must be overstating the Conservative lead simply because they did so in June 2017. When we are 8 years into a series of Conservative governments which are still delivering extreme austerity and stagnant (at best) living standards, that is a pretty lousy performance.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Totally O/t, but has anyone had trouble with the new train timetables?
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Cabinet,

    "McDonnell might be a better bet."

    Exactly. I've always believed that Jezza would be dangerous if he had brains. Compared to Jezza, McDonnell is a political genius, and thus truly dangerous.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    I think that point 1 is wrongly put. Labour are not doing "pretty well" in the polls. Rather as a party they are doing less badly than Jeremy Corbyn is in terms of personal head-to-head PM ratings with the less than charismatic Theresa May.

    Labour are behind in every opinion poll that has come out in the previous month, a deficit of 4% or 5% is becoming commonplace, and the trend is backwards. The London local election polling which overstated the actual Labour lead also demolished the argument that the polls must be overstating the Conservative lead simply because they did so in June 2017. When we are 8 years into a series of Conservative governments which are still delivering extreme austerity and stagnant (at best) living standards, that is a pretty lousy performance.
    Agree; given the utter shambles that is May’s ‘government’ the Opposition parties ought to be streets ahead.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    rkrkrk said:

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    Other things being equal, I think Labour would do better with a different leader with less baggage.

    But I think strategically Corbyn has made some wise decisions
    (ambiguity on Brexit for now, bold domestic policy offering etc.) - and the danger is that a new leader might unwind some of that.
    McDonnell might be a better bet. He terrifies the life out of me but he has all the positives you say (blurred on Brexit, radical domestic policies etc) with a bit more nous when it comes to things like how Labour is perceived in terms of anti-semitism etc. Scary though.
    I think where McDonnell would struggle is that he is seen as a "politician" mainly for the reasons you mention. Jez, at least in the view of his supporters, is seen as a the leader of a mass movement rather than a politician. McDonnell would lose more of Jez's supporters than he would gain elsewhere IMO.

    Labour have got themselves into a real pickle, much of the party's support comes from the cult of personality wrt to Jez, but he is seen as completely unsuitable for the role of PM by the majority of the nation. With FPTP there is still a chance that he can make it into number 10 with 40-43% of the vote and a poor showing by the Tories, however it's not as big a chance as Jezlamists like to think.

    I don't see who in the nation McDonnell could attract that Jez doesn't already have and how he would hold on to gains made in leafier suburbs.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited May 2018
    CD13 said:

    Mr Cabinet,

    "McDonnell might be a better bet."

    Exactly. I've always believed that Jezza would be dangerous if he had brains. Compared to Jezza, McDonnell is a political genius, and thus truly dangerous.

    I'm not sure why Mackie D gets this rep for being some sort of leftwing Peter Mandelson. What has he actually done to deserve this praise? I prefer Corbyn of the two (but support the leadership of neither).
  • Anazina said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Cabinet,

    "McDonnell might be a better bet."

    Exactly. I've always believed that Jezza would be dangerous if he had brains. Compared to Jezza, McDonnell is a political genius, and thus truly dangerous.

    I'm not sure why Mackie D gets this rep for being some sort of leftwing Peter Mandelson. What has he actually done to deserve this praise? I prefer Corbyn of the two (but support the leadership of neither).
    He is not that repellent :)
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    TGOHF said:
    Throwing in losing the NHS and paying 50 euro to see a GP, 70 euro per night in hospital and 100 euro to go to A&E for anyone earning more than 15k euro a year as happens south of the border and you might seee less support again. What happens as well to the £9bn UK subsidy to NI.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    I think that point 1 is wrongly put. Labour are not doing "pretty well" in the polls. Rather as a party they are doing less badly than Jeremy Corbyn is in terms of personal head-to-head PM ratings with the less than charismatic Theresa May.

    Labour are behind in every opinion poll that has come out in the previous month, a deficit of 4% or 5% is becoming commonplace, and the trend is backwards. The London local election polling which overstated the actual Labour lead also demolished the argument that the polls must be overstating the Conservative lead simply because they did so in June 2017. When we are 8 years into a series of Conservative governments which are still delivering extreme austerity and stagnant (at best) living standards, that is a pretty lousy performance.
    Agree; given the utter shambles that is May’s ‘government’ the Opposition parties ought to be streets ahead.
    The economy is going well at the moment though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,040
    Peak Corbyn?

    "Momentum would have shown they could bulldoze their way through a selection process to select a Momentum candidate in a CLP where they had no genuinely active base. They would have proved they were invincible. In fact, they have proved the exact opposite.

    All the money they spent, phone calls they made, frontbench endorsements they secured, door-to-door canvassing and celebrity visits from Owen Jones translated into just 135 votes out of a potential 1,600. The most important lesson to take from this is that there is no substitute for active CLP organisation against Momentum. It not only renders them beatable, but comprehensively beatable."

    https://labourlist.org/2018/05/matt-pound-how-janet-daby-won-the-lewisham-east-selection-race/
  • MaxPB said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    Other things being equal, I think Labour would do better with a different leader with less baggage.

    But I think strategically Corbyn has made some wise decisions
    (ambiguity on Brexit for now, bold domestic policy offering etc.) - and the danger is that a new leader might unwind some of that.
    McDonnell might be a better bet. He terrifies the life out of me but he has all the positives you say (blurred on Brexit, radical domestic policies etc) with a bit more nous when it comes to things like how Labour is perceived in terms of anti-semitism etc. Scary though.
    I think where McDonnell would struggle is that he is seen as a "politician" mainly for the reasons you mention. Jez, at least in the view of his supporters, is seen as a the leader of a mass movement rather than a politician. McDonnell would lose more of Jez's supporters than he would gain elsewhere IMO.

    Labour have got themselves into a real pickle, much of the party's support comes from the cult of personality wrt to Jez, but he is seen as completely unsuitable for the role of PM by the majority of the nation. With FPTP there is still a chance that he can make it into number 10 with 40-43% of the vote and a poor showing by the Tories, however it's not as big a chance as Jezlamists like to think.

    I don't see who in the nation McDonnell could attract that Jez doesn't already have and how he would hold on to gains made in leafier suburbs.
    Agreed on most of that but I think he would do better, ironically enough, in some of the old Labour seats the Tories managed to take. I remember meeting him, he is actually very personable and likes a good laugh, and he is punchy when he delivers his policies whereas Jez comes across as some fairly clueless intellectual. Plus I think there is a fair section of the country that wants a bit of authoritarianism to get things done, and McD is certainly the candidate for that...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The important question is why is UK childcare so expensive?

    I think I saw a graph suggesting we the highest childcare costs in the OECD.

    As someone upthread suggested, the young can afford to go to restaurants, they just can’t afford to have kids or live anywhere.

    It’s not very “conservative”.

    Our son is currently in nursery for two days of the week. It is a good nursery, local and convenient, but it costs us £6k per year. That feels extortionate: and they still have trouble getting staff at the amount they pay (I have no idea what the salaries are like, but they have *lots* of staff).

    Then again, I have no idea about the economics of running such a place; all I know is that it's expensive, but he gets a great deal out of it.
    You may remember the outrage when the stories suggested changing the permitted ratio from 3 to 4 (Iirc) kids per teacher
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Amazina,

    "I'm not sure why Mackie D gets this rep for being some sort of leftwing Peter Mandelson."

    I did say compared to 'ol bonehead' himself, but he can evade questions better. I'm not sure Peter M is all that great - he goes into the Keir Starmer, Kenneth Baker, oiliness category for me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited May 2018
    Miss Anazina, reason why McDonnell is seen as far left:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lCcFjRhiaw

    Edited extra bit: apologies, I misread your post and thought it questioned his far leftiness.

    Still worth remembering what a daft sod he is, though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Pulpstar said:

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    Oppositions aside from the Tories 97 to 05 tend to do pretty well in polls as 'not the gov't
    Swingback as choice looms generally
    It depends how he is replaced and how Momentum react
    The swing that Hague got from 97 to 01 would very likely be enough to see Corbyn into the office of PM.

    No opposition has been as close to the governing party in terms of UNS required at the next GE as Corbyn has for decades.
    Only if both the LDs and SNP backed Corbyn on confidence and supply and even Hague only managed that tiny swing in 2001 by winning back a few 1997 Labour voters to the Tories so Corbyn would still have to win over some 2017 Tory voters
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Pulpstar said:

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    I think that point 1 is wrongly put. Labour are not doing "pretty well" in the polls. Rather as a party they are doing less badly than Jeremy Corbyn is in terms of personal head-to-head PM ratings with the less than charismatic Theresa May.

    Labour are behind in every opinion poll that has come out in the previous month, a deficit of 4% or 5% is becoming commonplace, and the trend is backwards. The London local election polling which overstated the actual Labour lead also demolished the argument that the polls must be overstating the Conservative lead simply because they did so in June 2017. When we are 8 years into a series of Conservative governments which are still delivering extreme austerity and stagnant (at best) living standards, that is a pretty lousy performance.
    Agree; given the utter shambles that is May’s ‘government’ the Opposition parties ought to be streets ahead.
    The economy is going well at the moment though.
    Sort of! Walked though the small tourist area which is Old Leigh (on Sea) yesterday and was surprised by the number of ‘we’re hiring’ notices.

    Od fourse all the waiting staff we came across seemed local compared with a couple of years ago.......
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Miss Anazina, reason why McDonnell is seen as far left

    I think the question is why he's seen as having Mandelsonian nous?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited May 2018

    Miss Anazina, reason why McDonnell is seen as far left:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lCcFjRhiaw

    It was his rep for competence and strategy that I was challenging, not that he is consider leftwing!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2018
    Nigelb said:

    Sanders' Presidential prospects looking in trouble:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/bernie-sanders-democrats-2018-599331

    'Nina Turner' - great name, but apparently not someone to have running your organisation...

    I doubt it, Sanders already has a head state on the rest of the field with the 2016 organisation and supporter base he built up even if it has sagged a little.

    None of the rest of the Democratic field is anywhere near Hillary's fundraising and endorsements and organisation building at this stage and even 2 years ago Sanders ran her close from nowhere
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    Mr Dancer,

    Miss Amazina?

    Never mind, consider her promotion to maleness as a compliment.


    Ms Cyclefree can be super-male if she wants to be.

    PS I don't know where the smiley face emoji lives.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Is Owen Jones becoming the new Eddie Izzard....

    He is neither as bright nor appealing - which is quite an achievement.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Yep, misread it, amended my post but a little too late.

    Mr. Felix, you're saying that Owen Jones is the Jar Jar Binks of socialism?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Totally O/t, but has anyone had trouble with the new train timetables?

    Firefox is quicker and more reliable than Chrome or IE :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    brendan16 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Throwing in losing the NHS and paying 50 euro to see a GP, 70 euro per night in hospital and 100 euro to go to A&E for anyone earning more than 15k euro a year as happens south of the border and you might seee less support again. What happens as well to the £9bn UK subsidy to NI.

    Yup - we met some Irish folk on a cruise a few years back and health insurance was all they talked about - perhaps they should poll the Republic :)
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    CD13 said:

    Mr Dancer,

    Miss Amazina?

    Never mind, consider her promotion to maleness as a compliment.


    Ms Cyclefree can be super-male if she wants to be.

    PS I don't know where the smiley face emoji lives.


    I have never stated whether I am male or female!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Miss Anazina, reason why McDonnell is seen as far left

    I think the question is why he's seen as having Mandelsonian nous?
    Indeed so.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Yep, misread it, amended my post but a little too late.

    Mr. Felix, you're saying that Owen Jones is the Jar Jar Binks of socialism?

    He is an embarrassment to my people.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Anazina said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Dancer,

    Miss Amazina?

    Never mind, consider her promotion to maleness as a compliment.


    Ms Cyclefree can be super-male if she wants to be.

    PS I don't know where the smiley face emoji lives.


    I have never stated whether I am male or female!
    How very modern and on trend!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    Oppositions aside from the Tories 97 to 05 tend to do pretty well in polls as 'not the gov't
    Swingback as choice looms generally
    It depends how he is replaced and how Momentum react
    Labour did awfully in opposition from Jeremy Corbyn's election of leader right up to the 2017 general election campaign. Jeremy Corbyn's personal ratings have subsided back towards previous levels but Labour's polling has not. Something interesting is happening.
    Just as in London, isa it likely Labour is being overstated in the polls?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    Other things being equal, I think Labour would do better with a different leader with less baggage.

    But I think strategically Corbyn has made some wise decisions
    (ambiguity on Brexit for now, bold domestic policy offering etc.) - and the danger is that a new leader might unwind some of that.
    McDonnell might be a better bet. He terrifies the life out of me but he has all the positives you say (blurred on Brexit, radical domestic policies etc) with a bit more nous when it comes to things like how Labour is perceived in terms of anti-semitism etc. Scary though.
    McDonnell has just as much if not more baggage imo, and seems to lack Corbyn's patience/civility.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Anazina said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Dancer,

    Miss Amazina?

    Never mind, consider her promotion to maleness as a compliment.


    Ms Cyclefree can be super-male if she wants to be.

    PS I don't know where the smiley face emoji lives.


    I have never stated whether I am male or female!
    Or indeed an alien?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    My spidey sense is that the Tories have retained their GE surge in places like Stoke whilst the froth has come off of Labour in their more middle class gains giving back Battersea, Canterbury, Leamington and places like that.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Dancer,

    Miss Amazina?

    Never mind, consider her promotion to maleness as a compliment.


    Ms Cyclefree can be super-male if she wants to be.

    PS I don't know where the smiley face emoji lives.


    I have never stated whether I am male or female!
    Or indeed an alien?
    Indeed. Or animal, vegetable or mineral.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    True the British national anthem is dire.
    How about the sixth verse of the National anthem as the England national anthem - which goes

    Lord grant that Marshal Wade
    May by thy mighty aid
    Victory bring.
    May he sedition hush,
    And like a torrent rush,
    Rebellious Scots to crush.
    God save the King!
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,429

    Totally O/t, but has anyone had trouble with the new train timetables?

    My train this morning (8.00am from St Albans) was on time. There had been an earlier cancellation so it was busier than usual.

    The main difference is the ultimate destination had changed from Sevenoaks to Rainham Kent.

    There will be an improved service from London Bridge tonight.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Two questions from this:

    1) Why are Labour doing pretty well in the polls at a time when the general public collectively think Jeremy Corbyn is so underwhelming?

    And following on from that:

    2) Would Labour do appreciably better with a different leader or are their perceived virtues drawn from elsewhere?

    Other things being equal, I think Labour would do better with a different leader with less baggage.

    But I think strategically Corbyn has made some wise decisions
    (ambiguity on Brexit for now, bold domestic policy offering etc.) - and the danger is that a new leader might unwind some of that.
    McDonnell might be a better bet. He terrifies the life out of me but he has all the positives you say (blurred on Brexit, radical domestic policies etc) with a bit more nous when it comes to things like how Labour is perceived in terms of anti-semitism etc. Scary though.
    McDonnell has just as much if not more baggage imo, and seems to lack Corbyn's patience/civility.
    Yup, the way Corbyn manages to carry the leftiness (apart from running on a fairly unprogressive manifesto that throws money at middle-class pensioners and doesn't assign anything to reverse benefit cuts) is by having that calm, reasonable manner. McDonnell is also a capable media performer, but he doesn't have quite the same talent.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Pulpstar said:

    My spidey sense is that the Tories have retained their GE surge in places like Stoke whilst the froth has come off of Labour in their more middle class gains giving back Battersea, Canterbury, Leamington and places like that.

    That lines up with what I think is happening as well. I think the middle classes are facing up to what a Corbyn government means for them and that Corbyn has completely refused debate on staying in the single market meaning his Brexit would look basically the same as whatever the Tories have planned.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited May 2018
    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Peak Corbyn?

    "Momentum would have shown they could bulldoze their way through a selection process to select a Momentum candidate in a CLP where they had no genuinely active base. They would have proved they were invincible. In fact, they have proved the exact opposite.

    All the money they spent, phone calls they made, frontbench endorsements they secured, door-to-door canvassing and celebrity visits from Owen Jones translated into just 135 votes out of a potential 1,600. The most important lesson to take from this is that there is no substitute for active CLP organisation against Momentum. It not only renders them beatable, but comprehensively beatable."

    https://labourlist.org/2018/05/matt-pound-how-janet-daby-won-the-lewisham-east-selection-race/

    Both this and the Owen Jones earlier piece seem unnecessarily confrontational to me. Thankfully both seem to think the candidate is excellent.

    Certainly Labour need to move away from the idea that former spads/relatives of MPs can get parachuted in and I'm glad that didn't happen on this occasion.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    The The: "Heartland".
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    rkrkrk said:

    Peak Corbyn?

    "Momentum would have shown they could bulldoze their way through a selection process to select a Momentum candidate in a CLP where they had no genuinely active base. They would have proved they were invincible. In fact, they have proved the exact opposite.

    All the money they spent, phone calls they made, frontbench endorsements they secured, door-to-door canvassing and celebrity visits from Owen Jones translated into just 135 votes out of a potential 1,600. The most important lesson to take from this is that there is no substitute for active CLP organisation against Momentum. It not only renders them beatable, but comprehensively beatable."

    https://labourlist.org/2018/05/matt-pound-how-janet-daby-won-the-lewisham-east-selection-race/

    Both this and the Owen Jones earlier piece seem unnecessarily confrontational to me. Thankfully both seem to think the candidate is excellent.

    Certainly Labour need to move away from the idea that former spads/relatives of MPs can get parachuted in and I'm glad that didn't happen on this occasion.
    Instead of SPADs, things have now moved on so that the best people to sit in parliament are those who have spent the last decade dealing with dog mess and potholes. I'd rather have a bunch of PPEers running the show.

    What I'd really like is a set of MPs from a diverse range of backgrounds - personal and professional. Fat chance of that though.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    MaxPB said:

    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
    Any song with 'thee' in the title sounds more suitable to be the national anthem of Yorkshire.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My spidey sense is that the Tories have retained their GE surge in places like Stoke whilst the froth has come off of Labour in their more middle class gains giving back Battersea, Canterbury, Leamington and places like that.

    That lines up with what I think is happening as well. I think the middle classes are facing up to what a Corbyn government means for them and that Corbyn has completely refused debate on staying in the single market meaning his Brexit would look basically the same as whatever the Tories have planned.
    I agree.

    Some ex-Tory Remainers are shifting back from Labour to Tory as they increasingly see no difference between them on Brexit.

    Some ex-UKIP Tories are gritting their teeth and sticking with the Tories as they have nowhere else to go.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My spidey sense is that the Tories have retained their GE surge in places like Stoke whilst the froth has come off of Labour in their more middle class gains giving back Battersea, Canterbury, Leamington and places like that.

    That lines up with what I think is happening as well. I think the middle classes are facing up to what a Corbyn government means for them and that Corbyn has completely refused debate on staying in the single market meaning his Brexit would look basically the same as whatever the Tories have planned.
    I think it's more that the last few months have been entirely defensive territory for Corbyn - no we're not anti-semitic, no we're not collaborating on Brexit, etc. Meanwhile May is seen as getting on with Brexit, however shambolically.

    Both parts subject to change...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    MaxPB said:

    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
    Any song with 'thee' in the title sounds more suitable to be the national anthem of Yorkshire.
    "Panic" by The Smiths would give a shout out to various bits of Britain that are unlikely to ever feature in the lyrics of any other anthem. Humberside, anyone?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2018

    rkrkrk said:

    Peak Corbyn?

    "Momentum would have shown they could bulldoze their way through a selection process to select a Momentum candidate in a CLP where they had no genuinely active base. They would have proved they were invincible. In fact, they have proved the exact opposite.

    All the money they spent, phone calls they made, frontbench endorsements they secured, door-to-door canvassing and celebrity visits from Owen Jones translated into just 135 votes out of a potential 1,600. The most important lesson to take from this is that there is no substitute for active CLP organisation against Momentum. It not only renders them beatable, but comprehensively beatable."

    https://labourlist.org/2018/05/matt-pound-how-janet-daby-won-the-lewisham-east-selection-race/

    Both this and the Owen Jones earlier piece seem unnecessarily confrontational to me. Thankfully both seem to think the candidate is excellent.

    Certainly Labour need to move away from the idea that former spads/relatives of MPs can get parachuted in and I'm glad that didn't happen on this occasion.
    Instead of SPADs, things have now moved on so that the best people to sit in parliament are those who have spent the last decade dealing with dog mess and potholes. I'd rather have a bunch of PPEers running the show.

    What I'd really like is a set of MPs from a diverse range of backgrounds - personal and professional. Fat chance of that though.
    Add overgrown hedges and broken lampposts too which believe it or not were some of the issues in my council campaign!

    Though at least winning a council seat shows you can run a campaign which might be more useful in a marginal seat than an ex PPE SPAD
  • MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My spidey sense is that the Tories have retained their GE surge in places like Stoke whilst the froth has come off of Labour in their more middle class gains giving back Battersea, Canterbury, Leamington and places like that.

    That lines up with what I think is happening as well. I think the middle classes are facing up to what a Corbyn government means for them and that Corbyn has completely refused debate on staying in the single market meaning his Brexit would look basically the same as whatever the Tories have planned.
    I think it's more that the last few months have been entirely defensive territory for Corbyn - no we're not anti-semitic, no we're not collaborating on Brexit, etc. Meanwhile May is seen as getting on with Brexit, however shambolically.

    Both parts subject to change...
    I think that is fair, Nick. I do think though the anti-semitism row has taken the shine off Labour for a fair few people. And I do not think it gets reversed.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:

    Peak Corbyn?

    "Momentum would have shown they could bulldoze their way through a selection process to select a Momentum candidate in a CLP where they had no genuinely active base. They would have proved they were invincible. In fact, they have proved the exact opposite.

    All the money they spent, phone calls they made, frontbench endorsements they secured, door-to-door canvassing and celebrity visits from Owen Jones translated into just 135 votes out of a potential 1,600. The most important lesson to take from this is that there is no substitute for active CLP organisation against Momentum. It not only renders them beatable, but comprehensively beatable."

    https://labourlist.org/2018/05/matt-pound-how-janet-daby-won-the-lewisham-east-selection-race/

    Both this and the Owen Jones earlier piece seem unnecessarily confrontational to me. Thankfully both seem to think the candidate is excellent.

    Certainly Labour need to move away from the idea that former spads/relatives of MPs can get parachuted in and I'm glad that didn't happen on this occasion.
    Instead of SPADs, things have now moved on so that the best people to sit in parliament are those who have spent the last decade dealing with dog mess and potholes. I'd rather have a bunch of PPEers running the show.

    What I'd really like is a set of MPs from a diverse range of backgrounds - personal and professional. Fat chance of that though.
    I think it's good to have people connected with the local area (albeit not exclusively I would say). I think she is a former social worker which I suspect is a very underrepresented profession in parliament.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Peak Corbyn?

    "Momentum would have shown they could bulldoze their way through a selection process to select a Momentum candidate in a CLP where they had no genuinely active base. They would have proved they were invincible. In fact, they have proved the exact opposite.

    All the money they spent, phone calls they made, frontbench endorsements they secured, door-to-door canvassing and celebrity visits from Owen Jones translated into just 135 votes out of a potential 1,600. The most important lesson to take from this is that there is no substitute for active CLP organisation against Momentum. It not only renders them beatable, but comprehensively beatable."

    https://labourlist.org/2018/05/matt-pound-how-janet-daby-won-the-lewisham-east-selection-race/

    Both this and the Owen Jones earlier piece seem unnecessarily confrontational to me. Thankfully both seem to think the candidate is excellent.

    Certainly Labour need to move away from the idea that former spads/relatives of MPs can get parachuted in and I'm glad that didn't happen on this occasion.
    Instead of SPADs, things have now moved on so that the best people to sit in parliament are those who have spent the last decade dealing with dog mess and potholes. I'd rather have a bunch of PPEers running the show.

    What I'd really like is a set of MPs from a diverse range of backgrounds - personal and professional. Fat chance of that though.
    Add overgrown hedges and broken lampposts too which believe it or not were some of the issues in my council campaign!

    Though at least winning a council seat shows you can run a campaign which might be more useful in a marginal seat than an ex PPE SPAD
    Being a PPE wonk certainly failed to impress the voters in my ward!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    MaxPB said:

    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
    Any song with 'thee' in the title sounds more suitable to be the national anthem of Yorkshire.
    "Panic" by The Smiths would give a shout out to various bits of Britain that are unlikely to ever feature in the lyrics of any other anthem. Humberside, anyone?
    I would go for "The Bold Fusilier", if only to piss off our Antipodean cousins:

    https://youtu.be/FOVQWjW-R64
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My spidey sense is that the Tories have retained their GE surge in places like Stoke whilst the froth has come off of Labour in their more middle class gains giving back Battersea, Canterbury, Leamington and places like that.

    That lines up with what I think is happening as well. I think the middle classes are facing up to what a Corbyn government means for them and that Corbyn has completely refused debate on staying in the single market meaning his Brexit would look basically the same as whatever the Tories have planned.
    I think it's more that the last few months have been entirely defensive territory for Corbyn - no we're not anti-semitic, no we're not collaborating on Brexit, etc. Meanwhile May is seen as getting on with Brexit, however shambolically.

    Both parts subject to change...
    The problem is that significant parts of the Labour party are actively anti-semitic, and Corbyn does appear to be happy to see Brexit continuing. The reason he has found defending these issues hard is because there is more than a grain of truth to them. And on both he had the power to take the bite out of the accusations, and has failed to do so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Peak Corbyn?

    "Momentum would have shown they could bulldoze their way through a selection process to select a Momentum candidate in a CLP where they had no genuinely active base. They would have proved they were invincible. In fact, they have proved the exact opposite.

    All the money they spent, phone calls they made, frontbench endorsements they secured, door-to-door canvassing and celebrity visits from Owen Jones translated into just 135 votes out of a potential 1,600. The most important lesson to take from this is that there is no substitute for active CLP organisation against Momentum. It not only renders them beatable, but comprehensively beatable."

    https://labourlist.org/2018/05/matt-pound-how-janet-daby-won-the-lewisham-east-selection-race/

    Both this and the Owen Jones earlier piece seem unnecessarily confrontational to me. Thankfully both seem to think the candidate is excellent.

    Certainly Labour need to move away from the idea that former spads/relatives of MPs can get parachuted in and I'm glad that didn't happen on this occasion.
    Instead of SPADs, things have now moved on so that the best people to sit in parliament are those who have spent the last decade dealing with dog mess and potholes. I'd rather have a bunch of PPEers running the show.

    What I'd really like is a set of MPs from a diverse range of backgrounds - personal and professional. Fat chance of that though.
    Add overgrown hedges and broken lampposts too which believe it or not were some of the issues in my council campaign!

    Though at least winning a council seat shows you can run a campaign which might be more useful in a marginal seat than an ex PPE SPAD
    Being a PPE wonk certainly failed to impress the voters in my ward!
    A pothole, local planning, traffic calming, anti social behaviour specialist would probably be more ideal if you want to be a councillor I agree
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
    It is more or less obligatory for serving members of HMF. For anyone else I think it is a bit de trop.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Apparently Janet Daby voted for Corbyn twice. I really have to wonder how much of a moderate she is considering that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    rkrkrk said:


    What I'd really like is a set of MPs from a diverse range of backgrounds - personal and professional. Fat chance of that though.

    I think it's good to have people connected with the local area (albeit not exclusively I would say). I think she is a former social worker which I suspect is a very underrepresented profession in parliament.
    I've always felt this (diverse expertise) would be a good criterion for the Lords - it would make more sense if the revising chamber had a really good mix of professions and backgrounds, rather than merely people who've risen near the top of the more prestigious professions (plus 91 people whose ancestors were once nice to the king). Definitely good to have Nobel prize-winners and former PM and business leaders, but could do with some lorry-drivers, care workers, recent squaddies, etc.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821
    MattW said:

    daodao said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still not sure I take polls terribly seriously given recent performances.

    Correct, but Corbyn is toxic, so this poll is likely to be correct that May is seen as "best PM".
    Unlike the Bliarites, he is sound on Brexit and has sensible views on foreign policy, where he would not be beholden to criminal middle-eastern regimes.
    Todays Political Betting geography lesson.

    Iran, Syria and the Genocide enthusiasts of Gaza are all located in South America.

    Corbyn has a neutral non-interventionist view regarding Middle East conflicts/regimes, whereas the present UK government sucks up to the Salafist regimes in Saudi Arabia and its Gulf satrapies, supports the Islamist rebels in Syria and is very sympathetic to Erdogan, notwithstanding the foreign secretary's limerick about him.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Peak Corbyn?

    "Momentum would have shown they could bulldoze their way through a selection process to select a Momentum candidate in a CLP where they had no genuinely active base. They would have proved they were invincible. In fact, they have proved the exact opposite.

    All the money they spent, phone calls they made, frontbench endorsements they secured, door-to-door canvassing and celebrity visits from Owen Jones translated into just 135 votes out of a potential 1,600. The most important lesson to take from this is that there is no substitute for active CLP organisation against Momentum. It not only renders them beatable, but comprehensively beatable."

    https://labourlist.org/2018/05/matt-pound-how-janet-daby-won-the-lewisham-east-selection-race/

    Both this and the Owen Jones earlier piece seem unnecessarily confrontational to me. Thankfully both seem to think the candidate is excellent.

    Certainly Labour need to move away from the idea that former spads/relatives of MPs can get parachuted in and I'm glad that didn't happen on this occasion.
    Instead of SPADs, things have now moved on so that the best people to sit in parliament are those who have spent the last decade dealing with dog mess and potholes. I'd rather have a bunch of PPEers running the show.

    What I'd really like is a set of MPs from a diverse range of backgrounds - personal and professional. Fat chance of that though.
    Add overgrown hedges and broken lampposts too which believe it or not were some of the issues in my council campaign!

    Though at least winning a council seat shows you can run a campaign which might be more useful in a marginal seat than an ex PPE SPAD
    Being a PPE wonk certainly failed to impress the voters in my ward!
    The quality of people in Parliament is variable. Are Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn the most talented leaders of their generation? No. Not even close.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    daodao said:

    MattW said:

    daodao said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Still not sure I take polls terribly seriously given recent performances.

    Correct, but Corbyn is toxic, so this poll is likely to be correct that May is seen as "best PM".
    Unlike the Bliarites, he is sound on Brexit and has sensible views on foreign policy, where he would not be beholden to criminal middle-eastern regimes.
    Todays Political Betting geography lesson.

    Iran, Syria and the Genocide enthusiasts of Gaza are all located in South America.

    Corbyn has a neutral non-interventionist view regarding Middle East conflicts/regimes, whereas the present UK government sucks up to the Salafist regimes in Saudi Arabia and its Gulf satrapies, supports the Islamist rebels in Syria and is very sympathetic to Erdogan, notwithstanding the foreign secretary's limerick about him.
    Your understanding of the word 'neutral' needs work.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My spidey sense is that the Tories have retained their GE surge in places like Stoke whilst the froth has come off of Labour in their more middle class gains giving back Battersea, Canterbury, Leamington and places like that.

    That lines up with what I think is happening as well. I think the middle classes are facing up to what a Corbyn government means for them and that Corbyn has completely refused debate on staying in the single market meaning his Brexit would look basically the same as whatever the Tories have planned.
    I think it's more that the last few months have been entirely defensive territory for Corbyn - no we're not anti-semitic, no we're not collaborating on Brexit, etc. Meanwhile May is seen as getting on with Brexit, however shambolically.

    Both parts subject to change...
    "no, we're not antisemitic"
    does something stupid
    "errr, we're really not antisemitic"
    Labour member does something antisemitic.

    repeat

    repeat

    repeat

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    MaxPB said:

    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
    Any song with 'thee' in the title sounds more suitable to be the national anthem of Yorkshire.
    South Yorkshire , maybe ? Never hear that in York.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Now this is interesting. Just a bone thrown to the ERG or something more?

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/998542781042880513
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Now this is interesting. Just a bone thrown to the ERG or something more?
    twitter.com/faisalislam/status/998542781042880513


    Preparation for the next French strike? :p
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    TGOHF said:
    My guess is that most Catholics who say don't know would in fact vote for Unification, leading to a win of about 62-65% for the pro-Union side.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    DavidL said:

    O/T we struggle to manage more than about 12k enforced deportations a year from the UK. The proposed new Italian government is committed to a "priority" of 500k deportations. I really struggle to see how this would be possible with even the pretense of due process.

    The new government may not be terribly interested in due process.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Yorkcity said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
    Any song with 'thee' in the title sounds more suitable to be the national anthem of Yorkshire.
    South Yorkshire , maybe ? Never hear that in York.
    Does anyone work Nine while five in York ?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    Yorkcity said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
    Any song with 'thee' in the title sounds more suitable to be the national anthem of Yorkshire.
    South Yorkshire , maybe ? Never hear that in York.
    Wheear 'ast tha bin sin' ah saw thee, ah saw thee?
    On Ilkla Mooar baht 'at
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    My guess is that most Catholics who say don't know would in fact vote for Unification, leading to a win of about 62-65% for the pro-Union side.
    Don't entirely agree. That would be one hell of a status quo disruption and many of any faith would not necessarily want to sacrifice the next 10-20 years sorting things out.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Apparently Janet Daby voted for Corbyn twice. I really have to wonder how much of a moderate she is considering that.

    Initially, I read that as Janet Daley.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Sean_F said:

    Apparently Janet Daby voted for Corbyn twice. I really have to wonder how much of a moderate she is considering that.

    Initially, I read that as Janet Daley.
    Hah, me too!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    To really annoy the French, choose 'All You Need is Love'.
    Seriously 'La Marseillaise' must be the best national anthem of them all.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    rkrkrk said:


    What I'd really like is a set of MPs from a diverse range of backgrounds - personal and professional. Fat chance of that though.

    I think it's good to have people connected with the local area (albeit not exclusively I would say). I think she is a former social worker which I suspect is a very underrepresented profession in parliament.
    I've always felt this (diverse expertise) would be a good criterion for the Lords - it would make more sense if the revising chamber had a really good mix of professions and backgrounds, rather than merely people who've risen near the top of the more prestigious professions (plus 91 people whose ancestors were once nice to the king). Definitely good to have Nobel prize-winners and former PM and business leaders, but could do with some lorry-drivers, care workers, recent squaddies, etc.
    Use the jury system. Have people serve for one Parliamentary session from Queen's Speech to Queen's Speech.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Labour did awfully in opposition from Jeremy Corbyn's election of leader right up to the 2017 general election campaign. Jeremy Corbyn's personal ratings have subsided back towards previous levels but Labour's polling has not. Something interesting is happening.

    That's not entirely accurate. The gap Corbyn inherited closed, including the occasional lead or tie in the first half of 2016. Not brilliant for Opposition, sure, but not awful.

    The gap started to widen in the aftermath of the referendum, and May's election - and this was Labour falling as well as Conservatives strengthening from ex-UKIP.

    image
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    RobD said:

    Now this is interesting. Just a bone thrown to the ERG or something more?
    twitter.com/faisalislam/status/998542781042880513


    Preparation for the next French strike? :p
    Or recognition the Germans will veto the proposed customs deal as “cherry picking”.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Anazina said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Dancer,

    Miss Amazina?

    Never mind, consider her promotion to maleness as a compliment.


    Ms Cyclefree can be super-male if she wants to be.

    PS I don't know where the smiley face emoji lives.


    I have never stated whether I am male or female!
    Or someone in between....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Elizabeth line news: Major milestone for Crossrail project as TfL takes over Paddington to Heathrow trains"

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/tfl-takes-over-heathrow-trains-in-major-crossrail-project-milestone-a3843951.html
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Anazina said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Dancer,

    Miss Amazina?

    Never mind, consider her promotion to maleness as a compliment.


    Ms Cyclefree can be super-male if she wants to be.

    PS I don't know where the smiley face emoji lives.


    I have never stated whether I am male or female!
    Or someone in between....
    Maybe your initials are TR.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    MaxPB said:

    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
    Any song with 'thee' in the title sounds more suitable to be the national anthem of Yorkshire.
    What, like the former US national anthem ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Country,_'Tis_of_Thee
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    O/T we struggle to manage more than about 12k enforced deportations a year from the UK. The proposed new Italian government is committed to a "priority" of 500k deportations. I really struggle to see how this would be possible with even the pretense of due process.

    The new government may not be terribly interested in due process.
    And what will the EU and the Charter of Fundamental Freedoms have to say about that? It's not difficult to see tension ratcheting up fairly quickly.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his allies are continuing to use London as a base for their "corrupt assets", according to a foreign affairs committee report."

    https://news.sky.com/story/mps-scathing-report-says-uk-is-turning-blind-eye-to-putins-dirty-money-11380342
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    My guess is that most Catholics who say don't know would in fact vote for Unification, leading to a win of about 62-65% for the pro-Union side.
    I am picking up a strong sentiment coming from Northern Ireland to not rock the boat. It gets very unpredictable if Brexit does indeed rock the boat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    AndyJS said:

    "Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his allies are continuing to use London as a base for their "corrupt assets", according to a foreign affairs committee report."

    https://news.sky.com/story/mps-scathing-report-says-uk-is-turning-blind-eye-to-putins-dirty-money-11380342

    In totally unrelated news:
    https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/998199134283845632
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited May 2018
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:
    My guess is that most Catholics who say don't know would in fact vote for Unification, leading to a win of about 62-65% for the pro-Union side.
    I am picking up a strong sentiment coming from Northern Ireland to not rock the boat. It gets very unpredictable if Brexit does indeed rock the boat.
    I don't think it does. "Remain in the UK & Leave the EU" overwhemingly beats "Remain in the EU and join the Irish Republic" in a forced choice poll I think.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    Anazina said:

    felix said:

    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:
    She'd probably get more support if she'd said scrap it because it's a bit shit.
    God Save the Queen is the Theresa May of national anthems. Unimaginative and uninspiring, it remains only because no-one can agree on the best replacement.
    At least England should have an anthem.

    My suggestion:

    'Everyday Is Like Sunday' by Morrissey
    Jerusalem or Chariots of fire - although to be fair the former includes the latter.
    Yes. Jerusalem is the clear choice – and is already used as the English anthem at the Commonwealth Games. I have no idea why we continue to use GSTQ – which is a dirge (this is not a republican point, I simply think the tune is not uplifting at all, which is kind of the point in sports – witness instead Land of All My Fathers and the Marseillaise)
    I vow to thee my country, would be my first choice. Though a bit nationalistic for pacifist lefties.
    Any song with 'thee' in the title sounds more suitable to be the national anthem of Yorkshire.
    What, like the former US national anthem ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Country,_'Tis_of_Thee
    On those few times we were present at a singing of GSTQ when we lived in the UK, my wife insisted on singing the lyrics of My Country 'Tis of Thee. When we decided to move to the US I threatened to learn the lyrics of Anacreon in Heaven, the old English drinking song that gave the melody to The Star Spangled Banner, but never bothered to as a) they're incredibly dull and b) no-one actually sings the US national anthem in public here: it's always sung (usually very poorly) by a single guest singer while everyone stands respectfully.
This discussion has been closed.