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  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    edited May 2018
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:
    Odd how Brexiteers are suddenly much less keen on parliamentary sovereignty when parliament takes decisions they disagree with.
    Odd how many Remainers wilfully misunderstand the meaning of Parliamentary sovereignty when they think it suits their cause.
    My understanding of the meaning of Parliamentary sovereignty is that parliament is the highest authority in the state - Parliament can make whatever decision it likes and all other sources of authority, including EU law and referendums, are subordinate to it.

    What is your definition?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    I went to Oxford. My parents were unemployed and, when I went up, more children from Eton went to Oxbridge than those who were eligible for Free School Meals across the whole of the UK. However, as a white male, I would be seen as less of an example of opening up Oxford to a greater range of more diverse backgrounds than, in the eyes of Lammy, a black old Etonian from a privileged background just because he is black or, in the eyes of Harriet Harman et al, the daughter of a Duke (or the niece of an Earl) just because she is a woman. To be fair to Lammy, he is probably less guilty than Harman as he does seem to care about the poor.

    It is why I really despise the modern Left.

    It sounds as if you are in sympathy with our Shadow Education Secretary. Take your blinkers off, the Left are no more monolithic on these issues than the right:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/jan/03/white-working-class-boys-should-be-more-aspirational-says-labour-minister



  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    Quite. We were told the world would end if we didn’t join the Euro. There were no end of business leaders saying they’d pack their factories up and leave on the first shuttle train through the Chunnel. It was bollocks then and so we should be forgiven for being a tad skeptical at all the prophesies of doom retweeted from the latest bod to bewail the fact the people were pissed off with the EU.

    Our firm is snowed under with work. We’ve war gamed Brexit and it’s just not a biggy either way for us, not all plain sailing for some things, some things may actively be better if we got FTA’s with our growing worldwide markets.

    The world is not about to end no matter how much some fervently wish it.
    What business are you in?
    Engineering/manufacturing depends on your definition.

    Dear god man get off PB and get to work.

    Deutsche Bank to make 10,000 redundancies

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/deutsche-bank-will-rund-10-000-stellen-streichen-15603616.html

    I hope youre not reading this in Frankfurt :-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2018
    The difference in Richmond Park was the LDs were the main challengers to the Tories and held the seat from 1997 to 2010. They were also the main challengers in Witney too to the Tories.

    The 14% the LD vote rose by in Witney would also not be enough to take 2nd place in Lewisham East unlike most of those votes came from Tories which is unlikely.

    I also know Tories who have gone to campaign on the by election already and will try and get down one Saturday myself before the campaign if possible with a few of my local association members
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. No thanks.

    A totally elected Upper House is a recipe for constitutional gridlock. Yes please.
    There's no government like no government.
    Italy says you’re wrong.
    On the contrary, Italy is a shining example of why I'm right.

    In the 1960s, 70s and 80s, there was no stable government in Italy. Coalitions rarely lasted longer than a few months, before degenerating into infighting, and resulting the election of (yet another) Prime Minister, backed by a slightly different coalition of parties. Italy was a European tiger economy, and became - at one point - the largest exporter in the world, ahead of Germany, the US, Japan and China.

    In the 1990s that changed: Berlusconi and Forza Italia promised strong government, united the right, and became Premier. For 30 years, Italy has had either majority or stable coalition government. And the result of this has been economic stagnation.

    When hard times come, people think they need strong government. But what they almost certainly need is less government.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    This Grenfell Tower 'inquiry' is getting a little odd.

    Letting victims and the relatives of victims give evidence about the personal effects of the tragedy may provide good media, and may (or may not) help in the grieving process; however I fail to see how it will actually help get to the truth over what happened, or prevent any such incidents in the future.

    Or am I being too harsh?

    You have victim impact statements in court before sentencing. I don't think it does any harm whatsoever for the inquiry to hear right at the outset just what the tragedy has meant for the victims and their families.
    Also gives the victims comfort that they were called first - minimises frustration with a no doubt long, boring and slow process building up.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Urquhart, no idea.

    Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.

    It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.

    While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.
    Jordan Peterson is a loon - which admittedly is no bar to popularity in the US.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/style/jordan-peterson-12-rules-for-life.html
    Why do you think he's a loon?
  • TGOHF said:
    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2018

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:
    Odd how Brexiteers are suddenly much less keen on parliamentary sovereignty when parliament takes decisions they disagree with.
    Odd how many Remainers wilfully misunderstand the meaning of Parliamentary sovereignty when they think it suits their cause.
    What is your definition of it?
    That legislation passed by Parliament cannot be challenged from outside. In other words a court cannot find a law passed by Parliament to be illegal, and no Parliament can bind its successors.

    This is contrast to the EU and the USA, to give two obvious examples, where courts can strike laws down.

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/sovereignty/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    Quite. We were told the world would end if we didn’t join the Euro. There were no end of business leaders saying they’d pack their factories up and leave on the first shuttle train through the Chunnel. It was bollocks then and so we should be forgiven for being a tad skeptical at all the prophesies of doom retweeted from the latest bod to bewail the fact the people were pissed off with the EU.

    Our firm is snowed under with work. We’ve war gamed Brexit and it’s just not a biggy either way for us, not all plain sailing for some things, some things may actively be better if we got FTA’s with our growing worldwide markets.

    The world is not about to end no matter how much some fervently wish it.
    What business are you in?
    Engineering/manufacturing depends on your definition.

    Dear god man get off PB and get to work.

    Deutsche Bank to make 10,000 redundancies

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/deutsche-bank-will-rund-10-000-stellen-streichen-15603616.html

    I hope youre not reading this in Frankfurt :-)
    Because of Brexit?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mr. Urquhart, no idea.

    Rewriting history, deliberately obfuscating the truth to impose modern norms upon the past, is demented.

    It also gives more credence to the one of Jordan Peterson key hobby horses, that academics are overwhelmingly leftest / Marxists and as the journalist obsessed by male dominated patriarchy keeping women down.

    While I think there are issues with his argument, it isn't super extreme. However it can lead one down a path to more extreme stuff, because people see hey the mainstream guys are lying about historical fact.
    Jordan Peterson is a loon - which admittedly is no bar to popularity in the US.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/style/jordan-peterson-12-rules-for-life.html
    Why do you think he's a loon?
    I'd imagine he'd suggested he had mental health issues because JP doesn't subscribe to his leftwing identity politics worldview.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2018
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
  • Foxy said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    I went to Oxford. My parents were unemployed and, when I went up, more children from Eton went to Oxbridge than those who were eligible for Free School Meals across the whole of the UK. However, as a white male, I would be seen as less of an example of opening up Oxford to a greater range of more diverse backgrounds than, in the eyes of Lammy, a black old Etonian from a privileged background just because he is black or, in the eyes of Harriet Harman et al, the daughter of a Duke (or the niece of an Earl) just because she is a woman. To be fair to Lammy, he is probably less guilty than Harman as he does seem to care about the poor.

    It is why I really despise the modern Left.

    It sounds as if you are in sympathy with our Shadow Education Secretary. Take your blinkers off, the Left are no more monolithic on these issues than the right:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/jan/03/white-working-class-boys-should-be-more-aspirational-says-labour-minister



    And Angela Rayner is right. But how much attention does that get in the modern Labour party against the constant comments about the issues facing minorities? As Morris said, Labour's attitudes are why the likes of Rotherham were ignored for so long,.

    To paraphrase St Matthew, Dr Fox, deal with your own blinkers first before pointing them out in others.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/999234842159087616

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/999256239845634048
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I'm sure it's been discussed but I've just walked in and heard the news that Brexit is going to cost 20 billion more than anticipated because of the customs fiasco.....

    So still going according to plan
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Roger said:

    I'm sure it's been discussed but I've just walked in and heard the news that Brexit is going to cost 20 billion more than anticipated because of the customs fiasco.....

    So still going according to plan

    its going to be up there with the millennium bug and not joining the Euro for sure.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    I'm sure it's been discussed but I've just walked in and heard the news that Brexit is going to cost 20 billion more than anticipated because of the customs fiasco.....

    So still going according to plan

    Maybe we should spend that on the NHS instead?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Scott_P said:

    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/999234842159087616

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/999256239845634048
    Except it didn't.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:
    Odd how Brexiteers are suddenly much less keen on parliamentary sovereignty when parliament takes decisions they disagree with.
    Odd how many Remainers wilfully misunderstand the meaning of Parliamentary sovereignty when they think it suits their cause.
    What is your definition of it?
    That legislation passed by Parliament cannot be challenged from outside. In other words a court cannot find a law passed by Parliament to be illegal, and no Parliament can bind its successors.

    This is contrast to the EU and the USA, to give two obvious examples, where courts can strike laws down.

    https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/sovereignty/
    Yes, agreed, but do you accept that parliament is the ultimate authority? A higher power than any other?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    Quite. We were told the world would end if we didn’t join the Euro. There were no end of business leaders saying they’d pack their factories up and leave on the first shuttle train through the Chunnel. It was bollocks then and so we should be forgiven for being a tad skeptical at all the prophesies of doom retweeted from the latest bod to bewail the fact the people were pissed off with the EU.

    Our firm is snowed under with work. We’ve war gamed Brexit and it’s just not a biggy either way for us, not all plain sailing for some things, some things may actively be better if we got FTA’s with our growing worldwide markets.

    The world is not about to end no matter how much some fervently wish it.
    What business are you in?
    Engineering/manufacturing depends on your definition.

    Dear god man get off PB and get to work.

    Deutsche Bank to make 10,000 redundancies

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/deutsche-bank-will-rund-10-000-stellen-streichen-15603616.html

    I hope youre not reading this in Frankfurt :-)
    Reminds me of the Chinese General...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/999234842159087616

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/999256239845634048
    Except it didn't.
    More fake news from Remainers. Sad.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    TGOHF said:
    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    I think a lot depends on the constituency: Conservative MPs in heavily (60%+) Remain constituencies are probably better able to 'rebel' than those in Leave areas.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    TGOHF said:
    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?
    I would imagine that some of the recalcitrant backbenchers are under an amount of local pressure as you describe. I wouldn’t be happy at any MPs who defy government policy in public when the numbers are so tight.
  • HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2018
    Believe it or not, it’s possible to talk/care about a range of issues - in this case race, gender and class - at the same time. It’s not an either/or thing. In many cases these issues will intersect with one another - you can be person of colour/BME and be working class and in the case of Rotherham issues concerning both race and gender are relevant there. What’s interesting is that there’s been a Conservative government in power for eight years - so certainly no dastardly lefties caring ‘too much’ about issues concerning race or gender - and yet WWC boys still face many barriers. Maybe it’s because issues concerning class in this country are long standing, aren’t caused by lefties caring about race or gender issues.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    TGOHF said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/999234842159087616

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/999256239845634048
    Except it didn't.
    More fake news from Remainers. Sad.

    bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36617318

    ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:
    We voted as a country not as a constituency.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:


    Except it didn't.

    A clear majority of voters in Bath and North East Somerset elected to remain

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36617318
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    Possibly the only thing funnier than watching the US media completely lose their sh!t at Trump’s election, is going to be their reaction if he gets re-elected in 2020! :D
  • rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    I think a lot depends on the constituency: Conservative MPs in heavily (60%+) Remain constituencies are probably better able to 'rebel' than those in Leave areas.
    I had read that Nicky Morgan's Chairman respected her right to comment but was certainly not that impressed with some of her criticisms. Given that was a Leave area, I would imagine he might be one of the ones who would have a chat.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/999234842159087616

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/999256239845634048
    Except it didn't.
    Except it did: 57.9% remain, 42.1% Leave
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    We voted as a country not as a constituency.

    Tell JRM
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Pulpstar said:
    We voted as a country not as a constituency.
    Of course we did but JRM started it with his "constituents" - he could have said "the Country".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Except it didn't.

    A clear majority of voters in Bath and North East Somerset elected to remain

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36617318
    Oh dear.
  • Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Except it didn't.

    A clear majority of voters in Bath and North East Somerset elected to remain

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36617318
    But he doesn't represent Bath, which is likely to be what drove the majority in the area. The results were by council, not constituency.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    For the terminally thick here, Mogg's constituency does NOT include Bath.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Believe it or not, it’s possible to talk/care about a range of issues - in this case race, gender and class - at the same time. It’s not an either/or thing. In many cases these issues will intersect with one another - you can be person of colour/BME and be working class and in the case of Rotherham issues concerning both race and gender are relevant there. What’s interesting is that there’s been a Conservative government in power for eight years - so certainly no dastardly lefties caring ‘too much’ about issues concerning race or gender - and yet WWC boys still face many barriers. Maybe it’s because issues concerning class in this country are long standing, aren’t caused by lefties caring about race or gender issues.

    Or we can just call people people, and realise that trying to pigeonhole them into various “Identity” victim groups is at best counterproductive, and at worst leads to problems like we see in Rotherham and elsewhere.
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    Possibly the only thing funnier than watching the US media completely lose their sh!t at Trump’s election, is going to be their reaction if he gets re-elected in 2020! :D
    +1. They will go absolutely mental.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Believe it or not, it’s possible to talk/care about a range of issues - in this case race, gender and class - at the same time. It’s not an either/or thing. In many cases these issues will intersect with one another - you can be person of colour/BME and be working class and in the case of Rotherham issues concerning both race and gender are relevant there. What’s interesting is that there’s been a Conservative government in power for eight years - so certainly no dastardly lefties caring ‘too much’ about issues concerning race or gender - and yet WWC boys still face many barriers. Maybe it’s because issues concerning class in this country are long standing, aren’t caused by lefties caring about race or gender issues.

    Or we can just call people people, and realise that trying to pigeonhole them into various “Identity” victim groups is at best counterproductive, and at worst leads to problems like we see in Rotherham and elsewhere.
    Well, for many people we don’t live in a world where people are just people, but where a legacy exists concerning race and gender (and class) and they wish to discuss those experiences.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:


    Except it didn't.

    A clear majority of voters in Bath and North East Somerset elected to remain

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36617318
    Does JRM represent Bath? Someone should tell him.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/999234842159087616

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/999256239845634048
    Except it didn't.
    Except it did: 57.9% remain, 42.1% Leave
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
    On the Mogg argument, John Redwood will have to announce his retirement. Wokingham voted Remain.

    However, since MPs are representatives, John Redwood need not retire.

    I don't know which way Beaconsfield voted but it's located in a county that voted Remain. If it went the same way, why try to deselect Dominic Grieve?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    I think that's a good bet, although I suspect that Trump's chance of reelection are better if he loses the House of Representatives. Not having someone to blame might be a serious problem for him.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    HYUFD said:

    The difference in Richmond Park was the LDs were the main challengers to the Tories and held the seat from 1997 to 2010. They were also the main challengers in Witney too to the Tories.

    I'd agree on Richmond Park, but in Witney, Labour and the Lib Dems had historically been much of a muchness in runner-upness, until 2015, when the Lib Dems slipped to fourth (Labour being second and UKIP third) with only 6.8%.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    Possibly the only thing funnier than watching the US media completely lose their sh!t at Trump’s election, is going to be their reaction if he gets re-elected in 2020! :D
    +1. They will go absolutely mental.
    Trump's good for the ratings.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Bath is over 47% Lib Dem :)
  • Sandpit said:

    Believe it or not, it’s possible to talk/care about a range of issues - in this case race, gender and class - at the same time. It’s not an either/or thing. In many cases these issues will intersect with one another - you can be person of colour/BME and be working class and in the case of Rotherham issues concerning both race and gender are relevant there. What’s interesting is that there’s been a Conservative government in power for eight years - so certainly no dastardly lefties caring ‘too much’ about issues concerning race or gender - and yet WWC boys still face many barriers. Maybe it’s because issues concerning class in this country are long standing, aren’t caused by lefties caring about race or gender issues.

    Or we can just call people people, and realise that trying to pigeonhole them into various “Identity” victim groups is at best counterproductive, and at worst leads to problems like we see in Rotherham and elsewhere.
    That is true, Sandpit. I suspect that one of the major underlying reasons why the WWC get far less attention is that, when it comes to the people making the decisions, the general rule is that half of them and, more importantly, their children are female, some may be BAME or gay or transgender but almost certainly none of them will be poor.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    My thanks to the Apocalypse for copying this tweet.

    May I point out I've been suggesting the same point for months, maybe years.

    So another example of PB being ahead of the game.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    North East somerset - 52.1% leave 47.9 remain.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Scott_P said:

    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/999234842159087616

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/999256239845634048
    The totals on there add up to well over 100k. Was there a 140% turnout for the referendum in JRM's constituency?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,757
    Pulpstar said:

    For the terminally thick here, Mogg's constituency does NOT include Bath.

    Yes. His constituency voted 52% Leave.

    Bath voted 68% Remain.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/major-mortgage-benefit-being-axed-12585312

    Odd of the mirror to highlight a very sensible mortgage change:

    The big difference between the government loan and a mortgage is this: the government's loan won't have to be repaid each month.

    Instead the full amount is only due as soon as you die, sell your house or transfer ownership of it to a relative or friend.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    Possibly the only thing funnier than watching the US media completely lose their sh!t at Trump’s election, is going to be their reaction if he gets re-elected in 2020! :D
    +1. They will go absolutely mental.
    Trump's good for the ratings.
    https://twitter.com/thr/status/990428497356013568?s=21

    Far from hating it, US media will love it if Trump gets re-elected in 2020. Those liberal centrists are still capitalists, after all.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. F, so, Lord Adonis is gleefully regurgitating wildly inaccurate nonsense about the EU? Quelle surprise! :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    Possibly the only thing funnier than watching the US media completely lose their sh!t at Trump’s election, is going to be their reaction if he gets re-elected in 2020! :D
    Trump will likely win if he faces a coastal liberal like Warren, Harris or Booker.

    If the Democrats want to win they need a populist who can match him and win the rustbelt, I still think Sanders is their best bet. Biden would also have a good shot but his problem would be winning the Democratic primaries
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    I think that's a good bet, although I suspect that Trump's chance of reelection are better if he loses the House of Representatives. Not having someone to blame might be a serious problem for him.
    One of the things that has got almost no attention over here on the Mueller investigation but is increasingly gaining a lot of attention on the Republican side is that, yes, things are bigger than Watergate but because the evidence points to the FBI and CIA, possibly / probably with the connivance of the Obama administration, putting spies into the Trump campaign in 2016 with the express intention of helping HRC. The one below is just one of the many articles floating around,

    https://spectator.org/john-brennans-plot-to-infiltrate-the-trump-campaign/

    Your view on this obviously depends on which side of the fence you sit. FWIW, the fact that the NY Times and the Washington Post both ran stories that, yes, the FBI / CIA did put someone in but, it wasn't a spy, it was an informant and anyway it was for Trump's benefit, suggests there may be a lot more to come on this story. What it is doing though is energising the Republican base, which should help Republican turnout in November and also likely to mean a more partisan voting pattern. It is one of the reasons I think the Republicans may do better than expected.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    My thanks to the Apocalypse for copying this tweet.

    May I point out I've been suggesting the same point for months, maybe years.

    So another example of PB being ahead of the game.
    You’ve been on the money when it comes this + saying that the right have forgetten about aspiration, and the left have forgetten about fairness.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Scott_P said:

    We voted as a country not as a constituency.

    Tell JRM
    Rees-Mogg is being ineffably stupid here. It's mathematically possible for most people to have voted Leave yet for them to reside in the smaller amount of constituencies. In that scenario would Mogg declared that Remain had won it? What a twit!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,757
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    OTOH, his rating is only about 3% down on 2016, and into is positive in several States where the Democrats are trying to retain Senate seats. The Republicans also don't seem likely to select loons in competitive races.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Regarding Trump and California, there is one element which potentially plays against Trump in OC.

    Historically, if you earned $100,000/year, and paid $15,000 in state taxes, you would pay federal taxes only on $85,000. The recent changes limit the maximum deduction to $10,000, so you would now pay tax on $90,000.

    This isn't a small issue in the wealthy parts of California: my property - for example - are $40,000/year.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    OTOH, his rating is only about 3% down on 2016, and into is positive in several States where the Democrats are trying to retain Senate seats. The Republicans also don't seem likely to select loons in competitive races.
    I would be very surprised if the Republicans didn't increase their lead in the Senate. The only really likely Dem gain is Nevada, and there are three or four Senate races they look very shaky.

    (Although West Virginia is suddenly looking better for the Dems, given the decision of Don Blankenship - who lost the Republican Primary - to stand for Constitution Party there. If he syphons off 5-6% of the Republican vote, he'll pretty much ensure Manchin manages an unlikely hold.)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_P said:

    We voted as a country not as a constituency.

    Tell JRM
    Rees-Mogg is being ineffably stupid here. It's mathematically possible for most people to have voted Leave yet for them to reside in the smaller amount of constituencies. In that scenario would Mogg declared that Remain had won it? What a twit!
    I fail to see any stupidity given that your odd hypothetical isn't the case.

    His side both won the referendum and won an even greater percentage of constituencies than that (thanks to Remain piling the vote high in eg Scotland, London etc). In that case why not use an argument to embarrass his political opponents who are voting against both the nation and their constituents?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/999234842159087616

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/999256239845634048
    Except it didn't.
    Except it did: 57.9% remain, 42.1% Leave
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
    His seat doesn't contain Bath.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    Foxy said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    I went to Oxford. My parents were unemployed and, when I went up, more children from Eton went to Oxbridge than those who were eligible for Free School Meals across the whole of the UK. However, as a white male, I would be seen as less of an example of opening up Oxford to a greater range of more diverse backgrounds than, in the eyes of Lammy, a black old Etonian from a privileged background just because he is black or, in the eyes of Harriet Harman et al, the daughter of a Duke (or the niece of an Earl) just because she is a woman. To be fair to Lammy, he is probably less guilty than Harman as he does seem to care about the poor.

    It is why I really despise the modern Left.

    It sounds as if you are in sympathy with our Shadow Education Secretary. Take your blinkers off, the Left are no more monolithic on these issues than the right:

    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/jan/03/white-working-class-boys-should-be-more-aspirational-says-labour-minister



    And Angela Rayner is right. But how much attention does that get in the modern Labour party against the constant comments about the issues facing minorities? As Morris said, Labour's attitudes are why the likes of Rotherham were ignored for so long,.

    To paraphrase St Matthew, Dr Fox, deal with your own blinkers first before pointing them out in others.
    Well, Ms Rayner is Shadow in charge of Education Policy, and the most evidence based way of improving the educational prospects of working class boys is early intervention in a Sure Start type initiative, which is a Labour policy that was cut by the current government.

    But I see you need to twist the facts to fit your anti-left predjudices.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    OTOH, his rating is only about 3% down on 2016, and into is positive in several States where the Democrats are trying to retain Senate seats. The Republicans also don't seem likely to select loons in competitive races.
    If Trump had got 43% in 2016 rather than the 46% he did get, Hillary would have won Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and easily won the Electoral College and the Presidency
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PickardJE: implication: they were always able to give NHS an extra £350m/week without leaving the EU? https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/999327537493889024
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

    I don't think the Republicans will win Florida this time around, but North Dakota looks like an easy pickup for them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    Oops, just channeling my inner Remainer :lol:

    Northeast Somerset alone (excluding Bath) was 52.1% Leave, 47.9% Remain

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016#List_of_constituency_results
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

    I don't think the Republicans will win Florida this time around, but North Dakota looks like an easy pickup for them.
    Their candidate is Rick Scott, the former Governor, who is generally perceived to have done a very good job. You might be right but all the polls since he was picked to stand for them have suggested a Scott lead.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heidi Allen went a lot quieter when it was reported that her constituency chairman had apparently threatened to deselect her over her constant remarks on the Government. I wonder whether the description of the likes of Nicky M, Dominic Grieve etc as "rebels" is intended to send a signal to their respective constituency heads too?

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/999234842159087616

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/999256239845634048
    Except it didn't.
    Except it did: 57.9% remain, 42.1% Leave
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016
    His seat doesn't contain Bath.
    Always thought he was a shower person :)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    Possibly the only thing funnier than watching the US media completely lose their sh!t at Trump’s election, is going to be their reaction if he gets re-elected in 2020! :D
    +1. They will go absolutely mental.
    Trump's good for the ratings.
    ttps://twitter.com/thr/status/990428497356013568?s=21

    Far from hating it, US media will love it if Trump gets re-elected in 2020. Those liberal centrists are still capitalists, after all.
    Michelle Wolf was right, the TV ratings for the late night shows are through the roof - as all the coastal liberals enjoy talking among themselves about how they think the President is evil today.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    I think that's a good bet, although I suspect that Trump's chance of reelection are better if he loses the House of Representatives. Not having someone to blame might be a serious problem for him.
    One of the things that has got almost no attention over here on the Mueller investigation but is increasingly gaining a lot of attention on the Republican side is that, yes, things are bigger than Watergate but because the evidence points to the FBI and CIA, possibly / probably with the connivance of the Obama administration, putting spies into the Trump campaign in 2016 with the express intention of helping HRC. The one below is just one of the many articles floating around,

    https://spectator.org/john-brennans-plot-to-infiltrate-the-trump-campaign/

    Your view on this obviously depends on which side of the fence you sit. FWIW, the fact that the NY Times and the Washington Post both ran stories that, yes, the FBI / CIA did put someone in but, it wasn't a spy, it was an informant and anyway it was for Trump's benefit, suggests there may be a lot more to come on this story. What it is doing though is energising the Republican base, which should help Republican turnout in November and also likely to mean a more partisan voting pattern. It is one of the reasons I think the Republicans may do better than expected.
    I live in Los Angeles, but I'm not a conspiracy minded kind of guy.

    The FBI, lest we forget, announced the reopening of the Clinton email investigation just before the election. That's not the actions of a group that was working for Obama to undermine Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    edited May 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

    I don't think the Republicans will win Florida this time around, but North Dakota looks like an easy pickup for them.
    Their candidate is Rick Scott, the former Governor, who is generally perceived to have done a very good job. You might be right but all the polls since he was picked to stand for them have suggested a Scott lead.
    There's been one poll: https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/fl/florida_senate_scott_vs_nelson-6246.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited May 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

    The Democrats are ahead in 2/3 of the last Florida Senate polls.

    The Democratic incumbent also led both West Virginia Senate polls this month

    In Indiana the Republican candidate led the latest poll by 1%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2018


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2018
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    We need a Senate, with just 25 wholly elected Senators from each country.

    I will oppose any House of Lords reform that renames it the Senate or calls its members Senators.

    We are *not* a republic. Peers, Member of the Lords.. anything but Senator.

    These things matter.
    I can’t believe I’m saying this but....I agree with you.
    And yet Northern Ireland had a Senate from 1920 to 1973 and senior Scottish judges are styled Senator.

    Last time I looked, both Scotland and Northern Ireland were parts of the monarchy known as the United Kingdom.

    And not to mention all the other British-derived monarchies around the world with Senates, starting with Canada (created by the British North America Act 1867 of the UK Parliament), Australia, etc etc.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Believe it or not, it’s possible to talk/care about a range of issues - in this case race, gender and class - at the same time. It’s not an either/or thing. In many cases these issues will intersect with one another - you can be person of colour/BME and be working class and in the case of Rotherham issues concerning both race and gender are relevant there. What’s interesting is that there’s been a Conservative government in power for eight years - so certainly no dastardly lefties caring ‘too much’ about issues concerning race or gender - and yet WWC boys still face many barriers. Maybe it’s because issues concerning class in this country are long standing, aren’t caused by lefties caring about race or gender issues.

    Or we can just call people people, and realise that trying to pigeonhole them into various “Identity” victim groups is at best counterproductive, and at worst leads to problems like we see in Rotherham and elsewhere.
    Well, for many people we don’t live in a world where people are just people, but where a legacy exists concerning race and gender (and class) and they wish to discuss those experiences.
    That’s not unreasonable, but the logical end point is that the white working class man eventually finds his voice, and we end up with politicians like Donald Trump.


  • And Angela Rayner is right. But how much attention does that get in the modern Labour party against the constant comments about the issues facing minorities? As Morris said, Labour's attitudes are why the likes of Rotherham were ignored for so long,.

    To paraphrase St Matthew, Dr Fox, deal with your own blinkers first before pointing them out in others.

    Well, Ms Rayner is Shadow in charge of Education Policy, and the most evidence based way of improving the educational prospects of working class boys is early intervention in a Sure Start type initiative, which is a Labour policy that was cut by the current government.

    But I see you need to twist the facts to fit your anti-left predjudices.

    Terrible, isn't it - us right-wingers having such horrible prejudices whilst the saintly guardians on the left are just so pure and truthful :)

    I am committing the cardinal sin of not knowing the answer when asking the question but I would bet if you were to take the comments from the leadership on what is the greatest problem, then Jeremy C is far more interested in highlighting Islamophobia and the problems of the Palestinians than he is about the WWC.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. rpjs, but they didn't have the Lords Spiritual.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

    I don't think the Republicans will win Florida this time around, but North Dakota looks like an easy pickup for them.
    Actually Florida seems very vulnerable to me. Trump is stupid but not dumb. He's used his base there to curry favour and recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel which is guaranteed to appeal to the large community of Jewish retired people and stuffed relations with Cuba, guaranteed to appeal to Cuban Americans who are especially concentrated in the all important Dade County.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Believe it or not, it’s possible to talk/care about a range of issues - in this case race, gender and class - at the same time. It’s not an either/or thing. In many cases these issues will intersect with one another - you can be person of colour/BME and be working class and in the case of Rotherham issues concerning both race and gender are relevant there. What’s interesting is that there’s been a Conservative government in power for eight years - so certainly no dastardly lefties caring ‘too much’ about issues concerning race or gender - and yet WWC boys still face many barriers. Maybe it’s because issues concerning class in this country are long standing, aren’t caused by lefties caring about race or gender issues.

    Or we can just call people people, and realise that trying to pigeonhole them into various “Identity” victim groups is at best counterproductive, and at worst leads to problems like we see in Rotherham and elsewhere.
    Well, for many people we don’t live in a world where people are just people, but where a legacy exists concerning race and gender (and class) and they wish to discuss those experiences.
    That’s not unreasonable, but the logical end point is that the white working class man eventually finds his voice, and we end up with politicians like Donald Trump.
    Donald Trump is just another embodiment of identity politics.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    If the Dems don't take the House in November it will be a disaster for them. I don't know where they would go from there.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    Quite. We were told the world would end if we didn’t join the Euro. There were no end of business leaders saying they’d pack their factories up and leave on the first shuttle train through the Chunnel. It was bollocks then and so we should be forgiven for being a tad skeptical at all the prophesies of doom retweeted from the latest bod to bewail the fact the people were pissed off with the EU.

    Our firm is snowed under with work. We’ve war gamed Brexit and it’s just not a biggy either way for us, not all plain sailing for some things, some things may actively be better if we got FTA’s with our growing worldwide markets.

    The world is not about to end no matter how much some fervently wish it.
    What business are you in?
    Engineering/manufacturing depends on your definition.

    Then one presumes you have been paying closer attention to the customs union than others? Can you share any substantive details of your wargaming?
    Deliveries from suppliers and our deliveries are not JIT. Days/weeks often of wiggle room ( we are not automotive), rules of origin not too much of an issue except at some extreme margins, 80%+ of our business not EU (and that’s the growing 80%), opportunities for expansion all lie in far flung places, and we may especially get benefit for one possibly very big thing from a better FTA with the USA. Not a lot of purely EU standards per se to deal with in what we do.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Believe it or not, it’s possible to talk/care about a range of issues - in this case race, gender and class - at the same time. It’s not an either/or thing. In many cases these issues will intersect with one another - you can be person of colour/BME and be working class and in the case of Rotherham issues concerning both race and gender are relevant there. What’s interesting is that there’s been a Conservative government in power for eight years - so certainly no dastardly lefties caring ‘too much’ about issues concerning race or gender - and yet WWC boys still face many barriers. Maybe it’s because issues concerning class in this country are long standing, aren’t caused by lefties caring about race or gender issues.

    Or we can just call people people, and realise that trying to pigeonhole them into various “Identity” victim groups is at best counterproductive, and at worst leads to problems like we see in Rotherham and elsewhere.
    Well, for many people we don’t live in a world where people are just people, but where a legacy exists concerning race and gender (and class) and they wish to discuss those experiences.
    That’s not unreasonable, but the logical end point is that the white working class man eventually finds his voice, and we end up with politicians like Donald Trump.
    WWC men have been talking about their experiences long before Trump, or indeed before modern identity politics.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Believe it or not, it’s possible to talk/care about a range of issues - in this case race, gender and class - at the same time. It’s not an either/or thing. In many cases these issues will intersect with one another - you can be person of colour/BME and be working class and in the case of Rotherham issues concerning both race and gender are relevant there. What’s interesting is that there’s been a Conservative government in power for eight years - so certainly no dastardly lefties caring ‘too much’ about issues concerning race or gender - and yet WWC boys still face many barriers. Maybe it’s because issues concerning class in this country are long standing, aren’t caused by lefties caring about race or gender issues.

    Or we can just call people people, and realise that trying to pigeonhole them into various “Identity” victim groups is at best counterproductive, and at worst leads to problems like we see in Rotherham and elsewhere.
    Well, for many people we don’t live in a world where people are just people, but where a legacy exists concerning race and gender (and class) and they wish to discuss those experiences.
    That’s not unreasonable, but the logical end point is that the white working class man eventually finds his voice, and we end up with politicians like Donald Trump.
    WWC men have been talking about their experiences long before Trump, or indeed before modern identity politics.
    Trump is a symptom, rather than a cause.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Fenman said:

    Actually Florida seems very vulnerable to me. Trump is stupid but not dumb. He's used his base there to curry favour and recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel which is guaranteed to appeal to the large community of Jewish retired people and stuffed relations with Cuba, guaranteed to appeal to Cuban Americans who are especially concentrated in the all important Dade County.

    I could, of course, be completely wrong :)

    I don't think that current Hispanics in Florida feel the same way about Cuba that Trump's generation did. There are few people with first hand knowledge of losing businesses and homes to Castro. Most of the people I know, and I admit that I only know well off people in Florida, grew up with even their parents memories of Cuba having receded into the background. They would almost all support more - rather than less - cordial relations with Cuba.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

    The Democrats are ahead in 2/3 of the last Florida Senate polls.

    The Democratic incumbent also led both West Virginia Senate polls this month

    In Indiana the Republican candidate led the latest poll by 1%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2018


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2018
    In FL, the 2 with a Democrat lead are from Feb/March and April, the one with a Republican lead is in May. Or, 3 out of the last 5 polls had Republican leads.

    latest WV poll https://wpaintel.com/wv_senate_180511/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    MaxPB said:

    If the Dems don't take the House in November it will be a disaster for them. I don't know where they would go from there.

    I don't know, I take the opposite view. If the Dems lose the House, the Obamacare repeal becomes probable. And that's the real achilles heal of Trump and the Republicans.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: implication: they were always able to give NHS an extra £350m/week without leaving the EU? https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/999327537493889024

    Extraordinary. The Tories are now trying to out-Corbyn Corbyn with rampant government spending. The Single Market and now this - Maggie's legacy is truly dead and buried.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    Possibly the only thing funnier than watching the US media completely lose their sh!t at Trump’s election, is going to be their reaction if he gets re-elected in 2020! :D
    +1. They will go absolutely mental.
    Trump's good for the ratings.
    ttps://twitter.com/thr/status/990428497356013568?s=21

    Far from hating it, US media will love it if Trump gets re-elected in 2020. Those liberal centrists are still capitalists, after all.
    Michelle Wolf was right, the TV ratings for the late night shows are through the roof - as all the coastal liberals enjoy talking among themselves about how they think the President is evil today.
    Above all, they enjoy money and ratings.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Believe it or not, it’s possible to talk/care about a range of issues - in this case race, gender and class - at the same time. It’s not an either/or thing. In many cases these issues will intersect with one another - you can be person of colour/BME and be working class and in the case of Rotherham issues concerning both race and gender are relevant there. What’s interesting is that there’s been a Conservative government in power for eight years - so certainly no dastardly lefties caring ‘too much’ about issues concerning race or gender - and yet WWC boys still face many barriers. Maybe it’s because issues concerning class in this country are long standing, aren’t caused by lefties caring about race or gender issues.

    Or we can just call people people, and realise that trying to pigeonhole them into various “Identity” victim groups is at best counterproductive, and at worst leads to problems like we see in Rotherham and elsewhere.
    Well, for many people we don’t live in a world where people are just people, but where a legacy exists concerning race and gender (and class) and they wish to discuss those experiences.
    That’s not unreasonable, but the logical end point is that the white working class man eventually finds his voice, and we end up with politicians like Donald Trump.
    The white working class wants Trump v Sanders in the US in 2020 and maybe Corbyn v Mogg/Boris in 2022 over here.

    That would be win/win for them even if a nightmare for liberal centrists on both sides of the Atlantic
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    Quite. We were told the world would end if we didn’t join the Euro. There were no end of business leaders saying they’d pack their factories up and leave on the first shuttle train through the Chunnel. It was bollocks then and so we should be forgiven for being a tad skeptical at all the prophesies of doom retweeted from the latest bod to bewail the fact the people were pissed off with the EU.

    Our firm is snowed under with work. We’ve war gamed Brexit and it’s just not a biggy either way for us, not all plain sailing for some things, some things may actively be better if we got FTA’s with our growing worldwide markets.

    The world is not about to end no matter how much some fervently wish it.
    What business are you in?
    Engineering/manufacturing depends on your definition.

    Then one presumes you have been paying closer attention to the customs union than others? Can you share any substantive details of your wargaming?
    Deliveries from suppliers and our deliveries are not JIT. Days/weeks often of wiggle room ( we are not automotive), rules of origin not too much of an issue except at some extreme margins, 80%+ of our business not EU (and that’s the growing 80%), opportunities for expansion all lie in far flung places, and we may especially get benefit for one possibly very big thing from a better FTA with the USA. Not a lot of purely EU standards per se to deal with in what we do.
    What is the tariff your customers pay on your products into the US? In my businesses, the issue with the US is more the bureaucracy around importation rather than the level of tariffs.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    Quite. We were told the world would end if we didn’t join the Euro. There were no end of business leaders saying they’d pack their factories up and leave on the first shuttle train through the Chunnel. It was bollocks then and so we should be forgiven for being a tad skeptical at all the prophesies of doom retweeted from the latest bod to bewail the fact the people were pissed off with the EU.

    Our firm is snowed under with work. We’ve war gamed Brexit and it’s just not a biggy either way for us, not all plain sailing for some things, some things may actively be better if we got FTA’s with our growing worldwide markets.

    The world is not about to end no matter how much some fervently wish it.
    What business are you in?
    Engineering/manufacturing depends on your definition.

    Then one presumes you have been paying closer attention to the customs union than others? Can you share any substantive details of your wargaming?
    Deliveries from suppliers and our deliveries are not JIT. Days/weeks often of wiggle room ( we are not automotive), rules of origin not too much of an issue except at some extreme margins, 80%+ of our business not EU (and that’s the growing 80%), opportunities for expansion all lie in far flung places, and we may especially get benefit for one possibly very big thing from a better FTA with the USA. Not a lot of purely EU standards per se to deal with in what we do.
    Thank-you.

    So you are in the fortunate position of not being reliant on the EU, either in term of volume or in terms of JIT supply chains.

    Would there were more companies like yours, but whole industries (including our number 1 manufacturing export industry) are not in that position.
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