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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Eagles, did Obama block anyone?

    Suspect George W didn't have a Twitter feed, but, if he did, same question applies.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    "Bad news for Dems: Trump’s rating is rising where it counts in California"

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/Bad-news-for-Dems-Trump-s-rating-is-rising-12932492.php

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate
    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    OTOH, his rating is only about 3% down on 2016, and into is positive in several States where the Democrats are trying to retain Senate seats. The Republicans also don't seem likely to select loons in competitive races.
    I would be very surprised if the Republicans didn't increase their lead in the Senate. The only really likely Dem gain is Nevada, and there are three or four Senate races they look very shaky.

    (Although West Virginia is suddenly looking better for the Dems, given the decision of Don Blankenship - who lost the Republican Primary - to stand for Constitution Party there. If he syphons off 5-6% of the Republican vote, he'll pretty much ensure Manchin manages an unlikely hold.)
    Apparently WV has a "sore loser" law which prohibits a candidate who lost a primary for a party to run for a different party in the general. I don't know if this would prevent Blankenship from running as an independent though.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    rcs1000 said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    Quite. We were told the world would end if we didn’t join the Euro. There were no end of business leaders saying they’d pack their factories up and leave on the first shuttle train through the Chunnel. It was bollocks then and so we should be forgiven for being a tad skeptical at all the prophesies of doom retweeted from the latest bod to bewail the fact the people were pissed off with the EU.

    Our firm is snowed under with work. We’ve war gamed Brexit and it’s just not a biggy either way for us, not all plain sailing for some things, some things may actively be better if we got FTA’s with our growing worldwide markets.

    The world is not about to end no matter how much some fervently wish it.
    What business are you in?
    Engineering/manufacturing depends on your definition.

    Then one presumes you have been paying closer attention to the customs union than others? Can you share any substantive details of your wargaming?
    Deliveries from suppliers and our deliveries are not JIT. Days/weeks often of wiggle room ( we are not automotive), rules of origin not too much of an issue except at some extreme margins, 80%+ of our business not EU (and that’s the growing 80%), opportunities for expansion all lie in far flung places, and we may especially get benefit for one possibly very big thing from a better FTA with the USA. Not a lot of purely EU standards per se to deal with in what we do.
    What is the tariff your customers pay on your products into the US? In my businesses, the issue with the US is more the bureaucracy around importation rather than the level of tariffs.
    Yup. Tariff even in WTO is 2% or under. We do something really unsexy, which is great, because I think the less it can be explained to the man on the Clapham omnibus the less likely politicians are worldwide to stick their noses in and meddle with “protections for votes”. Cars, and food are too easy to appear in headlines. Just being cynical.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    edited May 2018
    MaxPB said:

    If the Dems don't take the House in November it will be a disaster for them. I don't know where they would go from there.

    The only candidate since WW2 to beat an incumbent president after only one term of his party in the White House, Ronald Reagan, did so in 1980 despite Carter's party holding both chambers of Congress in 1978 despite losses.

    Reagan, like Sanders, lost his party's primaries the previous cycle to the supposedly more 'electable' Gerald Ford who like Hillary went onto narrowly lose the general election
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Scott_P said:
    June they say? When Mike's on holiday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MaxPB said:

    If the Dems don't take the House in November it will be a disaster for them. I don't know where they would go from there.

    They could struggle to win the House according to this article:

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Trump-s-rising-popularity-is-bad-news-for-Dems-12935501.php
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Mr. Walker, honestly, I'd want to actually delve deeply into the figures to see if I thought they were approximately credible or just utter tosh. (The Lammy comments about 2% of Oxford students being black, when apparently only 1.8% of black kids get the necessary grades, is just another reminder of the importance of having adequate information before making judgements).

    I'm not willing to take prophecies of doom at face value. I just don't trust the political class, or the media, sufficiently. Rather sad, actually, but there we are.

    Mr. Jessop, I was thinking much the same.

    Quite. We were told the world would end if we didn’t join the Euro. There were no end of business leaders saying they’d pack their factories up and leave on the first shuttle train through the Chunnel. It was bollocks then and so we should be forgiven for being a tad skeptical at all the prophesies of doom retweeted from the latest bod to bewail the fact the people were pissed off with the EU.

    Our firm is snowed under with work. We’ve war gamed Brexit and it’s just not a biggy either way for us, not all plain sailing for some things, some things may actively be better if we got FTA’s with our growing worldwide markets.

    The world is not about to end no matter how much some fervently wish it.
    What business are you in?
    Engineering/manufacturing depends on your definition.

    Then one presumes you have been paying closer attention to the customs union than others? Can you share any substantive details of your wargaming?
    Deliveries from suppliers and our deliveries are not JIT. Days/weeks often of wiggle room ( we are not automotive), rules of origin not too much of an issue except at some extreme margins, 80%+ of our business not EU (and that’s the growing 80%), opportunities for expansion all lie in far flung places, and we may especially get benefit for one possibly very big thing from a better FTA with the USA. Not a lot of purely EU standards per se to deal with in what we do.
    Thank-you.

    So you are in the fortunate position of not being reliant on the EU, either in term of volume or in terms of JIT supply chains.

    Would there were more companies like yours, but whole industries (including our number 1 manufacturing export industry) are not in that position.
    I’m sure you may well be right. But fighting my little corner of the world........
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    Mr. Eagles, did Obama block anyone?

    Suspect George W didn't have a Twitter feed, but, if he did, same question applies.

    I read somewhere that neither Obama or Dubya blocked anyone except when the Secret Service intervened.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Fenman said:

    Actually Florida seems very vulnerable to me. Trump is stupid but not dumb. He's used his base there to curry favour and recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel which is guaranteed to appeal to the large community of Jewish retired people and stuffed relations with Cuba, guaranteed to appeal to Cuban Americans who are especially concentrated in the all important Dade County.

    I could, of course, be completely wrong :)

    I don't think that current Hispanics in Florida feel the same way about Cuba that Trump's generation did. There are few people with first hand knowledge of losing businesses and homes to Castro. Most of the people I know, and I admit that I only know well off people in Florida, grew up with even their parents memories of Cuba having receded into the background. They would almost all support more - rather than less - cordial relations with Cuba.
    They don't but the Cuban point is still an issue. The Democrats also have taken a more pro-Palestinian line than they have done in the past on the relocation of the embassy, presumably as their base shift leftwards. That might hurt them with the Jewish vote.

    One other point, more generally, is that the big internal migration story in the US has been the shift from high tax to low tax states.

    https://www.aier.org/article/americans-are-leaving-states-burdensome-governments

    That presumably does help the Republicans in the "declining" states but I suspect that, if the Democrats had played their cards right and gone more centrist, it could have helped them in the incoming states as many of these individuals might be open to a fiscally conservative but more socially liberal message while highlighting Trump's personality. Instead, with the Dems moving left, I suspect these voters will trend Republican for fear of their own states becoming like the states they fled.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Scott_P said:
    This ERG thing makes Momentum look like a book club - the power it has over the governance of Britain is remarkable. Who voted for it? What's its agenda? Who is it accountable to?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    It is not California Dems need to worry about to retake the House and Senate, it is the MidWest and Pennsylvania, the mountain states and some of the South.

    The fact Trump's rating has risen to 50% in Orange County, historically until 2016 one of the most Republican counties in the USA, is not that big of a deal when nationally his rating is nearer 40% and about the same level Bill Clinton had in 1994 when the Democrats were trounced, losing both the House and Senate

    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.
    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    OTOH, his rating is only about 3% down on 2016, and into is positive in several States where the Democrats are trying to retain Senate seats. The Republicans also don't seem likely to select loons in competitive races.
    I would be very surprised if the Republicans didn't increase their lead in the Senate. The only really likely Dem gain is Nevada, and there are three or four Senate races they look very shaky.

    (Although West Virginia is suddenly looking better for the Dems, given the decision of Don Blankenship - who lost the Republican Primary - to stand for Constitution Party there. If he syphons off 5-6% of the Republican vote, he'll pretty much ensure Manchin manages an unlikely hold.)
    Apparently WV has a "sore loser" law which prohibits a candidate who lost a primary for a party to run for a different party in the general. I don't know if this would prevent Blankenship from running as an independent though.
    It does, but Blankenship is challenging the law in court, on the basis that it is unconstitutional - and apparently similar laws have been struck down in other states. Whether he can get it overturned before close of nominations is another matter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    If the Dems don't take the House in November it will be a disaster for them. I don't know where they would go from there.

    They could struggle to win the House according to this article:

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Trump-s-rising-popularity-is-bad-news-for-Dems-12935501.php
    As I have already posted that article is a bit misleading, it focuses on Trump's rising approval ratings in Orange County, California but even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only won 1 of the 4 OC House seats the GOP currently hold
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    edited May 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenman said:

    Actually Florida seems very vulnerable to me. Trump is stupid but not dumb. He's used his base there to curry favour and recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel which is guaranteed to appeal to the large community of Jewish retired people and stuffed relations with Cuba, guaranteed to appeal to Cuban Americans who are especially concentrated in the all important Dade County.

    I could, of course, be completely wrong :)

    I don't think that current Hispanics in Florida feel the same way about Cuba that Trump's generation did. There are few people with first hand knowledge of losing businesses and homes to Castro. Most of the people I know, and I admit that I only know well off people in Florida, grew up with even their parents memories of Cuba having receded into the background. They would almost all support more - rather than less - cordial relations with Cuba.
    They don't but the Cuban point is still an issue. The Democrats also have taken a more pro-Palestinian line than they have done in the past on the relocation of the embassy, presumably as their base shift leftwards. That might hurt them with the Jewish vote.

    One other point, more generally, is that the big internal migration story in the US has been the shift from high tax to low tax states.

    https://www.aier.org/article/americans-are-leaving-states-burdensome-governments

    That presumably does help the Republicans in the "declining" states but I suspect that, if the Democrats had played their cards right and gone more centrist, it could have helped them in the incoming states as many of these individuals might be open to a fiscally conservative but more socially liberal message while highlighting Trump's personality. Instead, with the Dems moving left, I suspect these voters will trend Republican for fear of their own states becoming like the states they fled.
    It is fiscally populist, socially conservative voters in the rustbelt the Democrats need to win most, they are the voters who won Trump the rustbelt and who live in many swing districts
  • HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    MaxPB said:

    If the Dems don't take the House in November it will be a disaster for them. I don't know where they would go from there.

    They could struggle to win the House according to this article:

    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Trump-s-rising-popularity-is-bad-news-for-Dems-12935501.php
    As I have already posted that article is a bit misleading, it focuses on Trump's rising approval ratings in Orange County, California but even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only won 1 of the 4 OC House seats the GOP currently hold
    But those 4 OC seats are being specifically targeted by the Dems as one of their main ways to recapture the House. If they fail, it is a hurdle.

    https://voiceofoc.org/2018/01/four-county-gop-congressional-seats-targeted-in-2018/
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenman said:

    Actually Florida seems very vulnerable to me. Trump is stupid but not dumb. He's used his base there to curry favour and recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel which is guaranteed to appeal to the large community of Jewish retired people and stuffed relations with Cuba, guaranteed to appeal to Cuban Americans who are especially concentrated in the all important Dade County.

    I could, of course, be completely wrong :)

    I don't think that current Hispanics in Florida feel the same way about Cuba that Trump's generation did. There are few people with first hand knowledge of losing businesses and homes to Castro. Most of the people I know, and I admit that I only know well off people in Florida, grew up with even their parents memories of Cuba having receded into the background. They would almost all support more - rather than less - cordial relations with Cuba.
    They don't but the Cuban point is still an issue. The Democrats also have taken a more pro-Palestinian line than they have done in the past on the relocation of the embassy, presumably as their base shift leftwards. That might hurt them with the Jewish vote.

    One other point, more generally, is that the big internal migration story in the US has been the shift from high tax to low tax states.

    https://www.aier.org/article/americans-are-leaving-states-burdensome-governments

    That presumably does help the Republicans in the "declining" states but I suspect that, if the Democrats had played their cards right and gone more centrist, it could have helped them in the incoming states as many of these individuals might be open to a fiscally conservative but more socially liberal message while highlighting Trump's personality. Instead, with the Dems moving left, I suspect these voters will trend Republican for fear of their own states becoming like the states they fled.
    It is populist fiscally populust, socially conservative voters in the rustbelt the Democrats need to win most, they are the voters who won Trump the rustbelt and who live in many swing districts
    That is very true but I cannot see the Democrats doing it given their current direction.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.

    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

    The Democrats are ahead in 2/3 of the last Florida Senate polls.

    The Democratic incumbent also led both West Virginia Senate polls this month

    In Indiana the Republican candidate led the latest poll by 1%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2018


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2018
    In FL, the 2 with a Democrat lead are from Feb/March and April, the one with a Republican lead is in May. Or, 3 out of the last 5 polls had Republican leads.

    latest WV poll https://wpaintel.com/wv_senate_180511/
    So long as Blankenship is off the ballot, the Republicans should win WV (although I think they'll lose the third Congressional district, where Richard Ojeda looks likely to overturn a staggering Republican lead).

    Indiana and North Dakota should be easy Republican gains, and Missouri a likely one. Nevada will probably go the other way, and it's possible (although probably no more than a 30-35% chance) that the Dems flip Arizona.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It's good though, that with everything going on, politicians still have time for this sort of thing...

    Paul Hutcheon - @paulhutcheon: I understand 10 women in @scottishlabour have signed a letter complaining about the prospect of Asim Khan becoming a Westminster candidate. Mr Khan was branded “untruthful” by a judge
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, received a secret payment of at least $400,000 (£300,000) to fix talks between the Ukrainian president and President Trump, according to sources in Kiev close to those involved.

    The payment was arranged by intermediaries acting for Ukraine's leader, Petro Poroshenko, the sources said, though Mr Cohen was not registered as a representative of Ukraine as required by US law.

    The meeting at the White House was last June.

    Shortly after the Ukrainian president returned home, his country's anti-corruption agency stopped its investigation into Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44215656
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Scott_P said:

    @PickardJE: implication: they were always able to give NHS an extra £350m/week without leaving the EU? https://twitter.com/sebastianepayne/status/999327537493889024

    Hammond demonstrating his acute political antenna there.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.

    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

    The Democrats are ahead in 2/3 of the last Florida Senate polls.

    The Democratic incumbent also led both West Virginia Senate polls this month

    In Indiana the Republican candidate led the latest poll by 1%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2018


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2018
    In FL, the 2 with a Democrat lead are from Feb/March and April, the one with a Republican lead is in May. Or, 3 out of the last 5 polls had Republican leads.

    latest WV poll https://wpaintel.com/wv_senate_180511/
    So long as Blankenship is off the ballot, the Republicans should win WV (although I think they'll lose the third Congressional district, where Richard Ojeda looks likely to overturn a staggering Republican lead).

    Indiana and North Dakota should be easy Republican gains, and Missouri a likely one. Nevada will probably go the other way, and it's possible (although probably no more than a 30-35% chance) that the Dems flip Arizona.
    I would look for Montana as well, given the Dem Senator is in Trump's line of fire for opposing his VA secretary. Ohio might also be an outside chance of a Republican pick up.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/major-mortgage-benefit-being-axed-12585312

    Odd of the mirror to highlight a very sensible mortgage change:

    The big difference between the government loan and a mortgage is this: the government's loan won't have to be repaid each month.

    Instead the full amount is only due as soon as you die, sell your house or transfer ownership of it to a relative or friend.

    Why the **** were the government paying people's mortgage's for them? :angry:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenman said:

    Actually Florida seems very vulnerable to me. Trump is stupid but not dumb. He's used his base there to curry favour and recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel which is guaranteed to appeal to the large community of Jewish retired people and stuffed relations with Cuba, guaranteed to appeal to Cuban Americans who are especially concentrated in the all important Dade County.

    I could, of course, be completely wrong :)

    I don't think that current Hispanics in Florida feel the same way about Cuba that Trump's generation did. There are few people with first hand knowledge of losing businesses and homes to Castro. Most of the people I know, and I admit that I only know well off people in Florida, grew up with even their parents memories of Cuba having receded into the background. They would almost all support more - rather than less - cordial relations with Cuba.
    They don't but the Cuban point is still an issue. The Democrats also have taken a more pro-Palestinian line than they have done in the past on the relocation of the embassy, presumably as their base shift leftwards. That might hurt them with the Jewish vote.

    One other point, more generally, is that the big internal migration story in the US has been the shift from high tax to low tax states.

    https://www.aier.org/article/americans-are-leaving-states-burdensome-governments

    That presumably does help the Republicans in the "declining" states but I suspect that, if the Democrats had played their cards right and gone more centrist, it could have helped them in the incoming states as many of these individuals might be open to a fiscally conservative but more socially liberal message while highlighting Trump's personality. Instead, with the Dems moving left, I suspect these voters will trend Republican for fear of their own states becoming like the states they fled.
    I tend to be fairly sceptical of big demographics stories: in the last three decades there have been influential books that have promised permanent Republican and Democrat majorities.
    Although I think you are absolutely right that the Dems are falling into the trap the Republicans did during the Tea Party insurgency of electing extremists, and therefore ceding the centre.

    The big danger next cycle for the Republicans is Obamacare. It has brought health insurance to millions of Trump voters. Our Trump voting ex babysitter in Long Island wept when she told us her story of US healthcare (her son was beaten up and left with brain damage, and the bills bankrupted her and her husband). Taking Obamacare aware from these voters would be incredibly damaging.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    TGOHF said:
    Showdown. If both of those fall May might have no choice but to resign.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    This Grenfell Tower 'inquiry' is getting a little odd.

    Letting victims and the relatives of victims give evidence about the personal effects of the tragedy may provide good media, and may (or may not) help in the grieving process; however I fail to see how it will actually help get to the truth over what happened, or prevent any such incidents in the future.

    Or am I being too harsh?

    2 whole weeks of this. I mean, a morning I could have got. And am the only one who vaguely looked for a sick bucket on the 72 seconds of silence at the start?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I was going to write a betting post on that :) Ladbrokes have a Republican majority in the House at 5/4. The generic polls look to be shifting away from the Dems (the RCP average is at +3% on the generic ballot and is reducing) and the Dems are picking very liberal candidates in certain competitive seats. Plus nearly 70%, according to CBS, credit Trump with improving the economy and the feelgood indicators are pointing upwards.

    Trump's national rating is still abysmal, lower than both Obama's when his party lost the House in 2010 and Clinton's when his party lost both the House and Senate in 1994. Indeed on current polls the Democrats could even pick up Senate seats in Arizona and Tennessee and take the Senate.

    As for Orange County California even in 2006 and 2008 when the Democrats won the House they only gained 1 of the 4 OC House seats the Republicans currently hold
    In the latest polls, the Republicans are ahead in West Virginia, Indiana and Florida for the Senate, all Dem seats and not so far behind in Missouri, They seemed to have learnt from their lessons in Alabama and gone for sensible choices.

    The Democrats are ahead in 2/3 of the last Florida Senate polls.

    The Democratic incumbent also led both West Virginia Senate polls this month

    In Indiana the Republican candidate led the latest poll by 1%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2018


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2018

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2018
    In FL, the 2 with a Democrat lead are from Feb/March and April, the one with a Republican lead is in May. Or, 3 out of the last 5 polls had Republican leads.

    latest WV poll https://wpaintel.com/wv_senate_180511/
    So long as Blankenship is off the ballot, the Republicans should win WV (although I think they'll lose the third Congressional district, where Richard Ojeda looks likely to overturn a staggering Republican lead).

    Indiana and North Dakota should be easy Republican gains, and Missouri a likely one. Nevada will probably go the other way, and it's possible (although probably no more than a 30-35% chance) that the Dems flip Arizona.
    I would look for Montana as well, given the Dem Senator is in Trump's line of fire for opposing his VA secretary. Ohio might also be an outside chance of a Republican pick up.
    I forgot about Montana: yes, that's a high chance Republican pick-up too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Scott_P said:
    It very much depends on the wording and the government counter offer.

    Ken Clarke has said he’d be willing to vote for the right kind of customs partnership, for instance.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    TGOHF said:
    Showdown. If both of those fall May might have no choice but to resign.
    We're heading for a second referendum.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,920
    rpjs said:

    On the Dan Snow thing, I'm surprised he didn't tell his daughter about the Air Transport Auxiliary, the mainly female ferry pilot service that, inter alia, flew newly-built combat aircraft from the factories to the airfields. Could be quite hazardous: Amy Johnson was one of the ATA pilots who lost their lives while serving in it.

    Yes - see Spitfire Women by Giles Whittell. There were some interesting characters there - flying by day, partying by night.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Has this been reported?

    "ComRes
    ‏Verified account @ComRes
    7h7 hours ago

    @ComRes voting intention out today for @UKWeThePeople - Con 41(+1) Lab 41(+1) LD 7(-2) UKIP 3(-2) Grn 3(+1) SNP 3(-) O 2(+1) full results here: http://bit.ly/2IE89JG"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    TGOHF said:
    Showdown. If both of those fall May might have no choice but to resign.
    We're heading for a second referendum.
    You want us to be heading for a second referendum. That’s not the same thing.

    Do you lurk in the shadows waiting for me to post, by the way?

    You seem to respond to any of mine inside 60 seconds, seemingly out of nowhere.
  • TGOHF said:
    Showdown. If both of those fall May might have no choice but to resign.
    It actually makes a lot of sense. There is no way the Cabinet were going to decide when the key decision makers all have an eye on the next leadership contest. The key problem here is for Labour. If it abstains, the Remainers will raise hell. If it votes against, then there will be at least several who will rebel (Field, Hoey, Stringer etc) and a number of additional others (Flint etc) who may abstain.

    My guess is that the Govt probably has the numbers to do this - let's say the telegraph list of 15 Con MPs vote against the Govt (the Telegraph list from last year). That gets you to the Govt having 311 with the DUP. Add in a likely 3-5 Labour rebels, and you are at 314-6. Add in some likely Labour abstentions and you are there but tight.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392

    TGOHF said:
    Showdown. If both of those fall May might have no choice but to resign.
    Won't Tezzie just say "Nothing has changed" and carry on regardless?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    Which is what RCS and Nick Palmer predicted.
  • Scott_P said:
    It very much depends on the wording and the government counter offer.

    Ken Clarke has said he’d be willing to vote for the right kind of customs partnership, for instance.
    I think the days of fudged wording to keep one side on board has gone. The ERG have let it be known of the consequences and essentially said "it's us or them". She is effectively daring the pro-Remain MPs on her side to leave the Conservative party.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    Exactly. There is a plan for a second referendum.

    (How many seconds was that? :) )
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenman said:

    Actually Florida seems very vulnerable to me. Trump is stupid but not dumb. He's used his base there to curry favour and recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel which is guaranteed to appeal to the large community of Jewish retired people and stuffed relations with Cuba, guaranteed to appeal to Cuban Americans who are especially concentrated in the all important Dade County.

    I could, of course, be completely wrong :)

    I don't think that current Hispanics in Florida feel the same way about Cuba that Trump's generation did. There are few people with first hand knowledge of losing businesses and homes to Castro. Most of the people I know, and I admit that I only know well off people in Florida, grew up with even their parents memories of Cuba having receded into the background. They would almost all support more - rather than less - cordial relations with Cuba.
    They don't but the Cuban point is still an issue. The Democrats also have taken a more pro-Palestinian line than they have done in the past on the relocation of the embassy, presumably as their base shift leftwards. That might hurt them with the Jewish vote.

    One other point, more generally, is that the big internal migration story in the US has been the shift from high tax to low tax states.

    https://www.aier.org/article/americans-are-leaving-states-burdensome-governments

    That presumably does help the Republicans in the "declining" states but I suspect that, if the Democrats had played their cards right and gone more centrist, it could have helped them in the incoming states as many of these individuals might be open to a fiscally conservative but more socially liberal message while highlighting Trump's personality. Instead, with the Dems moving left, I suspect these voters will trend Republican for fear of their own states becoming like the states they fled.
    I tend to be fairly sceptical of big demographics stories: in the last three decades there have been influential books that have promised permanent Republican and Democrat majorities.
    Although I think you are absolutely right that the Dems are falling into the trap the Republicans did during the Tea Party insurgency of electing extremists, and therefore ceding the centre.

    The big danger next cycle for the Republicans is Obamacare. It has brought health insurance to millions of Trump voters. Our Trump voting ex babysitter in Long Island wept when she told us her story of US healthcare (her son was beaten up and left with brain damage, and the bills bankrupted her and her husband). Taking Obamacare aware from these voters would be incredibly damaging.
    I’m not American, but the Republicans do pick some very “brave” battles.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    Exactly. There is a plan for a second referendum.

    (How many seconds was that? :) )
    Mate, you can’t just confidently assert what you to want to happen as fact, and then hope you are vindicated !

    If you want to be credible you need a bit of engagement with others arguments, and that means making some concessions, accepting the nuances and evidencing what are you saying.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Scott_P said:
    Fascinating read.

    The man who is, perhaps, *most* responsible for Brexit, is disassociating himself from the project.

    Of course what smarty-knickers Cummings doesn’t/didn’t realise - and the same goes for his fellow travellers who populate this forum - is that a concretely planned and articulated Brexit would not have actually won the referendum.

    It was obvious that promising unicorns would end in a donkey with a fucking ice cream cone sellotaped to its crown.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    Which is what RCS and Nick Palmer predicted.
    I have also been saying the same thing.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    I agree. Let us try it and see if it is a roaring success or an almighty b*lls-up.

    It is a fifty-fifty sort of thing, isn't it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Fenman said:

    Actually Florida seems very vulnerable to me. Trump is stupid but not dumb. He's used his base there to curry favour and recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel which is guaranteed to appeal to the large community of Jewish retired people and stuffed relations with Cuba, guaranteed to appeal to Cuban Americans who are especially concentrated in the all important Dade County.

    I could, of course, be completely wrong :)

    I don't think that current Hispanics in Florida feel the same way about Cuba that Trump's generation did. There are few people with first hand knowledge of losing businesses and homes to Castro. Most of the people I know, and I admit that I only know well off people in Florida, grew up with even their parents memories of Cuba having receded into the background. They would almost all support more - rather than less - cordial relations with Cuba.
    They don't but the Cuban point is still an issue. The Democrats also have taken a more pro-Palestinian line than they have done in the past on the relocation of the embassy, presumably as their base shift leftwards. That might hurt them with the Jewish vote.

    One other point, more generally, is that the big internal migration story in the US has been the shift from high tax to low tax states.

    https://www.aier.org/article/americans-are-leaving-states-burdensome-governments

    That presumably does help the Republicans in the "declining" states but I suspect that, if the Democrats had played their cards right and gone more centrist, it could have helped them in the incoming states as many of these individuals might be open to a fiscally conservative but more socially liberal message while highlighting Trump's personality. Instead, with the Dems moving left, I suspect these voters will trend Republican for fear of their own states becoming like the states they fled.
    It is populist fiscally populust, socially conservative voters in the rustbelt the Democrats need to win most, they are the voters who won Trump the rustbelt and who live in many swing districts
    That is very true but I cannot see the Democrats doing it given their current direction.
    Sanders and Biden both lead current 2020 Democratic primary polls and would be more appealing to those voters than Hillary was certainly
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    I agree. Let us try it and see if it is a roaring success or an almighty b*lls-up.

    It is a fifty-fifty sort of thing, isn't it?
    Well, yeah. If Brexit is the utter catastrophe that many ardent Remainers say, we’ll be rejoining in short order anyway, so what’s there to lose by respecting the vote and being vindicated in the long term?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,260
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For the terminally thick here, Mogg's constituency does NOT include Bath.

    Yes. His constituency voted 52% Leave.

    Bath voted 68% Remain.
    No one knows how his constituency voted. According to the Commons Library there is only an estimate (51.6% Leave) for North East Somerset - but it is just an estimate.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/brexit-votes-by-constituency/
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:
    Fascinating read.

    The man who is, perhaps, *most* responsible for Brexit, is disassociating himself from the project.

    Of course what smarty-knickers Cummings doesn’t/didn’t realise - and the same goes for his fellow travellers who populate this forum - is that a concretely planned and articulated Brexit would not have actually won the referendum.

    It was obvious that promising unicorns would end in a donkey with a fucking ice cream cone sellotaped to its crown.
    You didn’t read it then. His critique is of the May/ Hammond clusterfuck since the referendum.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TGOHF said:
    In a recent poll of dwarves, six out of seven said they weren't Happy. As with the referendum, it seems that Dominic Cummings is part of that majority.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    Scott_P said:
    It very much depends on the wording and the government counter offer.

    Ken Clarke has said he’d be willing to vote for the right kind of customs partnership, for instance.
    I think the days of fudged wording to keep one side on board has gone. The ERG have let it be known of the consequences and essentially said "it's us or them". She is effectively daring the pro-Remain MPs on her side to leave the Conservative party.
    If I were to guess, i’d say an amendment on max fac by 2025 with customs union transition until then, together with ongoing investigation of options for enhanced customs partnership in the full trade talks, should do the trick for all sides.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Just to put the latest gloom and doom into perspective we have an economy with GDP of roughly £2trn and a trade deficit with the EU of roughly £80bn. In other words the current trading arrangements mean that we are losing 4% of GDP per year to the EU.

    4% a year. Not tenths of a percent in some hypothetical future but right now. 4%.

    What we are asking for, with characteristic generosity, is a FTA so that extremely unhappy state of affairs can continue, at least for a while. Those who think that the EU will not be laughing up their sleeves as we agree to such disadvantageous arrangements continuing are deluding themselves.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    ons I think the Republicans may do better than expected.

    I live in Los Angeles, but I'm not a conspiracy minded kind of guy.

    The FBI, lest we forget, announced the reopening of the Clinton email investigation just before the election. That's not the actions of a group that was working for Obama to undermine Trump.
    Where about? My wife's family lives by Pomona and I was there last month for the glorious weather!

    On the FBI stuff, it is more that it what his base is believing. The problem I always find with American media is you can take one piece of data and find completely opposing interpretations. The LA Times, though, is definitely not for Trump :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,838

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For the terminally thick here, Mogg's constituency does NOT include Bath.

    Yes. His constituency voted 52% Leave.

    Bath voted 68% Remain.
    No one knows how his constituency voted. According to the Commons Library there is only an estimate (51.6% Leave) for North East Somerset - but it is just an estimate.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/brexit-votes-by-constituency/
    Overwhemingly likely to have been 'leave'.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    Oh yes, food.

    I see that food prices in April were 1% LOWER than they were five year ago.

    Which compares with the 27% increase in the five years previously (2008-2013) and the 17% increase in the five years before that (2003-2008)

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7c8/mm23
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    I agree. Let us try it and see if it is a roaring success or an almighty b*lls-up.

    It is a fifty-fifty sort of thing, isn't it?
    Well, yeah. If Brexit is the utter catastrophe that many ardent Remainers say, we’ll be rejoining in short order anyway, so what’s there to lose by respecting the vote and being vindicated in the long term?

    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    I agree. Let us try it and see if it is a roaring success or an almighty b*lls-up.

    It is a fifty-fifty sort of thing, isn't it?
    Well, yeah. If Brexit is the utter catastrophe that many ardent Remainers say, we’ll be rejoining in short order anyway, so what’s there to lose by respecting the vote and being vindicated in the long term?
    Because we have a pretty good deal at the moment, at least in comparison with the deal we will get when we try to rejoin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    I'm so using this on a regular basis in my upcoming threads.

    Eurosceptics are full of shit and threats they don’t deliver, they say in No10, and on this at least they have a point.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Fenman said:

    DavidL said:



    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.

    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    I agree. Let us try it and see if it is a roaring success or an almighty b*lls-up.

    It is a fifty-fifty sort of thing, isn't it?
    Well, yeah. If Brexit is the utter catastrophe that many ardent Remainers say, we’ll be rejoining in short order anyway, so what’s there to lose by respecting the vote and being vindicated in the long term?

    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    I agree. Let us try it and see if it is a roaring success or an almighty b*lls-up.

    It is a fifty-fifty sort of thing, isn't it?
    Well, yeah. If Brexit is the utter catastrophe that many ardent Remainers say, we’ll be rejoining in short order anyway, so what’s there to lose by respecting the vote and being vindicated in the long term?
    Because we have a pretty good deal at the moment, at least in comparison with the deal we will get when we try to rejoin.
    But wouldn't we be so poor then that we would be net beneficiaries of EU funds ?

    :wink:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    Oh yes, food.

    I see that food prices in April were 1% LOWER than they were five year ago.

    Which compares with the 27% increase in the five years previously (2008-2013) and the 17% increase in the five years before that (2003-2008)

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7c8/mm23
    I am sure I read from our antipodean contributor earlier today that inflation was running out of control too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    I'm so using this on a regular basis in my upcoming threads.

    Eurosceptics are full of shit and threats they don’t deliver, they say in No10, and on this at least they have a point.

    He's not wrong. The ERG should have called time on May as soon as she dithered on the Customs Union amendment. With or without a candidate to put forwards, they had to show they weren't just all talk.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    DavidL said:

    Just to put the latest gloom and doom into perspective we have an economy with GDP of roughly £2trn and a trade deficit with the EU of roughly £80bn. In other words the current trading arrangements mean that we are losing 4% of GDP per year to the EU.

    4% a year. Not tenths of a percent in some hypothetical future but right now. 4%.

    What we are asking for, with characteristic generosity, is a FTA so that extremely unhappy state of affairs can continue, at least for a while. Those who think that the EU will not be laughing up their sleeves as we agree to such disadvantageous arrangements continuing are deluding themselves.

    The EU also knows that we have very little choice.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    MaxPB said:

    I'm so using this on a regular basis in my upcoming threads.

    Eurosceptics are full of shit and threats they don’t deliver, they say in No10, and on this at least they have a point.

    He's not wrong. The ERG should have called time on May as soon as she dithered on the Customs Union amendment. With or without a candidate to put forwards, they had to show they weren't just all talk.
    Why didn't John Redwood have a go? He's got form for it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fascinating read.

    The man who is, perhaps, *most* responsible for Brexit, is disassociating himself from the project.

    Of course what smarty-knickers Cummings doesn’t/didn’t realise - and the same goes for his fellow travellers who populate this forum - is that a concretely planned and articulated Brexit would not have actually won the referendum.

    It was obvious that promising unicorns would end in a donkey with a fucking ice cream cone sellotaped to its crown.
    You didn’t read it then. His critique is of the May/ Hammond clusterfuck since the referendum.
    I read it, and I understood it more than you seem to.

    But again all this was predicted. Brexit would be a shambles, and somehow it would be Remainers fault.

    (Any anyone who is daft enough to put their hand up to try to manage this - like Olly Robbins - magically becomes a Remainer).
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    edited May 2018

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    For the terminally thick here, Mogg's constituency does NOT include Bath.

    Yes. His constituency voted 52% Leave.

    Bath voted 68% Remain.
    No one knows how his constituency voted. According to the Commons Library there is only an estimate (51.6% Leave) for North East Somerset - but it is just an estimate.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/brexit-votes-by-constituency/
    Adonis's retweet and @Scottp 's notafuckingretweetalright were obviously utter bullshit, aka FAKE NEWS!!

    It needed pointing out. Nobody would expect Scott to own his mistake.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    Oh yes, food.

    I see that food prices in April were 1% LOWER than they were five year ago.

    Which compares with the 27% increase in the five years previously (2008-2013) and the 17% increase in the five years before that (2003-2008)

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7c8/mm23
    I am sure I read from our antipodean contributor earlier today that inflation was running out of control too.
    Petrol prices are certainly going up.

    And that tends to be a thing which hits Conservative voters more than most but as yet no effect in the polls.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    Retrospective straw man retard alert.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    We do have quite a long period to fix anything that's not right in the first iteration of Brexit, aka pretty much Eternity. Not of course that we want anything to go wrong, and anything that does will be damaging (or even very damaging), so it really is important that the negotiators get as little sharply wrong as possible. Nonetheless if it finishes up that, say, glassmaking gets a messed up deal it really can be revisited and quite quickly.

    It cuts both ways too though - the EU may find things where they've given away too much, and want to negotiate about.

    It seems to me that we ought to basically book timeslots for a yearly Brexit negotiation meeting for perhaps five years into the future. Some sort of transition protection fund should be established - both by the UK and the EU, and that fund be available to help businesses (or individuals) that have finished up being unreasonably hurt by the new arrangements. (Obviously it would have to be limited to the smaller sectors, so no energy, cars, finance etc)

    In my view the Brexit agreement is a bit like passing through the eye of a needle - we're going to have far too much government involvement in all sorts of things. Once we get out the other side the government can get back out of the way and let everyone else settle down and really sort the detail out.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    Fenman said:

    DavidL said:

    The interesting thing about that article is this: “Ministers have said they will publish the final departure deal with the EU, which is about 75% agreed, as well as a separate political declaration on the future relationship, in October.”

    There is a plan, and we’re almost there. We’re just going through the necessary political dramas of the final act.
    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starvation as all our imported food rots in the harbours, the end of our car industry, the closure of the City, despair (outside Ayrshire naturally) at having to live on turnips, etc etc.
    I agree. Let us try it and see if it is a roaring success or an almighty b*lls-up.

    It is a fifty-fifty sort of thing, isn't it?
    Well, yeah. If Brexit is the utter catastrophe that many ardent Remainers say, we’ll be rejoining in short order anyway, so what’s there to lose by respecting the vote and being vindicated in the long term?

    DavidL said:

    NO NO NO

    there's no plan. it will all fail, Boris, hard border, gazillions, death, destruction etc.
    Don't forget the mass starv
    I agree. Let us try it and see if it is a roaring success or an almighty b*lls-up.

    It is a fifty-fifty sort of thing, isn't it?
    Well, yeah. If Brexit is the utter catastrophe that many ardent Remainers say, we’ll be rejoining in short order anyway, so what’s there to lose by respecting the vote and being vindicated in the long term?
    Because we have a pretty good deal at the moment, at least in comparison with the deal we will get when we try to rejoin.
    Well, that argument was made and lost 2 years ago.

    If I were a diehard Remainer I’d be campaigning (or talking initially with the EU, at least) about how to get an attractive deal for the UK to rejoin back on the table again.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fascinating read.

    The man who is, perhaps, *most* responsible for Brexit, is disassociating himself from the project.

    Of course what smarty-knickers Cummings doesn’t/didn’t realise - and the same goes for his fellow travellers who populate this forum - is that a concretely planned and articulated Brexit would not have actually won the referendum.

    It was obvious that promising unicorns would end in a donkey with a fucking ice cream cone sellotaped to its crown.
    You didn’t read it then. His critique is of the May/ Hammond clusterfuck since the referendum.
    I read it, and I understood it more than you seem to.

    But again all this was predicted. Brexit would be a shambles, and somehow it would be Remainers fault.

    (Any anyone who is daft enough to put their hand up to try to manage this - like Olly Robbins - magically becomes a Remainer).
    Robbins hasn't just magically turned into a remainer, he's always been one. I also don't think anyone can argue that the establishment is completely against Brexit and are using whatever means they have to stifle or stop it.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    AndyJS said:

    Has this been reported?

    "ComRes
    ‏Verified account @ComRes
    7h7 hours ago

    @ComRes voting intention out today for @UKWeThePeople - Con 41(+1) Lab 41(+1) LD 7(-2) UKIP 3(-2) Grn 3(+1) SNP 3(-) O 2(+1) full results here: http://bit.ly/2IE89JG"

    Labour and Con level pegging ? That cannot be right!!!!!!!!!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    edited May 2018
    Suella didn't pay attention to what the EU has been saying since July 2016. The £39+ billion unlocks A deal. It doesn't get you the deal.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Omnium said:

    We do have quite a long period to fix anything that's not right in the first iteration of Brexit, aka pretty much Eternity. Not of course that we want anything to go wrong, and anything that does will be damaging (or even very damaging), so it really is important that the negotiators get as little sharply wrong as possible. Nonetheless if it finishes up that, say, glassmaking gets a messed up deal it really can be revisited and quite quickly.

    It cuts both ways too though - the EU may find things where they've given away too much, and want to negotiate about.

    It seems to me that we ought to basically book timeslots for a yearly Brexit negotiation meeting for perhaps five years into the future. Some sort of transition protection fund should be established - both by the UK and the EU, and that fund be available to help businesses (or individuals) that have finished up being unreasonably hurt by the new arrangements. (Obviously it would have to be limited to the smaller sectors, so no energy, cars, finance etc)

    In my view the Brexit agreement is a bit like passing through the eye of a needle - we're going to have far too much government involvement in all sorts of things. Once we get out the other side the government can get back out of the way and let everyone else settle down and really sort the detail out.

    Imagine a Brexit shaped shoe stomping on your face (at yearly intervals), forever.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    FF43 said:

    Stella didn't pay attention to what the EU has been saying since July 2016. The £39+ billion unlocks A deal. It doesn't get you the deal.
    I thought they were our legal obligations (to be paid over the next several decades)?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    twitter.com/MacMcKinseyIV/status/998679646282514432

    No doubt a parody account.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Who on earth is Cummings talking about here?

    This set of problems cannot be solved by listening to charlatans such as the overwhelming majority of economists and ‘trade experts’ who brand themselves pro-Brexit, live in parallel universes, and spin fantasies to you.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,260
    RobD said:

    twitter.com/MacMcKinseyIV/status/998679646282514432

    No doubt a parody account.
    Has to be.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fascinating read.

    The man who is, perhaps, *most* responsible for Brexit, is disassociating himself from the project.

    Of course what smarty-knickers Cummings doesn’t/didn’t realise - and the same goes for his fellow travellers who populate this forum - is that a concretely planned and articulated Brexit would not have actually won the referendum.

    It was obvious that promising unicorns would end in a donkey with a fucking ice cream cone sellotaped to its crown.
    You didn’t read it then. His critique is of the May/ Hammond clusterfuck since the referendum.
    I read it, and I understood it more than you seem to.

    But again all this was predicted. Brexit would be a shambles, and somehow it would be Remainers fault.

    (Any anyone who is daft enough to put their hand up to try to manage this - like Olly Robbins - magically becomes a Remainer).
    Robbins hasn't just magically turned into a remainer, he's always been one. I also don't think anyone can argue that the establishment is completely against Brexit and are using whatever means they have to stifle or stop it.
    Was he? I’d like to see evidence.
    All I know is that having dispensed with one lead negotiator for speaking truth to power, his replacement is now called a “Remainer” for wrestling with the complexities of Brexit.

    I don’t want to go all Lady Bracknell, but...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,260
    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fascinating read.

    The man who is, perhaps, *most* responsible for Brexit, is disassociating himself from the project.

    Of course what smarty-knickers Cummings doesn’t/didn’t realise - and the same goes for his fellow travellers who populate this forum - is that a concretely planned and articulated Brexit would not have actually won the referendum.

    It was obvious that promising unicorns would end in a donkey with a fucking ice cream cone sellotaped to its crown.
    You didn’t read it then. His critique is of the May/ Hammond clusterfuck since the referendum.
    I read it, and I understood it more than you seem to.

    But again all this was predicted. Brexit would be a shambles, and somehow it would be Remainers fault.

    (Any anyone who is daft enough to put their hand up to try to manage this - like Olly Robbins - magically becomes a Remainer).
    Robbins hasn't just magically turned into a remainer, he's always been one. I also don't think anyone can argue that the establishment is completely against Brexit and are using whatever means they have to stifle or stop it.
    You don't get more 'establishment' than JRM and BoJo.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    surby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has this been reported?

    "ComRes
    ‏Verified account @ComRes
    7h7 hours ago

    @ComRes voting intention out today for @UKWeThePeople - Con 41(+1) Lab 41(+1) LD 7(-2) UKIP 3(-2) Grn 3(+1) SNP 3(-) O 2(+1) full results here: http://bit.ly/2IE89JG"

    Labour and Con level pegging ? That cannot be right!!!!!!!!!
    That poll has respondents identifying themselves as Labour at 35% and Tories at 30%, might be a sampling issue.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Who on earth is Cummings talking about here?

    This set of problems cannot be solved by listening to charlatans such as the overwhelming majority of economists and ‘trade experts’ who brand themselves pro-Brexit, live in parallel universes, and spin fantasies to you.

    The entire Brexirati. Fake news-spouting Legatum spokespeople, often with mysterious links to Russian funding.

    Funny how Cummings, Hannan and Lilico - the nearest Brexit has to an intellectual core - are all turning against the Project.

    Like Marxism, the problem with Brexit is that it’s never been implemented properly. It’s funny that ideologues forget that implementation is as important as idea.
  • Scott_P said:
    It very much depends on the wording and the government counter offer.

    Ken Clarke has said he’d be willing to vote for the right kind of customs partnership, for instance.
    I think the days of fudged wording to keep one side on board has gone. The ERG have let it be known of the consequences and essentially said "it's us or them". She is effectively daring the pro-Remain MPs on her side to leave the Conservative party.
    If I were to guess, i’d say an amendment on max fac by 2025 with customs union transition until then, together with ongoing investigation of options for enhanced customs partnership in the full trade talks, should do the trick for all sides.
    I cannot see that. If there is an amendment like that, I can see the ERG rebelling it is too soft and then Labour opportunistically also voting against by claiming it is too hard and the Government gets defeated.

    One of the things I don't think the rest of the EU gets - and I will get flack for saying this - is they don't understand the differences of politics with the UK. In most other nations, the deals are done behind closed doors whilst everyone postures in public and a compromise is done which everyone accepts and then moves forwards. Because of the way party lists are selected, candidates generally have a stronger incentive to toe the line. And the voting systems usually encourage compromise.

    The UK system is not like that, it is more akin to a Zero-Sum game, you lose, I win. There is no compromising of manifestos with others (2010 the exception). MPs have more scope to voice their views. Breaking your promises is seen as beyond the pale as opposed to a necessary part of doing deals (ask the Lib Dems what happens). And in the background, you have the most aggressive press, on both sides, by a country mile which is more widely read than elsewhere in Europe and has far more influence.

    It was why the EU cocked up when dealing with Cameron. They thought they were doing him a favour by going through the theatre of showing they were listening to him, giving him a few concessions and then thinking they had done enough from their part and he could now deliver his side of the bargain. They just did not realise that would fly in a different political environment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, received a secret payment of at least $400,000 (£300,000) to fix talks between the Ukrainian president and President Trump, according to sources in Kiev close to those involved.

    The payment was arranged by intermediaries acting for Ukraine's leader, Petro Poroshenko, the sources said, though Mr Cohen was not registered as a representative of Ukraine as required by US law.

    The meeting at the White House was last June.

    Shortly after the Ukrainian president returned home, his country's anti-corruption agency stopped its investigation into Trump's former campaign manager, Paul Manafort.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44215656

    Interesting timing. How many journalists are going to be suggesting to their editors that they need to get themselves to Kiev this weekend? ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    rpjs said:

    We need a Senate, with just 25 wholly elected Senators from each country.

    I will oppose any House of Lords reform that renames it the Senate or calls its members Senators.

    We are *not* a republic. Peers, Member of the Lords.. anything but Senator.

    These things matter.
    I can’t believe I’m saying this but....I agree with you.
    And yet Northern Ireland had a Senate from 1920 to 1973 and senior Scottish judges are styled Senator.

    Last time I looked, both Scotland and Northern Ireland were parts of the monarchy known as the United Kingdom.

    And not to mention all the other British-derived monarchies around the world with Senates, starting with Canada (created by the British North America Act 1867 of the UK Parliament), Australia, etc etc.
    I'll be frank, I'm just not a fan of the name Senate. No logic to it, I'm just not a fan. I see no issue with any reformed House of Lords, even if entirely elected, still being called the House of Lords as a legacy issue. After all, the vast majority are not lords in the old fashioned sense, we just call them Baron or Baroness nevertheless, and I see no reason that could not continue.
  • MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fascinating read.

    The man who is, perhaps, *most* responsible for Brexit, is disassociating himself from the project.

    Of course what smarty-knickers Cummings doesn’t/didn’t realise - and the same goes for his fellow travellers who populate this forum - is that a concretely planned and articulated Brexit would not have actually won the referendum.

    It was obvious that promising unicorns would end in a donkey with a fucking ice cream cone sellotaped to its crown.
    You didn’t read it then. His critique is of the May/ Hammond clusterfuck since the referendum.
    I read it, and I understood it more than you seem to.

    But again all this was predicted. Brexit would be a shambles, and somehow it would be Remainers fault.

    (Any anyone who is daft enough to put their hand up to try to manage this - like Olly Robbins - magically becomes a Remainer).
    Robbins hasn't just magically turned into a remainer, he's always been one. I also don't think anyone can argue that the establishment is completely against Brexit and are using whatever means they have to stifle or stop it.
    Was he? I’d like to see evidence.
    All I know is that having dispensed with one lead negotiator for speaking truth to power, his replacement is now called a “Remainer” for wrestling with the complexities of Brexit.

    I don’t want to go all Lady Bracknell, but...
    He was at my old College. When he was there, he was involved in pro-EU clubs by all accounts. As an aside, our current principal is very for saying Brexit must be stopped.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fascinating read.

    The man who is, perhaps, *most* responsible for Brexit, is disassociating himself from the project.

    Of course what smarty-knickers Cummings doesn’t/didn’t realise - and the same goes for his fellow travellers who populate this forum - is that a concretely planned and articulated Brexit would not have actually won the referendum.

    It was obvious that promising unicorns would end in a donkey with a fucking ice cream cone sellotaped to its crown.
    You didn’t read it then. His critique is of the May/ Hammond clusterfuck since the referendum.
    I read it, and I understood it more than you seem to.

    But again all this was predicted. Brexit would be a shambles, and somehow it would be Remainers fault.

    (Any anyone who is daft enough to put their hand up to try to manage this - like Olly Robbins - magically becomes a Remainer).
    Robbins hasn't just magically turned into a remainer, he's always been one. I also don't think anyone can argue that the establishment is completely against Brexit and are using whatever means they have to stifle or stop it.
    You don't get more 'establishment' than JRM and BoJo.
    They're both posh / privileged but in a way they're not 'establishment' but rather mavericks.

    Boris, for example, only got the London mayoral nomination and then victory because he was seen as being a bit different from the standard Conservative and the Mogg is certainly more than a bit 'out there' with regard to his views.

    By comparison Cameron and Osborne are both posh and establishment while May and Hammond are affluent and establishment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    rpjs said:

    We need a Senate, with just 25 wholly elected Senators from each country.

    I will oppose any House of Lords reform that renames it the Senate or calls its members Senators.

    We are *not* a republic. Peers, Member of the Lords.. anything but Senator.

    These things matter.
    I can’t believe I’m saying this but....I agree with you.
    And yet Northern Ireland had a Senate from 1920 to 1973 and senior Scottish judges are styled Senator.

    Last time I looked, both Scotland and Northern Ireland were parts of the monarchy known as the United Kingdom.

    And not to mention all the other British-derived monarchies around the world with Senates, starting with Canada (created by the British North America Act 1867 of the UK Parliament), Australia, etc etc.
    I'll be frank, I'm just not a fan of the name Senate. No logic to it, I'm just not a fan. I see no issue with any reformed House of Lords, even if entirely elected, still being called the House of Lords as a legacy issue. After all, the vast majority are not lords in the old fashioned sense, we just call them Baron or Baroness nevertheless, and I see no reason that could not continue.
    I got that reference. ;)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    John Snow just interviewd an American who has been described as 'Trumps advisor on Iraq'. I thought he might soil himself. It's a while since I've seen an interviewer so devastatingly on top of his brief.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Roger said:

    John Snow just interviewd an American who has been described as 'Trumps advisor on Iraq'. I thought he might soil himself. It's a while since I've seen an interviewer so devastatingly on top of his brief.

    It's Trump's adviser on IRAN we need to be interested in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    rpjs said:

    We need a Senate, with just 25 wholly elected Senators from each country.

    I will oppose any House of Lords reform that renames it the Senate or calls its members Senators.

    We are *not* a republic. Peers, Member of the Lords.. anything but Senator.

    These things matter.
    I can’t believe I’m saying this but....I agree with you.
    And yet Northern Ireland had a Senate from 1920 to 1973 and senior Scottish judges are styled Senator.

    Last time I looked, both Scotland and Northern Ireland were parts of the monarchy known as the United Kingdom.

    And not to mention all the other British-derived monarchies around the world with Senates, starting with Canada (created by the British North America Act 1867 of the UK Parliament), Australia, etc etc.
    I'll be frank, I'm just not a fan of the name Senate. No logic to it, I'm just not a fan. I see no issue with any reformed House of Lords, even if entirely elected, still being called the House of Lords as a legacy issue. After all, the vast majority are not lords in the old fashioned sense, we just call them Baron or Baroness nevertheless, and I see no reason that could not continue.
    I got that reference. ;)
    I hate to disappoint you, but I didn't (knowingly) make a reference!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    John Snow just interviewd an American who has been described as 'Trumps advisor on Iraq'. I thought he might soil himself. It's a while since I've seen an interviewer so devastatingly on top of his brief.

    It's Trump's adviser on IRAN we need to be interested in.
    Sorry it was Iran obviously....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    NEW THREAD

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fascinating read.

    The man who is, perhaps, *most* responsible for Brexit, is disassociating himself from the project.

    Of course what smarty-knickers Cummings doesn’t/didn’t realise - and the same goes for his fellow travellers who populate this forum - is that a concretely planned and articulated Brexit would not have actually won the referendum.

    It was obvious that promising unicorns would end in a donkey with a fucking ice cream cone sellotaped to its crown.
    You didn’t read it then. His critique is of the May/ Hammond clusterfuck since the referendum.
    I read it, and I understood it more than you seem to.

    But again all this was predicted. Brexit would be a shambles, and somehow it would be Remainers fault.

    (Any anyone who is daft enough to put their hand up to try to manage this - like Olly Robbins - magically becomes a Remainer).
    Robbins hasn't just magically turned into a remainer, he's always been one. I also don't think anyone can argue that the establishment is completely against Brexit and are using whatever means they have to stifle or stop it.
    You don't get more 'establishment' than JRM and BoJo.
    They're both posh / privileged but in a way they're not 'establishment' but rather mavericks.

    Boris, for example, only got the London mayoral nomination and then victory because he was seen as being a bit different from the standard Conservative and the Mogg is certainly more than a bit 'out there' with regard to his views.

    By comparison Cameron and Osborne are both posh and establishment while May and Hammond are affluent and establishment.
    That’s an elegant bit of pin head dancing there pardner.
This discussion has been closed.