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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs union row

NEW: Government to announce tomorrow it will bring back all the Brexit Bills next month to put to the Commons – facing down the (a?) customs union rebels… rebels though are confident they will win. ERG wanted it, now we get considerable fireworks in June. 1922 told today

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Neither a customs partnership nor maxfac are "technically impossible", and those that say they are don't know what they're talking about.

    It is true they appear to have both been dismissed by the EU, but to what *extent* we do not know.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Thanks, Alastair!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    May runs the government on a need to know basis, and the Brexiteers don't need to know they've dug themselves into a hole until May is ready to tell them.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Leaves us out of pocket even after the NHS money.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Just to put that in perspective, it’s 1% of GDP.
    In order to expedite the free flow of goods.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    May’s preferred arrangement doesn’t seem that good either.

    https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/999308653894230022?s=21
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Just to put this to rest: the UK did not "cave in" on a divorce bill. It's actually about settling the tab - about £20bn of existing funding commitments to 2020-ish, and then a further (potential) contingent liability of up to £17bn over the decades to come, with a very small annual cost to service it, and we have also agreed the EIB rebate.

    The immediate "bill" is basically £20bn, which we'd have had to pay anyway had we stayed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    May’s preferred arrangement doesn’t seem that good either.

    https://twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/999308653894230022?s=21

    That seems fair. Why wouldn't the reciprocate, another punishment?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    Just to put that in perspective, it’s 1% of GDP.
    In order to expedite the free flow of goods.
    I remember being told Brexit would cut red tape and costs for business.

    Like the appeasers, a book entitled 'The Guilty Men' will be written about prominent Leavers.

    Like Iraq, Leave focussed on winning the war but forgot all about winning the peace.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited May 2018
    It is hard not to have *some* sympathy with Cummings.

    From memory, the smarter sections of PB at least was well informed enough to understand that Brexit would take at least a decade, and that EEA was the only decent avenue to “full Brexit”.

    We also knew that the timing of A50 was one of only two real negotiating levers (the other being money).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    The Government has generally done better than expected in Commons votes on Brexit business. The rebels tend to fall into line, and they're helped by some Labour MP's.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    On the main premise of the article, the author is overthinking it and being a bit too clever.

    I don't think Theresa May wants any sort of Laevinic defeat. First, he's taking Faisal Islam too much at his word - I'd trust the calculations of someone like James Forsyth far more on this, who has a far more accurate record - and I think May wants to win support for her amendment party-wide, and not use a defeat to browbeat her eurosceptics, which is something I suspect the author would also enjoy and is influencing his post.

    May wants to look like a leader, and she likes to win. She will want to find a form of words on which she can win a vote.

    So, I expect a fudge and an amendment with something for everyone.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    FPT: Met Police received a complaint into the conduct of John Bercow on 11th May.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5762061/Speaker-John-Bercow-reported-police-bullying-allegations.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    On the main premise of the article, the author is overthinking it and being a bit too clever.

    I don't think Theresa May wants any sort of Laevinic defeat. First, he's taking Faisal Islam too much at his word - I'd trust the calculations of someone like James Forsyth far more on this, who has a far more accurate record - and I think May wants to win support for her amendment party-wide, and not use a defeat to browbeat her eurosceptics, which is something I suspect the author would also enjoy and is influencing his post.

    May wants to look like a leader, and she likes to win. She will want to find a form of words on which she can win a vote.

    So, I expect a fudge and an amendment with something for everyone.

    Alastair wrote the thread before Faisal's tweets, I added the tweets to the thread to help contextualise Alastair's thread rather than go for a pic.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    ' So, for example, as late as September 2017, prominent Leavers were huffing and puffing about a Brexit bill of £40 billion. Yet £40 billion is pretty much what was agreed in December 2017, when Leavers reluctantly accepted that was needed to get a deal struck.

    In practice to date on the Brexit negotiations, that has meant caving in to the EU in time at each point, as that example demonstrates. '

    But doesn't the £40bn include £20bn for fees during the two year transition period ?

    Whatever the case its certainly not the £60bn minimum that the EU were talking about and PB Remainers were saying would be cheap at twice the price.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    On the main premise of the article, the author is overthinking it and being a bit too clever.

    I don't think Theresa May wants any sort of Laevinic defeat. First, he's taking Faisal Islam too much at his word - I'd trust the calculations of someone like James Forsyth far more on this, who has a far more accurate record - and I think May wants to win support for her amendment party-wide, and not use a defeat to browbeat her eurosceptics, which is something I suspect the author would also enjoy and is influencing his post.

    May wants to look like a leader, and she likes to win. She will want to find a form of words on which she can win a vote.

    So, I expect a fudge and an amendment with something for everyone.

    Alastair wrote the thread before Faisal's tweets, I added the tweets to the thread to help contextualise Alastair's thread rather than go for a pic.
    Fair enough - the way it was compiled looked like he'd tapped it out in 15 minutes in response to those tweets.

    Which would have been pretty impressive, in all honesty, but he is a quick and smart guy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    edited May 2018

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    Link?

    Edit: and it's less the working that goes into the figures, it's the assumptions that feed into the model. Far too many people think it's the former that's important, which is basically a case of basic modelling competence, whereas it's actually the latter that matters.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited May 2018

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    The figure does look excessive to me.

    But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.

    And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
    I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    Just to put that in perspective, it’s 1% of GDP.
    In order to expedite the free flow of goods.
    I remember being told Brexit would cut red tape and costs for business.

    Like the appeasers, a book entitled 'The Guilty Men' will be written about prominent Leavers.

    Like Iraq, Leave focussed on winning the war but forgot all about winning the peace.
    So the negotiation is going better than what Cameron and Osborne manged in their multiple rounds of failure.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    The figure does look excessive to me.

    But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.

    And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
    I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
    I'm happy to review the evidence if someone provides it.
  • There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Brexit Central: Loony Gain

    Indeed
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited May 2018

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    Anyone can provide workings for their figures but it doesn't mean that they're not bollox.

    This can apply to any sides of any financial discussions.
  • And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    He did, it sounded like he had done it on the back of a pack of cigarettes - "you have this many deals, costs x per deal etc."

    If it was that easy, you think it would have been sorted ages ago.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    Link?

    Edit: and it's less the working that goes into the figures, it's the assumptions that feed into the model. Far too many people think it's the former that's important, which is basically a case of basic modelling competence, whereas it's actually the latter that matters.
    We know that there were in 2016 almost 200m intra-EU consignments. So that is the base number. That has been audited by the NAO and is in a report on the customs declaration service.

    The question is, how much does it cost to complete a customs declaration? We’ve done some work ourselves. There have been at least two independent reports, one by the University of Nottingham business school and one by KPMG earlier in the year. The answer to that question is it’s between £20 and £55. You can’t average it out because of weighting but for ministers we’ve settled on £32.50 per customs declaration.

    So you’ve got 200m customs declarations at £32.50. That’s £6.5bn.

    [That’s on the UK side. There are declarations required on the EU side too] so you double that number, probably. That takes you then to £13bn.

    You’ve then got the question about what might be the requirements from the European Union on rules of origin. Is this cheese from Cheddar? It’s quite difficult to estimate that, but it would be reasonable to think that it is several billions pounds more.

    So you need to think about the highly streamlined customs arrangement costing businesses somewhere in the late teens of billions of pounds, somewhere between £17bn and £20bn. And the primary driver here is the fact that there are customs declarations.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/23/pmqs-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-gove-ministers-accused-of-putting-country-in-jeopardy-through-cabinet-infighting-politics-live?page=with:block-5b058515e4b0a1f834771793#block-5b058515e4b0a1f834771793

    16:05 entry.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    They've hired 3 A320s. Hardly 'Private Jets".

    Goodnight.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    On the header : Meek should paid, this is great.

    Penelopising is a wonderful word, by the way.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrew Sullivan's latest essay on the state of American politics. Usually worth reading.

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/05/obamas-legacy-has-already-been-destroyed.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    The figure does look excessive to me.

    But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.

    And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
    I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
    £20bn is around 5% of the value of all UK goods exports, only half of which currently go to the EU. So in round numbers he’s saying that 10% of the value of all exports to the EU is taken up with bureaucracy.

    Not in tariffs, but in admin fees alone.

    That’s why the numbers are clearly bollocks, they are an order of magnitude (or two) out.
  • On the header : Meek should paid, this is great.

    Penelopising is a wonderful word, by the way.

    Maybe when Brexit is parked on the side, we can add Pitstopping to the vocabulary.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2018

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    The workings consisted of making up a number that might sound credible on the face of it (£32 per transaction) then multiplying up. But once you get to 1% of GDP as a transaction fee for the free movement of goods, it should be clear that either your original number was wrong and/or your assumption of multiplying up was wrong. If the fee really was that large then transactions below a certain size wouldn't happen at all.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    Link?

    Edit: and it's less the working that goes into the figures, it's the assumptions that feed into the model. Far too many people think it's the former that's important, which is basically a case of basic modelling competence, whereas it's actually the latter that matters.
    We know that there were in 2016 almost 200m intra-EU consignments. So that is the base number. That has been audited by the NAO and is in a report on the customs declaration service.

    The question is, how much does it cost to complete a customs declaration? We’ve done some work ourselves. There have been at least two independent reports, one by the University of Nottingham business school and one by KPMG earlier in the year. The answer to that question is it’s between £20 and £55. You can’t average it out because of weighting but for ministers we’ve settled on £32.50 per customs declaration.

    So you’ve got 200m customs declarations at £32.50. That’s £6.5bn.

    [That’s on the UK side. There are declarations required on the EU side too] so you double that number, probably. That takes you then to £13bn.

    You’ve then got the question about what might be the requirements from the European Union on rules of origin. Is this cheese from Cheddar? It’s quite difficult to estimate that, but it would be reasonable to think that it is several billions pounds more.

    So you need to think about the highly streamlined customs arrangement costing businesses somewhere in the late teens of billions of pounds, somewhere between £17bn and £20bn. And the primary driver here is the fact that there are customs declarations.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/23/pmqs-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-gove-ministers-accused-of-putting-country-in-jeopardy-through-cabinet-infighting-politics-live?page=with:block-5b058515e4b0a1f834771793#block-5b058515e4b0a1f834771793

    16:05 entry.
    The man from Benson and Hedges speaks
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Sandpit said:

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
    For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).

    And if that results in yet another hung parliament (as the polls indicate), then what?

    Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    The workings consisted of making up a number that might sound credible on the face of it (£32 per transaction) then multiplying up. But once you get to 1% of GDP as a transaction fee for the free movement of goods, it should be clear that either your original number was wrong and/or your assumption of multiplying up was wrong. If the fee really was that large then transactions below a certain size wouldn't happen at all.
    This is true. But then you have to argue as well that max fac is going to reduce trade and there will be a utility loss to U.K. (and European) consumers.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Have any flogged the televisions and cookers like they did in 1977 ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Have any flogged the televisions and cookers like they did in 1977 ?
    I was prepared to sell the souls of my family and pimp out my girlfriend to get a ticket.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    The figure does look excessive to me.

    But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.

    And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
    I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
    you rather miss the point that you have a whole administration ( politicians of all shades plus civil servants ) who no longer have the confidence of the people they are meant to govern.

    Iraq, expenses, EU referendum, the accumulation of spin now means the governed no longer trust the governing and this will only get worse until truth comes back into the equation.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    The workings consisted of making up a number that might sound credible on the face of it (£32 per transaction) then multiplying up. But once you get to 1% of GDP as a transaction fee for the free movement of goods, it should be clear that either your original number was wrong and/or your assumption of multiplying up was wrong. If the fee really was that large then transactions below a certain size wouldn't happen at all.
    This is true. But then you have to argue as well that max fac is going to reduce trade and there will be a utility loss to U.K. (and European) consumers.
    Yes, that's quite possible. But it's not going to be in the order of £20bn. One would assume goods will be imported in bulk rather than fulfilling individual customers' orders.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
    For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
    LOL, do what our fans are doing and start driving three days early, or get together and charter a plane. We have the world’s best fans!

    Kiev looks fantastic by the way, I travelled back yesterday through the city and there’s a genuinely warm welcome awaiting the fans - the city, and country, see this as their biggest event since Euro 2012.

    I think only Monaco has more expensive hotels this weekend though!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I'm always confused as to who the "customs union rebels" are meant to be. Is it the Moggs or the Morgans ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    The figure does look excessive to me.

    But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.

    And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
    I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
    you rather miss the point that you have a whole administration ( politicians of all shades plus civil servants ) who no longer have the confidence of the people they are meant to govern.

    Iraq, expenses, EU referendum, the accumulation of spin now means the governed no longer trust the governing and this will only get worse until truth comes back into the equation.
    I find it a bit worrying that the head of HMRC either can't or didn't sense-check his £20bn number. I've long since given up on expecting [most] journalists to sense-check anything to do with numbers at all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited May 2018

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    The figure does look excessive to me.

    But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.

    And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
    I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
    Of course the Head of HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy - he's part of the Establishment after all. :wink:
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    The figure does look excessive to me.

    But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.

    And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
    I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
    you rather miss the point that you have a whole administration ( politicians of all shades plus civil servants ) who no longer have the confidence of the people they are meant to govern.

    Iraq, expenses, EU referendum, the accumulation of spin now means the governed no longer trust the governing and this will only get worse until truth comes back into the equation.
    I find it a bit worrying that the head of HMRC either can't or didn't sense-check his £20bn number. I've long since given up on expecting [most] journalists to sense-check anything to do with numbers at all.
    £32.50 equates to about 3 hours to fill in a form assuming a living wage. I fail to see how that stacks up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
    For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
    LOL, do what our fans are doing and start driving three days early, or get together and charter a plane. We have the world’s best fans!

    Kiev looks fantastic by the way, I travelled back yesterday through the city and there’s a genuinely warm welcome awaiting the fans - the city, and country, see this as their biggest event since Euro 2012.

    I think only Monaco has more expensive hotels this weekend though!
    There's a certain bonhomie as well.

    I said to a few fellow fans that I've had some unpleasant experiences in Eastern Europe because of my skin colour, I've already had 30 offers from strangers willing to be my bodyguards for the weekend.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited May 2018
    Ffs at we work ship stuff across the world every day. How do we do it? It’s miracle!! I have no idea how we find customers and send them stuff because without a customs union with the whole of Asia and Latin America we are clearly stuffed. Woe, wail, gnash teeth.

    Or maybe it’s a figure half plucked out of the air that’s pretty much bollocks, or being charitable bloody hard to estimate how it would pan out in fact in a new environment (maybe people would combine shipments for a start?). More project fear. More use of “might” or “could”. I might run off with the newly minted Duchess of Sussex tonight, I might land on Mars next Thursday, I might yodel in Romansch from Cardiff castle battlements wearing a toga. Or not.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Another interesting thread header Alastair, thanks.

    With the added bonus of Laevinic and penelopise. :smile:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2018

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    The figure does look excessive to me.

    But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.

    And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
    I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
    you rather miss the point that you have a whole administration ( politicians of all shades plus civil servants ) who no longer have the confidence of the people they are meant to govern.

    Iraq, expenses, EU referendum, the accumulation of spin now means the governed no longer trust the governing and this will only get worse until truth comes back into the equation.
    I find it a bit worrying that the head of HMRC either can't or didn't sense-check his £20bn number. I've long since given up on expecting [most] journalists to sense-check anything to do with numbers at all.
    £32.50 equates to about 3 hours to fill in a form assuming a living wage. I fail to see how that stacks up.
    He’s not talking about the cost of labour to businesses, he’s talking only about the admin fees charged by governments to process the import and export forms.

    As others have said it’s rather worrying that the head of HMRC can’t do a basic sense check on his numbers before delivering them to a HoC Committee.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm always confused as to who the "customs union rebels" are meant to be. Is it the Moggs or the Morgans ?

    Both.

    But I have a bet with a fellow Tory that Ken Clarke will never vote to bring down the government (and risk making Corbyn PM) over the customs union but JRM will.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
    For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
    Liverpool should get those 2,000 tickets.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    Sandpit said:

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
    For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
    Liverpool should get those 2,000 tickets.
    We asked but because of segregation issues we cannot have them.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    Sandpit said:

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    The figure does look excessive to me.

    But it wasn’t selectively leaked. It was given in public evidence by the Head of the HRMC to the DExEu select committee today.

    And for you to believe it was selectively briefed you’d have to assume that the Head of the HRMC is part of the Remainer conspiracy.
    I mean, maybe he is, but at some point Leacers have to deal with the inconvenient evidence on the table rather than assume bad faith of everyone.
    you rather miss the point that you have a whole administration ( politicians of all shades plus civil servants ) who no longer have the confidence of the people they are meant to govern.

    Iraq, expenses, EU referendum, the accumulation of spin now means the governed no longer trust the governing and this will only get worse until truth comes back into the equation.
    I find it a bit worrying that the head of HMRC either can't or didn't sense-check his £20bn number. I've long since given up on expecting [most] journalists to sense-check anything to do with numbers at all.
    £32.50 equates to about 3 hours to fill in a form assuming a living wage. I fail to see how that stacks up.
    He’s not talking about the cost of labour to businesses, he’s talking only about the admin fees charged by governments to process the import forms.
    the biggest input to processing a form is labour

    if a civil servant needs 3 hours to process a form they need their arse kicked. Most of it will be done on line by the importer or exporter and sent to HMRC where nobody will look at it in any detail.
  • There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).

    And if that results in yet another hung parliament (as the polls indicate), then what?

    Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
    This is TM we are talking about :)

    Having said that, she may see it as the Gordian Knot approach. If she does get a majority, she can push her solution through, if she does not, well not her responsibility any more.

    I disagree on the Remain ex-Tories, at least partly. I think Remain is actually made up of two camps, hardline Remainers (who won't go back) and "Reluctant" Remainers who voted for Remain as they feared the economic disruption of Brexit. The second category is whom she will target and say a Labour Govt will be far worse than what you get under ou proposal.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
    For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
    Liverpool should get those 2,000 tickets.
    We asked but because of segregation issues we cannot have them.
    So who will?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited May 2018

    Sandpit said:

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
    For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
    Liverpool should get those 2,000 tickets.
    We asked but because of segregation issues we cannot have them.
    So who will?
    Real Madrid fans or those seats will be empty.

    Though if Istanbul and Athens are any guide, Liverpool fans will acquire those tickets.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
    For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
    LOL, do what our fans are doing and start driving three days early, or get together and charter a plane. We have the world’s best fans!

    Kiev looks fantastic by the way, I travelled back yesterday through the city and there’s a genuinely warm welcome awaiting the fans - the city, and country, see this as their biggest event since Euro 2012.

    I think only Monaco has more expensive hotels this weekend though!
    There's a certain bonhomie as well.

    I said to a few fellow fans that I've had some unpleasant experiences in Eastern Europe because of my skin colour, I've already had 30 offers from strangers willing to be my bodyguards for the weekend.
    Absolutely. It’s been a few years since I went to a European away game, but even in the bad old days the vast majority of people on all sides just wanted to watch the match and were accepting of each other no matter the result.

    Have a great trip, you lucky b******!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    A private jet charter comparison company has revealed Liverpool FC fans have spent almost half a million pounds on hiring exclusive planes to get to Kiev.

    The news about how much Reds’ supporters have shelled out on travelling to the Champions League final by private airline comes as many begin an inventive journey to get to the Ukrainian capital.


    The Anfield faithful are known to be doing everything from driving all the way to Eastern Europe to boarding planes and trains all over the continent to get to the match against Real Madrid.

    Victor, who run a private plane marketplace, outlined the fact they have “seen requests for private jets increase by 2354% this year compared to last year’s final”.

    A spokesman for the company said: “To add to this, there is a group of 540 Liverpool fans who have hired three private jets to fly them to the city, totalling £411,000.”

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-fc-fans-spend-almost-14696126

    Awesome! :applause:
    For the dedication of getting to Kyiv we deserve to win Ol' Big Ears, Real Madrid have returned 2,000 tickets because Kyiv is too difficult for their fans to get to.
    Liverpool should get those 2,000 tickets.
    We asked but because of segregation issues we cannot have them.
    So who will?
    Real Madrid fans or those seats will be empty.

    Though if Istanbul and Athens are any guide, Liverpool fans will acquire those tickets.
    More likely they’ll be sold to the locals in Kiev, and from there on to Brits for an extra zero on the face value.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    Link?



    16:05 entry.
    Thanks. So it all hinges on assumptions about customs declarations, and guessing on EU ROO.

    Two initial things I'd say to that: firstly, the whole point of MaxFac is to make customs declarations simple, slick, efficient and as automated as possible, so I wouldn't (basically) split the difference between two independent reports that have benchmarked other countries. Second, I don't see that filling out the same information twice, on the EU side, would double the cost, because the two forms should be aligned and all the info already gathered, otherwise it wouldn't be MaxFac. Third, I'd expect the ROO questions to be included within the customs declaration, so one has to be careful of double counting here.

    Cheese from Cheddar is a bit of a silly one. Dairy produce has to be fresh, and is rarely merged with other cheeses from around the world, so checking it's 100% certified/declared cheddar should be fairly easy, and businesses could register for that certification which could then be EU recognised. Maybe there'd be an annual registration cost.

    I'd put costs at something like £5-£15 per declaration for MaxFac, including ROO questions but more costly for the more complex ones, and about 25% extra on top for the "other side" (be it EU or UK) to tally, and about £1-£2bn per year to HMG to run the customs system.

    So, splitting the difference, I get £3.5bn-£4.5bn per year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    The workings consisted of making up a number that might sound credible on the face of it (£32 per transaction) then multiplying up. But once you get to 1% of GDP as a transaction fee for the free movement of goods, it should be clear that either your original number was wrong and/or your assumption of multiplying up was wrong. If the fee really was that large then transactions below a certain size wouldn't happen at all.
    That too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm always confused as to who the "customs union rebels" are meant to be. Is it the Moggs or the Morgans ?

    As of now it's the Morgans.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    And it's intended to, because it's been selectively briefed and leaked to stop MaxFac.

    It's also bollocks. A figure of £2-4bn a year would be credible, not £20bn.

    Why do Remainers always hugely overplay their hand?

    It only means they don't win anyone over.
    He provided the workings for his figures.
    The workings consisted of making up a number that might sound credible on the face of it (£32 per transaction) then multiplying up. But once you get to 1% of GDP as a transaction fee for the free movement of goods, it should be clear that either your original number was wrong and/or your assumption of multiplying up was wrong. If the fee really was that large then transactions below a certain size wouldn't happen at all.
    This is true. But then you have to argue as well that max fac is going to reduce trade and there will be a utility loss to U.K. (and European) consumers.
    It will, a bit. So does the fact we are outside the Euro and Schengen. But membership of both of those wouldn't lead to UK growth skyrocketing either.

    They are political choices we have taken in order to have greater control in our parliament here (as some might say) and less influence in the EU (as others might say).

    But they are tangible and meaningful either which way.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Looking more and more like no deal then.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Sandpit said:

    Looking more and more like no deal then.
    AKA the day Project Fear became Project Reality.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Re the Thread

    Overly verbose IMHO at 1153 words.. A little more precis would be advantageous.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    How does he know that, though?

    The trouble with Ivan Rogers is that Cameron listened to him on what the EU would "always refuse" and would be "impossible" forever, and so massively constrained his renegotiation.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Re the Thread

    Overly verbose IMHO at 1153 words.. A little more precis would be advantageous.

    Point noted.

    On the other hand, it’s the first time a thread of mine has been retweeted by the official account of a political party.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Re the Thread

    Overly verbose IMHO at 1153 words.. A little more precis would be advantageous.

    Point noted.

    On the other hand, it’s the first time a thread of mine has been retweeted by the official account of a political party.
    Do the Loonies have an account?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    Re the Thread

    Overly verbose IMHO at 1153 words.. A little more precis would be advantageous.

    Point noted.

    On the other hand, it’s the first time a thread of mine has been retweeted by the official account of a political party.
    Do the Loonies have an account?
    https://twitter.com/Official_MRLP/with_replies
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837

    There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).

    And if that results in yet another hung parliament (as the polls indicate), then what?

    Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
    This is TM we are talking about :)

    Having said that, she may see it as the Gordian Knot approach. If she does get a majority, she can push her solution through, if she does not, well not her responsibility any more.

    I disagree on the Remain ex-Tories, at least partly. I think Remain is actually made up of two camps, hardline Remainers (who won't go back) and "Reluctant" Remainers who voted for Remain as they feared the economic disruption of Brexit. The second category is whom she will target and say a Labour Govt will be far worse than what you get under ou proposal.
    Your scenario raises an interesting question re FTPA though. Suppose, anxious not to answer Labour's own Brexit riddle, this time Corbyn were to say "No. We just had an election on this very subject, get on with it or resign? "
    Which other Party might support the Tories in repealing FTPA? Not the DUP. They would be highly fortunate to hit the sweet spot again in any new poll. LD's are skint. SNP. Doubt it, given volatility in Scotland. They are still the largest Party, and could not guarantee remaining so.
    She could end up calling an Election that never happens.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    FPT (repost - sorry, but stomping on my face was involved)

    Omnium said:

    We do have quite a long period to fix anything that's not right in the first iteration of Brexit, aka pretty much Eternity. Not of course that we want anything to go wrong, and anything that does will be damaging (or even very damaging), so it really is important that the negotiators get as little sharply wrong as possible. Nonetheless if it finishes up that, say, glassmaking gets a messed up deal it really can be revisited and quite quickly.

    It cuts both ways too though - the EU may find things where they've given away too much, and want to negotiate about.

    It seems to me that we ought to basically book timeslots for a yearly Brexit negotiation meeting for perhaps five years into the future. Some sort of transition protection fund should be established - both by the UK and the EU, and that fund be available to help businesses (or individuals) that have finished up being unreasonably hurt by the new arrangements. (Obviously it would have to be limited to the smaller sectors, so no energy, cars, finance etc)

    In my view the Brexit agreement is a bit like passing through the eye of a needle - we're going to have far too much government involvement in all sorts of things. Once we get out the other side the government can get back out of the way and let everyone else settle down and really sort the detail out.

    Imagine a Brexit shaped shoe stomping on your face (at yearly intervals), forever.
    Thanks for that. It's half empty or it's half full. You'd appear to have gone down the minority 'completely empty' route. Cheer up though, your all-gloom conclusion is certainly likely to bettered.

    I'd offer - 'Imagine opportunity arriving, every day, forever'. Now apart from in the context of responding to your post I'd have to take myself off and get shot should I say such a thing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    dixiedean said:

    There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).

    And if that results in yet another hung parliament (as the polls indicate), then what?

    Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
    This is TM we are talking about :)

    Having said that, she may see it as the Gordian Knot approach. If she does get a majority, she can push her solution through, if she does not, well not her responsibility any more.

    I disagree on the Remain ex-Tories, at least partly. I think Remain is actually made up of two camps, hardline Remainers (who won't go back) and "Reluctant" Remainers who voted for Remain as they feared the economic disruption of Brexit. The second category is whom she will target and say a Labour Govt will be far worse than what you get under ou proposal.
    Your scenario raises an interesting question re FTPA though. Suppose, anxious not to answer Labour's own Brexit riddle, this time Corbyn were to say "No. We just had an election on this very subject, get on with it or resign? "
    Which other Party might support the Tories in repealing FTPA? Not the DUP. They would be highly fortunate to hit the sweet spot again in any new poll. LD's are skint. SNP. Doubt it, given volatility in Scotland. They are still the largest Party, and could not guarantee remaining so.
    She could end up calling an Election that never happens.
    She needs a 2/3 majority in the HoC to call an election so if Labour don't support it, it ain't happening.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    dixiedean said:

    There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).

    And if that results in yet another hung parliament (as the polls indicate), then what?

    Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
    This is TM we are talking about :)

    Having said that, she may see it as the Gordian Knot approach. If she does get a majority, she can push her solution through, if she does not, well not her responsibility any more.

    I disagree on the Remain ex-Tories, at least partly. I think Remain is actually made up of two camps, hardline Remainers (who won't go back) and "Reluctant" Remainers who voted for Remain as they feared the economic disruption of Brexit. The second category is whom she will target and say a Labour Govt will be far worse than what you get under ou proposal.
    Your scenario raises an interesting question re FTPA though. Suppose, anxious not to answer Labour's own Brexit riddle, this time Corbyn were to say "No. We just had an election on this very subject, get on with it or resign? "
    Which other Party might support the Tories in repealing FTPA? Not the DUP. They would be highly fortunate to hit the sweet spot again in any new poll. LD's are skint. SNP. Doubt it, given volatility in Scotland. They are still the largest Party, and could not guarantee remaining so.
    She could end up calling an Election that never happens.
    I agree that May might have trouble summoning a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament if Labour want to take a "it's your mess, you stay and fix it" attitude, but she can always call and whip a vote of no confidence against herself. That would require Corbyn being offered the opportunity of forming a government of course.
  • dixiedean said:

    There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).

    And if that results in yet another hung parliament (as the polls indicate), then what?

    Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
    This is TM we are talking about :)

    Having said that, she may see it as the Gordian Knot approach. If she does get a majority, she can push her solution through, if she does not, well not her responsibility any more.

    I disagree on the Remain ex-Tories, at least partly. I think Remain is actually made up of two camps, hardline Remainers (who won't go back) and "Reluctant" Remainers who voted for Remain as they feared the economic disruption of Brexit. The second category is whom she will target and say a Labour Govt will be far worse than what you get under ou proposal.
    Your scenario raises an interesting question re FTPA though. Suppose, anxious not to answer Labour's own Brexit riddle, this time Corbyn were to say "No. We just had an election on this very subject, get on with it or resign? "
    Which other Party might support the Tories in repealing FTPA? Not the DUP. They would be highly fortunate to hit the sweet spot again in any new poll. LD's are skint. SNP. Doubt it, given volatility in Scotland. They are still the largest Party, and could not guarantee remaining so.
    She could end up calling an Election that never happens.
    I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.

    Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LDs.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    rpjs said:

    dixiedean said:

    There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).

    And if that results in yet another hung parliament (as the polls indicate), then what?

    Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
    This is TM we are talking about :)

    Having said that, she may see it as the Gordian Knot approach. If she does get a majority, she can push her solution through, if she does not, well not her responsibility any more.

    I disagree on the Remain ex-Tories, at least partly. I think Remain is actually made up of two camps, hardline Remainers (who won't go back) and "Reluctant" Remainers who voted for Remain as they feared the economic disruption of Brexit. The second category is whom she will target and say a Labour Govt will be far worse than what you get under ou proposal.
    Your scenario raises an interesting question re FTPA though. Suppose, anxious not to answer Labour's own Brexit riddle, this time Corbyn were to say "No. We just had an election on this very subject, get on with it or resign? "
    Which other Party might support the Tories in repealing FTPA? Not the DUP. They would be highly fortunate to hit the sweet spot again in any new poll. LD's are skint. SNP. Doubt it, given volatility in Scotland. They are still the largest Party, and could not guarantee remaining so.
    She could end up calling an Election that never happens.
    I agree that May might have trouble summoning a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament if Labour want to take a "it's your mess, you stay and fix it" attitude, but she can always call and whip a vote of no confidence against herself. That would require Corbyn being offered the opportunity of forming a government of course.
    It's just not going to happen is it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Re the Thread

    Overly verbose IMHO at 1153 words.. A little more precis would be advantageous.

    Point noted.

    On the other hand, it’s the first time a thread of mine has been retweeted by the official account of a political party.
    Do the Loonies have an account?
    https://twitter.com/Official_MRLP/with_replies
    Not to be confused with MLP_officiel.
  • HHemmeligHHemmelig Posts: 617
    rpjs said:



    I agree that May might have trouble summoning a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament if Labour want to take a "it's your mess, you stay and fix it" attitude, but she can always call and whip a vote of no confidence against herself. That would require Corbyn being offered the opportunity of forming a government of course.

    People on here do talk a pile of horse dung sometimes, totally devoid of common sense. "You MUST vote Conservative to keep that dangerous terrorist sympathising Commie Corbyn out of government...though yes we did ourselves give him the opportunity of forming a government." And we are so convinced of our own competence that I whipped my MPs to support a vote of no confidence in their own government. Oh yes that sounds the perfect route to a landslide Tory victory.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    dixiedean said:

    There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).

    And if that results in yet another hung parliament (as the polls indicate), then what?

    Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
    This is TM we are talking about :)

    Having said that, she may see it as the Gordian Knot approach. If she does get a majority, she can push her solution through, if she does not, well not her responsibility any more.

    I disagree on the Remain ex-Tories, at least partly. I think Remain is actually made up of two camps, hardline Remainers (who won't go back) and "Reluctant" Remainers who voted for Remain as they feared the economic disruption of Brexit. The second category is whom she will target and say a Labour Govt will be far worse than what you get under ou proposal.

    She could end up calling an Election that never happens.
    I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.

    Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LDs.
    But the Parliamentary arithmetic has changed since April 2017 and gives Corbyn a stronger claim to be given the chance to form a minority Government should May effectively decide to give up. Prima Facie he is in a stronger position than Campbell - Bannerman was back in December 1905.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Cummings makes some good points, IMHO.

    The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688
    HHemmelig said:

    rpjs said:



    I agree that May might have trouble summoning a 2/3 majority to dissolve Parliament if Labour want to take a "it's your mess, you stay and fix it" attitude, but she can always call and whip a vote of no confidence against herself. That would require Corbyn being offered the opportunity of forming a government of course.

    People on here do talk a pile of horse dung sometimes, totally devoid of common sense. "You MUST vote Conservative to keep that dangerous terrorist sympathising Commie Corbyn out of government...though yes we did ourselves give him the opportunity of forming a government." And we are so convinced of our own competence that I whipped my MPs to support a vote of no confidence in their own government. Oh yes that sounds the perfect route to a landslide Tory victory.
    Corbyn has never had the opportunity to form a Government. I hope he never does.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Cummings makes some good points, IMHO.

    The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.

    What does investing in "no deal" look like in Northern Ireland?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Cummings makes some good points, IMHO.

    The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.

    Yeah, they shouldn't have listened to this fukwit


    Liam Fox: EU trade deal after Brexit should be 'easiest in history' to get

    International trade secretary tells Today programme the government is not making contingency plans for leaving without deal

  • justin124 said:

    dixiedean said:

    There is, of course, another option. She thinks she can win a General Election and losing this vote would give her prime cause to call for an election on the grounds that the people need to decide things i.e.an implicit second referendum without p1ssing people off in the country.

    Govt goes to the country with its defeated Bill as its manifesto. Labour then forced to come out and say where it stands with no repeat of the successful 2017 fudging. Wealthy ex-Tory remainers given a choice of return to the fold or see Labour get in and your wealth get destroyed in new taxes and falling property prices (interesting to see how many of the LD seats they won would go back to Blue).

    And if that results in yet another hung parliament (as the polls indicate), then what?

    Also, expecting Remain ex-Tories to switch back from the Lib Dem’s is a forlorn hope this side of March 2019.
    This is TM we are talking about :)

    Having said that, she may see it as the Gordian Knot approach. If she does get a majority, she can push her solution through, if she does not, well not her responsibility any more.

    I disagree on the Remain ex-Tories, at least partly. I think Remain is actually made up of two camps, hardline Remainers (who won't go back) and "Reluctant" Remainers who voted for Remain as they feared the economic disruption of Brexit. The second category is whom she will target and say a Labour Govt will be far worse than what you get under ou proposal.

    She could end up calling an Election that never happens.
    I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.

    Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LDs.
    But the Parliamentary arithmetic has changed since April 2017 and gives Corbyn a stronger claim to be given the chance to form a minority Government should May effectively decide to give up. Prima Facie he is in a stronger position than Campbell - Bannerman was back in December 1905.
    But he would not be able to get anything done. And he would be left with being responsible for putting forward his own Brexit policy for Government. Worst case scenario he stumbles on to 2022 with the Conservatives happy to let Labour take the heat and then gets smashed. Far better to go for broke now than face a possible four years of grind.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Leaves us out of pocket even after the NHS money.
    Does HMRC *ever* brief Cabinet?

    I suspect not. They will send reports to the Treasury which will be circulated to the relevant committee members and/or full Cabinet.

    As always with these statements ut’s Someone sh1t stirring
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Cummings makes some good points, IMHO.

    The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.

    Something that I have advocated now for 22 months. No deal WTO Brexit is the default if no agreement is achived. Bearing in mind that our government cannot agree amongst themselves, let alone convince the EU27, it has to be a possibility.

    I have prepared my own finances and situation accordingly.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Cummings makes some good points, IMHO.

    The most inexcusable thing, in my view, has been a failure to spend/invest in "no deal" and our WTO infrastructure.

    What does investing in "no deal" look like in Northern Ireland?
    Northern Ireland is a red herring, as Cummings points out.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    Kitchen Cabinet:

    I think Labour would have to do it because (a) JC would not be able to resist and thinks it will be 2017 all over again and (b) turning down the chance of an election would be a catastrophic blow to his Momentum Guard who think Paradise is around the corner.

    Agreed about the other parties, although the SNP may prefer to take a risk and see if it can nab back some of the seats it lost.Would be awful for the LD's.

    Dixiedean:

    Needs to be factored in though when considering an Autumn election odds. It is not entirely within Mrs May's gift. At least not straightforward. The 2017 election was called with an extra 2 weeks' notice in case Labour opposed it, to allow for a repeal of FTPA. And that was when there was a Conservative majority to do it.
This discussion has been closed.