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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why betting on the Republicans in the House mid-terms may be t

SystemSystem Posts: 11,007
edited May 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why betting on the Republicans in the House mid-terms may be the right strategy

The consensual view on the November mid-terms has been that the Democrats are favourites to win back the House in November.It is almost a given that a party that holds the White House loses seats – Clinton and Bush picked up a few seats in 1998 and 2002 but under unusual circumstances (pushback against Impeachment for Clinton, the aftermath of 9/11 for Bush). Trump disgust is seen as a powerful force for Democrats to turn out and independents to switch sides. The Mueller probe casts a shadow over the Presidency. Moreover, the Maths seem to favour the Democrats. Democrats have to win 23 seats, fewer than the Democrats won in 2006 and 2008 and the Republicans in 2010. There are 23 seats where Clinton won in 2016 but where there are Republican House members. Pennsylvania’s court ruling helps the Democrats in several seats. Special elections in Arizona and Pennsylvania (Conor Lamb) show a swing to the Dems.

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  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,916
    edited May 2018
    First!

    Very interesting. Thanks, Ian.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Minus the US Presidentials that's about that success rate I had as well, funnily enough.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    A new thread just as the football's about to kick off?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    JosiasJessop said:

    First!

    Very interesting. Thanks, Ian.

    So were you uttering a terminological inexactitude on the last thread, Josias? :smile:

    BTW, that was a very short thread.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,226
    FPT a thoughtful post worth copying over:
    stodge said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/forty-years-of-failed-political.html

    It's certainly an interesting and well-argued read. It emphasises the key role the events of 1989-90 played and the degree to which they changed and undermined the original intent of the EEC.

    The EEC was not about maintaining the peace in Europe but it was the economic equivalent of NATO (with a European rather than Atlantic focus). The aim was to keep western Europe in the liberal democratic and capitalist fold by ensuring economic stability and prosperity was, if not actually shared, then perceived to be so the likes of Italy and France wouldn't be tempted by Marxism.

    It also provided a vision of what could be for the Soviet Bloc countries - the possibility of prosperity which Marxist economics could never produce. It's no wonder these countries all wanted to be part of the "new Europe" which emerged as the post-Cold War confrontation ended.

    The accession of a host of post-Soviet economies provided the dynamic that had thwarted earlier economic booms - cheap labour. I remember the Lawson boom of the 1980s - it stopped not because the jobs stopped but the people did. We've built the 21st century on cheap labour just as industrial Britain was built on workers coming off the land and London was built on people moving from the north of England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland to enrich themselves.
    The transformation of what we used to call Eastern Europe, significantly enabled by the EU, is one of the biggest transformational success stories of our lifetime, with the UK having played a key role in promoting the expansion of the EU to the east. Stodgy is right that we have also benefited from the injection of cheap labour.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    edited May 2018
    Good thread:

    I have two small issues:

    1. The areas where the economy is doing best are in places where Trump is weakest: such as the coasts. The Rust belt continues to struggle.

    2. Democrat turnout in Primaries is way up, which suggests they too are invigorated.

    I'll do some analysis on this (at some point) and share.

    Edit to add: you are fundamentally right on where the value is. Given how gerrymandered the House is these days, I think the most likely outcome is that the Democrats make gains, but not enough to take control.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,916
    ydoethur said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    First!

    Very interesting. Thanks, Ian.

    So were you uttering a terminological inexactitude on the last thread, Josias? :smile:

    BTW, that was a very short thread.
    What, me? Never! I'm as honest as the day is long. :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ul_Kotlqi3k
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    Wildly O/t but Pakistan have in the past been bowled out for less than 56.

    Yeah, I know, flying pigs.
  • Options
    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    tlg86 said:

    A new thread just as the football's about to kick off?

    Not everyone likes football. I'm catching up on last night's Coronation Street episodes right now. :)
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    edited May 2018
    JosiasJessop said:

    ydoethur said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    First!

    Very interesting. Thanks, Ian.

    So were you uttering a terminological inexactitude on the last thread, Josias? :smile:

    BTW, that was a very short thread.
    What, me? Never! I'm as honest as the day is long. :)
    Is the day in question the winter solstice? :tongue:
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    OldKingCole said:

    Wildly O/t but Pakistan have in the past been bowled out for less than 56.

    Yeah, I know, flying pigs.

    They won't be bowled out for less than 356 unless we bowl a hell of a lot better.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Dems average Generic Ballot poll lead is 6 points according to 538.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    edited May 2018
    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Wildly O/t but Pakistan have in the past been bowled out for less than 56.

    Yeah, I know, flying pigs.

    They won't be bowled out for less than 356 unless we bowl a hell of a lot better.
    Dr, you are a history teacher. You should know that history repeats itself twice. Once as tragdy, once as farce.

    Changing the topic, Tory leaders have twice in my lifetime called elections ‘to give the nation the chance to support them’. 1974 was once, 2017 was the second, and a tragedy it was for both the Party and the Nation.

    Back to topic Pakistan have been known to collapse under pressure. This could be the farcical one.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Torby_Fennel said:

    tlg86 said:

    A new thread just as the football's about to kick off?

    Not everyone likes football. I'm catching up on last night's Coronation Street episodes right now. :)
    I'm losing on this evening's racing.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    OldKingCole said:

    Wildly O/t but Pakistan have in the past been bowled out for less than 56.

    Yeah, I know, flying pigs.

    Only if they’ve bet against themselves.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Sergio Ramos is a real bastard.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    Feck. Salah out injured
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    Sandpit said:

    Feck. Salah out injured

    Pretty evil wrestling throw imo.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    Sandpit said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Wildly O/t but Pakistan have in the past been bowled out for less than 56.

    Yeah, I know, flying pigs.

    Only if they’ve bet against themselves.
    How’s the weather where you are. Reports of very heavy rain and storms in The Gulf?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Liverpool have barely gotten out of their half since Salah went off - dispiriting.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    edited May 2018
    OldKingCole said:

    ydoethur said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Wildly O/t but Pakistan have in the past been bowled out for less than 56.

    Yeah, I know, flying pigs.

    They won't be bowled out for less than 356 unless we bowl a hell of a lot better.
    Dr, you are a history teacher. You should know that history repeats itself twice. Once as tragdy, once as farce.
    On that subject if anyone is not watchingChannel 5's documentary on 617 Squadron I recommend it. Most interesting.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    OldKingCole said:

    Sandpit said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Wildly O/t but Pakistan have in the past been bowled out for less than 56.

    Yeah, I know, flying pigs.

    Only if they’ve bet against themselves.
    How’s the weather where you are. Reports of very heavy rain and storms in The Gulf?
    Storm is in Oman and moving north, but should peter out before it gets to me. Maybe a little unseasonal rain tomorrow but no more than that.

    Right now I’m on the beach with a thousand football fans watching the match. :)
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Sandpit said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sandpit said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Wildly O/t but Pakistan have in the past been bowled out for less than 56.

    Yeah, I know, flying pigs.

    Only if they’ve bet against themselves.
    How’s the weather where you are. Reports of very heavy rain and storms in The Gulf?
    Storm is in Oman and moving north, but should peter out before it gets to me. Maybe a little unseasonal rain tomorrow but no more than that.

    Right now I’m on the beach with a thousand football fans watching the match. :)
    You're lucky. Alberto is bearing down on the Florida panhandle and here we're being forecast of 5 days of heavy rain and high winds.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,045
    As the England nationalist David Starkey has said, until about 1530 England was just another European country. Since then not so much. I think we share a lot in common with Europe, some parts more than others but that doesn't really provide a political answer.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    And then there were four...

    https://tinyurl.com/ybn4p6l9

    The astronaut Alan Bean, who in 1969 became the fourth person to walk on the moon, has died. He was 86.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    edited May 2018
    Liverpool already resorting to 11 men back and booting it clear in desperation. This could be painful, but hope springs eternal.

    Edit: And now none. FFS. Cannot see where our goals will come from.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Philip_Thompson said:

    another_richard said:


    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Latest Brexit prediction:

    The EU offers May the substance of our membership, but with no say (ie worse than the status quo)

    May dismally fails to get it through the Commons

    We get a referendum on hard Brexit vs revoke Article 50.

    Exciting!

    I’m not sure precisely how this plays out.
    If May cannot get her Brexit through the Commons she must surely resign.

    Unless she then calls the referendum as an attempt to go beyond and around Parliament, supported by Brexiters who see another referendum as their only chance.

    It does look, however, increasingly like the forces of Remain are getting their shit together.
    You mean all those lying scumbags who have spent the last year telling us they weren't trying to stop Brexit? Those forces of Remain?
    I mean the people trying to clean the sheets after you and your ilk shat the bed.
    Bollocks. Just like the rest of the Remoaners you are just unwilling to accept democracy unless you are always winning. In all honesty you are a fucking disgrace.
    FPT, We don't possess "European Values" (many Europeans don' t possess them, either). Therefore it silly to try and forge a new nation of Europe, based upon such values.
    Speak for yourself sunshine, many of us do feel European and share European values. It is why, post Brexit, this is an issue not going away. There will be a substantial number of UK voters wanting to reintegrate withthe EU27, probably initially by tearing up the Tory Brexit, and renegotiating a new accord.
    What are these 'European values' and in what way would you lose them ?
    Well indeed I'd love to know what values Foxy feels he shares that he doesn't share with eg Australia/NZ/Canada.
    WE do not share the "value" of tampering with the cricket ball, for example.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    kle4 said:

    Liverpool already resorting to 11 men back and booting it clear in desperation. This could be painful, but hope springs eternal.

    Edit: And now none. FFS. Cannot see where our goals will come from.

    Real 1 L’pool 0
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    edited May 2018
    surby said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    another_richard said:


    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Latest Brexit prediction:

    The EU offers May the substance of our membership, but with no say (ie worse than the status quo)

    May dismally fails to get it through the Commons

    We get a referendum on hard Brexit vs revoke Article 50.

    Exciting!

    I’m not sure precisely how this plays out.
    If May cannot get her Brexit through the Commons she must surely resign.

    Unless she then calls the referendum as an attempt to go beyond and around Parliament, supported by Brexiters who see another referendum as their only chance.

    It does look, however, increasingly like the forces of Remain are getting their shit together.
    You mean all those lying scumbags who have spent the last year telling us they weren't trying to stop Brexit? Those forces of Remain?
    I mean the people trying to clean the sheets after you and your ilk shat the bed.
    Bollocks. Just like the rest of the Remoaners you are just unwilling to accept democracy unless you are always winning. In all honesty you are a fucking disgrace.
    FPT, We don't possess "European Values" (many Europeans don' t possess them, either). Therefore it silly to try and forge a new nation of Europe, based upon such values.
    Speak for yourself sunshine, many of us do feel European and share European values. It is why, post Brexit, this is an issue not going away. There will be a substantial number of UK voters wanting to reintegrate withthe EU27, probably initially by tearing up the Tory Brexit, and renegotiating a new accord.
    What are these 'European values' and in what way would you lose them ?
    Well indeed I'd love to know what values Foxy feels he shares that he doesn't share with eg Australia/NZ/Canada.
    WE do not share the "value" of tampering with the cricket ball, for example.
    Don't we? Has anyone told Michael Atherton, Marcus Trescothick or Mike Smith?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited May 2018
    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    1-1

    Springs eternal hope!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Gotta love those american fundraising levels. Jesus.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2018
    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,919
    JosiasJessop said:

    ydoethur said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    First!

    Very interesting. Thanks, Ian.

    So were you uttering a terminological inexactitude on the last thread, Josias? :smile:

    BTW, that was a very short thread.
    What, me? Never! I'm as honest as the day is long. :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ul_Kotlqi3k
    Really strange you should post that now as I was listening to that very song about 10 minutes ago.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    OldKingCole said:

    1-1

    Springs eternal hope!

    Cracking Bale goal. What class!
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,924
    Bale scores. Divided loyalties!
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828
    Evening all :)

    Are we to infer anything from the fact the only Irish county to vote NO in the referendum was Donegal ? Could Ulster's Catholics be more socially conservative than those further south ?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,109
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Are we to infer anything from the fact the only Irish county to vote NO in the referendum was Donegal ? Could Ulster's Catholics be more socially conservative than those further south ?

    Doesn't Donegal have a large Protestant population?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Average quality goal from Bale there.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Are we to infer anything from the fact the only Irish county to vote NO in the referendum was Donegal ? Could Ulster's Catholics be more socially conservative than those further south ?

    Don't know how accurate it is, but someone tweeted that Donegal has suffered particularly badly from the young (ie Yes voters) leaving, and its most liberal part was ceded to Sligo at some point.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Alistair said:

    Average quality goal from Bale there.

    Not a touch on Zidane's from 2002. Hit and hope from Bale.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    Also remember that the Dems have no policies at present, other than anti-Trump and wanting to raise taxes. This policy drought will hopefully change before the mid terms. Also if Trump can a) pull off the summit with NoKo, and b) get a verifiable deal - that could be a game changer. African American unemployment is at an all time low. At some point they will see this and vote accordingly - currently 95% Dems. It is by no means unreasonable to suggest that GOP may gain seats in the mid terms, but history is against them. The Dems had the biggest loss in 80 years in 2010 mid terms. Even Obama called it a shellacking.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Are we to infer anything from the fact the only Irish county to vote NO in the referendum was Donegal ? Could Ulster's Catholics be more socially conservative than those further south ?

    Cavan/Monaghan was close too.

    I think the Southern Irish want to kick the Church. Northern Catholics aren't so bothered, and Northern Prods different views
  • Options
    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Are we to infer anything from the fact the only Irish county to vote NO in the referendum was Donegal ? Could Ulster's Catholics be more socially conservative than those further south ?

    I think most of the border counties were stronger for No than elsewhere. My Irish wife suggests that a Catholic identity would be more important close to the border for obvious reasons and the exit poll showed that religiosity was a strong predictor for the vote.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    Whoops. Is Karius the Theresa May of Football?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Average quality goal from Bale there.

    Not a touch on Zidane's from 2002. Hit and hope from Bale.
    I was, of course, predicting the second Bale goal ;)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Chances of TSE storming the pitch to confront Karius are rising.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Foxy said:

    Whoops. Is Karius the Theresa May of Football?

    Is TSE the Gordon Brown of football? Brown said Gascoigne's goal against Scotland was best; will TSE acknowledge the greatness of Bale's first goal?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,916
    edited May 2018
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    ydoethur said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    First!

    Very interesting. Thanks, Ian.

    So were you uttering a terminological inexactitude on the last thread, Josias? :smile:

    BTW, that was a very short thread.
    What, me? Never! I'm as honest as the day is long. :)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ul_Kotlqi3k
    Really strange you should post that now as I was listening to that very song about 10 minutes ago.
    I am watching you.

    A couple of weeks ago you mentioned the possible reopening of the Ollerton railway line in Nottinghamshire; you might be interested in a couple of page article on the possible reopening in the latest Rail magazine.

    Or not ...
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Average quality goal from Bale there.

    Not a touch on Zidane's from 2002. Hit and hope from Bale.
    Yes, i can't help but think it was a bit of a fluke. Zidane's goal goes in every time. Bale skies it 6 times out of 10.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Glad that Bale got the winner. Good thing Liverpool secured 4th place in the end.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    3 in a row. Vamos Real.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Average quality goal from Bale there.

    Not a touch on Zidane's from 2002. Hit and hope from Bale.
    Yes, i can't help but think it was a bit of a fluke. Zidane's goal goes in every time. Bale skies it 6 times out of 10.
    Bale's is remarkable for the fact he managed to get it anywhere near the goal. It will be a worthy winner of the Puskas award.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Feel real bad for the other Liverpool players - they were underfoot after Salah went off but they all did their jobs, they scored, the defenders stepped up and did well, the midfield created some pressure when they could. It was about as well as they could have done against a very good team, lacking their best player. And then Karius.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Average quality goal from Bale there.

    Not a touch on Zidane's from 2002. Hit and hope from Bale.
    Yes, i can't help but think it was a bit of a fluke. Zidane's goal goes in every time. Bale skies it 6 times out of 10.
    Don’t think it was. He looked round at the goal pretty quickly when he landed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited May 2018
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    The fact the Democrats have won a House special election in Pennsylvania in a district Trump won by almost 20% and gained a Senate seat in normally ultra safe Republican Alabama would suggest not
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    edited May 2018
    welshowl said:

    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:

    Alistair said:

    Average quality goal from Bale there.

    Not a touch on Zidane's from 2002. Hit and hope from Bale.
    Yes, i can't help but think it was a bit of a fluke. Zidane's goal goes in every time. Bale skies it 6 times out of 10.
    Don’t think it was. He looked round at the goal pretty quickly when he landed.
    I also don't know what something being a bit of a fluke has to do with whether it was such an amazing goal or merely a little amazing. The fact he would probably not make that on so many other attempts makes it even more impressive.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    Also remember that the Dems have no policies at present, other than anti-Trump and wanting to raise taxes. This policy drought will hopefully change before the mid terms. Also if Trump can a) pull off the summit with NoKo, and b) get a verifiable deal - that could be a game changer. African American unemployment is at an all time low. At some point they will see this and vote accordingly - currently 95% Dems. It is by no means unreasonable to suggest that GOP may gain seats in the mid terms, but history is against them. The Dems had the biggest loss in 80 years in 2010 mid terms. Even Obama called it a shellacking.
    Though they held the Senate in 2010 unlike 1994 and Trump's average approval rating is now below where Obama's was at this stage of his Presidency
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Are we to infer anything from the fact the only Irish county to vote NO in the referendum was Donegal ? Could Ulster's Catholics be more socially conservative than those further south ?

    Probably marginally so and with Ulster's Protestants significantly more socially conservative than Church of Ireland members in the Republic, the North I would say is now clearly more socially conservative than the south, otherwise the DUP would not continue to win most votes and seats in the province
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    I think Liverpool can feel aggrieved for what Ramos did to Salah. Ignore the pundits, Ramos knew exactly what he was doing. He really is a nasty bit of work.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    edited May 2018
    kle4 said:

    Feel real bad for the other Liverpool players - they were underfoot after Salah went off but they all did their jobs, they scored, the defenders stepped up and did well, the midfield created some pressure when they could. It was about as well as they could have done against a very good team, lacking their best player. And then Karius.

    I feel for Karius a bit tbh - how do you come back after such a pair of howlers? I guess he'll be off from Liverpool but he's going to need tremendous support and self-resilience to put tonight behind him. Tough one.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Of course bar some minor European encounter I hear is happening in Kiev tonight the main football news today was Fulham got promotion to the Premier League for the first time in 5 years after beating Aston Villa at Wembley in a match I was fortunate to watch this afternoon
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    tlg86 said:

    I think Liverpool can feel aggrieved for what Ramos did to Salah. Ignore the pundits, Ramos knew exactly what he was doing. He really is a nasty bit of work.

    Yep. He was prepared to get a yellow card early on if it meant Salah was out of the tie. He managed to get Salah out without even the card.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Are we to infer anything from the fact the only Irish county to vote NO in the referendum was Donegal ? Could Ulster's Catholics be more socially conservative than those further south ?

    Doesn't Donegal have a large Protestant population?
    In 2011 Census

    Donegal 8.5% Protestant
    Monaghan 7.3%
    Cavan 7.2%
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    stodge said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    FPT:

    http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2018/05/forty-years-of-failed-political.html

    It's certainly an interesting and well-argued read. It emphasises the key role the events of 1989-90 played and the degree to which they changed and undermined the original intent of the EEC.

    The EEC was not about maintaining the peace in Europe but it was the economic equivalent of NATO (with a European rather than Atlantic focus). The aim was to keep western Europe in the liberal democratic and capitalist fold by ensuring economic stability and prosperity was, if not actually shared, then perceived to be so the likes of Italy and France wouldn't be tempted by Marxism.

    It also provided a vision of what could be for the Soviet Bloc countries - the possibility of prosperity which Marxist economics could never produce. It's no wonder these countries all wanted to be part of the "new Europe" which emerged as the post-Cold War confrontation ended.

    The accession of a host of post-Soviet economies provided the dynamic that had thwarted earlier economic booms - cheap labour. I remember the Lawson boom of the 1980s - it stopped not because the jobs stopped but the people did. We've built the 21st century on cheap labour just as industrial Britain was built on workers coming off the land and London was built on people moving from the north of England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland to enrich themselves.
    There is a difference now though.

    Whereas the industrial revolution used people coming off the land to work in factories, increasing productivity and creating more wealth (and a similar things happened in much of Europe after 1945) what we're seeing now is the influx of cheap labour being used in lower productivity employment.

    The classic example is car washing but agriculture has also seen declining productivity during the last 15 years.

    Any shortage of cheap labour will increase the rate at which new technology like this is taken up:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-44209333/the-strawberry-picking-robots-coming-to-a-farm-near-you

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/technology-43824607/meet-the-robots-that-can-pick-and-plant-better-than-we-can
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Gareth Bale is quite the black sheep in this Madrid side. He doesn’t look like he really fits in.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    In Ireland, the Brexit generation voted against changing the law. People aged 65+ voted 60-40 against
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
    Looks like you made a wise choice. Still a good season overall for Liverpool... you guys could be the dark horses for the Premiership next season.
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    The fact the Democrats have won a House special election in Pennsylvania in a district Trump won by almost 20% and gained a Senate seat in normally ultra safe Republican Alabama would suggest not
    I'll give you the PA seat, though the GOP did field a poor candidate, but in AL the Republican candidate was Roy Moore. Moore has been fired from state court judge not once but twice, and historically has won election by single digit percentages. Add to that his alleged fascination with teenage girls, with several going public during the campaign.and he was an appalling candidate. I would have either stayed away or voted for the Dem. The seat will go back to the GOP if they field a decent candidate who hasn't molested young girls. The PA seat I'm not so sure.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    Government planning for the UK to take part in the 2019 European Elections.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/26/government-quietly-planning-britain-stay-eu-march-deadline-eurosceptics/
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    edited May 2018
    williamglenn said:

    Government planning for the UK to take part in the 2019 European Elections.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/05/26/government-quietly-planning-britain-stay-eu-march-deadline-eurosceptics/

    Will be good for Farage and Hannan's pension!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,847
    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
    Looks like you made a wise choice. Still a good season overall for Liverpool... you guys could be the dark horses for the Premiership next season.
    Wise with hindsight indeed.
    If Mo Salah can get 40 goals next season we’ll be good contenders for the league title.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    Nonsense story of the day.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1000473336118431744
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
    Looks like you made a wise choice. Still a good season overall for Liverpool... you guys could be the dark horses for the Premiership next season.
    Wise with hindsight indeed.
    If Mo Salah can get 40 goals next season we’ll be good contenders for the league title.
    Agreed - though as a Man U fan, I sincerely hope not!
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
    Looks like you made a wise choice. Still a good season overall for Liverpool... you guys could be the dark horses for the Premiership next season.
    Wise with hindsight indeed.
    If Mo Salah can get 40 goals next season we’ll be good contenders for the league title.
    Another Liverpool fan who lives nowhere Merseyside.

    Just like the PB Brexiteers and Neobrexiteers who live nowhere near the UK.

  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    williamglenn said:

    Nonsense story of the day.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1000473336118431744

    Ooooh scary Jacob, twitching the net curtains from across the road.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    I’m completely hooked on the test match. Hard to get a reliable weather forecast.

    Ideally warm and sunny in the morning then humid and cloudy with several brief rain breaks later in the day.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
    Looks like you made a wise choice. Still a good season overall for Liverpool... you guys could be the dark horses for the Premiership next season.
    Wise with hindsight indeed.
    If Mo Salah can get 40 goals next season we’ll be good contenders for the league title.
    Why ? He scored that many goals this season and you were not a contender. If I were you, I would remove the clown who is currently supposedly your goalkeeper.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just seen what Ramos did to Salah. Fuck me how did he get away with that? That was deliberater than a deliberate thing.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
    Looks like you made a wise choice. Still a good season overall for Liverpool... you guys could be the dark horses for the Premiership next season.
    Wise with hindsight indeed.
    If Mo Salah can get 40 goals next season we’ll be good contenders for the league title.
    Another Liverpool fan who lives nowhere Merseyside.

    Just like the PB Brexiteers and Neobrexiteers who live nowhere near the UK.

    I do think it would be interesting to ask @Pulpstar to annotate his PB Remainer/Leaver list to show those who live abroad. It might puncture the voew that a lot of PB Leavers live abroad... then again, it might not!
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    The fact the Democrats have won a House special election in Pennsylvania in a district Trump won by almost 20% and gained a Senate seat in normally ultra safe Republican Alabama would suggest not
    I'll give you the PA seat, though the GOP did field a poor candidate, but in AL the Republican candidate was Roy Moore. Moore has been fired from state court judge not once but twice, and historically has won election by single digit percentages. Add to that his alleged fascination with teenage girls, with several going public during the campaign.and he was an appalling candidate. I would have either stayed away or voted for the Dem. The seat will go back to the GOP if they field a decent candidate who hasn't molested young girls. The PA seat I'm not so sure.
    If you don't think the PA seat is flipping back come autumn then it is exceedingly unreasonable to suggest that GOP will make gains in the House.

    Senate sure, they will flip back a bunch of seats but House is a question of how many loses.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    The fact the Democrats have won a House special election in Pennsylvania in a district Trump won by almost 20% and gained a Senate seat in normally ultra safe Republican Alabama would suggest not
    I'll give you the PA seat, though the GOP did field a poor candidate, but in AL the Republican candidate was Roy Moore. Moore has been fired from state court judge not once but twice, and historically has won election by single digit percentages. Add to that his alleged fascination with teenage girls, with several going public during the campaign.and he was an appalling candidate. I would have either stayed away or voted for the Dem. The seat will go back to the GOP if they field a decent candidate who hasn't molested young girls. The PA seat I'm not so sure.
    PA I agree is key for the Democrats who will hope it is reflected in other GOP districts in November.

    Alabama was probably more like the Massachusetts Senate election in early 2010 which Scott Brown won for the GOP. Although Elizabeth Warren did win the seat back for the Democrats in 2012 it was an early signal for the GOP midterm landslide in 2010
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    williamglenn said:

    Nonsense story of the day.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1000473336118431744

    Man of the people challenging the establishment with a spare £5m.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrishSeaShantyIrish Posts: 117
    Hello all.

    Personally am cautiously optimistic that Putinists are going to take it in the shorts in 2016 midterms. Beyond historical trends traditionally favoring party out of power at this point in the US electoral cycle, consider that

    > base Democratic voters are clearly energized and are turning out in record numbers for primary & special elections in states from coast to coast -- to vote against GOP in general and Trump in particular but ALSO to vote FOR a (mostly) new crop of attractive, interesting and potentially electable candidates.

    > true there are ideological divisions, personality clashes, etc. etc. among the Democrats - as per usual! However, note that this year the more the district or state in question is swing turf, the greater the likelihood that Dem primary voters will pick a relative moderate as opposed to a flaming radical.

    > base Republican voters are demonstrably LESS energized (so far anyway) and are arguably MORE divided than Democrats. The latest shamble among House GOP re: the farm bill is just the latest example.

    > for both base AND swing voters, Trump is a mixed bag of tricks. He's working overtime to impress & motivate his base, but with mixed results. Evangelicals appear to be his most solid backers. However, more secular voters (at least in their political calculations) in rural & rust belt America have been seriously whipsawed (or severely whiplashed if your prefer) by Trump's trade "policy" not to mention the economic uncertainties (including this Memorial Day weekend the highest gas prices in US since Great Recession) stemming from his forays into foreign policy.

    > of course Trumpski and Putinists are going to argue that it's just the swamp fighting back. And Dems can still snatch defeat from jaws of victory. However, my bet (in the alternative currency known as monopoly money) is that Trump & GOP will continue to blow it - and that the Dems will not.

    Cheers,

    Sea Shanty Irish

    PS - Best way Democrats can show they are REALLY serious about winning is by having Nancy Pelosi walk the plank SOONER rather than later . . . preferably by Labor Day.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    The fact the Democrats have won a House special election in Pennsylvania in a district Trump won by almost 20% and gained a Senate seat in normally ultra safe Republican Alabama would suggest not
    I'll give you the PA seat, though the GOP did field a poor candidate, but in AL the Republican candidate was Roy Moore. Moore has been fired from state court judge not once but twice, and historically has won election by single digit percentages. Add to that his alleged fascination with teenage girls, with several going public during the campaign.and he was an appalling candidate. I would have either stayed away or voted for the Dem. The seat will go back to the GOP if they field a decent candidate who hasn't molested young girls. The PA seat I'm not so sure.
    If you don't think the PA seat is flipping back come autumn then it is exceedingly unreasonable to suggest that GOP will make gains in the House.

    Senate sure, they will flip back a bunch of seats but House is a question of how many loses.
    Nearly 6 months to go yet. Anything could happen; plenty of time for more than a few 'wild cards' before then.
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Benpointer said:

    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
    Looks like you made a wise choice. Still a good season overall for Liverpool... you guys could be the dark horses for the Premiership next season.
    Wise with hindsight indeed.
    If Mo Salah can get 40 goals next season we’ll be good contenders for the league title.
    Another Liverpool fan who lives nowhere Merseyside.

    Just like the PB Brexiteers and Neobrexiteers who live nowhere near the UK.

    I do think it would be interesting to ask @Pulpstar to annotate his PB Remainer/Leaver list to show those who live abroad. It might puncture the voew that a lot of PB Leavers live abroad... then again, it might not!
    Ha! I don’t know really, I’m just pulling his chain.

    Among Brexiteers, Sandpit, Archer and RCS1000 all live abroad.

    Among Neobrexiteers, Carlotta and Felix live abroad.

    I suspect the majority of them live here if I am honest.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,572
    Anazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
    Looks like you made a wise choice. Still a good season overall for Liverpool... you guys could be the dark horses for the Premiership next season.
    Wise with hindsight indeed.
    If Mo Salah can get 40 goals next season we’ll be good contenders for the league title.
    Another Liverpool fan who lives nowhere Merseyside.

    Just like the PB Brexiteers and Neobrexiteers who live nowhere near the UK.

    I do think it would be interesting to ask @Pulpstar to annotate his PB Remainer/Leaver list to show those who live abroad. It might puncture the voew that a lot of PB Leavers live abroad... then again, it might not!
    Ha! I don’t know really, I’m just pulling his chain.

    Among Brexiteers, Sandpit, Archer and RCS1000 all live abroad.

    Among Neobrexiteers, Carlotta and Felix live abroad.

    I suspect the majority of them live here if I am honest.
    MaxPB's a Swiss resident Leaver IIRC
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,027
    Penny Mourdant wants a free vote in parliament on Northern Ireland's abortion laws, and the DUP don't want to be 'bullied'. Could this be the flash point that will endanger the government?

    https://twitter.com/ianpaisleymp/status/1000376829134417922
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213
    williamglenn said:

    Penny Mourdant wants a free vote in parliament on Northern Ireland's abortion laws, and the DUP don't want to be 'bullied'. Could this be the flash point that will endanger the government?

    https://twitter.com/ianpaisleymp/status/1000376829134417922

    I didn't know the DUP were staunch Catholics??
  • Options
    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    Very proud that a Cardiff lad, lived just up the road from me scored perhaps the greatest goal ever in an European cup final. Even better that it beat Liverpool.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213
    Benpointer said:

    Anazina said:

    Benpointer said:

    Anazina said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    Benpointer said:

    Sandpit said:

    It could be worse. I could have spent £3k I don’t have being in Kiev tonight.

    Thought you were working in Dubai? £3k is must be than a week' pocket money :wink:
    I am indeed working in Dubai, my wife is Ukrainian and we were in Kiev last weekend.
    Sadly I needed to be back in the sandpit for work this week, would have cost me a fortune (as it did for TSE) to be there and we didn’t win.
    Looks like you made a wise choice. Still a good season overall for Liverpool... you guys could be the dark horses for the Premiership next season.
    Wise with hindsight indeed.
    If Mo Salah can get 40 goals next season we’ll be good contenders for the league title.
    Another Liverpool fan who lives nowhere Merseyside.

    Just like the PB Brexiteers and Neobrexiteers who live nowhere near the UK.

    I do think it would be interesting to ask @Pulpstar to annotate his PB Remainer/Leaver list to show those who live abroad. It might puncture the voew that a lot of PB Leavers live abroad... then again, it might not!
    Ha! I don’t know really, I’m just pulling his chain.

    Among Brexiteers, Sandpit, Archer and RCS1000 all live abroad.

    Among Neobrexiteers, Carlotta and Felix live abroad.

    I suspect the majority of them live here if I am honest.
    MaxPB's a Swiss resident Leaver IIRC
    Sunil normally posts from a luxurious dacha overlooking his troll farm just outside the Russian spa town of Novosunilsk :lol:
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Alistair said:

    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    The fact the Democrats have won a House special election in Pennsylvania in a district Trump won by almost 20% and gained a Senate seat in normally ultra safe Republican Alabama would suggest not
    I'll give you the PA seat, though the GOP did field a poor candidate, but in AL the Republican candidate was Roy Moore. Moore has been fired from state court judge not once but twice, and historically has won election by single digit percentages. Add to that his alleged fascination with teenage girls, with several going public during the campaign.and he was an appalling candidate. I would have either stayed away or voted for the Dem. The seat will go back to the GOP if they field a decent candidate who hasn't molested young girls. The PA seat I'm not so sure.
    If you don't think the PA seat is flipping back come autumn then it is exceedingly unreasonable to suggest that GOP will make gains in the House.

    Senate sure, they will flip back a bunch of seats but House is a question of how many loses.
    I did say that history was against them.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    It's an interesting question: the issue I see Trump having is that the US economic boom is mostly in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Stamford CT, Denver, and Seattle - and not so much in places in the Rust Belt that came out for him.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    Tim_B said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    I would caution against betting on the GOP for the midterms. Trump's approval rating of 43% for starters is still the lowest for any President since Bill Clinton in 1994 at this stage and that year Clinton's party lost the House and Senate. The Democrats have also gained House seats in special elections including in Pennsylvania one in a district which Trump carried by almost 20%. In the Senate the Democrats also lead current polls in GOP held Tennessee, Nevada and Arizona and have a slim chance of taking control even if they are likelyto lose Indiana and Montana to the Republicans.

    Every President has also seen their party lose House seats in their first midterms back to FDR in 1934 with of course the exception of George W Bush which as Ian Whittaker says was because the 2002 midterms took place the year after 9/11

    I suppose it depends on whether the Democrats are piling up votes in their safe areas like they did in 2016.
    Also remember that the Dems have no policies at present
    That sounds like an eminently sensible strategy:

    If I were the Dems I would stick to "Obamacare is under threat from the Republicans."
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,213
    valleyboy said:

    Very proud that a Cardiff lad, lived just up the road from me scored perhaps the greatest goal ever in an European cup final. Even better that it beat Liverpool.

    Forgot to mention, greetings from Cardiff - staying here for the Bank Holiday weekend :)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,645
    Benpointer said:

    williamglenn said:

    Nonsense story of the day.
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1000473336118431744

    Man of the people challenging the establishment with a spare £5m.
    Let us be fair now, Rees-Mogg may well, reasonably or not, present himself as the man for the people particularly on the issue of Brexit, but he is also surely perfectly open about the fact that he is not a man of the people, so I don't really know what your point is - it's only a valid attack/joke when people falsely present like they are just like the common man, and unless I've been missing a change in his presentation, I don't think he does that.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    williamglenn said:

    Penny Mourdant wants a free vote in parliament on Northern Ireland's abortion laws, and the DUP don't want to be 'bullied'. Could this be the flash point that will endanger the government?

    https://twitter.com/ianpaisleymp/status/1000376829134417922

    I expect JRM will pipe up in support of the DUP position pretty soon, he after all does not even believe abortion is acceptable after rape or incest and Mourdaunt will pipe down.

    As long as NI elects a DUP First Minister (if the executive is restored) then NI is unlikely to see social change
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