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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Brexit is ever to be reversed it’ll be down to the 13% who

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,555

    Mr. P, from Wikiquotes, under misquotes:
    I think people in this country have had enough of experts.

    6 June 2016, in interview with Faisal Islam. Gove's actual quote was: "I think that the people of this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying - from organisations with acronyms - saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong, because these people - these people - are the same ones who got consistently wrong." The shortened quote was reported due to Islam interrupting Gove while he was speaking Gove: Britons "Have Had Enough of Experts" but Gove had no intention of ending the sentence there.

    https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Michael_Gove

    " experts with organisations from acronyms"... some question over the accuracy of that quote ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SunnyJim said:

    I believe hardcore Remainers over-estimate the importance of Brexit to the vast majority who have moved on beyond being irritated by the incessant whining.

    The ratchet will only turn one way once we're left and I find it difficult to imagine it will be in the direction of the aggravation and conflict that has defined the last couple of years.

    There may be some Remainer extremists still manning the ramparts as we gradually extricate ourselves further over the next decade or so (and that may be no bad thing) but I cannot see any political party of consequence being willing to go in to a GE on a manifesto of a rejoining referendum.

    Voters would run a mile.

    A referendum against rejoining will be pretty easy to win - I suspect even a bus could win it.

    A simple comparison of the terms under which we will be rejoining "'ow many billions ?" vs what we paid when we left will be held up against the "benefits" of rejoining such as more expensive Ozzy wine.

    Factor in the occasional EU implosion - can't see it myself.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 80,943
    edited May 2018
    TGOHF said:

    TSE - can you clarify whether you or PB.com receive any payment from the EU in a George Osborne style London 2020 deal ?

    I can confirm that neither PB or myself receive any payment from the EU.

    I have received a benefit in kind from the EU in the last 12 months.

    They provided the finest salmon and goat’s cheese sandwich I’ve ever eaten at an event where they trying were to attract the UK’s Financial Services Industry post Brexit.

    Being a good Muslim boy I declined the Veuve Clicquot on offer.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,507

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    I've not had a problem obtaining them.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Sean_F said:

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    I've not had a problem obtaining them.
    It's amazing we didn't all starve before 2004!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,036
    SunnyJim said:

    I believe hardcore Remainers over-estimate the importance of Brexit to the vast majority who have moved on beyond being irritated by the incessant whining.

    I think you've got this back to front. It's precisely because people don't care about Brexit that they will baulk at any tangible negative effects from it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,924
    Mr. 16, we did. There were a number of significant harvest failures and famines during the reign of Edward III, before the EU existed. If we don't learn the lessons of history, we're doomed to repeat them.

    [Special note for Mr. Eagles - this is a silly post. Please do not consider this to be a serious historical comment].
  • Mr. 16, we did. There were a number of significant harvest failures and famines during the reign of Edward III, before the EU existed. If we don't learn the lessons of history, we're doomed to repeat them.

    [Special note for Mr. Eagles - this is a silly post. Please do not consider this to be a serious historical comment].

    Don’t worry, I work on the premise that all your history related posts are silly.

    I mean who in their right mind thinks the architect of losing the Second Punic War was a good general.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176
    Good to see our Remainers are lyrical about the benefits of the EU for crop picking again.

    https://tinyurl.com/h6pyxbj

    Lucky old Romanians! Good old EU!

    Instead of hearing from the gilded, multi-homed elite worried about their cheap strawberries or tomatoes, I’d rather hear from the crop pickers themselves.

    The few in the UK that I know are now former crop pickers, without a good word to say about working in the UK fields. Still, at least it's not working in the Sicilian fields.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,924
    Mr. Eagles, if you actually realised you were implicitly criticising Hanno and the Peace Party, I'd be delighted that you'd seen the error of your ways.

    As I know you're attempting to criticise one of the world's greatest ever generals, alas, I can only shake my head in despair.
  • Mr. Eagles, if you actually realised you were implicitly criticising Hanno and the Peace Party, I'd be delighted that you'd seen the error of your ways.

    As I know you're attempting to criticise one of the world's greatest ever generals, alas, I can only shake my head in despair.

    He had his testicles handed him to him at Zama.

    Only the heir to the throne of The Kingdom of Idiots thinks it is a good idea to antagonise Rome.

    It is like cock slapping an alligator then acting surprised when he bites off your todger.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,924
    Mr. Eagles, Scipio agreed Hannibal had the better battle plan.

    Scipio had almost every advantage at Zama. His troops were better, because a decade of marauding around Italy undefeated had lost many men by attrition for Hannibal, they were better rested, Scipio had spent months just training them in Sicily. Hannibal had mostly raw recruits and rather unimpressive soldiers.

    The lesson of the Second Punic War is that individual brilliance does not trump robust political/military institutions. Rome five centuries later would've surrendered at least after Cannae, if not before. The refusal to surrender, the determination to fight on, whatever the cost, is what won it for Rome.
  • Mr. Eagles, Scipio agreed Hannibal had the better battle plan.

    Scipio had almost every advantage at Zama. His troops were better, because a decade of marauding around Italy undefeated had lost many men by attrition for Hannibal, they were better rested, Scipio had spent months just training them in Sicily. Hannibal had mostly raw recruits and rather unimpressive soldiers.

    The lesson of the Second Punic War is that individual brilliance does not trump robust political/military institutions. Rome five centuries later would've surrendered at least after Cannae, if not before. The refusal to surrender, the determination to fight on, whatever the cost, is what won it for Rome.

    Very Mandy Rice Davies of Scipio.

    A good general only fights when they hold the advantages. Only an idiot fights when the odds are stacked against him.

    But thanks, you’ve inspired me to do a thread comparing the Leavers to Hannibal and the Second Punic War.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,924
    Mr. Eagles, .....

    Hannibal had to fight Scipio, and thereby leave Italy, because the other Carthaginians weren't capable enough to see Scipio off. The absence of advantages was due to the weakness of the Carthaginian system.

    As for odds against, Lake Trasimene and Cannae say hello.

    On the prospective thread: the EU fantasises about being the Roman Empire [Republic, at the time of the Punic Wars, but people often use Empire as shorthand for the entire Roman period] reborn. That's because they're damned idiots. Rome conquered with the sword and interfered minimally (provided you paid your taxes) with those it ruled. The EU uses bureaucracy and interferes in an ever-increasing manner.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,036

    But thanks, you’ve inspired me to do a thread comparing the Leavers to Hannibal and the Second Punic War.

    Is that why Gavin Williamson was checking out the elephants?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,598
    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    I've not had a problem obtaining them.
    It's amazing we didn't all starve before 2004!
    We issued seasonal visas.
  • But thanks, you’ve inspired me to do a thread comparing the Leavers to Hannibal and the Second Punic War.

    Is that why Gavin Williamson was checking out the elephants?
    Brilliant.

    I’ve always seen Gavin Williamson as more of poor Crassus, except that his enemies would like to pour hot stuff down his throat too.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,071
    TOPPING said:

    Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

    Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

    And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303

    Article on US EU trade war

    Average tariff on cars US - 2.5% EU - 10%
    Average tarrif on all goods US - 3.5% EU - 5.2%
    Free trade imports as % of total US - 48% EU -26%

    https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article176832903/US-Strafzoelle-Europas-Zerrissenheit-ist-Trumps-grosser-Vorteil.html

    All a bit one sided

    Those numbers are incorrect. (and in the case of cars misleading. The EU does not differentiate between cars and light trucks while the US imposes a 25% tariff on light trucks which includes pick up trucks and larger suvs)

    The World Bank has the best data on average tariff rates : https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,572

    But thanks, you’ve inspired me to do a thread comparing the Leavers to Hannibal and the Second Punic War.

    Is that why Gavin Williamson was checking out the elephants?
    To be provided by a private sector Pachyderm Fulfillment Partner who are contracted to supply a fixed number of elephant-hours per year under a commercial agreement that was drafted by a fucking idiot in the MoD and approved by a second fucking idiot in the MoD.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,872


    It is like cock slapping an alligator then acting surprised when he bites off your todger.

    "Hey! Sacred island! Watch the language!"
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,227
    We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,257
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

    Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

    And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed
    Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.
  • We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,257
    Dura_Ace said:

    But thanks, you’ve inspired me to do a thread comparing the Leavers to Hannibal and the Second Punic War.

    Is that why Gavin Williamson was checking out the elephants?
    To be provided by a private sector Pachyderm Fulfillment Partner who are contracted to supply a fixed number of elephant-hours per year under a commercial agreement that was drafted by a fucking idiot in the MoD and approved by a second fucking idiot in the MoD.
    And then, as it is a mounted role, driven by a third fucking idiot in 1st Queen's Pachyderm Hussars.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Alistair said:

    brendan16 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    I've not had a problem obtaining them.
    It's amazing we didn't all starve before 2004!
    We issued seasonal visas.
    Which was perfectly acceptable for them and us...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,696

    We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?
    Muslim Mayor of Londonstan....at a guess.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,507

    We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    We do have Adams, in the Standard.

    I'm not sure if this cartoon is satirical.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,227

    We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?
    It's stumped me. I suspect EDLogic requires a brown person to be blamed, and they couldn't think of anyone else.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,257

    We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?
    It's stumped me. I suspect EDLogic requires a brown person to be blamed, and they couldn't think of anyone else.
    The hand covering the child's mouth also looks suspiciously non-white.
  • We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?
    It's stumped me. I suspect EDLogic requires a brown person to be blamed, and they couldn't think of anyone else.
    Well Gerard Batten was blaming Sajid Javid the other day, not realising it is David Gauke in charge of prisons and the justice system.

    I’m sure they’ll blame Humza Yousaf soon.
  • Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.
  • Is Sadiq Khan 7 foot tall or is Tommy Robinson a midget?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,990

    Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

    Yes, seeing as Venus never comes inside the earth-moon orbit that particular view is not possible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,924
    F1: rumours abound Toro Rosso are considering replacing Hartley. One name in the frame is Kubica.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,507

    Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

    I think we should have a picture entitled "The Martyrdom of St. Thomas" with Robinson being stoned to death by various brown-skinned people, while staring up at Heaven.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,257
    Sean_F said:

    Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

    I think we should have a picture entitled "The Martyrdom of St. Thomas" with Robinson being stoned to death by various brown-skinned people, while staring up at Heaven.
    Why? I thought the EDL were anti-gay also?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303

    We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?
    I believe he does hangings on the side.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,572
    edited May 2018

    We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    The sign around his neck makes no sense. Who put it there? That's my question!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,593
    edited May 2018


    As drunken bollocks goes, that's a good load of it.

    The Black Death was (in this country) 1348-51, where possibly 30-40% of the population died. It recurred many times over the next three centuries, including in 1594-95, 1603 (in both of which a few thousand died) very severely in 1664-66 and less seriously in 1688.

    84,000 died, not 211,000, in the Civil War (although as a percentage of the population that was still higher than the death toll of 723,000 from the British Isles in the First World War).

    We know exactly how many people died in the Great Fire of London - sixteeen, most of them from unrelated injuries e.g. falling from windows. I only know for sure of one person who was burned to death.

    Why do my fellow Remainers think putting out lies, misinformation and stupid comments that a bright five year old with access to the internet could debunk and that even Jeffrey Archer or JWisemann would blush at makes them look anything other than dumb?

    Edit - oops, I've just noticed the misinformation is from a Brexiteer *facepalm*. Now we can have comments on their stupidity but I fear Charles won't like it :wink:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,227
    edited May 2018
    Sean_F said:

    Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

    I think we should have a picture entitled "The Martyrdom of St. Thomas" with Robinson being stoned to death by various brown-skinned people, while staring up at Heaven.
    On checking Wiki there doesn't seem to be a record of how the original St Thomas was martyred. However he appears to have been killed in India after preaching for several years there, and pleasingly for a time his tomb was 'maintained by a Muslim who kept a lamp burning there'.
  • Sean_F said:

    Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

    I think we should have a picture entitled "The Martyrdom of St. Thomas" with Robinson being stoned to death by various brown-skinned people, while staring up at Heaven.
    St Stephen surely ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,990
    Dura_Ace said:

    We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    The sign around his neck makes no sense. Who put it there? That's my question!
    Yes, it is an uneccessary addition.
    Northern Ireland has a great deal of political artwork for the connoseur.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 17,102


    FTSE reasons for not appointing women board members

    The top 10 excuses for not appointing women were:
    "I don't think women fit comfortably into the board environment"
    "There aren't that many women with the right credentials and depth of experience to sit on the board - the issues covered are extremely complex"
    "Most women don't want the hassle or pressure of sitting on a board"
    "Shareholders just aren't interested in the make-up of the board, so why should we be?"
    "My other board colleagues wouldn't want to appoint a woman on our board"
    "All the 'good' women have already been snapped up"
    "We have one woman already on the board, so we are done - it is someone else's turn"
    "There aren't any vacancies at the moment - if there were I would think about appointing a woman"
    "We need to build the pipeline from the bottom - there just aren't enough senior women in this sector"
    "I can't just appoint a woman because I want to"

    I am available. :)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,516

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    I was in Tesco not 30 minutes ago and the shelves are full to bursting with Strawbs?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,630

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    maybe there's shortage of strawberries in London but out here in the sticks there are loads of them. Shops and market stalls are packed.

    move to Essex faster and you wont have a problem
    I used to really enjoy ‘picking your own’ farms for fruit and a kid and would be happy to do so now.

    Those seem to have largely gone out of business down my way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,990

    Sean_F said:

    Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

    I think we should have a picture entitled "The Martyrdom of St. Thomas" with Robinson being stoned to death by various brown-skinned people, while staring up at Heaven.
    St Stephen surely ?
    The patron saint of tanning salons.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    maybe there's shortage of strawberries in London but out here in the sticks there are loads of them. Shops and market stalls are packed.

    move to Essex faster and you wont have a problem
    I used to really enjoy ‘picking your own’ farms for fruit and a kid and would be happy to do so now.

    Those seem to have largely gone out of business down my way.
    A friend of mine works at Garsons near Esher. He said they never used to have problems with people nicking the food until quite recently. He blames Londoners.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,555
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

    Yes, seeing as Venus never comes inside the earth-moon orbit that particular view is not possible.
    A suitable lunar detonation of a nuclear device would probably do the trick.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,555

    Is Sadiq Khan 7 foot tall or is Tommy Robinson a midget?


    No, it's just nonsense on stilts...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,036
    TGOHF said:
    According to one insider, the Government feels it has “give people concrete evidence that we’ve left the EU. That has to happen as soon as we’ve left.”

    And the best thing they could think of to prove we've left was firing David Davis?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,071
    Scott_P said:

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    It's almost as good as the transition from "glorious sunlit uplands" to "not as bad as the Black Death"

    I thought the accepted number for the Great Fire was about 11?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,990
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Oh I’ve just noticed the Islamic moon in the corner, nice touch.

    Yes, seeing as Venus never comes inside the earth-moon orbit that particular view is not possible.
    A suitable lunar detonation of a nuclear device would probably do the trick.
    On the nuclear artwork theme, sad to see the Brixton 'Nuclear dawn' https://tinyurl.com/m62e88j mural has been defaced.

    It has definitely gone downhill since https://tinyurl.com/ycf55b2h - I remember seeing it in person circa 2001 and there was no graffiti on the graffiti so to speak.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,071
    Scott_P said:

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    It's almost as good as the transition from "glorious sunlit uplands" to "not as bad as the Black Death"

    I thought the accepted number for the Great Fire was about 11?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:
    According to one insider, the Government feels it has “give people concrete evidence that we’ve left the EU. That has to happen as soon as we’ve left.”

    And the best thing they could think of to prove we've left was firing David Davis?
    Thats the civil service for ya..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,071
    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

    Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

    And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed
    Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.
    Of course he stood behind it, despite the fact it was monumentally stupid
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,257
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:
    According to one insider, the Government feels it has “give people concrete evidence that we’ve left the EU. That has to happen as soon as we’ve left.”

    And the best thing they could think of to prove we've left was firing David Davis?
    Thats the civil service for ya..
    Plus, as many of the brightest and the best worked out, why work for a time-limited department which you are aiming to make irrelevant within two years as a matter of priority.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    The European Commission has claimed it is not subject to the strict new data protection law that it has imposed across Europe, following an “embarrassing” leak of personal data on its website.

    Officials in Brussels admitted the bureaucracy that designed the rules is not itself compliant with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). A spokesman said the European Commission was "taking and will continue to take all the necessary steps to comply".

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/05/30/embarrassing-leak-shows-eu-falls-short-data-law/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,555
    Japan's ruling party calls for a doubling of defense spending as % of GDP:
    http://aviationweek.com/awindefense/japan-ruling-party-calls-double-defense-fraction-gdp
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    Denmark has joined several European countries in banning garments that cover the face, including Islamic veils such as the niqab or burqa, in a move condemned by human rights campaigners as “neither necessary nor proportionate”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/31/denmark-passes-law-banning-burqa-and-niqab
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 335
    I predict that there will be a small negative impact lasting for 1-2 years and after that we'll be better off.
    It will make almost no difference to me personally, but it will be nice not to hear about 'directives' from Brussels and the EU court and I'm looking forward to not seeing that horrible little blue and yellow flag on my driving licence and the words changed on the front of my passport, it doesn't really matter about the colour but as they're being reprinted anyway why not dark blue.
    The EU will soon unravel in a few years with countries leaving the Eurozone and other countries leaving the whole thing. It will end up being replaced by another organisation that just deals with trade only and there will be a movement in favour for joining that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,924
    Mr. Urquhart, you can't apply laws designed for the Untermensch against the institutions of the Supermen. Obviously.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    The Brexit Dividend

    • Slightly fewer strawberries
    • Better than the Black Death
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,793
    On the plus side AEP is forecasting doom in Italy. Nothing to worry about.

    On the plus plus side I am heading to Headingly for the cricket. What could possibly go wrong?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,793
    Nigelb said:

    Japan's ruling party calls for a doubling of defense spending as % of GDP:
    http://aviationweek.com/awindefense/japan-ruling-party-calls-double-defense-fraction-gdp

    The next major war is China v Japan. Thankfully a long way away.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,924
    Mr. L, depends how the islands dispute progresses.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,793
    TGOHF said:
    Seems a tad premature when we have the transition process to navigate.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150
    edited May 2018
    Scott_P said:

    I'm enjoying the seamless transition of the Brexit extremists from "fruit picking problems are fake news" to "hurrah that we have no strawberries".

    It's almost as good as the transition from "glorious sunlit uplands" to "not as bad as the Black Death"

    Justice secretary David Gauke wants to use prison labour to bring in the harvest now that the Polish workers won't be here.

    Naturally in Britain the threat of famine gives rise to jokes about strawberries and Pimms.

    In another sign of the immensity of the looming trouble, the loonies are coming out of the woodwork. I don't mean rational people I disagree with or who make inappropriate jokes, but proper loonies, such as the Sustainable Food Trust, a bunch of Steinerite crackpots who get airtime on the BBC as if they were sane contributors to a debate. (If anyone is in doubt about "biodynamic" farming, start by finding out about the cow horns.)

    Regarding the thesis of this thread, many of the 13% may not be from the lower orders. Perhaps most believe that they will continue to fare well, or perhaps better than in recent years, even while half of the Morlocks get typhoid? Which isn't to say some of them won't become Remainers and put their schadenfreude on the backburner if their confidence erodes owing to banking problems, insufficiently strong gates, and not being able to see beyond the ends of their noses. But a proportion of them have a more rational basis than the majority of the population for believing they will do well when the economy won't.

    Brexit must be stopped. The idea that it can happen and then get reversed within a year or two without even a hint of Armageddon is naive. WTO is much more likely than BINO. BINO won't happen.



  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    edited May 2018
    Anazina said:

    The Brexit Dividend

    • Slightly fewer strawberries
    • Better than the Black Death

    The claims of a strawberry shortage, especially for Wimbledon, is now a yearly story like the NHS winter crisis that will be worse than any Winter crisis before it....At quick google and even on the first page of results, I can find stories dating back as far back as 2007.

    I believe last year was in fact a record year for British strawberry production.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,840
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

    Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

    And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed
    Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.
    Of course he stood behind it, despite the fact it was monumentally stupid
    What do you see as being the negative impact of the decision to cut interest rates following the Brexit vote?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    Zinedine Zidane says he is stepping down as Real Madrid boss, just five days after leading them to a third straight Champions League triumph.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,071
    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

    Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

    And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed
    Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.
    Of course he stood behind it, despite the fact it was monumentally stupid
    What do you see as being the negative impact of the decision to cut interest rates following the Brexit vote?
    (A) stoked inflation

    (B) wasted firepower

    (C) reinforced the Greenspan put
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,990

    Zinedine Zidane says he is stepping down as Real Madrid boss, just five days after leading them to a third straight Champions League triumph.

    Real well out on their own with 13 european cups now. And three in a row for Zidane, his succesor is really on a hiding to nothing with their current aging team.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Anazina said:

    The Brexit Dividend

    • Slightly fewer strawberries
    • Better than the Black Death

    The next Bus writes itself...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,600
    edited May 2018
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    OT

    Good to see The Mail has taken up Andrew O'Hagan's piece for the LRB. No one comes out of it particularly well, but I have to say Javid and May seem to have been particularly spineless, solipsistic and opportunist.

    You've got to admire the way the Mail has Tony Blair appearing as the prime culprit... and for that longstanding DM bête-noire 'de-regulation', ffs!
    Well reading O'Hagan's article (all of it!!) he puts it thus:

    "What competition actually does is make service providers deliver more of what the customer wants. When building control was with the local authority, when they were the only people doing it, their customers were the public.’

    ‘And with social housing, the residents,’ I said.

    ‘Yes. But once you introduce competition, the customer is the person building the hotel, that’s who they’re really wanting to satisfy, because they want their business. Will I win that business by being really strict and worrying about the patrons’ ability to escape through the door? No. I win that business by saying to the person who’s building the hotel: “I’ll charge you next to nothing for approving the plans and I will use my discretion very generously when I’m looking at your plans and deciding whether or not they actually comply.”’"
    I have just ploughed through it too. Very interesting. The first section is deeply moving - some incredibly poignant individual stories there. Anyone who is anti-immigrant should read the first section in particular.

    Some interesting themes about the power of the initial narrative, people seeking to confirm their prejudices (we all do it), inappropriate use of competition, and outsourcing local authority services.

    (I still question how the DM managed to have Tony Blair as a prime candidate for blame though.)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Anazina said:

    The Brexit Dividend

    • Slightly fewer strawberries
    • Better than the Black Death

    The claims of a strawberry shortage, especially for Wimbledon, is now a yearly story like the NHS winter crisis that will be worse than any Winter crisis before it....At quick google and even on the first page of results, I can find stories dating back as far back as 2007.

    I believe last year was in fact a record year for British strawberry production.
    Otoh the NHS winter crisis was the worst on record and is likely to extend into the summer. In other news, half of pb has backed Jeremy Hunt to be next Prime Minister.
    http://www.itv.com/news/2018-04-02/nhs-winter-crisis-will-extend-into-summer-doctors-warn/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    edited May 2018
    FT thinks Tommy Robinson does it for the $

    https://www.ft.com/content/f8f2b174-6409-11e8-90c2-9563a0613e56

    I have always wondered how he funds his lifestyle. At one point I think it was believed he owned tanning salons, but I seemed to remember he said he wasn't involved in that anymore and more recently he got imprisoned for mortgage fraud (I think over by to lets).
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:

    Anazina said:

    The Brexit Dividend

    • Slightly fewer strawberries
    • Better than the Black Death

    The next Bus writes itself...
    Let Germany bail out Italy - not us.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,600
    Pulpstar said:

    Zinedine Zidane says he is stepping down as Real Madrid boss, just five days after leading them to a third straight Champions League triumph.

    Real well out on their own with 13 european cups now. And three in a row for Zidane, his succesor is really on a hiding to nothing with their current aging team.
    True, but it's probably a lucrative hiding to nothing.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Zinedine Zidane says he is stepping down as Real Madrid boss, just five days after leading them to a third straight Champions League triumph.

    Real well out on their own with 13 european cups now. And three in a row for Zidane, his succesor is really on a hiding to nothing with their current aging team.
    A wise move by Zidane. He can do no more. Better to leave on a high and head for the condo on the Riviera.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Japan's ruling party calls for a doubling of defense spending as % of GDP:
    http://aviationweek.com/awindefense/japan-ruling-party-calls-double-defense-fraction-gdp

    The next major war is China v Japan. Thankfully a long way away.

    Last played in black and white.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,840
    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

    Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

    And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed
    Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.
    Of course he stood behind it, despite the fact it was monumentally stupid
    What do you see as being the negative impact of the decision to cut interest rates following the Brexit vote?
    (A) stoked inflation

    (B) wasted firepower

    (C) reinforced the Greenspan put
    Given inflation was well below target when he did it, stoking inflation doesn't seem a particularly big downside. I don't really know what you mean by wasted firepower either, he's now gone back to 0.5% so surely has just as much room to cut as he did before, i.e. not very much!

    I can understand why Brexiteers got upset with his pronouncements in the run-up to Brexit on the economics risks - I also thought it would have been better for him to stay out of it more. But it seems strange to me that they would be so upset that he intervened to boost growth post the vote. It would surely have been much worse for them if he'd done nothing and we had seen more of a decline in growth.
  • PurplePurple Posts: 150

    Denmark has joined several European countries in banning garments that cover the face, including Islamic veils such as the niqab or burqa, in a move condemned by human rights campaigners as “neither necessary nor proportionate”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/31/denmark-passes-law-banning-burqa-and-niqab

    Wives of Saudi diplomats in Copenhagen are immune?

    Admittedly the wife of a Danish diplomat wouldn't be advised to wear a miniskirt in Riyadh.

    An Algerian businessman has offered to pay any fines imposed:

    "Speaking to Anadolu Agency in front of the Danish parliament, Rasheed Nekkaz said that he had already paid 1,538 fines for women facing similar circumstances in six countries, including France, Belgium, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany."
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Nigelb said:

    Mr. P, from Wikiquotes, under misquotes:
    I think people in this country have had enough of experts.

    6 June 2016, in interview with Faisal Islam. Gove's actual quote was: "I think that the people of this country have had enough of experts with organisations from acronyms saying - from organisations with acronyms - saying that they know what is best and getting it consistently wrong, because these people - these people - are the same ones who got consistently wrong." The shortened quote was reported due to Islam interrupting Gove while he was speaking Gove: Britons "Have Had Enough of Experts" but Gove had no intention of ending the sentence there.

    https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Michael_Gove

    " experts with organisations from acronyms"... some question over the accuracy of that quote ?
    No. It is accurately recording a mistake he made, and then corrected immediately, which is also accurately recorded.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    Anazina said:

    The Brexit Dividend

    • Slightly fewer strawberries
    • Better than the Black Death

    The next Bus writes itself...
    Let Germany bail out Italy - not us.
    "Same shit as before - now twice as expensive"
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,894
    rcs1000 said:

    Article on US EU trade war

    Average tariff on cars US - 2.5% EU - 10%
    Average tarrif on all goods US - 3.5% EU - 5.2%
    Free trade imports as % of total US - 48% EU -26%

    https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article176832903/US-Strafzoelle-Europas-Zerrissenheit-ist-Trumps-grosser-Vorteil.html

    All a bit one sided

    Those numbers are incorrect. (and in the case of cars misleading. The EU does not differentiate between cars and light trucks while the US imposes a 25% tariff on light trucks which includes pick up trucks and larger suvs)

    The World Bank has the best data on average tariff rates : https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TM.TAX.MRCH.WM.AR.ZS
    hmm

    Die Welt is claiming its source as WTO

    they exclude agricultural products
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,924
    Mr. Borough, that's a stark poll finding. Yet the eurozone-sceptical parties remain the most popular.

    As I said the other day, it's like the old Roman expression "holding a wolf by the ears." Italy can't hold on and it can't let go.

    It's why I think they'll stay in. The steps of integration are deliberately small so nation states and electorates travel a long way from their ideal position before they realise what's happened. By the time they decide they want to change things, the choice is small steps away from where they want to be, or a huge leap (necessarily incurring some disruption and uncertainty) in the other direction.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908

    Is Sadiq Khan 7 foot tall or is Tommy Robinson a midget?

    On his knees no doubt, forced there by the man.

    My favourite bit is the heart on the kid's jumper. It's about love, you see.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    Howe've the populists do in a wave of discontent, stats like that will give them pause on many options.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,908
    rcs1000 said:

    We live in a golden age of political art; Goya, Grosz, Rivera, Picasso, eat your hearts out.

    Why have they chosen Sadiq Khan as the hangman?
    I believe he does hangings on the side.
    Disgraceful. He shouldn't have two jobs while he's mayor.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,870

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Japan's ruling party calls for a doubling of defense spending as % of GDP:
    http://aviationweek.com/awindefense/japan-ruling-party-calls-double-defense-fraction-gdp

    The next major war is China v Japan. Thankfully a long way away.

    Last played in black and white.
    Inappropriate choice of colours, surely!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,495
    edited May 2018

    Mr. Borough, that's a stark poll finding. Yet the eurozone-sceptical parties remain the most popular.

    As I said the other day, it's like the old Roman expression "holding a wolf by the ears." Italy can't hold on and it can't let go.

    It's why I think they'll stay in. The steps of integration are deliberately small so nation states and electorates travel a long way from their ideal position before they realise what's happened. By the time they decide they want to change things, the choice is small steps away from where they want to be, or a huge leap (necessarily incurring some disruption and uncertainty) in the other direction.

    On the other hand, Italy has also gained substantially from being in the EZ in terms of borrowing costs. Their problem is that they did not spend that windfall wisely:

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,071
    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Interesting that our PB Leavers are following much of the country in pronouncing that Brexit has been good or bad so far whereas w* h*v*n’t l*ft y*t.

    Some also forget or overlook the actions of the much-reviled BoE chief which did much to stave off any immediate negative effects of the vote (save that currency thingy).

    And faced a lot of criticism for what was a monumentally stupid thing at the time,quickly reversed
    Nope - he stood by it, they introduced a plan together with the decision, and then it was reversed 15 months later as it looked as though inflation might be on the rise.
    Of course he stood behind it, despite the fact it was monumentally stupid
    What do you see as being the negative impact of the decision to cut interest rates following the Brexit vote?
    (A) stoked inflation

    (B) wasted firepower

    (C) reinforced the Greenspan put
    Given inflation was well below target when he did it, stoking inflation doesn't seem a particularly big downside. I don't really know what you mean by wasted firepower either, he's now gone back to 0.5% so surely has just as much room to cut as he did before, i.e. not very much!

    I can understand why Brexiteers got upset with his pronouncements in the run-up to Brexit on the economics risks - I also thought it would have been better for him to stay out of it more. But it seems strange to me that they would be so upset that he intervened to boost growth post the vote. It would surely have been much worse for them if he'd done nothing and we had seen more of a decline in growth.
    He did it in face of a big drop inthe FX rate which was expected to feed through the inflation.

    In wasted firepower he fired his one shot preemptively

    The Greenspan put is the worst - moral hazard is a real problem in finance

    And this is my views as an economist and investor not a Brexiteer.

    (Just about to take off so when I don’t reply it’s because of that)
This discussion has been closed.