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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just once I’d like a solution to the Northern Ireland border p

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  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I just saw that Platosays has been suspended from Twitter.

    Her journey from centre-right to further-right to alt-right to mentalist-right was fun to watch. What did she do?
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    Anazina said:

    If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.

    No surrender to the DUP?

    A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.

    Brexit is a joke. A very bad, unfunny joke.
    Nah, at it's best it's hilarious.

    You have all these pompous nationalists who've said how wonderful Brexit would be, how Britain would ride high in the world, and how they would get a great deal, and it was all about getting a narrow loss in the referendum so they could look like heroic runners-up who pushed the establishment all the way.

    But instead they won, they had to own and implement everything, and all the nonsense it was built on got exposed. £350m per week for the NHS? Current Treasury estimate is a £122bn cost. Easy dealings as we hold all the cards? Ermmm.... New trade deals to be signed within 2 years? Liam Fox can't give any assurances about keeping the ones we have. Irish border will be seamless? 2 years after referendum plans for this don't last a day. Global influence? We're being locked out of Galileo and EU still getting deals ahead of us. Blue passports? OK, yeah we got blue passports. Let's hold onto the passports.

    If we weren't affected personally, it would be really really funny. And some days when I decide I have other things to worry about. it is.
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    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Mr. Song, indeed, the complacency of Cameron and dithering (whether intentional to run down the clock, or not) of May is unimpressive.

    Mr. rpjs, et al., if you believe terrorists ought to determine our policy, that's up to you. Personally, I'm not a fan of appeasing murderers, nor of those who seek to provoke as much discontent as possible to try and bolster their own political perspective.

    You clearly know as much about Irish politics as you do about the nightlife of London, or the restaurants of France.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?

    "As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech

    ... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.

    Hence why there wont be a border.

    The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.
    How does that work?
    Just don't build a hard border between Ulster and ROI.

    If the EU wants to blow up its balance of trade advantage by blocking Calais then lets watch the lorries pile up across France.
    If we diverge from the EU won't that make RoI / NI border a great place for smugglers?
    It already is - from North to South.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    Mr/Miss Anazina, I believe Northern Ireland's ways should be determined peacefully, by its people, at the ballot box. Don't you?

    I also believe that allowing terrorism or the threat of such murderous acts to determine policy is horrendous in both moral and practical terms. Don't you?
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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    tpfkar said:

    Anazina said:

    If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.

    No surrender to the DUP?

    A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.

    Brexit is a joke. A very bad, unfunny joke.
    Nah, at it's best it's hilarious.

    You have all these pompous nationalists who've said how wonderful Brexit would be, how Britain would ride high in the world, and how they would get a great deal, and it was all about getting a narrow loss in the referendum so they could look like heroic runners-up who pushed the establishment all the way.

    But instead they won, they had to own and implement everything, and all the nonsense it was built on got exposed. £350m per week for the NHS? Current Treasury estimate is a £122bn cost. Easy dealings as we hold all the cards? Ermmm.... New trade deals to be signed within 2 years? Liam Fox can't give any assurances about keeping the ones we have. Irish border will be seamless? 2 years after referendum plans for this don't last a day. Global influence? We're being locked out of Galileo and EU still getting deals ahead of us. Blue passports? OK, yeah we got blue passports. Let's hold onto the passports.

    If we weren't affected personally, it would be really really funny. And some days when I decide I have other things to worry about. it is.
    +1
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,598
    Very astute of Prince Harry to import his American wife prior to the imposition of tariffs.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    Anazina said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.

    Given a large proportion of the population of Ireland refuses to recognise Northern Ireland as an entity and considers the British to be illegally occupying a nation state,
    Citation required. Since you know so much about Irish politics.....

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?

    "As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech

    ... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.

    Hence why there wont be a border.

    The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.
    How does that work?
    Just don't build a hard border between Ulster and ROI.

    If the EU wants to blow up its balance of trade advantage by blocking Calais then lets watch the lorries pile up across France.
    If we diverge from the EU won't that make RoI / NI border a great place for smugglers?
    No worse than it is already, with petrol, alcohol, cigarettes all taxed differently, as well as different VAT rates on different products.
    (Of course, that already happens in the US.)
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,709
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?

    "As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech

    ... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.

    Hence why there wont be a border.

    The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.
    How does that work?
    Just don't build a hard border between Ulster and ROI.

    If the EU wants to blow up its balance of trade advantage by blocking Calais then lets watch the lorries pile up across France.
    If we diverge from the EU won't that make RoI / NI border a great place for smugglers?
    It already is - from North to South.
    Will Brexit make that better worse or no effect?
  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.

    https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702

    Mercedes has ten US plants.

    There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.
    Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.
    Of 1.3 million German cars sold in the US last year, more than 800,000 were made on American soil, according to data from the German car lobby VDA.

    So 500,000 'German' cars are imported to the USA from Germany, Mexico or elsewhere.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.

    https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702

    Mercedes has ten US plants.

    There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.
    Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.
    The SLS and CLS are also imported. But yes, all the big selling models like the E-Class are made in the US. And all Mercedes/Daimler's truck and bus manufacturing for the Americas is in the US. Once you include that, you may well be right. They could be a net exporter.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    Fenster said:

    I just saw that Platosays has been suspended from Twitter.

    Her journey from centre-right to further-right to alt-right to mentalist-right was fun to watch. What did she do?

    In the very earliest days of PB she was a Tony Blair supporter.

    That might have been her crime.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Will Brexit make that better worse or no effect?

    Little difference, surely. The most lucrative scams are going to continue to be fags, booze and fuel. I can't see why gangs would bother with anything else.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.

    https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702

    Mercedes has ten US plants.

    There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.
    Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.
    Car Imports into the United States

    Below are the top 15 suppliers from which the United States imported the highest dollar value worth of cars during 2017. Within parenthesis is the percentage change in value for each supplying country since 2013.

    Canada: US$43.8 billion (up 0.1% from 2013)
    Japan: $40.7 billion (up 4.9%)
    Mexico: $30.6 billion (up 49.4%)
    Germany: $20.8 billion (down -19.8%)
    South Korea: $16.1 billion (up 29.1%)
    United Kingdom: $8.8 billion (up 71%)
    Italy: $5.1 billion (up 221.1%)
    Sweden: $2.2 billion (up 203.3%)
    Slovakia: $2 billion (up 123.3%)
    China: $1.8 billion (up 1,759%)
    Hungary: $1.2 billion (up 202.7%)
    Finland: $1.2 billion (up 11,883%)
    South Africa: $1.1 billion (down -50.4%)
    Turkey: $911.8 million (up 666.5%)
    Spain: $816.9 million (up 4,572%)

    The listed 15 countries shipped 98.6% of all American cars imports in 2017.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,709
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?

    "As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech

    ... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.

    Hence why there wont be a border.

    The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.
    How does that work?
    Just don't build a hard border between Ulster and ROI.

    If the EU wants to blow up its balance of trade advantage by blocking Calais then lets watch the lorries pile up across France.
    If we diverge from the EU won't that make RoI / NI border a great place for smugglers?
    No worse than it is already, with petrol, alcohol, cigarettes all taxed differently, as well as different VAT rates on different products.
    Surely bigger differences would create more opportunities to profit illegally?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?

    "As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech

    ... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.

    Hence why there wont be a border.

    The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.
    How does that work?
    Just don't build a hard border between Ulster and ROI.

    If the EU wants to blow up its balance of trade advantage by blocking Calais then lets watch the lorries pile up across France.
    If we diverge from the EU won't that make RoI / NI border a great place for smugglers?
    It already is - from North to South.
    Will Brexit make that better worse or no effect?
    Hopefully better - Ulster shops will continue to sell lower tax goods to the over taxed residents of the south.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.

    https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702

    Mercedes has ten US plants.

    There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.
    Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.
    Car Imports into the United States

    Below are the top 15 suppliers from which the United States imported the highest dollar value worth of cars during 2017. Within parenthesis is the percentage change in value for each supplying country since 2013.

    Canada: US$43.8 billion (up 0.1% from 2013)
    Japan: $40.7 billion (up 4.9%)
    Mexico: $30.6 billion (up 49.4%)
    Germany: $20.8 billion (down -19.8%)
    South Korea: $16.1 billion (up 29.1%)
    United Kingdom: $8.8 billion (up 71%)
    Italy: $5.1 billion (up 221.1%)
    Sweden: $2.2 billion (up 203.3%)
    Slovakia: $2 billion (up 123.3%)
    China: $1.8 billion (up 1,759%)
    Hungary: $1.2 billion (up 202.7%)
    Finland: $1.2 billion (up 11,883%)
    South Africa: $1.1 billion (down -50.4%)
    Turkey: $911.8 million (up 666.5%)
    Spain: $816.9 million (up 4,572%)

    The listed 15 countries shipped 98.6% of all American cars imports in 2017.
    Finland???

    I thought I knew the automotive space pretty well. But I have literally no idea who manufactures cars in Finland.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Liam Fox must be relishing that US trade deal.
    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1002539852171304960?s=21
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955

    Liam Fox must be relishing that US trade deal.
    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1002539852171304960?s=21

    Given Canada is mostly forests, they are likely to always run a surplus in that area with the US.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Liam Fox must be relishing that US trade deal.
    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1002539852171304960?s=21

    How inept would you judge EU negotiators in their failure to stop tariffs from the USA ?

    Inept or very inept ?
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?

    "As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech

    ... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.

    Hence why there wont be a border.

    The Uk just needs to call the EU's bluff.
    How does that work?
    Just don't build a hard border between Ulster and ROI.

    If the EU wants to blow up its balance of trade advantage by blocking Calais then lets watch the lorries pile up across France.
    If we diverge from the EU won't that make RoI / NI border a great place for smugglers?
    Lol - it already is.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,195
    rcs1000 said:

    Liam Fox must be relishing that US trade deal.
    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1002539852171304960?s=21

    Given Canada is mostly forests, they are likely to always run a surplus in that area with the US.
    Why are Congress letting this economically illiterate idiot decide trade policy?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,955
    edited June 2018

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.

    https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702

    Mercedes has ten US plants.

    There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.
    Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.
    Of 1.3 million German cars sold in the US last year, more than 800,000 were made on American soil, according to data from the German car lobby VDA.

    So 500,000 'German' cars are imported to the USA from Germany, Mexico or elsewhere.
    Yes, but Mercedes is the German carmaker that has invested most in moving its production to the US.

    If you want to point fingers: Audi and Porsche have minimal US production capability, and while BMW and VW have more, they both have a much lower percentage than Mercedes.

    Edit to add: of course, Audi, Porsche and VW are sister companies.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,710
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.

    They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.

    Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.

    We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
    Shouldn't this have been obvious to everyone from the get go?. Why is it in the EU's interest to subvert their own project as a favour to the ex member who puts the project into jeopardy, simply because that ex member can't reconcile the contradictions of its own position?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The updated ElectoralCalculus polling average gives a seats forecast almost the same as the last general election:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.
    Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.

    Populist, heal thyself.
    total guff as ever

    the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.

    The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
    "Just a simple enforcement matter."

    LOL
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.

    https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702

    Mercedes has ten US plants.

    There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.
    Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.
    Of 1.3 million German cars sold in the US last year, more than 800,000 were made on American soil, according to data from the German car lobby VDA.

    So 500,000 'German' cars are imported to the USA from Germany, Mexico or elsewhere.
    Thanks for those numbers. VW have a large plant in Mexico which will reduce further the US imports from Europe.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Agreed. But that begs the question of what comes next, and why May would want to time the erasure of her red lines to be so soon.
    If she's planning a second referendum it would make sense.
    Do you think there's a majority in the Commons for Referendum 2?
    Could she even get it done before March?
    If May backed it, Corbyn couldn't get away with opposing it so therefore there would be a majority.
    I think we could get an A50 extension if needed to allow time for it. If it were held in the run up to the European elections it would bring into focus that we would be choosing between having a say and having no say.
    If May backed it - she'd face a leadership challenge immediately, I can't imagine the likes of Gove could back her if one of the referendum options was staying in.
    She could face down a leadership challenge and win, and if it were already clear that the only Brexit she could get through the Commons would involve a customs union, many Brexiteers would reluctantly accept that it's inevitable anyway.
    "No deal is better than a bad deal." T May
    Not to mention

    "there will not be a general election"
    "EU citizens arriving after March 2019 will not have automatic right of settlement"
    "the ECJ will have no jurisdiction in the UK after Brexit"
    "no British PM could ever sign up to anything which proposed a customs border in the Irish sea"

    May's commitments rarely survive more than a day or two.
    I have the impression that the poor woman really does have no idea what she is saying.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.

    They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.

    Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.

    We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
    Shouldn't this have been obvious to everyone from the get go?. Why is it in the EU's interest to subvert their own project as a favour to the ex member who puts the project into jeopardy, simply because that ex member can't reconcile the contradictions of its own position?
    But the UK is so unique and important to the EU that it is obviously in its interests to give us everything we wish for.

    We know this because the Brexiteers told us it was so.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.

    Indeed, the correct negotiating strategy would have been to have talked softly (i.e., been nice about our neighbours in public) but carried a big stick (i.e., to have been clearly prepared to go for no deal, if need be).

    Instead we went for insulting them, while doing nothing to prepare for No Deal Brexit.
    Would we be happy to fund the protection costs which would accompany anyone trying to lay the first foundation stone in NI?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282

    Anazina said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.

    Given a large proportion of the population of Ireland refuses to recognise Northern Ireland as an entity and considers the British to be illegally occupying a nation state,
    Citation required. Since you know so much about Irish politics.....

    Any border infrastructure would become totemic to those dissident IRA groups which continue to operate both north and south of the border.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Agree completely: both the UK and the EU have damaged themselves in the Brexit process.

    They have seen Brexit as a one-off transaction, and have determined to nickle and dime us. Their failure to realise that our long-term strategic interests align, and that we should be close allies will cost them dear.

    Our error was to fail to realise that the EU felt like a dumped girlfriend. Publicly gloating that our exit would cause "the whole house of cards to collapse" was unlikely to put the EU in a frame of mind to smooth our exit.

    We have, belatedly, realised our errors. I do not believe the EU has (yet) realised theirs.
    Shouldn't this have been obvious to everyone from the get go?. Why is it in the EU's interest to subvert their own project as a favour to the ex member who puts the project into jeopardy, simply because that ex member can't reconcile the contradictions of its own position?
    It has now become traitorous to suggest that the EU is negotiating for its own best interests.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,598
    I know I've said it before, but it is basically a coalition between the Monster Raving Loony Party and the BNP.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    DUP statement on the latest proposals says they are half-cooked and calls on May to go back to threatening no deal.

    https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1002569869999722497?s=21
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,598

    DUP statement on the latest proposals says they are half-cooked and calls on May to go back to threatening no deal.

    https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1002569869999722497?s=21

    No Deal, no border. Now that really is contradictory.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282

    DUP statement on the latest proposals says they are half-cooked and calls on May to go back to threatening no deal.

    https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1002569869999722497?s=21

    The contradictions and dilemma would be exquisite if it didn't have the potential to be so tragic.

    As Wilson rightly points out, what would be the point of a buffer zone if there were no checks to get into or pass through it?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.

    https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702

    Mercedes has ten US plants.

    There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.
    Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.
    Car Imports into the United States

    Below are the top 15 suppliers from which the United States imported the highest dollar value worth of cars during 2017. Within parenthesis is the percentage change in value for each supplying country since 2013.

    Canada: US$43.8 billion (up 0.1% from 2013)
    Japan: $40.7 billion (up 4.9%)
    Mexico: $30.6 billion (up 49.4%)
    Germany: $20.8 billion (down -19.8%)
    South Korea: $16.1 billion (up 29.1%)
    United Kingdom: $8.8 billion (up 71%)
    Italy: $5.1 billion (up 221.1%)
    Sweden: $2.2 billion (up 203.3%)
    Slovakia: $2 billion (up 123.3%)
    China: $1.8 billion (up 1,759%)
    Hungary: $1.2 billion (up 202.7%)
    Finland: $1.2 billion (up 11,883%)
    South Africa: $1.1 billion (down -50.4%)
    Turkey: $911.8 million (up 666.5%)
    Spain: $816.9 million (up 4,572%)

    The listed 15 countries shipped 98.6% of all American cars imports in 2017.
    Finland???

    I thought I knew the automotive space pretty well. But I have literally no idea who manufactures cars in Finland.
    Possibly Valmet Automotive which is a sub contract vehicle assembler.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.
    Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.

    Populist, heal thyself.
    total guff as ever

    the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.

    The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
    "Just a simple enforcement matter."

    LOL
    you think nobody is enforcing the border atm ?

    drugs, illegal cigarettes, alcohol, theres a smuggling business in action and police both sides of the border are currently trying to stamp it out.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    edited June 2018
    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.
    Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.

    Populist, heal thyself.
    total guff as ever

    the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.

    The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
    "Just a simple enforcement matter."

    LOL
    you think nobody is enforcing the border atm ?

    drugs, illegal cigarettes, alcohol, theres a smuggling business in action and police both sides of the border are currently trying to stamp it out.
    If you are talking border infrastructure you are talking a whole different ballgame of enforcement.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    edited June 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.

    https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702

    Mercedes has ten US plants.

    There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.
    Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.
    Car Imports into the United States

    Below are the top 15 suppliers from which the United States imported the highest dollar value worth of cars during 2017. Within parenthesis is the percentage change in value for each supplying country since 2013.

    Canada: US$43.8 billion (up 0.1% from 2013)
    Japan: $40.7 billion (up 4.9%)
    Mexico: $30.6 billion (up 49.4%)
    Germany: $20.8 billion (down -19.8%)
    South Korea: $16.1 billion (up 29.1%)
    United Kingdom: $8.8 billion (up 71%)
    Italy: $5.1 billion (up 221.1%)
    Sweden: $2.2 billion (up 203.3%)
    Slovakia: $2 billion (up 123.3%)
    China: $1.8 billion (up 1,759%)
    Hungary: $1.2 billion (up 202.7%)
    Finland: $1.2 billion (up 11,883%)
    South Africa: $1.1 billion (down -50.4%)
    Turkey: $911.8 million (up 666.5%)
    Spain: $816.9 million (up 4,572%)

    The listed 15 countries shipped 98.6% of all American cars imports in 2017.
    Finland???

    I thought I knew the automotive space pretty well. But I have literally no idea who manufactures cars in Finland.
    Possibly Valmet Automotive which is a sub contract vehicle assembler.
    Good shout, but their total sales are only a fraction of that US imports number.

    No-one else is making cars in Finland as far as I can see, so
    Someone set up a massive new car shipping company in Helsinki??
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,598
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    In other cheery news today - this tweet (but read the entire thread) explains Trump's worldview.

    https://twitter.com/fawfulfan/status/1002502139367837702

    Mercedes has ten US plants.

    There's a certain irony that Trump has singled out the German car maker that is probably most committed to manufacturing in the US.
    Yes, that was a silly example to choose. I’d guess that only the high end S-class and AMG models sold in the US are made in Germany, Mercedes is quite likely to be a net exporter of cars from the US.
    Car Imports into the United States

    Below are the top 15 suppliers from which the United States imported the highest dollar value worth of cars during 2017. Within parenthesis is the percentage change in value for each supplying country since 2013.

    Canada: US$43.8 billion (up 0.1% from 2013)
    Japan: $40.7 billion (up 4.9%)
    Mexico: $30.6 billion (up 49.4%)
    Germany: $20.8 billion (down -19.8%)
    South Korea: $16.1 billion (up 29.1%)
    United Kingdom: $8.8 billion (up 71%)
    Italy: $5.1 billion (up 221.1%)
    Sweden: $2.2 billion (up 203.3%)
    Slovakia: $2 billion (up 123.3%)
    China: $1.8 billion (up 1,759%)
    Hungary: $1.2 billion (up 202.7%)
    Finland: $1.2 billion (up 11,883%)
    South Africa: $1.1 billion (down -50.4%)
    Turkey: $911.8 million (up 666.5%)
    Spain: $816.9 million (up 4,572%)

    The listed 15 countries shipped 98.6% of all American cars imports in 2017.
    Finland???

    I thought I knew the automotive space pretty well. But I have literally no idea who manufactures cars in Finland.
    Possibly Valmet Automotive which is a sub contract vehicle assembler.
    Good shout, but their total sales are only a fraction of that US imports number.

    No-one else is making cars in Finland as far as I can see, so
    Someone set up a massive new car shipping company in Helsinki??
    Organised smuggling from Russia, then shipped out to the US?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Where in the GFA does it prohibit customs checks?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.
    Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.

    Populist, heal thyself.
    total guff as ever

    the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.

    The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
    "Just a simple enforcement matter."

    LOL
    you think nobody is enforcing the border atm ?

    drugs, illegal cigarettes, alcohol, theres a smuggling business in action and police both sides of the border are currently trying to stamp it out.
    If you are talking border infrastructure you are talking a whole different ballgame of enforcement.
    actually I don't think you are, most cross border trade passes over a handful of A roads between North and South and there are already procedures in the UK for imports. Same for the RoI

    Legal businesses will fall in to line because that's what honest people do. Smugglers etc are currently at work irresepective of the infrastructure and since a lot of the smugglers have paramilitary links the police try to stop them so they cant raise funds.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Where in the GFA does it prohibit customs checks?
    If there are customs checks those locations will have to be fortified and protected 24 hours a day. In the GFA there is a committment to no hard border, but hard border is exactly what it would be.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Visa card problems hit UK customers and businesses

    Business owners are complaining they are unable to process Visa payments if they use Paymentsense to facilitate transactions."

    https://news.sky.com/story/visa-card-problems-hit-uk-customers-and-businesses-11392087
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.
    Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.

    Populist, heal thyself.
    total guff as ever

    the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.

    The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
    "Just a simple enforcement matter."

    LOL
    you think nobody is enforcing the border atm ?

    drugs, illegal cigarettes, alcohol, theres a smuggling business in action and police both sides of the border are currently trying to stamp it out.
    If you are talking border infrastructure you are talking a whole different ballgame of enforcement.
    actually I don't think you are, most cross border trade passes over a handful of A roads between North and South and there are already procedures in the UK for imports. Same for the RoI

    Legal businesses will fall in to line because that's what honest people do. Smugglers etc are currently at work irresepective of the infrastructure and since a lot of the smugglers have paramilitary links the police try to stop them so they cant raise funds.
    It depends on how formal or if any border posts will be set up. If we decline to put up any border infrastructure, and the EU does also, then there would not be an issue. One Customs post, however, would sink the whole idea.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    AndyJS said:

    "Visa card problems hit UK customers and businesses

    Business owners are complaining they are unable to process Visa payments if they use Paymentsense to facilitate transactions."

    https://news.sky.com/story/visa-card-problems-hit-uk-customers-and-businesses-11392087

    https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/1002583254376108032
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they have scrapped the bottom of the barrel to find solutions that the EU might agree to. All to no avail - which leaves going for WTO terms, which is where we should have started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.
    Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.

    Populist, heal thyself.
    total guff as ever

    the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.

    The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
    "Just a simple enforcement matter."

    LOL
    you think nobody is enforcing the border atm ?

    drugs, illegal cigarettes, alcohol, theres a smuggling business in action and police both sides of the border are currently trying to stamp it out.
    If you are talking border infrastructure you are talking a whole different ballgame of enforcement.
    actually I don't think you are, most cross border trade passes over a handful of A roads between North and South and there are already procedures in the UK for imports. Same for the RoI

    Legal businesses will fall in to line because that's what honest people do. Smugglers etc are currently at work irresepective of the infrastructure and since a lot of the smugglers have paramilitary links the police try to stop them so they cant raise funds.
    It depends on how formal or if any border posts will be set up. If we decline to put up any border infrastructure, and the EU does also, then there would not be an issue. One Customs post, however, would sink the whole idea.
    I think you are being over pessimistic

    In the current situations it's the Republic which has the bigger problem and needs the border posts

    beer, fags, booze and petrol are all cheaper up North. My daughter who lives in Cork always fills the car to bursting when she goes to see my brother in NI
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they hae started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.
    Where do you put the infrastructu

    Populist, heal thyself.
    total guff as ever

    the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.

    The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
    "Just a simple enforcement matter."

    LOL
    you think nobody is enforcing the border atm ?

    drugs, illegal cigarettes, alcohol, theres a smuggling business in action and police both sides of the border are currently trying to stamp it out.
    If you are talking border infrastructure you are talking a whole different ballgame of enforcement.
    actually I don't think you ary links the police try to stop them so they cant raise funds.
    It depends on how formal or if any border posts will be set up. If we decline to put up any border infrastructure, and the EU does also, then there would not be an issue. One Customs post, however, would sink the whole idea.
    I think you are being over pessimistic

    In the current situations it's the Republic which has the bigger problem and needs the border posts

    beer, fags, booze and petrol are all cheaper up North. My daughter who lives in Cork always fills the car to bursting when she goes to see my brother in NI
    That's a small price to pay for the Republic. It can't politically put any up. And yet there will be a whole different tariff and regulatory environment. It just doesn't add up.

    I sincerely hope I am being pessimistic I just can't see how it will all work.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Fenster said:

    I just saw that Platosays has been suspended from Twitter.

    Her journey from centre-right to further-right to alt-right to mentalist-right was fun to watch. What did she do?

    How does anyone get banned from twitter? They let Donald Trump on FFS.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Fenster said:

    I just saw that Platosays has been suspended from Twitter.

    Her journey from centre-right to further-right to alt-right to mentalist-right was fun to watch. What did she do?

    How does anyone get banned from twitter? They let Donald Trump on FFS.
    Would be outrageous if he was banned. Didn’t a disgruntled twitter employee already try doing that?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Theresa May wants the DUP to vote for a customs union. It’s hard to see another explanation for the government’s floated proposal.

    Gov't demonstarting they hae started negotiations.
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.
    Where do you put the infrastructu

    Populist, heal thyself.
    total guff as ever

    the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.

    The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
    "Just a simple enforcement matter."

    LOL
    you think nobody is enforcing the border atm ?

    drugs, illegal cigarettes, alcohol, theres a smuggling business in action and police both sides of the border are currently trying to stamp it out.
    If you are talking border infrastructure you are talking a whole different ballgame of enforcement.
    actually I don't think you ary links the police try to stop them so they cant raise funds.
    It depends on how formal or if any border posts will be set up. If we decline to put up any border infrastructure, and the EU does also, then there would not be an issue. One Customs post, however, would sink the whole idea.
    I think you are being over pessimistic

    In the current situations it's the Republic which has the bigger problem and needs the border posts

    beer, fags, booze and petrol are all cheaper up North. My daughter who lives in Cork always fills the car to bursting when she goes to see my brother in NI
    That's a small price to pay for the Republic. It can't politically put any up. And yet there will be a whole different tariff and regulatory environment. It just doesn't add up.

    I sincerely hope I am being pessimistic I just can't see how it will all work.
    There already is a different regulatory and tariff environment

    Prosecco Tesco Cork - 15 Euro
    Prosecco Tesco Lisburn - £7

    wages, tax, currency , laws all differ today and we get on just fine.
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Please read eureferendum.com, Ivan Roger’s speech, or a host of other sources. They explain how it’s the Single Market and regulatory uniformity, rather than a customs union, which eliminates the need for substantive border checks.

    The EEC had a customs union without a Single Market from 1957 to 1992. ‘Customs’ controls were very much in evidence, but they were required more for conformity assessment and checking sanitary and phytosanitary compliance rather than collecting tariffs, which were zero on agricultural and manufactured goods since the late 60s.

    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited June 2018
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Where in the GFA does it prohibit customs checks?
    If there are customs checks those locations will have to be fortified and protected 24 hours a day. In the GFA there is a committment to no hard border, but hard border is exactly what it would be.
    Can you quote the relevant section. I think I looked for it previously but couldn’t find it.

    Fortified? The checks don’t necessarily have to be on the border. Companies can report on what was imported/exported. While it might be more porous, it’d be much easier to do politically.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    edited June 2018
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    .

    .
    We should have started building border infrastructure and hiring staff the day after the Brexit vote.
    Where do you put the infrastructure for the border with Ireland? It's an absolutely absurd suggestion that would have simply brought all the fundamental problems with Brexit to a head much quicker, in a more febrile domestic political environment.

    Populist, heal thyself.
    total guff as ever

    the majority of trade passes over a handful of roads, the rest is just a simple enforcement matter. The vast majority of companies will comply with the law because that's what honest people do.

    The crooks will try to exploit the border, but then theyre doing that today something that doesn't appear to worry you.
    "Just a simple enforcement matter."

    LOL
    you think nobody is enforcing the border atm ?

    drugs, illegal cigarettes, alcohol, theres a smuggling business in action and police both sides of the border are currently trying to stamp it out.
    If you are talking border infrastructure you are talking a whole different ballcgame of enforcement.
    actually I don't think you are, most cross border trade passes over a handful of A roads between North and South and there are already procedures in the UK for imports. Same for the RoI

    Legal businesses will fall in to line because that's what honest people do. Smugglers etc are currently at work irresepective of the infrastructure and since a lot of the smugglers have paramilitary links the police try to stop them so they cant raise funds.
    It depends on how formal or if any border posts will be set up. If we decline to put up any border infrastructure, and the EU does also, then there would not be an issue. One Customs post, however, would sink the whole idea.
    There’s always been a huge amount of fudge in NI for the obvious historic reasons, and also a huge amount of fudge in the EU when it matters to them. What I don’t understand is how their rules are now utterly indivisible and inviolable when it comes to a border in NI.

    Which is why the British should call their bluff, as someone put it earlier in the thread, “EU build a fence if you want to, but we’re not building one.”
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    Fenster said:

    I just saw that Platosays has been suspended from Twitter.

    Her journey from centre-right to further-right to alt-right to mentalist-right was fun to watch. What did she do?

    How does anyone get banned from twitter? They let Donald Trump on FFS.
    Twitter have been slowly taken over by the illiberal ‘liberals’, and banning thousands of accounts of people with right wing views. If Trump wasn’t President they’d have probably banned him by now.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Where in the GFA does it prohibit customs checks?
    If there are customs checks those locations will have to be fortified and protected 24 hours a day. In the GFA there is a committment to no hard border, but hard border is exactly what it would be.
    Can you quote the relevant section. I think I looked for it previously but couldn’t find it.

    Fortified? The checks don’t necessarily have to be on the border. Companies can report on what was imported/exported. While it might be more porous, it’d be much easier to do politically.
    I’ll leave you to google that.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Where in the GFA does it prohibit customs checks?
    If there are customs checks those locations will have to be fortified and protected 24 hours a day. In the GFA there is a committment to no hard border, but hard border is exactly what it would be.
    Can you quote the relevant section. I think I looked for it previously but couldn’t find it.

    Fortified? The checks don’t necessarily have to be on the border. Companies can report on what was imported/exported. While it might be more porous, it’d be much easier to do politically.
    I’ll leave you to google that.
    Hah, okay. As I said, I had looked through the actual text, but couldn’t see provision excluding customs checks.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Where in the GFA does it prohibit customs checks?
    If there are customs checks those locations will have to be fortified and protected 24 hours a day. In the GFA there is a committment to no hard border, but hard border is exactly what it would be.
    Can you quote the relevant section. I think I looked for it previously but couldn’t find it.

    Fortified? The checks don’t necessarily have to be on the border. Companies can report on what was imported/exported. While it might be more porous, it’d be much easier to do politically.
    As to your second point yes I agree. But all local parties fear an increase in smuggling and criminal activity and I presume they would know.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Please read eureferendum.com, Ivan Roger’s speech, or a host of other sources. They explain how it’s the Single Market and regulatory uniformity, rather than a customs union, which eliminates the need for substantive border checks.

    The EEC had a customs union without a Single Market from 1957 to 1992. ‘Customs’ controls were very much in evidence, but they were required more for conformity assessment and checking sanitary and phytosanitary compliance rather than collecting tariffs, which were zero on agricultural and manufactured goods since the late 60s.

    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
    There is no way most Tories would accept EEA as it requires FOM and even Corbyn accepts we have to leave the single market otherwise his working class Leave voters will go berserk if free movement stays in place even though he has effectively conceded the customs union
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341

    Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?

    "As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech

    ... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.

    People who scream about how technology will fix a certain problem tend to be either not understand technology, or work for companies that want to make and sell the technology. Sadly, all too often the latter are snake-oil salesmen.

    Witness all the current hysteria over how driverless cars will make all truck drivers redundant in ten years (c) SeanT. Here's a hint: no, they won't.

    Therefore, if someone offers a technological solution to a problem, make sure that it exists and has been proven. If it does not exist, be very, very wary: it *may* work, but probably won't. And if it does, expect to pay much more than they initially promise.
    Ask blacksmiths or typists about the “myth” of technological progress. And driverless trucks are already a thing. In 10 years the technology will be commonplace in commercial use.
    Consumer use and acceptance will probably take longer.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Scott_P said:
    GSTQ is used by lots of countries

    It used to be the National anthem of Prussia but different lyrics - Heil Dir im Siegerkranz

    used to confuse the Tommies in WW1
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Chris Criddle
    @ChrisCriddle

    Visa card problems hit UK customers and businesses. I’m stuck at the tyre garage can’t pay by card and all the local shops and supermarket machines have gone down. It’s bloody chaos."

    twitter.com/ChrisCriddle/status/1002590459301068800
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited June 2018
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Where in the GFA does it prohibit customs checks?
    If there are customs checks those locations will have to be fortified and protected 24 hours a day. In the GFA there is a committment to no hard border, but hard border is exactly what it would be.
    Can you quote the relevant section. I think I looked for it previously but couldn’t find it.

    Fortified? The checks don’t necessarily have to be on the border. Companies can report on what was imported/exported. While it might be more porous, it’d be much easier to do politically.
    As to your second point yes I agree. But all local parties fear an increase in smuggling and criminal activity and I presume they would know.
    A small price to pay for harmonious relations with the EU

    I did skim the text again, but couldn’t see any mention of the prohibition of customs activities.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,534
    Are there any Leavers here with a workable plan, which both the EU and they might accept, which doesn't involve the WTO... ?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,534
    edited June 2018

    Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?

    "As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech

    ... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.

    People who scream about how technology will fix a certain problem tend to be either not understand technology, or work for companies that want to make and sell the technology. Sadly, all too often the latter are snake-oil salesmen.

    Witness all the current hysteria over how driverless cars will make all truck drivers redundant in ten years (c) SeanT. Here's a hint: no, they won't....
    Maybe not all, but there's a reasonable likelihood of quite a large number.

    (edit) Regarding technological solutions to intractable problems, useful to bear this in mind...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gall_(author)#Gall's_law
    A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over with a working simple system...
  • Options
    PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited June 2018
    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Please read eureferendum.com, Ivan Roger’s speech, or a host of other sources. They explain how it’s the Single Market and regulatory uniformity, rather than a customs union, which eliminates the need for substantive border checks.

    The EEC had a customs union without a Single Market from 1957 to 1992. ‘Customs’ controls were very much in evidence, but they were required more for conformity assessment and checking sanitary and phytosanitary compliance rather than collecting tariffs, which were zero on agricultural and manufactured goods since the late 60s.

    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
    There is no way most Tories would accept EEA as it requires FOM and even Corbyn accepts we have to leave the single market otherwise his working class Leave voters will go berserk if free movement stays in place even though he has effectively conceded the customs union
    Well that means NO DEAL. But that is not viable either as we have made zero preparation for it .. like a five fold increase in customs declarations!
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    "Chris Criddle
    @ChrisCriddle

    Visa card problems hit UK customers and businesses. I’m stuck at the tyre garage can’t pay by card and all the local shops and supermarket machines have gone down. It’s bloody chaos."

    twitter.com/ChrisCriddle/status/1002590459301068800

    And that is why the banks had to be rescued last time. On this, if it is small outfits they might have been caught out by deprecation of old TLS versions but if it is the whole of Visa we can probably rule that out.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,945

    Will technology get us off the Northern Ireland hook?

    "As Brexit looms, it's clear the tech to solve the Irish border problem is either untested or imaginary"
    http://www.wired.co.uk/article/irish-border-brexit-tech

    ... and we all know how successful large government technology projects have been.

    People who scream about how technology will fix a certain problem tend to be either not understand technology, or work for companies that want to make and sell the technology. Sadly, all too often the latter are snake-oil salesmen.

    Witness all the current hysteria over how driverless cars will make all truck drivers redundant in ten years (c) SeanT. Here's a hint: no, they won't.

    Therefore, if someone offers a technological solution to a problem, make sure that it exists and has been proven. If it does not exist, be very, very wary: it *may* work, but probably won't. And if it does, expect to pay much more than they initially promise.
    Ask blacksmiths or typists about the “myth” of technological progress. And driverless trucks are already a thing. In 10 years the technology will be commonplace in commercial use.
    Consumer use and acceptance will probably take longer.
    I'm not saying that technological progress is a 'myth'; just that progress can be much harder than many people think.

    "And driverless trucks are already a thing."

    Care to give examples of reliable driverless trucks that are actually useful in the real world (i.e. get rid of drivers for an entire journey?)

    They'll face the same trouble Tesla, Waymo etc will, except worse. And ones that go in convoy along the motorway, yet require safety drivers or drivers for the last miles to and from the motorway, are not usefully driverless.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Scott_P said:
    GSTQ is used by lots of countries

    It used to be the National anthem of Prussia but different lyrics - Heil Dir im Siegerkranz

    used to confuse the Tommies in WW1
    Thanks. That's the second interesting fact I've learned from pb today, after twitter outing Plato as a Russian troll farm (have I got that right?).
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,592
    Sandpit said:

    Fenster said:

    I just saw that Platosays has been suspended from Twitter.

    Her journey from centre-right to further-right to alt-right to mentalist-right was fun to watch. What did she do?

    How does anyone get banned from twitter? They let Donald Trump on FFS.
    Twitter have been slowly taken over by the illiberal ‘liberals’, and banning thousands of accounts of people with right wing views. If Trump wasn’t President they’d have probably banned him by now.
    Twitter certainly has plenty of nutty alt.righters too.

    Probably the biggest issue is the bot sock puppets, because it does have great potential as a news feed. Not sure how it is financially sorted though.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,767
    Nigelb said:

    Are there any Leavers here with a workable plan, which both the EU and they might accept, which doesn't involve the WTO... ?

    Leave, see what happens, and then make some rules to stop the bits of what's happening you don't like? It can be full EU rules rather than WTO to start with. NI would undoubtedly find itself in a little bit of a compromise situation if things were just left to play out, but the best-of-both-worlds is a compromise, and I doubt they'd object to that.

    Letting David Davis come up with a grand plan isn't the sort of thing that should pass the board of censors (if they still exist).
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,598
    Thirty trucks with only one driver.

    It's called a train.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    edited June 2018
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fenster said:

    I just saw that Platosays has been suspended from Twitter.

    Her journey from centre-right to further-right to alt-right to mentalist-right was fun to watch. What did she do?

    How does anyone get banned from twitter? They let Donald Trump on FFS.
    Twitter have been slowly taken over by the illiberal ‘liberals’, and banning thousands of accounts of people with right wing views. If Trump wasn’t President they’d have probably banned him by now.
    Twitter certainly has plenty of nutty alt.righters too.

    Probably the biggest issue is the bot sock puppets, because it does have great potential as a news feed. Not sure how it is financially sorted though.
    Their business model seemed to be to get to an IPO before anyone realised they didn’t have a way to make much money!

    The last year or so they’ve started to turn a profit by putting more ads into feeds, but not enough to justify the $26bn market cap.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/twtr/financials
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881

    Thirty trucks with only one driver.

    It's called a train.

    That’ll never catch on!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Please read eureferendum.com, Ivan Roger’s speech, or a host of other sources. They explain how it’s the Single Market and regulatory uniformity, rather than a customs union, which eliminates the need for substantive border checks.

    The EEC had a customs union without a Single Market from 1957 to 1992. ‘Customs’ controls were very much in evidence, but they were required more for conformity assessment and checking sanitary and phytosanitary compliance rather than collecting tariffs, which were zero on agricultural and manufactured goods since the late 60s.

    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
    There is no way most Tories would accept EEA as it requires FOM and even Corbyn accepts we have to leave the single market otherwise his working class Leave voters will go berserk if free movement stays in place even though he has effectively conceded the customs union
    Well that means NO DEAL. But that is not viable either as we have made zero preparation for it .. like a five fold increase in customs declarations!
    It should not really as Barnier has said we will get a Canada style FTA even if we leave the single market and end free movement, the issue though is the Irish question needs to be settled before FTA talks can begin with the pivotal question how the 'regulatory alignment' May and Barnier agreed in December can be implemented in a way which appeases both the DUP and the EU
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Sandpit said:

    Thirty trucks with only one driver.

    It's called a train.

    That’ll never catch on!
    One wonders why some of the money spent on driverless elec cars isn't spent on trams. Like this proposal for a historic small city that already has too many cars, electric or otherwise
    www.bathtrams.uk.
  • Options
    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    RoyalBlue said:

    Anazina said:

    If only David Davis had been able to talk beforehand to the DUP members who are supporting the minority government.

    No surrender to the DUP?

    A bunch of deranged bigoted orangemen are running the country.

    Brexit is a joke. A very bad, unfunny joke.
    If Home Rule has gone ahead I have no doubt that all Ireland would still be part of the U.K. It’s certainly something to ponder in these unsettled times.
    Indeed, but if the outbreak of WW1 hadn't intervened, there was a real risk of the Home Rule Crisis devolving to civil war.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    Thirty trucks with only one driver.

    It's called a train.

    Thirty Trains with only one driver is called Northern Rail

    2200 cancelled trains in a fortnight due to lack of drivers
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,945

    Sandpit said:

    Thirty trucks with only one driver.

    It's called a train.

    That’ll never catch on!
    One wonders why some of the money spent on driverless elec cars isn't spent on trams. Like this proposal for a historic small city that already has too many cars, electric or otherwise
    www.bathtrams.uk.
    Because sadly, as Edinburgh and elsewhere show, trams are a very expensive infrastructure project. They're also not as *sexy* as driverless cars, and sexiness drives investment to a certain extent.

    If you develop truly driverless cars that can go anywhere (and we're far, far away from that atm), then it's a solution for everywhere. The benefits of trams are very localised. There's also a massive potential market in driverless cars and the related data, and potentially massive profits.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,988
    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Please read eureferendum.com, Ivan Roger’s speech, or a host of other sources. They explain how it’s the Single Market and regulatory uniformity, rather than a customs union, which eliminates the need for substantive border checks.

    The EEC had a customs union without a Single Market from 1957 to 1992. ‘Customs’ controls were very much in evidence, but they were required more for conformity assessment and checking sanitary and phytosanitary compliance rather than collecting tariffs, which were zero on agricultural and manufactured goods since the late 60s.

    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
    There is no way most Tories would accept EEA as it requires FOM and even Corbyn accepts we have to leave the single market otherwise his working class Leave voters will go berserk if free movement stays in place even though he has effectively conceded the customs union
    Well that means NO DEAL. But that is not viable either as we have made zero preparation for it .. like a five fold increase in customs declarations!
    It should not really as Barnier has said we will get a Canada style FTA even if we leave the single market and end free movement, the issue though is the Irish question needs to be settled before FTA talks can begin with the pivotal question how the 'regulatory alignment' May and Barnier agreed in December can be implemented in a way which appeases both the DUP and the EU
    As @RoyalBlue says - you are being salami-sliced (or slowly boiled).

    In June, a "customs partnership" for goods (which will be a customs union) plus all necessary regulatory alignment for the UK will be agreed until such unspecified time a better solution is negotiated. In other words CU plus SM for the foreseeable future.

  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Please read eureferendum.com, Ivan Roger’s speech, or a host of other sources. They explain how it’s the Single Market and regulatory uniformity, rather than a customs union, which eliminates the need for substantive border checks.

    The EEC had a customs union without a Single Market from 1957 to 1992. ‘Customs’ controls were very much in evidence, but they were required more for conformity assessment and checking sanitary and phytosanitary compliance rather than collecting tariffs, which were zero on agricultural and manufactured goods since the late 60s.

    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
    There is no way most Tories would accept EEA as it requires FOM and even Corbyn accepts we have to leave the single market otherwise his working class Leave voters will go berserk if free movement stays in place even though he has effectively conceded the customs union
    Well that means NO DEAL. But that is not viable either as we have made zero preparation for it .. like a five fold increase in customs declarations!
    It should not really as Barnier has said we will get a Canada style FTA even if we leave the single market and end free movement, the issue though is the Irish question needs to be settled before FTA talks can begin with the pivotal question how the 'regulatory alignment' May and Barnier agreed in December can be implemented in a way which appeases both the DUP and the EU
    As @RoyalBlue says - you are being salami-sliced (or slowly boiled).

    In June, a "customs partnership" for goods (which will be a customs union) plus all necessary regulatory alignment for the UK will be agreed until such unspecified time a better solution is negotiated. In other words CU plus SM for the foreseeable future.

    As HYUFD is fond of pointing out, what really matters is whether it includes FOM. Politically it seems impossible that they'd agree to anything that does, unless they think they can fudge and rebrand it sufficiently.
  • Options
    not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,341
    edited June 2018
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Please read eureferendum.com, Ivan Roger’s speech, or a host of other sources. They explain how it’s the Single Market and regulatory uniformity, rather than a customs union, which eliminates the need for substantive border checks.

    The EEC had a customs union without a Single Market from 1957 to 1992. ‘Customs’ controls were very much in evidence, but they were required more for conformity assessment and checking sanitary and phytosanitary compliance rather than collecting tariffs, which were zero on agricultural and manufactured goods since the late 60s.

    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
    There is no way most Tories would accept EEA as it requires FOM and even Corbyn accepts we have to leave the single market otherwise his working class Leave voters will go berserk if free movement stays in place even though he has effectively conceded the customs union
    Well that means NO DEAL. But that is not viable either as we have made zero preparation for it .. like a five fold increase in customs declarations!
    It should not really as Barnier has said we will get a Canada style FTA even if we leave the single market and end free movement, the issue though is the Irish question needs to be settled before FTA talks can begin with the pivotal question how the 'regulatory alignment' May and Barnier agreed in December can be implemented in a way which appeases both the DUP and the EU
    As @RoyalBlue says - you are being salami-sliced (or slowly boiled).

    In June, a "customs partnership" for goods (which will be a customs union) plus all necessary regulatory alignment for the UK will be agreed until such unspecified time a better solution is negotiated. In other words CU plus SM for the foreseeable future.

    Plus a token concession on FOM. There will be restrictions on EU migration which in practice almost anyone will be able to meet.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,945

    Thirty trucks with only one driver.

    It's called a train.

    Thirty Trains with only one driver is called Northern Rail

    2200 cancelled trains in a fortnight due to lack of drivers
    AIUI, in Northern's case lack of drivers is not a root cause of the problems, but a consequence of other failures.

    In Northern's case it's almost all the fault of nationalised Network Rail and the mandarins at the DfT. Over-running works by the nationalised Network Rail means that Northern have been unable to train enough drivers for the timetable service that the DfT promised. Northern are not blameless, but AIUI they're more sinned against than sinning.

    And the people who have failed are exactly the people you want running the entire railway ...

    (The situation on GTR is similar, although GTR do share more of the blame than Northern do for their respective woes.)
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,988

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).


    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
    There is no way most Tories would accept EEA as it requires FOM and even Corbyn accepts we have to leave the single market otherwise his working class Leave voters will go berserk if free movement stays in place even though he has effectively conceded the customs union
    Well that means NO DEAL. But that is not viable either as we have made zero preparation for it .. like a five fold increase in customs declarations!
    It should not really as Barnier has said we will get a Canada style FTA even if we leave the single market and end free movement, the issue though is the Irish question needs to be settled before FTA talks can begin with the pivotal question how the 'regulatory alignment' May and Barnier agreed in December can be implemented in a way which appeases both the DUP and the EU
    As @RoyalBlue says - you are being salami-sliced (or slowly boiled).

    In June, a "customs partnership" for goods (which will be a customs union) plus all necessary regulatory alignment for the UK will be agreed until such unspecified time a better solution is negotiated. In other words CU plus SM for the foreseeable future.

    As HYUFD is fond of pointing out, what really matters is whether it includes FOM. Politically it seems impossible that they'd agree to anything that does, unless they think they can fudge and rebrand it sufficiently.
    I think they will fudge and rebrand it sufficiently. For most Leavers I think it is mainly the symbolism, and that they were listened to. For Remainers it is minimisng the economic and political damage.

    If there were a referendum on CU/SM (+ fudge FOM) for the foreseeable future outside the EU versus remaining in the EU, which do you think would win?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    Thirty trucks with only one driver.

    It's called a train.

    Thirty Trains with only one driver is called Northern Rail

    2200 cancelled trains in a fortnight due to lack of drivers
    AIUI, in Northern's case lack of drivers is not a root cause of the problems, but a consequence of other failures.

    In Northern's case it's almost all the fault of nationalised Network Rail and the mandarins at the DfT. Over-running works by the nationalised Network Rail means that Northern have been unable to train enough drivers for the timetable service that the DfT promised. Northern are not blameless, but AIUI they're more sinned against than sinning.

    And the people who have failed are exactly the people you want running the entire railway ...

    (The situation on GTR is similar, although GTR do share more of the blame than Northern do for their respective woes.)
    Network Rail compared to Railtrack

    Discuss
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    edited June 2018
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.

    Please read eureferendum.com, Ivan Roger’s speech, or a host of other sources. They explain how it’s the Single Market and regulatory uniformity, rather than a customs union, which eliminates the need for substantive border checks.

    The EEC had a customs union without a Single Market from 1957 to 1992. ‘Customs’ controls were very much in evidence, but they were required more for conformity assessment and checking sanitary and phytosanitary compliance rather than collecting tariffs, which were zero on agricultural and manufactured goods since the late 60s.

    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
    There is no way most Tories would accept EEA as it requires FOM and even Corbyn accepts we have to leave the single market otherwise his working class Leave voters will go berserk if free movement stays in place even though he has effectively conceded the customs union
    Well that means NO DEAL. But that is not viable either as we have made zero preparation for it .. like a five fold increase in customs declarations!
    It should not really as Barnier has said we will get a Canada style FTA even if we leave the single market and end free movement, the issue though is the Irish question needs to be settled before FTA talks can begin with the pivotal question how the 'regulatory alignment' May and Barnier agreed in December can be implemented in a way which appeases both the DUP and the EU
    As @RoyalBlue says - you are being salami-sliced (or slowly boiled).

    In June, a "customs partnership" for goods (which will be a customs union) plus all necessary regulatory alignment for the UK will be agreed until such unspecified time a better solution is negotiated. In other words CU plus SM for the foreseeable future.

    'Fudged FOM' as others have mentioned respecting the fact the UK are owed the transition controls Blair should have taken in 2004 may be the way forward
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,988
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    PeterC said:

    HYUFD said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TOPPING said:

    Any way you look at it, the only solution to the NI situation is for the UK to remain in the Customs Union (whatever implications that means for association with the Single Market).

    There simply is no other solution which on the one hand wouldn't create some kind of border infrastructure around the Six Counties (unacceptable to the South not to say the GFA) or on the other, wouldn't align them with the EU (unacceptable to the DUP, the Cons, and many more besides).

    Perhaps there should be a national competition to seek out other options.


    We are being salami-sliced. Once we concede the customs union, the EU will move onto continued EEA membership.

    Norway plus.
    There is no way most Tories would accept EEA as it requires FOM and even Corbyn accepts we have to leave the single market otherwise his working class Leave voters will go berserk if free movement stays in place even though he has effectively conceded the customs union
    Well that means NO DEAL. But that is not viable either as we have made zero preparation for it .. like a five fold increase in customs declarations!
    It should not really as Barnier has said we will get a Canada style FTA even if we leave the single market and end free movement, the issue though is the Irish question needs to be settled before FTA talks can begin with the pivotal question how the 'regulatory alignment' May and Barnier agreed in December can be implemented in a way which appeases both the DUP and the EU
    As @RoyalBlue says - you are being salami-sliced (or slowly boiled).

    In June, a "customs partnership" for goods (which will be a customs union) plus all necessary regulatory alignment for the UK will be agreed until such unspecified time a better solution is negotiated. In other words CU plus SM for the foreseeable future.

    'Fudged FOM' as others have mentioned respecting the fact the UK are owed the transition controls Blair should have taken in 2004 may be the way forward
    I think we are converging on a solution. Who's going to tell Theresa? You are probably better placed to do that.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cricket highlights have just started on Channel Five.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,945

    Thirty trucks with only one driver.

    It's called a train.

    Thirty Trains with only one driver is called Northern Rail

    2200 cancelled trains in a fortnight due to lack of drivers
    AIUI, in Northern's case lack of drivers is not a root cause of the problems, but a consequence of other failures.

    In Northern's case it's almost all the fault of nationalised Network Rail and the mandarins at the DfT. Over-running works by the nationalised Network Rail means that Northern have been unable to train enough drivers for the timetable service that the DfT promised. Northern are not blameless, but AIUI they're more sinned against than sinning.

    And the people who have failed are exactly the people you want running the entire railway ...

    (The situation on GTR is similar, although GTR do share more of the blame than Northern do for their respective woes.)
    Network Rail compared to Railtrack

    Discuss
    You're changing the subject because you're realised you've made a mistake.

    Railtrack ****ed up. They might not have fu**** up if they'd had the same governmental largesse that NR had (although AIUI they made a couple of horrendous strategic decisions).

    But that's irrelevant to the point you wrongly made: the current problems are, to a large extent, down to the same people you want to have *more* control over the railways.

    There is a case for renationalisation. But I despair at the prospect as long as the proponents are so brain-dead in their rationalisation for the change.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Fortunately twitter isn't the entire internet quote market:

    Plato is here : https://gab.ai/PlatoSays
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    HYUFD said:

    'Fudged FOM' as others have mentioned respecting the fact the UK are owed the transition controls Blair should have taken in 2004 may be the way forward

    A transition period is over when it's over. You can't take advantage of waiving controls in your own interest and then resurrect some imagined 'right' at a later date when it suits you.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,850

    Thirty trucks with only one driver.

    It's called a train.

    Thirty Trains with only one driver is called Northern Rail

    2200 cancelled trains in a fortnight due to lack of drivers
    AIUI, in Northern's case lack of drivers is not a root cause of the problems, but a consequence of other failures.

    In Northern's case it's almost all the fault of nationalised Network Rail and the mandarins at the DfT. Over-running works by the nationalised Network Rail means that Northern have been unable to train enough drivers for the timetable service that the DfT promised. Northern are not blameless, but AIUI they're more sinned against than sinning.

    And the people who have failed are exactly the people you want running the entire railway ...

    (The situation on GTR is similar, although GTR do share more of the blame than Northern do for their respective woes.)
    BTW Northern Rail is owned by Deutsche Bahn which is the German railway company. Headquartered in Berlin, it is a private joint-stock company, with the Federal Republic of Germany being its single shareholder.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    Pulpstar said:

    Fortunately twitter isn't the entire internet quote market:

    Plato is here : https://gab.ai/PlatoSays

    Posting an American video about how the "UKSSR" is a one party socialist state...
This discussion has been closed.