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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Mr. Eagles, interesting.

    It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.

    There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).

    The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.

    Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.

    Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
    Well there is the Lewisham East by election next Thursday in which the Tories will want to keep second.

    However May leads most current polls unlike IDS and of course Michael Howard ended up with 33% in 2005, 1% less than the 34% the Tories were on in the final yougov with him as leader so replacing him.made zero difference.

    The only time ousting a Tory leader midterm made a real difference was when Major replaced Thatcher and dumped the poll tax but it set the stage for over a decade out of power after the 1992 win and deep party splits
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    currystar said:

    felix said:

    Well, stop being seen as the f*cking party of anti-semites then.... It's in your hands.
    Perhaps if Labour were seeing some electoral damage from the antisemite stuff it might concentrate their minds.

    That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
    I think it may partly explain the failure to break through - given the problems the government is having they ought to be miles ahead.
    What I find surprising is everyone talks about the terrible problems this Government is having and as such labour should be miles ahead. Have people not looked at just how well the economy is doing. When I left school in the early eighties unemployment was everywhere. Now there is basically full employment in this country which is a remarkable achievement. Perhaps that might be why the Government is holding up so well in opinion polls and at the recent Local Election.
    Probably part of the reason.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712

    Grayling up now. On Heathrow.

    Oh good, he really is incredibly impressive ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2018

    Sandpit said:

    Note how well Esther McVey scores.

    And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
    That doesn't matter for my purposes.

    I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
    Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.

    Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Grayling RENATIONALISES British Airways
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?

    And how many new airports will China have built before it is completed...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    Anazina said:

    Grayling RENATIONALISES British Airways

    That is the agreed policy of Leeds Central CLP.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?

    T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5

    2030?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,742
    Made me laugh inwardly, if not out loud.

    https://twitter.com/CrazyinRussia/status/1003940482404290560

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Note how well Esther McVey scores.

    And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
    That doesn't matter for my purposes.

    I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
    Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.

    Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
    He has to get to the last two put to members. Could be beyond him.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, interesting.

    It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.

    There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).

    The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.

    Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.

    Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
    I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
    But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Note how well Esther McVey scores.

    And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
    That doesn't matter for my purposes.

    I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
    Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.

    Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
    He has to get to the last two put to members. Could be beyond him.
    If Leadsom and IDS managed it Mogg can and he will have the arch Brexiteer ERG block behind him.as it's chairman if he runs
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Another wet blanket. I am pro LHR 3 (&4) but Boris is pathetic.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    His constituents aren't going to be happy...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    His constituents aren't going to be happy...
    It's a bit cryptic though. He accepts a decision needs to be made. Is that a way of saying he will abide by collective responsibility?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Grayling RENATIONALISES British Airways

    That is the agreed policy of Leeds Central CLP.
    Leeds Central CLP - where they lead, Westminster follows.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    surby said:

    4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
    I believe the DUP made clear they would support the government only on certain issues. Abortion law was not part of that agreement. So the government could with equal validity say that they are not bound to support the DUP position.

    This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?
    It was under the impression it was a devolved issue so at least in recent years up until the collapse of power sharing this would not have been possible. I think...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    edited June 2018
    Has Zac resigned again yet ?
    Will Uncle Vince come out in favour of international trade ?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?

    And how many new airports will China have built before it is completed...
    Which will come first, commercial space travel or LHR3?
  • On Heathrow - surely a sensible step would be to ban Cargo flights from the airport and shift that demand to other Airports? East Midlands would seem ideal given its location in relation to the logistics and distribution sector.

    How much capacity would be released if this were to happen?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Anything on Heathrow yet from Zac G?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    surby said:

    4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
    I believe the DUP made clear they would support the government only on certain issues. Abortion law was not part of that agreement. So the government could with equal validity say that they are not bound to support the DUP position.

    This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?
    It was under the impression it was a devolved issue so at least in recent years up until the collapse of power sharing this would not have been possible. I think...
    That still leaves about 30 years before devolution.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Mr B, obliged. Take it he’s still in the Tory Party
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, interesting.

    It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.

    There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).

    The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.

    Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.

    Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
    I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
    But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
    All true, but I don't think the by election was that big a loss. It was just the excuse IDS's enemies were looking for.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?

    T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5

    2030?
    It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.

    I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Mr B, obliged. Take it he’s still in the Tory Party
    Green wing of.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    There used to be a third runway at Heathrow - a short crosswind one which was used rarely - landed on it once - but as it bisected the other two runways did nowt for capacity...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Collective responsibility. If he’d wanted to vote against it he’d have to have resigned from government.

    Glad to see progress on this, it’s the most critical project for post-Brexit trade and we need to be digging yesterday.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?

    T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5

    2030?
    It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.

    I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
    Why won't it be built ? Other infrastructure projects can and will be, oh it might take a long while and we'll all probably be waiting till 2050 but eventually it'll go up.
    Are you personally opposed or some such ? I think it'll be good for the economy personally.
    LHR is at capacity, and airlines want more slots there. Of all the big infrastructure projects it has by far the best business case out of any of them.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
    Reasonably certain the SNP will abstain or vote against abortion changes on devolution principle.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    surby said:

    4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
    I believe the DUP made clear they would support the government only on certain issues. Abortion law was not part of that agreement. So the government could with equal validity say that they are not bound to support the DUP position.

    This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?
    It was under the impression it was a devolved issue so at least in recent years up until the collapse of power sharing this would not have been possible. I think...
    That still leaves about 30 years before devolution.
    Agreed. I have no idea why N.Ireland wasn't included in the original legalisation back in the 60s.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Note how well Esther McVey scores.

    And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
    That doesn't matter for my purposes.

    I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
    Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.

    Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
    And how long do you think that'd last when faced with the realities of office? It's easy to be a critic from the backbenches, to pop up when you feel like it and hide when you don't; to intervene on subjects that interest you and ignore those that don't; to deal with people you find convivial and not those who irritate. Leaders have no such luxuries.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, interesting.

    It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.

    There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).

    The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.

    Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.

    Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
    I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
    But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
    All true, but I don't think the by election was that big a loss. It was just the excuse IDS's enemies were looking for.
    The by-election wasn't even that big a loss. In the post-Iraq circumstances, the LDs were always going to stand a chance. Given that it was over three months from then until the VoNC, did it really play that big a role? The plotting would have happened over the summer either way, though no doubt it helped sharpen minds (and knives).
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?

    T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5

    2030?
    It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.

    I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
    Why won't it be built ? Other infrastructure projects can and will be, oh it might take a long while and we'll all probably be waiting till 2050 but eventually it'll go up.
    Are you personally opposed or some such ? I think it'll be good for the economy personally.
    LHR is at capacity, and airlines want more slots there. Of all the big infrastructure projects it has by far the best business case out of any of them.
    The new capacity that would cost about £8bn to provide at Gatwick will cost £18bn at Heathrow, making Heathrow by far the most expensive airport in the world — which is why BA, its main user, opposes its expansion. The new transport links to service a new Heathrow terminal are also much more costly than those that would be needed for an expanded Gatwick. Gatwick’s principal disadvantage — its less central location, about 30 miles south of London — means that fewer people suffer disturbance from airport expansion.

    The business case, if you examine it, is very marginal and depends on dodgy assumptions that are already out of date. Zac has pointed out the very unhealthy relationship between the Dept of Transport and Heathrow top management with jobs swaps etc.

    The quality of the debate on this has been worse than on Brexit and the decision today is driven by short term politics and has nothing to do with the national interest. It will be a long, very expensive time wasting exercise that delays doing the right thing for airport expansion,.


  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    surby said:

    4] The DUP will bring down the government next week?
    I believe the DUP made clear they would support the government only on certain issues. Abortion law was not part of that agreement. So the government could with equal validity say that they are not bound to support the DUP position.

    This brings up the question: if Parliament indeed could change the law in NI, why did we wait 51 years ?
    It was under the impression it was a devolved issue so at least in recent years up until the collapse of power sharing this would not have been possible. I think...
    That still leaves about 30 years before devolution.
    Agreed. I have no idea why N.Ireland wasn't included in the original legalisation back in the 60s.
    Presumably because Northern Ireland had home rule at the time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    A number of Labour MPs in favour of LHR expansion too.
    https://twitter.com/VirendraSharma/status/976413750944202753
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Note how well Esther McVey scores.

    And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
    That doesn't matter for my purposes.

    I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
    Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.

    Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
    And how long do you think that'd last when faced with the realities of office? It's easy to be a critic from the backbenches, to pop up when you feel like it and hide when you don't; to intervene on subjects that interest you and ignore those that don't; to deal with people you find convivial and not those who irritate. Leaders have no such luxuries.
    Well being a backbench irritant then being leader did not do Corbyn too much harm did it? I am increasingly seeing more support for Mogg amongst Tory members I speak to, if May goes it could well end up Mogg v Corbyn at the next general election
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?

    T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5

    2030?
    It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.

    I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
    Why won't it be built ? Other infrastructure projects can and will be, oh it might take a long while and we'll all probably be waiting till 2050 but eventually it'll go up.
    Are you personally opposed or some such ? I think it'll be good for the economy personally.
    LHR is at capacity, and airlines want more slots there. Of all the big infrastructure projects it has by far the best business case out of any of them.
    Surely we need more than one runway with Dover blocked?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    On Heathrow - surely a sensible step would be to ban Cargo flights from the airport and shift that demand to other Airports? East Midlands would seem ideal given its location in relation to the logistics and distribution sector.

    How much capacity would be released if this were to happen?

    Almost all cargo at LHR comes in the belly-hold of passenger aircraft (well over 95%, from memory). So it wouldn't help much.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?

    T5 was 9.5 years, from initial planning application to the first spade in the ground, and that was a development contained within the existing field boundary bar a couple of access roads.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathrow_Terminal_5

    2030?
    It won't be built. Gatwick and regional airports will be expanded instead. The LHR3 fiasco is simply delaying these plans and damaging the national interest.

    I can see the headline in the next Richmond Park Focus. Government betrays local residents and defies economic and environmental sense. (It may need to be made a bit snappier!). Bye bye Zac.
    Why won't it be built ? Other infrastructure projects can and will be, oh it might take a long while and we'll all probably be waiting till 2050 but eventually it'll go up.
    Are you personally opposed or some such ? I think it'll be good for the economy personally.
    LHR is at capacity, and airlines want more slots there. Of all the big infrastructure projects it has by far the best business case out of any of them.
    The new capacity that would cost about £8bn to provide at Gatwick will cost £18bn at Heathrow, making Heathrow by far the most expensive airport in the world — which is why BA, its main user, opposes its expansion. The new transport links to service a new Heathrow terminal are also much more costly than those that would be needed for an expanded Gatwick. Gatwick’s principal disadvantage — its less central location, about 30 miles south of London — means that fewer people suffer disturbance from airport expansion.

    The business case, if you examine it, is very marginal and depends on dodgy assumptions that are already out of date. Zac has pointed out the very unhealthy relationship between the Dept of Transport and Heathrow top management with jobs swaps etc.

    The quality of the debate on this has been worse than on Brexit and the decision today is driven by short term politics and has nothing to do with the national interest. It will be a long, very expensive time wasting exercise that delays doing the right thing for airport expansion,.


    Gatwick expansion is dead in the water - too remote and the airlines don't want it. It was only ever a contingency plan anyway, cooked up in the unlikely event that the Third Runway was blocked. Now that genie has been freed, it's never going back in the lamp.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:
    Will the Barnett formula kick in and give the SNP more money?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    MaxPB said:
    Will the Barnett formula kick in and give the SNP more money?
    Its being funded by the owners...
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Anazina said:

    Grayling RENATIONALISES British Airways

    And builds a third runway on Northern Rail?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    MaxPB said:
    Will the Barnett formula kick in and give the SNP more money?
    Its being funded by the owners...
    Including all the extra rail infrastructure etc that's been spoken about? There's no central government funding?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Note how well Esther McVey scores.

    And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
    That doesn't matter for my purposes.

    I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
    Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.

    Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
    And how long do you think that'd last when faced with the realities of office? It's easy to be a critic from the backbenches, to pop up when you feel like it and hide when you don't; to intervene on subjects that interest you and ignore those that don't; to deal with people you find convivial and not those who irritate. Leaders have no such luxuries.
    Well being a backbench irritant then being leader did not do Corbyn too much harm did it? I am increasingly seeing more support for Mogg amongst Tory members I speak to, if May goes it could well end up Mogg v Corbyn at the next general election
    You seriously think Corbyn is doing a good job?

    He had four good weeks in 2017. Granted, they were four important weeks but that apart, his leadership of Labour has been pretty disastrous apart from in membership recruitment (and that's a distinctly double-edged sword).

    Corbyn also had 18 months in which to find his feet (in which he singularly failed; he faced a challenge within a year, he suffered scores of front-bench resignations, and Labour was polling in the mid-20s in March 2017); Mogg, or whoever, would become PM on Day 1.

    Mogg is massively overrated as a potential leader, not least because he may well not even stand and if he does, I don't see where he finds the 80-90 MP votes he'd need to make the members' run-off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    I've been offered free tickets to Jezfest.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    I've been offered free tickets to Jezfest.

    Unmissable :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    Note how well Esther McVey scores.

    And how much of that positivity is entirely down to the hatred thrown at her by the other side, as opposed to her actual job performance as a minister?
    That doesn't matter for my purposes.

    I note that Jacob Rees-Mogg is drifting in the next Conservative leader betting. It seems to be dawning on some bettors that there are other far more qualified Leaver politicians.
    Mogg has a better Yougov rating with the public than Hunt, Gove, Boris, Williamson and Hammond.

    Only Davidson and Mourdaunt and Javid of potential successors to May poll better with voters thsn Mogg does. Mogg of course also led the last Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll
    And how long do you think that'd last when faced with the realities of office? It's easy to be a critic from the backbenches, to pop up when you feel like it and hide when you don't; to intervene on subjects that interest you and ignore those that don't; to deal with people you find convivial and not those who irritate. Leaders have no such luxuries.
    Well being a backbench irritant then being leader did not do Corbyn too much harm did it? I am increasingly seeing more support for Mogg amongst Tory members I speak to, if May goes it could well end up Mogg v Corbyn at the next general election
    You seriously think Corbyn is doing a good job?

    He had four good weeks in 2017. Granted, they were four important weeks but that apart, his leadership of Labour has been pretty disastrous apart from in membership recruitment (and that's a distinctly double-edged sword).

    Corbyn also had 18 months in which to find his feet (in which he singularly failed; he faced a challenge within a year, he suffered scores of front-bench resignations, and Labour was polling in the mid-20s in March 2017); Mogg, or whoever, would become PM on Day 1.

    Mogg is massively overrated as a potential leader, not least because he may well not even stand and if he does, I don't see where he finds the 80-90 MP votes he'd need to make the members' run-off.
    Corbyn got the biggest increase in Labour MPs since Tony Blair at the last general election.

    There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Out of curiosity does anyone have the ConHome polls for next leader or equivalent before Cameron resigned? Where was May on that list.

    I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557
    If the World Cup were being played here, I might be interested...
    https://i2.wp.com/thedockyards.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Stadium.jpeg
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2018
    Ha ha, according to Guido:

    Tracey Ullman has been filming in Walton-on-Thames this morning dressed in full Corbyn attire standing in front of a mocked up Labour Live tickets stall.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Akbar Al Baker, International Air Transport Association chair and chief executive of Qatar Airways, said his job could only be done by a man.

    "Of course it has to be led by a man, because it is a very challenging position," Mr Baker said.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44369163

    Other views are available...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274

    I've been offered free tickets to Jezfest.

    You would have to pay me serious bucks to go and listen to the likes of McIRA and Owen Jones drone on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    On Heathrow - surely a sensible step would be to ban Cargo flights from the airport and shift that demand to other Airports? East Midlands would seem ideal given its location in relation to the logistics and distribution sector.

    How much capacity would be released if this were to happen?

    East Midlands already is very freight oriented. It is the only UK Airport to fly all night, so that freight can be onwardly distributed next day.

    I know, because the flightpath goes over my house and they use older, noisier planes for freight.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone up for a sweepstake on when Heathrow's third runway will actually start being built ?

    And how many new airports will China have built before it is completed...
    Which will come first, commercial space travel or LHR3?
    Commercial space travel to the Moon and you have a contest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Matt Hancock will give his decision on the Sky takeover once transport secretary Chris Grayling finishes answering questions from MPs about Heathrow Airport.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    Out of curiosity does anyone have the ConHome polls for next leader or equivalent before Cameron resigned? Where was May on that list.

    I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.

    Yup.

    1 - Gove 30%

    2 - Boris 22%

    3 - May 16%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Out of curiosity does anyone have the ConHome polls for next leader or equivalent before Cameron resigned? Where was May on that list.

    I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/05/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-second-month-running.html
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    currystar said:

    felix said:

    Well, stop being seen as the f*cking party of anti-semites then.... It's in your hands.
    Perhaps if Labour were seeing some electoral damage from the antisemite stuff it might concentrate their minds.

    That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
    I think it may partly explain the failure to break through - given the problems the government is having they ought to be miles ahead.
    What I find surprising is everyone talks about the terrible problems this Government is having and as such labour should be miles ahead. Have people not looked at just how well the economy is doing. When I left school in the early eighties unemployment was everywhere. Now there is basically full employment in this country which is a remarkable achievement. Perhaps that might be why the Government is holding up so well in opinion polls and at the recent Local Election.
    Well, maybe, but set against that you have the decline in living standards as prices have risen faster than pay.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Out of curiosity does anyone have the ConHome polls for next leader or equivalent before Cameron resigned? Where was May on that list.

    I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.

    Yup.

    1 - Gove 30%

    2 - Boris 22%

    3 - May 16%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
    So May was nowhere near runaway favourite and the fact that Mogg is topping the survey currently is utterly irrelevant then.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini

    I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited June 2018

    There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini

    I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.

    We really need a new sensible political party...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Matt Hancock will give his decision on the Sky takeover once transport secretary Chris Grayling finishes answering questions from MPs about Heathrow Airport.

    Slow news day.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    Out of curiosity does anyone have the ConHome polls for next leader or equivalent before Cameron resigned? Where was May on that list.

    I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.

    Yup.

    1 - Gove 30%

    2 - Boris 22%

    3 - May 16%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
    So May was nowhere near runaway favourite and the fact that Mogg is topping the survey currently is utterly irrelevant then.
    Yah, I did a thread on it.

    In late 2015 George Osborne CH PBUH had led the ConHome polls for several months in a row.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/12/03/your-regular-reminder-that-laying-the-favourite-in-the-next-tory-leader-market-is-usually-very-profitable/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Out of curiosity does anyone have the ConHome polls for next leader or equivalent before Cameron resigned? Where was May on that list.

    I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.

    Yup.

    1 - Gove 30%

    2 - Boris 22%

    3 - May 16%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
    So May was nowhere near runaway favourite and the fact that Mogg is topping the survey currently is utterly irrelevant then.
    Well d'uh....it's a POLL!!!

    :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2018

    'There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini

    I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.'


    Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,757

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, interesting.

    It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.

    There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).

    The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.

    Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.

    Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
    I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
    But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
    All true, but I don't think the by election was that big a loss. It was just the excuse IDS's enemies were looking for.
    The by-election wasn't even that big a loss. In the post-Iraq circumstances, the LDs were always going to stand a chance. Given that it was over three months from then until the VoNC, did it really play that big a role? The plotting would have happened over the summer either way, though no doubt it helped sharpen minds (and knives).
    It's an object lesson in how the Lib Dems can come out of nowhere and then disappear. They held Brent East, and then Brent Central, from 2003-2015, and dominated local government in the constituency, and then they vanished.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    HYUFD said:

    'There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
    I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.'


    Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016

    And theres less Tory MPs now then then ;)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559
    ever get the impression the politicos haven't thought this through ?

    someone telling them to stuff it where the sun don't shine live on TV is going to be prime viewing
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Out of curiosity does anyone have the ConHome polls for next leader or equivalent before Cameron resigned? Where was May on that list.

    I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.

    Yup.

    1 - Gove 30%

    2 - Boris 22%

    3 - May 16%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
    So May was nowhere near runaway favourite and the fact that Mogg is topping the survey currently is utterly irrelevant then.
    No, because May did not get to the membership vote. Which ever two get put to the membership vote you can then make a judgement about how representative of the Con party membership as a whole Conhome polls are and make your choice.
    IMHO May would have lost to Leadsom if the membership voted. Other opinions are available.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2018

    Out of curiosity does anyone have the ConHome polls for next leader or equivalent before Cameron resigned? Where was May on that list.

    I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.

    Yup.

    1 - Gove 30%

    2 - Boris 22%

    3 - May 16%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
    So May was nowhere near runaway favourite and the fact that Mogg is topping the survey currently is utterly irrelevant then.
    No it isn't at all as even on that poll May was in the top 3 and Gove came third and of course May led all the Conservative Home polls before Leadsom pulled out.

    May also topped the January 2016 Conservative Home poll

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/01/our-future-tory-leader-feels-the-brexit-factor-as-theresa-may-goes-top.html
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Freggles said:

    Anazina said:

    Grayling RENATIONALISES British Airways

    And builds a third runway on Northern Rail?
    Or a third rail way on the great north run?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    'There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
    I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.'


    Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016

    Why do you think those 80 (or 125) MPs would be voting en masse for Jacob Rees-Mogg rather than, for example, Michael Gove or any of the half dozen other crazed Europhobes who look in the mirror and see a modern day Churchill?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini

    I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.

    We really need a new sensible political party...
    Those 80 MPs are not simply Mogg's for the taking though - any bona fide Leave candidate will bid for them too.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,749
    MaxPB said:
    Flights to Heathrow from Aberdeen and Inverness, and even some from Edinburgh & Glasgow, are in danger of being squeezed out of their landing slots in favour of bigger, more lucrative flights.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini

    I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.

    We really need a new sensible political party...
    Those 80 MPs are not simply Mogg's for the taking though - any bona fide Leave candidate will bid for them too.
    Indeed.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2018

    I've been offered free tickets to Jezfest.

    That gives you 10 days to learn the words to Oh Jeremy Corbyn.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    TOPPING said:

    Out of curiosity does anyone have the ConHome polls for next leader or equivalent before Cameron resigned? Where was May on that list.

    I stand by believing the polls are utterly and completely meaningless until there's (A) a contest and (B) we know who's running.

    Yup.

    1 - Gove 30%

    2 - Boris 22%

    3 - May 16%

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/gove-tops-our-next-party-leader-survey-for-the-third-month-running.html
    So May was nowhere near runaway favourite and the fact that Mogg is topping the survey currently is utterly irrelevant then.
    Well d'uh....it's a POLL!!!

    :wink:
    It's not even really a poll, it's a self-selecting survey. Though the movements within it are worth noting.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,841
    sarissa said:

    MaxPB said:
    Flights to Heathrow from Aberdeen and Inverness, and even some from Edinburgh & Glasgow, are in danger of being squeezed out of their landing slots in favour of bigger, more lucrative flights.
    Well quite. Heathrow isn't competing with other airports within the UK (Well except Gatwick maybe), it is competing with Schipol.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2018
    Seems government position is Comcast bid for Sky is absolutely fine, 21CF bid will be accepted if they divest Sky News. But they can divest it to Disney, which is looking to take-over 21CF.

    So basically a fudge, that means little in reality. Disney can buy 21CF, which buys Sky, while selling Sky News to Disney.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    sarissa said:

    MaxPB said:
    Flights to Heathrow from Aberdeen and Inverness, and even some from Edinburgh & Glasgow, are in danger of being squeezed out of their landing slots in favour of bigger, more lucrative flights.
    Yup, and every foggy day in winter half the domestic BA flights get cancelled to keep the long haul schedule running. It’s something that likely affects a number of Scotland’s MPs directly.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,749
    Nigelb said:

    If the World Cup were being played here, I might be interested...
    https://i2.wp.com/thedockyards.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Stadium.jpeg

    Would be 'interesting' if they are drying fish on all those racks....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956

    NEW THREAD

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini

    I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.

    We really need a new sensible political party...
    Those 80 MPs are not simply Mogg's for the taking though - any bona fide Leave candidate will bid for them too.
    Whatever happens I suspect a vacuous platitude like Brexit means Brexit won't suffice next time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    currystar said:

    felix said:

    Well, stop being seen as the f*cking party of anti-semites then.... It's in your hands.
    Perhaps if Labour were seeing some electoral damage from the antisemite stuff it might concentrate their minds.

    That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
    I think it may partly explain the failure to break through - given the problems the government is having they ought to be miles ahead.
    What I find surprising is everyone talks about the terrible problems this Government is having and as such labour should be miles ahead. Have people not looked at just how well the economy is doing. When I left school in the early eighties unemployment was everywhere. Now there is basically full employment in this country which is a remarkable achievement. Perhaps that might be why the Government is holding up so well in opinion polls and at the recent Local Election.
    Well, maybe, but set against that you have the decline in living standards as prices have risen faster than pay.
    Probably better still is to look at per capita Gross Disposable Household Income, incorporating taxes and direct benefits. These are not inflation adjusted, but do give an indication of widespread stagnant or falling incomes. Even the best performing (Cambridge) is merely matching inflation. Tories saying "You have never had it so good" are not likely to get a positive hearing at the ballot box.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/regionalaccounts/grossdisposablehouseholdincome/bulletins/regionalgrossdisposablehouseholdincomegdhi/1997to2016
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,557

    HYUFD said:

    'There are about 80 MPs in the ERG which Mogg leads alone and he certainly fires up the base, if MPs force May out then do not be surprised if a serious PM is replaced by a populist PM in the mould of Trump or Salvini
    I have seen estimates that because memebers of the ERG have been promoted to Govt that the number is 125.'
    Indeed and Andrea Leadsom needed just 84 Tory MPs voting for her to get to the final 2 in 2016

    And theres less Tory MPs now then then ;)

    Fewer, please.


    Though I suppose lesser is also true in this context...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Seems government position is Comcast bid for Sky is absolutely fine, 21CF bid will be accepted if they divest Sky News. But they can divest it to Disney, which is looking to take-over 21CF.

    So basically a fudge, that means little in reality. Disney can buy 21CF, which buys Sky, while selling Sky News to Disney.

    But not the newspapers.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Mr. Eagles, interesting.

    It was decided after the Brent East by election that IDS had to go.

    There was a real fear that under IDS the Tories would finish third in next general election in share of the vote (if not seats).

    The ousting of IDS was meticulously planned.

    Likely contenders were told not to stand for the greater good.

    Within an hour of IDS losing the vote the likes of Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, and David Davis all endorsed the coronation of Michael Howard.
    I notice that the Tory vote in Brent East fell further in the 2005 GE.
    But nationally, Labour's majority was cut by three-fifths. Brent East was probably affected by a Lib Dem factor, given that Kennedy led his party to its highest general election return - 62 MPs on a 22% share - since 1923.
    All true, but I don't think the by election was that big a loss. It was just the excuse IDS's enemies were looking for.
    The by-election wasn't even that big a loss. In the post-Iraq circumstances, the LDs were always going to stand a chance. Given that it was over three months from then until the VoNC, did it really play that big a role? The plotting would have happened over the summer either way, though no doubt it helped sharpen minds (and knives).
    It's an object lesson in how the Lib Dems can come out of nowhere and then disappear. They held Brent East, and then Brent Central, from 2003-2015, and dominated local government in the constituency, and then they vanished.
    Indeed - a sad case. Undone by the hubris and vanity of Clegg and Cable who led them into the disasters of the coalition.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880

    Made me laugh inwardly, if not out loud.

    https://twitter.com/CrazyinRussia/status/1003940482404290560

    That is fucking balls. It’s a picture of a VAZ 2105. The car changed significantly from the 2101 to 2104, 2103, 2105 and 2107 models.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Foxy said:

    currystar said:

    felix said:

    Well, stop being seen as the f*cking party of anti-semites then.... It's in your hands.
    Perhaps if Labour were seeing some electoral damage from the antisemite stuff it might concentrate their minds.

    That is happening, right? I'm sure loads of people on here said it definitely would.
    I think it may partly explain the failure to break through - given the problems the government is having they ought to be miles ahead.
    What I find surprising is everyone talks about the terrible problems this Government is having and as such labour should be miles ahead. Have people not looked at just how well the economy is doing. When I left school in the early eighties unemployment was everywhere. Now there is basically full employment in this country which is a remarkable achievement. Perhaps that might be why the Government is holding up so well in opinion polls and at the recent Local Election.
    Well, maybe, but set against that you have the decline in living standards as prices have risen faster than pay.
    Probably better still is to look at per capita Gross Disposable Household Income, incorporating taxes and direct benefits. These are not inflation adjusted, but do give an indication of widespread stagnant or falling incomes. Even the best performing (Cambridge) is merely matching inflation. Tories saying "You have never had it so good" are not likely to get a positive hearing at the ballot box.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/regionalaccounts/grossdisposablehouseholdincome/bulletins/regionalgrossdisposablehouseholdincomegdhi/1997to2016
    The total salary bill has been growing a a faster rate than inflation - it's just that it is shared amongst an increasing number of people.

    Those who want individual salaries to increase need first to increase productivity.
This discussion has been closed.