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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A good day for backers of Michael Gove
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A good day for backers of Michael Gove
In the last 24 hours the major betting news has been Michael Gove becoming the favourite in the next Tory leader market, both Betfair and Ladbrokes have seen this shift.
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So basically a fudge, that means little in reality. Disney can buy 21CF, which buys Sky, while selling Sky News to Disney.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/02/10/if-not-may-then-who/
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1003990794083160064
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/browse/Michael_Gove
Gove also still trails Mogg in the ConHome members poll anyway and Javid is gaining on him fast
On Gove, yes keep him onside.
I actually don't think it will be Gove unless things move very quickly. Come August when what seems to be a disaster of a GCSE exam change is revealed I suspect his name won't be quite so popular
I’ve got £150 on him at 100/1 and above plus a decent wodge on him at 66/1
Keep an eye on Hammond. I know no-one likes him but depending on when May goes, looking like the only adult in the room might help. Otherwise, yes, Javid or Hunt. JRM can still be kingmaker so Gove cannot be ruled out completely.
https://thetradenews.com/uk-mp-no-bonfire-financial-regulations-post-brexit/
https://order-order.com/2018/06/05/deactivate/
Maomentumers will be laughing into their ethnically sources vegan friendly lattes...
The FCS, Team 2020, now this lot.
At least people got laid with Team 2020.
(No I didn’t. Join, I mean!)
I know I tipped him at 100/1 but a friend got 350/1 on Betfair and I wouldn’t be able to cope in that game of oneupmanship.
https://twitter.com/VirendraSharma/status/976413750944202753
Gove
Gove on your side
Cos you got Gove
Gove
Gove on your side
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N66cGvR5yvU
All lays:
Jacob Rees-Mogg 6.64 £73.00 £412.00
Boris Johnson 12.85 £6.57 £77.84
Andrea Leadsom 25.00 £3.55 £85.20
David Miliband 96.76 £4.87 £466.33
Nigel Farage 400.00 £1.00 £399.00
I am currently trying to back John McDonnell at 890-1, though sadly noone has taken up my £2.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1004001464623263745
This isn't particularly difficult stuff.
Corbyn is either being deliberately thick or trying to face both ways at once, probably both.
Congressman David Cicilline, a Democratic representative for Rhode Island, made the allegation following a report that Facebook gave Apple, Samsung and other firms "deep access" to its user data as part of a data-sharing partnership.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/mark-zuckerberg-facebook-data-scandal-lied-congress-david-cicilline-a8384261.html
Zuckerberg is getting the hang of this politics lark.
https://twitter.com/RogerJ_01/status/1003959191655022592
https://twitter.com/MENnewsdesk/status/1004014267690049536
Q: How does an elephant ask for a cream bun?
A: *put your arm in front of your face and waggle your hand in the face of the child of all ages* Can I have a cream bun please?
Gavin Williamson looks as though he's about to be asked for a cream bun.
https://tradingeconomics.com/italy/government-bond-yield
And to think I voted for him back in the day.
He should have arranged for a Transport Summit meeting, held in the north, for last weekend, and demanded the chief execs and operations directors of the affected companies attend, together with other interested parties, and banged some heads together.
As well as actually doing some good, he would have been seen to be doing something.
Instead, he's just given the green light to several more billions being spent in and around London, which will be tremendous consolation to a Manchester commuter on a class 142.
On-topic: if Javid became PM, then announced he'd converted to Judaism, watching the reaction of the cult would be faintly hilarious.
If the remainers are not able to reconcile themselves to any kind of Brexit after that (and there would only be a handful, nothing like the 300 from Con/Lab you mention) then I expect a time limited compromise and an election in 2020 to completely sideline them and take advantage of Corbyn still being Labour leader.
They introduced the timetable change whilst Liverpool and a few other stations are closed.
Plus the drivers aren't yet fully trained on the new trains/routes.
As someone who commutes to Manchester daily and most of my staff commute in using Northern it is stressful.
There's been a few life threatening situations as the platforms are heaving full of people waiting for cancelled/delayed trains and arriving trains have a load of passengers wishing to get off.
Fortunately I used Trans Pennine Express
The outline services to be run are agreed in advance (often at franchise time) between the DfT, the operator and Network Rail. In this case, there was going to be a large alteration to the timetables country-wide due to new trains and improved infrastructure allowing new routes. It is then up to Network Rail to devise the timetables.
New timetables come in in December and May, with the latter ('summer') timetable usually being bigger changes. TOCs are usually given three or so months notice of the broad-brush new timetable, so they can train staff up for the changes.
However in Northern's case, Network Rail mucked up the infrastructure improvements. This meant the overworked small timetabling team were making alterations to the timetable a week or two before it was due to come in. And because the infrastructure was not ready, Northern could not train the staff on the routes. (And now some guesswork: the constantly-changing emergency timetables they bought in duriing the first two weeks of chaos probably didn't help).
I have much sympathy with Northern, who really are not architects of the mess they find themselves in. The situation with GTR down south is roughly similar, but with detail differences that can be laid more at GTR's door.
The DfT are much to blame. In particular, leaving not enough time between scheduled infrastructure completion and the new services running. In another recent case during Chester, they finished the infrastructure and will be running first services over it in six months. But allegedly they wanted to show off the money they'd spent on that shiny new infrastructure...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1004031772743602176
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/northern-trains-cancelled-manchester-burnham-14678174
Javid has already spoken out against the customs union, a few times so that will help win over the moderate sceptics (which make up the majority of the MPs and members) and enough of the ERG to not put forwards a challenge despite coming out for remain, IMO.
I also think getting Hammond out of number 11 (and Gove in) would count as a huge win for the ERG, which is why if Javid and Gove run a joint ticket they get most of the party behind them.
If I'm reading that correctly, 60% of the possible cancellations went ahead, which means that 40% did run. If they cancelled all of the list then that piece of scum would be complaining about unnecessary cancellations.
Of course they'll be thinking about what services may be cut: but they don't *know* if they'll run or not.
At least that's my reading of that.
One to think about.
We have already seen the likely route the City will take to Brexit - https://thetradenews.com/uk-mp-no-bonfire-financial-regulations-post-brexit/
And the pressure to do similar things all over will be as high with Javid as with May. Gove in No. 11 does I agree help the ERG but again his principles have been shown to be flaky at best.
Hammond is really steady as you go and that is not what is needed if this country is to maintain its dynamism.
Javid has worried me for a bit because he has often seemed a little lacking in critical analysis of a problem or substance (he was disappointing at Business) but he would be a better frontman choice than Gove. The ideal would be if Javid/Gove could get Osborne back inside the tent as well. We are desperately short of real talent in front line politics in this country.
May and Hammond need to win big next week on all of these votes. If they don't their time may well be up.