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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polling that should give great succour to Trump

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  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,318
    notme said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    She is. Well worth it in the next leader stakes.
    Is anyone not concerned how so quickly abortion has become a party political issue? A political wedge to attack the government?

    We know why, it’s easy to know the government vulnerability with its DUP alliance. But abortion has always been outside the party politics and a matter of conscious for individual members of Parliament. How we mocked it being a vicious dividing line in American identity politics.

    It looks to me that it’s becoming a dividing line over here now also. Stella Creasy is at the forefront of that.
    Did you read the article? The point was that she's been successful by NOT using it as a vehicle to attack the government.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,879
    Sean_F said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    I get adverts relating to baldness.

    I did once get an advert for cougars seeking younger men.
    AIUI they are not just predicated on browsing history; the page(s) the ads are on also has some relevance. So if this thread is kept going long enough for the ad company to scan it, and enough of us all say 'cougars seeking young men', then we can all share in that glory. ;)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    It's Trumps third term that we have to worry about.

    Trump's detractors are softening. Was a time they worried about a single term, lasting a thousand years....
    Pence is scarier than Trump is many respects.
    A smart piece of succession planning by Trump, that has assured there have been no assassination attempts on him....
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    edited June 2018

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,318

    Jonathan said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    2027 GE?
    Isn’t she a Momentum hate figure (not that that’s a bad thing)?
    It's one of those national vs local Momentum things - there's a very active local branch who would probably be up for reselection, but the national campaign isn't, and in general she's steered clear of factionalism and focused on campaigns like FOBTs, high-interest lending and abortion where backbenchers can make real progress.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    edited June 2018
    Mr. kle4, definitely agree on The Witcher 3. Inquisition was too heavy on fetch quests and busy-work.

    Mr. Mark, Charles II reportedly said to his brother James:
    Nobody is going to murder me to make you king.

    Edited extra bit: Kingdom Come Deliverance also had a very good approach to quests and consequences, although was rather bug-ridden.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Eagles, I'm poor. To help foster interfaith communal feeling, I would be willing to accept your money :D
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    2027 GE?
    Isn’t she a Momentum hate figure (not that that’s a bad thing)?
    It's one of those national vs local Momentum things - there's a very active local branch who would probably be up for reselection, but the national campaign isn't, and in general she's steered clear of factionalism and focused on campaigns like FOBTs, high-interest lending and abortion where backbenchers can make real progress.
    Oh come on, the Momentum folk actively campaign against her. The stuff on social media is nasty.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,879
    Way off-topic:

    My son was just watching LittleBabyBum nursery rhymes on the TV. YouTube, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play a nearly five-minute long advert for beard waxing or somesuch in the middle.

    We hear a great deal about the money that Google, Facebook etc spend on AI research. Since their bread-and-butter business is ad placement, it's clear that their 'AI' on ads is very artificial and not very intelligent ...
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Way off-topic:

    My son was just watching LittleBabyBum nursery rhymes on the TV. YouTube, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play a nearly five-minute long advert for beard waxing or somesuch in the middle.

    We hear a great deal about the money that Google, Facebook etc spend on AI research. Since their bread-and-butter business is ad placement, it's clear that their 'AI' on ads is very artificial and not very intelligent ...

    My daughters love LittleBabyBum.

    Maybe the beard advert was for you and not your son?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,200
    edited June 2018

    Jonathan said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    2027 GE?
    Isn’t she a Momentum hate figure (not that that’s a bad thing)?
    It's one of those national vs local Momentum things - there's a very active local branch who would probably be up for reselection, but the national campaign isn't, and in general she's steered clear of factionalism and focused on campaigns like FOBTs, high-interest lending and abortion where backbenchers can make real progress.
    Nick hi saw your piece on what next for Lab. V interesting. Must say I was shocked (shocked I tell you) to hear that the Labour Party would move to a de facto reunification of Ireland. And you say "the Ulster Unionists wouldn't like it"....I'll say: exactly the same naive thinking that says "let's just put customs posts all along the border between NI & RoI".
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609

    Mr. kle4, definitely agree on The Witcher 3. Inquisition was too heavy on fetch quests and busy-work.

    Mr. Mark, Charles II reportedly said to his brother James:
    Nobody is going to murder me to make you king.

    Edited extra bit: Kingdom Come Deliverance also had a very good approach to quests and consequences, although was rather bug-ridden.

    Character and lore are why I love dragon age so much. I even like 2.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Way off-topic:

    My son was just watching LittleBabyBum nursery rhymes on the TV. YouTube, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play a nearly five-minute long advert for beard waxing or somesuch in the middle.

    We hear a great deal about the money that Google, Facebook etc spend on AI research. Since their bread-and-butter business is ad placement, it's clear that their 'AI' on ads is very artificial and not very intelligent ...

    Well, it worked. You noticed and now are reporting it here. Everyone is now off to get waxed.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243

    Mr. Eagles, I'm poor. To help foster interfaith communal feeling, I would be willing to accept your money :D

    You’ll have to speak to my mother. I give her the money and she distrubes it.

    I have no input on where the money goes.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. kle4, the world of Dragon Age is really interesting, although they did a full 180 on the Qunari. In Origins, Sten asks Morrigan if she thinks she's a man just because she's a woman who fights. In Inquisition, Iron Bull is all about transgender rights and giving lectures even if you ask perfectly innocuous questions.

    Also not a fan of the Bioware approach to DLC. I'll probably not buy the next game right away. See if there's a GOTY.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    Now those adds for Russian brides make more sense.....
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Eagles, ha. That doesn't seem very fair.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095


    Mr. Mark, Charles II reportedly said to his brother James:
    Nobody is going to murder me to make you king.

    And nobody had Trump down as a student of history.

    (Well, he can't be a worse student of history than TSE....)

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543
    Sean_F said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    I get adverts relating to baldness.

    I did once get an advert for cougars seeking younger men.
    I just had to look up 'cougar' as I realised it was unlikely to be an inter-species thing! Another new one on me - still as I am 57, I am clearly not in the target audience.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,543

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    And there in a nutshell is a summary of the major taxation question facing the country.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Mark, hehehe.

    Mr. Eagles, in medieval times, taxation was done on assets on a similar basis (but a higher rate, though such taxation grants were irregular). More common was a set of tolls (from wharfage to pavage, stallage and murage etc) and, under John, rinsing the knightly class for scutage (money paid in lieu of military service).

    Wrote a blog, which may be of interest, here: https://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2017/10/medieval-taxation.html
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,879

    Way off-topic:

    My son was just watching LittleBabyBum nursery rhymes on the TV. YouTube, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play a nearly five-minute long advert for beard waxing or somesuch in the middle.

    We hear a great deal about the money that Google, Facebook etc spend on AI research. Since their bread-and-butter business is ad placement, it's clear that their 'AI' on ads is very artificial and not very intelligent ...

    My daughters love LittleBabyBum.

    Maybe the beard advert was for you and not your son?
    LBB is like crack cocaine for toddlers.

    I'm not bearded, and I never grow a beard long enough to get beyond the exceptionally-scruffy look I'm going for. ;)
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,799
    An unremitting catalogue of Brexit woe on the thread headers over the weekend.

    And yet, I cannot shake a thought that the Brexit outcome the enthusiasts promised is somehow within reach. It doesn't really with everything, it is not my opinion, it is more like having an annoyingly bullish woodpecker on my shoulder.

    The current version says that the UK is driving the obsession with the Irish border in order to drive better SM and customs access than would otherwise be the case, without ceding either FoM or contributions. At least some of the rows within the Tories are stage managed to this effect - Boris has always been plausibly deniable and is more than happy to be allowed, JRM is behaving like a chief whip to the Brexiteers.

    But, the Irish hand is overplayable, and enough thngs point against this direction that prevent my adopting it as my own standpoint.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,879
    Jonathan said:

    Way off-topic:

    My son was just watching LittleBabyBum nursery rhymes on the TV. YouTube, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play a nearly five-minute long advert for beard waxing or somesuch in the middle.

    We hear a great deal about the money that Google, Facebook etc spend on AI research. Since their bread-and-butter business is ad placement, it's clear that their 'AI' on ads is very artificial and not very intelligent ...

    Well, it worked. You noticed and now are reporting it here. Everyone is now off to get waxed.
    Mrs J was watching it with him. I can assure you she doesn't need her beard waxing ... ;)
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Pro_Rata said:

    An unremitting catalogue of Brexit woe on the thread headers over the weekend.

    And yet, I cannot shake a thought that the Brexit outcome the enthusiasts promised is somehow within reach. It doesn't really with everything, it is not my opinion, it is more like having an annoyingly bullish woodpecker on my shoulder.

    The current version says that the UK is driving the obsession with the Irish border in order to drive better SM and customs access than would otherwise be the case, without ceding either FoM or contributions. At least some of the rows within the Tories are stage managed to this effect - Boris has always been plausibly deniable and is more than happy to be allowed, JRM is behaving like a chief whip to the Brexiteers.

    But, the Irish hand is overplayable, and enough thngs point against this direction that prevent my adopting it as my own standpoint.

    Nurse, NURSE!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    edited June 2018

    Mr. Eagles, ha. That doesn't seem very fair.

    It’s like the bloody mafia and their protection money.

    My mother points out I’m a very bad Muslim and this is a way of making things even.

    Plus she says if I’ve got money to gamble then I’ve got enough money to pay the zakat.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    Sean_F said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    I get adverts relating to baldness.

    I did once get an advert for cougars seeking younger men.
    I just had to look up 'cougar' as I realised it was unlikely to be an inter-species thing! Another new one on me - still as I am 57, I am clearly not in the target audience.
    You very much are, if the cougar is 70+.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

    Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.

    Germany (I think Schroeder) insisted.

    Do you remember we used to have the G7+1 before it became the G8?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,701

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It's an early sign of what AI has in store for us.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,817
    Morning all :)

    Vaguely on topic - the "supporters" are always there. There are people who think Jeremy Corbyn is fantastic and those who believe Theresa May is a great Prime Minister.

    Had this site existed in April 1997, you can be sure there would have been contributions from those praising John Major to the skies, telling us the polls were wrong and "the people I speak to think John is great, has done really well for the country and deserves another five years as Prime Minister while no one trusts or likes Blair"
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,035

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    Is that net or gross ?

    And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

    I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Roger said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    At least they'll be able to drive across the border now rather than having to get on a plane or boat. Some progress in towards the 21st century.
    errr

    no Roger.

    RoI doesn't have the NHS, it has health insurance or pay the doctor.

    Last estimate I saw was an abortion would cost about 900 Euros. You can get a return flight to any UK city for about £60. Economics rule.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,834

    Mr. Eagles, ha. That doesn't seem very fair.

    It’s like the bloody mafia and their protection money.

    My mother points out I’m a very bad Muslim and this is a way of making things even.

    Plus she says if I’ve got money to gamble then I’ve got enough money to pay the zakat.
    And your mum is of course completely right. Unless you want to spend the Eid holidays arguing with her about it, just pay up and smile!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    Is that net or gross ?

    And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

    I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?
    Surely any charity can have tax claimed back? Isn't that what Gift Aid etc is about?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    Is that net or gross ?

    And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

    I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?
    Gross.

    There are Islamic charities, the years we give to them we gift aid it.

    But most years my Mum and her friends distribute it to people they know who are in need.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,817
    Ever since the demise of the 89p Shop in East Ham High Street, I've become convinced it's a cut-throat world in discount retailing and it appears Pound World may be on the brink.

    East Ham High Street may be atypical but you can be sure if Pound World Plus vacates its double front site (formerly occupied by Peacocks) something else will take its place. We have a German Doner Kebab restaurant which has opened recently and the British Heart Foundation are opening a charity shop in ten days.

    The Hills betting shop swiftly became a Savers so wither the High Street ? I suspect not, at least round here.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    Mr. Mark, hehehe.

    Mr. Eagles, in medieval times, taxation was done on assets on a similar basis (but a higher rate, though such taxation grants were irregular). More common was a set of tolls (from wharfage to pavage, stallage and murage etc) and, under John, rinsing the knightly class for scutage (money paid in lieu of military service).

    Wrote a blog, which may be of interest, here: https://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2017/10/medieval-taxation.html

    Tenants in chief could be rinsed in various ways. Rather like serfs, they had to pay a fine to their lord, in this case, the King, when they inherited land; they could also pay a fine if they married without his consent; most disliked of all, the King was the legal guardian of all tenants in chief who were minors, and could marry them off as he wished, enjoy most of the income from their estates till they reached adulthood, and sell the right to guardianship.

    Knighthood was an expensive honour. Some men remained squires all their lives, essentially professional cavalrymen, because they didn't want it.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,035

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    Is that net or gross ?

    And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

    I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?
    Surely any charity can have tax claimed back? Isn't that what Gift Aid etc is about?
    They can but there are registrations and regulations about charities.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    stodge said:

    Ever since the demise of the 89p Shop in East Ham High Street, I've become convinced it's a cut-throat world in discount retailing and it appears Pound World may be on the brink.

    East Ham High Street may be atypical but you can be sure if Pound World Plus vacates its double front site (formerly occupied by Peacocks) something else will take its place. We have a German Doner Kebab restaurant which has opened recently and the British Heart Foundation are opening a charity shop in ten days.

    The Hills betting shop swiftly became a Savers so wither the High Street ? I suspect not, at least round here.

    BHF can survive where other shops may not because they don't pay business rates.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    Is that net or gross ?

    And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

    I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?
    Surely any charity can have tax claimed back? Isn't that what Gift Aid etc is about?
    They can but there are registrations and regulations about charities.
    Well indeed registered charities.

    Giving money to your mate won't get the tax back.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    Is that net or gross ?

    And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

    I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?
    Gross.

    There are Islamic charities, the years we give to them we gift aid it.

    But most years my Mum and her friends distribute it to people they know who are in need.
    Are you doing the whole fasting thing, or giving it a miss on health grounds ?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,035

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    Is that net or gross ?

    And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

    I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?
    Gross.

    There are Islamic charities, the years we give to them we gift aid it.

    But most years my Mum and her friends distribute it to people they know who are in need.
    Thanks.

    Is it a female dominated tradition ?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    On approval ratings, Truman won in 1948 with his at 36% in the spring.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. F, indeed. That's why John formally ordered everyone with over £40 (or £40 a year income, I forget) to turn up at such-and-such a place to be knighted. So he could extort scutage out of them.

    He really was a bloody awful king.
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    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Pulpstar said:

    On approval ratings, Truman won in 1948 with his at 36% in the spring.

    On the other hand, Truman wasn't an emotionally unstable moron. Trump's ratings are being kept up from collapse by the strong economy. If there is a recession between now and 2020 - highly likely - then Trump will get demolished.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    2027 GE?
    Isn’t she a Momentum hate figure (not that that’s a bad thing)?
    It's one of those national vs local Momentum things - there's a very active local branch who would probably be up for reselection, but the national campaign isn't, and in general she's steered clear of factionalism and focused on campaigns like FOBTs, high-interest lending and abortion where backbenchers can make real progress.
    Oh come on, the Momentum folk actively campaign against her. The stuff on social media is nasty.
    A pity about Corbyn....with a half decent Labour leader we could be watching the final collapse of the Tory Party as the Referendum result is subtly reversed. The right wing press without the barking brigade would be emasculated. The EU with Brexit reversed would be invigorated and we'd have a government with the bottle to give Trump the Golden Shower he deserves.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,200
    Elliot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On approval ratings, Truman won in 1948 with his at 36% in the spring.

    On the other hand, Truman wasn't an emotionally unstable moron. Trump's ratings are being kept up from collapse by the strong economy. If there is a recession between now and 2020 - highly likely - then Trump will get demolished.
    How much credit/blame to you allocate to Trump for the economy being strong?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    Is that net or gross ?

    And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

    I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?
    Gross.

    There are Islamic charities, the years we give to them we gift aid it.

    But most years my Mum and her friends distribute it to people they know who are in need.
    Are you doing the whole fasting thing, or giving it a miss on health grounds ?
    I observe Ramadan from afar due to the catalogue of meds I have to take.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Roger, point of order: if Labour had been led by someone pro-EU then the referendum result would probably have gone the other way.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    Roger said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    Creasy is great . Underused at the moment . Next Labour PM material.
    2027 GE?
    Isn’t she a Momentum hate figure (not that that’s a bad thing)?
    It's one of those national vs local Momentum things - there's a very active local branch who would probably be up for reselection, but the national campaign isn't, and in general she's steered clear of factionalism and focused on campaigns like FOBTs, high-interest lending and abortion where backbenchers can make real progress.
    Oh come on, the Momentum folk actively campaign against her. The stuff on social media is nasty.
    A pity about Corbyn....with a half decent Labour leader we could be watching the final collapse of the Tory Party as the Referendum result is subtly reversed. The right wing press without the barking brigade would be emasculated. The EU with Brexit reversed would be invigorated and we'd have a government with the bottle to give Trump the Golden Shower he deserves.
    Brown in his pomp as opposition spokesperson would have been taking this shower to pieces in the House.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Wonder why the site is giving me adds urging me to send my Zakat and Sadaqah to Islamic Relief?

    Ads are predicated on your browsing history!

    That is what is bemusing me!
    It might be my fault.

    My annual zakat payment is due this week and I’m moaning as usual.

    I have to give 2.5% of my wealth to the poor.

    Bunch of bloody layabouts.

    Last year I ended up paying for someone’s wedding.
    How is your wealth defined?
    2.5% of your assets less any debts on those assets.

    However I give 2.5% of my salary instead as a mortgage free homeowner my mother realises she’d be taking money from her grandkids if I paid the 2.5% on assets.
    Is that net or gross ?

    And if net are you able to claim the tax back on it ?

    I'm being serious - there is Islamic style banking is there also Islamic style charity giving ?
    Gross.

    There are Islamic charities, the years we give to them we gift aid it.

    But most years my Mum and her friends distribute it to people they know who are in need.
    Thanks.

    Is it a female dominated tradition ?
    In wider Islam it isn’t it, but with Pakistani heritage families it is.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On approval ratings, Truman won in 1948 with his at 36% in the spring.

    On the other hand, Truman wasn't an emotionally unstable moron. Trump's ratings are being kept up from collapse by the strong economy. If there is a recession between now and 2020 - highly likely - then Trump will get demolished.
    How much credit/blame to you allocate to Trump for the economy being strong?
    Close to zero imho. The tax cut may have helped a bit. But that will come back to haunt him.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On approval ratings, Truman won in 1948 with his at 36% in the spring.

    On the other hand, Truman wasn't an emotionally unstable moron. Trump's ratings are being kept up from collapse by the strong economy. If there is a recession between now and 2020 - highly likely - then Trump will get demolished.
    How much credit/blame to you allocate to Trump for the economy being strong?
    The economy is one of those things where doing it well takes time and doing it badly can be done rapidly. Trump didn't do anything in his first year to screw it up, but let's see what happens with his trade wars.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    stodge said:

    We have a German Doner Kebab restaurant which has opened recently and the British Heart Foundation are opening a charity shop in ten days.

    Ten days too late.....

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2018
    The “Jewish Voice for Labour” group that has rubbished claims of anti-Semitism in the party was formed by a number of "totally secular" individuals who "identified as Jewish" in order to defend Jeremy Corbyn, its co-chairman has suggested.

    Do they only identify as Jewish on wednesdays?
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2018
    Looking at that poll of Labour members from a few months ago, it’s hard to believe they would back Creasy.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140

    Looking at that poll of Labour members from a few months ago, it’s hard to believe they would back Creasy.

    I think we are talking at some future date. Way in the future, relatively. Once one of Gordon Brown's "phases" has passed.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Roger said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    At least they'll be able to drive across the border now rather than having to get on a plane or boat. Some progress in towards the 21st century.
    errr

    no Roger.

    RoI doesn't have the NHS, it has health insurance or pay the doctor.

    Last estimate I saw was an abortion would cost about 900 Euros. You can get a return flight to any UK city for about £60. Economics rule.
    900 euros for an abortion! As you say free enterprise...a small caravan will open up at the border and abracadabra a new little industry will form. Probably Polish or German.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    Mr. F, indeed. That's why John formally ordered everyone with over £40 (or £40 a year income, I forget) to turn up at such-and-such a place to be knighted. So he could extort scutage out of them.

    He really was a bloody awful king.

    It was well that he died when he did, otherwise we'd have had King Louis. He didn't just lose most of his French lands, he also lost most of England.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140

    The “Jewish Voice for Labour” group that has rubbished claims of anti-Semitism in the party was formed by a number of "totally secular" individuals who "identified as Jewish" in order to defend Jeremy Corbyn, its co-chairman has suggested.

    Do they only identify as Jewish on wednesdays?

    How many cults in history have ended well?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    A pity about Corbyn....with a half decent Labour leader we could be watching the final collapse of the Tory Party as the Referendum result is subtly reversed. The right wing press without the barking brigade would be emasculated. The EU with Brexit reversed would be invigorated and we'd have a government with the bottle to give Trump the Golden Shower he deserves.

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006093418597109760

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006097378561183744

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006098304571183105
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    At least they'll be able to drive across the border now rather than having to get on a plane or boat. Some progress in towards the 21st century.
    errr

    no Roger.

    RoI doesn't have the NHS, it has health insurance or pay the doctor.

    Last estimate I saw was an abortion would cost about 900 Euros. You can get a return flight to any UK city for about £60. Economics rule.
    900 euros for an abortion! As you say free enterprise...a small caravan will open up at the border and abracadabra a new little industry will form. Probably Polish or German.
    nah this is Ulster

    a catholic caravan will open to do proddies FOC and vice versa
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Ms. Apocalypse, any contender does need a certain number of MPs to back them, though. I'd guess a Continuity Corbyn candidate would get that, but a better informed Labour person might be able to give us a firmer answer.

    Mr. F, indeed. Dying was the greatest service John ever did for England.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,311
    rcs1000 said:

    As an aside, what's with Trump obsession with Russia?

    Brazil definitely has a larger economy, and South Korea, Spain and Australia are all pretty much level with it. If you were going to invite the ten - economically - largest democracies, it's by no means clear that Russia makes the cut.

    Because that's where his funding comes from ?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,147

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    I was out all day yesterday but wanted to thank you for your interesting thread header. I think a Labour government would find it a bit harder than you suppose to come to a deal with the EU but nonetheless an interesting header. And I agree that the tone would be likely very different and may make things easier.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,200
    Cyclefree said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    I was out all day yesterday but wanted to thank you for your interesting thread header. I think a Labour government would find it a bit harder than you suppose to come to a deal with the EU but nonetheless an interesting header. And I agree that the tone would be likely very different and may make things easier.
    Sadly, Nick's Lab blueprint would reignite The Troubles as effectively as putting fortified border posts along the internal border.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2018
    @rottenborough It’ll be interesting to see if the membership do change their thinking, so that a more moderate candidate could win. IIRC Labour members notably had a negative opinion on American influence in the world, and with Trump in power right now and what he’s doing it’s hard to see how that view goes away. His presidency has the potential to simply harden their views of American influence. I say this because more moderate candidates tend to be much more pro America than Corbyn is.
    Scott_P said:

    Roger said:

    A pity about Corbyn....with a half decent Labour leader we could be watching the final collapse of the Tory Party as the Referendum result is subtly reversed. The right wing press without the barking brigade would be emasculated. The EU with Brexit reversed would be invigorated and we'd have a government with the bottle to give Trump the Golden Shower he deserves.

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006093418597109760

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006097378561183744

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006098304571183105
    Given this is the case, it’s even more startling that Corbyn appears more liked/less disliked with under 40s than other political figures who are much more pro-Remain. For example, I can’t see Chuka Umunna et al exciting these voters that Corbyn’s got, even though he’s much more in step with them on this issue than Corbyn ever has been.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,147
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Nice piece about one of my favourite MPs (no not a Corbynite in this case - and Soubry shows up well here too) and how backbenchers can make change happen when the mood is right::

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/10/stella-creasy-abortion-law-campaign-practical-politics-at-its-best

    I was out all day yesterday but wanted to thank you for your interesting thread header. I think a Labour government would find it a bit harder than you suppose to come to a deal with the EU but nonetheless an interesting header. And I agree that the tone would be likely very different and may make things easier.
    Sadly, Nick's Lab blueprint would reignite The Troubles as effectively as putting fortified border posts along the internal border.
    Very possibly. Hence my reference to “a bit harder” in my post. But I didn’t want to reignite yesterday’s debate.

    I saw Stella Creasy at an IQ debate. Quite impressive, though a little too inclined to claim that morality lay only on the Labour side. It would improve debate - and public policy - no end if people accepted that arguingabout means does not mean that you disagree about ends.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,311


    Mr. Mark, Charles II reportedly said to his brother James:
    Nobody is going to murder me to make you king.

    And nobody had Trump down as a student of history.

    (Well, he can't be a worse student of history than TSE....)

    He's old enough to remember Nixon and Spiro T.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2018

    ydoethur said:

    With regard to Sky, I look forward to the day when all TV is online via subscription and no advertising can be shown.

    That will royally and amusingly shaft Sky and the BBC.

    Why on Earth would that ever happen?

    Be good to see BBC become optional rather than something we're compelled to pay for though.
    BBC (or licence payers') money is being used or misused to fund so-called local television. It turns out no-one watches these stations, but the BBC must pay for each news story submitted, whether broadcast or not. What could go wrong?
    https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/revealed-how-britains-biggest-local-tv-company-has-gamed
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,311
    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On approval ratings, Truman won in 1948 with his at 36% in the spring.

    On the other hand, Truman wasn't an emotionally unstable moron. Trump's ratings are being kept up from collapse by the strong economy. If there is a recession between now and 2020 - highly likely - then Trump will get demolished.
    How much credit/blame to you allocate to Trump for the economy being strong?
    That's surely irrelevant - it's what the electorate think about it.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    @rottenborough It’ll be interesting to see if the membership do change their thinking, so that a more moderate candidate could win. IIRC Labour members notably had a negative opinion on American influence in the world, and with Trump in power right now and what he’s doing it’s hard to see how that view goes away. His presidency has the potential to simply harden their views of American influence. I say this because more moderate candidates tend to be much more pro America than Corbyn is.

    Scott_P said:

    Roger said:

    A pity about Corbyn....with a half decent Labour leader we could be watching the final collapse of the Tory Party as the Referendum result is subtly reversed. The right wing press without the barking brigade would be emasculated. The EU with Brexit reversed would be invigorated and we'd have a government with the bottle to give Trump the Golden Shower he deserves.

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006093418597109760

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006097378561183744

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1006098304571183105
    Given this is the case, it’s even more startling that Corbyn appears more liked/less disliked with under 40s than other political figures who are much more pro-Remain. For example, I can’t see Chuka Umunna et al exciting these voters that Corbyn’s got, even though he’s much more in step with them on this issue than Corbyn ever has been.
    The great irony of our times.
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    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    The spring that produces Vittel is drying up.

    Now Nestle want to tell the locals they must use a lot less water

    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/aws-zertifizierung-nestle-will-sich-um-seine-quellen-kuemmern-15632922.html
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,701

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Since electors in the US consider themselves:
    Republican 26%
    Democrat 29%
    Independent 43%

    you can probably remove 'Traditional' from your statement.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,311
    For those interested in F1, an explanation for Hamilton's strangely early stop, and why he ran faster in the second half of the race;
    https://www.racefans.net/2018/06/10/hamilton-thought-engine-was-going-to-blow-start-f1/
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,311
    edited June 2018

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    The same goes for congressional and gubernatorial candidates...
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/10/mark-sanford-primary-trump-south-carolina-635357

    The zanier elements of the base might be in for a shock come November. If not, the long term future of the party is in doubt.


    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him...


    Don't neglect the possibility of 3) He decides not to run again.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.

    Has to be a good chance the trade war will have at least one high profile US casualty
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    (b) is much more likely. The US is a country in relative international decline and there is nothing that they can really do about that: it's a function of numbers (just as the rise of the US was). That is going to cause all sorts of difficulties as it adjusts and as challenges rise that it is less-well placed to deal with. Populists with simple answers to complex problems will always be superficially attractive.

    That said, the extent to which the top 1% have creamed off the new wealth generated since the 1980s is something that the US could do something about - though not Trump and probably not any likely GOP populist. A populist on the left, however, particularly if he or she could lead a transformation in the voting habits of Democrat primary voters and so transform to nature of the Dems in the House, could do very well on a redistributive platform.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    (b) is much more likely. The US is a country in relative international decline and there is nothing that they can really do about that: it's a function of numbers (just as the rise of the US was). That is going to cause all sorts of difficulties as it adjusts and as challenges rise that it is less-well placed to deal with. Populists with simple answers to complex problems will always be superficially attractive.

    That said, the extent to which the top 1% have creamed off the new wealth generated since the 1980s is something that the US could do something about - though not Trump and probably not any likely GOP populist. A populist on the left, however, particularly if he or she could lead a transformation in the voting habits of Democrat primary voters and so transform to nature of the Dems in the House, could do very well on a redistributive platform.
    If Malaysia can elect a 92 yr old, maybe Bernie Sanders isn't too old after all.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    The US is the most advanced case in the Western world, but the UK has been going in the same direction. The working class feel they are being exploited by the very rich from above and undercut by newly arriving migrants from below. The Right doesn't like addressing the first and the Left doesn't like addressing the second. Any government that visibly combines a tight immigration policy with clamping down on the corporate class would win a big landslide.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    (b) is much more likely. The US is a country in relative international decline and there is nothing that they can really do about that: it's a function of numbers (just as the rise of the US was). That is going to cause all sorts of difficulties as it adjusts and as challenges rise that it is less-well placed to deal with. Populists with simple answers to complex problems will always be superficially attractive.

    That said, the extent to which the top 1% have creamed off the new wealth generated since the 1980s is something that the US could do something about - though not Trump and probably not any likely GOP populist. A populist on the left, however, particularly if he or she could lead a transformation in the voting habits of Democrat primary voters and so transform to nature of the Dems in the House, could do very well on a redistributive platform.
    I'm not convinced, although hope you are correct. It feels more to me that as the economics gets worse, certainly for the left behind, then the importance of 'values', 'strong community', cohesion etc etc will come more to the fore.

    It's the Trump+ candidate we need to start worrying about.

    (Assuming Trump himself doesn't start WW3, which is not a given by a long shot).
  • Options
    PurplePurple Posts: 150
    Justin Trudeau may be under fire from the Trump-Pepe-Russia Today machine. The eyebrow story!
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Nigelb said:


    Don't neglect the possibility of 3) He decides not to run again.

    Obama did two, it's hard to see Trump voluntarily settling for one.

    It's also almost impossible to imagine him passing up the opportunity for four more years of consequence-free stealing.
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Nigelb said:


    Don't neglect the possibility of 3) He decides not to run again.

    Obama did two, it's hard to see Trump voluntarily settling for one.

    It's also almost impossible to imagine him passing up the opportunity for four more years of consequence-free stealing.
    Agreed, but he might be shocked at the consequences that hit after he loses.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    (b) is much more likely. The US is a country in relative international decline and there is nothing that they can really do about that: it's a function of numbers (just as the rise of the US was). That is going to cause all sorts of difficulties as it adjusts and as challenges rise that it is less-well placed to deal with. Populists with simple answers to complex problems will always be superficially attractive.

    That said, the extent to which the top 1% have creamed off the new wealth generated since the 1980s is something that the US could do something about - though not Trump and probably not any likely GOP populist. A populist on the left, however, particularly if he or she could lead a transformation in the voting habits of Democrat primary voters and so transform to nature of the Dems in the House, could do very well on a redistributive platform.
    If Malaysia can elect a 92 yr old, maybe Bernie Sanders isn't too old after all.
    A 92 year old who'd done it before....for 22 years.....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Elliot said:

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    The US is the most advanced case in the Western world, but the UK has been going in the same direction. The working class feel they are being exploited by the very rich from above and undercut by newly arriving migrants from below. The Right doesn't like addressing the first and the Left doesn't like addressing the second. Any government that visibly combines a tight immigration policy with clamping down on the corporate class would win a big landslide.
    Hence in the UK we had UKIP, Brexit and Corbyn, in the USA we had Trump and Sanders, in France they have Le Pen and Melenchon, in Italy they have a coalition government between the anti austerity Five Star and the anti migration Lega Nord and in New Zealand there is a coalition government between Labour and New Zealand First
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Here's a man with a challenge:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44414668
  • Options
    ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    The US is the most advanced case in the Western world, but the UK has been going in the same direction. The working class feel they are being exploited by the very rich from above and undercut by newly arriving migrants from below. The Right doesn't like addressing the first and the Left doesn't like addressing the second. Any government that visibly combines a tight immigration policy with clamping down on the corporate class would win a big landslide.
    Hence in the UK we had UKIP, Brexit and Corbyn, in the USA we had Trump and Sanders, in France they have Le Pen and Melenchon, in Italy they have a coalition government between the anti austerity Five Star and the anti migration Lega Nord and in New Zealand there is a coalition government between Labour and New Zealand First
    Yep. I find it enormously frustrating that my fellow social democrats refuse to acknowledge how their support for open immigration and opposition to national identity completely undermines their own electoral base. They need to read more Orwell.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    Elliot said:

    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    The US is the most advanced case in the Western world, but the UK has been going in the same direction. The working class feel they are being exploited by the very rich from above and undercut by newly arriving migrants from below. The Right doesn't like addressing the first and the Left doesn't like addressing the second. Any government that visibly combines a tight immigration policy with clamping down on the corporate class would win a big landslide.
    Hence in the UK we had UKIP, Brexit and Corbyn, in the USA we had Trump and Sanders, in France they have Le Pen and Melenchon, in Italy they have a coalition government between the anti austerity Five Star and the anti migration Lega Nord and in New Zealand there is a coalition government between Labour and New Zealand First
    Yep. I find it enormously frustrating that my fellow social democrats refuse to acknowledge how their support for open immigration and opposition to national identity completely undermines their own electoral base. They need to read more Orwell.
    Yes, social democrats are being squeezed by anti austerity populists on their left and anti migration populists on the right.

    Mind you christian democrats and the establishment centre right are not doing much better and are also being hit by anti migration and nationalist populists
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    The US is the most advanced case in the Western world, but the UK has been going in the same direction. The working class feel they are being exploited by the very rich from above and undercut by newly arriving migrants from below. The Right doesn't like addressing the first and the Left doesn't like addressing the second. Any government that visibly combines a tight immigration policy with clamping down on the corporate class would win a big landslide.
    Hence in the UK we had UKIP, Brexit and Corbyn, in the USA we had Trump and Sanders, in France they have Le Pen and Melenchon, in Italy they have a coalition government between the anti austerity Five Star and the anti migration Lega Nord and in New Zealand there is a coalition government between Labour and New Zealand First
    Yep. I find it enormously frustrating that my fellow social democrats refuse to acknowledge how their support for open immigration and opposition to national identity completely undermines their own electoral base. They need to read more Orwell.
    Yes, social democrats are being squeezed by anti austerity populists on their left and anti migration populists on the right.

    Mind you christian democrats and the establishment centre right are not doing much better and are also being hit by anti migration and nationalist populists
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1006125836897079297
  • Options
    AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Elliot said:

    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    The US is the most advanced case in the Western world, but the UK has been going in the same direction. The working class feel they are being exploited by the very rich from above and undercut by newly arriving migrants from below. The Right doesn't like addressing the first and the Left doesn't like addressing the second. Any government that visibly combines a tight immigration policy with clamping down on the corporate class would win a big landslide.
    Hence in the UK we had UKIP, Brexit and Corbyn, in the USA we had Trump and Sanders, in France they have Le Pen and Melenchon, in Italy they have a coalition government between the anti austerity Five Star and the anti migration Lega Nord and in New Zealand there is a coalition government between Labour and New Zealand First
    Yep. I find it enormously frustrating that my fellow social democrats refuse to acknowledge how their support for open immigration and opposition to national identity completely undermines their own electoral base. They need to read more Orwell.
    "my fellow social democrats"

    Guffaw. Your posts suggest you are one of the most rightwing Tories on this forum. There must be a massive difference between what you write and what you think.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,834
    Elliot said:

    HYUFD said:

    Elliot said:

    On topic, the big takeaway is that Trump has eaten the Republican Party, so:

    1) GOP members will be terrified to impeach him, no matter what Mueller finds
    2) It's going to be really hard to primary him

    If that's right, the market that looks mis-priced is this one:
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/republican-candidate

    Agreed, the really scary thing is what comes after him. The zanier elements of the base will rightly conclude if we can elect DJT why would we ever need to pick a mainstream candidate ever again?

    GW Bush may have been the last tradiotradi Republican president.
    Traditional/moderator Republicans will not get anywhere until either a) they start to seriously address the issues that are driving voters to populists or b) the populist thing blows up spectacularly somehow.
    The US is the most advanced case in the Western world, but the UK has been going in the same direction. The working class feel they are being exploited by the very rich from above and undercut by newly arriving migrants from below. The Right doesn't like addressing the first and the Left doesn't like addressing the second. Any government that visibly combines a tight immigration policy with clamping down on the corporate class would win a big landslide.
    Hence in the UK we had UKIP, Brexit and Corbyn, in the USA we had Trump and Sanders, in France they have Le Pen and Melenchon, in Italy they have a coalition government between the anti austerity Five Star and the anti migration Lega Nord and in New Zealand there is a coalition government between Labour and New Zealand First
    Yep. I find it enormously frustrating that my fellow social democrats refuse to acknowledge how their support for open immigration and opposition to national identity completely undermines their own electoral base. They need to read more Orwell.
    The problem is that they’ve already been reading Orwell. And they see his books as instruction manuals.
This discussion has been closed.