politicalbetting
›

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Sign In Register

Quick Links

Categories

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Soon there might not be a single Tory MP not p*ssed off at The

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Soon there might not be a single Tory MP not p*ssed off at Theresa May’s duplicity (and or incompetence)

Finally, after 2 hours of silence from No10, a statement: DexEU spokesman: "We have not, and will not, agree to the House of Commons binding the Government's hands in the negotiations". Grieve et al thought the PM just had.

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 25,012

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 42,030
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 2,043
    Remainers circle the wagon while PM tries to square the circle.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    edited June 2018
    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 3,223
    edited June 2018
    Now I understand our PM.
    She is all things to all people.
    She is vacillating.
    She says what the audience wants to hear, regardless of contradictions.
    This makes her a classic libdem.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,714
    FPT:
    rcs1000 said:

    ralphmalph said:

    RobD said:

    ralphmalph said:

    Does anybody have a link to a comparison of the growth rates of NAFTA versus EEC/EU over a period of time, it is something I have looked for but never found. A direct comparison of a Free Trade Area versus a customs union and single market.

    Is the comparison valid? There are so many other variables at play.
    IMO that depends on the conclusions you draw. But as you say there are variables such as does a single regulatory environment versus national regulatory environments make much difference, does a single external tariff make a difference. It is just something I would like to have a look at and think about.
    I suspect Mexico has done very well. But then again, Mexico was probably going to do well in NAFTA, or out of it, as it is benefiting from the twin demographic boosts of few old people and a declining birth rates.

    Indeed, I'd go further and say that 80% of all economic growth is probably demographic related. Basically, countries do well when dependency ratios are falling, and do badly when they're rising.
    I think that the effect of NAFTA on Mexico is mixed. More manufacturing jobs, but 2 million farming jobs lost to US Agribusiness. The latter has not just added to Mexico's obesity epidemic, but also caused small farmers to move into the opium trade. Sometimes you cannot seperate social and economic fates.

    Fertility rate certainly has a relationship with economic growth, but it is chicken and egg. I would regard a declining fertility rate as evidence of a mature economy, rather than as a cause of it. Largely both economic performance rising, and fertility rate falling are caused by women working outside the home.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 72,447
    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    I don't have the political or emotional bandwith to deal with another general election (or referendum) this decade.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 26,934
    Theresa May believes that the EU withdrawal bill must reach the statue book in the next few weeks at all costs. Principally, because she wants legal clarity of Brexit in the UK as a baseline established assp, and to be able to demonstrate political progress at the next European Council meeting at the end of June. The next isn’t until October, when she’ll be out of time.

    She is doing what she always does: doing whatever is necessary to ensure the immediate hurdle is jumped, before moving onto and worrying about the next.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 26,934
    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    ralphmalph said:

    RobD said:

    ralphmalph said:

    Does anybody have a link to a comparison of the growth rates of NAFTA versus EEC/EU over a period of time, it is something I have looked for but never found. A direct comparison of a Free Trade Area versus a customs union and single market.

    Is the comparison valid? There are so many other variables at play.
    IMO that depends on the conclusions you draw. But as you say there are variables such as does a single regulatory environment versus national regulatory environments make much difference, does a single external tariff make a difference. It is just something I would like to have a look at and think about.
    I suspect Mexico has done very well. But then again, Mexico was probably going to do well in NAFTA, or out of it, as it is benefiting from the twin demographic boosts of few old people and a declining birth rates.

    Indeed, I'd go further and say that 80% of all economic growth is probably demographic related. Basically, countries do well when dependency ratios are falling, and do badly when they're rising.
    I think that the effect of NAFTA on Mexico is mixed. More manufacturing jobs, but 2 million farming jobs lost to US Agribusiness. The latter has not just added to Mexico's obesity epidemic, but also caused small farmers to move into the opium trade. Sometimes you cannot seperate social and economic fates.

    Fertility rate certainly has a relationship with economic growth, but it is chicken and egg. I would regard a declining fertility rate as evidence of a mature economy, rather than as a cause of it. Largely both economic performance rising, and fertility rate falling are caused by women working outside the home.
    It depends on new young working humans entering the labour market to pay taxes to pay for older non-working ones.

    AI could throw much of this out, on both sides of the equation.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 1,776
    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    The first thing they have to do is agree among themselves what it is that Conservatives want. At present, all of them come along, give us their own version of Conservative policy, and pretend there is no other.

    The worst offender is Mrs May herself. She has lost the trust of absolutely everybody.

    The Conservatives cannot possibly fight a general election in a coherent manner while they are still papering over the cracks.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,460
    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.
    Thank God for the World Cup starting. A penalty shoot out may be the most sensible way out.
    Of course we could have had these rows before triggering A50.
    Or even before we voted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 72,447
    Don't have nightmare kids because caring is sharing.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,714
    Casino_Royale said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    ralphmalph said:

    RobD said:

    ralphmalph said:

    Does anybody have a link to a comparison of the growth rates of NAFTA versus EEC/EU over a period of time, it is something I have looked for but never found. A direct comparison of a Free Trade Area versus a customs union and single market.

    Is the comparison valid? There are so many other variables at play.
    IMO that depends on the conclusions you draw. But as you say there are variables such as does a single regulatory environment versus national regulatory environments make much difference, does a single external tariff make a difference. It is just something I would like to have a look at and think about.
    I suspect Mexico has done very well. But then again, Mexico was probably going to do well in NAFTA, or out of it, as it is benefiting from the twin demographic boosts of few old people and a declining birth rates.

    Indeed, I'd go further and say that 80% of all economic growth is probably demographic related. Basically, countries do well when dependency ratios are falling, and do badly when they're rising.
    I think that the effect of NAFTA on Mexico is mixed. More manufacturing jobs, but 2 million farming jobs lost to US Agribusiness. The latter has not just added to Mexico's obesity epidemic, but also caused small farmers to move into the opium trade. Sometimes you cannot seperate social and economic fates.

    Fertility rate certainly has a relationship with economic growth, but it is chicken and egg. I would regard a declining fertility rate as evidence of a mature economy, rather than as a cause of it. Largely both economic performance rising, and fertility rate falling are caused by women working outside the home.
    It depends on new young working humans entering the labour market to pay taxes to pay for older non-working ones.

    AI could throw much of this out, on both sides of the equation.
    I am sceptical. For over 200 years automation has been forecast to cause mass unemployment, yet we now have the highest employment rates in our history.

    Indeed much employment growth is in semi skilled service occupations, from care homes to hospitality. These are not readily automated, or at least not in a way customers like.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Tony Blair always played the "i'm the reasonable one round here" card very well. If she can make it look like shes annoyed the headbangers on both sides...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,099
    GIN1138 said:


    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    The practical problem with this is that the voters are going to hate any version of Brexit they may actually get, so if you have another election the parties will inevitably do what they did last time and run on something unachievable, and probably also logically impossible, after which we're back where we started.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 2,010
    edited June 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    And if the election produced a parliament with roughly the same balance between the parties as now? Which is what the opinion polls suggest. How would that help move us forward?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 42,030
  • RobDRobD Posts: 35,628
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Don't have nightmare kids because caring is sharing.

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1006641936927805441

    Who knows what the good Lord Salisbury got up to in his spare time ;)
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 22,084
    edmundintokyo said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    The practical problem with this is that the voters are going to hate any version of Brexit they may actually get, so if you have another election the parties will inevitably do what they did last time and run on something unachievable, and probably also logically impossible, after which we're back where we started.
    The answer, surely, is to sack TMay and Tory MPs to choose from a new list of premiers who will each promise their own version of Brexit, from Hard to Soft to BINO to Remain.

    My guess is that the Tory party would go for soft, EEA-ish, in the Single Market but outside the Customs Union. Then the government would have to try and win that from the EU, and if they fail, the voters would punish them in 2022.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,714
    Could I just plug the PB World Cup FF league:

    https://fantasy.fifa.com/services/api/share/user/288b68d0-6e42-11e8-9681-16e9a17aa0c6/web/leagueinvite?title=Think+you+can+beat+me?+Join+my+2018+FIFA+World+Cup+TM+Fantasy+Football+league+#WorldCupFantasy&description=&leaguecode=https://fantasy.fifa.com/en/leagues?code=4472466F787923233132343839342323504225323050696E656170706C6525323050697A7A6173232356424D4B4345584C&language=en

    Or League Code: VBMKCEXL

    A tasty treat for all who join :)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    anothernick said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    And if the election produced a parliament with roughly the same balance between the parties as now? Which is what the opinion polls suggest. How would that help move us forward?
    Well there's always that risk (to mitigate you obviously need to have someone other than Theresa May fronting the campaign) but this Parliament is not viable for the task it's being asked to conduct (it was obvious it wouldn't be right from election night last year) so they need to try something else and do it ASAP.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    The practical problem with this is that the voters are going to hate any version of Brexit they may actually get, so if you have another election the parties will inevitably do what they did last time and run on something unachievable, and probably also logically impossible, after which we're back where we started.
    The answer, surely, is to sack TMay and Tory MPs to choose from a new list of premiers who will each promise their own version of Brexit, from Hard to Soft to BINO to Remain.

    My guess is that the Tory party would go for soft, EEA-ish, in the Single Market but outside the Customs Union. Then the government would have to try and win that from the EU, and if they fail, the voters would punish them in 2022.
    So freedom of movement and no solution to Northern Ireland?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 1,225
    Scott_P said:

    The ministers were named as Shailesh Vara, a Northern Ireland minister, Alistair Burt, a Foreign Office minister, and Richard Harrington, a business minister.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    :D
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 72,447
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 10,099
    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    The practical problem with this is that the voters are going to hate any version of Brexit they may actually get, so if you have another election the parties will inevitably do what they did last time and run on something unachievable, and probably also logically impossible, after which we're back where we started.
    The answer, surely, is to sack TMay and Tory MPs to choose from a new list of premiers who will each promise their own version of Brexit, from Hard to Soft to BINO to Remain.

    My guess is that the Tory party would go for soft, EEA-ish, in the Single Market but outside the Customs Union. Then the government would have to try and win that from the EU, and if they fail, the voters would punish them in 2022.
    I think that has the same problem because the Conservative Party rules put the final selection of the leader down to the members, and selling something achievable to the Tory membership would be even harder than selling it to the voters at large.

    That's unless the MPs can work out a way to stitch things up by orchestrating an uncontested leadership election, which sounds like a tough problem for a party that's fighting like ferrets in a sack.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    We're very rapidly heading toward either

    A. A constitutional crisis

    B. A national emergency

    C. Civil unrest

    Or maybe a combination of all three... I don't think we have time to wait for boundary changes.

    This mess is starting to get serious now...
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    I'd like to see Jeremy Corbyn to answer his critics on Brexit for the main reason I sense it would silence his Chicken Coup Series 2 FBPE Brexit obsessives.
    One clear benefit for a post Brexit future is then the cruel 5% VAT on fuel bills could be abolished,A 5% cut universally in everyone's fuel bill will prove there is a Brexit dividend and I suspect be very popular.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Sun's had it with her... :D
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Don't have nightmare kids because caring is sharing.

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1006641936927805441

    Who knows what the good Lord Salisbury got up to in his spare time ;)
    They say Joel Barnett wasn’t averse to a lively Friday night.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    williamglenn said:


    Anna Soubry made an undertaking to the British people to leave the single market and the customs union when she stood on that platform to get reelected.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    SeanT said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    The practical problem with this is that the voters are going to hate any version of Brexit they may actually get, so if you have another election the parties will inevitably do what they did last time and run on something unachievable, and probably also logically impossible, after which we're back where we started.
    The answer, surely, is to sack TMay and Tory MPs to choose from a new list of premiers who will each promise their own version of Brexit, from Hard to Soft to BINO to Remain.

    My guess is that the Tory party would go for soft, EEA-ish, in the Single Market but outside the Customs Union. Then the government would have to try and win that from the EU, and if they fail, the voters would punish them in 2022.
    Nah, just stick Kenny Clarke in as PM in a government of national unity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    Even recognising that the vote would have been tight, it just looks like very stupid behaviour. What benefit winning one vote today if a group of MPs think they have been deceived, engendering sympathy among others I would think as well? Even if they themselves were stupid for thinking that was what May was promising, it does her no good down the line.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    GIN1138 said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    We're very rapidly heading toward either

    A. A constitutional crisis

    B. A national emergency

    C. Civil unrest

    Or maybe a combination of all three... I don't think we have time to wait for boundary changes.

    This mess is starting to get serious now...
    Wouldn't it be better to get a more pro-Brexit parliament before that plays out. Be sensible and think more than one step ahead.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    volcanopete said:

    I'd like to see Jeremy Corbyn to answer his critics on Brexit for the main reason I sense it would silence his Chicken Coup Series 2 FBPE Brexit obsessives.
    One clear benefit for a post Brexit future is then the cruel 5% VAT on fuel bills could be abolished,A 5% cut universally in everyone's fuel bill will prove there is a Brexit dividend and I suspect be very popular.

    Indeed.

    Imagine a manifesto that pledges an extra £350m a week for the NHS and the abolition of VAT on fuel after we leave the EU.

    Whoever had the guts to do it would romp home...
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,005
    edited June 2018
    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    Indeed, I don't think another election is a starter as you identify due to the boundaries and to use Kenneth Clarke's quote "she is a difficult woman". Which means she will have to be dragged out of number 10 with her fingers stuck to the door! She is not going to give up on being PM, she will see in her mind that she got the most votes for the Tories since 1992. She will also think that given the other candidates on offer she is the best person to deliver a Brexit that works for all.

    Personally, I was always skeptical of her abilities to be PM but ended up voting for the Conservatives in 2017 because I could not contemplate Corbyn as a viable PM.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,380
    anothernick said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    And if the election produced a parliament with roughly the same balance between the parties as now? Which is what the opinion polls suggest. How would that help move us forward?
    Well, we'd have all made enough money betting to compensate us.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    In fairness to May though, the most strident leaver agitators, in her own Cabinet no less, have been defying her and briefing that she is toast come July anyway, so their threats that she is f*cked are nothing new - clearly she could have promised the remainer rebels nothing and that crowd would have made a move, since they keep telling us they on the brink of making a move.

    But I still fail to see the sense in pissing off both sides at once.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 9,938
    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    What makes you think that (Boris) would be her successor ?
    And why on earth do you think trying to hold another snap election isn’t playing silly buggers.

    But yes, May’s departure is beginning to look inevitable. Putting off any sort of decision, yet again, in the absurd hope that something might turn up and make the decision for her, isn’t even ridiculous any more. Just pitiful.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    We're very rapidly heading toward either

    A. A constitutional crisis

    B. A national emergency

    C. Civil unrest

    Or maybe a combination of all three... I don't think we have time to wait for boundary changes.

    This mess is starting to get serious now...
    Wouldn't it be better to get a more pro-Brexit parliament before that plays out. Be sensible and think more than one step ahead.
    How does one get a more Brexit parliament? An election would probably return a similar proportion of MPs as now, and even with boundary changes the changing of candidates' attitudes would not be particularly dramatic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,714
    GIN1138 said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    We're very rapidly heading toward either

    A. A constitutional crisis

    B. A national emergency

    C. Civil unrest

    Or maybe a combination of all three... I don't think we have time to wait for boundary changes.

    This mess is starting to get serious now...
    I think you exaggerate. Ultimately, what we want (and who is this we?) is only one aspect of the puzzle. The other aspect is what the EU27 want, and the third being what is achievable in the timeframe.

    As nothing is achievable apart from car crash Brexit, or to exit to the December transition, with a final agreement on trade along the road, we need to choose between those two. So we either stick to our word on the Irish backstop (therefore indefinite CU) while the final deal is arranged or we crash out.

    In reality the choice is that simple binary one. Nothing else could be agreed in time apart from A50 being withdrawn.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    We're very rapidly heading toward either

    A. A constitutional crisis

    B. A national emergency

    C. Civil unrest

    Or maybe a combination of all three... I don't think we have time to wait for boundary changes.

    This mess is starting to get serious now...
    Wouldn't it be better to get a more pro-Brexit parliament before that plays out. Be sensible and think more than one step ahead.
    The pro-democracy social democratic Leaver advocates a bit of cheeky gerrymandering.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    edited June 2018
    The_Taxman said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    She will also think that given the other candidates on offer she is the best person to deliver a Brexit that works for all.

    .
    It wasn't entirely absurd to think that even a year ago. Now it is clear she has no idea, is too weakened by party factions and her own indecision to act given the parliamentary arithmetic, and we just keep kicking the can down the road. A road which is far from endless, this meaning the can kicking is actively harmful.

    It's a good thing for the Tories I'm in a safe seat for them, because they aren't getting my vote next time.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 22,084
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Sun's had it with her... :D
    It looks extremely ominous for her. She's lost the Mail as well.

    The only thing keeping her in place is the Tory party's inability to settle on an obvious Brexiteer (or Remainer) to replace her.

    We are headed for a long hot dangerous summer. I can see all possible outcomes, from No Deal to No Brexit.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 26,934
    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    ralphmalph said:

    RobD said:

    ralphmalph said:

    Does anybody have a link to a comparison of the growth rates of NAFTA versus EEC/EU over a period of time, it is something I have looked for but never found. A direct comparison of a Free Trade Area versus a customs union and single market.

    Is the comparison valid? There are so many other variables at play.
    IMO that depends on the conclusions you draw. But as you say there are variables such as does a single regulatory environment versus national regulatory environments make much difference, does a single external tariff make a difference. It is just something I would like to have a look at and think about.
    I suspect Mexico has done very well. But then again, Mexico was probably going to do well in NAFTA, or out of it, as it is benefiting from the twin demographic boosts of few old people and a declining birth rates.

    Indeed, I'd go further and say that 80% of all economic growth is probably demographic related. Basically, countries do well when dependency ratios are falling, and do badly when they're rising.
    I think that the effect of NAFTA on Mexico is mixed. More manufacturing jobs, but 2 million farming jobs lost to US Agribusiness. The latter has not just added to Mexico's obesity epidemic, but also caused small farmers to move into the opium trade. Sometimes you cannot seperate social and economic fates.

    Fertility rate certainly has a relationship with economic growth, but it is chicken and egg. I would regard a declining fertility rate as evidence of a mature economy, rather than as a cause of it. Largely both economic performance rising, and fertility rate falling are caused by women working outside the home.
    It depends on new young working humans entering the labour market to pay taxes to pay for older non-working ones.

    AI could throw much of this out, on both sides of the equation.
    I am sceptical. For over 200 years automation has been forecast to cause mass unemployment, yet we now have the highest employment rates in our history.

    Indeed much employment growth is in semi skilled service occupations, from care homes to hospitality. These are not readily automated, or at least not in a way customers like.
    I am not saying it will cause mass unemployment. But it might make a heavy dent in the demand for low skilled labour, and shift the human workforce to more social and leisure occupations.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,301
    rcs1000 said:

    anothernick said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    And if the election produced a parliament with roughly the same balance between the parties as now? Which is what the opinion polls suggest. How would that help move us forward?
    Well, we'd have all made enough money betting to compensate us.
    Heh. And I say this as a Conservative voter, a leaver, and someone who thinks a Corbyn government would be the worst thing since some chap named Lenin said "Who's this Karl Marx? Maybe I'll read one of his books"... but the situation we face is too important to be left to one party. If we had another election and it returned a similar result, Brexit should be negotiated by a cross-party committee and if it ends up in BINO, at least at first, then so be it - that is a fair reflection of the original vote and the subsequent polling. It is also, whether we like it or not, democracy in action. Some of us voted to leave the EU precisely because it doesn't seem to know what democracy is, we have to be better.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Sun's had it with her... :D
    It looks extremely ominous for her. She's lost the Mail as well.

    The only thing keeping her in place is the Tory party's inability to settle on an obvious Brexiteer (or Remainer) to replace her.

    We are headed for a long hot dangerous summer. I can see all possible outcomes, from No Deal to No Brexit.
    More worringly those might infact be the only likely options, not merely the end points on the scale of options - no deal or no brexit seem far more likely than a deal in a scenario we have where it doesn't even matter yet what the EU might accept in a deal, since we still don't have a bloody clue what the cabinet would like to offer as a deal, not really.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    What makes you think that (Boris) would be her successor ?
    And why on earth do you think trying to hold another snap election isn’t playing silly buggers.

    1. I don't know Boris would be her successor.... But he's the only populist they've got at the moment so it makes sense...

    2. Because this Parliament is not viable for the task it's trying to achieve. In normal times, OK, we'd be able to soldier on but these are anything but normal times. It was obvious on 9th June 2017 that it wouldn't be a viable Parliament for exiting the European Union and so it has proved.

    The only way Brexit can be delivered is with either a unity government (non starter with Jezza leading Lab) or one party to have a healthy enough majority to withstand the loons on either side holding it to ransom.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    What makes you think that (Boris) would be her successor ?
    And why on earth do you think trying to hold another snap election isn’t playing silly buggers.


    The only way Brexit can be delivered is with either a unity government (non starter with Jezza leading Lab) or one party to have a healthy enough majority to withstand the loons on either side holding it to ransom.
    And how does a snap election guarantee that? It might deliver that (and the need for one is clear, which is why May tried in the first place last June) but there's little indication of movement, so more probable is no one would have a healthy majority and we'd just have wasted even more time.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,005
    kle4 said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    She will also think that given the other candidates on offer she is the best person to deliver a Brexit that works for all.

    .
    It wasn't entirely absurd to think that even a year ago. Now it is clear she has no idea, is too weakened by party factions and her own indecision to act given the parliamentary arithmetic, and we just keep kicking the can down the road. A road which is far from endless, this meaning the can kicking is actively harmful.

    It's a good thing for the Tories I'm in a safe seat for them, because they aren't getting my vote next time.
    I will decide to vote nearer the time but if Boris is the Tory leader I think the Tories will be in for a rude shock!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    edited June 2018
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    What makes you think that (Boris) would be her successor ?
    And why on earth do you think trying to hold another snap election isn’t playing silly buggers.


    The only way Brexit can be delivered is with either a unity government (non starter with Jezza leading Lab) or one party to have a healthy enough majority to withstand the loons on either side holding it to ransom.
    And how does a snap election guarantee that? It might deliver that (and the need for one is clear, which is why May tried in the first place last June) but there's little indication of movement, so more probable is no one would have a healthy majority and we'd just have wasted even more time.
    It doesn't guarantee. I never said it was a guarantee. We could well finish up with a Parliament like we have now... Or we might not.

    Look at the election results in 1923 and 1924, worlds apart. On the other hand the two in 1974 came away with similar outcomes so you just never know.

    But this Parliament is not a viable parliament to deliver Brexit so they've got to try something.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May, though what options might be available on the ballot is less clear. Consider:

    She cannot rely on parliamentary arithmetic, and it is increasingly difficult to see how she gets her party's rabblerousers to keep backing her.

    No one else has time to try anything else (it seems obvious they lacked the guts to move earlier, and are now relying on blaming her for the whole mess down the line)

    Trying to arrange another new election does not guarantee a positive outcome for either the country or her party

    Add all that up, and she needs to take the choice out of parliament's hands somehow so it at least has a chance to get passed, and with the added benefit there is greater chance of Labour's divisions on the issue being exposed as much as her own for a change, so it's a stalemate between them at least.

    I simply don't see how she manages to get any sort of deal through this parliament, given the various stances and how things have been managed, nor can parliament realistically sort it all out in time should said deal not work.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,460
    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    We're very rapidly heading toward either

    A. A constitutional crisis

    B. A national emergency

    C. Civil unrest

    Or maybe a combination of all three... I don't think we have time to wait for boundary changes.

    This mess is starting to get serious now...
    Wouldn't it be better to get a more pro-Brexit parliament before that plays out. Be sensible and think more than one step ahead.
    Wasn't that the plan last time?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,013
    edited June 2018
    One thing for May is you cannot say she is not one step ahead of the rebels, like John Major she has perfected the art of telling Eurosceptics she is on their side while also assuring Europhiles she wants to remain in the EU. Major pulled it off for 7 years
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 24,380
    HYUFD said:

    One thing for May is you cannot say she is not one step ahead of the rebels, like John Major she has perfected the art of telling Eurosceptics she is on their side while also assuring Europhiles she wants to remain in the EU. Major pulled it off for 7 years

    How did that end for the Conservative Party?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,013
    The_Taxman said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    She will also think that given the other candidates on offer she is the best person to deliver a Brexit that works for all.

    .
    It wasn't entirely absurd to think that even a year ago. Now it is clear she has no idea, is too weakened by party factions and her own indecision to act given the parliamentary arithmetic, and we just keep kicking the can down the road. A road which is far from endless, this meaning the can kicking is actively harmful.

    It's a good thing for the Tories I'm in a safe seat for them, because they aren't getting my vote next time.
    I will decide to vote nearer the time but if Boris is the Tory leader I think the Tories will be in for a rude shock!
    Boris has charisma which is probably the most important attribute needed in any political leader today so I would certainly not count him out
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May,



    She'll never get that past her Cabinet much less her backbenchers....
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 22,084
    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May, though what options might be available on the ballot is less clear. Consider:

    She cannot rely on parliamentary arithmetic, and it is increasingly difficult to see how she gets her party's rabblerousers to keep backing her.

    No one else has time to try anything else (it seems obvious they lacked the guts to move earlier, and are now relying on blaming her for the whole mess down the line)

    Trying to arrange another new election does not guarantee a positive outcome for either the country or her party

    Add all that up, and she needs to take the choice out of parliament's hands somehow so it at least has a chance to get passed, and with the added benefit there is greater chance of Labour's divisions on the issue being exposed as much as her own for a change, so it's a stalemate between them at least.

    I simply don't see how she manages to get any sort of deal through this parliament, given the various stances and how things have been managed, nor can parliament realistically sort it all out in time should said deal not work.

    A second referendum asking..... what?? Serious question,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,013
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May, though what options might be available on the ballot is less clear. Consider:

    She cannot rely on parliamentary arithmetic, and it is increasingly difficult to see how she gets her party's rabblerousers to keep backing her.

    No one else has time to try anything else (it seems obvious they lacked the guts to move earlier, and are now relying on blaming her for the whole mess down the line)

    Trying to arrange another new election does not guarantee a positive outcome for either the country or her party

    Add all that up, and she needs to take the choice out of parliament's hands somehow so it at least has a chance to get passed, and with the added benefit there is greater chance of Labour's divisions on the issue being exposed as much as her own for a change, so it's a stalemate between them at least.

    I simply don't see how she manages to get any sort of deal through this parliament, given the various stances and how things have been managed, nor can parliament realistically sort it all out in time should said deal not work.

    A second referendum asking..... what?? Serious question,
    Survation on Sunday - A second referendum has Leave 50% Remain 50% so we would be even more deadlocked than we were before!
    http://survation.com/conservatives-labour-neck-and-neck-in-our-initial-post-local-election-polling/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May,



    She'll never get that past her Cabinet much less her backbenchers....
    That is the major problem, yes. It requires a big change in opinion certainly within the chamber that clearly this parliament is simply unable to make a decision on this effectively. I don't know how such a change would occur.

    But frankly it still seems more plausible than expecting to have the numbers for a deal after deceiving MPs (or so several are now claiming - and that matters more than whether May feels she did deceive them), or that parliament will magically be able to resolve its factional complications in the event May's deal collapses, which it clearly will.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 72,447
    edited June 2018
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May, though what options might be available on the ballot is less clear. Consider:

    She cannot rely on parliamentary arithmetic, and it is increasingly difficult to see how she gets her party's rabblerousers to keep backing her.

    No one else has time to try anything else (it seems obvious they lacked the guts to move earlier, and are now relying on blaming her for the whole mess down the line)

    Trying to arrange another new election does not guarantee a positive outcome for either the country or her party

    Add all that up, and she needs to take the choice out of parliament's hands somehow so it at least has a chance to get passed, and with the added benefit there is greater chance of Labour's divisions on the issue being exposed as much as her own for a change, so it's a stalemate between them at least.

    I simply don't see how she manages to get any sort of deal through this parliament, given the various stances and how things have been managed, nor can parliament realistically sort it all out in time should said deal not work.

    A second referendum asking..... what?? Serious question,
    A ) Reject the deal and Remain on current terms

    B ) Accept the deal and Leave

    C ) Reject the deal and Leave on WTO terms

    Conducted under AV
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,086
    edited June 2018
    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    What makes you think that (Boris) would be her successor ?
    And why on earth do you think trying to hold another snap election isn’t playing silly buggers.


    The only way Brexit can be delivered is with either a unity government (non starter with Jezza leading Lab) or one party to have a healthy enough majority to withstand the loons on either side holding it to ransom.
    And how does a snap election guarantee that? It might deliver that (and the need for one is clear, which is why May tried in the first place last June) but there's little indication of movement, so more probable is no one would have a healthy majority and we'd just have wasted even more time.
    You don't get to a snap election for that to happen.

    The Tories fall in the eye of the crisis, Corbyn doesn't get the support to form a government and a unity candidate emerges from the midst.

    Depends not only on enough support for the unity candidate to gain confidence, but on the exact parliamentary rules governing precedence of trying to form a government, e.g. could Corbyn run the clock down and prevent a candidate from emerging?

    Such an administration would last no more than 3-6 months on a very limited mandate.

    I have wondered aloud whether Vince Cable represented slight value for covering in the next PM market at 125/1: last I saw be is in to 100/1. Select committee chairs look in partp like a cabinet in writing. You may count that as one of my pet theories on the edge of sanity, if you wish.

  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 22,084
    edited June 2018
    Intriguing, POST-Brexit the UK (especially London) has pulled in three times as much investment in tech as any other European country.

    This is NEW investment, not stuff already committed before the vote.

    http://www.cityam.com/287193/uk-tech-industry-pulled-more-than-three-times-much

    Hmm.

    PS - this might explain why, to me, walking around the place, London still feels like a huge boomtown. Seething with people, dynamism and ideas, and far livelier and more inventive than any other great European city.

    That said there are more ominous, distant signs, euro-clearing moving to Frankfurt, etc.

    We shall see.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,005
    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    She will also think that given the other candidates on offer she is the best person to deliver a Brexit that works for all.

    .
    It wasn't entirely absurd to think that even a year ago. Now it is clear she has no idea, is too weakened by party factions and her own indecision to act given the parliamentary arithmetic, and we just keep kicking the can down the road. A road which is far from endless, this meaning the can kicking is actively harmful.

    It's a good thing for the Tories I'm in a safe seat for them, because they aren't getting my vote next time.
    I will decide to vote nearer the time but if Boris is the Tory leader I think the Tories will be in for a rude shock!
    Boris has charisma which is probably the most important attribute needed in any political leader today so I would certainly not count him out
    No but I would say 75% of the people I know who vote for the Tories really don't like him after the Brexit vote (including me). I would not vote for them if he were leader and I know for certain others would not vote for him as they are more exercised about it than I.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,013
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    One thing for May is you cannot say she is not one step ahead of the rebels, like John Major she has perfected the art of telling Eurosceptics she is on their side while also assuring Europhiles she wants to remain in the EU. Major pulled it off for 7 years

    How did that end for the Conservative Party?
    Well Major won a historic 4th majority term in government not achieved by any party in over a century (OK he lost to Blair in 1997 when Labour won at their fifth attempt but even had Jesus Christ been Tory leader he would have lost that election)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,497
    edited June 2018
    kle4 said:

    Even recognising that the vote would have been tight, it just looks like very stupid behaviour. What benefit winning one vote today if a group of MPs think they have been deceived, engendering sympathy among others I would think as well? Even if they themselves were stupid for thinking that was what May was promising, it does her no good down the line.

    It seems as if May has figured she needs to pick off three or four rebels to win a vote. She has bought herself a bit of extra time to do that. It looks a very risky move to me - a career ending one - but it has become very clear over a long period of time now that she is totally and utterly out of her depth. She always was, to be fair, but there is no hiding place when you are PM. Boris may be the next to find this out.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May, though what options might be available on the ballot is less clear. Consider:

    She cannot rely on parliamentary arithmetic, and it is increasingly difficult to see how she gets her party's rabblerousers to keep backing her.

    No one else has time to try anything else (it seems obvious they lacked the guts to move earlier, and are now relying on blaming her for the whole mess down the line)

    Trying to arrange another new election does not guarantee a positive outcome for either the country or her party

    Add all that up, and she needs to take the choice out of parliament's hands somehow so it at least has a chance to get passed, and with the added benefit there is greater chance of Labour's divisions on the issue being exposed as much as her own for a change, so it's a stalemate between them at least.

    I simply don't see how she manages to get any sort of deal through this parliament, given the various stances and how things have been managed, nor can parliament realistically sort it all out in time should said deal not work.

    A second referendum asking..... what?? Serious question,
    I'm unclear on that, admittedly. And I am not a fan of parliament absolving itself of its responsibilities. But they just don't have the numbers for anything, that seems obvious. If Leaving is still to happen then the options would need to be something like accept the deal (if there is one), attempt to renegotiate terms, and that's that.

    No doubt coming up with the question is another major complication, but if they cannot agree even within a cabinet this far down the line, they aren't going to do so in the remaining time we have, in which case let May try to get what she can, and have it presented to the people to break the deadlock.

    Hardly ideal.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 3,460
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May, though what options might be available on the ballot is less clear. Consider:

    She cannot rely on parliamentary arithmetic, and it is increasingly difficult to see how she gets her party's rabblerousers to keep backing her.

    No one else has time to try anything else (it seems obvious they lacked the guts to move earlier, and are now relying on blaming her for the whole mess down the line)

    Trying to arrange another new election does not guarantee a positive outcome for either the country or her party

    Add all that up, and she needs to take the choice out of parliament's hands somehow so it at least has a chance to get passed, and with the added benefit there is greater chance of Labour's divisions on the issue being exposed as much as her own for a change, so it's a stalemate between them at least.

    I simply don't see how she manages to get any sort of deal through this parliament, given the various stances and how things have been managed, nor can parliament realistically sort it all out in time should said deal not work.

    A second referendum asking..... what?? Serious question,
    A ) Reject the deal and Remain on current terms

    B ) Accept the deal and Leave

    C ) Reject the deal and Leave on WTO terms

    Conducted under AV
    Exactly the topic of my much derided first post on PB!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,005
    Pro_Rata said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    What makes you think that (Boris) would be her successor ?
    And why on earth do you think trying to hold another snap election isn’t playing silly buggers.


    The only way Brexit can be delivered is with either a unity government (non starter with Jezza leading Lab) or one party to have a healthy enough majority to withstand the loons on either side holding it to ransom.
    And how does a snap election guarantee that? It might deliver that (and the need for one is clear, which is why May tried in the first place last June) but there's little indication of movement, so more probable is no one would have a healthy majority and we'd just have wasted even more time.
    You don't get to a snap election for that to happen.

    The Tories fall in the eye of the crisis, Corbyn doesn't get the support to form a governmentg ove a unity candidate emerges from the midst.

    Depends not only on enough support for the unity candidate to gain confidence, but on the exact parliamentary rules governing precedence of trying to form a government, e.g. could Corbyn run the clock down and prevent a candidate from emerging?

    Such an administration would last no more than 3-6 months on a very limited mandate.

    I have wondered aloud whether Vince Cable represented slight value for covering in the next PM market at 125/1: last I saw be is in to 100/1. Select committee chairs look in partp like a cabinet in writing. You may count that as one of my pet theories on the edge of sanity, if you wish.

    lol - Vince Cable!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May,



    She'll never get that past her Cabinet much less her backbenchers....
    Also, she cannot get anything but confusingly misleading fudged phrases past her own Cabinet already, so it wouldn't be much less productive.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,086
    The_Taxman said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    kle4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    What makes you think that (Boris) would be her successor ?
    And why on earth do you think trying to hold another snap election isn’t playing silly buggers.


    The only way Brexit can be delivered is with either a unity government (non starter with Jezza leading Lab) or one party to have a healthy enough majority to withstand the loons on either side holding it to ransom.
    And how does a snap election guarantee that? It might deliver that (and the need for one is clear, which is why May tried in the first place last June) but there's little indication of movement, so more probable is no one would have a healthy majority and we'd just have wasted even more time.
    You don't get to a snap election for that to happen.

    The Tories fall in the eye of the crisis, Corbyn doesn't get the support to form a governmentg ove a unity candidate emerges from the midst.

    Depends not only on enough support for the unity candidate to gain confidence, but on the exact parliamentary rules governing precedence of trying to form a government, e.g. could Corbyn run the clock down and prevent a candidate from emerging?

    Such an administration would last no more than 3-6 months on a very limited mandate.

    I have wondered aloud whether Vince Cable represented slight value for covering in the next PM market at 125/1: last I saw be is in to 100/1. Select committee chairs look in partp like a cabinet in writing. You may count that as one of my pet theories on the edge of sanity, if you wish.

    lol - Vince Cable!
    Cover him for 50p, humour me.

    He don't need to be good, it may be enough to simply be there when the time comes.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 22,084
    edited June 2018
    HYUFD

    ***

    "Boris has charisma which is probably the most important attribute needed in any political leader today so I would certainly not count him out"

    ***

    I was a big fan of Boris but he hasn't been a huge triumph at the FCO. He has charisma but he seems to lack some X factor - Churchill had charisma but ALSO had serious gravitas, when needed.

    Boris doesn't do serious very well. He's ALWAYS looking for the neat gag or the biting sarcasm or the witty way out of a difficult question.

    And right now we want serious.

    But who else is there? It's a pretty poor choice. Gove is unelectable. Davis is so diminished.

    Priti Patel, Sajid Javid or maybe Raab? Fuck knows.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 21,094
    Foxy said:

    ...Fertility rate certainly has a relationship with economic growth, but it is chicken and egg. ..

    Bravo!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 12,805
    edited June 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May, though what options might be available on the ballot is less clear. Consider:

    She cannot rely on parliamentary arithmetic, and it is increasingly difficult to see how she gets her party's rabblerousers to keep backing her.

    No one else has time to try anything else (it seems obvious they lacked the guts to move earlier, and are now relying on blaming her for the whole mess down the line)

    Trying to arrange another new election does not guarantee a positive outcome for either the country or her party

    Add all that up, and she needs to take the choice out of parliament's hands somehow so it at least has a chance to get passed, and with the added benefit there is greater chance of Labour's divisions on the issue being exposed as much as her own for a change, so it's a stalemate between them at least.

    I simply don't see how she manages to get any sort of deal through this parliament, given the various stances and how things have been managed, nor can parliament realistically sort it all out in time should said deal not work.

    A second referendum asking..... what?? Serious question,
    A ) Reject the deal and Remain on current terms

    B ) Accept the deal and Leave

    C ) Reject the deal and Leave on WTO terms

    Conducted under AV
    If that was ever proposed Davis, Boris and Fox would resign from the Cabinet immediately and there would be a leadership challenge to May within minutes.

    Assuming she somehow survived a leadership contest and was able to push on with her second referendum plan you think it would get through Parliament as it currently stands?

    It would just finish up in deadlock like everything else.

    There is NO MAJORITY in this Parliament to do anything radical like leaving the EU or having a second referendum to try and over-turn the first referendum.

    Be sensible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,013
    SeanT said:

    Intriguing, POST-Brexit the UK (especially London) has pulled in three times as much investment in tech as any other European country.

    This is NEW investment, not stuff already committed before the vote.

    http://www.cityam.com/287193/uk-tech-industry-pulled-more-than-three-times-much

    Hmm.

    PS - this might explain why, to me, walking around the place, London still feels like a huge boomtown. Seething with people, dynamism and ideas, and far livelier and more inventive than any other great European city.

    That said there are more ominous, distant signs, euro-clearing moving to Frankfurt, etc.

    We shall see.

    London, not Brussels, will remain the effective capital of Europe Brexit or no Brexit
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 15,984
    edited June 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott and William are probably right - a second referendum probably is the only way out of this for May, though what options might be available on the ballot is less clear. Consider:

    She cannot rely on parliamentary arithmetic, and it is increasingly difficult to see how she gets her party's rabblerousers to keep backing her.

    No one else has time to try anything else (it seems obvious they lacked the guts to move earlier, and are now relying on blaming her for the whole mess down the line)

    Trying to arrange another new election does not guarantee a positive outcome for either the country or her party

    Add all that up, and she needs to take the choice out of parliament's hands somehow so it at least has a chance to get passed, and with the added benefit there is greater chance of Labour's divisions on the issue being exposed as much as her own for a change, so it's a stalemate between them at least.

    I simply don't see how she manages to get any sort of deal through this parliament, given the various stances and how things have been managed, nor can parliament realistically sort it all out in time should said deal not work.

    A second referendum asking..... what?? Serious question,
    A ) Reject the deal and Remain on current terms

    B ) Accept the deal and Leave

    C ) Reject the deal and Leave on WTO terms

    Conducted under AV
    It would have to be forced two pref, if someone only votes for one outcome it would be void. You can't split leave into two options without forced two pref.

    Maybe a thread to illuminate us on how it would work?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,714
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Foxy said:

    ...Fertility rate certainly has a relationship with economic growth, but it is chicken and egg. ..

    Bravo!
    ;) well spotted!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    SeanT said:

    The_Taxman said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa ne


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    She will also think that given the other candidates on offer she is the best person to deliver a Brexit that works for all.

    .
    It wasn't entirely absurd safe seat for them, because they aren't getting my vote next time.
    I will decide to vote nearer the time but if Boris is the Tory leader I think the Tories will be in for a rude shock!
    Boris has charisma which is probably the most important attribute needed in any political leader today so I would certainly not count him out
    I was a big fan of Boris but he hasn't been a huge triumph at the FCO. He has charisma but he seems to lack some X factor - Churchill had charisma but ALSO had serious gravitas, when needed.

    Boris doesn't do serious very well. He's ALWAYS looking for the neat gag or the biting sarcasm or the witty way out of a difficult question.

    And right now we want serious.

    But who else is there? It's a pretty poor choice. Gove is unelectable. Davis is so diminished.

    Priti Patel, Sajid Javid or maybe Raab? Fuck knows.
    I would not be surprised to see someone totally out of left field, frankly. I think they need to take a gamble. That might be a relatively light gamble like Javid, being a senior figure for some time but only recently with much profile, or a huge gamble like someone not even in the top figures but who seizes a chance as the Goves and Borises eat each other alive.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 1,005
    SouthamObserver said:

    kle4 said:

    Even recognising that the vote would have been tight, it just looks like very stupid behaviour. What benefit winning one vote today if a group of MPs think they have been deceived, engendering sympathy among others I would think as well? Even if they themselves were stupid for thinking that was what May was promising, it does her no good down the line.

    It seems as if May has figured she needs to pick off three or four rebels to win a vote. She has bought herself a bit of extra time to do that. It looks a very risky move to me - a career ending one - but it has become very clear over a long period of time now that she is totally and utterly out of her depth. She always was, to be fair, but there is no hiding place when you are PM. Boris may be the next to find this out.

    Boris is already out of his depth. He has not learned on the job either. You can just imagine Boris as PM being a bit like Trump in causing crisis and market fluctuations though ill advised comments. Trump does Twitter where as Boris does piffiling balderdash.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,013
    The_Taxman said:

    HYUFD said:

    The_Taxman said:

    kle4 said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Elliot said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Look the only way this is going to be resolved is with another general election.

    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    This needs to happen before October.

    Everyone should stop playing silly buggers and just get the hell on with it. :D

    Indeed. You may be right. There is simply no majority in Parliament for anything re Brexit, other than leaving the EU. I fear we are heading for a Constitutional crisis. But what happens if we get another Hung Parliament? Almost all polling predicts it. We can be rightly sceptical about polling, but it is the best guide we have.


    Well that's on the basis of Theresa May being Con leader. She's a non-starter. They need to get rid, install a populist leader and get on with it.
    They need to change the boundaries before any election.
    She will also think that given the other candidates on offer she is the best person to deliver a Brexit that works for all.

    .
    It wasn't entirely absurd to think that even a year ago. Now it is clear she has no idea, is too weakened by party factions and her own indecision to act given the parliamentary arithmetic, and we just keep kicking the can down the road. A road which is far from endless, this meaning the can kicking is actively harmful.

    It's a good thing for the Tories I'm in a safe seat for them, because they aren't getting my vote next time.
    I will decide to vote nearer the time but if Boris is the Tory leader I think the Tories will be in for a rude shock!
    Boris has charisma which is probably the most important attribute needed in any political leader today so I would certainly not count him out
    No but I would say 75% of the people I know who vote for the Tories really don't like him after the Brexit vote (including me). I would not vote for them if he were leader and I know for certain others would not vote for him as they are more exercised about it than I.
    Really? Survation last summer had only Boris getting a higher Tory voteshare than May against Corbyn, leftwingers loather him as do diehard Remainers but so what, they will never vote for him anyway.

    As Trump, Thatcher, Corbyn, Berlusconi, George W Bush etc have showed if you have some charisma and get your supporters out to vote for you it does not matter if the other side think you are the spawn of Satan or a complete imbecile
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 353
    edited June 2018
    GIN1138 said:




    We're very rapidly heading toward either

    A. A constitutional crisis

    B. A national emergency

    C. Civil unrest

    Or maybe a combination of all three... I don't think we have time to wait for boundary changes.

    This mess is starting to get serious now...

    I think you're right... and, worse, I can't think of anything that will prevent B ) or C). A general election won't alter the fundamental situation that the country is bitterly divided down the middle and opinion hasn't shifted in either direction in the past 2 years... well, except for positions on both sides hardening and a decrease in each side's willingness to listen or try to understand the other.

    This website is a safe space for us all to debate the issues... in real life it's so much harder. I know where most of my friends and family stand on the Brexiteer/Remainer scale and I now choose not to even talk about the topic with those of them who are on the opposite side to me - it's not worth the hassle and I'm certain they feel the same way. I think this scenario is playing out all over the country as we all edge away from engaging with the other side and just discuss the issues with those who agree with us.

    Goodness knows, I've tried to understand what makes Brexiteers tick and I just can't get into that mindset. I'm sure that Brexiteers have also tried to understand what motivates we Remainers too and reached the conclusion that they'll never understand us.

    So what now? I've always said, on here and elsewhere, that I accept the referendum result. But, in my case, accepting it goes very much hand-in-hand with resenting it. My belief in democracy is strong but it's of no comfort at all weighed against the extreme bitterness that I feel towards all Brexiteer politicians (but not, I stress, against ordinary Brexit voters).

    Brexit is going to happen and, when it does, the Brexiteer politicians need to get off their lazy backsides and show the rest of us that it can work. If it doesn't work then they will have broken the country beyond repair.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    The_Taxman said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    kle4 said:

    Even recognising that the vote would have been tight, it just looks like very stupid behaviour. What benefit winning one vote today if a group of MPs think they have been deceived, engendering sympathy among others I would think as well? Even if they themselves were stupid for thinking that was what May was promising, it does her no good down the line.

    It seems as if May has figured she needs to pick off three or four rebels to win a vote. She has bought herself a bit of extra time to do that. It looks a very risky move to me - a career ending one - but it has become very clear over a long period of time now that she is totally and utterly out of her depth. She always was, to be fair, but there is no hiding place when you are PM. Boris may be the next to find this out.

    Boris is already out of his depth. He has not learned on the job either. You can just imagine Boris as PM being a bit like Trump in causing crisis and market fluctuations though ill advised comments. Trump does Twitter where as Boris does piffiling balderdash.
    I always felt Boris was probably a good mayoral candidate, but the highest position that probably would work for him would be something like Culture, Media and Sport.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    One does wonder if the thin majority May had would have been enough for something to get through, whether it be the farce of a plan we now have or something else. Clearly she felt it would be very difficult, which I am sure is correct, and the temptation that she would get a big majority was too much for her to resist, but even so.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 28,497
    edited June 2018
    SeanT said:

    Intriguing, POST-Brexit the UK (especially London) has pulled in three times as much investment in tech as any other European country.

    This is NEW investment, not stuff already committed before the vote.

    http://www.cityam.com/287193/uk-tech-industry-pulled-more-than-three-times-much

    Hmm.

    PS - this might explain why, to me, walking around the place, London still feels like a huge boomtown. Seething with people, dynamism and ideas, and far livelier and more inventive than any other great European city.

    That said there are more ominous, distant signs, euro-clearing moving to Frankfurt, etc.

    We shall see.

    The final paragraph of that article is key:

    “With world-class universities and a diverse international talent pool, London is a centre for creative energy and innovation.”

    This takes us back to perhaps the best piece ever published on PB:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/13/guest-slot-the-impact-of-leaving-the-eu-on-londons-technology-start-up-scene/

    A government that wants to reduce net immigration to 100,000 a year, and that refuses visas to doctors we desperately need, has to come up with a post-Brexit immigration that keeps the talent flowing in.

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,662
    God knows what May tells the Queen every week on her Brexit update.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,714
    SeanT said:

    Intriguing, POST-Brexit the UK (especially London) has pulled in three times as much investment in tech as any other European country.

    This is NEW investment, not stuff already committed before the vote.

    http://www.cityam.com/287193/uk-tech-industry-pulled-more-than-three-times-much

    Hmm.

    PS - this might explain why, to me, walking around the place, London still feels like a huge boomtown. Seething with people, dynamism and ideas, and far livelier and more inventive than any other great European city.

    That said there are more ominous, distant signs, euro-clearing moving to Frankfurt, etc.

    We shall see.

    Much of that sort of service industry falls outside Euro-Single-Market. It is a Pangea-reformed-Market, beyond national or even international law. Like Crypto-currency, it threatens to make existing nations and trans-national institutions obselete.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 22,084
    SouthamObserver said:

    SeanT said:

    Intriguing, POST-Brexit the UK (especially London) has pulled in three times as much investment in tech as any other European country.

    This is NEW investment, not stuff already committed before the vote.

    http://www.cityam.com/287193/uk-tech-industry-pulled-more-than-three-times-much

    Hmm.

    PS - this might explain why, to me, walking around the place, London still feels like a huge boomtown. Seething with people, dynamism and ideas, and far livelier and more inventive than any other great European city.

    That said there are more ominous, distant signs, euro-clearing moving to Frankfurt, etc.

    We shall see.

    The final paragraph of that article is key:

    “With world-class universities and a diverse international talent pool, London is a centre for creative energy and innovation.”

    This takes us back to perhaps the best piece ever published on PB:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/13/guest-slot-the-impact-of-leaving-the-eu-on-londons-technology-start-up-scene/

    A government that wants to reduce net immigration to 100,000 a year, and that refuses visas to doctors we desperately need, has to come up with a post-Brexit immigration that keeps the talent flowing in.

    Well you'll be happy to know the government is seeing sense on skilled migration, e.g. doctors

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/12/government-relax-immigration-rules-overseas-doctors

    I predict the next move will be to take students out of the stats. It's basically only TMay who opposes this move, and as she weakens (or falls) the change will be made.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    Yorkcity said:

    God knows what May tells the Queen every week on her Brexit update.

    Perhaps she asked the Queen for advice and HM said 'Just do what I do - say little, do little, and let people interpret things as they may', with May failing to realise that won't work for a PM who has to, you know, at least attempt to lead.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,013
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD

    ***

    "Boris has charisma which is probably the most important attribute needed in any political leader today so I would certainly not count him out"

    ***

    I was a big fan of Boris but he hasn't been a huge triumph at the FCO. He has charisma but he seems to lack some X factor - Churchill had charisma but ALSO had serious gravitas, when needed.

    Boris doesn't do serious very well. He's ALWAYS looking for the neat gag or the biting sarcasm or the witty way out of a difficult question.

    And right now we want serious.

    But who else is there? It's a pretty poor choice. Gove is unelectable. Davis is so diminished.

    Priti Patel, Sajid Javid or maybe Raab? Fuck knows.

    Gove I agree would get trounced by Corbyn, Davis is too tied to the Brexit talks if May goes and also dull as is Raab.

    Javid has a bit of the John Major boy from Brixton about him and Priti Patel has something about her too and having a BAME leader would annoy the hell out of Corbyn so if not Boris I would go for one of those two
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    Crucial note for me - I've not searched around, but I cannot say I've spotted even a mention of what Corbyn said or thinks about any of this. A pretty sure sign the Tories are eating themselves right now and he is staying right the f*ck out of it if he can?
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 22,084
    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Intriguing, POST-Brexit the UK (especially London) has pulled in three times as much investment in tech as any other European country.

    This is NEW investment, not stuff already committed before the vote.

    http://www.cityam.com/287193/uk-tech-industry-pulled-more-than-three-times-much

    Hmm.

    PS - this might explain why, to me, walking around the place, London still feels like a huge boomtown. Seething with people, dynamism and ideas, and far livelier and more inventive than any other great European city.

    That said there are more ominous, distant signs, euro-clearing moving to Frankfurt, etc.

    We shall see.

    Much of that sort of service industry falls outside Euro-Single-Market. It is a Pangea-reformed-Market, beyond national or even international law. Like Crypto-currency, it threatens to make existing nations and trans-national institutions obselete.
    Agree with all of that. It is very possible the tech explosion that approaches us, from AI to VR to AR to drones, robots, the rest, will make the Brexit debate look like some weird Chrsitian doctrinal argument just before the industrial revolution., Or maybe some argument about horses in towns, 3 years before they invented the car.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 6,714
    kle4 said:

    Crucial note for me - I've not searched around, but I cannot say I've spotted even a mention of what Corbyn said or thinks about any of this. A pretty sure sign the Tories are eating themselves right now and he is staying right the f*ck out of it if he can?

    Too much popcorn scoffing to speak with his mouth full?

    Or maybe just a busy time on the allotment :)
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 3,662
    kle4 said:

    Crucial note for me - I've not searched around, but I cannot say I've spotted even a mention of what Corbyn said or thinks about any of this. A pretty sure sign the Tories are eating themselves right now and he is staying right the f*ck out of it if he can?

    The last two PMQs he has used all the six questions on Brexit .
    By all accounts he did well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Crucial note for me - I've not searched around, but I cannot say I've spotted even a mention of what Corbyn said or thinks about any of this. A pretty sure sign the Tories are eating themselves right now and he is staying right the f*ck out of it if he can?

    Too much popcorn scoffing to speak with his mouth full?

    Or maybe just a busy time on the allotment :)
    "Jeremy you beauty, you've played this one brilliantly, the Tories are in disarray over this vote!
    "The what now? I've been making jam!"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 39,093
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Crucial note for me - I've not searched around, but I cannot say I've spotted even a mention of what Corbyn said or thinks about any of this. A pretty sure sign the Tories are eating themselves right now and he is staying right the f*ck out of it if he can?

    The last two PMQs he has used all the six questions on Brexit .
    By all accounts he did well.
    I meant specifically today - from the reports of PMQs when he does focus on Brexit he does very well, even the right wing press are clear in saying so, which means there's no question he has done well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 23,007
    edited June 2018
    For those of us who remember better footballing days, ITV has Liverpool and Forest sweeping all before them in Europe on now....
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 6,209
    edmundintokyo said:

    GIN1138 said:


    Theresa needs to resign and her successor (Boris) needs to go immediately to the country and seek endorsement for their version of Brexit.

    The practical problem with this is that the voters are going to hate any version of Brexit they may actually get, so if you have another election the parties will inevitably do what they did last time and run on something unachievable, and probably also logically impossible, after which we're back where we started.
    Yes. It looks to me that it's only once we have crashed out with no deal - at which point any change is an improvement on the status quo - that there is any chance that the politicians will be honest about the choices they want to make.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 50,013
    SeanT said:

    Foxy said:

    SeanT said:

    Intriguing, POST-Brexit the UK (especially London) has pulled in three times as much investment in tech as any other European country.

    This is NEW investment, not stuff already committed before the vote.

    http://www.cityam.com/287193/uk-tech-industry-pulled-more-than-three-times-much

    Hmm.

    PS - this might explain why, to me, walking around the place, London still feels like a huge boomtown. Seething with people, dynamism and ideas, and far livelier and more inventive than any other great European city.

    That said there are more ominous, distant signs, euro-clearing moving to Frankfurt, etc.

    We shall see.

    Much of that sort of service industry falls outside Euro-Single-Market. It is a Pangea-reformed-Market, beyond national or even international law. Like Crypto-currency, it threatens to make existing nations and trans-national institutions obselete.
    Agree with all of that. It is very possible the tech explosion that approaches us, from AI to VR to AR to drones, robots, the rest, will make the Brexit debate look like some weird Chrsitian doctrinal argument just before the industrial revolution., Or maybe some argument about horses in towns, 3 years before they invented the car.
    'London also topped the charts for funding into sectors like artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, with fintech being the sector that attracted the most investment at more than £1.79bn'
This discussion has been closed.