I am reassured by arch Brexiteers that such fears are nonsence. Global conglomerates like Honda or Nissan Renault will be more than happy to have a UK factory run in a method diametrically opposed to their means of doing business churning out the highest cost per unit vehicles on the globe.
They'll probably open additional uk factories so that they can exploit our new trading deal with India
Nissan Sunderland is the most efficient car plant in Europe and possibly the world
Yes, because of the frictionless border with the EU that allows for just in time manufacturing
Football matters. This World Cup someone commented there did not seem to be the usual array of branded goods in the supermarket, and I've not seen a single flag. Whence the boost to national harmony and GDP?
Two obvious reasons come to mind. 1. It’s in Russia, and they tried to poison half of Salisbury. 2. The England team is sh!t, and no-one is expecting us to go past the group stages.
If we make the quarter finals then people will actually start to care about it.
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
No she doesn't care about the unity of the Tory Party.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She wanted to be in control and make her own hires.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
Yet she found roles for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.
You and I both know Brexit would be going a lot better if she had made Michael Gove Brexit Secretary.
I'm no fan of Gove (quite the opposite) but I agree he would have made a much better fist of Brexit Secretary. Too late to change now? I think she could safely sack Davis and Fox without major repercussions (we'll Davis might flounce off and cause a bye-election, I guess).
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position. 2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines. 3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge. 4. Any other possible game changing event?
How about the one that was mentioned on here a lot last week - one or more senior Leave cabinet minsters resign, provoking a leadership challenge?
.. which they would lose. I think that leads to my scenario 2 except she doesn't have to fire them.
Worth pointing out that crashing out to WTO terms isn't the same as planned orderly exit to WTO terms. Yes, we absolutely could trade undwr WTO. I dont think its the paradise many seem to think, bit it was always an option.
The problem is that to do so we would need to set in place the physical and human infrastructure to have a hard border and then reconfigure our economy to cope with the logiatics delays / paperwork "red tape" explosion. And we dont have time.
Which ultimately means a game of who blinks first. Yes a crash brexit would be disruptive to the EU. Or at least elements of it - but a lot of members wouldn't be drastically hit and they are a lot bigger tgan we are. The commission will have to balance this out against the threat to the whole project from other rebellions in other member states where rumblings about membership are already there.
A crash brexit next March wouldn't be good for the EU. But it would be catastrophic for us. The people expecting a 23:59 blink from the EU are gambling a huge amount against a hunch. And doing so from the delusional position that their dogmatic position on how trade works is more informed than the fact based reality expressed by everyone who actually trades. Which from the supposed party of free enterprise and free trade is something to behold. When it transpires that the people who trade knew what they were talkinh about after all, how will the Tory party every rebuild its reputation? The ToryKIP wing of the party will be dead soon, but the damage will live longer...
The “gamble” is that the EU wouldn’t actively seek to harm a close ally.
If they do then we shouldn’t be part of that organisation
So if two 7-yr olds are playing catch and one stops the game, punches the first boy, and takes the ball home and the other says they'll tell their mummy, it is the one who says they will tell their mummy that deserves not to be played with again.
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
Deceiving her mps ensures unity?
She isn’t actively thinking of deception, she’s trying to square the circle as best she can.
She isn’t Osborne.
It doesn't matter. They are in effect leaking that they feel deceived, since both sides cannot be right. Therefore they cannot trust her
I am reassured by arch Brexiteers that such fears are nonsence. Global conglomerates like Honda or Nissan Renault will be more than happy to have a UK factory run in a method diametrically opposed to their means of doing business churning out the highest cost per unit vehicles on the globe.
They'll probably open additional uk factories so that they can exploit our new trading deal with India
Nissan Sunderland is the most efficient car plant in Europe and possibly the world
Yes, because of the frictionless border with the EU that allows for just in time manufacturing
err no
its because it's a well organised plant and most of its key suppliers sit within half an hour of the facility
Good thread header as usual Alastair. The fact that she's still there after the past 2 years suggests your analysis is spot on. I continue to expect her to lead the Tories (most likely to defeat) in the 2022 GE.
PS I'm struggling to decide what your keyword is this time - Parthian? Robespierre?
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
No she doesn't care about the unity of the Tory Party.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She wanted to be in control and make her own hires.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
There are two ways she tries to take control. The first is to micromanage everything so as to make those working with her despair and want to leave; the second is to sack them. Her only option as HS under Dave was the former; her power as PM allowed her to do the latter.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
No Tory is going to want to make Corbyn PM.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
I suspect for a number of Tory MPs including Grieve it is. In a temporary national government it doesn't have to be Corbyn who is PM though he will have a strong voice. The focus will be entirely on dealing with Brexit so there will be no left wing legislation, and it will be time limited. Perhaps led by a neutral figure non-threatening figure such as Cable?
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position. 2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines. 3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge. 4. Any other possible game changing event?
How about the one that was mentioned on here a lot last week - one or more senior Leave cabinet minsters resign, provoking a leadership challenge?
.. which they would lose. I think that leads to my scenario 2 except she doesn't have to fire them.
Yes agreed, assuming Alastair's analysis is right, which I think it is.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
No Tory is going to want to make Corbyn PM.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
I suspect for a number of Tory MPs including Grieve it is. In a temporary national government it doesn't have to be Corbyn who is PM though he will have a strong voice. The focus will be entirely on dealing with Brexit so there will be no left wing legislation, and it will be time limited. Perhaps led by a neutral figure non-threatening figure such as Cable?
So you're not asking for only a split in the Tory party, but a split in the Labour party too?
Good luck with that. Once you break the mould, you'll find it hard to put back together.
She did. She was aiming for a Canada style deal, with financial services included and U.K. membership of some key agencies - she especially mentioned pharmaceuticals and security. But the EU, having refused to even look at or think about anything Brexit related until A50 was triggered, then told her this wasn't acceptable to them and she would have to think again.
That's the key reason we're in this mess, and while May was unwise to not have a contingency plan it's somewhat unfair to blame her for the EU's persistent intransigence and failure to follow its own rules (although admittedly the latter could and should have been foreseen given that Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr were involved).
I think the crunch will be the EU summit in a fortnight, it will be clear by then whether there’s any support from the EU for a sensible deal with sufficient time to plan for the outcome.
If it’s clear that no such deal is possible, the UK Gov need to stop talking about Brexit and devote every resource to planning for it. Specifically things like aviation and food supplies, alongside politically popular ideas such as cutting VAT on fuel and tampons, with extended temporary government support for key industries using the £39bn we have to play with.
Once we actually leave, we can then take stock of where we are, both sides can see the advantages and disadvantages of getting back around the table and things will likely progress in the spirit of co-operation - rather than the antagonistic approach being taken currently.
Yes, that’s a good example of a quick win agreement, we could do with a few more along similar lines waiting to go. Liam Fox was here in the Gulf a couple of weeks ago, working on enhancement of trade links and I assume making sure that the UK has suffient O&G contingency supplies next year.
But these preparations don’t seem to fit the British media “narrative” so they never get reported.
She did. She was aiming for a Canada style deal, with financial services included and U.K. membership of some key agencies - she especially mentioned pharmaceuticals and security. But the EU, having refused to even look at or think about anything Brexit related until A50 was triggered, then told her this wasn't acceptable to them and she would have to think again.
That's the key reason we're in this mess, and while May was unwise to not have a contingency plan it's somewhat unfair to blame her for the EU's persistent intransigence and failure to follow its own rules (although admittedly the latter could and should have been foreseen given that Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr were involved).
I think the crunch will be the EU summit in a fortnight, it will be clear by then whether there’s any support from the EU for a sensible deal with sufficient time to plan for the outcome.
If it’s clear that no such deal is possible, the UK Gov need to stop talking about Brexit and devote every resource to planning for it. Specifically things like aviation and food supplies, alongside politically popular ideas such as cutting VAT on fuel and tampons, with extended temporary government support for key industries using the £39bn we have to play with.
Once we actually leave, we can then take stock of where we are, both sides can see the advantages and disadvantages of getting back around the table and things will likely progress in the spirit of co-operation - rather than the antagonistic approach being taken currently.
Yes, that’s a good example of a quick win agreement, we could do with a few more along similar lines waiting to go. Liam Fox was here in the Gulf a couple of weeks ago, working on enhancement of trade links and I assume making sure that the UK has suffient O&G contingency supplies next year.
But these preparations don’t seem to fit the British media “narrative” so they never get reported.
Pah! "Britain is set to agree an ‘open skies’ agreement with America this summer that will keep planes flying between both countries after Brexit"
Well that's a major step forward which leaves absolutely no better off than are before Brexit.
"It will leave many people disillusioned with politics (many are already) and voter turnout is likely to go down (why bother they'll say). And that will be that. Threats of civil unrest are empty."
You don't continue, but if you did, I hear a hint of "a price worth paying." I hope that isn't the case. Trust removed doesn't return easily or quickly. And I fear you may be underestimating the consequences. Farage would be the least of your problems.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
No Tory is going to want to make Corbyn PM.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
I suspect for a number of Tory MPs including Grieve it is. In a temporary national government it doesn't have to be Corbyn who is PM though he will have a strong voice. The focus will be entirely on dealing with Brexit so there will be no left wing legislation, and it will be time limited. Perhaps led by a neutral figure non-threatening figure such as Cable?
So you're not asking for only a split in the Tory party, but a split in the Labour party too?
Good luck with that. Once you break the mould, you'll find it hard to put back together.
No I'm not asking for a split in both parties - though it already exists as could be seen yesterday.
I'm just speculating on possible seismic events that could change the game. The game seems deadlocked but full of tension. It needs an earthquake.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position. 2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines. 3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge. 4. Any other possible game changing event?
How about the one that was mentioned on here a lot last week - one or more senior Leave cabinet minsters resign, provoking a leadership challenge?
.. which they would lose. I think that leads to my scenario 2 except she doesn't have to fire them.
Yes agreed, assuming Alastair's analysis is right, which I think it is.
If the Leavers no confidence May, and she retains the support of her cabinet, she will probably win the vote.
If the Leavers resign and she gets challenged, she is toast. In fact, I am not sure she would even bother defending. Brexit cannot be executed against the express wishes of the Leave campaign - it would obviously lack legitimacy and would destroy the Tory party. Sullen consent is one thing, mass resignation another.
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
Michel Barnier said on Tuesday in a meeting with MEPs at the European Parliament that the European Economic Area (EEA) with a customs union was a possible model for a future relationship, and that the two were not incompatible.
She did. She was aiming for a Canada style deal, with financial services included and U.K. membership of some key agencies - she especially mentioned pharmaceuticals and security. But the EU, having refused to even look at or think about anything Brexit related until A50 was triggered, then told her this wasn't acceptable to them and she would have to think again.
That's the key reason we're in this mess, and while May was unwise to not have a contingency plan it's somewhat unfair to blame her for the EU's persistent intransigence and failure to follow its own rules (although admittedly the latter could and should have been foreseen given that Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr were involved).
I think the crunch will be the EU summit in a fortnight, it will be clear by then whether there’s any support from the EU for a sensible deal with sufficient time to plan for the outcome.
If it’s clear that no such deal is possible, the UK Gov need to stop talking about Brexit and devote every resource to planning for it. Specifically things like aviation and food supplies, alongside politically popular ideas such as cutting VAT on fuel and tampons, with extended temporary government support for key industries using the £39bn we have to play with.
Once we actually leave, we can then take stock of where we are, both sides can see the advantages and disadvantages of getting back around the table and things will likely progress in the spirit of co-operation - rather than the antagonistic approach being taken currently.
Yes, that’s a good example of a quick win agreement, we could do with a few more along similar lines waiting to go. Liam Fox was here in the Gulf a couple of weeks ago, working on enhancement of trade links and I assume making sure that the UK has suffient O&G contingency supplies next year.
But these preparations don’t seem to fit the British media “narrative” so they never get reported.
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
While Tesla claims not to need to raise any more money in the next few years, it's believed that they will want and need to raise billions later this year.
Mind you the behaviour of their share price seems to defy any rational behaviour so I've stopped paying much attention..
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
No she doesn't care about the unity of the Tory Party.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She wanted to be in control and make her own hires.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
Yet she found roles for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.
You and I both know Brexit would be going a lot better if she had made Michael Gove Brexit Secretary.
That proves my point: she tried to bring in factions of the Tory party into her tent that you don’t like.
If it were up to you you’d have a Government stuffed full of Cameroons and no-one from the Right, and just troll them. Fair enough but not everything thinks that the best way to lead and unite the party.
There has to be value in the current Foreign Sec. for next Tory leader at double -figure odds.He believes his destiny as an Old Etonian which means he has been born to rule.He was a hugely successful in a Leadership role in the Leave campaign and is clearly the Leader the 21st century Tory party so badly needs.Forget his tiny peccadilloes and the intrinsic flaws in his character,these are largely the creation of his political opponents,he won London twice.The man's a winner for the Tories.He's a veritable 21st century Churchill.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position. 2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines. 3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge. 4. Any other possible game changing event?
How about the one that was mentioned on here a lot last week - one or more senior Leave cabinet minsters resign, provoking a leadership challenge?
.. which they would lose. I think that leads to my scenario 2 except she doesn't have to fire them.
Yes agreed, assuming Alastair's analysis is right, which I think it is.
If the Leavers no confidence May, and she retains the support of her cabinet, she will probably win the vote.
If the Leavers resign and she gets challenged, she is toast. In fact, I am not sure she would even bother defending. Brexit cannot be executed against the express wishes of the Leave campaign - it would obviously lack legitimacy and would destroy the Tory party. Sullen consent is one thing, mass resignation another.
Not true. First as there is no challenger just a no confidence vote, second as only about 130 out of 318 Tory MPs voted Leave ie less than 50% and third as she still leads the polls
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
I take it he didn't like your advertising pitch :-)
To be fair I was drinking a very acceptable sparkling wine from Gloucestershire over the weekend. Cheaper than many champagnes, although more expensive than a reasonable Prosecco. Not that I drink a lot of such wines.
There has to be value in the current Foreign Sec. for next Tory leader at double -figure odds.He believes his destiny as an Old Etonian which means he has been born to rule.He was a hugely successful in a Leadership role in the Leave campaign and is clearly the Leader the 21st century Tory party so badly needs.Forget his tiny peccadilloes and the intrinsic flaws in his character,these are largely the creation of his political opponents,he won London twice.The man's a winner for the Tories.He's a veritable 21st century ChurchillTrump.
I agree with Alistair, the ERG only have about 70 MPs and only about 130 Tory MPs voted Leave so even if the Brexiteers do force a vote of No Confidence they simply do not have the numbers to topple May who is almost as stubborn as Corbyn anyway in refusing to be budged.
Coupled with the fact Rees Mogg consistently leads every Conservative Home poll as to who Tory members want to succeed May most Tory MPs will not remove nurse for fear of something worse especially as the Tories still lead most polls and there is no need to
Would be amusing to ponder if a political party has ever ditched their leader when still leading the opinion polls?
The Australian Labor Party ditched Kevin Rudd despite leading most polls in 2010 for Julia Gillard and the less said about how that turned out for them the better
Yes, but Rudd was an utter psycho - chaotic, secretive, controlling, obsessed with detail, untrustworthy, unable to make decisions, dysfunctional....hang on a minute...
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
No she doesn't care about the unity of the Tory Party.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She wanted to be in control and make her own hires.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
Yet she found roles for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.
You and I both know Brexit would be going a lot better if she had made Michael Gove Brexit Secretary.
That's mostly Gove's fault. If he hadn't betrayed Boris he could have chosen any job for himself in Cabinet and would be the brains behind the Brexit negotiations. I do think we would be in a better place now had that come to pass. Unfortunately, Gove had to go for the top job in such a way as to guarantee that he wouldn't get it.
Gove is second only to Cameron in my personal blame list for the current mess we are in.
There has to be value in the current Foreign Sec. for next Tory leader at double -figure odds.He believes his destiny as an Old Etonian which means he has been born to rule.He was a hugely successful in a Leadership role in the Leave campaign and is clearly the Leader the 21st century Tory party so badly needs.Forget his tiny peccadilloes and the intrinsic flaws in his character,these are largely the creation of his political opponents,he won London twice.The man's a winner for the Tories.He's a veritable 21st century Churchill.
It’s much more difficult to be sarcastic or even ironic with a keyboard than with the voice.
I do suspect, deep down, the Conservatives are well aware of Stodge's First Law of Politics which states *if you don't hang together, you'll all hang separately".
As for the notion there will be civil unrest and UKIP will sweep to power if Brexit is stopped, that's just fanciful nonsense. Yes, there'll be anger but more sullen resignation and, as someone else has said, it's not the Alpha and Omega of politics.
May's position isn't strong because of the process of removing her which is entirely straightforward but because there is deep disagreement over who the next leader should be, Her position is analogous of that of John Major in the mid-90s. She survives because none of the alternatives have a strong enough base of support (this isn't 2003 when the Party united round Howard as IDS's successor) and the choice is Prime Minister not LOTO so the decision has to be quick and right.
In addition, she's no failure as some will rapidly attest - the Party leads the polls and whether any alternative leader would be doing significantly better remains to be seen. That lead is essentially down to Corbyn so May survives because of Corbyn and politics remains in this deadlocked holding pattern until one or both of them goes.
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
No Tory is going to want to make Corbyn PM.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
I suspect for a number of Tory MPs including Grieve it is. In a temporary national government it doesn't have to be Corbyn who is PM though he will have a strong voice. The focus will be entirely on dealing with Brexit so there will be no left wing legislation, and it will be time limited. Perhaps led by a neutral figure non-threatening figure such as Cable?
A gift for Farage if Cable is installed as PM on 12 MPs to keep us in the single market and customs union
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
No she doesn't care about the unity of the Tory Party.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She wanted to be in control and make her own hires.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
Yet she found roles for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.
You and I both know Brexit would be going a lot better if she had made Michael Gove Brexit Secretary.
That's mostly Gove's fault. If he hadn't betrayed Boris he could have chosen any job for himself in Cabinet and would be the brains behind the Brexit negotiations. I do think we would be inn a better place now had that come to pass. Unfortunately, Gove had to go for the top job in such a way as to guarantee that he wouldn't get it.
Gove is second only to Cameron in my personal blame list for the current mess we are in.
100% agree. He made the wrong call then and is making the wrong call now by telling Leavers that we can change the exit deal after we leave.
But, sadly, I think if May goes down Gove is most likely to take over at this point.
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
No she doesn't care about the unity of the Tory Party.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She wanted to be in control and make her own hires.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
Yet she found roles for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.
You and I both know Brexit would be going a lot better if she had made Michael Gove Brexit Secretary.
Michael Gove as Brexit Secretary would certainly add to the gaiety of the nation, especially once he'd recruited Dominic Cummings.
There has to be value in the current Foreign Sec. for next Tory leader at double -figure odds.He believes his destiny as an Old Etonian which means he has been born to rule.He was a hugely successful in a Leadership role in the Leave campaign and is clearly the Leader the 21st century Tory party so badly needs.Forget his tiny peccadilloes and the intrinsic flaws in his character,these are largely the creation of his political opponents,he won London twice.The man's a winner for the Tories.He's a veritable 21st century ChurchillTrump.
I must add,he has been the best Foreign Sec the UK has ever had,Ignore Johnson at your peril.
That's the key reason we're in this mess, and while May was unwise to not have a contingency plan it's somewhat unfair to blame her for the EU's persistent intransigence and failure to follow its own rules (although admittedly the latter could and should have been foreseen given that Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr were involved).
I think the crunch will be the EU summit in a fortnight, it will be clear by then whether there’s any support from the EU for a sensible deal with sufficient time to plan for the outcome.
If it’s clear that no such deal is possible, the UK Gov need to stop talking about Brexit and devote every resource to planning for it. Specifically things like aviation and food supplies, alongside politically popular ideas such as cutting VAT on fuel and tampons, with extended temporary government support for key industries using the £39bn we have to play with.
Once we actually leave, we can then take stock of where we are, both sides can see the advantages and disadvantages of getting back around the table and things will likely progress in the spirit of co-operation - rather than the antagonistic approach being taken currently.
Yes, that’s a good example of a quick win agreement, we could do with a few more along similar lines waiting to go. Liam Fox was here in the Gulf a couple of weeks ago, working on enhancement of trade links and I assume making sure that the UK has suffient O&G contingency supplies next year.
But these preparations don’t seem to fit the British media “narrative” so they never get reported.
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
We share the view that a trade deal with the EU would be good news for everyone.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
That's the key reason we're in this mess, and while May was unwise to not have a contingency plan it's somewhat unfair to blame her for the EU's persistent intransigence and failure to follow its own rules (although admittedly the latter could and should have been foreseen given that Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr were involved).
I think the crunch will be the EU summit in a fortnight, it will be clear by then whether there’s any support from the EU for a sensible deal with sufficient time to plan for the outcome.
If it’s clear that no such deal is possible, the UK Gov need to stop talking about Brexit and devote every resource to planning for it. Specifically things like aviation and food supplies, alongside politically popular ideas such as cutting VAT on fuel and tampons, with extended temporary government support for key industries using the £39bn we have to play with.
Once we actually leave, we can then take stock of where we are, both sides can see the advantages and disadvantages of getting back around the table and things will likely progress in the spirit of co-operation - rather than the antagonistic approach being taken currently.
Yes, that’s a good example of a quick win agreement, we could do with a few more along similar lines waiting to go. Liam Fox was here in the Gulf a couple of weeks ago, working on enhancement of trade links and I assume making sure that the UK has suffient O&G contingency supplies next year.
But these preparations don’t seem to fit the British media “narrative” so they never get reported.
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
We share the view that a trade deal with the EU would be good news for everyone.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
Like the alliteration, if not the thought behind it.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
No Tory is going to want to make Corbyn PM.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
I suspect for a number of Tory MPs including Grieve it is. In a temporary national government it doesn't have to be Corbyn who is PM though he will have a strong voice. The focus will be entirely on dealing with Brexit so there will be no left wing legislation, and it will be time limited. Perhaps led by a neutral figure non-threatening figure such as Cable?
A gift for Farage if Cable is installed as PM on 12 MPs to keep us in the single market and customs union
A gift for me if Cable is installed as PM (£4,000+)
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position. 2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines. 3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge. 4. Any other possible game changing event?
How about the one that was mentioned on here a lot last week - one or more senior Leave cabinet minsters resign, provoking a leadership challenge?
.. which they would lose. I think that leads to my scenario 2 except she doesn't have to fire them.
Yes agreed, assuming Alastair's analysis is right, which I think it is.
If the Leavers no confidence May, and she retains the support of her cabinet, she will probably win the vote.
If the Leavers resign and she gets challenged, she is toast. In fact, I am not sure she would even bother defending. Brexit cannot be executed against the express wishes of the Leave campaign - it would obviously lack legitimacy and would destroy the Tory party. Sullen consent is one thing, mass resignation another.
Not true. First as there is no challenger just a no confidence vote, second as only about 130 out of 318 Tory MPs voted Leave ie less than 50% and third as she still leads the polls
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
No Tory is going to want to make Corbyn PM.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
I suspect for a number of Tory MPs including Grieve it is. In a temporary national government it doesn't have to be Corbyn who is PM though he will have a strong voice. The focus will be entirely on dealing with Brexit so there will be no left wing legislation, and it will be time limited. Perhaps led by a neutral figure non-threatening figure such as Cable?
A gift for Farage if Cable is installed as PM on 12 MPs to keep us in the single market and customs union
A gift for me if Cable is installed as PM (£4,000+)
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
I take it he didn't like your advertising pitch :-)
To be fair I was drinking a very acceptable sparkling wine from Gloucestershire over the weekend. Cheaper than many champagnes, although more expensive than a reasonable Prosecco. Not that I drink a lot of such wines.
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
No she doesn't care about the unity of the Tory Party.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She wanted to be in control and make her own hires.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
Yet she found roles for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.
You and I both know Brexit would be going a lot better if she had made Michael Gove Brexit Secretary.
I would have had Gove in DExEU, Javid at the FCO and Kwasi in Trade. If she had done that not only would Brexit be in the hands of much better people, she would have carried much more of the party with her on it. Most of the issue with customs arrangements is Liam Fox doing a fucking terrible job.
The prospect of No Deal is unlikely. There will be turmoil in the financial markets as the deadline approaches. And there will be absolute carnage if a week before the deadline, there are not signs that people are talking. This will concentrate the minds of almost all the politicians wonderfully.
The prospect of Remain is unlikely, even with another referendum. I cannot see over-ruling the first Referendum result leading to anything other than greater bitterness. Amongst other things, no-one in the EU is likely to trust us again, and so we can’t even be effective members of the EU if we (sullenly & sulkily) changed our minds and rejoined. As Lord Hill said on resigning as EU commissioner, “What is done cannot be undone”.
Brexit Fudge is still the most likely. In the end, with huffing and puffing, I think many Brexiteers will accept almost any Brexit, as the direction of travel will have been set. (I would).
Although T. May is coming in for much criticism, it is possible to see her as a mildly heroic figure. This is a bloody thankless task. She is bound to disappoint almost everyone. And there are bucketloads of shit waiting to be poured over her by many people, no matter what happens.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
No Tory is going to want to make Corbyn PM.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
I suspect for a number of Tory MPs including Grieve it is. In a temporary national government it doesn't have to be Corbyn who is PM though he will have a strong voice. The focus will be entirely on dealing with Brexit so there will be no left wing legislation, and it will be time limited. Perhaps led by a neutral figure non-threatening figure such as Cable?
A gift for Farage if Cable is installed as PM on 12 MPs to keep us in the single market and customs union
There has to be value in the current Foreign Sec. for next Tory leader at double -figure odds.He believes his destiny as an Old Etonian which means he has been born to rule.He was a hugely successful in a Leadership role in the Leave campaign and is clearly the Leader the 21st century Tory party so badly needs.Forget his tiny peccadilloes and the intrinsic flaws in his character,these are largely the creation of his political opponents,he won London twice.The man's a winner for the Tories.He's a veritable 21st century ChurchillTrump.
I must add,he has been the best Foreign Sec the UK has ever had,Ignore Johnson at your peril.
I would agree if there was any method in his madness but I can't discern any particular advance of the UK's interests that he is either aiming at or that he has achieved.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position. 2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines. 3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge. 4. Any other possible game changing event?
How about the one that was mentioned on here a lot last week - one or more senior Leave cabinet minsters resign, provoking a leadership challenge?
.. which they would lose. I think that leads to my scenario 2 except she doesn't have to fire them.
Yes agreed, assuming Alastair's analysis is right, which I think it is.
If the Leavers no confidence May, and she retains the support of her cabinet, she will probably win the vote.
If the Leavers resign and she gets challenged, she is toast. In fact, I am not sure she would even bother defending. Brexit cannot be executed against the express wishes of the Leave campaign - it would obviously lack legitimacy and would destroy the Tory party. Sullen consent is one thing, mass resignation another.
Not true. First as there is no challenger just a no confidence vote, second as only about 130 out of 318 Tory MPs voted Leave ie less than 50% and third as she still leads the polls
You make a very good point which is often ignored. The TORY MPs were also overwhelmingly for Remain.
If the country starts to wobble (quite likely the way things are going) and the polls show a reasonable shift away from Leave the 75% Remain majority among MPs might start to assert themselves
Furthermore when most Tory MPs would prefer to Remain why on earth would they support the likes of Boris Leadsome Fox or the Brexit Bulldog over the quiet Remainer Theresa May?
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position. 2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines. 3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge. 4. Any other possible game changing event?
How about the one that was mentioned on here a lot last week - one or more senior Leave cabinet minsters resign, provoking a leadership challenge?
.. which they would lose. I think that leads to my scenario 2 except she doesn't have to fire them.
Yes agreed, assuming Alastair's analysis is right, which I think it is.
If the Leavers no confidence May, and she retains the support of her cabinet, she will probably win the vote.
If the Leavers resign and she gets challenged, she is toast. In fact, I am not sure she would even bother defending. Brexit cannot be executed against the express wishes of the Leave campaign - it would obviously lack legitimacy and would destroy the Tory party. Sullen consent is one thing, mass resignation another.
Not true. First as there is no challenger just a no confidence vote, second as only about 130 out of 318 Tory MPs voted Leave ie less than 50% and third as she still leads the polls
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
I actually think she is doing a pretty good job in a very hard situation. She obviously screwed up her re-election campaign, which put her into this predicament. But once in it, she has done a near impossible task of negotiating the biggest issue since post-WW2 despite rebellious people on both sides, an intransigent EU and an utterly cynical Labour Party and press.
While Tesla claims not to need to raise any more money in the next few years, it's believed that they will want and need to raise billions later this year.
Mind you the behaviour of their share price seems to defy any rational behaviour so I've stopped paying much attention..
There’s some very interesting things going on with Tesla shares. They are the most shorted stock in history, and people are having to buy in order to cash out and cut their losses, which pushes the price up even higher.
There’s a suspiciously high number of negative stories in the financial and business press about them, which on closer scrutiny don’t quite stand up, the suspicion is that speculators are trying every tactic to get the share price down. Their production issues aren’t much different to those experienced by any large new plant, but seem disproportionally to be in the news.
There’s a line of thought that the number of hedged positions of Tesla stock far exceeds the number of available shares, so we could end up in a situation similar to what happened with VW a few years ago where the price spikes massively, as the shorties are forced to buy them at any price to cover their positions.
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
No she doesn't care about the unity of the Tory Party.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She wanted to be in control and make her own hires.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
Yet she found roles for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.
You and I both know Brexit would be going a lot better if she had made Michael Gove Brexit Secretary.
I would have had Gove in DExEU, Javid at the FCO and Kwasi in Trade. If she had done that not only would Brexit be in the hands of much better people, she would have carried much more of the party with her on it. Most of the issue with customs arrangements is Liam Fox doing a fucking terrible job.
Javid's credibility was gone after the Referendum and he had been deeply unimpressive during the earlier steel crisis.
There is no way he would have been given such a prominent job then.
Michel Barnier said on Tuesday in a meeting with MEPs at the European Parliament that the European Economic Area (EEA) with a customs union was a possible model for a future relationship, and that the two were not incompatible.
I think Barnier is right. Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway are in the Single Market (with some exemptions) but Switzerland has its own bilateral arrangements.
The problem with full EEA membership is it signs us up to the Four Freedoms including FoM - we need a Swiss-style bilateral arrangement of our own with the EU (as a member of EFTA or not).
The crux now seems to be if a "Customs Arrangement" can mimic the benefits of the full CU but still allow us the freedom to go out and get out our own trade deals. If that could be agreed, it would be a big success for the Prime Minister (subject to us getting some favourable trade deals beyond the "quick wins" from the Anglosphere). I suspect that's where the negotiations behind the scenes are - trying to put together a CU-lite that does the regulatory job of the CU without locking us into the full details.
Liam Fox has form in declaring for the Tory leadership.Once he has been offered a post in the Cabinet,he will then demand his followers switch to whichever particular candidate has offered him the best sinecure.Back to lay as a trade.
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
I take it he didn't like your advertising pitch :-)
To be fair I was drinking a very acceptable sparkling wine from Gloucestershire over the weekend. Cheaper than many champagnes, although more expensive than a reasonable Prosecco. Not that I drink a lot of such wines.
Edit. Inability to spell West Country names.
personally I prefer Engilsh Fizz to champagne.
Nyetimber is my favourite
Went to a tasting of East Anglian wines on Friday evening and the Gloucestershire place over the weekend. Somewhat to my surprise found two very acceptable English reds, one in the east and one in the west.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge.
No Tory is going to want to make Corbyn PM.
Brexit is not the Alpha and Omega of UK politics.
I suspect for a number of Tory MPs including Grieve it is. In a temporary national government it doesn't have to be Corbyn who is PM though he will have a strong voice. The focus will be entirely on dealing with Brexit so there will be no left wing legislation, and it will be time limited. Perhaps led by a neutral figure non-threatening figure such as Cable?
A gift for Farage if Cable is installed as PM on 12 MPs to keep us in the single market and customs union
vs Farage with 0 MPs?
UKIP got more votes than the LDs in the last general election before Brexit, if Brexit is cancelled UKIP would see a quicker revival than Lazarus
Liam Fox has form in declaring for the Tory leadership.Once he has been offered a post in the Cabinet,he will then demand his followers switch to whichever particular candidate has offered him the best sinecure.Back to lay as a trade.
Are there Conservative MPs so degraded that they actually follow Liam Fox ???
Having seen some of the debate in the commons yesterday, what struck me was Pro-Bexit MP's who kept saying 'the EU doesn't want us to leave', and that the amendments were 'wrecking amendments' designed to keep us in.
I think this is probably wrong now, given the EU's approach to the negotiations, I think they now actually want the UK to leave but on the messiest most chaotic terms possible. They'll achieve 2 strategic goals through this:
1. Be rid of the biggest 'anti federalist' voice in the club, and thus make political integration much easier and quicker.
2. Provide a lesson to other members not to think about doing the same thing.
In fact I believe were we to change our mind and try and stay in, the EU would probably make this impossible by insisting on Schengen and Euro membership, knowing full well this would be an impossible deal for any UK government.
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position. 2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines. 3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge. 4. Any other possible game changing event?
How about the one that was mentioned on here a lot last week - one or more senior Leave cabinet minsters resign, provoking a leadership challenge?
.. which they would lose. I think that leads to my scenario 2 except she doesn't have to fire them.
Yes agreed, assuming Alastair's analysis is right, which I think it is.
If the Leavers no confidence May, and she retains the support of her cabinet, she will probably win the vote.
If the Leavers resign and she gets challenged, she is toast. In fact, I am not sure she would even bother defending. Brexit cannot be executed against the express wishes of the Leave campaign - it would obviously lack legitimacy and would destroy the Tory party. Sullen consent is one thing, mass resignation another.
Not true. First as there is no challenger just a no confidence vote, second as only about 130 out of 318 Tory MPs voted Leave ie less than 50% and third as she still leads the polls
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
No 160 Tory MPs are not going to vote to replace May with Boris or Rees Mogg which would be the most likely alternative if Leavers win a no confidence vote in May, hence she will survive any no confidence vote.
May still leads the polls and is the only one capable of getting any sort of deal with the EU while keeping most Leave voters on board so she stays
The tensions in Government and parliament are building relentlessly as the cliff edge approaches. The foreshocks are occurring more frequently as we head towards a major seismic event.
What would be a major seismic event?
1. Mrs May resigns - ill health or impossible position. 2. Mrs May finally loses patience and shows decisive leadership, firing some members of her cabinet and revises her red lines. 3. A number of Remain ministers resign and join a large cross party group (40+ Tories plus opposition parties) to form a temporary national government to avoid the cliff edge. 4. Any other possible game changing event?
How about the one that was mentioned on here a lot last week - one or more senior Leave cabinet minsters resign, provoking a leadership challenge?
.. which they would lose. I think that leads to my scenario 2 except she doesn't have to fire them.
Yes agreed, assuming Alastair's analysis is right, which I think it is.
If the Leavers no confidence May, and she retains the support of her cabinet, she will probably win the vote.
If the Leavers resign and she gets challenged, she is toast. In fact, I am not sure she would even bother defending. Brexit cannot be executed against the express wishes of the Leave campaign - it would obviously lack legitimacy and would destroy the Tory party. Sullen consent is one thing, mass resignation another.
Not true. First as there is no challenger just a no confidence vote, second as only about 130 out of 318 Tory MPs voted Leave ie less than 50% and third as she still leads the polls
You make a very good point which is often ignored. The TORY MPs were also overwhelmingly for Remain.
If the country starts to wobble (quite likely the way things are going) and the polls show a reasonable shift away from Leave the 75% Remain majority among MPs might start to assert themselves
Furthermore when most Tory MPs would prefer to Remain why on earth would they support the likes of Boris Leadsome Fox or the Brexit Bulldog over the quiet Remainer Theresa May?
Agreed. Though Survation had it 50% Leave 50% Remain on Sunday in any EU ref2
Yes, that’s a good example of a quick win agreement, we could do with a few more along similar lines waiting to go. Liam Fox was here in the Gulf a couple of weeks ago, working on enhancement of trade links and I assume making sure that the UK has suffient O&G contingency supplies next year.
But these preparations don’t seem to fit the British media “narrative” so they never get reported.
While that’s good news the devil in the article was that we’ve still not negotiated a similar agreement with the EU. Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
We share the view that a trade deal with the EU would be good news for everyone.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
Like the alliteration, if not the thought behind it.
Transport should be a pretty simple thing to roll over with minimal effort, as the consequences of not doing so are huge on both sides. But there has to be a will on the EU side for that deal to be done. Even under the worst crash-out scenario, I’d expect everyone involved to have planes back flying within a few days.
Football matters. This World Cup someone commented there did not seem to be the usual array of branded goods in the supermarket, and I've not seen a single flag. Whence the boost to national harmony and GDP?
No space on the shelves, as too many strawberries?
UKIP got more votes than the LDs in the last general election before Brexit, if Brexit is cancelled UKIP would see a quicker revival than Lazarus
No it wouldn't and endlessly repeating it doesn't make it accurate.
IF a Conservative Prime Minister announces he or she believes it's in the country's best interests for the A50 process to be terminated and for the UK to remain in the EU pending further renegotiation , do you think there will be "civil unrest" ?
Most people will shrug their shoulders and life will go on. The Farages will huff and puff but what power do they have - no MPs, hardly any Councillors and how many of the current Conservative or Labour Parliamentary parties will defect to any reborn UKIP ? Last time it was two and whatever happened to them ?
I suspect Conservative loyalists would soon be out and about congratulating the Prime Minister for a heroic course of action, putting the country before Party etc, etc.
It really does seem as though inflation is back under control. Massive rises in transport costs due to rising fuel costs, but everything else fell a little to make up for it and inflation held pretty steady. Oil prices seem to have begun holding steady and look like falling so we may see inflation drop a little bit closer to the 2% target.
Good article by Alastair. I think the analysis is broadly correct, although the ERG might misjudge things.
One important point which gets lost in the media's febrile speculation is that ditching Theresa May wouldn't make any positive difference to the Brexit position anyway. The principal reason she is weak and wobbly, and having to kludge together feeble and unstable compromises, isn't to do with her personality or lack of leadership skills, but for the more pressing reason that she hasn't got a majority. Changing leader won't alter that, and in fact would be likely to make things worse. For all her faults, she has at least managed to keep a balance between the Brexiteer ultras and the Continuity Remainers; a new leader who was more acceptable to either one of these groups would be less acceptable to the other, thereby increasing instability and making revolts more likely.
It is, in other words, a God-awful mess however you slice it.
Mr. Sandpit, is it ISIS? I thought the Houthi rebels were backed by Iran.
Mr. Stodge, I don't know about civil unrest, but even many of those who voted to Remain would be disconcerted, at least, by having a referendum then the result being overturned by the political class.
Good thread header as usual Alastair. The fact that she's still there after the past 2 years suggests your analysis is spot on. I continue to expect her to lead the Tories (most likely to defeat) in the 2022 GE.
PS I'm struggling to decide what your keyword is this time - Parthian? Robespierre?
"A Parthian shot". Well I learned something new today, anyway.
Good article by Alastair. I think the analysis is broadly correct, although the ERG might misjudge things.
One important point which gets lost in the media's febrile speculation is that ditching Theresa May wouldn't make any positive difference to the Brexit position anyway. The principal reason she is weak and wobbly, and having to kludge together feeble and unstable compromises, isn't to do with her personality or lack of leadership skills, but for the more pressing reason that she hasn't got a majority. Changing leader won't alter that, and in fact would be likely to make things worse. For all her faults, she has at least managed to keep a balance between the Brexiteer ultras and the Continuity Remainers; a new leader who was more acceptable to either one of these groups would be less acceptable to the other, thereby increasing instability and making revolts more likely.
It is, in other words, a God-awful mess however you slice it.
The nation is paying the price for Nick Timothy's hubris.
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
I take it he didn't like your advertising pitch :-)
To be fair I was drinking a very acceptable sparkling wine from Gloucestershire over the weekend. Cheaper than many champagnes, although more expensive than a reasonable Prosecco. Not that I drink a lot of such wines.
Edit. Inability to spell West Country names.
personally I prefer Engilsh Fizz to champagne.
Nyetimber is my favourite
Typical - let them eat cake, eh? Not everyone can afford Nyetimber you know, Alan.
Having seen some of the debate in the commons yesterday, what struck me was Pro-Bexit MP's who kept saying 'the EU doesn't want us to leave', and that the amendments were 'wrecking amendments' designed to keep us in.
I think this is probably wrong now, given the EU's approach to the negotiations, I think they now actually want the UK to leave but on the messiest most chaotic terms possible. They'll achieve 2 strategic goals through this:
1. Be rid of the biggest 'anti federalist' voice in the club, and thus make political integration much easier and quicker.
2. Provide a lesson to other members not to think about doing the same thing.
In fact I believe were we to change our mind and try and stay in, the EU would probably make this impossible by insisting on Schengen and Euro membership, knowing full well this would be an impossible deal for any UK government.
The rebate would definitely be eliminated and the UK would have no influence at all inside the club after going through all this to change our minds again. That is why everyone should have united to seek the best deal for Britain. Unfortunately a big chunk of Remainers in the media, Lords, Labour and Europhile Tories instead conspired to screw over their own country's negotiating hand. This last push to effectively promise we will sign whatever the EU gives us is the worst of all. I always thought the "traitor" term was going too far but now I am not so sure.
UKIP got more votes than the LDs in the last general election before Brexit, if Brexit is cancelled UKIP would see a quicker revival than Lazarus
No it wouldn't and endlessly repeating it doesn't make it accurate.
IF a Conservative Prime Minister announces he or she believes it's in the country's best interests for the A50 process to be terminated and for the UK to remain in the EU pending further renegotiation , do you think there will be "civil unrest" ?
Most people will shrug their shoulders and life will go on. The Farages will huff and puff but what power do they have - no MPs, hardly any Councillors and how many of the current Conservative or Labour Parliamentary parties will defect to any reborn UKIP ? Last time it was two and whatever happened to them ?
I suspect Conservative loyalists would soon be out and about congratulating the Prime Minister for a heroic course of action, putting the country before Party etc, etc.
In the short-term it would depend on whether the PM in this scenario carried the support of the right-wing press. I think that is unlikely.
Michel Barnier said on Tuesday in a meeting with MEPs at the European Parliament that the European Economic Area (EEA) with a customs union was a possible model for a future relationship, and that the two were not incompatible.
I think Barnier is right. Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway are in the Single Market (with some exemptions) but Switzerland has its own bilateral arrangements.
The problem with full EEA membership is it signs us up to the Four Freedoms including FoM - we need a Swiss-style bilateral arrangement of our own with the EU (as a member of EFTA or not).
The crux now seems to be if a "Customs Arrangement" can mimic the benefits of the full CU but still allow us the freedom to go out and get out our own trade deals. If that could be agreed, it would be a big success for the Prime Minister (subject to us getting some favourable trade deals beyond the "quick wins" from the Anglosphere). I suspect that's where the negotiations behind the scenes are - trying to put together a CU-lite that does the regulatory job of the CU without locking us into the full details.
I think being able to do our own free trade deals is a red herring. It hardly figured in the referendum debate or in the reasons people gave for voting leave. The benefits are miniscule compared with staying in the CU. May has it as a red line simply to placate her hard Brexiteers. If she gave up on that, (and fired Fox) it would unblock the whole deadlock.
It’s a good article but it misses out one important factor that I think some non-Conservatives struggle to understand: Theresa May cares about the unity of the Conservative Party.
She has been a loyal Conservative all her life. For her, a confidence vote being called would be a failure regardless of the outcome. I agree she’d very probably win it, but the last thing she wants to do is to use it to factionalise and isolate one wing of the Tories again and work with other parties in the house to pass Brexit. That’s not who she is or how she thinks, even if others around her do.
Therefore, expect supreme efforts from her to keep everyone on board under all circumstances. Personally, I think she’d be happy to have as much detail as possible deferred to GE2022 so the Tory party can fight and win that in one piece. It’s only 4 years away, and a lot of the new customs and agriculture policies won’t take effect until afterward, so it’s not a fanciful goal either.
No she doesn't care about the unity of the Tory Party.
The moment she became PM what did she do, she fired four people who had clashed with her previously.
Gove, Raab, Osborne, and Vaizey.
She wanted to be in control and make her own hires.
That’s not the same thing as wanting to isolate a whole wing of the party.
Yet she found roles for David Davis and the disgraced Liam Fox.
You and I both know Brexit would be going a lot better if she had made Michael Gove Brexit Secretary.
I would have had Gove in DExEU, Javid at the FCO and Kwasi in Trade. If she had done that not only would Brexit be in the hands of much better people, she would have carried much more of the party with her on it. Most of the issue with customs arrangements is Liam Fox doing a fucking terrible job.
Javid's credibility was gone after the Referendum and he had been deeply unimpressive during the earlier steel crisis.
There is no way he would have been given such a prominent job then.
In addition, May's cabinet's are designed to stop potential challenger's to her having any success of boosting their standing.
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
No 160 Tory MPs are not going to vote to replace May with Boris or Rees Mogg which would be the most likely alternative if Leavers win a no confidence vote in May, hence she will survive any no confidence vote.
May still leads the polls and is the only one capable of getting any sort of deal with the EU while keeping most Leave voters on board so she stays
You are living the Tory/May fiction where there is a soft Brexit deal to be done, it is just a question of a bit of compromise. There isn't. There is only no deal or surrender (EEA+CU) which would cross every red line your heroine set for herself.
There is no outcome that May can deliver that will satisfy anyone.
Ultimately, Tory MPs will realise that the electorate will tolerate no deal if led by someone who is prepared to show some fight and vision (and, frankly, blame the EU for everything), but that they will never tolerate surrender.
UKIP got more votes than the LDs in the last general election before Brexit, if Brexit is cancelled UKIP would see a quicker revival than Lazarus
No it wouldn't and endlessly repeating it doesn't make it accurate.
IF a Conservative Prime Minister announces he or she believes it's in the country's best interests for the A50 process to be terminated and for the UK to remain in the EU pending further renegotiation , do you think there will be "civil unrest" ?
Most people will shrug their shoulders and life will go on. The Farages will huff and puff but what power do they have - no MPs, hardly any Councillors and how many of the current Conservative or Labour Parliamentary parties will defect to any reborn UKIP ? Last time it was two and whatever happened to them ?
I suspect Conservative loyalists would soon be out and about congratulating the Prime Minister for a heroic course of action, putting the country before Party etc, etc.
If you are so arrogant to think 17 million Leave voters will politely go along with their vote being cancelled and no restoration of sovereignty and no new immigration controls when they got 52% of the vote in 2016 you clearly have learnt nothing from the last few years.
If Yes got 45% in 2014 and the SNP got 50% in 2015 and almost won every seat there is no reason UKIP could not repeat the feat given Leave got 52% if we stay in the EU despite the Leave vote
Mr. Sandpit, interesting if no deal gets done, though. Who gets the blame?
It may be just my biases talking, but I think that if the EU decide to treat the tourist industry with the UK as if we were North Korea, it would look very bad on them indeed.
There are millions of EU jobs that rely on tourism, and they all work with very tight margins. I can also think of one famously very vocal Irishman who would be spitting bullets on the issue.
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
No 160 Tory MPs are not going to vote to replace May with Boris or Rees Mogg which would be the most likely alternative if Leavers win a no confidence vote in May, hence she will survive any no confidence vote.
May still leads the polls and is the only one capable of getting any sort of deal with the EU while keeping most Leave voters on board so she stays
You are living the Tory/May fiction where there is a soft Brexit deal to be done, it is just a question of a bit of compromise. There isn't. There is only no deal or surrender (EEA+CU) which would cross every red line your heroine set for herself.
There is no outcome that May can deliver that will satisfy anyone.
Ultimately, Tory MPs will realise that the electorate will tolerate no deal if led by someone who is prepared to show some fight and vision (and, frankly, blame the EU for everything), but that they will never tolerate surrender.
No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM
Good article by Alastair. I think the analysis is broadly correct, although the ERG might misjudge things.
One important point which gets lost in the media's febrile speculation is that ditching Theresa May wouldn't make any positive difference to the Brexit position anyway. The principal reason she is weak and wobbly, and having to kludge together feeble and unstable compromises, isn't to do with her personality or lack of leadership skills, but for the more pressing reason that she hasn't got a majority. Changing leader won't alter that, and in fact would be likely to make things worse. For all her faults, she has at least managed to keep a balance between the Brexiteer ultras and the Continuity Remainers; a new leader who was more acceptable to either one of these groups would be less acceptable to the other, thereby increasing instability and making revolts more likely.
It is, in other words, a God-awful mess however you slice it.
The nation is paying the price for Nick Timothy's hubris.
Or alternatively it's the result of people believing opinion polls and acting accordingly - and then the voters on 23 June 2016 and 8 June 2017 (as well as November 2016) didn't deliver what was expected of them.
Timothy and co wrote a manifesto on the basis of polls suggesting a 140 seat plus majority. Cameron assumed in his negotiations with the EU that the UK would overwhelmingly vote remain so he didn't need to make much effort. Even on 23 June 2016 at 10pm his private polling said remain had won by 10 per cent.
You can blame hubris - but the polling industry hugely affected events.
As an aside, if anyone has two hours to spend they should check out Ladbrokes' specialist on the World Cup. Millions of them (well, probably 40-60. Still a lot).
Michel Barnier said on Tuesday in a meeting with MEPs at the European Parliament that the European Economic Area (EEA) with a customs union was a possible model for a future relationship, and that the two were not incompatible.
I think Barnier is right. Iceland, Lichtenstein and Norway are in the Single Market (with some exemptions) but Switzerland has its own bilateral arrangements.
The problem with full EEA membership is it signs us up to the Four Freedoms including FoM - we need a Swiss-style bilateral arrangement of our own with the EU (as a member of EFTA or not).
The crux now seems to be if a "Customs Arrangement" can mimic the benefits of the full CU but still allow us the freedom to go out and get out our own trade deals. If that could be agreed, it would be a big success for the Prime Minister (subject to us getting some favourable trade deals beyond the "quick wins" from the Anglosphere). I suspect that's where the negotiations behind the scenes are - trying to put together a CU-lite that does the regulatory job of the CU without locking us into the full details.
I think being able to do our own free trade deals is a red herring. It hardly figured in the referendum debate or in the reasons people gave for voting leave. The benefits are miniscule compared with staying in the CU. May has it as a red line simply to placate her hard Brexiteers. If she gave up on that, (and fired Fox) it would unblock the whole deadlock.
I disagree. It was important to a big chunk of the pro-Leavers in media, think tanks and business and it's one of those things where the economic benefits could well far surpass the consensus estimates. You only need one innovative company from elsewhere to disrupt the UK sector to have a big productivity boost, and being first in to some of the emerging markets could pay windfalls.
Even more importantly, from a political perspective, is it's the best way to have media stories showing Brexit is going well. Announcing a new trade deal every month or two in the run-up to an election is the best way to move past all the negative stories, and the media is almost forced to cover them. It also creates winners in business and jobs they can visibly point to, to contrast with some of the losers in the City.
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
No 160 Tory MPs are not going to vote to replace May with Boris or Rees Mogg which would be the most likely alternative if Leavers win a no confidence vote in May, hence she will survive any no confidence vote.
May still leads the polls and is the only one capable of getting any sort of deal with the EU while keeping most Leave voters on board so she stays
You are living the Tory/May fiction where there is a soft Brexit deal to be done, it is just a question of a bit of compromise. There isn't. There is only no deal or surrender (EEA+CU) which would cross every red line your heroine set for herself.
There is no outcome that May can deliver that will satisfy anyone.
Ultimately, Tory MPs will realise that the electorate will tolerate no deal if led by someone who is prepared to show some fight and vision (and, frankly, blame the EU for everything), but that they will never tolerate surrender.
Unfortunately some Tory MPs answer to Brussels, not the public.
I think the government needs to concentrate on a much narrower deal and then negotiate from the outside. A mutual zero tariff agreement is probably where I would have started and then extended that to customs pre-clearance for key industries like automobile/aviation/defence manufacturing. I think there would be no real need for regulatory divergence in goods given that most standards setting bodies sit apart from the EU anyway. The key difference is that the UK would have its own voice on those bodies rather than deferring to the EU which really only cares about protecting French agriculture and German car companies.
Very good piece Alastair. I agree that the mechanism makes it more difficult to replace Mrs May than many think.
There’s also the issue of timing. There would be a clamour from the membership to have the say in the new leader, which they were denied last time when Mrs Leadsom withdrew, so the contest will take take a couple of months in practice at a time when the A50 clock is running down.
The MPs would be acutely aware of how this looks, so may hold off a challenge in order to see the Brexit legislation through Parliament - probably with a fair amount of fudge as we saw yesterday.
Also agree about JRM. I’m still not sure that he’s either actually interested in standing, nor has the support of close to a third of MPs required to get on the members’ ballot.
It is a good piece, which is quite persuasive. I’m not convinced about the timing argument; if there were a candidate to replace her with acknowledged leadership skills, I think it would happen anyway. May’s constrant prevarication is running down the A50 clock in very much the same way, so that argument is moot. There is no alternative in the cabinet with a real prospect of making enough those on both sides of the Brexit schism think the gamble might just be worth it. The team of mediocrities is what will save her for now.
Does anyone know why Wera Hobhouse (Lib - Bath) was the only MP from her party to vote on the devolved powers amendment (No 177) last night? I am assuming she did in fact vote along with SNP, Plaid and Caroline Lucas despite appearing in both the Ayes and Noes lists as her individual Hansard record shows a No vote.
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
No 160 Tory MPs are not going to vote to replace May with Boris or Rees Mogg which would be the most likely alternative if Leavers win a no confidence vote in May, hence she will survive any no confidence vote.
May still leads the polls and is the only one capable of getting any sort of deal with the EU while keeping most Leave voters on board so she stays
You are living the Tory/May fiction where there is a soft Brexit deal to be done, it is just a question of a bit of compromise. There isn't. There is only no deal or surrender (EEA+CU) which would cross every red line your heroine set for herself.
There is no outcome that May can deliver that will satisfy anyone.
Ultimately, Tory MPs will realise that the electorate will tolerate no deal if led by someone who is prepared to show some fight and vision (and, frankly, blame the EU for everything), but that they will never tolerate surrender.
No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM
And which is not acceptable for NI according to Barnier, so we can't have this deal unless we agree to hand over part of the UK to the EU. Are you in favour of that? I thought you were a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party?
Mr. Sandpit, is it ISIS? I thought the Houthi rebels were backed by Iran.
It’s a pretty messy civil war, that has split the region in two. The rebel fighters are mostly from Iran and funded by Qatar, they’re trying to capture Yemen to create a Shia state to rival the Sunni Saudi Arabia. The Yemeni government asked Saudi and other Gulf states to defend them, which is what’s happening.
It’s also worth noting that we are two days from the end of Ramadan, and the start of the major Eid-al-Fitr holiday.
Or alternatively it's the result of people believing opinion polls and acting accordingly - and then the voters on 23 June 2016 and 8 June 2017 (as well as November 2016) didn't deliver what was expected of them. .. You can blame hubris - but the polling industry hugely affected events.
There was consistent polling that said there was one-third for Brexit, one-third for Remain and one-third for whatever Cameron recommended.
In the end that final third split. I think we should ignore hypothetical polling.
To give the polling some credit it clearly picked up a large increase in Labour support during the 2017 general election campaign. You can't blame the opinion polls if people genuinely change their mind.
Something to help cut inflation, Asda have cut 3p off petrol and 2p off diesel. Given that oil prices are down from a high of $80 to $75 that feels about right. I think one thing the government will need to look at in its investigation into the takeover of Asda by Sainsbury's is forcing Sainsbury's to sell some of the forecourts to competitors. Supermarket price wars are usually the trigger for falling petrol prices. Losing one of the big three supermarket forecourts will be quite damaging for the consumer.
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
No 160 Tory MPs are not going to vote to replace May with Boris or Rees Mogg which would be the most likely alternative if Leavers win a no confidence vote in May, hence she will survive any no confidence vote.
May still leads the polls and is the only one capable of getting any sort of deal with the EU while keeping most Leave voters on board so she stays
You are living the Tory/May fiction where there is a soft Brexit deal to be done, it is just a question of a bit of compromise. There isn't. There is only no deal or surrender (EEA+CU) which would cross every red line your heroine set for herself.
There is no outcome that May can deliver that will satisfy anyone.
Ultimately, Tory MPs will realise that the electorate will tolerate no deal if led by someone who is prepared to show some fight and vision (and, frankly, blame the EU for everything), but that they will never tolerate surrender.
No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM
And which is not acceptable for NI according to Barnier, so we can't have this deal unless we agree to hand over part of the UK to the EU. Are you in favour of that? I thought you were a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party?
It is provided we have enough regulatory alignment by the UK to avoid a hard border in Ireland as was agreed in December
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
No 160 Tory MPs are not going to vote to replace May with Boris or Rees Mogg which would be the most likely alternative if Leavers win a no confidence vote in May, hence she will survive any no confidence vote.
May still leads the polls and is the only one capable of getting any sort of deal with the EU while keeping most Leave voters on board so she stays
You are living the Tory/May fiction where there is a soft Brexit deal to be done, it is just a question of a bit of compromise. There isn't. There is only no deal or surrender (EEA+CU) which would cross every red line your heroine set for herself.
There is no outcome that May can deliver that will satisfy anyone.
Ultimately, Tory MPs will realise that the electorate will tolerate no deal if led by someone who is prepared to show some fight and vision (and, frankly, blame the EU for everything), but that they will never tolerate surrender.
Unfortunately some Tory MPs answer to Brussels, not the public.
I think the government needs to concentrate on a much narrower deal and then negotiate from the outside. A mutual zero tariff agreement is probably where I would have started and then extended that to customs pre-clearance for key industries like automobile/aviation/defence manufacturing. I think there would be no real need for regulatory divergence in goods given that most standards setting bodies sit apart from the EU anyway. The key difference is that the UK would have its own voice on those bodies rather than deferring to the EU which really only cares about protecting French agriculture and German car companies.
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
That is where you are wrong. If the Leavers have resigned and there is a confidence vote, they will basically put one of them up as alternative leader and it will be a de-facto leadership vote. At that point May's position will crumble. She only hangs on because there is no obvious challenger, and once there is one anyone will look better than May.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
No 160 Tory MPs are not going to vote to replace May with Boris or Rees Mogg which would be the most likely alternative if Leavers win a no confidence vote in May, hence she will survive any no confidence vote.
May still leads the polls and is the only one capable of getting any sort of deal with the EU while keeping most Leave voters on board so she stays
You are living the Tory/May fiction where there is a soft Brexit deal to be done, it is just a question of a bit of compromise. There isn't. There is only no deal or surrender (EEA+CU) which would cross every red line your heroine set for herself.
There is no outcome that May can deliver that will satisfy anyone.
Ultimately, Tory MPs will realise that the electorate will tolerate no deal if led by someone who is prepared to show some fight and vision (and, frankly, blame the EU for everything), but that they will never tolerate surrender.
Unfortunately some Tory MPs answer to Brussels, not the public.
I think the government needs to concentrate on a much narrower deal and then negotiate from the outside. A mutual zero tariff agreement is probably where I would have started and then extended that to customs pre-clearance for key industries like automobile/aviation/defence manufacturing. I think there would be no real need for regulatory divergence in goods given that most standards setting bodies sit apart from the EU anyway. The key difference is that the UK would have its own voice on those bodies rather than deferring to the EU which really only cares about protecting French agriculture and German car companies.
We practically owned the Medicines one.
Yet Switzerland has an absolutely massive pharmaceuticals sector while not being in the EU. It's bigger than ours in both absolute and per capita terms.
The whole Theresa longevity debate reminds me of Churchill's description of democracy, given the dearth of talent and excess of psychosis in the present-day Tory party.
She's the worst form of PM except for all the alternatives that are proposed from time to time.
'No there is a Canada style FTA which even Barnier has said is an option for the UK and does not require full FOM'
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
EU requirement on NI border is no infrastructure. We should just put up no infrastructure there. As with the US Canada border in the Rockies.
Comments
1. It’s in Russia, and they tried to poison half of Salisbury.
2. The England team is sh!t, and no-one is expecting us to go past the group stages.
If we make the quarter finals then people will actually start to care about it.
https://www.facebook.com/Channel4News/videos/1687616401316296/
its because it's a well organised plant and most of its key suppliers sit within half an hour of the facility
The layoffs at Elon Musk's electric car company come as it tries to increase production of its Model 3 sedan and turn a quarterly profit this year. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44458264
PS I'm struggling to decide what your keyword is this time - Parthian? Robespierre?
' Pub chain JD Wetherspoon has said it will replace champagne with sparking wines from the UK from next month.
The company's founder, Tim Martin, who campaigned for Brexit, said it was part of a transition away from products made in the European Union.
Under the plan, British wheat beer and alcohol-free beer will replace the current beers brewed in Germany.
Mr Martin said the new drinks would be cheaper than the European Union products that they are replacing.
Wetherspoon, which says it has 2 million customers visiting each week, will replace champagne with sparkling wines from the UK, such as from the Denbies vineyard, and Hardys Sparkling Pinot Chardonnay from Australia.
Its new wheat beers brewed in the UK will include Blue Moon Belgian White, Thornbridge Versa Weisse Beer and SA Brains Atlantic White.
Alcohol-free Adnams Ghost Ship will replace Erdinger alcohol-free beer from Germany.
Wetherspoon will continue to serve Kopparberg cider from Sweden, as the company has said it will transfer production to the UK post-Brexit. "In similar situations we will work closely with suppliers of niche products," Mr Martin said. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44465657
Good luck with that. Once you break the mould, you'll find it hard to put back together.
But these preparations don’t seem to fit the British media “narrative” so they never get reported.
Well that's a major step forward which leaves absolutely no better off than are before Brexit.
I'm just speculating on possible seismic events that could change the game. The game seems deadlocked but full of tension. It needs an earthquake.
If the Leavers resign and she gets challenged, she is toast. In fact, I am not sure she would even bother defending. Brexit cannot be executed against the express wishes of the Leave campaign - it would obviously lack legitimacy and would destroy the Tory party. Sullen consent is one thing, mass resignation another.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-eu-customs-union-eea-trade-michel-barnier-labour-a8395671.html
Michel Barnier said on Tuesday in a meeting with MEPs at the European Parliament that the European Economic Area (EEA) with a customs union was a possible model for a future relationship, and that the two were not incompatible.
Personally as a ‘holiday flier’ I’ve no interest in going to the US....... can’t afford the health insurance. Now Spain, Portugal on the other hand.......
Mind you the behaviour of their share price seems to defy any rational behaviour so I've stopped paying much attention..
If it were up to you you’d have a Government stuffed full of Cameroons and no-one from the Right, and just troll them. Fair enough but not everything thinks that the best way to lead and unite the party.
Not that I drink a lot of such wines.
Edit. Inability to spell West Country names.
Gove is second only to Cameron in my personal blame list for the current mess we are in.
I do suspect, deep down, the Conservatives are well aware of Stodge's First Law of Politics which states *if you don't hang together, you'll all hang separately".
As for the notion there will be civil unrest and UKIP will sweep to power if Brexit is stopped, that's just fanciful nonsense. Yes, there'll be anger but more sullen resignation and, as someone else has said, it's not the Alpha and Omega of politics.
May's position isn't strong because of the process of removing her which is entirely straightforward but because there is deep disagreement over who the next leader should be, Her position is analogous of that of John Major in the mid-90s. She survives because none of the alternatives have a strong enough base of support (this isn't 2003 when the Party united round Howard as IDS's successor) and the choice is Prime Minister not LOTO so the decision has to be quick and right.
In addition, she's no failure as some will rapidly attest - the Party leads the polls and whether any alternative leader would be doing significantly better remains to be seen. That lead is essentially down to Corbyn so May survives because of Corbyn and politics remains in this deadlocked holding pattern until one or both of them goes.
I always had you down as a Weatherspoons fan
But, sadly, I think if May goes down Gove is most likely to take over at this point.
The EU’s unwillingness to discuss is good news for the hoteliers in Bournemouth, Brighton and Blackpool, not so good for those in Benidorm, Barcelona and the Balearics.
And at the rate May is going, she is going to have both the Leavers AND the Remainers voting her down.
You need to face up to it - she doesn't have a clue what she is doing.
Nyetimber is my favourite
The prospect of Remain is unlikely, even with another referendum. I cannot see over-ruling the first Referendum result leading to anything other than greater bitterness. Amongst other things, no-one in the EU is likely to trust us again, and so we can’t even be effective members of the EU if we (sullenly & sulkily) changed our minds and rejoined. As Lord Hill said on resigning as EU commissioner, “What is done cannot be undone”.
Brexit Fudge is still the most likely. In the end, with huffing and puffing, I think many Brexiteers will accept almost any Brexit, as the direction of travel will have been set. (I would).
Although T. May is coming in for much criticism, it is possible to see her as a mildly heroic figure. This is a bloody thankless task. She is bound to disappoint almost everyone. And there are bucketloads of shit waiting to be poured over her by many people, no matter what happens.
If the country starts to wobble (quite likely the way things are going) and the polls show a reasonable shift away from Leave the 75% Remain majority among MPs might start to assert themselves
Furthermore when most Tory MPs would prefer to Remain why on earth would they support the likes of Boris Leadsome Fox or the Brexit Bulldog over the quiet Remainer Theresa May?
There’s a suspiciously high number of negative stories in the financial and business press about them, which on closer scrutiny don’t quite stand up, the suspicion is that speculators are trying every tactic to get the share price down. Their production issues aren’t much different to those experienced by any large new plant, but seem disproportionally to be in the news.
There’s a line of thought that the number of hedged positions of Tesla stock far exceeds the number of available shares, so we could end up in a situation similar to what happened with VW a few years ago where the price spikes massively, as the shorties are forced to buy them at any price to cover their positions.
I’d be interested in @rcs1000’s view of this.
There is no way he would have been given such a prominent job then.
The problem with full EEA membership is it signs us up to the Four Freedoms including FoM - we need a Swiss-style bilateral arrangement of our own with the EU (as a member of EFTA or not).
The crux now seems to be if a "Customs Arrangement" can mimic the benefits of the full CU but still allow us the freedom to go out and get out our own trade deals. If that could be agreed, it would be a big success for the Prime Minister (subject to us getting some favourable trade deals beyond the "quick wins" from the Anglosphere). I suspect that's where the negotiations behind the scenes are - trying to put together a CU-lite that does the regulatory job of the CU without locking us into the full details.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-44463749
Saudi-backed government forces have begun an attack on a critical port in Yemen.
I think this is probably wrong now, given the EU's approach to the negotiations, I think they now actually want the UK to leave but on the messiest most chaotic terms possible. They'll achieve 2 strategic goals through this:
1. Be rid of the biggest 'anti federalist' voice in the club, and thus make political integration much easier and quicker.
2. Provide a lesson to other members not to think about doing the same thing.
In fact I believe were we to change our mind and try and stay in, the EU would probably make this impossible by insisting on Schengen and Euro membership, knowing full well this would be an impossible deal for any UK government.
May still leads the polls and is the only one capable of getting any sort of deal with the EU while keeping most Leave voters on board so she stays
Transport should be a pretty simple thing to roll over with minimal effort, as the consequences of not doing so are huge on both sides. But there has to be a will on the EU side for that deal to be done. Even under the worst crash-out scenario, I’d expect everyone involved to have planes back flying within a few days.
IF a Conservative Prime Minister announces he or she believes it's in the country's best interests for the A50 process to be terminated and for the UK to remain in the EU pending further renegotiation , do you think there will be "civil unrest" ?
Most people will shrug their shoulders and life will go on. The Farages will huff and puff but what power do they have - no MPs, hardly any Councillors and how many of the current Conservative or Labour Parliamentary parties will defect to any reborn UKIP ? Last time it was two and whatever happened to them ?
I suspect Conservative loyalists would soon be out and about congratulating the Prime Minister for a heroic course of action, putting the country before Party etc, etc.
One important point which gets lost in the media's febrile speculation is that ditching Theresa May wouldn't make any positive difference to the Brexit position anyway. The principal reason she is weak and wobbly, and having to kludge together feeble and unstable compromises, isn't to do with her personality or lack of leadership skills, but for the more pressing reason that she hasn't got a majority. Changing leader won't alter that, and in fact would be likely to make things worse. For all her faults, she has at least managed to keep a balance between the Brexiteer ultras and the Continuity Remainers; a new leader who was more acceptable to either one of these groups would be less acceptable to the other, thereby increasing instability and making revolts more likely.
It is, in other words, a God-awful mess however you slice it.
Mr. Stodge, I don't know about civil unrest, but even many of those who voted to Remain would be disconcerted, at least, by having a referendum then the result being overturned by the political class.
There is no outcome that May can deliver that will satisfy anyone.
Ultimately, Tory MPs will realise that the electorate will tolerate no deal if led by someone who is prepared to show some fight and vision (and, frankly, blame the EU for everything), but that they will never tolerate surrender.
If Yes got 45% in 2014 and the SNP got 50% in 2015 and almost won every seat there is no reason UKIP could not repeat the feat given Leave got 52% if we stay in the EU despite the Leave vote
There are millions of EU jobs that rely on tourism, and they all work with very tight margins. I can also think of one famously very vocal Irishman who would be spitting bullets on the issue.
Timothy and co wrote a manifesto on the basis of polls suggesting a 140 seat plus majority. Cameron assumed in his negotiations with the EU that the UK would overwhelmingly vote remain so he didn't need to make much effort. Even on 23 June 2016 at 10pm his private polling said remain had won by 10 per cent.
You can blame hubris - but the polling industry hugely affected events.
Even more importantly, from a political perspective, is it's the best way to have media stories showing Brexit is going well. Announcing a new trade deal every month or two in the run-up to an election is the best way to move past all the negative stories, and the media is almost forced to cover them. It also creates winners in business and jobs they can visibly point to, to contrast with some of the losers in the City.
I think the government needs to concentrate on a much narrower deal and then negotiate from the outside. A mutual zero tariff agreement is probably where I would have started and then extended that to customs pre-clearance for key industries like automobile/aviation/defence manufacturing. I think there would be no real need for regulatory divergence in goods given that most standards setting bodies sit apart from the EU anyway. The key difference is that the UK would have its own voice on those bodies rather than deferring to the EU which really only cares about protecting French agriculture and German car companies.
It’s also worth noting that we are two days from the end of Ramadan, and the start of the major Eid-al-Fitr holiday.
In the end that final third split. I think we should ignore hypothetical polling.
To give the polling some credit it clearly picked up a large increase in Labour support during the 2017 general election campaign. You can't blame the opinion polls if people genuinely change their mind.
And how does that deal with the EUs requirements on the NI border - Canada is not in the customs union or Single market is it?
I don't think there is a deal that can be done anyway - we can't even agree what we want let alone persuading the EU - let alone the Walloon regional - parliament to back it. It's not just our decision.
Is being a long term vassal state (the Australian government's words) in the customs union - with no votes and no say and having EU trade deals forced on us while we cannot negotiate our own really what the public wanted when they voted to 'take back control'?
I am not sure bar Gove if there is anyone in the current Cabinet with the drive and competence and imagination to get us out of this mess. Either way we need to take a position and stick to it - because we need some leadership!
She's the worst form of PM except for all the alternatives that are proposed from time to time.