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  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited June 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Grieve is probably keep his head down until Alistair Campbell (and Tony Blair) have told his what to say to Laura K....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    Tory pensioners staying at home during the day. Hard-working Labourites will be casting their ballots on the way home this evening.
    Tory pensioners votes may well be in the post. But if Royal Mail's recent standards are anything to go by they might not show up !
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Think I'm going to lay the polonium poisoners in the footy.

    This post has aged well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    A repeat of Copeland would be very amusing, hugely reassuring for the PM and open up the wound for Corbyn.

    Sadly Betfair make it a 1000/1 chance.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Think I'm going to lay the polonium poisoners in the footy.

    This post has aged well.
    Not as well as my fiver on Betfair :D
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Think I'm going to lay the polonium poisoners in the footy.

    This post has aged well.
    It has a very long half life.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    It is possible -- voters tend not to like unnecessary byelections.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    A repeat of Copeland would be very amusing, hugely reassuring for the PM and open up the wound for Corbyn.

    Sadly Betfair make it a 1000/1 chance.
    Probably a better 1000-1 than backing Saudi Arabia outright though :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    Better still, I have a few quid on LDs!!! :lol:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    A repeat of Copeland would be very amusing, hugely reassuring for the PM and open up the wound for Corbyn.

    Sadly Betfair make it a 1000/1 chance.
    Probably a better 1000-1 than backing Saudi Arabia outright though :D
    I think I’ll stick to betting on cricket! I always lose money on football.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    A repeat of Copeland would be very amusing, hugely reassuring for the PM and open up the wound for Corbyn.

    Sadly Betfair make it a 1000/1 chance.
    Dream on buddy!

    This is London where the populace is young, liberal, sophisticated and progressive. It's not some backwater province!
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Naive question but is that allowed?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Scott_P said:
    Could a motivated Lib Dem ground operation take it on turnout figures like that?
    A Labour win on a low turnout still looks poor.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    Better still, I have a few quid on LDs!!! :lol:
    Tories down to 100s on BF.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Naive question but is that allowed?
    I don't see why it shouldn't be. There's plenty of electioneering on election day in the modern day and age on tw@tter tbh.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    murali_s said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    A repeat of Copeland would be very amusing, hugely reassuring for the PM and open up the wound for Corbyn.

    Sadly Betfair make it a 1000/1 chance.
    Dream on buddy!

    This is London where the populace is young, liberal, sophisticated and progressive. It's not some backwater province!
    So you're theory is that none of them have actually got out of their beds yet? You could be on to something.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited June 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    Tory pensioners staying at home during the day. Hard-working Labourites will be casting their ballots on the way home this evening.
    Tory pensioners votes may well be in the post. But if Royal Mail's recent standards are anything to go by they might not show up !
    Royal Mail normally gets the postals in well on time
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    murali_s said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    A repeat of Copeland would be very amusing, hugely reassuring for the PM and open up the wound for Corbyn.

    Sadly Betfair make it a 1000/1 chance.
    Dream on buddy!

    This is London where the populace is young, liberal, sophisticated and progressive. It's not some backwater province!
    That does not stop the LDs winning and of course given a third of Lewisham voted Leave the Tories are not completely out of it either if the left liberal vote is split between Labour and the LDs on low turnout
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    So many tellers, you wonder whether they're actually knocking up off the back of it...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited June 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    Better still, I have a few quid on LDs!!! :lol:
    Tories down to 100s on BF.....
    Down to 50 now, who just took the 1000?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28154066/market?marketId=1.143666825
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    Tory pensioners staying at home during the day. Hard-working Labourites will be casting their ballots on the way home this evening.
    You can vote before work you know!

    Plus plenty of Tory commuters in Blackheath and Grove Park
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    A repeat of Copeland would be very amusing, hugely reassuring for the PM and open up the wound for Corbyn.

    Sadly Betfair make it a 1000/1 chance.
    Dream on buddy!

    This is London where the populace is young, liberal, sophisticated and progressive. It's not some backwater province!
    That does not stop the LDs winning and of course given a third of Lewisham voted Leave the Tories are not completely out of it either if the left liberal vote is split between Labour and the LDs on low turnout
    What's Owen Jones predicting?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    To lose ultra Leave Copeland in a by election was bad for Corbyn to lose ultra Remain Lewisham East too would be inexcusable
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Relax everyone, there's absolubtely no evidence about that Labour are going to lose Lewisham East.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    To lose ultra Leave Copeland in a by election was bad for Corbyn to lose ultra Remain Lewisham East too would be inexcusable
    Really not going to happen. Labour 50-60% would be my guess. As for the also rans, well who cares (unless they have money on it)?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Lewisham will be a safe Labour hold. This is a one-party borough.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Pulpstar said:

    Relax everyone, there's absolubtely no evidence about that Labour are going to lose Lewisham East.

    On a low turnout, though, the 1000 for the Tories seemed a bit generous...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    Better still, I have a few quid on LDs!!! :lol:
    Tories down to 100s on BF.....
    Better to lay Labour at 1.01 in that case and have both opposition parties running for you.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    To lose ultra Leave Copeland in a by election was bad for Corbyn to lose ultra Remain Lewisham East too would be inexcusable
    Really not going to happen. Labour 50-60% would be my guess. As for the also rans, well who cares (unless they have money on it)?
    I don't have money on the teeny tinies but Waters vs UKIP is an interesting subplot to be fair.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Sean_F said:


    Lewisham will be a safe Labour hold. This is a one-party borough.

    Borough, but constituency? Blackheath feels very Lib Demmy.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Sean_F said:


    Lewisham will be a safe Labour hold. This is a one-party borough.

    Borough, but constituency? Blackheath feels very Lib Demmy.
    Possibly, but not enough to overcome the solid Labour areas.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    @Tyndall did you see my suggestion for a bet re the NI/RoI border?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    We're 14 minutes past the deadline for the Government to publish the compromise amendment on a "meaningful vote" for the Lords on Monday. Dominic Grieve is now on a train. Ros Altmann has tabled the original Grieve amendment in the Lords. So it looks as if the discussions failed.

    Anna Soubry MP

    Verified account

    @Anna_Soubry

    I understand the Govt has tabled an amendment that has not been agreed by Dominic Grieve. Grateful for the conversations but without consultation what was agreed earlier today has been changed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    This is much funnier than the actual World Cup.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=mmFaFmR3d8I
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The New Orleans AG charges against tax fraud in the Trump Foundation is a slam dunk. Incredibly obvious use of the foundation as a personal slush fund.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Think I'm going to lay the polonium poisoners in the footy.

    Me too. The first result is often an upset for the hosts, from memory.
    Today is the last day of Ramadan so before laying Russia, I'd want to know if the Saudi team has some sort of dispensation to rehydrate.
    Not an expert, but I thought that "travellers" were allowed to eat and drink?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Scott_P said:
    Not as major a losing to a bus, mind...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Alistair said:

    The New Orleans AG charges against tax fraud in the Trump Foundation is a slam dunk. Incredibly obvious use of the foundation as a personal slush fund.

    I've got some bets on an unsuccesful impeachment so hopefully the House Democrats will do that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Think I'm going to lay the polonium poisoners in the footy.

    Me too. The first result is often an upset for the hosts, from memory.
    Today is the last day of Ramadan so before laying Russia, I'd want to know if the Saudi team has some sort of dispensation to rehydrate.
    Not an expert, but I thought that "travellers" were allowed to eat and drink?
    Correct. And those who have good reason not to fast during Ramadan will often choose to fast at another time of year instead. Not sure how strict the Saudi football team are about these things though.

    Oh, and Ramadan just officially finished as the new moon has been sighted this evening. Eid Mubarak to all Muslim PBers!
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Grieve isnt going to be happy with anything. Tie to cut him and the rest of them loose.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Scott_P said:
    QT should be interesting tonight. John Mann and Isabel Oakeshott as well as Dominic Grieve.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Scott_P said:
    Could a motivated Lib Dem ground operation take it on turnout figures like that?
    A Labour win on a low turnout still looks poor.
    I'd forgotten about postal votes which may mean a rather higher turnout.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    Max I think you need to hold hard on the prosecco no matter how much you had on Russia to win.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    He's wrong, but I doubt if he's in the employ of a foreign power.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    Max I think you need to hold hard on the prosecco no matter how much you had on Russia to win.
    Nyetimber not proseco please.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    He's wrong, but I doubt if he's in the employ of a foreign power.
    Much more boring if we all have to cling on to reality.

    Also, like all of these things it says more about the accuser than the accused.
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    I'm convinced Brexit is turning everyone in the body politic slightly mad
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    I hope no one got over excited by last week's 7% Tory lead with YouGov.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1007303345860759557
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Some 46 per cent say that Britain was wrong to leave the EU, while 43 per cent say it was the right decision. Last week it was 44 per cent for each.

    The public still put the Tories ahead of Labour as the party of choice to deliver Brexit. Some 26 per cent chose the Tories, 16 per cent would choose Labour and 10 per cent would pick Ukip.

    The poll also found 40 per cent think it would be legitimate for Parliament to reject the Brexit deal, with 37 per cent thinking the opposite. However, only 32 per cent think it would be legitimate for Parliament to block Brexit completely while 49 per cent do not.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Sandpit said:

    This is much funnier than the actual World Cup.
    https://youtube.com/watch?v=mmFaFmR3d8I

    Brilliant. That's me for the world cup.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    He's wrong, but I doubt if he's in the employ of a foreign power.
    The others I believe are just a bit misguided, Grieve is far too smart not to realise that all of his actions are strengthening the hand of our opponent and weakening our own. His motivations are suspect. Personally I think a healthy dose of McCarthyism to root out all of those working on behalf of Brussels would be useful.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    I hope no one got over excited by last week's 7% Tory lead with YouGov.

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1007303345860759557

    A 2-3% lead over Labour seems to be the average.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    Mortimer said:


    So many tellers, you wonder whether they're actually knocking up off the back of it...

    Labour and I think the Tories discourage activists from telling - SOP is to believe people who say they've voted, since even if you say "Liar!" it's not going to make them go, so telling distracts activists from reminding voters. Some still insist, e.g. because they are councillors who want to greet familiar faces as they go in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    He's wrong, but I doubt if he's in the employ of a foreign power.
    The others I believe are just a bit misguided, Grieve is far too smart not to realise that all of his actions are strengthening the hand of our opponent and weakening our own. His motivations are suspect. Personally I think a healthy dose of McCarthyism to root out all of those working on behalf of Brussels would be useful.
    Says the man whose side was balls deep in with Russia.

    You're overcompensating, you're the traitor mate.

    Before you know you'll be paying your taxes in a foreign country instead of the Exchequer.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,960
    Great fourth goal from the Russians.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    Max I think you need to hold hard on the prosecco no matter how much you had on Russia to win.
    Nyetimber not proseco please.
    Good point Max is one of the few PBers who can afford Nyetimber.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    murali_s said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Turnout news from Lewisham East:

    At the polling station opposite Blackheath railway station they've got a sheet of paper posted outside with the number of voters each hour (excluding postal voters). The running total at this polling station at 4pm was 286. According to this document the total number of voters in 2014 was 1,914. But I don't know whether that's the local or general election electorate.

    www.lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/electoral-reviews/Pages/review-polling-districts-polling-places.aspx

    So that would mean turnout at 4pm at this polling station was around 15%. That would give a turnout of around 25% if the same rate continues for the rest of the day.

    Heading off to Blackheath station in about half an hour, in my view the lower the turnout the more chance the Tories and LDs have as it is most likely Labour voters who constitute most of those staying at home
    It would be hilarious if Labour lost another by election.
    A repeat of Copeland would be very amusing, hugely reassuring for the PM and open up the wound for Corbyn.

    Sadly Betfair make it a 1000/1 chance.
    Dream on buddy!

    This is London where the populace is young, liberal, sophisticated and progressive. It's not some backwater province!
    By a backwater you mean full of white people ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    What surprises me is the 21% of people who think the negotiations are going well.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    He's wrong, but I doubt if he's in the employ of a foreign power.
    The others I believe are just a bit misguided, Grieve is far too smart not to realise that all of his actions are strengthening the hand of our opponent and weakening our own. His motivations are suspect. Personally I think a healthy dose of McCarthyism to root out all of those working on behalf of Brussels would be useful.
    I agree that Grieve is trying his hardest to weaken the government's hand. Were I on the Executive of his association, I'd certainly want to remove him. But, I think that allegations of treason should not be made lightly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited June 2018
    Must delete that post where I said Russia are shite at soccer.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Mortimer said:


    So many tellers, you wonder whether they're actually knocking up off the back of it...

    Labour and I think the Tories discourage activists from telling - SOP is to believe people who say they've voted, since even if you say "Liar!" it's not going to make them go, so telling distracts activists from reminding voters. Some still insist, e.g. because they are councillors who want to greet familiar faces as they go in.
    I don’t know about by elections, but I’ve been a Tory teller in two different constituencies at generals. There was a labour counterpart in one of them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    Has May just tried to shaft the remainer rebels and thereby set her self up for another cliff edge next week? Or am I missing some twist?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I have a vision that somewhere someone is saying 'Mr Smithson, can you stop playing the the greenscreen and return to your office please', but I imagine Robert is too important to be so chided.

    I must say I am baffled by economic matters, but have always wondered at how well assessed productivity is and how useful it is.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    Max I think you need to hold hard on the prosecco no matter how much you had on Russia to win.
    Nyetimber not proseco please.
    Good point Max is one of the few PBers who can afford Nyetimber.
    Have to say, I'm not much into any kind of fizz. Unless it's a reasonably good lager!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    He's wrong, but I doubt if he's in the employ of a foreign power.
    The others I believe are just a bit misguided, Grieve is far too smart not to realise that all of his actions are strengthening the hand of our opponent and weakening our own. His motivations are suspect. Personally I think a healthy dose of McCarthyism to root out all of those working on behalf of Brussels would be useful.
    Just listen to yourself! The only 'healthy dose of McCarthyism' is no McCarthyism at all.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McCarthyism

    "McCarthyism is the practice of making accusations of subversion or treason without proper regard for evidence." Is that the kind of country you want to live in?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Has May just tried to shaft the remainer rebels and thereby set her self up for another cliff edge next week? Or am I missing some twist?

    Or called their bluff over their claims that “they don’t want to stop Brexit”?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    Max I think you need to hold hard on the prosecco no matter how much you had on Russia to win.
    Nyetimber not proseco please.
    Good point Max is one of the few PBers who can afford Nyetimber.
    Have to say, I'm not much into any kind of fizz. Unless it's a reasonably good lager!
    Nyetimber is very good but quite spenny if you want to dip your toe in (metaphorically speaking).
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited June 2018
    Grieve and his acolytes are a cowardly bunch. If they really believe that Brexit is the worst possible outcome for Britain, they should support Corbyn in a vote of no confidence to change the government or trigger an election, in which they could stand as Lib Dems.

    That would, however, require a measure of courage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    They are not, but sometimes they'll get something right nonetheless.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    I hope no one got over excited by last week's 7% Tory lead with YouGov.

    As I recall a lot of people smelt a rogue poll on that one, as it just seemed too improbable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RobC said:

    I'm convinced Brexit is turning everyone in the body politic slightly mad

    Only slightly? We're doing alright then!
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2018
    Phone banks are far mor effective than having tellers at the polling station.

    You don't need to check if your suppoters have voted. Just ring them regardless.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    What time tonight will Corbyn be making the standards announcement of 'This win in a safe seat shows how the government has lost the argument on everything it is doing and must now do as I say' that LoTo are obliged to make?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    RoyalBlue said:

    Grieve and his acolytes are a cowardly bunch. If they really believe that Brexit is the worst possible outcome for Britain, they should support Corbyn in a vote of no confidence to change the government or trigger an election, in which they could stand as Lib Dems.

    That would, however, require a measure of courage.

    In fairness if they believe Brexit is the worst outcome there's not much point in a vote of no confidence which might lead to an election which Corbyn wins, since he's for Brexit as well.

    But there are plenty on various sides who should show more courage - if they think soft Brexit is a disaster hard brexiters should rebel more than they do, and if any brexit is a disaster then more remainers should rebel.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Seems like best case scenario for the Tories would have been holding onto second, and it'd still not be much to crow about, so I can understand not being as up for it as the LDs, who have a second place as a kind of victory.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobC said:

    I'm convinced Brexit is turning everyone in the body politic slightly mad

    Don't worry - it will be over in 7000 hrs or so.

    We are leaving the EU, the CA and the SM.

  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited June 2018

    Has May just tried to shaft the remainer rebels and thereby set her self up for another cliff edge next week? Or am I missing some twist?

    Another cliff edge next week.

    On Monday the Lords will add the Grieve amendment and send it back to the Commons. On Wednesday the Commons will vote on it. This time Grieve and co won't be fooled by last minute offers on the floor of the house or by the PM in her office behind the Speaker's chair.

    Last time the Government had a majority of 28. There were two Tory rebels (Soubry and Clarke) and five Labour rebels (Stringer, Hoey, Campbell, Field and Mann).

    I think there are about 15-20 Tory rebels including Sourby and Clarke. They need 16 for a dead heat (assuming no more labour rebels). It will be tight.

    EDIT: I forgot the new Lewisham MP. 16 for Grieve to win. I think he will.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    So how else do you explain his inexplicable "not-EEA" amendment which sunk any chance of Parliament passing the actual EEA amendment? He ensured that there is literally no chance of the country staying in the single market with that move.

    On the current path the UK will be in the single market in April 2019 so being absolutist about the EEA can lead you to the wrong conclusions.
    If one thing is clear from this week, the 200 vote majority in the Commons to leave the EEA ensures we will not be in the single market beyond the transition period
    It merely ensures that having cake and eating it remains the government's position but it has no bearing on which way things will ultimately fall.
    A Canada style FTA remains the endpoint
    A Canada style FTA is incompatible with the promise to have no border between GB and NI and incompatible with any number of other promises the government has made. It's merely a slogan, not a position.
    Every result is incompatible with a no border promise. That promise is stupid and will not stand.
    You think there will be a border btwn RoI and NI?
    Yes. What form it will take I have no idea but since we will be leaving the SM there will be a border.
    There is a hard border sign between Scotland and England.

    Big aluminium thing with with "Welcome to Scotland" on it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited June 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Has May just tried to shaft the remainer rebels and thereby set her self up for another cliff edge next week? Or am I missing some twist?


    I think there are about 15-20 Tory rebels including Sourby and Clarke.
    Sourby? Freudian slip?

    I must say I don't really know how many of these rebels there are supposed to be - I know rebels will always talk up their numbers, but outside the most recalcitrant trio of Clarke, Grieve and Soubry I cannot think of any off the top of my head, so most will be less prominent even if there are 15-20 I assume.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    They are not, but sometimes they'll get something right nonetheless.
    They have elected the correct government IMO on nearly every occasion since ww2.

    Even if I did not agree with it at the time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    TGOHF said:
    Yes, but she always says that sort of thing, and then some hard Brexiteer says the government is backsliding to please the remainer Ultras.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Yes, but she always says that sort of thing, and then some hard Brexiteer says the government is backsliding to please the remainer Ultras.
    She is an angry woman.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Must say I did like the article on Unherd about "Six types of 'Useful Idiot'"

    https://unherd.com/2018/06/six-types-useful-idiot/

    I'm much in favour of expanding it as a term so it is not restricted to one wing of politics (it does list examples for both) or a narrow scenario eg for communist nations.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TGOHF said:
    Yes she had done Grieve up like a kipper.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    I'm sure he'll have plenty of prepared attack lines from Ali Campbell and Tony Blair by then...
    I'd love to be in that audience and call him a traitor and watch him bluster. His masters are in Brussels.
    He's wrong, but I doubt if he's in the employ of a foreign power.
    The others I believe are just a bit misguided, Grieve is far too smart not to realise that all of his actions are strengthening the hand of our opponent and weakening our own. His motivations are suspect. Personally I think a healthy dose of McCarthyism to root out all of those working on behalf of Brussels would be useful.
    I agree that Grieve is trying his hardest to weaken the government's hand. Were I on the Executive of his association, I'd certainly want to remove him. But, I think that allegations of treason should not be made lightly.
    Precisely because no one takes them remotely seriously, we might as well fling them around.

    In a democracy, the people are Sovereign. They expressed a will and he is now exerting any and every influence and power he has to thwart that will.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    TGOHF said:

    kle4 said:

    TGOHF said:
    Yes, but she always says that sort of thing, and then some hard Brexiteer says the government is backsliding to please the remainer Ultras.
    She is an angry woman.

    She needs to join the lib dems - at least it would be honest
This discussion has been closed.