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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair 2018 is once again favourite for TMay’s exit

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    Seamus Heaney.

    Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.
    Louis MacNeice
    Brian Friel
    Stephen Rea
    Denys Hawthorne
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Just had a short Twitter conversation re the next Con leader market, which I thought I'd relate a couple of things which occurred to me from it here.

    The field is currently being viewed in Leave/Remain / hard/soft Brexit terms, which is fair enough on one level as clearly that's going to be important. However, on broader social and economic policy, the potential field is cluttered to the various strains on the right of the Party. In what he's done so far at the Home Office, Javid is the only one currently playing to the left. Given the number of MPs on the centre/left of the party, if there was an election this summer, that could well give him a substantial lead in a first round vote and, hence, significant momentum - and also make him the default Stop-X candidate for those with strong negatives.

    Interesting. I just can't see the membership at large voting for him over say, well anyone else tbh. They are not all as, shall we say, 'inclusive' as most PB Tories.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    JonathanD said:

    ...
    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.
    I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.
    How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?

    Where are they arguing that?

    Michel Barnier's speech:

    https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
    The rise of the AfD, Lega Nord, Wildets and Me Pen shows it is not just the UK wanting more control over immigration
    It also shows that had we remained, we might have achieved much of what we wanted prior to the Cameron renegotiation - and been seen as moderates into the bargain.
    Disagree. It would be full steam ahead on full integration, and we're better off out of that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Cyclefree said:

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    Seamus Heaney.

    Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.
    Louis MacNeice
    Brian Friel
    Stephen Rea
    Denys Hawthorne
    George Best
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.

    Agreed.

    But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.

    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.

    Agreed.

    But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.

    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    Very sound point, but MPs will be very wary of putting themselves up for a vote again, I cannot see how it will benefit either Labour or Conservative in the current climate but it may assist SNP, Lib Dems, UKIP. Turkeys will not vote for Christmas
    I meant a leadership election, not a GE.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    May has also shown clearly enough that she's not prepared to walk out and countenance No Deal. An election this summer would almost certainly ensure that any successful candidate is on record as committing to that option (though whether they'd carry it through is another matter).

    Anyone who put themselves on record as committing to something which everyone knows is not an option would be a busted flush before they began. It would be even less credible than it was when May said it at Lancaster House.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Carl Frampton is the best thing to come out of NI recently tbh.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    edited June 2018



    This is like going into Dragons Den and demanding the Dragon’s pay for your car, mortgage and agree for the whole deal to be adjudicated by your solicitor in exchange for accepting a big investment of their money into your enterprise.

    They get the military and security co-operation through NATO anyway whether the UK is in or out of the EU. All of these shadowy snake eaters operate on a basis of manus manum lavat anyway. They'll still be trading information with anyone who as anything of value to give in return,
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    Blimey, that's grim if it's not faked in some way.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    tpfkar said:

    The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.

    Agreed.

    But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.

    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.

    So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?
    That empathy would help in its own right but a new leader would be able to say "this is what the Party has decided; we have had this debate; if you rebel then you are not only going against the government but your own members." Some would no doubt still rebel but it might peel enough softer rebels off to give the government a workable majority with the DUP.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    tpfkar said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?
    George Best.

    CS Lewis.

    Nadine Coyle.
    Barry McGuigan.

    Frank Carson.
    Michelle Fairley,
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704

    Blimey, that's grim if it's not faked in some way.
    It is, but it's giving the people what they want, and the EU is just as much to blame for where things are heading.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    The great British public may well be right -- but only by coincidence because they'd have absolutely no idea of the technicalities. These polls are nonsensical: you may as well try to design a new anti-cancer drug by vox pop.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    @williamglenn has read this wrong...

    56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.
    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21
    That's Leave voters for you!
    Yup. Doing Putin’s work by diminishing the United Kingdom.
    F*cking unbelievable!
    Putin's a scruffy dictator. He's not Blofeld.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited June 2018

    MaxPB said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    @williamglenn has read this wrong...

    56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.
    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21
    That's Leave voters for you!
    Yup. Doing Putin’s work by diminishing the United Kingdom.
    You've been doing Barnier's work for 25 years, how is it any different?
    The Union was secure until you decided Brexit was more important than the UK.

    You can recant now or be dragged into the streets when people realise they were duped by the Brexiteers.
    And Westminster had become an outpost of Brussels, a nation in name only. I'm hoping for a mass trial of remainers for treason, maybe we'll bring back the death penalty for enabling Junker, Barnier and Selmayer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Nigelb said:

    tpfkar said:

    The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.

    Agreed.

    But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.

    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.

    So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?
    It won’t change the parliamentary maths but all Tories want to win the next election.

    An inspiring leader who can map out a path to that which broadly satisfies everyone, achieves compromise and knocks other contentious bits into the long grass....
    I wasn't aware there were any unicorns in the ministerial ranks.
    Sajid Javid could do a better job, as could Hunt.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2018
    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    @williamglenn has read this wrong...

    56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.
    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21
    It's not suitable for a Yes/No answer.

    My answer is the same at the time of the Scottish independence referendum, when it was widely argued that Scotland would vote to secede because Scots would not tolerate a Conservative government.

    I would prefer Scotland/Northern Ireland to remain in the UK, but I would still prefer a Conservative government to Labour /vote Leave, even if Scotland/Northern Ireland chose to secede as a result.
    Everyone did a sterling job pretending Ed Milibanf was going to win 2015. Ruth Davidson's even claimed so at one debate during IndyRef.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    Seamus Heaney.

    Struggling a bit beyond that, though. Van Morrison is decidedly not a plus point.
    I'm sure Beverley of this parish would have given you a list, if she hadn't been bullied off.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    It's all coming to a head.

    - The EU is bent on insisting on stuff we cannot possibly agree to.

    - Remainers are trying their damnedest to get Parliament to tie the hands of our negotiators so that we agree to anything.

    - TM is unwilling to leave without a deal, so accepting humiliation.


    Ergo she will be toppled before long.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    ...
    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.
    I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.
    How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?

    Where are they arguing that?

    Michel Barnier's speech:

    https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
    Cheers.

    Not to worry. I am sure the German car manufacturers and Italian prosecco growers will force a deal. If not then we have the Brexit dividend and accelerated growth that no longer being shackled to a economic corpse will result in, to comfort us.
    I am now buying non-EU sparkling wine.

    I’ve had excellent bottles from Australia and South Africa over recent weeks.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    The great British public may well be right -- but only by coincidence because they'd have absolutely no idea of the technicalities. These polls are nonsensical: you may as well try to design a new anti-cancer drug by vox pop.
    Quite.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Sean_F said:



    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"

    In didactic value it's right up there with: "Would you rather be invisible or never wank again?"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
    It has, leave it to the EU to close their border. It's not out problem beyond that.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited June 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:



    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"

    In didactic value it's right up there with: "Would you rather be invisible or never wank again?"
    Who wouldn't want to be invisible?
    It'll be awesome!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Just had a short Twitter conversation re the next Con leader market, which I thought I'd relate a couple of things which occurred to me from it here.

    The field is currently being viewed in Leave/Remain / hard/soft Brexit terms, which is fair enough on one level as clearly that's going to be important. However, on broader social and economic policy, the potential field is cluttered to the various strains on the right of the Party. In what he's done so far at the Home Office, Javid is the only one currently playing to the left. Given the number of MPs on the centre/left of the party, if there was an election this summer, that could well give him a substantial lead in a first round vote and, hence, significant momentum - and also make him the default Stop-X candidate for those with strong negatives.

    Interesting. I just can't see the membership at large voting for him over say, well anyone else tbh. They are not all as, shall we say, 'inclusive' as most PB Tories.
    I disagree. The membership likes winners. Sure, it likes to have its ideological tummy tickled too but ultimately, it likes winners most (particularly when there's a threat of a hard-left Labour government about).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
    It has, leave it to the EU to close their border. It's not out problem beyond that.
    Assuming you believe this, then the only possible option it leaves is No Deal since the EU will not accept that it's their problem to deal with the fall out of Brexit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
    It has, leave it to the EU to close their border. It's not out problem beyond that.
    Assuming you believe this, then the only possible option it leaves is No Deal since the EU will not accept that it's their problem to deal with the fall out of Brexit.
    I've said time and again, we should start from a no deal scenario and negotiate in.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    The great British public may well be right -- but only by coincidence because they'd have absolutely no idea of the technicalities. These polls are nonsensical: you may as well try to design a new anti-cancer drug by vox pop.
    On the question of border difficulties being exaggerated by politicians even Remain voters think they are (net +6), as do NI voters (+20) and RI voters (+10). The only people who don’t are NI Catholics (-52).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
    I did hear a story that Dave says his biggest regret in employing people is not Andy Coulson but Steve Hilton.

    There’s a curious phenomenon of very liberal people somehow making the jump to the alt-right.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
    It has, leave it to the EU to close their border. It's not out problem beyond that.
    Assuming you believe this, then the only possible option it leaves is No Deal since the EU will not accept that it's their problem to deal with the fall out of Brexit.
    I've said time and again, we should start from a no deal scenario and negotiate in.
    Unless you actually mean crash out and then start negotiating, this is just a fantasy because no-one will believe it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    I've said time and again, we should start from a no deal scenario and negotiate in.

    And it's equally dumb every time.

    It also flies in the face of every Brexiteer statement from before the vote.

    Did you think they were lying to you then? Why did you vote for them?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
    It has, leave it to the EU to close their border. It's not out problem beyond that.
    I know 99.38% of this site contains comments posing as analysis on issues or events which posters wish would happen rather than have any chance of happening but we should all nevertheless try to bring that figure down.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
    It has, leave it to the EU to close their border. It's not out problem beyond that.
    Assuming you believe this, then the only possible option it leaves is No Deal since the EU will not accept that it's their problem to deal with the fall out of Brexit.
    I've said time and again, we should start from a no deal scenario and negotiate in.
    have. Should have. We will be pushed to do so now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
    It has, leave it to the EU to close their border. It's not out problem beyond that.
    Assuming you believe this, then the only possible option it leaves is No Deal since the EU will not accept that it's their problem to deal with the fall out of Brexit.
    I've said time and again, we should start from a no deal scenario and negotiate in.
    have. Should have. We will be pushed to do so now.
    Yes well, I have no control over what the remainers in 10 and 11 do.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    ...
    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.
    I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.
    How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?

    Where are they arguing that?

    Michel Barnier's speech:

    https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
    Cheers.

    Not to worry. I am sure the German car manufacturers and Italian prosecco growers will force a deal. If not then we have the Brexit dividend and accelerated growth that no longer being shackled to a economic corpse will result in, to comfort us.
    I am now buying non-EU sparkling wine.

    I’ve had excellent bottles from Australia and South Africa over recent weeks.
    6% of VW's output is sold in the UK, they are not going to march on Brussels over a declining market of right hand drive cars.......
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
    It has, leave it to the EU to close their border. It's not out problem beyond that.
    Assuming you believe this, then the only possible option it leaves is No Deal since the EU will not accept that it's their problem to deal with the fall out of Brexit.
    I've said time and again, we should start from a no deal scenario and negotiate in.
    have. Should have. We will be pushed to do so now.
    Yes well, I have no control over what the remainers in 10 and 11 do.
    May said at Lancaster House that we would fully leave the economic structures of the EU - the single market and customs union - and that no deal is better than a bad deal. How exactly does that deviate from your proposal?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    The great British public may well be right -- but only by coincidence because they'd have absolutely no idea of the technicalities. These polls are nonsensical: you may as well try to design a new anti-cancer drug by vox pop.
    On the question of border difficulties being exaggerated by politicians even Remain voters think they are (net +6), as do NI voters (+20) and RI voters (+10). The only people who don’t are NI Catholics (-52).
    Yes but so what? How would these people know? The wisdom of crowds only works if the crowd is made up of people with some relevant knowledge.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603



    May said at Lancaster House that we would fully leave the economic structures of the EU - the single market and customs union - and that no deal is better than a bad deal. How exactly does that deviate from your proposal?

    She deviated. Not me.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Off topic,

    If England finish the group on 5 points, they're guaranteed progression to the second round; if they finish on 6, they're not.

    Just saying.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    MaxPB said:



    May said at Lancaster House that we would fully leave the economic structures of the EU - the single market and customs union - and that no deal is better than a bad deal. How exactly does that deviate from your proposal?

    She deviated. Not me.
    Can you identify the moment of deviation?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    edited June 2018

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sean_F said:



    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"

    In didactic value it's right up there with: "Would you rather be invisible or never wank again?"
    Who wouldn't want to be invisible?
    It'll be awesome!
    I'd hate it. I would have to keep coughing discreetly to indicate I was there.

    EDIT: A bit like PB.
  • geoffw said:

    It's all coming to a head.

    - The EU is bent on insisting on stuff we cannot possibly agree to.

    - Remainers are trying their damnedest to get Parliament to tie the hands of our negotiators so that we agree to anything.

    - TM is unwilling to leave without a deal, so accepting humiliation.


    Ergo she will be toppled before long.

    This
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:



    May said at Lancaster House that we would fully leave the economic structures of the EU - the single market and customs union - and that no deal is better than a bad deal. How exactly does that deviate from your proposal?

    She deviated. Not me.
    Can you identify the moment of deviation?
    When Nick Timothy lost the election by trying to snatch old people's houses away.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:



    May said at Lancaster House that we would fully leave the economic structures of the EU - the single market and customs union - and that no deal is better than a bad deal. How exactly does that deviate from your proposal?

    She deviated. Not me.
    Can you identify the moment of deviation?
    When Nick Timothy lost the election by trying to snatch old people's houses away.
    But in terms of the negotiations, what precisely made the difference in your view? The EU's negotiating guidelines were published before the election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
    I did hear a story that Dave says his biggest regret in employing people is not Andy Coulson but Steve Hilton.

    There’s a curious phenomenon of very liberal people somehow making the jump to the alt-right.
    Their "liberalism' is a cover for their bigotry.

    They are all for free expression and equal opportunity as long as it is exclusively for people like them. Not others.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Scott_P said:
    Political statements and advertising are outwith the remit of the ASA.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:
    That's a shot against Corbyn more than anyone I think.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    Alistair said:

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
    I did hear a story that Dave says his biggest regret in employing people is not Andy Coulson but Steve Hilton.

    There’s a curious phenomenon of very liberal people somehow making the jump to the alt-right.
    Their "liberalism' is a cover for their bigotry.

    They are all for free expression and equal opportunity as long as it is exclusively for people like them. Not others.
    I met Steve Hilton once.

    He was very passionate about equality. He told some stats about how poorly a black child does in this country compared to others.

    He said it was very similar to America, the sad thing was they had the ‘excuse’ of dealing with a legacy of slavery/Jim Crow, we didn’t have that excuse, which shamed us as a nation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    ...
    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.
    I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.
    How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?

    Where are they arguing that?

    Michel Barnier's speech:

    https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
    Cheers.

    Not to worry. I am sure the German car manufacturers and Italian prosecco growers will force a deal. If not then we have the Brexit dividend and accelerated growth that no longer being shackled to a economic corpse will result in, to comfort us.
    I am now buying non-EU sparkling wine.

    I’ve had excellent bottles from Australia and South Africa over recent weeks.
    6% of VW's output is sold in the UK, they are not going to march on Brussels over a declining market of right hand drive cars.......
    I was talking about wine, but I don’t need to buy a car and I have other options if I did. Besides which, as a volume carmaker, i’d be worried about even the 6%: VW don’t exactly have a brilliant reputation at the moment and need all the sales they can get.

    But your choice.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Alistair said:

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
    I did hear a story that Dave says his biggest regret in employing people is not Andy Coulson but Steve Hilton.

    There’s a curious phenomenon of very liberal people somehow making the jump to the alt-right.
    Their "liberalism' is a cover for their bigotry.

    They are all for free expression and equal opportunity as long as it is exclusively for people like them. Not others.
    Such a belief is found right across the political spectrum.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545

    tpfkar said:

    The only circumstance that would lead her to going early is if there a commonality of interest between both sides of the party for a new leader.

    Agreed.

    But both sides are members of the same Party and both sides have an interest in her not fighting another election as leader, so I think she'll struggle to win a VoNC whenever one is held. And to hold one, you don't need the 150+ MPs required to win it (nominally; in truth I doubt she could survive with much more than 100 opposed); you only need 48. And there are 48. So the question is when a VoNC is tabled.

    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    But what I don't get is how a new leader would have any more authority? They'd still have no parliamentary majority, any attempt to step off the tightrope and pander to one wing would enrage the other, and the EU would say that negotiations are so far advanced there is no time to review what's already been agreed, unless we want to stay in after all? Can't see that one working on either side.

    So how does it help, other than getting a leader who has a bit of empathy on other issues?
    That empathy would help in its own right but a new leader would be able to say "this is what the Party has decided; we have had this debate; if you rebel then you are not only going against the government but your own members." Some would no doubt still rebel but it might peel enough softer rebels off to give the government a workable majority with the DUP.
    'would' 'would' 'might' sounds like you are trying to convince yourself?

    Compared to the threats about defying the will of the people, I'm not sure I buy the idea that it would change the minds of any rebels. Of course, if Anna Soubry is elected leader then we sit back and enjoy the fireworks - I'd like to see that line holding then.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Sean_F said:
    Keeping “huge cash boost” in the news isn’t something May should be too worried about. Even if voters do think they’ll be paying a bit more tax for it this is one thing they support regardless.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
    I did hear a story that Dave says his biggest regret in employing people is not Andy Coulson but Steve Hilton.

    There’s a curious phenomenon of very liberal people somehow making the jump to the alt-right.
    A vision of hell, Hilton & Piers Morgan droning on endlessly about the virtues of Trump.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401
    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    @williamglenn has read this wrong...

    56% of Tory voters want to see Scotland remain in the UK, 32% think it's for the Scots to decide but of that 32%, 30% would prefer Scotland to remain in the UK. So, 62.6% of Tories want Scotland to stay - versus 44% + (35% of 39%) = 57.6% for the overall population.
    https://twitter.com/lordashcroft/status/1008992236636397569?s=21
    That's Leave voters for you!
    Yup. Doing Putin’s work by diminishing the United Kingdom.
    F*cking unbelievable!
    Putin's a scruffy dictator. He's not Blofeld.
    Blofeld keeps losing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    He's right on this one.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Labour and the media seem to think that arguing against the Tories giving the NHS a cash boost on Brexit grounds is a winner. I'm not convinced.

    If only this was the central strand of last years manifesto. How different things would be now.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:

    ...
    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.
    I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.
    How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?

    Where are they arguing that?

    Michel Barnier's speech:

    https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
    Cheers.

    Not to worry. I am sure the German car manufacturers and Italian prosecco growers will force a deal. If not then we have the Brexit dividend and accelerated growth that no longer being shackled to a economic corpse will result in, to comfort us.
    I am now buying non-EU sparkling wine.

    I’ve had excellent bottles from Australia and South Africa over recent weeks.
    6% of VW's output is sold in the UK, they are not going to march on Brussels over a declining market of right hand drive cars.......
    I was talking about wine, but I don’t need to buy a car and I have other options if I did. Besides which, as a volume carmaker, i’d be worried about even the 6%: VW don’t exactly have a brilliant reputation at the moment and need all the sales they can get.

    But your choice.

    Of course, the point you make about the declining importance of Europe for UK businesses applies even more to the UK for EU businesses.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    Your two sentences seem to contradict each other.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Elliot said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    He's right on this one.
    I don’t think so. Northern Ireland is a valuable part of the UK, IMHO, which I treasure.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2018
    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    We had customs controls between NI/the UK and the Republic/Irish free state for 70 years from 1922 to 1992 alongside freedom of movement under the common travel area (in its various guises). For much of that period there were no troubles.

    Not clear exactly why such arrangements cannot be reinstated again - given there was little or technology back then let alone the internet. I never remember customs controls being a big issue before 1992. We all missed duty free when it ended!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    = comment from someone not qualified to comment on a political website.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Of course, the point you make about the declining importance of Europe for UK businesses applies even more to the UK for EU businesses.

    Indeed, hopefully we go our separate ways after Brexit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    = comment from someone not qualified to comment on a political website.
    I agree that we shouldn't have border infrastructure, but we can pledge not to have any from EIRE to NI, that's enough. If the EU/EIRE want to introduce one in the other direction that's really on them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    brendan16 said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    We had customs controls between NI/the UK and the Republic/Irish free state for 70 years from 1922 to 1992 alongside freedom of movement under the common travel area (in its various guises). For much of that period there were no troubles.

    Not clear exactly why such arrangements cannot be reinstated again - given there was little or technology back then let alone the internet. I never remember customs controls being a big issue before 1992. We all missed duty free when it ended!
    I do! :smile:
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Political statements and advertising are outwith the remit of the ASA.
    Indeed. utterly pointless stupid stunt.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    England win attracts 18.3m TV audience, record 3m streams

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/44533213

    And probably about 5 people watched it with wank goggles on in VR.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Labour and the media seem to think that arguing against the Tories giving the NHS a cash boost on Brexit grounds is a winner. I'm not convinced.

    If only this was the central strand of last years manifesto. How different things would be now.

    I am sure it is in north London where those making these decisions mostly hang out. Why did they not for example hold Labour Live outside the capital - not that Tottenham isn't an inviting location - just to be bit less London focused.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:
    Political statements and advertising are outwith the remit of the ASA.
    Indeed. utterly pointless stupid stunt.
    Helps keep the Brexit/NHS link in the public eye though, so probably a net gain.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    = comment from someone not qualified to comment on a political website.
    I agree that we shouldn't have border infrastructure, but we can pledge not to have any from EIRE to NI, that's enough. If the EU/EIRE want to introduce one in the other direction that's really on them.
    I think we have been through this at length. The EU/EIRE can threaten one and we will back down.

    The issue hinges on what kind of invisible (ie not a border post, not a sangar in sight) will be possible.

    Otherwise it's SM/CU of some flavour for us.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,749
    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    The Ashcroft poll is here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Brexit-The-Border-and-The-Union-Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-June-2018.pdf

    More Tory voters would be happy to see Northern Ireland leave the UK than supporters of other parties, and even more of them would be happy for Scotland to leave.

    But HYUFD assured me that all Tories are Unionists.

    Turns out I know my party better than he does.
    And you outed yourself as not being a Unionist.

    Surely that was more than you just trolling, right?
    I’d prefer Scotland to remain in the Union.

    Northern Ireland I’m ambivalent about. It would correct a historical injustice.

    Plus what has Northern Ireland brought to the mainland apart from bigotry, terrorism, bombs, death, and the regeneration of Manchester?

    We’re better off without Northern Ireland.

    We give x millions a week to Northern Ireland, let us give it to the NHS instead.
    Not one of your best.

    Your modus operandi is to troll the Tory Right, because you get a kick out of it.

    I view almost all your posts in that light.
    Simple question for you.

    Would you still proceed with Brexit if it guaranteed the destruction of the Union?

    Would you be happy if Brexit fatally diminished the UK?
    That's a very loaded question.

    It's like asking, "Would you still vote Conservative if there was a general strike against the government", or "Would you still vote Conservative if Scotland declared UDI?"
    The Northern Ireland border problem hasn’t gone away you know.
    It has, leave it to the EU to close their border. It's not out problem beyond that.
    "Aux barricades, mes amis ! Perfidious Albion is letting USA hormone-stuffed beef and chickens bred in filth into our pristine community and providing a back door for smugglers evading the tariffs we need to protect our (fill in the blanks) industries"

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    Don't disagree. When demographics move that way then yes, there will be unification.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Urquhart, with VR porn, I believe it won't be long until there is a 'wank' peripheral :p
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Mr. Urquhart, with VR porn, I believe it won't be long until there is a 'wank' peripheral :p

    Teledildonics already exist.

    I am told...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Och well, that should go smoothly then.

    Though Arlene did say she'd be buggering off if a border poll decided on reunification.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    I thought Tesla was having some bad PR...

    The “world’s worst” smart padlock – it’s EVEN WORSE than we though

    https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2018/06/18/the-worlds-worst-smart-padlock-its-even-worse-than-we-thought/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    brendan16 said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    We had customs controls between NI/the UK and the Republic/Irish free state for 70 years from 1922 to 1992 alongside freedom of movement under the common travel area (in its various guises). For much of that period there were no troubles.

    Not clear exactly why such arrangements cannot be reinstated again - given there was little or technology back then let alone the internet. I never remember customs controls being a big issue before 1992. We all missed duty free when it ended!

    Hasn't Theresa May ruled them out?

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Most people (52% to 31%) think the government is being dishonest about the way it will fund a £20bn cash boost for the NHS, according to a Sky Data poll.
    https://news.sky.com/story/majority-think-theresa-mays-brexit-dividend-for-the-nhs-is-dishonest-sky-data-poll-finds-11408886
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Och well, that should go smoothly then.

    Though Arlene did say she'd be buggering off if a border poll decided on reunification.
    Whether Arlene or another DUP leader a border poll unless a landslide for reunification including in the Protestant areas of Northern Ireland would inevitably see the DUP declare UDI for the Protestant counties of Northern Ireland and Belfast which is also still majority DUP
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    = comment from someone not qualified to comment on a political website.
    I agree that we shouldn't have border infrastructure, but we can pledge not to have any from EIRE to NI, that's enough. If the EU/EIRE want to introduce one in the other direction that's really on them.
    Except we explicitly agreed in December that it was on us
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Och well, that should go smoothly then.

    Though Arlene did say she'd be buggering off if a border poll decided on reunification.
    Whether Arlene or another DUP leader a border poll unless a landslide for reunification including in the Protestant areas of Northern Ireland would inevitably see the DUP declare UDI for the Protestant counties of Northern Ireland and Belfast which is also still majority DUP

    UDI is a non-starter, of course. It cannot and will not be implemented. It would need control of the armed forces, the creation of a full state infrastructure and access to multiple kinds of imports, as well as an acceptance of significantly reduced living standards.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Northern Ireland has Catholics and Protestants living closely together throughout the province. There aren't many areas as you describe them.
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