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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair 2018 is once again favourite for TMay’s exit

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    UDI, so not part of the UK, so not our problem. Tip top.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Just had a short Twitter conversation re the next Con leader market, which I thought I'd relate a couple of things which occurred to me from it here.

    The field is currently being viewed in Leave/Remain / hard/soft Brexit terms, which is fair enough on one level as clearly that's going to be important. However, on broader social and economic policy, the potential field is cluttered to the various strains on the right of the Party. In what he's done so far at the Home Office, Javid is the only one currently playing to the left. Given the number of MPs on the centre/left of the party, if there was an election this summer, that could well give him a substantial lead in a first round vote and, hence, significant momentum - and also make him the default Stop-X candidate for those with strong negatives.

    Interesting. I just can't see the membership at large voting for him over say, well anyone else tbh. They are not all as, shall we say, 'inclusive' as most PB Tories.
    You misjudge.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,280

    Most people (52% to 31%) think the government is being dishonest about the way it will fund a £20bn cash boost for the NHS, according to a Sky Data poll.
    https://news.sky.com/story/majority-think-theresa-mays-brexit-dividend-for-the-nhs-is-dishonest-sky-data-poll-finds-11408886

    Dementia Tax II.
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Most people (52% to 31%) think the government is being dishonest about the way it will fund a £20bn cash boost for the NHS, according to a Sky Data poll.
    https://news.sky.com/story/majority-think-theresa-mays-brexit-dividend-for-the-nhs-is-dishonest-sky-data-poll-finds-11408886

    The public have been dishonest themselves for some time about public spending - that is why we are £2 trillion in debt.

    Voting for more spend, more borrowing and expecting someone else (their grandkids amongst others) to pay for it.

    What's the problem - we will just be paying a few more billion in debt interest on top of the £50bn s year and rising anyway we are handing over to bankers and bondholders.

    In the end it's more money for the NHS when we still have a deficit - we can't afford it but we seemingly have no choice.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,899
    The most intractable difficult long term in NI doesn't look to be the border counties, it's west Belfast.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011

    Most people (52% to 31%) think the government is being dishonest about the way it will fund a £20bn cash boost for the NHS, according to a Sky Data poll.
    https://news.sky.com/story/majority-think-theresa-mays-brexit-dividend-for-the-nhs-is-dishonest-sky-data-poll-finds-11408886

    Dementia Tax II.
    She might as well go the whole hog and fund the NHS cash boost by taking Brexit voters' houses.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    MaxPB said:

    Barnier spending this morning hammering home the message that we have chosen to be a Third Country, in EU parlance.

    And yet they want to apply standards to what we do afterwards? Yeah time to tell him to do one. Unfortunately the traitors like Grieve are enabling his stance.
    traitor is a very strong word, I cannot see how an ex-Attorney General could be described as traitorous....more than most he is perhaps the most law abiding of anyone
    Carson was an ex Solicitor General when he raised the UVF (the original version not the terrorists) against the U.K. government
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Kennedy 2005 for sure, but otherwise, that looks about right.
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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    brendan16 said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    We had customs controls between NI/the UK and the Republic/Irish free state for 70 years from 1922 to 1992 alongside freedom of movement under the common travel area (in its various guises). For much of that period there were no troubles.

    Not clear exactly why such arrangements cannot be reinstated again - given there was little or technology back then let alone the internet. I never remember customs controls being a big issue before 1992. We all missed duty free when it ended!
    You obviously never heard of Crossmaglen or Warrenpoint or a whole host of names from that period.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    edited June 2018

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    Not at all no one is ignoring it, save to say you are not quite understanding the context or history of NI to call the border issue a molehill.

    We await to see the solution. Why you think the EU as a matter of course willl accept no hard border controls whatsoever with a third country is interesting.

    As we have rehearsed on here many times, the EU is in the bonkers position of maybe threatening something they don’t want and we would then be in the yet more bonkers position of caving in to the threat.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    = comment from someone not qualified to comment on a political website.
    I agree that we shouldn't have border infrastructure, but we can pledge not to have any from EIRE to NI, that's enough. If the EU/EIRE want to introduce one in the other direction that's really on them.
    I think we have been through this at length. The EU/EIRE can threaten one and we will back down.

    The issue hinges on what kind of invisible (ie not a border post, not a sangar in sight) will be possible.

    Otherwise it's SM/CU of some flavour for us.
    Then let them threaten one. If the Irish government want to propose border infrastructure which makes it more difficult for Irish people in the North to travel into the South, that's really on them. I expect Varadkar would need 24h armed protection if he did though.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    = comment from someone not qualified to comment on a political website.
    I agree that we shouldn't have border infrastructure, but we can pledge not to have any from EIRE to NI, that's enough. If the EU/EIRE want to introduce one in the other direction that's really on them.
    I think we have been through this at length. The EU/EIRE can threaten one and we will back down.

    The issue hinges on what kind of invisible (ie not a border post, not a sangar in sight) will be possible.

    Otherwise it's SM/CU of some flavour for us.
    Then let them threaten one. If the Irish government want to propose border infrastructure which makes it more difficult for Irish people in the North to travel into the South, that's really on them. I expect Varadkar would need 24h armed protection if he did though.
    Again, you are not getting the reality which I have just described to @Richard_Nabavi.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Nah, the issue is that there would be two or three lanes for UK and 7-10 for non-UK. The way it works now is fine. Though it does pose some interesting questions for the e-border and whether the UK/EU will continue to share the database. If not then EU passports will stop working at the e-border.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Macron in “you call me, Sir” moment with teenager:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.dw.com/en/france-livid-emmanuel-macron-lectures-teenager-for-calling-him-manu/a-44285247

    I suppose Jupiter would do too.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    Not at all no one is ignoring it, save to say you are not quite understanding the context or history of NI to call the border issue a molehill.

    We await to see the solution. Why you think the EU as a matter of course willl accept no hard border controls whatsoever with a third country is interesting.

    As we have rehearsed on here many times, the EU is in the bonkers position of maybe threatening something they don’t want and we would then be in the yet more bonkers position of caving in to the threat.
    Then let them put up the hard border. Let's double triple dare them with no backsies.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2018
    TOPPING said:

    ...

    We await to see the solution. Why you think the EU as a matter of course willl accept no hard border controls whatsoever with a third country is interesting....

    Ah, that's a different point. What I am saying is nonsense is the oft-repeated statement that a hard border would be unavoidable if there were tariffs or regulatory differences between North and South, as though it were some kind of universal law of nature.

    Your point is that the EU might choose to impose physical checks. You might well be right on that, if ideology trumps commonsense and political necessity. They certainly seem to be threatening to do so, although as you say it's odd of them to threaten something they have themselves ruled out
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    = comment from someone not qualified to comment on a political website.
    I agree that we shouldn't have border infrastructure, but we can pledge not to have any from EIRE to NI, that's enough. If the EU/EIRE want to introduce one in the other direction that's really on them.
    Except we explicitly agreed in December that it was on us
    They also explicitly agreed in December that there would be no East/West barriers either yet now Barnier is demanding we put checks on ferries. So screw that.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Peston predicting an election in 2018.

    https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/2077746485883419

    The only safe prediction in politics is that Peston is wrong.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    Not at all no one is ignoring it, save to say you are not quite understanding the context or history of NI to call the border issue a molehill.

    We await to see the solution. Why you think the EU as a matter of course willl accept no hard border controls whatsoever with a third country is interesting.

    As we have rehearsed on here many times, the EU is in the bonkers position of maybe threatening something they don’t want and we would then be in the yet more bonkers position of caving in to the threat.
    Then let them put up the hard border. Let's double triple dare them with no backsies.
    This would just be a futile gesture that would make the UK look impotent and pathetic. The UK has already agreed to full alignment in order to ensure there is no need for a border of any kind, and the UK will bloody well stick to that, even if we leave the EU without signing another bit of paper to say we will.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,976



    Hasn't Theresa May ruled them out?

    May ruling something out doesn't necessarily mean she won't later agree to that something if it means she gets to be PM for another week.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Royale, that, and the likes of the Lords and Grieve.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Elliot said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    There's absolutely no reason to need checkpoints. If people want to cause violence over a few booths and cameras that is on them, not anyone else.
    = comment from someone not qualified to comment on a political website.
    I agree that we shouldn't have border infrastructure, but we can pledge not to have any from EIRE to NI, that's enough. If the EU/EIRE want to introduce one in the other direction that's really on them.
    Except we explicitly agreed in December that it was on us
    They also explicitly agreed in December that there would be no East/West barriers either yet now Barnier is demanding we put checks on ferries. So screw that.
    No, the UK agreed that in all circumstances it would allow unfettered access from Northern Ireland to the rest of the UK and that no new regulatory barriers develop between NI and GB. It hands Belfast a veto over the trade policy of the UK.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    UDI, so not part of the UK, so not our problem. Tip top.
    UDI certainly keeping the Queen and royal family
  • Options
    notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Macron in “you call me, Sir” moment with teenager:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.dw.com/en/france-livid-emmanuel-macron-lectures-teenager-for-calling-him-manu/a-44285247

    I suppose Jupiter would do too.

    Absolutely right. David Cameron walked past a friend and I a few years ago, I referred to him as Prime Minister, and asked if he minded a photo. Respect the office..
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    Most people (52% to 31%) think the government is being dishonest about the way it will fund a £20bn cash boost for the NHS, according to a Sky Data poll.
    https://news.sky.com/story/majority-think-theresa-mays-brexit-dividend-for-the-nhs-is-dishonest-sky-data-poll-finds-11408886

    Dementia Tax II.
    No all polling gas a majority backing higher national insurance to provide more funds for the NHS and a plurality higher income tax what most voters clearly oppose is any new property taxes on your estate after death
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    Not at all no one is ignoring it, save to say you are not quite understanding the context or history of NI to call the border issue a molehill.

    We await to see the solution. Why you think the EU as a matter of course willl accept no hard border controls whatsoever with a third country is interesting.

    As we have rehearsed on here many times, the EU is in the bonkers position of maybe threatening something they don’t want and we would then be in the yet more bonkers position of caving in to the threat.
    Then let them put up the hard border. Let's double triple dare them with no backsies.
    This would just be a futile gesture that would make the UK look impotent and pathetic. The UK has already agreed to full alignment in order to ensure there is no need for a border of any kind, and the UK will bloody well stick to that, even if we leave the EU without signing another bit of paper to say we will.
    A piece of paper that both sides recognise is not legally binding.

    As TOPPING notes, there is no realistic chance of a hard border in Ireland whatever the outcome. If we're heading to a no deal Brexit then we may as well do it properly.

    Completely detach ourselves from the project, no chance of ever going back, no chance of them ever wanting us back. The UK and EU both need to go their separate ways for a 10-15 years. I think the only agreement we'll be able to reach is a mutual zero tariff arrangement. Any more than that will be seen as a bonus.

    However, I'm hoping the EU implodes under the weight of Merkel's migrants and the federalists.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Och well, that should go smoothly then.

    Though Arlene did say she'd be buggering off if a border poll decided on reunification.
    Whether Arlene or another DUP leader a border poll unless a landslide for reunification including in the Protestant areas of Northern Ireland would inevitably see the DUP declare UDI for the Protestant counties of Northern Ireland and Belfast which is also still majority DUP

    UDI is a non-starter, of course. It cannot and will not be implemented. It would need control of the armed forces, the creation of a full state infrastructure and access to multiple kinds of imports, as well as an acceptance of significantly reduced living standards.

    Oh it would absolutely be implemented, most Protestants in Northern Ireland put Ulster above all else
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
    They realise that it would be impossible for any British government to put up or allow a hard border or have border controls in NI.

    That they are therefore seeming to argue for two diametrically opposed options shows that they understand the NI border dynamic better than many here on PB.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited June 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Northern Ireland has Catholics and Protestants living closely together throughout the province. There aren't many areas as you describe them.
    You obviously have not seen the NI 2017 general election map, a clear divide between Sinn Fein seats in Western border county NI and DUP seats in Eastern interior Northern Ireland with the exception of West Belfast


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(Northern_Ireland)
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    edited June 2018

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
    I did hear a story that Dave says his biggest regret in employing people is not Andy Coulson but Steve Hilton.

    There’s a curious phenomenon of very liberal people somehow making the jump to the alt-right.
    A vision of hell, Hilton & Piers Morgan droning on endlessly about the virtues of Trump.
    What on earth is the justification for separating children from their parents? If they’re all arrested as illegal immigrants why not keep them together and deport them together?

    Separating children from their parents is utterly inhumane. I simply can’t see what on earth the US is seeking to achieve. Deporting illegal immigrants is one thing but do this as a family, surely?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
    They realise that it would be impossible for any British government to put up or allow a hard border or have border controls in NI.

    That they are therefore seeming to argue for two diametrically opposed options shows that they understand the NI border dynamic better than many here on PB.
    Yes, and we wouldn't have any. On our side. It's up to them what they do on their side. I'm sure the shinners will send some pretty stark warnings to Varadkar the moment he starts talking about stopping Irish people in NI from going into the South. They will be actively policing the border, not us. Until you get that into your head there really is no point in continuing this discussion.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Och well, that should go smoothly then.

    Though Arlene did say she'd be buggering off if a border poll decided on reunification.
    Whether Arlene or another DUP leader a border poll unless a landslide for reunification including in the Protestant areas of Northern Ireland would inevitably see the DUP declare UDI for the Protestant counties of Northern Ireland and Belfast which is also still majority DUP

    UDI is a non-starter, of course. It cannot and will not be implemented. It would need control of the armed forces, the creation of a full state infrastructure and access to multiple kinds of imports, as well as an acceptance of significantly reduced living standards.

    Oh it would absolutely be implemented, most Protestants in Northern Ireland put Ulster above all else

    How would it be implemented?

  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
    I genuinely don't know which side you are talking about there! Sums up the negotiations well that it could be either...
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Och well, that should go smoothly then.

    Though Arlene did say she'd be buggering off if a border poll decided on reunification.
    Whether Arlene or another DUP leader a border poll unless a landslide for reunification including in the Protestant areas of Northern Ireland would inevitably see the DUP declare UDI for the Protestant counties of Northern Ireland and Belfast which is also still majority DUP

    UDI is a non-starter, of course. It cannot and will not be implemented. It would need control of the armed forces, the creation of a full state infrastructure and access to multiple kinds of imports, as well as an acceptance of significantly reduced living standards.

    Oh it would absolutely be implemented, most Protestants in Northern Ireland put Ulster above all else

    How would it be implemented?

    Rifles and bombs, I guess?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
    They realise that it would be impossible for any British government to put up or allow a hard border or have border controls in NI.

    That they are therefore seeming to argue for two diametrically opposed options shows that they understand the NI border dynamic better than many here on PB.
    Yes, and we wouldn't have any. On our side. It's up to them what they do on their side. I'm sure the shinners will send some pretty stark warnings to Varadkar the moment he starts talking about stopping Irish people in NI from going into the South. They will be actively policing the border, not us. Until you get that into your head there really is no point in continuing this discussion.
    Sorry Max but you are not arguing from the correct premise. There will be no border and the implications of there being no border will be absorbed by the UK, as the UK has already committed to. Even in the event of a true 'No Deal', the UK would not renege on that.
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Royal Ascot.I like Coeur de Lion in the 5.00.Wootton in the 4.20 for the ew double.There are lots of free bets around online.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2018
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
    They realise that it would be impossible for any British government to put up or allow a hard border or have border controls in NI.

    That they are therefore seeming to argue for two diametrically opposed options shows that they understand the NI border dynamic better than many here on PB.
    So what are they trying to achieve? I'm genuinely baffled. In one breath they say with regret that the UK will become 'a third country' with no special status as far as the EU is concerned, the next moment they go on about the ECJ having to have jurisdiction over us and NI having to remain in the CU and Single Market. People accuse Theresa May of being unclear and unrealistic, but she's a hell of lot more coherent than the EU are.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
    But UDI in Rhodesia only worked because there was a large and powerful neighbour - South Africa - in support and the then Portuguese colonies of Mozambique and Angola also helped. Who would come to the aid of a DUP mini-state?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Macron in “you call me, Sir” moment with teenager:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.dw.com/en/france-livid-emmanuel-macron-lectures-teenager-for-calling-him-manu/a-44285247

    I suppose Jupiter would do too.

    Reminds me of a scene from The West Wing:

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    I don't know how to address you. Would you prefer Jed or Mr. President?

    BARTLET
    To be honest, I prefer Mr. President.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    That's fine.

    BARTLET
    You understand why, right?

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Do I need to know why?

    BARTLET
    It's not ego.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    I didn't think it was.

    BARTLET
    There are certain decisions I have to make while I'm in this room. Do I send troops into harm's way? Which fatal disease gets the most research money?

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Sure.

    BARTLET
    It's helpful in those situations not to think of yourself as the man but as the office.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Then Mr. President it is.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI

    Who pays for the police force, who pays the judges, the teachers, the doctors, the nurses, and so on? The white minority had full control of all Rhodesian infrastructure. The unionist minority who chose UDI would have no such control in NI. This is quite possibly the most ludicrous assertion I have ever read on here - and that is saying something.

  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    notme said:

    Macron in “you call me, Sir” moment with teenager:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.dw.com/en/france-livid-emmanuel-macron-lectures-teenager-for-calling-him-manu/a-44285247

    I suppose Jupiter would do too.

    Absolutely right. David Cameron walked past a friend and I a few years ago, I referred to him as Prime Minister, and asked if he minded a photo. Respect the office..
    But Macron should be big enough not to react so pettily to a teenager.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
    They realise that it would be impossible for any British government to put up or allow a hard border or have border controls in NI.

    That they are therefore seeming to argue for two diametrically opposed options shows that they understand the NI border dynamic better than many here on PB.
    So what are they trying to achieve? I'm genuinely baffled. In one breath they say with regret that the UK will become 'a third country' with no special status as far as the EU is concerned, the next moment they go on about the ECJ having to have jurisdiction over us and NI having to remain in the CU and Single Market. People accuse Theresa May of being unclear and unrealistic, but she's a hell of lot more coherent than the EU are.
    They're trying to have their cake and eat it too.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
    Of course UDI, if recognised by the UK and EU27, also solves the border issue as far as the UK goes.
  • Options
    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited June 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
    I did hear a story that Dave says his biggest regret in employing people is not Andy Coulson but Steve Hilton.

    There’s a curious phenomenon of very liberal people somehow making the jump to the alt-right.
    A vision of hell, Hilton & Piers Morgan droning on endlessly about the virtues of Trump.
    What on earth is the justification for separating children from their parents? If they’re all arrested as illegal immigrants why not keep them together and deport them together?

    Separating children from their parents is utterly inhumane. I simply can’t see what on earth the US is seeking to achieve. Deporting illegal immigrants is one thing but do this as a family, surely?
    There is a law in the US, the Flores Consent Decree - that children can be held by the government for only 20 days. If asylum petitions take more than 20 days to process, the government must either release the adults and children together into the country pending the adjudication of the asylum claim or hold the adults and release the children, thereby separating them. If the family is released, then the assumption is they will not be caught again any time soon, so release is tantamount to allowing them entry to the US.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    JonathanD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
    I did hear a story that Dave says his biggest regret in employing people is not Andy Coulson but Steve Hilton.

    There’s a curious phenomenon of very liberal people somehow making the jump to the alt-right.
    A vision of hell, Hilton & Piers Morgan droning on endlessly about the virtues of Trump.
    What on earth is the justification for separating children from their parents? If they’re all arrested as illegal immigrants why not keep them together and deport them together?

    Separating children from their parents is utterly inhumane. I simply can’t see what on earth the US is seeking to achieve. Deporting illegal immigrants is one thing but do this as a family, surely?
    There is a law in the US, the Flores Consent Decree - that unaccompanied children can be held by the government for only 20 days. If asylum petitions take more than 20 days to process, the government must either release the adults and children together into the country pending the adjudication of the asylum claim or hold the adults and release the children, thereby separating them. If the family is released, then the assumption is they will not be caught again any time soon, so release is tantamount to allowing them entry to the US.
    Thank you.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2018
    "Britain Elects
    @britainelects

    Scottish Parliament voting intention(s):

    Constituency vote:

    SNP: 40% (-7)
    CON: 28% (+6)
    LAB: 24% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-2)

    --

    List vote:

    SNP: 36% (-6)
    CON: 26% (+3)
    LAB: 23% (+4)
    LDEM: 6% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (-)

    via @Panelbase, 08 - 13 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 2016 result"
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    After No 10 slapping down Hague, it sounds like Javid doesn't really much care what No 10 thinks. It should be obvious that there's a real chance that the review might make recommendations that have implications well beyond prescribed medical use.
  • Options
    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    If there's to be a who follows Dimbleby market I make Anne Mcelvoy the bet.Shadsy must be sunning himself at Ascot.Prices up around Wed/Thurs perhaps.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    On topic what I find interesting is that Mike Smithson's normal remark about May being protected by the lack of any alternatives is missing. Javid is a better alternative.

    A review into medical cannabis is a start but frankly ridiculously late. Medicines should be available based upon whether they work or not, not what they're made from. The evidence that medical cannabis works has been there for a long time already and in many instances is far less addictive/dangerous than opiates.

    There should be a review into whether we even keep cannabis illegal or not. Lets have some evidence-based policy here. I truly dislike tobacco but rather it be sold behind a counter in Morrisons than by a dangerous drug dealer. Cannabis should be fully licensed and taxed and sold behind the counter the same as tobacco.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,134
    edited June 2018
    BBC: "Britain is the world's largest producer and exporter of medical cannabis"!
    edit: the but "one of the"
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects
    @britainelects

    Scottish Parliament voting intention(s):

    Constituency vote:

    SNP: 40% (-7)
    CON: 28% (+6)
    LAB: 24% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-2)

    --

    List vote:

    SNP: 36% (-6)
    CON: 26% (+3)
    LAB: 23% (+4)
    LDEM: 6% (+1)
    GRN: 7% (-)

    via @Panelbase, 08 - 13 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 2016 result"

    SNP 6% down on Holyrood 2016, unionist majority at Holyrood getting closer
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI

    Who pays for the police force, who pays the judges, the teachers, the doctors, the nurses, and so on? The white minority had full control of all Rhodesian infrastructure. The unionist minority who chose UDI would have no such control in NI. This is quite possibly the most ludicrous assertion I have ever read on here - and that is saying something.

    They might do it anyway. Either way, only violence would suppress them, and they would very probably arm themselves.

    Do we want that again in NI?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Och well, that should go smoothly then.

    Though Arlene did say she'd be buggering off if a border poll decided on reunification.
    Whether Arlene or another DUP leader a border poll unless a landslide for reunification including in the Protestant areas of Northern Ireland would inevitably see the DUP declare UDI for the Protestant counties of Northern Ireland and Belfast which is also still majority DUP

    UDI is a non-starter, of course. It cannot and will not be implemented. It would need control of the armed forces, the creation of a full state infrastructure and access to multiple kinds of imports, as well as an acceptance of significantly reduced living standards.

    Oh it would absolutely be implemented, most Protestants in Northern Ireland put Ulster above all else

    How would it be implemented?

    By the Protestant leadership
  • Options
    NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    On topic what I find interesting is that Mike Smithson's normal remark about May being protected by the lack of any alternatives is missing. Javid is a better alternative.

    A review into medical cannabis is a start but frankly ridiculously late. Medicines should be available based upon whether they work or not, not what they're made from. The evidence that medical cannabis works has been there for a long time already and in many instances is far less addictive/dangerous than opiates.

    There should be a review into whether we even keep cannabis illegal or not. Lets have some evidence-based policy here. I truly dislike tobacco but rather it be sold behind a counter in Morrisons than by a dangerous drug dealer. Cannabis should be fully licensed and taxed and sold behind the counter the same as tobacco.

    Fair enough as long as pot heads don't feel they can go out of the roads with their now legal high. Drug driving is at least as dangerous as drink driving.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    Macron in “you call me, Sir” moment with teenager:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.dw.com/en/france-livid-emmanuel-macron-lectures-teenager-for-calling-him-manu/a-44285247

    I suppose Jupiter would do too.

    Reminds me of a scene from The West Wing:

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    I don't know how to address you. Would you prefer Jed or Mr. President?

    BARTLET
    To be honest, I prefer Mr. President.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    That's fine.

    BARTLET
    You understand why, right?

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Do I need to know why?

    BARTLET
    It's not ego.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    I didn't think it was.

    BARTLET
    There are certain decisions I have to make while I'm in this room. Do I send troops into harm's way? Which fatal disease gets the most research money?

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Sure.

    BARTLET
    It's helpful in those situations not to think of yourself as the man but as the office.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Then Mr. President it is.
    Unfortunately, I doubt Macron’s reasoning is quite as constitutionally dispassionate as that.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
    They realise that it would be impossible for any British government to put up or allow a hard border or have border controls in NI.

    That they are therefore seeming to argue for two diametrically opposed options shows that they understand the NI border dynamic better than many here on PB.
    So what are they trying to achieve? I'm genuinely baffled. In one breath they say with regret that the UK will become 'a third country' with no special status as far as the EU is concerned, the next moment they go on about the ECJ having to have jurisdiction over us and NI having to remain in the CU and Single Market. People accuse Theresa May of being unclear and unrealistic, but she's a hell of lot more coherent than the EU are.
    I suppose it's to somehow reverse engineer the SM/CU/FoM status onto us. Or to accumulate leverage in this area to spend it in another.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
    But UDI in Rhodesia only worked because there was a large and powerful neighbour - South Africa - in support and the then Portuguese colonies of Mozambique and Angola also helped. Who would come to the aid of a DUP mini-state?
    GB would of course remain a close friend especially as we would still share a monarch unlike the Republic. The UDI state would also have majority support amongst its population so would have fewer problems than Rhodesia
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
    They realise that it would be impossible for any British government to put up or allow a hard border or have border controls in NI.

    That they are therefore seeming to argue for two diametrically opposed options shows that they understand the NI border dynamic better than many here on PB.
    Yes, and we wouldn't have any. On our side. It's up to them what they do on their side. I'm sure the shinners will send some pretty stark warnings to Varadkar the moment he starts talking about stopping Irish people in NI from going into the South. They will be actively policing the border, not us. Until you get that into your head there really is no point in continuing this discussion.
    Sorry Max but you are not arguing from the correct premise. There will be no border and the implications of there being no border will be absorbed by the UK, as the UK has already committed to. Even in the event of a true 'No Deal', the UK would not renege on that.
    Understandably enough Max is seeing the world how he would like it to be rather than as it is.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    Peston predicting an election in 2018.

    https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/posts/2077746485883419

    The only safe prediction in politics is that Peston is wrong.
    He makes our very own Roger look like a sage.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI

    Who pays for the police force, who pays the judges, the teachers, the doctors, the nurses, and so on? The white minority had full control of all Rhodesian infrastructure. The unionist minority who chose UDI would have no such control in NI. This is quite possibly the most ludicrous assertion I have ever read on here - and that is saying something.

    What an absurd question. The DUP already were the largest party in NI pre suspension in charge of NI's infrastructure, domestic policy and executive and with a DUP First Minister
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503

    After No 10 slapping down Hague, it sounds like Javid doesn't really much care what No 10 thinks. It should be obvious that there's a real chance that the review might make recommendations that have implications well beyond prescribed medical use.
    It does seem as if he is departing considerably from his predecessors at the Home Office, and is carving out a post Brexit policy platform rather than getting bogged down in the quicksand of Brexit policy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
    Of course UDI, if recognised by the UK and EU27, also solves the border issue as far as the UK goes.
    Of course, a future PM Rees Mogg or Boris would be delighted to support and prop up a UDI state in Ulster
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
    Of course UDI, if recognised by the UK and EU27, also solves the border issue as far as the UK goes.
    Of course, a future PM Rees Mogg or Boris would be delighted to support and prop up a UDI state in Ulster
    It isnt UDI in that circumstance, it is a colony.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    Cyclefree said:

    JonathanD said:

    ...
    In any case, may is being pushed and pulled by parliament to such an extent that she's not really a leader in any meaningful sense. There's a strong argument that it's better to have a real election and a new leader with authority to deal with the EU over the final few months than to have a proxy contest conducted by a dozen or so rebels on either side.

    That's a seductive argument, but it's a risky one, The problem is that Theresa May is being pushed around in all directions not principally because of any personal lack of leadership talent, but because she has no majority, her own party is divided, there's no majority in parliament for any specific flavour of Brexit or non-Brexit, and the EU doesn't seem to want to have a sensible negotiation. Any new leader, whoever it is, will be boxed in by exactly the same fundamental problems. It's hard to see how anyone can have meaningful authority to deal with the EU in these circumstances.
    I suspect that behind the scenes EU is that we are stark raving mad. Or at least our Government and majority party are.
    How on earth can any vaguely sentient being argue that cooperation on security is somehow bound up with Freedom of Movement?

    Where are they arguing that?

    Michel Barnier's speech:

    https://twitter.com/IanWishart/status/1009000039472074752?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
    Personally I would be very glad to be out of the EAW. Its placing of bureaucratic convenience above principles of English criminal law (such as proving a prima facie case etc) are quite offensive. It is typical of May’s authoritarianism that this is one EU law she does want rather than using Brexit as an opportunity to recast our extradition law in line with well-worn and, to my mind, better English legal principles.
    You have something of a point, but I would think that being automatically excluded from the warrant will require new extradition arrangements, which likely won't be in force for a while.

    There is also the matter of security databases:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/19/barnier-uk-will-lose-access-to-eu-security-databases-after-brexit
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,916
    Norm said:

    On topic what I find interesting is that Mike Smithson's normal remark about May being protected by the lack of any alternatives is missing. Javid is a better alternative.

    A review into medical cannabis is a start but frankly ridiculously late. Medicines should be available based upon whether they work or not, not what they're made from. The evidence that medical cannabis works has been there for a long time already and in many instances is far less addictive/dangerous than opiates.

    There should be a review into whether we even keep cannabis illegal or not. Lets have some evidence-based policy here. I truly dislike tobacco but rather it be sold behind a counter in Morrisons than by a dangerous drug dealer. Cannabis should be fully licensed and taxed and sold behind the counter the same as tobacco.

    Fair enough as long as pot heads don't feel they can go out of the roads with their now legal high. Drug driving is at least as dangerous as drink driving.
    Same rules for both. Why not?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Norm said:

    On topic what I find interesting is that Mike Smithson's normal remark about May being protected by the lack of any alternatives is missing. Javid is a better alternative.

    A review into medical cannabis is a start but frankly ridiculously late. Medicines should be available based upon whether they work or not, not what they're made from. The evidence that medical cannabis works has been there for a long time already and in many instances is far less addictive/dangerous than opiates.

    There should be a review into whether we even keep cannabis illegal or not. Lets have some evidence-based policy here. I truly dislike tobacco but rather it be sold behind a counter in Morrisons than by a dangerous drug dealer. Cannabis should be fully licensed and taxed and sold behind the counter the same as tobacco.

    Fair enough as long as pot heads don't feel they can go out of the roads with their now legal high. Drug driving is at least as dangerous as drink driving.
    It's also already just as illegal.

    I can again buy beer, wine or spirits from Morrison's but I can't consume it in the car or drive afterwards. I don't see why we need to treat drug driving and drink driving at all differently.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,976
    HYUFD said:

    fewer problems than Rhodesia

    That damns with faint praise.

    A 30 country situation with Armagh, Tyrone, Derry and Fermanagh in the republic might be demographically feasible but it might take a decade or two of slaughter to settle down. The rump NI of Antrim and Down would be the angriest place on earth. Trump could move the US embassy to West Belfast to calm things down.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,916

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI

    Who pays for the police force, who pays the judges, the teachers, the doctors, the nurses, and so on? The white minority had full control of all Rhodesian infrastructure. The unionist minority who chose UDI would have no such control in NI. This is quite possibly the most ludicrous assertion I have ever read on here - and that is saying something.

    The last sample of opinion in NI that I saw suggested that while the Unionists were in front there wasn't much in it! I wonder what would happen if one asked
    a) Stay the same
    b) Independent
    c) Join the RoI
    And, if a) wasn't on the agenda, what woud b the second choice.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Macron in “you call me, Sir” moment with teenager:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.dw.com/en/france-livid-emmanuel-macron-lectures-teenager-for-calling-him-manu/a-44285247

    I suppose Jupiter would do too.

    Reminds me of a scene from The West Wing:

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    I don't know how to address you. Would you prefer Jed or Mr. President?

    BARTLET
    To be honest, I prefer Mr. President.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    That's fine.

    BARTLET
    You understand why, right?

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Do I need to know why?

    BARTLET
    It's not ego.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    I didn't think it was.

    BARTLET
    There are certain decisions I have to make while I'm in this room. Do I send troops into harm's way? Which fatal disease gets the most research money?

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Sure.

    BARTLET
    It's helpful in those situations not to think of yourself as the man but as the office.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Then Mr. President it is.
    Unfortunately, I doubt Macron’s reasoning is quite as constitutionally dispassionate as that.
    Why? His objection seems to be on the basis that this was at an official ceremony which is quite comparable.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland hasin the counties which would declare UDI

    Who pays for the police force, who pays the judges, the teachers, theand that is saying something.

    What an absurd question. The DUP already were the largest party in NI pre suspension in charge of NI's infrastructure, domestic policy and executive and with a DUP First Minister

    God bless you!! They were the largest party, not the only one, and did not command close to a majority of the electorate’s votes. I know you dig in rather than admit you’re wrong, but you’re making yourself look a tad foolish here :-D

  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
    Of course UDI, if recognised by the UK and EU27, also solves the border issue as far as the UK goes.
    Of course, a future PM Rees Mogg or Boris would be delighted to support and prop up a UDI state in Ulster
    But a future pm Corbyn might take a different view. Or any other future Labour PM I think.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,976
    Foxy said:

    After No 10 slapping down Hague, it sounds like Javid doesn't really much care what No 10 thinks. It should be obvious that there's a real chance that the review might make recommendations that have implications well beyond prescribed medical use.
    It does seem as if he is departing considerably from his predecessors at the Home Office, and is carving out a post Brexit policy platform rather than getting bogged down in the quicksand of Brexit policy.
    Labour will almost certainly go into the GE with legalisation of cannabis in their manifesto which will be a young voter turnout machine. The tories might as well own the inevitable and deny Corbyn the considerable advantage.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258

    Macron in “you call me, Sir” moment with teenager:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/amp.dw.com/en/france-livid-emmanuel-macron-lectures-teenager-for-calling-him-manu/a-44285247

    I suppose Jupiter would do too.

    Reminds me of a scene from The West Wing:

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    I don't know how to address you. Would you prefer Jed or Mr. President?

    BARTLET
    To be honest, I prefer Mr. President.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    That's fine.

    BARTLET
    You understand why, right?

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Do I need to know why?

    BARTLET
    It's not ego.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    I didn't think it was.

    BARTLET
    There are certain decisions I have to make while I'm in this room. Do I send troops into harm's way? Which fatal disease gets the most research money?

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Sure.

    BARTLET
    It's helpful in those situations not to think of yourself as the man but as the office.

    FATHER CAVANAUGH
    Then Mr. President it is.
    Unfortunately, I doubt Macron’s reasoning is quite as constitutionally dispassionate as that.
    Why? His objection seems to be on the basis that this was at an official ceremony which is quite comparable.
    Look him up, his past utterances and his behaviour.

    He’s a self-obsessed egotist. He once compared himself to Jupiter.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    Cyclefree said:

    On this occasion I’m in total agreement with Dan Hodges:

    https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1008990049264898048?s=21

    Hilton is definitely in the 'revealed to be a complete shit in the last few years' top ten.
    I did hear a story that Dave says his biggest regret in employing people is not Andy Coulson but Steve Hilton.

    There’s a curious phenomenon of very liberal people somehow making the jump to the alt-right.
    A vision of hell, Hilton & Piers Morgan droning on endlessly about the virtues of Trump.
    What on earth is the justification for separating children from their parents? If they’re all arrested as illegal immigrants why not keep them together and deport them together?

    Separating children from their parents is utterly inhumane. I simply can’t see what on earth the US is seeking to achieve. Deporting illegal immigrants is one thing but do this as a family, surely?
    Cruelty is precisely the point of the policy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
    Of course UDI, if recognised by the UK and EU27, also solves the border issue as far as the UK goes.
    Of course, a future PM Rees Mogg or Boris would be delighted to support and prop up a UDI state in Ulster
    It isnt UDI in that circumstance, it is a colony.
    Well you said it
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track inwho recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
    Of course UDI, if recognised by the UK and EU27, also solves the border issue as far as the UK goes.
    Of course, a future PM Rees Mogg or Boris would be delighted to support and prop up a UDI state in Ulster
    It isnt UDI in that circumstance, it is a colony.

    It’s also going against a majority vote for reunification. Were the British government to do that we would become an international pariah. What’s more, it is highly unlikely the British electorate would tolerate it.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    edited June 2018

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On NI/Eire, you already have to box 8/9 and intrastat goods travelling over the border.

    Plus different rules for charging VAT. Plus excise duty. Plus different regulations, for example on fireworks. No-one has ever explained why all these differences, tariffs and paperwork requirements don't require physical border checks today, but other similar bureaucracy would in the future. It's an unanswerable question, which is why those seeking to make a mountain of the border molehill invariably ignore it.
    I’ve said on here before that NI is being used as a Trojan horse by the EU to force the UK into a much softer Brexit than it would like.
    I really don't know what they are doing. Their position is completely irrational. It might simply be that they have set up their absolute non-negotiable red lines by committee, and haven't noticed that one non-negotiable red line is incompatible with another.
    They realise that it would be impossible for any British government to put up or allow a hard border or have border controls in NI.

    That they are therefore seeming to argue for two diametrically opposed options shows that they understand the NI border dynamic better than many here on PB.
    So what are they trying to achieve? I'm genuinely baffled. In one breath they say with regret that the UK will become 'a third country' with no special status as far as the EU is concerned, the next moment they go on about the ECJ having to have jurisdiction over us and NI having to remain in the CU and Single Market...
    Gateauist, I think.

    (Or perhaps gateauiste ?)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    After No 10 slapping down Hague, it sounds like Javid doesn't really much care what No 10 thinks. It should be obvious that there's a real chance that the review might make recommendations that have implications well beyond prescribed medical use.
    It does seem as if he is departing considerably from his predecessors at the Home Office, and is carving out a post Brexit policy platform rather than getting bogged down in the quicksand of Brexit policy.
    Labour will almost certainly go into the GE with legalisation of cannabis in their manifesto which will be a young voter turnout machine. The tories might as well own the inevitable and deny Corbyn the considerable advantage.
    The only danger is if they go full legalization it will scare all those nice middle class yummy mummies and alike, who worry about their kids doing drugs i.e. the kind of folk who turn out for Jezfest.

    I think they will go for the US style for "medical" usage i.e. anybody complains on any sort of pain etc they can get an exemption.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2018
    Great idea of Trump's putting three year old kids in cages. i'm surprised May didn't think of it.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited June 2018
    Dura_Ace said:

    HYUFD said:

    fewer problems than Rhodesia

    That damns with faint praise.

    A 30 country situation with Armagh, Tyrone, Derry and Fermanagh in the republic might be demographically feasible but it might take a decade or two of slaughter to settle down. The rump NI of Antrim and Down would be the angriest place on earth. Trump could move the US embassy to West Belfast to calm things down.

    Well if the EU refuse to compromise and the Republic pushes a united Ireland do not rule it out completely in Protestant Ulster though of course it would create a lot of problems
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,916
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, working from expensive secure compounds guarded by armed police/security backed up by a system of checkpoints, road controls and armed force.

    we are not talking about a forested track in a nordic backwater but one of the most politically intractable problems in recent UK/Irish history whose political settlement currently is in suspension. Not a project fear but someone who recognises a big peace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic
    Northern Ireland has Catholics and Protestants living closely together throughout the province. There aren't many areas as you describe them.
    You obviously have not seen the NI 2017 general election map, a clear divide between Sinn Fein seats in Western border county NI and DUP seats in Eastern interior Northern Ireland with the exception of West Belfast


    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(Northern_Ireland)
    There a few seats which have enormous majorities for either side though. Some admittedly, but some are marginal.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, eace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland hasin the counties which would declare UDI

    Who pays for the police force, who pays the judges, the teachers, theand that is saying something.

    What an absurd question. The DUP already were the largest party in NI pre suspension in charge of NI's infrastructure, domestic policy and executive and with a DUP First Minister

    God bless you!! They were the largest party, not the only one, and did not command close to a majority of the electorate’s votes. I know you dig in rather than admit you’re wrong, but you’re making yourself look a tad foolish here :-D

    In Protestant Ulster the DUP did get a majority of votes actually once you exclude the Catholic border areas
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:



    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.

    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI

    Who pays for the police force, who pays the judges, the teachers, the doctors, the nurses, and so on? The white minority had full control of all Rhodesian infrastructure. The unionist minority who chose UDI would have no such control in NI. This is quite possibly the most ludicrous assertion I have ever read on here - and that is saying something.

    What an absurd question. The DUP already were the largest party in NI pre suspension in charge of NI's infrastructure, domestic policy and executive and with a DUP First Minister
    Riiiight. And who has control of it now? Or of the army, which in the final analysis is critical?

    But before you get there, how would a UDI government pay for anything? Where would its money come from? Who would collect it? How?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,976



    The only danger is if they go full legalization it will scare all those nice middle class yummy mummies and alike, who worry about their kids doing drugs i.e. the kind of folk who turn out for Jezfest.

    They aren't going to switch their vote for the Conservative and Upskirt Party over it though are they? A manifesto commitment to legalisation has no negatives for Labour.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is vidend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI
    Of course UDI, if recognised by the UK and EU27, also solves the border issue as far as the UK goes.
    Of course, a future PM Rees Mogg or Boris would be delighted to support and prop up a UDI state in Ulster
    But a future pm Corbyn might take a different view. Or any other future Labour PM I think.
    Corbyn still trails in the polls and is in opposition at the moment PM Boris or Mogg is more likely in the short term but Ulster Protestants will maintain their independence regardless of who is in No 10 and refuse to join the Republic
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:
    Trouble is, the border is what I would describe as "contested", ie a significant proportion of those living on either side or straddle it would not accept it.

    Whilst the suburbs and shires in England may feel that a few cameras is a small price to pay, the real cost is hundreds of publicly paid staff, eace dividend is in danger
    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.
    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland hasin the counties which would declare UDI

    Who pays for the police force, who pays the judges, the teachers, theand that is saying something.

    What an absurd question. The DUP already were the largest party in NI pre suspension in charge of NI's infrastructure, domestic policy and executive and with a DUP First Minister

    God bless you!! They were the largest party, not the only one, and did not command close to a majority of the electorate’s votes. I know you dig in rather than admit you’re wrong, but you’re making yourself look a tad foolish here :-D

    In Protestant Ulster the DUP did get a majority of votes actually once you exclude the Catholic border areas

    That, of course, is not the same thing.

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503

    Dura_Ace said:

    Foxy said:

    After No 10 slapping down Hague, it sounds like Javid doesn't really much care what No 10 thinks. It should be obvious that there's a real chance that the review might make recommendations that have implications well beyond prescribed medical use.
    It does seem as if he is departing considerably from his predecessors at the Home Office, and is carving out a post Brexit policy platform rather than getting bogged down in the quicksand of Brexit policy.
    Labour will almost certainly go into the GE with legalisation of cannabis in their manifesto which will be a young voter turnout machine. The tories might as well own the inevitable and deny Corbyn the considerable advantage.
    The only danger is if they go full legalization it will scare all those nice middle class yummy mummies and alike, who worry about their kids doing drugs i.e. the kind of folk who turn out for Jezfest.

    I think they will go for the US style for "medical" usage i.e. anybody complains on any sort of pain etc they can get an exemption.
    If it is to be allowed "for medical purposes" then it needs to pass the regulatory hurdles in terms of well designed trials, and licensed indications, with producers responsible for side effects.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,916

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:



    Yep. But tbf people who live in Perthshire, or Peterbrough or Primrose Hill don't understand and probably never will.

    They find it hard to imagine that this represented a typical bobby about to set off on his beat in NI.

    Long term (And probably long past when we're all dead) unification of Ireland is probably the best solution. But not in my lifetime I suspect.
    The DUP would likely declare UDI of all the Protestant areas of the interior of Northern Ireland rather than join the Republic, so reunification would only be in prospect for the Sinn Fein voting Catholic areas on the Northern Irish border with the Republic

    How would a UDI work in practice, do you think?

    Not that difficult, Northern Ireland has its own police force and legislature and runs most domestic policy. Smith's Rhodesia did it for years and they were a white minority unlike the Protestant majority in the counties which would declare UDI

    Who pays for the police force, who pays the judges, the teachers, the doctors, the nurses, and so on? The white minority had full control of all Rhodesian infrastructure. The unionist minority who chose UDI would have no such control in NI. This is quite possibly the most ludicrous assertion I have ever read on here - and that is saying something.

    What an absurd question. The DUP already were the largest party in NI pre suspension in charge of NI's infrastructure, domestic policy and executive and with a DUP First Minister
    Riiiight. And who has control of it now? Or of the army, which in the final analysis is critical?

    But before you get there, how would a UDI government pay for anything? Where would its money come from? Who would collect it? How?
    I thought the DUP HAD found the magic money tree!
This discussion has been closed.