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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Losing today’s Brexit vote could prove fatal for Mrs. May’s pr

SystemSystem Posts: 11,008
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Losing today’s Brexit vote could prove fatal for Mrs. May’s premiership

After the Brexit bill defeat for the government on the in the Lords on Monday the issue is now back in the commons and there’ll be a big vote on whether to accept what the Lord’s decided.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    edited June 2018
    1st like Jezza next time
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,799
    My guess would be the government wins this by 10-16.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 38% (-1)
    LDEM: 11% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 05 - 08 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 04 May
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,387
    Sean_F said:

    My guess would be the government wins this by 10-16.

    That's an awful lot of abstentions...
    :smile:
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    If the Government lost today's vote and May went Brexiteer Tory MPs and Tory members would ensure a tougher Brexiteer like Boris, Gove or Mogg replaced her as PM and Tory leader to see down the Tory rebels.

    I expect both Grieve and Soubry would be deselected by their Tory Associations within a month.

    However I think May will scrape home thanks to the votes of Labour Leave rebels like Field, Hoey, Mann and Stringer
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Any ETA for the result?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    edited June 2018
    bigjohnowls said:

    1st like Jezza next time

    I suspect that any election would make for a truly hung parliament, with a Grand Coalition the only prospect of a government. That may well work as a Brexit policy, but I could not see it work for anything social or economic.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    What time is todays vote. Anyone know?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Any ETA for the result?

    Vote should be at 2:45pm so I’d expect the result just after 3pm.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm expecting Theresa May to win this vote. Not all of the regular rebels are behind this one (and for good reason, while I can understand the frustration that the sane end of the Conservative party has with Theresa May's slipperiness, the idea behind this amendment is ultimately not well thought-out). So she should scrape home.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Was last weeks vote 316 - 298 Did Grieve et al vote with the Government or abstain
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    So, who do Grieve/Soubry/Wollaston etc want as Prime Minister:

    Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

    As you have said about 10 times already this year!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

    This could be the most important day for Parliament since last week.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    HYUFD said:

    If the Government lost today's vote and May went Brexiteer Tory MPs and Tory members would ensure a tougher Brexiteer like Boris, Gove or Mogg replaced her as PM and Tory leader to see down the Tory rebels.

    I expect both Grieve and Soubry would be deselected by their Tory Associations within a month.

    However I think May will scrape home thanks to the votes of Labour Leave rebels like Field, Hoey, Mann and Stringer

    If losing the vote would lead to a Brexiteer PM, that's a good reason for Labour leavers to vote with their party.

    But yes, it seems likely May will win this one.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    edited June 2018
    It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

    If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

    Hurrah for Mrs May.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

    Or not.

    The original vote to take the UK into the EEC was more important - and was also carried by Labour rebels neutralising the effect of their Tory counterparts.

    Also:

    The Iraq War vote;
    The 1979 confidence vote;
    Howe's resignation speech;

    To name three. There are probably examples from 1945-70 too but my history is a bit more sketchy there.

    As an aside, Chamberlain 'won' the vote on the Norway debate.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Cheers, Mr. Eagles. Does that account for a possible delay due to the Hunt announcement?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

    Or not.

    The original vote to take the UK into the EEC was more important - and was also carried by Labour rebels neutralising the effect of their Tory counterparts.

    Also:

    The Iraq War vote;
    The 1979 confidence vote;
    Howe's resignation speech;

    To name three. There are probably examples from 1945-70 too but my history is a bit more sketchy there.

    As an aside, Chamberlain 'won' the vote on the Norway debate.
    Chamberlain won the battle but lost the war.

    As with all things it is the size of the rebellion.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    Stereotomy said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the Government lost today's vote and May went Brexiteer Tory MPs and Tory members would ensure a tougher Brexiteer like Boris, Gove or Mogg replaced her as PM and Tory leader to see down the Tory rebels.

    I expect both Grieve and Soubry would be deselected by their Tory Associations within a month.

    However I think May will scrape home thanks to the votes of Labour Leave rebels like Field, Hoey, Mann and Stringer

    If losing the vote would lead to a Brexiteer PM, that's a good reason for Labour leavers to vote with their party.

    But yes, it seems likely May will win this one.
    Labour Leavers will vote with their conscience not to indirectly get PM Boris Johnson I expect
  • Options
    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    bigjohnowls said:

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 38% (-1)
    LDEM: 11% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 05 - 08 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 04 May

    Looks like the Jez fest had an impact.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,943
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

    If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

    Hurrah for Mrs May.

    Only until December 2020
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    AlastairMeeks said:

    I'm expecting Theresa May to win this vote. Not all of the regular rebels are behind this one (and for good reason, while I can understand the frustration that the sane end of the Conservative party has with Theresa May's slipperiness, the idea behind this amendment is ultimately not well thought-out). So she should scrape home.

    :+1:

    And there are enough Labour rebels to help her out.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    May will win today, like Major won Maastricht. Labour will let her off the hook, but the divisions in the Tory party will fester.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    Yorkcity said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 38% (-1)
    LDEM: 11% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 05 - 08 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 04 May

    Looks like the Jez fest had an impact.
    Fieldwork was well before Jezfest.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

    If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

    Hurrah for Mrs May.

    Some people keep forgetting the golden rule of Brexit...
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    I don't expect a defeat today.

    Close, sure. Maybe Govt by 2....
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

    Or not.

    The original vote to take the UK into the EEC was more important - and was also carried by Labour rebels neutralising the effect of their Tory counterparts.

    Also:

    The Iraq War vote;
    The 1979 confidence vote;
    Howe's resignation speech;

    To name three. There are probably examples from 1945-70 too but my history is a bit more sketchy there.

    As an aside, Chamberlain 'won' the vote on the Norway debate.
    Chamberlain won the battle but lost the war.
    Unlike Churchill who was actually responsible for the Norway debacle that sank Chamberlain in favour of himself.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

    If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

    Hurrah for Mrs May.

    Some people keep forgetting the golden rule of Brexit...
    Project Fear keeps on becoming Project Reality?

    I mean I remember the same PB Leavers who now say we should prepare for No Deal/WTO saying prior to the referendum that no deal was Project Fear.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Is it losing or winning the vote that will trigger most letters to the 1922 Committee? I'm losing track but isn't either result going to annoy a lot of MPs?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Eagles, it turns out Varadkar reversing Kenny's policy of co-operative action, capitulation from May, and being undermined by the Lords et al. hasn't led to the best possible outcome. Whoever would have guessed it?

    Almost like sending the opening pair out only to discover the captain's broken their bats.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

    If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

    Hurrah for Mrs May.

    Some people keep forgetting the golden rule of Brexit...
    Each time you think the government has reached peak incompetence, it discovers a whole new level that no one thought possible.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Yorkcity said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    LAB: 41% (+2)
    CON: 38% (-1)
    LDEM: 11% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    via @BMGResearch, 05 - 08 Jun
    Chgs. w/ 04 May

    Looks like the Jez fest had an impact.
    LOL
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    Feels like following the England team at the world cup today. If I expect to lose before kick-off, I either get to enjoy the victory or appreciate my foresight and good judgement.

    So let's all predict the Government to win, on that basis.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,137
    Goodman's tweet emphasises what is at stake here. The pressure on Tory rebels will be immense. I expect a reasonably comfortable victory for May for that reason. Surely no one wants the chaos of a leadership election at this point.

    Like @Alastair_Meeks I am having some trouble working out how the Lords amendment is supposed to work in the real world anyway. It seems to work on the hypothesis that Parliament will have choices which will not in fact exist and are not in our gift. Which is a bit silly if you think about it.

    Tessie dropped me an e-mail this morning telling me that she had given the NHS a birthday present that she was going to fund with money from the EU contributions and a tax increase. I'm sure that is just a coincidence.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Which Tories will vote with Grieve?

    Clarke and Soubry from last week

    Woolaston, Grieve, that bloke who resigned last week to abstain.

    Anyone else
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, it turns out Varadkar reversing Kenny's policy of co-operative action, capitulation from May, and being undermined by the Lords et al. hasn't led to the best possible outcome. Whoever would have guessed it?

    Almost like sending the opening pair out only to discover the captain's broken their bats.

    But you Leavers said it would be easy.

    That they needed us more than we needed them.

    I said it was bollocks at the time.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    DavidL said:

    Goodman's tweet emphasises what is at stake here. The pressure on Tory rebels will be immense. I expect a reasonably comfortable victory for May for that reason. Surely no one wants the chaos of a leadership election at this point.

    Like @Alastair_Meeks I am having some trouble working out how the Lords amendment is supposed to work in the real world anyway. It seems to work on the hypothesis that Parliament will have choices which will not in fact exist and are not in our gift. Which is a bit silly if you think about it.

    Tessie dropped me an e-mail this morning telling me that she had given the NHS a birthday present that she was going to fund with money from the EU contributions and a tax increase. I'm sure that is just a coincidence.

    Did she tell you which taxes or ask you to help her find the Magic Money Tree
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,845
    edited June 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

    If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

    Hurrah for Mrs May.

    Some people keep forgetting the golden rule of Brexit...
    Project Fear keeps on becoming Project Reality?

    I mean I remember the same PB Leavers who now say we should prepare for No Deal/WTO saying prior to the referendum that no deal was Project Fear.
    Leavers lied then, are lying now, and are lying to themselves.

    Sad to watch a country go down in flames.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

    Or not.

    The original vote to take the UK into the EEC was more important - and was also carried by Labour rebels neutralising the effect of their Tory counterparts.

    Also:

    The Iraq War vote;
    The 1979 confidence vote;
    Howe's resignation speech;

    To name three. There are probably examples from 1945-70 too but my history is a bit more sketchy there.

    As an aside, Chamberlain 'won' the vote on the Norway debate.
    Chamberlain won the battle but lost the war.

    As with all things it is the size of the rebellion.
    True. That said, he'd have been out within months anyway because of ill-health. That's not to underplay the significance of those few weeks and the decisions taken in them (though it should be noted that Chamberlain came out as opposed to Halifax's suggestion that peace feelers be followed up), nor of *how* the transition from Chamberlain to Churchill came about. All the same, there's a good case that the Norway vote wasn't as important as history sometimes makes it out to be, as Churchill was likely to be effective or actual PM by mid-summer anyway.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2018
    The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

    One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But it's now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and is moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

    Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,137
    bigjohnowls said:

    DavidL said:

    Goodman's tweet emphasises what is at stake here. The pressure on Tory rebels will be immense. I expect a reasonably comfortable victory for May for that reason. Surely no one wants the chaos of a leadership election at this point.

    Like @Alastair_Meeks I am having some trouble working out how the Lords amendment is supposed to work in the real world anyway. It seems to work on the hypothesis that Parliament will have choices which will not in fact exist and are not in our gift. Which is a bit silly if you think about it.

    Tessie dropped me an e-mail this morning telling me that she had given the NHS a birthday present that she was going to fund with money from the EU contributions and a tax increase. I'm sure that is just a coincidence.

    Did she tell you which taxes or ask you to help her find the Magic Money Tree
    She said:

    "And as a country taxpayers will have to contribute a bit more for the NHS in a fair and balanced way."

    So that would be a no then. Her style's not exactly chatty is it?
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    brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This could be the most important day for Parliament since the Norway debate.

    We were told that about last week's votes.

    It really won't be!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, it turns out Varadkar reversing Kenny's policy of co-operative action, capitulation from May, and being undermined by the Lords et al. hasn't led to the best possible outcome. Whoever would have guessed it?

    Almost like sending the opening pair out only to discover the captain's broken their bats.

    But you Leavers said it would be easy.

    That they needed us more than we needed them.

    I said it was bollocks at the time.
    We still have that Trump Card dont we?


    Some people actually believed we did.

    Funny but sad what power the right wing press have.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Eagles, if I make you a sandwich and say it's tasty, and you pour in iron filings, then complain it's horrid, whose fault is that?

    The EU has not acted sincerely or fairly, May has dithered and capitulated, and Grieve et al have given more thought to the side facing the UK across the negotiating table.

    The Establishment is deliberately acting to try and dilute, delay and, if possible, prevent our departure by making the pain as much as possible so the alternative seems better. I predicted this as a credible outcome, along with the possibility of a second referendum (between the terrible deal negotiated and remaining in after all), as did others, quite some time ago.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, if I make you a sandwich and say it's tasty, and you pour in iron filings, then complain it's horrid, whose fault is that?

    The EU has not acted sincerely or fairly, May has dithered and capitulated, and Grieve et al have given more thought to the side facing the UK across the negotiating table.

    The Establishment is deliberately acting to try and dilute, delay and, if possible, prevent our departure by making the pain as much as possible so the alternative seems better. I predicted this as a credible outcome, along with the possibility of a second referendum (between the terrible deal negotiated and remaining in after all), as did others, quite some time ago.

    Except it wasn’t a tasty sandwich you gave me, it was sandwich full of crap.
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    bigjohnowls said:

    Which Tories will vote with Grieve?

    Clarke and Soubry from last week

    Woolaston, Grieve, that bloke who resigned last week to abstain.

    Anyone else

    So start with those 5, and I'd have thought Antoinette Sandbach, Heidi Allen, Bob Neill and Stephen Hammond likely.

    Then a decent number from Oliver Heald, Paul Masterson, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Mark Pawsey Justine Greening, Vicky Ford, Jeremy LeFroy, Ed Vaizey - some of whom may abstain.

    And if anyone like Tom Tugendhat doesn't support the govt, the writing is probably on the wall.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

    One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

    Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

    You were a we hold all the carder

    What went wrong?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,137
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

    One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

    Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

    I think your understandable frustration is getting the better of you Richard. I see very little evidence of damage yet on either side of the channel. But the risk is still there and this obsession with re-arguing the principle instead of focussing on the best deal is tiresome.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    tpfkar said:

    Feels like following the England team at the world cup today. If I expect to lose before kick-off, I either get to enjoy the victory or appreciate my foresight and good judgement.

    So let's all predict the Government to win, on that basis.

    The government will win , however if it was a draw , as ever like England would lose on penalties.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Mr. Eagles, we'll never know what the deal would like if the EU had acted sincerely, if May weren't a dithering incompetent, or if Grieve et al had been more concerned with the British than the EU interest.

    Furthermore, you said yourself that you wanted to leave but in 10 years' time. The bizarre notion a decade of deeper integration would make leaving easier is the kind of triangulating nonsense, murmuring sceptical noises and making EU-phile decisions, that got the political class to drag the country (without asking the electorate) so far from its preferred position.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It was suggested to me the other day the reason Mrs May lied and screwed over Grieve was to ensure the ERG mob couldn’t derail the final exit/transition deal.

    If true we can expect BINO/vassal statehood.

    Hurrah for Mrs May.

    What evidence do you have of any foresight or planning by Mrs May? Let alone political cunning and skill!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    That was the Guardian's main criticism of JezFest...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

    One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

    Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

    You were a we hold all the carder

    What went wrong?
    No I wasn't.

    I did think last December that the signs were looking somewhat encouraging, but we seem to have gone backwards since then.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited June 2018
    It’s quite bullish for the government on here today! I wish I shared the majority sentiment.

    If May loses, it’s time for a leadership election.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2018
    Forget strawberry shortages,

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/06/20/carbon-dioxide-shortage-threatens-fizzy-drink-beer-sales/
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, we'll never know what the deal would like if the EU had acted sincerely, if May weren't a dithering incompetent, or if Grieve et al had been more concerned with the British than the EU interest.

    Furthermore, you said yourself that you wanted to leave but in 10 years' time. The bizarre notion a decade of deeper integration would make leaving easier is the kind of triangulating nonsense, murmuring sceptical noises and making EU-phile decisions, that got the political class to drag the country (without asking the electorate) so far from its preferred position.

    I said I wanted to Leave if the eurozone turned into a fully fledged political union replete with a single budget and political system.

    Whilst I’m no fan of economic and monetary union it is crazy to have that and not political union.

    Plus we’d have left with several other countries which would have made things easier.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

    One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But it's now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and is moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

    Not sure about that. Continuity Remainers are no more responsible for May’s Government fouling up Brexit than Charles Kennedy was responsible for Blair’s Government fouling up Iraq.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2018
    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    Even the big panels shows aren't funny these days. Would the Office get commissioned these days, all a bit too white and in the "me too" era, David Brent is on dodgy ground.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,298
    edited June 2018
    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    tpfkar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Which Tories will vote with Grieve?

    Clarke and Soubry from last week

    Woolaston, Grieve, that bloke who resigned last week to abstain.

    Anyone else

    So start with those 5, and I'd have thought Antoinette Sandbach, Heidi Allen, Bob Neill and Stephen Hammond likely.

    Then a decent number from Oliver Heald, Paul Masterson, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Mark Pawsey Justine Greening, Vicky Ford, Jeremy LeFroy, Ed Vaizey - some of whom may abstain.

    And if anyone like Tom Tugendhat doesn't support the govt, the writing is probably on the wall.
    Thanks for that

    Should win with Lab. leave help then presumably?

    I see SeanF reckons 10-16

    Mortimer 2


    What would be your guess given 5 Labour leavers vote with the Government somewhere between the 2?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    edited June 2018
    Mr. Eagles, ha. Now who's fantasising?

    A decade of deeper integration would've made leaving far harder. Most other countries are in the euro or on track to join it.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles, happy concord that we can agree on Mrs Brown's Boys. The laugh alone is blood-boilingly annoying.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,137
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.
    Good. Pineapple on Pizza and Radiohead are harmless eccentricities by comparison.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.
    It certainly is a hit. Lord only knows why though.

    Perhaps it is popular in Leaverstan.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.
    I would rather listen to Radiohead Live at Glastonbury on repeat for 24hrs than have to watch one episode of that thing....
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

    One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

    Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

    I think your understandable frustration is getting the better of you Richard. I see very little evidence of damage yet on either side of the channel. But the risk is still there and this obsession with re-arguing the principle instead of focussing on the best deal is tiresome.
    It's true that currently the damage is limited - we'll end up at the end of this year with GDP somewhere between 1.5% and 2.5% less than trend. That's not good, of course, but it's not the end of the world if it's a temporary blip. However, the prospect of a good deal for the City has now receded, and in any case it's too late. So there will be further seepage over the next few years. I don't think we'll ever get that lost growth back, and we'll probably have several years of underperformance.

    Of course that isn't the worst-case scenario - it's the car manufacturing industry which is most at risk. I'm cautiously optimistic that some customs arrangement will be found to avoid massive damage on that score, but the risk remains substantial..
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,921
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.
    It certainly is a hit. Lord only knows why though.

    Perhaps it is popular in Leaverstan.
    Mrs Brown's Boys was being discussed on Radio 4 a good while back. It was funny hearing the presenter try to treat the subject with any amount of seriousness - you could almost hear him thinking: "What is this sh*te I'm having to talk about?"

    In fact, it was funnier than Mrs Brown's Boys itself ...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,137
    edited June 2018
    Foxy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.
    It certainly is a hit. Lord only knows why though.

    Perhaps it is popular in Leaverstan.
    Oh please go back to calling us xenophobic racists. It is much less hurtful.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,982
    I wonder what the next ruble fuelled wheeze after Brexit will be. Quitting NATO? Corbyn government. Anything's possible!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    It appears the neighbours are trying to recreate Radiohead at Glastonbury at this very moment, three of them have got their strimmers out and busy whirring away all at different pitches.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Paris terror suspect Salah Abdeslam is rushed to hospital from prison 'in extreme pain' with suspected appendicitis

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5864503/Paris-terror-suspect-Salah-Abdeslam-rushed-hospital.html

    Don't rush, take your time treating him.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Talking of Monty Python...John Cleese really is an unfunny bitter twisted man these days.

    John Cleese slams Belgians as 'lazy, fat, beer-sodden, pseudo-French b******s' as he says audience in the country was worst of his latest tour

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5864309/John-Cleese-slams-Belgians-lazy-fat-beer-sodden-pseudo-French-b-s.html
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    Even the big panels shows aren't funny these days. Would the Office get commissioned these days, all a bit too white and in the "me too" era, David Brent is on dodgy ground.
    The best British sitcoms have been always about 2 things.

    1. The Class system
    2. People stuck in places and situations which frustrate them

    Both of which aren't in line with 'modern' thinking.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Gavin & Stacey is probably the last really funny BBC comedy that I've seen.

    I'm not a fan of Mrs Brown's Boys, but having seen how much pleasure it gives to a lot of people, I'm not going to be sniffy about it. Different people like different things.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827
    edited June 2018
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

    One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

    Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

    You were a we hold all the carder

    What went wrong?
    No I wasn't.

    I did think last December that the signs were looking somewhat encouraging, but we seem to have gone backwards since then.
    Deleted
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    If anyone says Mrs Brown’s Boys then they are getting smote with the banhammer.
    You just said it
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,546
    bigjohnowls said:

    tpfkar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Which Tories will vote with Grieve?

    Clarke and Soubry from last week

    Woolaston, Grieve, that bloke who resigned last week to abstain.

    Anyone else

    So start with those 5, and I'd have thought Antoinette Sandbach, Heidi Allen, Bob Neill and Stephen Hammond likely.

    Then a decent number from Oliver Heald, Paul Masterson, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Mark Pawsey Justine Greening, Vicky Ford, Jeremy LeFroy, Ed Vaizey - some of whom may abstain.

    And if anyone like Tom Tugendhat doesn't support the govt, the writing is probably on the wall.
    Thanks for that

    Should win with Lab. leave help then presumably?

    I see SeanF reckons 10-16

    Mortimer 2


    What would be your guess given 5 Labour leavers vote with the Government somewhere between the 2?
    Depends how many bottle it at the last minute. My guess is that the Government whips will be very persuasive when it comes to it, and the Government aren't making any noises about further concessions / compromise like they were last week, so they've either decided to ride out the loss or think they will win it - my money's on the second.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2018
    I have just thought of another recent hit BBC comedy, Car Share. Not for me, but very popular. I much preferred Phoenix Nights.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    bigjohnowls said:


    You definitely said they need us more than we need them and babbled on about German cars


    I remember arguing with you at the time.

    You remember wrongly.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,137
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I think your understandable frustration is getting the better of you Richard. I see very little evidence of damage yet on either side of the channel. But the risk is still there and this obsession with re-arguing the principle instead of focussing on the best deal is tiresome.
    It's true that currently the damage is limited - we'll end up at the end of this year with GDP somewhere between 1.5% and 2.5% less than trend. That's not good, of course, but it's not the end of the world if it's a temporary blip. However, the prospect of a good deal for the City has now receded, and in any case it's too late. So there will be further seepage over the next few years. So I don't think we'll ever get that lost growth back, and we'll probably have several years of underperformance.

    Of course that isn't the worst-case scenario - it's the car manufacturing industry which is most at risk. I'm cautiously optimistic that some customs arrangement will be found to avoid massive damage on that score, but the risk remains substantial..
    There are a lot of things that affect trend growth, most of them much more important than Brexit. We are still trying to reduce a serious deficit, for example. We kept growth going by having increasingly loose lending and there are signs that even the great British consumer is borrowed out. We are still, even now, messing about with essential infrastructure like Heathrow. Since the start of the year our trading partners in the EU seem to be suffering a slow down. Trump is being a complete arse, even by his low standards, in relation to tariffs.

    To say that we have not met trend growth in the 2 years leading up to Brexit, therefore Brexit is the cause, is far too simplistic. I do agree that we seem to have gone backwards since December in the negotiations though.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Slackbladder said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    When was the last knock out Comedy Hit the Beeb had. The Office?
    The Office wasn't funny.

    Detectorists is in with a shout.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    There are a lot of things that affect trend growth, most of them much more important than Brexit. We are still trying to reduce a serious deficit, for example. We kept growth going by having increasingly loose lending and there are signs that even the great British consumer is borrowed out. We are still, even now, messing about with essential infrastructure like Heathrow. Since the start of the year our trading partners in the EU seem to be suffering a slow down. Trump is being a complete arse, even by his low standards, in relation to tariffs.

    To say that we have not met trend growth in the 2 years leading up to Brexit, therefore Brexit is the cause, is far too simplistic. I do agree that we seem to have gone backwards since December in the negotiations though.

    In economics you don't get to be able to rerun the experiment with a different reality, but I think the evidence for the effect I described is overwhelming. The key metric is to look at how well we were doing relative to other similar economies pre-referendum, and compare it with how well we've been doing in the last year or so. It's a pretty stark contrast.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,158
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    That was the Guardian's main criticism of JezFest...
    And what if they are funny? Is that now an irrelevant consideration? Who cares where they were educated, what sex they are or the colour of their skin. What matters is whether they are funny.

    Had the BBC paid more attention to that it would not be commissioning the execrable Mrs Brown’s Boys.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "'Oxbridge white blokes' like Monty Python have had their day, says BBC comedy boss"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/19/oxbridge-white-blokes-like-monty-python-have-had-day-says-bbc/

    That was the Guardian's main criticism of JezFest...
    And what if they are funny? Is that now an irrelevant consideration? Who cares where they were educated, what sex they are or the colour of their skin. What matters is whether they are funny.

    Had the BBC paid more attention to that it would not be commissioning the execrable Mrs Brown’s Boys.
    And why we somehow ended up with 5 seasons of Citizen Khan...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,137
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    There are a lot of things that affect trend growth, most of them much more important than Brexit. We are still trying to reduce a serious deficit, for example. We kept growth going by having increasingly loose lending and there are signs that even the great British consumer is borrowed out. We are still, even now, messing about with essential infrastructure like Heathrow. Since the start of the year our trading partners in the EU seem to be suffering a slow down. Trump is being a complete arse, even by his low standards, in relation to tariffs.

    To say that we have not met trend growth in the 2 years leading up to Brexit, therefore Brexit is the cause, is far too simplistic. I do agree that we seem to have gone backwards since December in the negotiations though.

    In economics you don't get to be able to rerun the experiment with a different reality, but I think the evidence for the effect I described is overwhelming. The key metric is to look at how well we were dong relative to other similar economies pre-referendum, and compare it with how well we've been doing in the last year or so. It's a pretty stark contrast.
    No, that just shows we were at different points in the cycle. The UK grew much faster than the EZ after the crash. This was partly Osborne's excellent management but also a consequence of a much more accommodative monetary policy encouraging growth. Eventually that has to change and the EZ caught up a bit. Still behind though.
  • Options
    asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    edited June 2018
    bigjohnowls said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    The whole situation is completely mad. The clock is ticking, we should be in intensive negotiations with the EU. In fact we should have already largely completed negotiations. Instead we are arguing vehemently with ourselves about hypothetical scenarios and options which don't exist. Meanwhile the EU seems equally out with the fairies.

    One can only hope that there is some real discussion going on behind the scenes, and that some last-minute fudge will be created. But its now too late for business, and especially for the City, which is having to assume no deal and moving jobs accordingly. Unnecessary damage to our economy (and indeed the EU27's) is now inevitable - and the continuity Remainers and the Lords are at least as much to blame as the headbanging wing of the Brexiteer contingent.

    Edit: Having said that, I agree with those who say the government will win this particular vote. However, the guerrilla attacks will no doubt continue.

    You were a we hold all the carder

    What went wrong?
    We played them very poorly. Should have set clear expectations upfront and tied them to cash and security.

    At least if we have a no deal then we don't have to give them a penny.

    If there is no middle ground between vassal state and no deal, I think the British people will say "no deal".

    As was suggested the other day it probably ends the union as we know it and leaves an rump England & Wales out of the EU long term, with a united ireland and Scotland on fast track to the euro and a hard border at Berwick.

    Still, freedom has it's price, and we shouldn't flinch from paying it.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Paris terror suspect Salah Abdeslam is rushed to hospital from prison 'in extreme pain' with suspected appendicitis

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5864503/Paris-terror-suspect-Salah-Abdeslam-rushed-hospital.html

    Don't rush, take your time treating him.

    Do people still get appendicitis? When I was at school, classmates were always disappearing to have their tonsils or appendix whipped out but you don't hear of it these days; mumps and whooping cough also seem to have fallen right off.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Thank god, it seems the Radiohead tribute act has finished.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,969
    Miss Cyclefree, for some, 'diversity' trumps competence. There's been some furore over comments Shriver made regarding Penguin's drive for diversity, including Shriver being axed from a judging panel.

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1008363778474496005

    On a more minor note, last year I was attacked somewhat on Twitter for my apparently odious claim that books should be judged on quality, not the demographics of the author (but I would say that, being an evil white man...).
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,158
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I have just thought of another recent hit BBC comedy, Car Share. Not for me, but very popular. I much preferred Phoenix Nights.

    I liked Car Share. And W1A which, for me, captured the idiocies of management like nothing else. The Worst Week of My Life was also very good. But I tend to prefer observational comedy anyway.

    I liked Gavin and Stacey first time round but less so when I’ve seen repeats. Most of the comedy panel shows are dire - the jokes being obvious and predictable.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,158
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Cyclefree, for some, 'diversity' trumps competence. There's been some furore over comments Shriver made regarding Penguin's drive for diversity, including Shriver being axed from a judging panel.

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1008363778474496005

    On a more minor note, last year I was attacked somewhat on Twitter for my apparently odious claim that books should be judged on quality, not the demographics of the author (but I would say that, being an evil white man...).

    Indeed, we risk becoming as a society quite as obsessed with minute gradations of skin colour and other irrelevant and unchangeable characteristics as some historically evil and unpleasant regimes. It is not an improvement.

    And the one thing which probably affects your chances in Britain more than any other - class - is all too often ignored.

    https://unherd.com/2018/04/diversity-debate-left-white-working-classes-behind/
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,276
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    There are a lot of things that affect trend growth, most of them much more important than Brexit. We are still trying to reduce a serious deficit, for example. We kept growth going by having increasingly loose lending and there are signs that even the great British consumer is borrowed out. We are still, even now, messing about with essential infrastructure like Heathrow. Since the start of the year our trading partners in the EU seem to be suffering a slow down. Trump is being a complete arse, even by his low standards, in relation to tariffs.

    To say that we have not met trend growth in the 2 years leading up to Brexit, therefore Brexit is the cause, is far too simplistic. I do agree that we seem to have gone backwards since December in the negotiations though.

    In economics you don't get to be able to rerun the experiment with a different reality, but I think the evidence for the effect I described is overwhelming. The key metric is to look at how well we were doing relative to other similar economies pre-referendum, and compare it with how well we've been doing in the last year or so. It's a pretty stark contrast.
    Well, yeah. We have no certainty on our long-term trading arrangements with the EU at the moment, so of course some investment and growth decisions are being deferred/delayed.

    I expect a much smaller impact once that’s all settled down (by 2021) and an imperceptible difference between the UK pre-Brexit and post-Brexit trends by c.2030.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,276
    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder what the next ruble fuelled wheeze after Brexit will be. Quitting NATO? Corbyn government. Anything's possible!

    Serious question, do you support Corbyn?

    I thought you were a big cheerleader of his.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,137
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Miss Cyclefree, for some, 'diversity' trumps competence. There's been some furore over comments Shriver made regarding Penguin's drive for diversity, including Shriver being axed from a judging panel.

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1008363778474496005

    On a more minor note, last year I was attacked somewhat on Twitter for my apparently odious claim that books should be judged on quality, not the demographics of the author (but I would say that, being an evil white man...).

    I am mildly embarrassed to admit that until this furore I had actually thought Lionel Shriver was a man and I had not read any of her works. But she can write and is on my reading list now. Anyone got a particular recommendation?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,276
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, it turns out Varadkar reversing Kenny's policy of co-operative action, capitulation from May, and being undermined by the Lords et al. hasn't led to the best possible outcome. Whoever would have guessed it?

    Almost like sending the opening pair out only to discover the captain's broken their bats.

    But you Leavers said it would be easy.

    That they needed us more than we needed them.

    I said it was bollocks at the time.
    There’s just as much bollocks on the other side of the channel.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Bavaria and Austria to work together on restricting immigration


    http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/asylfrage-kurz-und-soeder-loben-gemeinsame-haltung-15649615.html
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    bigjohnowls said:


    You definitely said they need us more than we need them and babbled on about German cars


    I remember arguing with you at the time.

    You remember wrongly.
    Hold on, I thought Big John voted to leave and Richard voted to remain, yet I'm looking through the conversation, and it seems the opposite way round !
    Has vanilla switched the quotes ?
This discussion has been closed.