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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: NHS funding, ‘Brexit dividends

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  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    TOPPING said:



    No idea about that I wouldn't be surprised if it's outsourced.

    All MoD fire and rescue services were outsourced to Capita by Michael Fallon.
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 441

    Mr. Topping, trolling? Otherwise that analogy is utterly flawed.

    Nobody thinks Star Wars is real. That doesn't mean people enjoy the rules of the universe being changed, or characters being rewritten. Internal consistency and plot coherence matter, as does not taking fans for granted.

    I'm not clear how Last Jedi changed the rules of the universe. Some of the stuff I've seen alleging this is ridiculous. We've always known spaceships in Star Wars needed fuel so the idea they might run out of fuel is not that surprising. Similarly some of the stuff I've seen complaining about Leia's excursion into space makes statements about what would happen in real life that are just plain wrong.

    Yes, the film added a couple of additional things that those powerful in the Force can do with it but that's been going on forever. And, given that the dead can use the Force to appear to the living, the additional things didn't seem particularly out of line to me.

    Yes, Luke has changed but he is much older. Most of us change over time.

    It does, of course, get the physics of space travel wrong in the same way as most SF films - sound in space, spacecraft needing to burn fuel to keep going at the same speed, etc. But those things crop up so often in SF that I've learnt to ignore them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:



    No idea about that I wouldn't be surprised if it's outsourced.

    All MoD fire and rescue services were outsourced to Capita by Michael Fallon.
    Crapita!?!? So who is running them now? And what sort of state are they in?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:



    No idea about that I wouldn't be surprised if it's outsourced.

    All MoD fire and rescue services were outsourced to Capita by Michael Fallon.
    Crapita!?!? So who is running them now? And what sort of state are they in?
    We’re probably just hoping nothing catches fire.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    Good government borrowing figures:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/may2018#revisions-since-previous-release

    2017/18 was now £39.5bn compared with the £45.2bn predicted by the OBR in March.

    After two months 2018/19 is £4.2bn lower than after two months of 2017/18 - which is again better than the OBR forecast.

    I think Hammond has been given his extra NHS money - I'm not sure he'll be that pleased.

    So the OBR was £5.7bn out in their forecasts of the deficit one month before the end of the financial year? That's comfortably more than a 10% error. I'd really like to think that someone might be facing the sack for that level of incompetence.

    I also find it remarkable that an economy that was, according to official figures, barely growing managed to increase employment by over 400k and reduce the deficit by £6.2bn. The latter number is even more remarkable when you consider that public spending rose at a fairly fast rate.
    The economy is doing well and the deficit is nearly gone #despiteHammond
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    MaxPB said:

    The PSF figures don't make any kind of sense. There is nominal tax growth of around 4.5% YoY, inflation is running at 2.6%. The growth in government tax receipts is not consistent with stated GDP growth, especially given the lack of tax rises (and in some cases falling tax rates).

    There is a disconnect, the deficit can't be falling as rapidly as it is if the economy saw just 1.2% YoY growth.

    It is also somewhat odd that IT receipts rose that sharply when we were told that earnings were below inflation for most of the year and falling in real terms. It suggests those that are self employed (an ever expanding part of the workforce of course) are doing somewhat better. Which is again surprising if the GDP figure is right.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    The PSF figures don't make any kind of sense. There is nominal tax growth of around 4.5% YoY, inflation is running at 2.6%. The growth in government tax receipts is not consistent with stated GDP growth, especially given the lack of tax rises (and in some cases falling tax rates).

    There is a disconnect, the deficit can't be falling as rapidly as it is if the economy saw just 1.2% YoY growth.

    It is also somewhat odd that IT receipts rose that sharply when we were told that earnings were below inflation for most of the year and falling in real terms. It suggests those that are self employed (an ever expanding part of the workforce of course) are doing somewhat better. Which is again surprising if the GDP figure is right.
    Perhaps the GDP figure is underestimating activity. See also productivity figures.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:



    No idea about that I wouldn't be surprised if it's outsourced.

    All MoD fire and rescue services were outsourced to Capita by Michael Fallon.
    Yeah, that's what I was told when I looked at it. Just googled it again and Capita got awarded it this week, despite having the highest risk rating. I'm probably best off out if it.
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 441

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:



    No idea about that I wouldn't be surprised if it's outsourced.

    All MoD fire and rescue services were outsourced to Capita by Michael Fallon.
    Crapita!?!? So who is running them now? And what sort of state are they in?
    Capita. They aren't in great shape. Their latest accounts show a balance sheet value of minus £930M. Their loss in FY17 was double their loss in FY16.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    DavidL said:

    Good government borrowing figures:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/may2018#revisions-since-previous-release

    2017/18 was now £39.5bn compared with the £45.2bn predicted by the OBR in March.

    After two months 2018/19 is £4.2bn lower than after two months of 2017/18 - which is again better than the OBR forecast.

    I think Hammond has been given his extra NHS money - I'm not sure he'll be that pleased.

    So the OBR was £5.7bn out in their forecasts of the deficit one month before the end of the financial year? That's comfortably more than a 10% error. I'd really like to think that someone might be facing the sack for that level of incompetence.

    I also find it remarkable that an economy that was, according to official figures, barely growing managed to increase employment by over 400k and reduce the deficit by £6.2bn. The latter number is even more remarkable when you consider that public spending rose at a fairly fast rate.
    I think the ability to record economic activity is difficult, and it just doesn't make sense that at a time of a large increase in the overall number of employed people that there is a flat level of growth. However in the industry I work there are certainly the official books that people have and would share, but also other unrecorded income.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Delayed from yesterday here is Wednesday's Tesco Strawberry score:

    Fife
    Perthshire
    Nottinghamshire
    Staffordshire
    Cambridgeshire
    Norfolk
    Herefordshire
    Surrey
    Kent

    The nine being an increase in one from Tuesday with the only change being the addition of Norfolk.

    Do you ever actually buy any of these strawberries or merely just paw at the packaging each day?
    It is one of the dullest memes ever on PB, among a particularly rum selection of utterly boring crap.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    TGOHF said:

    DavidL said:

    Good government borrowing figures:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/may2018#revisions-since-previous-release

    2017/18 was now £39.5bn compared with the £45.2bn predicted by the OBR in March.

    After two months 2018/19 is £4.2bn lower than after two months of 2017/18 - which is again better than the OBR forecast.

    I think Hammond has been given his extra NHS money - I'm not sure he'll be that pleased.

    So the OBR was £5.7bn out in their forecasts of the deficit one month before the end of the financial year? That's comfortably more than a 10% error. I'd really like to think that someone might be facing the sack for that level of incompetence.

    I also find it remarkable that an economy that was, according to official figures, barely growing managed to increase employment by over 400k and reduce the deficit by £6.2bn. The latter number is even more remarkable when you consider that public spending rose at a fairly fast rate.
    The economy is doing well and the deficit is nearly gone #despiteHammond
    I wouldn't say that a deficit of £39.5bn is "nearly gone". It remains worrying that we are borrowing at all this late in the economic cycle, let alone at that rate. What I think is clear is that the arguments that gave rise to 8 years of austerity are losing their force and a weak government will find it harder to resist increases in public sector pay, for example. Still, it does look as if finding the additional money for health is going to be less painful than feared.

    As for Hammond, I think he has been a steady, if rather dull, hand on the tiller. If the OBR had been more accurate he may have found the pressure for a significant boost to housing, for example, harder to resist which would have significantly improved the chances of this government being re-elected. But I am not sure he would have taken it anyway.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    TOPPING said:

    The point is the MoD needs to be much more flexible in drawing upon the skills of the civilian population, which would be much better value for the taxpayer both in direct terms and in the cost and administrative efficiency of the armed forces themselves. At the moment the MoD is struggling to fill these positions, and take advantage of these skills, and this is a large part of the reason why.

    I don’t think there’s anything I can say or do to influence conclusions you’ve already reached about me, which I suspect is largely goading for your entertainment, driven by our political differences, but I don’t make stuff like this up.

    Others can decide what they think themselves.

    The point is, like I'm sure many people who are doing well in their job, you want to "give something back" to the nation and, looking around at potential options, you thought: the army - they can use my skills.

    You then say how the MoD needs to be much more flexible in asking @Casino_Royale to help them in their hour of need but unaccountably you haven't received the phone call.

    But it is all bollocks. You don't have the commitment to do anything for HMF apart from repeating to yourself when you're in front of a mirror or on an internet chatroom what an asset you would be to them, and thereby feeling like you're "doing your bit".

    Nothing to do with your political views. Which are what, by the way?
    You have questioned my integrity this morning and basically called me a liar. You have now resorted to swearing.

    This discussion is over.
    Why this preoccupation with toy soldiers? If you are a good project manager in construction you "could give something back" by building a school in a deprived area.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,755
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    Technically the only fighting we would ever now be doing on our own is to defend the Falklands or Gibraltar

    Fck me, that escalated quickly.
    Presumably in that scenario the EU (-1) would unequivocally back Spain.

    HYUFD is wrong. Our military will be fully engaged in trying to restore order after UDI in Northern Ireland.

    We won’t have the resources to fight in either Gibraltar or The Malvinas.
    Hmm.
    Bloody Mon-Sat then.
    This is the time for the SNP to declare UDI, all 35 constituencies will be loyal to the SNP.

    Honestly if you can’t defeat Gavin Williamson then you don’t deserve independence.
    Actually most of those 35 SNP seats voted No to independence from the UK in 2014 though I expect we could survive UDI by Yes voting Glasgow and Dundee
    Nope, they voted SNP, by your impeccable NI logic they are 100% bastions of independence.
    Nope as in NI all DUP seats would vote to stay in the UK too
    My preferred democratic vote trumps your democratic vote, 47th edition (yawn).
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Greg Hands resigns from Govt.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    Good government borrowing figures:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/may2018#revisions-since-previous-release

    2017/18 was now £39.5bn compared with the £45.2bn predicted by the OBR in March.

    After two months 2018/19 is £4.2bn lower than after two months of 2017/18 - which is again better than the OBR forecast.

    I think Hammond has been given his extra NHS money - I'm not sure he'll be that pleased.

    So the OBR was £5.7bn out in their forecasts of the deficit one month before the end of the financial year? That's comfortably more than a 10% error. I'd really like to think that someone might be facing the sack for that level of incompetence.

    I also find it remarkable that an economy that was, according to official figures, barely growing managed to increase employment by over 400k and reduce the deficit by £6.2bn. The latter number is even more remarkable when you consider that public spending rose at a fairly fast rate.
    I think the ability to record economic activity is difficult, and it just doesn't make sense that at a time of a large increase in the overall number of employed people that there is a flat level of growth. However in the industry I work there are certainly the official books that people have and would share, but also other unrecorded income.
    I think that has always been the case but the fact that so much economic activity takes place online now must make it even harder to get accurate measurements, as must the increasing casualisation of the workforce through the gig economy. It's frustrating when these errors lead to bad economic decisions though.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    Greg Hands resigns over Heathrow.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    Well done Greg Hands. Or, as I believe the young people say, "props".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:



    No idea about that I wouldn't be surprised if it's outsourced.

    All MoD fire and rescue services were outsourced to Capita by Michael Fallon.
    Crapita!?!? So who is running them now? And what sort of state are they in?
    Capita. They aren't in great shape. Their latest accounts show a balance sheet value of minus £930M. Their loss in FY17 was double their loss in FY16.
    Yes but they've had a succesful rights issue and were a great buy at the right price. I've exited now but my small stake did better than any of my political bets this year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited June 2018
    Radio daily mirror had Laura piddock on about the government not allowing nod through a yesterday. She kind of blew up her own argument when she said she insists on voting, had done so the day before (I believe in an early day motion) and doesn’t do pairing. The only other thing she would consider is a change in the rules to allow proxy voting, but the sexist tories, the tories, the tories, turned it off.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    An honourable resignation: I'm sure the Minister for International Trade could have rustled up an overseas engagement if he'd felt it necessary.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Was Hands in the cabinet ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    So far as ministerial resignations go, this ranks about 0/10 in terms of implied Gov't difficulties going forward.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2018

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Anazina said:

    TOPPING said:

    The point is the MoD needs to be much more flexible in drawing upon the skills of the civilian population, which would be much better value for the taxpayer both in direct terms and in the cost and administrative efficiency of the armed forces themselves. At the moment the MoD is struggling to fill these positions, and take advantage of these skills, and this is a large part of the reason why.

    I don’t think there’s anything I can say or do to influence conclusions you’ve already reached about me, which I suspect is largely goading for your entertainment, driven by our political differences, but I don’t make stuff like this up.

    Others can decide what they think themselves.

    The point is, like I'm sure many people who are doing well in their job, you want to "give something back" to the nation and, looking around at potential options, you thought: the army - they can use my skills.

    You then say how the MoD needs to be much more flexible in asking @Casino_Royale to help them in their hour of need but unaccountably you haven't received the phone call.

    But it is all bollocks. You don't have the commitment to do anything for HMF apart from repeating to yourself when you're in front of a mirror or on an internet chatroom what an asset you would be to them, and thereby feeling like you're "doing your bit".

    Nothing to do with your political views. Which are what, by the way?
    You have questioned my integrity this morning and basically called me a liar. You have now resorted to swearing.

    This discussion is over.
    Why this preoccupation with toy soldiers? If you are a good project manager in construction you "could give something back" by building a school in a deprived area.
    Don't be a numpty talking about something you clearly don't understand. A project manager normally acts for a client as part of a project team of specialists i.e. Architect, quantity surveyor, building surveyors and works alongside management from a construction company. Even if he wanted to help in the way suggest he would need to have professional insurances which unless he is self employed he would not have.

    The world would be a much better place if all of us took time to be a little bit kinder to those around us. You don't need to get involved in some grand scheme or plan. Plenty of kids need a mentor, plenty of old people need a visitor, plenty of differently able people need a helping hand to live alongside their community.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    So is BoJo going to follow Hands' example?

    I don't think we should hold our breaths.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    May should try and pair off Boris for a laugh
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    So is BoJo going to follow Hands' example?

    I don't think we should hold our breaths.

    Monday is probably the day Boris' leadership ambitions die for good.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    Really? You think this is new? Could you give a sample of films back in the day that "simply tell a story"?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2018
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    Really? You think this is new? Could you give a sample of films back in the day that "simply tell a story"?
    The first three Star Wars films.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    Was Hands in the cabinet ?

    No, your bets are still running.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Hands in the cabinet ?

    No, your bets are still running.
    I'm on McVey this time round, though I think it'll be Grayling. I refuse to bet at short odds on this market though.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    Hands is one of Osborne’s best buddies and was Chief Secretary (though not technically in the Cabinet but almost there) but was conspicuously demoted by Mrs May. Wonder if that was a factor in the background. He’s also a fluent German speaker...just thought I’d add that.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    You can have both. High Noon is pretty moralistic, and Aliens is a feminist and anti capitalist tract with a bit of anti racism thrown in.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    I like Greg Hands.

    He's resigned in a manner that reflects well on him and makes a return to ministerial office at the next reshuffle easier.

    The fact he's made Boris look like a massive Johnson is pure coincidence on the part of Greg.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    So is BoJo going to follow Hands' example?

    I don't think we should hold our breaths.

    True , but will he lie down in front of the bulldozers ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    3 billboards outside Ebbing was a great film with a story this year
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    Probably the strangest moral message in a movie is The Lion King, which essentially boils down to "know your place"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    So May has the SNP voting for her on Heathrow but Hands and co voting against?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    I like Greg Hands.

    He's resigned in a manner that reflects well on him and makes a return to ministerial office at the next reshuffle easier.

    The fact he's made Boris look like a massive Johnson is pure coincidence on the part of Greg.

    If Boris was a man of principle he'd resign too. If he believed in collective responsibility, he'd vote.
    Abstaining as a Gov't minister just makes him look like a shitbag quite honestly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589
    Pulpstar said:

    I like Greg Hands.

    He's resigned in a manner that reflects well on him and makes a return to ministerial office at the next reshuffle easier.

    The fact he's made Boris look like a massive Johnson is pure coincidence on the part of Greg.

    If Boris was a man of principle he'd resign too. If he believed in collective responsibility, he'd vote.
    Abstaining as a Gov't minister just makes him look like a shitbag quite honestly.
    Look like ... ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I like Greg Hands.

    He's resigned in a manner that reflects well on him and makes a return to ministerial office at the next reshuffle easier.

    The fact he's made Boris look like a massive Johnson is pure coincidence on the part of Greg.

    If Boris was a man of principle he'd resign too. If he believed in collective responsibility, he'd vote.
    Abstaining as a Gov't minister just makes him look like a shitbag the shitbag he is quite honestly.
    Look like ... ?
    Corrected ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    Probably the strangest moral message in a movie is The Lion King, which essentially boils down to "know your place"
    Dunno - I think Black Panther's 'let's appoint a head of state on the basis of ritual combat' is pretty good, too.

    Jeremy Irons intoning "Life's just not fair, is it ?" at the start of Lion King is a pretty sound moral message, if you ask me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Stereotomy, not that strange. There's a strong tradition/cliche in fantasy of the farmhand's son being fantastic and then learning he's the King's real son.

    It's somewhat ironic given there was more social mobility in the medieval era than is often assumed (cf William Marshal, Thomas Becket, John Hawkwood, Lanfranc). Not to say it was a full-blown meritocracy, of course.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589
    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    Really? You think this is new? Could you give a sample of films back in the day that "simply tell a story"?
    The first three Star Wars films.
    Dynastic succession and the acceptability of incest ?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    MaxPB said:

    The PSF figures don't make any kind of sense. There is nominal tax growth of around 4.5% YoY, inflation is running at 2.6%. The growth in government tax receipts is not consistent with stated GDP growth, especially given the lack of tax rises (and in some cases falling tax rates).

    There is a disconnect, the deficit can't be falling as rapidly as it is if the economy saw just 1.2% YoY growth.

    It is also somewhat odd that IT receipts rose that sharply when we were told that earnings were below inflation for most of the year and falling in real terms. It suggests those that are self employed (an ever expanding part of the workforce of course) are doing somewhat better. Which is again surprising if the GDP figure is right.
    Improvements in Self-Assessment tax payable will take some time to feed through to public finances, so perhaps reflective of stronger growth some time in the past?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    The Kiwis don't seem convinced Brexit will happen.
    https://twitter.com/MFATgovtNZ/status/1009596567307685889
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    BOJO man of principle?


    His principal aim is to be PM
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    MaxPB said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The Rian Johnson trilogy is said to be on the chopping block as well.
    That's crazy - rogue one and the last Jedi made buckets of money, around a billion more than Solo. A little premature to jump to assuming there's no apetite for 1 star wars move per year. Marvel have shown there's appetite for 3 marvel movies per year, star wars can manage 1. They just need to be good
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Mr. Stereotomy, not that strange. There's a strong tradition/cliche in fantasy of the farmhand's son being fantastic and then learning he's the King's real son.

    It's somewhat ironic given there was more social mobility in the medieval era than is often assumed (cf William Marshal, Thomas Becket, John Hawkwood, Lanfranc). Not to say it was a full-blown meritocracy, of course.

    There's for sure a strong tradition of it, but it seems out of place in a modern Disney movie. It's not just that the protagonist is a prince, which isn't unusual, but that the movie is very explicitly making a moral statement. The Circle of Life and "Remember who you are" being the clearest examples of that.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    Really? You think this is new? Could you give a sample of films back in the day that "simply tell a story"?
    The first three Star Wars films.
    Yes, as long as we ignore the hippy, anti-technology/authority messaging throughout then you are right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    Really? You think this is new? Could you give a sample of films back in the day that "simply tell a story"?
    I think one might draw some moral from even the earliest efforts...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNLZntSdyKE


    And then there came Birth of a Nation....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. kle4, indeed, but the reaction to the apparent SJW approach of the bigwigs has not been positive.

    On a similar note, Kingdom Come Deliverance showed how much success can be achieved by sticking to a vision (in their case, substantial realism) and ignoring the plaintive shrieks of people who wouldn't buy the game anyway (apparently 1403 Bohemia wasn't a hotbed of sexual equality and racial diversity. Gasp!).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Mr. Topping, trolling? Otherwise that analogy is utterly flawed.

    Nobody thinks Star Wars is real. That doesn't mean people enjoy the rules of the universe being changed, or characters being rewritten. Internal consistency and plot coherence matter, as does not taking fans for granted.

    I'm not clear how Last Jedi changed the rules of the universe. Some of the stuff I've seen alleging this is ridiculous. We've always known spaceships in Star Wars needed fuel so the idea they might run out of fuel is not that surprising. Similarly some of the stuff I've seen complaining about Leia's excursion into space makes statements about what would happen in real life that are just plain wrong.

    Yes, the film added a couple of additional things that those powerful in the Force can do with it but that's been going on forever. And, given that the dead can use the Force to appear to the living, the additional things didn't seem particularly out of line to me.

    Yes, Luke has changed but he is much older. Most of us change over time.

    It does, of course, get the physics of space travel wrong in the same way as most SF films - sound in space, spacecraft needing to burn fuel to keep going at the same speed, etc. But those things crop up so often in SF that I've learnt to ignore them.
    Totally agree. Each to their own, but some of the complaints around consistency etc don't even stack up, well, consistently. And complaints on tone and so make no sense, having rewatched force awakens.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    Hungary have passed their anti-Soros law. I expect Italy and Austria to adopt similar measure wrt to charities enabling people trafficking. Spain have opened themselves up to a massive new migrant route, the minority coalition may fall over the issue and with a new leader PP may make a comeback sooner rather than later.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Stereotomy, that could also be read as a reminder of the responsibility of leadership.

    And it is possible to read too much into things. The lion was just called the king because they have manes. Tigers are actually bigger.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589
    edited June 2018

    Mr. Stereotomy, that could also be read as a reminder of the responsibility of leadership.

    And it is possible to read too much into things. The lion was just called the king because they have manes. Tigers are actually bigger.

    Though strangely scare in the Serengeti...

    And besides which, have no social structure to speak of.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    BOJO man of principle?


    His principal aim is to be PM

    Bojo reminds me of nobody more than J Alfred Prufrock. Desperately longing to become PM but too afraid to force the matter to its conclusion
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    That is so not some thing unique to films today. I'm to believe there were not movies doing that since movies began? Some movies were always like that.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B, whilst I'm rambling on such things, Shere Khan was named after the Afghan prince Sher Khan Sur, who chased the second (and rubbish) 'Great' Moghal Emperor Humayun out of India.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited June 2018

    The Kiwis don't seem convinced Brexit will happen.
    https://twitter.com/MFATgovtNZ/status/1009596567307685889

    Current New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters (currently PM while Ardern is on maternity leave) met Boris Johnson only recently and has been pushing a trade deal with the UK as 'an absolute priority' post Brexit



    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663367
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589

    BOJO man of principle?


    His principal aim is to be PM

    Bojo reminds me of nobody more than J Alfred Prufrock. Desperately longing to become PM but too afraid to force the matter to its conclusion
    Measured out his life with Latin tags and random shags, rather than coffee spoons...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,547
    MaxPB said:

    Hungary have passed their anti-Soros law. I expect Italy and Austria to adopt similar measure wrt to charities enabling people trafficking. Spain have opened themselves up to a massive new migrant route, the minority coalition may fall over the issue and with a new leader PP may make a comeback sooner rather than later.

    "charities enabling people trafficking."

    Yeah, right.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    That is so not some thing unique to films today. I'm to believe there were not movies doing that since movies began? Some movies were always like that.

    Procedural/spectacle first message-lite films only really started in the 80's (probably heralded by Star Wars and Speilbergian efforts).

    But they are, fundamentally a minorty in the history of film making, pretty much a 20 year blip and even the original star wars is riddled with 'message'.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    That is so not some thing unique to films today. I'm to believe there were not movies doing that since movies began? Some movies were always like that.

    Procedural/spectacle first message-lite films only really started in the 80's (probably heralded by Star Wars and Speilbergian efforts).

    But they are, fundamentally a minorty in the history of film making, pretty much a 20 year blip and even the original star wars is riddled with 'message'.
    "Who is more foolish? The Fool or the Fool wot follows it?"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589
    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    That is so not some thing unique to films today. I'm to believe there were not movies doing that since movies began? Some movies were always like that.

    Procedural/spectacle first message-lite films only really started in the 80's (probably heralded by Star Wars and Speilbergian efforts).

    But they are, fundamentally a minorty in the history of film making, pretty much a 20 year blip and even the original star wars is riddled with 'message'.
    Really ?
    I must have missed the deep social message in all that Astaire and Rogers stuff...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Hungary have passed their anti-Soros law. I expect Italy and Austria to adopt similar measure wrt to charities enabling people trafficking. Spain have opened themselves up to a massive new migrant route, the minority coalition may fall over the issue and with a new leader PP may make a comeback sooner rather than later.

    The PP have overtaken the liberal Citizens in most Spanish polls as the main challenger to the PSOE as the new Spanish government opens its doors to North African migrants just as in Italy the new government is shutting the doors on migrants there
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    If it wasn't for the deep ahistoricity of PB (as I frequently say, "PB has no memory"), the lack of knowledge about film here would have surprised me.

    Film has been used for metaphor and propaganda since the very beginning. When was "Birth of a Nation" for pity's sake, the 1910s or 20s? It's effectively a Klan recruitment ad. "Battleship Potemkin", "In the Heat of the Night", "Kramer vs Kramer", "The Deerhunter", "Mrs Miniver", "A Matter of Life or Death", "Colonel Blimp" (short title, can't remember), "The Green Berets" "All Quiet on the Western Front", "Coming Home", "Gallipoli", "9 to 5", " all have an overt point and there's nothing there after 1981.

    Aaaargh!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    DavidL said:

    Good government borrowing figures:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/may2018#revisions-since-previous-release

    2017/18 was now £39.5bn compared with the £45.2bn predicted by the OBR in March.

    After two months 2018/19 is £4.2bn lower than after two months of 2017/18 - which is again better than the OBR forecast.

    I think Hammond has been given his extra NHS money - I'm not sure he'll be that pleased.

    So the OBR was £5.7bn out in their forecasts of the deficit one month before the end of the financial year? That's comfortably more than a 10% error. I'd really like to think that someone might be facing the sack for that level of incompetence.

    I also find it remarkable that an economy that was, according to official figures, barely growing managed to increase employment by over 400k and reduce the deficit by £6.2bn. The latter number is even more remarkable when you consider that public spending rose at a fairly fast rate.
    Ito be fair to the OBR, it might be 10% of the deficit but it is 0.1% of the underlying income and expenditure figures
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I think Miracle on 34th Street sells the consumerist message of christmas well.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    That is so not some thing unique to films today. I'm to believe there were not movies doing that since movies began? Some movies were always like that.

    Procedural/spectacle first message-lite films only really started in the 80's (probably heralded by Star Wars and Speilbergian efforts).

    But they are, fundamentally a minorty in the history of film making, pretty much a 20 year blip and even the original star wars is riddled with 'message'.
    Really ?
    I must have missed the deep social message in all that Astaire and Rogers stuff...
    Deeply feminist.

    GInger can do everything Fred can do. But backwards. And in heels!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    edited June 2018
    Another interesting dynamic developing in Italy is that it really looks like Lega will have the whip hand within their coalition. If it were to break and there was another election the right wing coalition LN/FI/FdI would coast to a 20 point victory and probably a majority coalition with Salvini as PM.

    Even if the more liberal M5S leadership disagree with Salvini on migrants or whatever, they don't have much room to manoeuvre.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    DavidL said:

    Good government borrowing figures:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/may2018#revisions-since-previous-release

    2017/18 was now £39.5bn compared with the £45.2bn predicted by the OBR in March.

    After two months 2018/19 is £4.2bn lower than after two months of 2017/18 - which is again better than the OBR forecast.

    I think Hammond has been given his extra NHS money - I'm not sure he'll be that pleased.

    So the OBR was £5.7bn out in their forecasts of the deficit one month before the end of the financial year? That's comfortably more than a 10% error. I'd really like to think that someone might be facing the sack for that level of incompetence.

    I also find it remarkable that an economy that was, according to official figures, barely growing managed to increase employment by over 400k and reduce the deficit by £6.2bn. The latter number is even more remarkable when you consider that public spending rose at a fairly fast rate.
    Ito be fair to the OBR, it might be 10% of the deficit but it is 0.1% of the underlying income and expenditure figures
    No, it was an in-year prediction that went against the City consensus of £38-39bn at the time. Even at the time I remember noting that they were going to be out by a fairly large figure on an in-year projection. If the City consensus could get it right without access to private government data, then how did the OBR mess it up?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    MaxPB said:

    Another interesting dynamic developing in Italy is that it really looks like Lega will have the whip hand within their coalition. If it were to break and there was another election the right wing coalition LN/FI/FdI would coast to a 20 point victory and probably a majority coalition with Salvini as PM.

    Even if the more liberal M5S leadership disagree with Salvini on migrants or whatever, they don't have much room to manoeuvre.

    Salvini will be Italy's next PM I think, though judging by how the previous market went laying Di Maio would probably be a better way to play the market if the polls are as is next time round.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    That is so not some thing unique to films today. I'm to believe there were not movies doing that since movies began? Some movies were always like that.

    Procedural/spectacle first message-lite films only really started in the 80's (probably heralded by Star Wars and Speilbergian efforts).

    But they are, fundamentally a minorty in the history of film making, pretty much a 20 year blip and even the original star wars is riddled with 'message'.
    Really ?
    I must have missed the deep social message in all that Astaire and Rogers stuff...
    Deeply feminist.

    GInger can do everything Fred can do. But backwards. And in heels!
    Except negotiate pay and publicity.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Good government borrowing figures:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/may2018#revisions-since-previous-release

    2017/18 was now £39.5bn compared with the £45.2bn predicted by the OBR in March.

    After two months 2018/19 is £4.2bn lower than after two months of 2017/18 - which is again better than the OBR forecast.

    I think Hammond has been given his extra NHS money - I'm not sure he'll be that pleased.

    So the OBR was £5.7bn out in their forecasts of the deficit one month before the end of the financial year? That's comfortably more than a 10% error. I'd really like to think that someone might be facing the sack for that level of incompetence.

    I also find it remarkable that an economy that was, according to official figures, barely growing managed to increase employment by over 400k and reduce the deficit by £6.2bn. The latter number is even more remarkable when you consider that public spending rose at a fairly fast rate.
    Ito be fair to the OBR, it might be 10% of the deficit but it is 0.1% of the underlying income and expenditure figures
    No, it was an in-year prediction that went against the City consensus of £38-39bn at the time. Even at the time I remember noting that they were going to be out by a fairly large figure on an in-year projection. If the City consensus could get it right without access to private government data, then how did the OBR mess it up?
    Oh, I don't disagree. As you may recall at the time of the OBR forecast I was so sure they were wrong I unilaterally offered a £100 donation to charity if they were right.

    They messed up. It just calling it "10%" that is misleading
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    Mr. Topping, trolling? Otherwise that analogy is utterly flawed.

    Nobody thinks Star Wars is real. That doesn't mean people enjoy the rules of the universe being changed, or characters being rewritten. Internal consistency and plot coherence matter, as does not taking fans for granted.

    I'm not clear how Last Jedi changed the rules of the universe. Some of the stuff I've seen alleging this is ridiculous. We've always known spaceships in Star Wars needed fuel so the idea they might run out of fuel is not that surprising. Similarly some of the stuff I've seen complaining about Leia's excursion into space makes statements about what would happen in real life that are just plain wrong.

    Yes, the film added a couple of additional things that those powerful in the Force can do with it but that's been going on forever. And, given that the dead can use the Force to appear to the living, the additional things didn't seem particularly out of line to me.

    Yes, Luke has changed but he is much older. Most of us change over time.

    It does, of course, get the physics of space travel wrong in the same way as most SF films - sound in space, spacecraft needing to burn fuel to keep going at the same speed, etc. But those things crop up so often in SF that I've learnt to ignore them.
    There was also the use of things like dropping bombs and plasma bolts arcing downwards that made one suspect they didn't understand how gravity works offplanet. Plus the whole use-hyperspeed-as-a-weapon thing is very difficult to fit into the previous films. You can patch it over (and many have) but it made suspension of belief difficult.

    Plus the casino sidequest was weird.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    Another interesting dynamic developing in Italy is that it really looks like Lega will have the whip hand within their coalition. If it were to break and there was another election the right wing coalition LN/FI/FdI would coast to a 20 point victory and probably a majority coalition with Salvini as PM.

    Even if the more liberal M5S leadership disagree with Salvini on migrants or whatever, they don't have much room to manoeuvre.

    Latest poll has Lega Nord on 28.3%, M5* on 28%, PD on 16.8% and FI on 12.4%.

    On the Coalition vote it is Centre right 45.2%, MFS 28% and Centre left 19.5%

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    HYUFD said:

    The Kiwis don't seem convinced Brexit will happen.
    https://twitter.com/MFATgovtNZ/status/1009596567307685889

    Current New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters (currently PM while Ardern is on maternity leave) met Boris Johnson only recently and has been pushing a trade deal with the UK as 'an absolute priority' post Brexit



    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663367
    So what? 0.2% of our foreign trade is with New Zealand.

    Given that, anyone would think it's on the other side of the world.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.

    The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.
    That is so not some thing unique to films today. I'm to believe there were not movies doing that since movies began? Some movies were always like that.

    Procedural/spectacle first message-lite films only really started in the 80's (probably heralded by Star Wars and Speilbergian efforts).

    But they are, fundamentally a minorty in the history of film making, pretty much a 20 year blip and even the original star wars is riddled with 'message'.
    Really ?
    I must have missed the deep social message in all that Astaire and Rogers stuff...
    You did. Pure Depression-era escapism.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Obviously a slow news day if pbers are arguing about verisimilitude and internal consistency in a children's film series.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    BOJO man of principle?


    His principal aim is to be PM

    Bojo reminds me of nobody more than J Alfred Prufrock. Desperately longing to become PM but too afraid to force the matter to its conclusion
    Spot on. The problem for him now is that the next time an opportunity comes along, it will almost certainly be because someone else has forced the matter.

    That said, if Boris *had* resigned over LHR3, then whether or not it was done on principle, it would undoubtedly be viewed by the media commentariat through the lenses of his leadership ambitions and Brexit.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    MaxPB said:

    Hungary have passed their anti-Soros law. I expect Italy and Austria to adopt similar measure wrt to charities enabling people trafficking. Spain have opened themselves up to a massive new migrant route, the minority coalition may fall over the issue and with a new leader PP may make a comeback sooner rather than later.

    "charities enabling people trafficking."

    Yeah, right.
    We really do need to shut down the Samaritans while we are at it. Clearly they are encouraging all those suicides.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    HYUFD said:

    The Kiwis don't seem convinced Brexit will happen.
    https://twitter.com/MFATgovtNZ/status/1009596567307685889

    Current New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters (currently PM while Ardern is on maternity leave) met Boris Johnson only recently and has been pushing a trade deal with the UK as 'an absolute priority' post Brexit



    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11663367
    So what? 0.2% of our foreign trade is with New Zealand.

    Given that, anyone would think it's on the other side of the world.
    0.2% is still better than 0% and it is a start for Fox and Bojo
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited June 2018
    https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1009772546621886465?s=20

    “26 member states”? Surely there are currently 28?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237
    MaxPB said:

    how did the OBR mess it up?

    They employ economists, not statisticians.

    (sorry, old hobby-horse)

This discussion has been closed.