politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key r

System · June 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key races at the November midterms

For nearly a year the betting markets have made a Democratic party House win in November’s midterm the favourite. These, of course, are the key elections that come up half way through a presidential term when the whole of the House is up for election as well as about a third of the Senate. The Democrats margin has narrowed very sharply on Betfair but the blues are still just ahead. From the betting perspective this is viewed as being very tight.

Read the full story here

tlg86 · June 2018

No.

FrancisUrquhart · June 2018

Just for Topping....what do we think the Aussies will get here in the ODI? ;-)

rottenborough · June 2018

Bloomberg gonna run for POTUS?

FrancisUrquhart · June 2018

rottenborough said:
Bloomberg gonna run for POTUS?

Running on a platform of banning the big gulp nationwide?

FrancisUrquhart · June 2018

“He stood up, he put his hand in his pocket and he took two Starburst candies out, threw them on the table and said: ‘here, Angela, don’t say I never give you anything.’”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-angela-merkel-starburst-g7-summit-relationship-us-germany-tariffs-eu-a8409201.html?amp

Nigelb · June 2018

I think stuff like this is perhaps of more relevance (though Schmidt has been on the brink for some time):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/today-i-renounce-my-membership-longtime-gop-strategist-steve-schmidt-announces-hes-leaving-his-party/2018/06/20/5918d7ee-747d-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html
“29 years and nine months ago I registered to vote and became a member of The Republican Party which was founded in 1854 to oppose slavery and stand for the dignity of human life,” Schmidt wrote. “Today I renounce my membership in the Republican Party. It is fully the party of Trump.”

Tipping swing voters will likely win the House for the Democrats; if they can peel off a few Republicans, it's just about conceivable that the Senate could be in play.

Trump can weather a Democrat House; a Democrat Senate would present him with considerably greater problems (for an example, no more free appointments to the federal judiciary).

rcs1000 · June 2018

AndyJS said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Solo has been such a disaster that all other Star Wars spin off films have been put on an indefinite hold.
The problem with a lot of films today is that you feel like you're being lectured to from a particular point of view, whereas they used to simply tell a story. The first one in that category was Avatar which was like an anti-Bush lecture.

Avatar? Wasn't that the documentary about Shell in Nigeria?

williamglenn · June 2018

In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696

Alistair · June 2018

williamglenn said:
In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696

I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.

RobD · June 2018

williamglenn said:
In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696

Red Tories? Who knew the Blairites were so numerous.

Casino_Royale · June 2018

Alistair said:

williamglenn said:
In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696
I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.

The Con Remainers who switched were sold a pup.

DavidL · June 2018

Alistair said:

williamglenn said:
In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696
I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.

Interesting question. The independence mindset never seemed particularly compatible with membership of the EU to me, even although the SNP wanted to appear a more mainstream social democrat party. I think it may well have been a significant issue in the north east in particular.

Anazina · June 2018

tlg86 said:
No.

Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.

Nigelb · June 2018

Anazina said:

tlg86 said:
No.
Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.

Killjoy.

tlg86 · June 2018

Anazina said:

tlg86 said:
No.
Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.

I nearly went for QTWTAIN.

williamglenn · June 2018

Casino_Royale said:

Alistair said:

williamglenn said:
In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696
I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.
The Con Remainers who switched were sold a pup.

You mean an 'absolute' pup?

Alistair · June 2018

Also, the big takeaway for me is for people who voted in 05, 10, 15 and 17 only 40% stuck with 1 party.

Pulpstar · June 2018

Why would the Democrats want to "turn the tide" ?

If the tide turns it'll be the GOP winning the house.

Benpointer · June 2018

O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

MaxPB · June 2018

Casino_Royale said:

Alistair said:

williamglenn said:
In the 2017 election there were more switchers between the Conservatives and Labour than at any other election, including 1997 and 1970.
https://twitter.com/chris__curtis/status/1009802836291485696
I wonder what percentage of SNP leave voter went Tory in 2017.
The Con Remainers who switched were sold a pup.

They deserve nothing less. Now their great leader has abandoned them as well. They are probably hoping for Vince Cable to come to their rescue now.

FrancisUrquhart · June 2018

Anazina said:

tlg86 said:
No.
Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.

Somebody got out of bed the wrong side this morning...

DavidL · June 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

tlg86 said:
No.
Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
Somebody got out of bed the wrong side this morning...

Just don't mention the strawberries....

AndyJS · June 2018

"@britainelects
2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 40% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

via @YouGov, 18 - 19 Jun"

FrancisUrquhart · June 2018

DavidL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

tlg86 said:
No.
Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
Somebody got out of bed the wrong side this morning...
Just don't mention the strawberries....

Had some lovely ones from Waitrose yesterday....I believe they were from a bloke called harry in Herefordshire.

Anazina · June 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anazina said:

tlg86 said:
No.
Brilliant. Anyone who rolls over the absolutely dismal 'First' shite gets a treble gold star.
Somebody got out of bed the wrong side this morning...

There are no right sides on my bed.

surby · June 2018

AndyJS said:
"@britainelects
2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 40% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

via @YouGov, 18 - 19 Jun"

Progressives 51%, Retrogressives 45%

Morris_Dancer · June 2018

Mr. Surby, 'progressive' is a daft term. It's just a grown-up attempt to ape the infantile 'goodies' and 'baddies' language.

Good afternoon, my fellow progressive anthropophiliac pro-mankind optimists overflowing with goodly niceness.

surby · June 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Surby, 'progressive' is a daft term. It's just a grown-up attempt to ape the infantile 'goodies' and 'baddies' language.

Good afternoon, my fellow progressive anthropophiliac pro-mankind optimists overflowing with goodly niceness.

Good enough for me.

Philip_Thompson · June 2018

surby said:

AndyJS said:
"@britainelects
2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 40% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

via @YouGov, 18 - 19 Jun"
Progressives 51%, Retrogressives 45%

Progressives = the last Coalition Parties.

Retrogressives = Labour (send us back to the 70s), UKIP (50s) and Greens (16th century).

david_herdson · June 2018

On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.

williamglenn · June 2018

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

FrancisUrquhart · June 2018

England better have bought their batting boots again today, as they are going to need buckets loads to win.

Morris_Dancer · June 2018

Mr. Surby, the wrapping up of morality in politics is delinquent tomfoolery.

If one assumes that difference of political preference is not a matter of judgement or personal taste but a question of morality then it logically follows on from that that one's own side is good. However, that necessarily means that deviation from that 'good' perspective is indicative of wickedness.

But that flies in the face of the essential principle of democratic freedom, namely that it's entirely legitimate for intelligent people to hear the same arguments, see the same evidence, and yet reach differing conclusions as to the best way forward.

And such people then cling to their self-ordained righteousness even when they celebrate the death of an OAP. It's zealous idiocy.

People can differ without being evil or stupid.

TGOHF · June 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Surby, 'progressive' is a daft term. It's just a grown-up attempt to ape the infantile 'goodies' and 'baddies' language.

Good afternoon, my fellow progressive anthropophiliac pro-mankind optimists overflowing with goodly niceness.

Given Mr Corbyn's party wants to ban automatic checkout machines then perhaps progressive isn't accurate at all.

Benpointer · June 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

surby said:

AndyJS said:
"@britainelects
2m2 minutes ago

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 40% (+1)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 3% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)

via @YouGov, 18 - 19 Jun"
Progressives 51%, Retrogressives 45%
Progressives = the last Coalition Parties.

Retrogressives = Labour (send us back to the 70s), UKIP (50s) and Greens (16th century).

Been brushing up on your Newspeak blackwhite?

SandyRentool · June 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

So how much of our territory are we planning on handing over to Russia?

Anazina · June 2018

Benpointer said:
O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.

DavidL · June 2018

david_herdson said:
On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.

It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.

TGOHF · June 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21

"The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

Sounds alright.

DavidL · June 2018

That's sure enough Overton for the time being? Bring back Rashid.

Benpointer · June 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:
England better have bought their batting boots again today, as they are going to need buckets loads to win.

Only 350 or thereabouts.

EDIT, I just changed that from 330 after the last over!

SandyRentool · June 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Surby, the wrapping up of morality in politics is delinquent tomfoolery.

If one assumes that difference of political preference is not a matter of judgement or personal taste but a question of morality then it logically follows on from that that one's own side is good. However, that necessarily means that deviation from that 'good' perspective is indicative of wickedness.

But that flies in the face of the essential principle of democratic freedom, namely that it's entirely legitimate for intelligent people to hear the same arguments, see the same evidence, and yet reach differing conclusions as to the best way forward.

And such people then cling to their self-ordained righteousness even when they celebrate the death of an OAP. It's zealous idiocy.

People can differ without being evil or stupid.

Selfish, greedy people vote for a party that promotes selfishness and greed.

That is their democratic right. Doesn't mean the rest of us can't look at them critically.

TGOHF · June 2018

DavidL said:
That's sure enough Overton for the time being? Bring back Rashid.

From cricinfo "Before Tuesday I would have said that Australia were going along at a reasonable clip. Now I really don't know." Game's changed, eh, David...

Fame at last..

Anazina · June 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:
England better have bought their batting boots again today, as they are going to need buckets loads to win.

Australia are awesome in dead rubbers!

Morris_Dancer · June 2018

Mr. Flashman (deceased), must admit to a certain Luddite sympathy with that particular policy.

Benpointer · June 2018

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:
On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.
It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.

Er... Arron Banks?

TOPPING · June 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:
Just for Topping....what do we think the Aussies will get here in the ODI? ;-)

Two sets to love?

Benpointer · June 2018

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Surby, the wrapping up of morality in politics is delinquent tomfoolery.

If one assumes that difference of political preference is not a matter of judgement or personal taste but a question of morality then it logically follows on from that that one's own side is good. However, that necessarily means that deviation from that 'good' perspective is indicative of wickedness.

But that flies in the face of the essential principle of democratic freedom, namely that it's entirely legitimate for intelligent people to hear the same arguments, see the same evidence, and yet reach differing conclusions as to the best way forward.

And such people then cling to their self-ordained righteousness even when they celebrate the death of an OAP. It's zealous idiocy.

People can differ without being evil or stupid.
Selfish, greedy people vote for a party that promotes selfishness and greed.

That is their democratic right. Doesn't mean the rest of us can't look at them critically.

Spot on!

DavidL · June 2018

Benpointer said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:
On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.
It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
Er... Arron Banks?

I thought about him but the only election he really influenced was what will prove to be the last UK election to the European Parliament. Other than that UKIP were killed by FPTP and he got very little for his money.

Benpointer · June 2018

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21
"The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

Sounds alright.

Let's hope Putin doesn't take it as a licence to annex Kent.

DavidL · June 2018

TGOHF said:

DavidL said:
That's sure enough Overton for the time being? Bring back Rashid.
From cricinfo "Before Tuesday I would have said that Australia were going along at a reasonable clip. Now I really don't know." Game's changed, eh, David...

Fame at last..

What, more fame than my 20,310 posts on here? Nah.

TGOHF · June 2018

Benpointer said:

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21
"The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

Sounds alright.

Let's hope Putin doesn't take it as a licence to annex Kent.

After Brexit, Kent will be full of queuing lorries and refugee camps* so that may be no bad thing.

* (c) Remain.

Scott_P · June 2018

https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/1009814614958370816

williamglenn · June 2018

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21
"The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

Sounds alright.

“Association agreements can vary in scope, though the ones with the closest levels of economic cooperation, such as Ukraine’s, are overseen by the European Court of Justice.”

Elliot · June 2018

Javid is going to kick out all the Romanaian street gangs:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44553225

david_herdson · June 2018

DavidL said:

Benpointer said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:
On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.
It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
Er... Arron Banks?
I thought about him but the only election he really influenced was what will prove to be the last UK election to the European Parliament. Other than that UKIP were killed by FPTP and he got very little for his money.

Apart from Brexit.

Benpointer · June 2018

DavidL said:

Benpointer said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:
On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.
It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
Er... Arron Banks?
I thought about him but the only election he really influenced was what will prove to be the last UK election to the European Parliament. Other than that UKIP were killed by FPTP and he got very little for his money.

True but of course recent elections don't count for anything compared to the EU-Ref (as we have seen this week). Banks' wealth (and that of others) undoubtedly did influence the referendum.

williamglenn · June 2018

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

AllyPally_Rob · June 2018

Anazina said:

Benpointer said:
O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.

Yes i called this on the weekend. Theoretically England may not have to face a 'tough' match until a potential semi final with Spain. If Germany don't get 3 points from the Sweden match, England are going to be much better off coming 2nd in the group.

Elliot · June 2018

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21
"The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

Sounds alright.

ECJ oversight is the kicker. Any agreement will need oversight from both sides, not a referee coming from one side.

DavidL · June 2018

Benpointer said:

DavidL said:

Benpointer said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:
On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.
It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
Er... Arron Banks?
I thought about him but the only election he really influenced was what will prove to be the last UK election to the European Parliament. Other than that UKIP were killed by FPTP and he got very little for his money.
True but of course recent elections don't count for anything compared to the EU-Ref (as we have seen this week). Banks' wealth (and that of others) undoubtedly did influence the referendum.

That's a fair point.

TGOHF · June 2018

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21
"The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

Sounds alright.

“Association agreements can vary in scope, though the ones with the closest levels of economic cooperation, such as Ukraine’s, are overseen by the European Court of Justice.”

Yes that bit will have to go - but in general this sounds far easier than starting from scratch.

A loose deal with frictionless trade and security cooperation would seem a reasonable compromise.

Elliot · June 2018

Benpointer said:

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21
"The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

Sounds alright.

Let's hope Putin doesn't take it as a licence to annex Kent.

Can we give him Northern Ireland instead?

Toms · June 2018

Thank you Mr. Bloomberg. I agree with your desire to rebalance the US system of checks & balances.
But, with gratitude and respect, your $80 million pales compared to Boris's Brexit Bus with £350 million on its side.

Benpointer · June 2018

Elliot said:
Javid is going to kick out all the Romanaian street gangs:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44553225

How? Do you think many of them have been caught and convicted?

Morris_Dancer · June 2018

Mr. Rentool, indeed, ideas shouldn't be sacred and shouldn't be immune to criticism, examination, or ridicule. What I'm arguing against is demonising people who hold different political views. Condemning people as malevolent for not subscribing to the One True Way is entirely different to disagreeing with their policy on income tax, for example, and laying out the reasons why.

Edited extra bit: 'reasons' initially had an errant apostrophe, which I have since removed before disembowelling myself.

david_herdson · June 2018

Anazina said:

Benpointer said:
O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.

Unless the Germans lose another ...

Benpointer · June 2018

Elliot said:

Benpointer said:

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21
"The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

Sounds alright.

Let's hope Putin doesn't take it as a licence to annex Kent.
Can we give him Northern Ireland instead?

I don't think the EU will allow that.

TGOHF · June 2018

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

The Irish have left it a bit late to start panicking - they should have been changing into brown trousers the day after the referendum....

Benpointer · June 2018

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:

TGOHF said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1009807528862076929?s=21
"The approach, recommended by the European Parliament based on Theresa May’s red lines, would not include single market or customs union membership"

Sounds alright.

“Association agreements can vary in scope, though the ones with the closest levels of economic cooperation, such as Ukraine’s, are overseen by the European Court of Justice.”
Yes that bit will have to go - but in general this sounds far easier than starting from scratch.

A loose deal with frictionless trade and security cooperation would seem a reasonable compromise like cherry-picking.

Corrected

anothernick · June 2018

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”

Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.

Alistair · June 2018

Chris Deerin is rapidly turning into Nicola Sturgeon's favourite columnist which is a phrase I never thought I would write.

Ever.

Morris_Dancer · June 2018

F1: not a tip, but perusing the market on Ladbrokes and there are a series of race match (team mates) bets. Number 8 has one option: Roman Grosjean at 2.1. I'm sure it'll be amended, but it'd be a splendid thing if you could just lay down the money and make 110% profit in a few days

Foxy · June 2018

david_herdson said:

Anazina said:

Benpointer said:
O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
Unless the Germans lose another ...

They play Sweden on Saturday.

Fox jr has pointed out to me that in the few World Cups the holder has gone out in the group stage of the subsequent one.

TGOHF · June 2018

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.

The Irish will be sacrificed on the EU altar as the clock runs out.

Toms · June 2018

This might be even more effective for the US elections. Damn, it moved me.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/president-trump-looms-over-sobbing-immigrant-child-in-times-latest-cover-2018-06-21

Pulpstar · June 2018

232 is apathetic effort with 9 overs left for 3 wickets down.
We're going to win again.

RobD · June 2018

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.

Then over the cliff it is...

Benpointer · June 2018

TGOHF said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
The Irish will be sacrificed on the EU altar as the clock runs out.

Because let's never forget TNUMTWNT

Richard_Tyndall · June 2018

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.

What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.

Anazina · June 2018

david_herdson said:

Anazina said:

Benpointer said:
O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
Unless the Germans lose another ...

Ha! Fair point.

Benpointer · June 2018

It's all going Pete Tong for Australia now - I should have stuck to my original prediction of 330.

williamglenn · June 2018

Richard_Tyndall said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.

That’s illogical. If the EU don’t mean it, they gain nothing by taking this position.

williamglenn · June 2018

https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/1009813983845548034?s=21

Richard_Tyndall · June 2018

Benpointer said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:
On topic, how far does $80m go in the Congressional mid-term elections? Some figures from the NYT here relating to the 2012 elections suggest that a campaign in a swing district cost around $3m (the article's five years old but I doubt it's got cheaper since).

https://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/how-much-does-a-house-seat-cost/

It also quoted a figure of $10m for victorious senate candidates, though doesn't seem to differentiate there between safe and swing states, gained or retained seats, or large and small states.

So if he wants to make a big difference, it looks as if he'll have to choose between funding a small number of seats, where the finance will really make a difference but risking that the targeting is out, or funding a larger number, spreading the money thinner and risking that it doesn't make all that much difference.

'Help to turn the tide' is about right. It could make a meaningful difference if spent in the right way in the right places.
It's a good point. I am so glad that we don't live in a system where $80m may not make that much of a difference or, for that matter, where it is possible for 1 person's money to have so much influence on the outcome.
Er... Arron Banks?

Peanuts compared to what the Government spent supporting one side. If you are trying to claim money made the difference you are looking at the wrong side in the argument.

PeterC · June 2018

RobD said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
Then over the cliff it is...

The Irish go over the cliff as well. And guess who gets to build the dreaded border ...

TGOHF · June 2018

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.
That’s illogical. If the EU don’t mean it, they gain nothing by taking this position.

What use them to squeeze a few concessions out of the Uk then ultimately tell the Irish to suck it up and accept a deal in the end.

Foxy · June 2018

TGOHF said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
The Irish will be sacrificed on the EU altar as the clock runs out.

I wouldn't count on it, any more than German car makers saving our bacon.

I reckon the EU27 take solidarity very seriously. That is what Unions do.

GarethoftheVale2 · June 2018

Foxy said:

david_herdson said:

Anazina said:

Benpointer said:
O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
Unless the Germans lose another ...
They play Sweden on Saturday.

Fox jr has pointed out to me that in the few World Cups the holder has gone out in the group stage of the subsequent one.

That's interesting. I guess to win a world cup you need a group of players at their peak. 4 years later, if you have the same team they are now past their peak.

Richard_Tyndall · June 2018

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.
That’s illogical. If the EU don’t mean it, they gain nothing by taking this position.

Wrong. Against a weak opponent they would gain by frightening them into accepting what they want.

TGOHF · June 2018

Foxy said:

TGOHF said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
The Irish will be sacrificed on the EU altar as the clock runs out.

I wouldn't count on it, any more than German car makers saving our bacon.

I reckon the EU27 take solidarity very seriously. That is what Unions do.

Heh - yes ask the Greeks and the Italians about that.

Elliot · June 2018

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.

May has only committed to non divergence for NI and no physical infrastructure.

Benpointer · June 2018

Three simple questions for EU Citixens to stay in the UK:
1. Can you prove your ID?
2. Do you have any criminal convictions?
3. Do you live in the UK?
and, er...
4. Do you have an Android phone?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44553225

SandyRentool · June 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Rentool, indeed, ideas shouldn't be sacred and shouldn't be immune to criticism, examination, or ridicule. What I'm arguing against is demonising people who hold different political views. Condemning people as malevolent for not subscribing to the One True Way is entirely different to disagreeing with their policy on income tax, for example, and laying out the reasons why.

Edited extra bit: 'reasons' initially had an errant apostrophe, which I have since removed before disembowelling myself.

Criticism and demonisation are points on a continuum. I don't see a clear distinction.

tpfkar · June 2018

Richard_Tyndall said:

anothernick said:

williamglenn said:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/tánaiste-warns-of-no-deal-brexit-as-negotiations-stall-1.3538765

Mr Coveney added: “But let’s be very clear, there will be no withdrawal agreement, no transition agreement and no managed Brexit if the British government do not follow through on their clear commitments in writing to Ireland and the whole EU.”
Couldn't be clearer. May is going to have to accept an open-ended commitment to NI remaining in SM/CU or it's over the cliff.
What is clear is the Irish are screwed. They should not have let the EU use them as a pawn in the bigger game.

Not sure it is quite as clear as that - the UK folded on this point back in December, the infamous paragraphs 49 and 50. Yes they've been arguing what they agreed since, but precedent suggests that May will deal here at the last minute.

Foxy · June 2018

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Foxy said:

david_herdson said:

Anazina said:

Benpointer said:
O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
Unless the Germans lose another ...
They play Sweden on Saturday.

Fox jr has pointed out to me that in the few World Cups the holder has gone out in the group stage of the subsequent one.
That's interesting. I guess to win a world cup you need a group of players at their peak. 4 years later, if you have the same team they are now past their peak.

Plus, as automatic qualifiers, they dont have qualifying rounds to build a team on.

Benpointer · June 2018

Foxy said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

Foxy said:

david_herdson said:

Anazina said:

Benpointer said:
O/T For those who can't wait for sall the actual WC games to play out, 538 have a really cool WC predictor. Great fun - and you only have to plug in a couple of upsets for England to win it!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/bracket/

That is a work of mathematical art. England might need to make sure they don't win their group. The German defeat to Mexico really could put the cat among the pigeons.
Unless the Germans lose another ...
They play Sweden on Saturday.

Fox jr has pointed out to me that in the few World Cups the holder has gone out in the group stage of the subsequent one.
That's interesting. I guess to win a world cup you need a group of players at their peak. 4 years later, if you have the same team they are now past their peak.
Plus, as automatic qualifiers, they dont have qualifying rounds to build a team on.

The winners don't qualify automatically these days.

FrancisUrquhart · June 2018

Benpointer said:
Three simple questions for EU Citixens to stay in the UK:
1. Can you prove your ID?
2. Do you have any criminal convictions?
3. Do you live in the UK?
and, er...
4. Do you have an Android phone?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44553225

Another exanple of the apple icrap...where nothing bloody works properly anymore.

The whole selling point of apple was lovely design and an OS that just worked. Now every day there is a new story how it doesn’t.

Nigelb · June 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Surby, the wrapping up of morality in politics is delinquent tomfoolery.

If one assumes that difference of political preference is not a matter of judgement or personal taste but a question of morality then it logically follows on from that that one's own side is good. However, that necessarily means that deviation from that 'good' perspective is indicative of wickedness.

But that flies in the face of the essential principle of democratic freedom, namely that it's entirely legitimate for intelligent people to hear the same arguments, see the same evidence, and yet reach differing conclusions as to the best way forward.

And such people then cling to their self-ordained righteousness even when they celebrate the death of an OAP. It's zealous idiocy.

People can differ without being evil or stupid.

And then you have President Trump...

Morris_Dancer · June 2018

Mr. Rentool, because you've misunderstood the distinction.

Criticising ideas is fine. Detesting people because of prejudice is not.

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