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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year
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I can't see how any legal case to stop Brexit would succeed, now that Parliament has passed legislation to exercise A50, and passed the withdrawal Bill.
And no - Brexit will not be stopped by legal challenges - far too late
The law is crystal clear that we're exiting the EU because of an Act of Parliament not the referendum and it will take another Act of Parliament to reverse that.
For what it's worth I'd have thought there's no better than a 1 in 6 chance of the date being put back, and probably much lower than that.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-44578499
Can’t win...if they did nothing they would be criticised be for out of touch, if they served crap, they would be criticised for serving unhealthy stuff to kids, ....
by more.
But is baked potato coleslaw and beans really slumming it?
"I'm not saying we can finish it all by June, but if we are to drag it out until the end, the British could come in the last few days with their €50 billion cheque and say: ‘We’re going to do this and we’re going to do that, and going to do the other’.
"And they’ll say to the French and the Germans who are making the running on this, we’ve given the Irish a lot, now is the time for the Irish to move, and the pressure will come back on us."
The Irish know they are in danger of overplaying their hand.
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1010193597508046849?s=21
We currently have a cap on skilled non-EU migration (including doctors etc) but no cap on EU migration regardless of skills. Nobody ever surveys whether having no cap at all on skilled migration (from EU and non-EU both) is a good idea.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1010198002991075328?s=20
Just not in a good way.
I think the offence is just being a private school.
The issue with austerity is housing costs.
That might have been a better item for a west London school to focus upon.
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Perthshire
Fife
Nottinghamshire
Staffordshire
Norfolk
Herefordshire
Kent
The only new point of interest is the increasing numbers of packs with yellow stickers on supply exceeding demand after months of the glut I suspect.
' A little girl who became the public face of US migrant family separations was not taken away from her mother at the US border, says her father.
A photograph of the Honduran toddler sobbing in a pink jacket was taken at the scene of a border detention.
Time magazine has used the image for its latest cover, depicting President Donald Trump looming over the girl with the caption: "Welcome to America".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44578339
It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.
It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.
It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1010100142215761921
I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).
Who knows what will happen but remainers and leavers need to realise they both have to compromise
And hopefully TM will arrive at that compromise
There is already a civil war in parliament and in the cabinet. A civil war only ends when one side is the decisive winner. There is a majority for remain in parliament which is supreme (with help from the Queen and the Speaker) and that will determine the result.
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1010213353539690496?s=20
https://twitter.com/BBCBusiness/status/1010202128734998529
I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.
Either that or SeanT has hacked everyone's account and is amusing himself by playing out every different scenario at once.
The ones I remember were all disasters.
“The will of the People is the will of the Government and vice versa. The modern structure of the state is a higher form of democracy in which, by virtue of the people’s mandate, government is exercised authoritatively where there is no possibility of parliamentary interference, to obliterate and render ineffective the execution of the nation’s will. “
I will get my coat because I have to go out. Have a good evening.
I suspect that May will eat humble pie and sign up to the EU27 Deal in the end. She doesnt want tobe at the wheel when the crash happens.
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf
The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.
Life's too short.
They generally don't just spout any old sh*te off the top of their heads based on headlines. We can leave that to politicians.
Those who claim to be embodying the will of the people should be more aware of the uncomfortable history of this claim.