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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited June 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    First
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    2nd
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    I can't see how any legal case to stop Brexit would succeed, now that Parliament has passed legislation to exercise A50, and passed the withdrawal Bill.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Have a good wedding

    And no - Brexit will not be stopped by legal challenges - far too late
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    There can't be court cases against Brexit because of R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union [2017]

    The law is crystal clear that we're exiting the EU because of an Act of Parliament not the referendum and it will take another Act of Parliament to reverse that.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    There can't be court cases against Brexit because of R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union [2017]

    The law is crystal clear that we're exiting the EU because of an Act of Parliament not the referendum and it will take another Act of Parliament to reverse that.

    Ironic...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    My favourite market of the last year.

    For what it's worth I'd have thought there's no better than a 1 in 6 chance of the date being put back, and probably much lower than that.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2018
    I wonder whether a possible change of leadership in Germany might cause Brexit to be delayed in a way that no-one is currently predicting.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Mr. Nick, if it's impossible, why was Varadkar's predecessor working with us on it?

    The UK government needs to hammer this point home every day.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Quality goal!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    St Paul's Girls' School 'Austerity Day' criticised

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-44578499

    Can’t win...if they did nothing they would be criticised be for out of touch, if they served crap, they would be criticised for serving unhealthy stuff to kids, ....
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Have a good wedding

    And no - Brexit will not be stopped by legal challenges - far too late

    And certainly not because of an investigation into spending by the leave campaign or its offshoots by the Electoral Commission when remain (including HM govt) reportedly spent about £15 million more on its campaign. If there had truly been a fair campaign money wise leave would probably have won
    by more.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    This is that moment in Lord of the Rings when Elrond notes our list of allies grows thin

    Bad comparison. Elrond was on the side of the enlightened.
    Can't have been that enlightened. Lists get longer or shorter, not thinner.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    There can't be court cases against Brexit because of R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union [2017]

    The law is crystal clear that we're exiting the EU because of an Act of Parliament not the referendum and it will take another Act of Parliament to reverse that.

    Hedge fund Gina deserves a great deal of thanks for helping to secure Brexit!
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    St Paul's Girls' School 'Austerity Day' criticised

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-44578499

    Can’t win...if they did nothing they would be criticised be for out of touch, if they served crap, they would be criticised for serving unhealthy stuff to kids, ....

    the reality is that school dinners are not crap... Other than due to pressure theyve actively reduced the best parts, fat, sugar and salt.

    But is baked potato coleslaw and beans really slumming it?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Does the UK export more autoparts to the EU than the other way round? That is what will define whihc sector grows more.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Bertie Ahern:

    "I'm not saying we can finish it all by June, but if we are to drag it out until the end, the British could come in the last few days with their €50 billion cheque and say: ‘We’re going to do this and we’re going to do that, and going to do the other’.

    "And they’ll say to the French and the Germans who are making the running on this, we’ve given the Irish a lot, now is the time for the Irish to move, and the pressure will come back on us."

    The Irish know they are in danger of overplaying their hand.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2018
    brendan16 said:

    There can't be court cases against Brexit because of R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union [2017]

    The law is crystal clear that we're exiting the EU because of an Act of Parliament not the referendum and it will take another Act of Parliament to reverse that.

    Hedge fund Gina deserves a great deal of thanks for helping to secure Brexit!
    I think she deserves thanks for bringing what was a worthy case, regardless of it helping to secure Brexit or not. OGH is I think getting a little excited, considering elections are not automatically invalidated entirely because of financial irregularities (which should be punished, the rules are the rules after all), and that as any number of people on either side have pointed out to their advantage at times, the referendum was advisory. Of course it was the reason the Act was passed, but it's now up to the MPs to decide to repeal it if they think this news undermines the reason they voted for the Act in the first place.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Elliot said:

    Does the UK export more autoparts to the EU than the other way round? That is what will define whihc sector grows more.

    We import in 2016 12.2B USD export 4.4B USD.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Elliot said:

    Does the UK export more autoparts to the EU than the other way round? That is what will define whihc sector grows more.

    We import in 2016 12.2B USD export 4.4B USD.
    So if border friction forces consolidated supply chains the UK is likely to gain automotive activity on net, even if it causes a bit of reduction of total production overall.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Shame there aren't more nuanced polls more often. Where is "less unskilled migration but more and easier skilled migration" as an option?

    We currently have a cap on skilled non-EU migration (including doctors etc) but no cap on EU migration regardless of skills. Nobody ever surveys whether having no cap at all on skilled migration (from EU and non-EU both) is a good idea.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770
    brendan16 said:

    There can't be court cases against Brexit because of R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union [2017]

    The law is crystal clear that we're exiting the EU because of an Act of Parliament not the referendum and it will take another Act of Parliament to reverse that.

    Hedge fund Gina deserves a great deal of thanks for helping to secure Brexit!
    As predicted by me at the time (polishes nails).
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Elliot said:

    Elliot said:

    Does the UK export more autoparts to the EU than the other way round? That is what will define whihc sector grows more.

    We import in 2016 12.2B USD export 4.4B USD.
    So if border friction forces consolidated supply chains the UK is likely to gain automotive activity on net, even if it causes a bit of reduction of total production overall.
    Not border friction, but price, rules of origin and the fact that the ideal location for a head of manufacturing at a car company for their suppliers is in a 1 mile circle around the car factory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/thetimes/status/1010198479363244032

    The fact that China and the US are mentioned before elsewhere in the EU is telling.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Hope the wedding is splendid :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Not good enough from Iceland.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/thetimes/status/1010198479363244032

    The fact that China and the US are mentioned before elsewhere in the EU is telling.
    If anyone should be upset it’s Hamburg - looks like 320 wing assembly isn’t going there as they’ve been angling for for years....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    More testimony to the sound sense of the British:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1010198002991075328?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,571

    More testimony to the sound sense of the British:

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1010198002991075328?s=20

    I don't know... Trump can be inspirational from time to time.

    Just not in a good way.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    edited June 2018

    St Paul's Girls' School 'Austerity Day' criticised

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-44578499

    Can’t win...if they did nothing they would be criticised be for out of touch, if they served crap, they would be criticised for serving unhealthy stuff to kids, ....

    I can see precisely nothing wrong with this.

    I think the offence is just being a private school.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Shame there aren't more nuanced polls more often. Where is "less unskilled migration but more and easier skilled migration" as an option?

    We currently have a cap on skilled non-EU migration (including doctors etc) but no cap on EU migration regardless of skills. Nobody ever surveys whether having no cap at all on skilled migration (from EU and non-EU both) is a good idea.
    Surely to heavens our experience with EU negotiations so far has shown that it’s pointless to make “generous” offers (security, defence) - the EU simply banks them and says “more”. We should start from “Eu is a third country” (as they never tire of telling us we are) and say “any improvement contingent on trade deal” - rather than the fatuous “if we’re generous on immigration they’ll be nice to us on trade.”
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Miss Vance, with the exception of House of Cards (itself aping a UK TV programme/book), US depictions of fictional presidents tend to be inspirational. UK fictional PMs are largely villains or fools. Urquhart or Hacker.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited June 2018

    Miss Vance, with the exception of House of Cards (itself aping a UK TV programme/book), US depictions of fictional presidents tend to be inspirational. UK fictional PMs are largely villains or fools. Urquhart or Hacker.

    I'd say by the end of Yes Prime Minister Hacker was neither a villain nor a fool, though he could indeed be foolish. He had more steel in him, and wiliness, by the end.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    St Paul's Girls' School 'Austerity Day' criticised

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-44578499

    Can’t win...if they did nothing they would be criticised be for out of touch, if they served crap, they would be criticised for serving unhealthy stuff to kids, ....

    I can see precisely nothing wrong with this.

    I think the offence is just being a private school.
    Food is cheap in this country.

    The issue with austerity is housing costs.

    That might have been a better item for a west London school to focus upon.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Today's Tesco Strawberry score is once again nine:

    Aberdeenshire
    Angus
    Perthshire
    Fife
    Nottinghamshire
    Staffordshire
    Norfolk
    Herefordshire
    Kent

    The only new point of interest is the increasing numbers of packs with yellow stickers on supply exceeding demand after months of the glut I suspect.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Difficult to know what to believe any more but I don't expect Time magazine will be too concerned:

    ' A little girl who became the public face of US migrant family separations was not taken away from her mother at the US border, says her father.

    A photograph of the Honduran toddler sobbing in a pink jacket was taken at the scene of a border detention.

    Time magazine has used the image for its latest cover, depicting President Donald Trump looming over the girl with the caption: "Welcome to America".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44578339
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    brendan16 said:

    Have a good wedding

    And no - Brexit will not be stopped by legal challenges - far too late

    And certainly not because of an investigation into spending by the leave campaign or its offshoots by the Electoral Commission when remain (including HM govt) reportedly spent about £15 million more on its campaign. If there had truly been a fair campaign money wise leave would probably have won
    by more.
    Remain had the benefit of incumbency, the organisation of the civil service behind it and donations from lots of high profile businesses. However this was fair as most people would understand it, as they were open about it, and to be honest I think the Leave campaign were able to play the underdog, anti establishment card.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

    It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

    In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

    In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
    I assume in this scenario we all get free vodka to vote for him? Could work.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

    In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
    Who added you to the whatsapp group?! ;)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

    It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
    Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

    In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
    That is some imagination
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

    It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
    Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change
    It can only be Ken Clarke in that case. Watch how he has Farage eating out of his hand.

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1010100142215761921
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

    In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
    That is some imagination
    That's the plan. In reality, I suspect Juncker would struggle to top 95% in the by-election.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Shame there aren't more nuanced polls more often. Where is "less unskilled migration but more and easier skilled migration" as an option?

    We currently have a cap on skilled non-EU migration (including doctors etc) but no cap on EU migration regardless of skills. Nobody ever surveys whether having no cap at all on skilled migration (from EU and non-EU both) is a good idea.
    Surely to heavens our experience with EU negotiations so far has shown that it’s pointless to make “generous” offers (security, defence) - the EU simply banks them and says “more”. We should start from “Eu is a third country” (as they never tire of telling us we are) and say “any improvement contingent on trade deal” - rather than the fatuous “if we’re generous on immigration they’ll be nice to us on trade.”
    If I were negotiating with the EU I would be leaving open the possibility of a second referendum. That would mean they would have to be more careful to court public opinion. At the moment we are not playing the advantages we do have. I would also be negotiating the no deal WTO situation as default - it would then mean that "things could only get better"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

    It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
    Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change
    It can only be Ken Clarke in that case. Watch how he has Farage eating out of his hand.

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1010100142215761921
    How pissed did Ken Clarke sound in that clip?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

    It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
    Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change
    It can only be Ken Clarke in that case. Watch how he has Farage eating out of his hand.

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1010100142215761921
    You really do not get it. It would have to be someone acceptable to both sides and Ken Clarke has no chance of that. You may as well appoint Juncker though you probably would
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

    In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
    I prefer the scenario where the Queen Mother is revealed not to have died, is absolved of her involvement in the assassination of Princess Diana (they never did find that white Fiat), extolles her daughter to summon the Dunkirk spirit and put Britain on a wartime footing - after seeing both their food exports and food imports rot at Holyhead, Ireland sues the EU to settle on terms dictated by Prime Minister Gove, who sadly is shortly thereafter taken from us after an accident on an Aberdeen fishing boat. Prime Minister Javid then comes out as gay and the Labour Front Bench spontaneously combusts...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    It's important to bear in mind that May has a penchant for dramatised set piece interventions. There's a common thread running all the way from the nasty party speech through to the snap election. She will have plans for a game changer of her own, but we just don't know what it is yet.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

    Both Remainers - would create fury - not going to happen

    Who knows what will happen but remainers and leavers need to realise they both have to compromise

    And hopefully TM will arrive at that compromise
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
    Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787

    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

    Both Remainers - would create fury - not going to happen

    Who knows what will happen but remainers and leavers need to realise they both have to compromise

    And hopefully TM will arrive at that compromise
    Remainers can compromise by giving up on Dave's Deal, and Leavers can compromise by giving up on Brexit. That way nobody gets what they were campaigning for in the referendum.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
    Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.
    Strange logic
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

    Both Remainers - would create fury - not going to happen

    Who knows what will happen but remainers and leavers need to realise they both have to compromise

    And hopefully TM will arrive at that compromise
    I’m not expecting any compromise. I’m not expecting either side to be happy either. I expect continuing bitter conflict on the subject for the foreseeable future.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

    It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
    Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change
    Mrs May was the candidate who could command respect from both sides and she has failed.

    There is already a civil war in parliament and in the cabinet. A civil war only ends when one side is the decisive winner. There is a majority for remain in parliament which is supreme (with help from the Queen and the Speaker) and that will determine the result.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Meanwhile, in enlightened cosmopolitan Europe:

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1010213353539690496?s=20
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

    It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
    Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change
    Mrs May was the candidate who could command respect from both sides and she has failed.

    There is already a civil war in parliament and in the cabinet. A civil war only ends when one side is the decisive winner. There is a majority for remain in parliament which is supreme (with help from the Queen and the Speaker) and that will determine the result.
    Desperate stuff when you have to suggest the Queen and the Speaker will conspire to keep us in the EU against a democratic vote of the people
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
    Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.
    Are you feeling ok? Otherwise what utter rot.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    It's important to bear in mind that May has a penchant for dramatised set piece interventions. There's a common thread running all the way from the nasty party speech through to the snap election. She will have plans for a game changer of her own, but we just don't know what it is yet.
    Good observation. I hope you are right.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,688

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
    Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.
    I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

    I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
    Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.
    Bartender! I’ll have one of what he’s having - but make mine a single...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

    It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
    Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change
    Mrs May was the candidate who could command respect from both sides and she has failed.

    There is already a civil war in parliament and in the cabinet. A civil war only ends when one side is the decisive winner. There is a majority for remain in parliament which is supreme (with help from the Queen and the Speaker) and that will determine the result.
    Desperate stuff when you have to suggest the Queen and the Speaker will conspire to keep us in the EU against a democratic vote of the people
    Desperate times if we are faced with an unprepared crash-out. It would be a very serious national emergency.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

    In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
    I prefer the scenario where the Queen Mother is revealed not to have died, is absolved of her involvement in the assassination of Princess Diana (they never did find that white Fiat), extolles her daughter to summon the Dunkirk spirit and put Britain on a wartime footing - after seeing both their food exports and food imports rot at Holyhead, Ireland sues the EU to settle on terms dictated by Prime Minister Gove, who sadly is shortly thereafter taken from us after an accident on an Aberdeen fishing boat. Prime Minister Javid then comes out as gay and the Labour Front Bench spontaneously combusts...
    Now now children. This is serious.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    It's important to bear in mind that May has a penchant for dramatised set piece interventions. There's a common thread running all the way from the nasty party speech through to the snap election. She will have plans for a game changer of her own, but we just don't know what it is yet.
    Mrs May’s “game changers” have had, at best, “mixed” results....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Omnium said:

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
    Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.
    I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

    I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.
    Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056

    Meanwhile, in enlightened cosmopolitan Europe:

    https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1010213353539690496?s=20

    Yes, Kippers should be quite happy there....
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    Pulpstar said:

    Omnium said:

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
    Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.
    I think I'd prefer to leave and then reapply. At least we have some semblance of a constitution if we do that. Something must be done, and be seen to have been done as a result of the referendum.

    I think we're far enough along with the process that its just a matter of getting to actual Brexit. After that everything can be finessed at everyone's leisure. We could rejoin the most euro-hugger of things on a case-by-case basis. The default position is the only thing that's changed - our new default is don't join, whereas our old default was join, and in fact must join.
    Leaving then rejoining would honour the referendum result whereas remaining would not. Like Ireland's abortion laws the consent would be with the British people
    Leaving with an unprepared crashout might honour the referendum result but would be completely insane. It would be parliament's duty to prevent that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
    Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.
    Bartender! I’ll have one of what he’s having - but make mine a single...
    I think looking at the posts tonight everyone seems to have been drinking either pints of Junker's favourite tipple, or an especially strong pan-Galactic Gargle Blaster.

    Either that or SeanT has hacked everyone's account and is amusing himself by playing out every different scenario at once.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741

    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    It's important to bear in mind that May has a penchant for dramatised set piece interventions. There's a common thread running all the way from the nasty party speech through to the snap election. She will have plans for a game changer of her own, but we just don't know what it is yet.
    Mrs May’s “game changers” have had, at best, “mixed” results....
    Have they? Which one was mixed?

    The ones I remember were all disasters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    An interesting quote on the Will of the People, from the FT, any guesses as to the speaker? :

    “The will of the People is the will of the Government and vice versa. The modern structure of the state is a higher form of democracy in which, by virtue of the people’s mandate, government is exercised authoritatively where there is no possibility of parliamentary interference, to obliterate and render ineffective the execution of the nation’s will. “
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,741
    Foxy said:

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    An interesting quote on the Will of the People, from the FT, any guesses as to the speaker? :

    “The will of the People is the will of the Government and vice versa. The modern structure of the state is a higher form of democracy in which, by virtue of the people’s mandate, government is exercised authoritatively where there is no possibility of parliamentary interference, to obliterate and render ineffective the execution of the nation’s will. “
    Will of the People - that must be the Duke of Cambridge.

    I will get my coat because I have to go out. Have a good evening.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    edited June 2018

    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    It's important to bear in mind that May has a penchant for dramatised set piece interventions. There's a common thread running all the way from the nasty party speech through to the snap election. She will have plans for a game changer of her own, but we just don't know what it is yet.
    Frankly if May was going to salvage something from this mess she would have done it by now. No one trusts her, not even her own cabinet, and her leadership and communication skills are virtually non existent. If she announced tomorrow that she favoured some form of soft Brexit people would doubt her veracity and interpret it as a mealy-mouthed attempt to win over some faction or other for a parliamentary vote next week. In any case, the divisions in the Tory Party are too deep and animosities too bitter for them to be bridged by a single intervention by anyone.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,056

    My favourite market of the last year.

    For what it's worth I'd have thought there's no better than a 1 in 6 chance of the date being put back, and probably much lower than that.

    I reckon an A50 extension is a definite possibility, so have banked my profit on this market.

    I suspect that May will eat humble pie and sign up to the EU27 Deal in the end. She doesnt want tobe at the wheel when the crash happens.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,543
    edited June 2018
    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

    Correct. There needs to be a crisis so the necessary resolution happens. At that point people will stop caring about immigration, payments to Brussels etc. It could be extremely painful. Right now everyone is in denial. In particular the Government. Leavers are obviously in denial, but Remainers too, to some extent.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

    The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    Barnesian said:

    It is important to consider the endgame if May continues to procrastinate and not face up to the contradictions in her position and her opponents in Cabinet. There will be an endgame. It is inescapable.

    I think Grieve was rehearsing this in his tortured journey to a meaningful vote if there is no deal. He will have a key role with Starmer where there mutual respect (Starmer was DPP under Grieve as AG).

    Both Remainers - would create fury - not going to happen

    Who knows what will happen but remainers and leavers need to realise they both have to compromise

    And hopefully TM will arrive at that compromise
    I’m not expecting any compromise. I’m not expecting either side to be happy either. I expect continuing bitter conflict on the subject for the foreseeable future.
    I'm not sure I can be arsed.

    Life's too short.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

    In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
    I think William Glenn is going to have some private "quiet time" with this post later this evening.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Serbia 1-0 Kosovo.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    Serbia 1-0 Kosovo.

    Kosovo?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Foxy said:

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    An interesting quote on the Will of the People, from the FT, any guesses as to the speaker? :

    “The will of the People is the will of the Government and vice versa. The modern structure of the state is a higher form of democracy in which, by virtue of the people’s mandate, government is exercised authoritatively where there is no possibility of parliamentary interference, to obliterate and render ineffective the execution of the nation’s will. “
    Justin Trudeau?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    Grieve, Hammond(P), Umanna, Starmer, Cable, Blackford.

    It would be a real crisis with the prospect of crashing out with no preparations and really dire consequences. It would be a national emergency - the scenario that keeps Grieve awake at night. There would be a vote of no confidence in the government with a temporary coalition of Remainer Tories, Labour, SNP and LIbDems to extend A50 and either agree a very soft Brexit and/or put options to a people's vote. The Queen would have to be assured that this grouping had the confidence of the House and the Speaker would have to facilitate it. It would be high drama.
    Well they are all remainers and civil war would break out in politics. It needs someone who can command respect from both sides and at present I do not see anyone though that could change
    It can only be Ken Clarke in that case. Watch how he has Farage eating out of his hand.

    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1010100142215761921
    How pissed did Ken Clarke sound in that clip?
    Didn't Ken Clarke say in his autobiography that he's consumed alcohol every day for over fifty years ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    tlg86 said:

    Serbia 1-0 Kosovo.

    Kosovo?
    A number of the Swiss side are from Kosovo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    Are you sure you mean leavers in your first sentence
    Absolutely! They'd never admit it, but Leavers would secretly love Brexit to be cancelled, in a way in which they could still cry foul while breathing a silent sigh of relief.
    Farage certainly would, UKIP would be on 30% in the polls within a week and Farage could 'reluctantly' re enter the fray as UKIP leader to represent 'the people' against the political elite
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Barnesian said:

    Brexit will not be derailed by any legal stuff. That's pie in the sky.

    It could be derailed by a big switch in public opinion (which probably won't happen) that causes the PM and LOTO to reconsider their strategy.

    It could also be derailed by May procrastinating to the very end because of the contradictions in her position and threats from her cabinet. The process might simply run out of road and adults take over at the last moment in a constitutional crisis that will test the Queen and the Speaker.

    Interesting but who are your adults - genuine question
    I think the plan is for Juncker to stand at the next by-election in the UK. When he is elected with 99% of the vote, he then leads a revolt by pro-EU MPs, and becomes Prime Minister.

    In his dual roles, he puts Britain at the heart of Europe, and introduces the Euro to the UK. He is hailed by all as the greatest statesman of his age.
    Sounds as cunning a plan as John Steven's Pro Euro Conservative Party's plan to beat Hague's Tories at the 1999 European elections
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    Reckon Yugoslavia would have walked this tournament.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

    The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.
    Whilst there is some truth in your last line, I doubt it is as plain, simple or one-dimensional as that. People - and especially successful multinational companies - usually weigh up a whole load of factors when making decisions or statements.

    They generally don't just spout any old sh*te off the top of their heads based on headlines. We can leave that to politicians. ;)
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572

    Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

    The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.
    Perhaps the UK Government should float the idea of a law to the effect that the flag of the main country of manufacture of every car built post Brexit should by law be displayed on the vehicle.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,545
    Foxy said:

    As much as the Leavers would like some kind of legal challenge to derail Brexit this will not, and indeed should not, be allowed to happen. There must be no easy left off for those who orchestrated this mischief. We hear today that Farage is airily content to see British manufacturing put to the sword to facilitate his plans. I'd hate to see this happen myself, but 'the Will of the People' and all that. No, the Leavers have made their decision. Not seeing it through is the coward's way out.

    An interesting quote on the Will of the People, from the FT, any guesses as to the speaker? :

    “The will of the People is the will of the Government and vice versa. The modern structure of the state is a higher form of democracy in which, by virtue of the people’s mandate, government is exercised authoritatively where there is no possibility of parliamentary interference, to obliterate and render ineffective the execution of the nation’s will. “
    Josef Goebbels. The Nazis considered themselves to be the embodiment of the will of the people since they created their dictatorship and the position of fuhrer through the use of referenda. Their most famous propaganda film was called Triumph of the Will. And of course they arraigned their political opponents in show trials conducted in Peoples' Courts (a name also used for the courts which conducted Stalin's show trials).

    Those who claim to be embodying the will of the people should be more aware of the uncomfortable history of this claim.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,009

    Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

    The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.
    Whilst there is some truth in your last line, I doubt it is as plain, simple or one-dimensional as that. People - and especially successful multinational companies - usually weigh up a whole load of factors when making decisions or statements.

    They generally don't just spout any old sh*te off the top of their heads based on headlines. We can leave that to politicians. ;)
    Of course, but the fact these announcements are all coming out on the same day, only days before the European Council meeting, is no coincidence.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,770

    Did you even read the post on the previous thread?

    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

    The German carmarkers are in far deeper shit than we'd be (we'd actually be slightly better off) in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

    These are political manoeveres. Plain and simple.
    Perhaps the UK Government should float the idea of a law to the effect that the flag of the main country of manufacture of every car built post Brexit should by law be displayed on the vehicle.
    If it's assembled in the UK of entirely French parts, is that a British car?
This discussion has been closed.