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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,707
    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    The new Gove created GCSEs have effectively awarded the top grade 9 to only half those who used to get an A* and there is now an A* at A Level too. I expect the started first will soon be along shortly and the government is already talking about more rigid grade boundaries for degrees
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,552

    Not sure what Trump is trying to say here.
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1010486772541816834

    He’s heard that Mueller is involved...
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Müller
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    I'm sure you are right. iirc the article said such data was not being collected before 1990.

    As a 1985 graduate, there were a tiny handful of 1st in my course that year. Can't remember exactly how many out of a cohort of 50, but something like 3 or 4.

    And generally, around the campus, the only students thought likely to get a first worked like maniacs, lived like monks and were never seen doing much else.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:



    Checked the figures. Non eu trade is 33% of GDP for the UK and 35% for the EU as a whole So not a huge difference. Intra EU trade much higher for eurozone countries thanks to the EU breaking down barriers Brexit Britain wants to reinstate.

    Source: DG Trade statistical guide June 2018 p22

    No intra-EU trade is much higher for Eurozone nations for them physically bordering each other in a way we don't. For many EU nations trade going the distance of Edinburgh to London would class as INTRA-EU but it doesn't for us.
    The point is, less UK EU trade simply reflects our lower trade overall. It isn't because the EU is protectionist and holding us back. The opposite in fact.
    So we have a free trade agreement with the USA? Or China? Or Japan? In fact name one non-European nation with an economy larger than ours that we have a free trade agreement with.

    Or are you claiming free trade agreements don't matter, in which case why does our EU membership matter?

    Seems like you're trying to have your cake and eat it.
    The EU is not a free trade agreement. It’s an integrated internal market.
    Yet our proportion of trade with the EU has shrank year on year relative to the rest of the world. Funny that. Anyway do free trade agreements matter or not in your eyes?
    They matter, but multilateral agreements are much better if the aim is to increase overall trade
    So how many non-European nations with an economy larger than ours has the EU reached a multilateral agreement with?
    All of them. It's called the WTO.
    So WTO terms are good enough?
    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
    Circular reasoning. Once we are outside the EU, by your reasoning, WTO rules will be appropriate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,707
    edited June 2018
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another Republican says vote Democrat in the midterms:
    http://thehill.com/homenews/393728-george-will-argues-for-voting-against-the-gop-in-midterms

    On its own, of little significance, but it’s just possible the ‘vote against Trump’s enablers’ call will get som traction.

    Of the last 10 midterms in a President's first term, the President's party has lost seats in 9 of them and control of at least one chamber of Congress in 4 of them so he is really just going with the tide which will be anti GOP in November anyway and Trump or no Trump that would likely still be the case
    Unusual for retiring Congressmen to be making the same argument, though...
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/i-wasnt-trump-enough-in-the-age-of-trump-so-i-lost/2018/06/22/56949d5a-7653-11e8-9780-b1dd6a09b549_story.html

    The Republican Party is going through an identity crisis. We need to decide who we are. I

    I have all the merit badges and hard-fought votes to demonstrate my allegiance to those ideals. But voters in this election did not value this as much as they did fidelity to our president. In fact, on election night, my opponent proclaimed in her victory speech that “we are the party of Donald J. Trump.”...
    The establishment GOP clearly loathes Trump (think Osborne's contempt for May and Brexit×10), the Bushes refused to vote for him as most likely did Romney and McCain and former Speaker Boehner has said at the moment there is no Republican Party just a Trump Party. Unfortunately for them most Trump voters will not muster up much enthusiasm in November to vote for McConnell or Ryan's Congressional Party in the way they will turnout for Trump in 2020
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    I'm sure you are right. iirc the article said such data was not being collected before 1990.

    As a 1985 graduate, there were a tiny handful of 1st in my course that year. Can't remember exactly how many out of a cohort of 50, but something like 3 or 4.

    And generally, around the campus, the only students thought likely to get a first worked like maniacs, lived like monks and were never seen doing much else.
    I recall that in 1975 there was utter astonishment at my Russell Group university when someone was awarded a First in History . It had not happened in the previous ten years!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    edited June 2018

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:



    Checked the figures. Non eu trade is 33% of GDP for the UK and 35% for the EU as a whole So not a huge difference. Intra EU trade much higher for eurozone countries thanks to the EU breaking down barriers Brexit Britain wants to reinstate.

    Source: DG Trade statistical guide June 2018 p22

    No intra-EU trade is much higher for Eurozone nations for them physically bordering each other in a way we don't. For many EU nations trade going the distance of Edinburgh to London would class as INTRA-EU but it doesn't for us.
    The point is, less UK EU trade simply reflects our lower trade overall. It isn't because the EU is protectionist and holding us back. The opposite in fact.
    So we have a free trade agreement with the USA? Or China? Or Japan? In fact name one non-European nation with an economy larger than ours that we have a free trade agreement with.

    Or are you claiming free trade agreements don't matter, in which case why does our EU membership matter?

    Seems like you're trying to have your cake and eat it.
    The EU is not a free trade agreement. It’s an integrated internal market.
    Yet our proportion of trade with the EU has shrank year on year relative to the rest of the world. Funny that. Anyway do free trade agreements matter or not in your eyes?
    They matter, but multilateral agreements are much better if the aim is to increase overall trade
    So how many non-European nations with an economy larger than ours has the EU reached a multilateral agreement with?
    All of them. It's called the WTO.
    So WTO terms are good enough?
    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
    Circular reasoning. Once we are outside the EU, by your reasoning, WTO rules will be appropriate.
    Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Further on uni grades.

    Andy Kershaw, the radio and music guy, tells a great anecdote in his autobiog. Having spent three years in early 1980s running student concerts at the legendary Leeds refec, he, obviously, failed his finals in political studies.

    He was very worried when the Vice Chancellor called him in to his office.

    To Kershaw's astonishment, the VC apologised for allowing him to become the only person, ever, to fail a degree in the politics and social studies department.

    He then went on to say, 'don't feel too down about it'. You've contributed massively to the life of the university over your time here and I am writing you a personal reference you can use to get a job.

    What days they were!!!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    F1: written almost all the pre-qualifying stuff (which has a surprising quantity of news), but waiting for the markets to wake up. Unlikely I'll be betting, but I'll see if any numbers look wrong.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Further on uni grades.

    Andy Kershaw, the radio and music guy, tells a great anecdote in his autobiog. Having spent three years in early 1980s running student concerts at the legendary Leeds refec, he, obviously, failed his finals in political studies.

    He was very worried when the Vice Chancellor called him in to his office.

    To Kershaw's astonishment, the VC apologised for allowing him to become the only person, ever, to fail a degree in the politics and social studies department.

    He then went on to say, 'don't feel too down about it'. You've contributed massively to the life of the university over your time here and I am writing you a personal reference you can use to get a job.

    What days they were!!!

    Well even in those days it was pretty difficult to fail an Arts or Social Science degree course - though quite a few Thirds and Pass degrees were awarded.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:



    Checked the figures. Non eu trade is 33% of GDP for the UK and 35% for the EU as a whole So not a huge difference. Intra EU trade much higher for eurozone countries thanks to the EU breaking down barriers Brexit Britain wants to reinstate.

    Source: DG Trade statistical guide June 2018 p22

    No intra-EU trade is much higher for Eurozone nations for them physically bordering each other in a way we don't. For many EU nations trade going the distance of Edinburgh to London would class as INTRA-EU but it doesn't for us.
    The point is, less UK EU trade simply reflects our lower trade overall. It isn't because the EU is protectionist and holding us back. The opposite in fact.
    So we have a free trade agreement with the USA? Or China? Or Japan? In fact name one non-European nation with an economy larger than ours that we have a free trade agreement with.

    Or are you claiming free trade agreements don't matter, in which case why does our EU membership matter?

    Seems like you're trying to have your cake and eat it.
    The EU is not a free trade agreement. It’s an integrated internal market.
    Yet our proportion of trade with the EU has shrank year on year relative to the rest of the world. Funny that. Anyway do free trade agreements matter or not in your eyes?
    They matter, but multilateral agreements are much better if the aim is to increase overall trade
    So how many non-European nations with an economy larger than ours has the EU reached a multilateral agreement with?
    All of them. It's called the WTO.
    So WTO terms are good enough?
    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.
    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    F1: written almost all the pre-qualifying stuff (which has a surprising quantity of news), but waiting for the markets to wake up. Unlikely I'll be betting, but I'll see if any numbers look wrong.

    Small bets at long odds I think. Williams to make Q3, Alonso for pole, that sort of thing...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.

    You had to pass an entrance exam and interview though, before getting those offers.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,707
    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
    Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those too
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    Great stuff from Belgium
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.

    What pain?

    You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,707
    edited June 2018

    Further on uni grades.

    Andy Kershaw, the radio and music guy, tells a great anecdote in his autobiog. Having spent three years in early 1980s running student concerts at the legendary Leeds refec, he, obviously, failed his finals in political studies.

    He was very worried when the Vice Chancellor called him in to his office.

    To Kershaw's astonishment, the VC apologised for allowing him to become the only person, ever, to fail a degree in the politics and social studies department.

    He then went on to say, 'don't feel too down about it'. You've contributed massively to the life of the university over your time here and I am writing you a personal reference you can use to get a job.

    What days they were!!!

    Yes most of the 2.1s and below become the business leaders, celebrities, Cabinet members and City lawyers and bankers of tomorrow, the 1sts are more likely to become academics
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.

    What pain?

    You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?
    You're being obtuse. Right now we are part of a political entity called the EU and our economy is built around that. Imposing trade and regulatory barriers within that entity will break many existing activities.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,552

    Mr. B, it does seem remarkable that with so many configurations they managed to pick a bad one.

    To be fair, it’s not terrible at all (with the exception of the unnecessary chicane on the main straight). The cars/tyres are the problem this year - as Canada showed.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
    Indeed - but A level grades awarded pre-1989 under the system of Relative Marking cannot seriously be compared with those given under the Absolute Marking system which replaced it. A friend of mine got into Oxford in 1973 to study Modern Languages having obtained A Level grades of 2 Bs and a D - though in those days he had to pass the Entrance Exam.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:



    Checked the figures. Non eu trade is 33% of GDP for the UK and 35% for the EU as a whole So not a huge difference. Intra EU trade much higher for eurozone countries thanks to the EU breaking down barriers Brexit Britain wants to reinstate.

    Source: DG Trade statistical guide June 2018 p22

    No intra-EU trade is much higher for Eurozone nations for them physically bordering each other in a way we don't. For many EU nations trade going the distance of Edinburgh to London would class as INTRA-EU but it doesn't for us.
    The point is, less UK EU trade simply reflects our lower trade overall. It isn't because the EU is protectionist and holding us back. The opposite in fact.
    So we have a free trade agreement with the USA? Or China? Or Japan? In fact name one non-European nation with an economy larger than ours that we have a free trade agreement with.

    Or are you claiming free trade agreements don't matter, in which case why does our EU membership matter?

    Seems like you're trying to have your cake and eat it.
    The EU is not a free trade agreement. It’s an integrated internal market.
    Yet our proportion of trade with the EU has shrank year on year relative to the rest of the world. Funny that. Anyway do free trade agreements matter or not in your eyes?
    They matter, but multilateral agreements are much better if the aim is to increase overall trade
    And also, what you have to trade is more important. We can overcome any adverse effects of Brexit by becoming more productive, more creative and and just generally better at getting things done. Sadly the cheerleaders for Brexit don't inspire me with confidence that they are going to be any good at doing any of those things.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.

    What pain?

    You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?
    You're being obtuse. Right now we are part of a political entity called the EU and our economy is built around that. Imposing trade and regulatory barriers within that entity will break many existing activities.
    No you're being obtuse.

    You're claiming that we can't do any better than WTO terms with non-European nations with economies larger than ours. That breaking down barriers won't permit new activities. In which case why would going to WTO terms matter between us and France?

    Either WTO terms aren't good enough in which case we can make progress by moving away from WTO terms with non-European large economies or WTO terms are fine in which case we can go to them with Europe.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
    Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those too
    The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,707

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B, perhaps. I do agree with you about the chicane, though other races this year have been more entertaining than the last two.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to wait until I posted the pre-qualifying ramble, which is worth reading anyway just for the news, but I've backed the Red Bulls for pole at 15 (each way, third the odds top 2) each, splitting one stake equally (16 with boost). If it is wet, they may well be the fastest car. Even in the dry, they have a chance.

    Interesting Alonso suggestion. Odds?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
    Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those too
    The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    The recent trend towards their customers paying more for the experience, has led those same customers to have greater expectations of what comes out the other end of their courses?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,261
    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,707
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
    Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those too
    The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    Indeed and Hinds is pushing universities to curb grade inflation as the government has done for GCSEs and A Levels

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/education-44548322
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    edited June 2018
    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
    David Miliband was the son of a very prominent Politics Professor.

    In my part of the country three As were obligatory to get into Oxbridge.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Betting Post

    F1: pre-qualifying ramble is up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/06/france-pre-qualifying-2018.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
    He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,707
    edited June 2018

    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
    There is no London independence party like Sinn Fein or the SNP and certainly not one with seats in the London Assembly though no doubt some hard Brexiteers would be fine getting rid of London too
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
    Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those too
    The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    There is also probably a pretty strong argument to justify graduates from several decades back seeking to have their own degrees regraded to reflect the massive inflation that has occured. People who emerged with 2.2s back in the 60s and 70s could be very confident of a good 2.1 today!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Anyway, got to be off. Qualifying starts at 3pm.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,707

    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
    He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.
    Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tell
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
    David Miliband was the son of a very prominent Politics Professor.

    In my part of the country three As were obligatory to get into Oxbridge.
    But if a student passed the Entrance Exam and interview he/she only needed to get 2 Es to be admitted!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,552
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    A very good article . However, he understates the extent of grade inflation because the analysis only begins with the early 1990s. By that thime there was already a great deal of inflation built into the system when compared to the 60s and 70s .In that earlier period circa 60% of students graduated with a 2.2 and Third class degrees were much common than Firsts.At many Russell Group universities , discursive subjects such as English - History - Politics - Philosophy et al saw no Firsts awarded in most academic years.
    It used to be possible to get into Oxbridge with Bs, Cs and Ds at A-Level. For example David Miliband got 3 Bs and a D and gained admission to Oxford to study PPE.
    Blair got in with A B C I think, over 90% of Oxbridge A Level offers are now all As and a few A*s amongst those too
    The fact that universities don't seem to understand the very simple concept of grade inflation doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
    I think they understand it very well indeed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. B, perhaps. I do agree with you about the chicane, though other races this year have been more entertaining than the last two.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to wait until I posted the pre-qualifying ramble, which is worth reading anyway just for the news, but I've backed the Red Bulls for pole at 15 (each way, third the odds top 2) each, splitting one stake equally (16 with boost). If it is wet, they may well be the fastest car. Even in the dry, they have a chance.

    Interesting Alonso suggestion. Odds?

    Betfair’s very slow to get going, don’t think people want to lay anything if it’s unpredictable in the rain - and I’m still shut out of Ladbrokes after my British credit card expired. Might have to end up virtual betting on this one. :(
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,261
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
    He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.
    Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tell
    My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Today's Tesco Strawberry score is an increase to ten:

    Aberdeenshire
    Angus
    Perthshire
    Fife
    Nottinghamshire
    Staffordshire
    Norfolk
    Cambridgeshire
    Herefordshire
    Kent

    But the most interesting thing was the appearance of cherries from Kent.

    So that's British strawberries, raspberries, blackberries, blueberries and now cherries available.

    Are there any other types of fruit I should look out for ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.

    What pain?

    You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?
    You're being obtuse. Right now we are part of a political entity called the EU and our economy is built around that. Imposing trade and regulatory barriers within that entity will break many existing activities.
    No you're being obtuse.

    You're claiming that we can't do any better than WTO terms with non-European nations with economies larger than ours. That breaking down barriers won't permit new activities. In which case why would going to WTO terms matter between us and France?

    Either WTO terms aren't good enough in which case we can make progress by moving away from WTO terms with non-European large economies or WTO terms are fine in which case we can go to them with Europe.
    I didn't claim we can't do better than WTO terms with non-European nations, but Brexit certainly doesn't break down any barriers with them.

    If you imagined a utopia with no trade barriers globally whatsoever, it would look like a global version of the EU.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,552
    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, perhaps. I do agree with you about the chicane, though other races this year have been more entertaining than the last two.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to wait until I posted the pre-qualifying ramble, which is worth reading anyway just for the news, but I've backed the Red Bulls for pole at 15 (each way, third the odds top 2) each, splitting one stake equally (16 with boost). If it is wet, they may well be the fastest car. Even in the dry, they have a chance.

    Interesting Alonso suggestion. Odds?

    Betfair’s very slow to get going, don’t think people want to lay anything if it’s unpredictable in the rain - and I’m still shut out of Ladbrokes after my British credit card expired. Might have to end up virtual betting on this one. :(
    Done my betting on this one already.
    Backed Hamilton earlier in the week as a punt on the new engines, and layed the bet after FP2. I’ll be a contented spectator.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,261
    O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
    There might be support to kick out Scouseland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,707
    edited June 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
    He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.
    Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tell
    My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.
    Though the fact Unionist parties won 63% of the vote in the general election after Brexit in Scotland and the DUP has won both post Brexit elections in NI does not guarantee that in the same way the SNP winning over 50% of the vote in Scotland in 2017 post Brexit and Sinn Fein winning most NI Assembly seats and most MPs in 2017 would have done
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839

    O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.

    Tunisia are playing well
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Mr. B, perhaps. I do agree with you about the chicane, though other races this year have been more entertaining than the last two.

    Mr. Sandpit, I was going to wait until I posted the pre-qualifying ramble, which is worth reading anyway just for the news, but I've backed the Red Bulls for pole at 15 (each way, third the odds top 2) each, splitting one stake equally (16 with boost). If it is wet, they may well be the fastest car. Even in the dry, they have a chance.

    Interesting Alonso suggestion. Odds?

    Betfair’s very slow to get going, don’t think people want to lay anything if it’s unpredictable in the rain - and I’m still shut out of Ladbrokes after my British credit card expired. Might have to end up virtual betting on this one. :(
    Done my betting on this one already.
    Backed Hamilton earlier in the week as a punt on the new engines, and layed the bet after FP2. I’ll be a contented spectator.
    That’s a good call. He’s odds-on for pole and to win still (1.7 and 1.8 respectively), which if it’s going to be raining for the next two days is definitely too long.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967
    Belgium giving a lesson in how to convert chances.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,261
    Pulpstar said:

    O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.

    Tunisia are playing well
    You put a hex on them!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?
    That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.
    I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...
    I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.

    Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?
    That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.
    I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...
    I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.

    Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
    The idea that the public finances would be a £17bn deficit only this year in the counter-factual seems implausible on the face of it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Fair enough if you're honest about the reconfiguration of the economy it implies and the real pain it would inflict on many people's lives.

    What pain?

    You claimed that only political entities mattered and we'll be outside the political entity of France. Or were you wrong and there is a difference economically between WTO and non-WTO?
    You're being obtuse. Right now we are part of a political entity called the EU and our economy is built around that. Imposing trade and regulatory barriers within that entity will break many existing activities.
    No you're being obtuse.

    You're claiming that we can't do any better than WTO terms with non-European nations with economies larger than ours. That breaking down barriers won't permit new activities. In which case why would going to WTO terms matter between us and France?

    Either WTO terms aren't good enough in which case we can make progress by moving away from WTO terms with non-European large economies or WTO terms are fine in which case we can go to them with Europe.
    I didn't claim we can't do better than WTO terms with non-European nations, but Brexit certainly doesn't break down any barriers with them.

    If you imagined a utopia with no trade barriers globally whatsoever, it would look like a global version of the EU.
    No it would be more like a global version of the TPP. It wouldn't have a global Parliament setting global social laws.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    Lukaku a contender for the golden boot? Still got the English defence to come.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839

    Pulpstar said:

    O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.

    Tunisia are playing well
    You put a hex on them!

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?
    That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.
    I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...
    I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.

    Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
    It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more so
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
    He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.
    Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tell
    My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.
    Despite the SNP taking a major step backwards since 2015?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.

    Tunisia are playing well
    You put a hex on them!

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?
    That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.
    I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...
    I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.

    Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
    It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more so
    +1
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392


    My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.

    Possibly. It has certainly added additional pressures. On the plus side, if it does not, therefore, lead to the UK's breakup, then having gone through those pressures may make the union stronger, since if this didn't break it what will. In much the same way if Remain had won, I do not doubt that acceptance of further EU integration would have become easier. And if we ever rejoin (assuming they let us) I would argue we would need to be in all the way, Euro and everything, since if you're in, you're in.

    However, in both scenarios there would need to be due care taken to strengthen said unions taking account of the pressures the near leaving exacerbated, which is by no means a certainty.

    I would say Northern Ireland seems more immediately dangerous in terms of a break away - there are are lot of seemingly intractable issues, SF have been trying to reinvent themselves to be more cuddly over the past 10 years, and the EU will be exerting immense pressure to help Ireland in a settlement with the UK which might lead, intentionally or not, to a situation which leads to a breakaway sooner than expected.

    Scotland remains, though, the more likely in the medium to long term. The SNP remain strong, the outcome of the negotiations seem like they could throw up many issues which have the potential to convert people, and while unionist parties did well in the last elections things have been so up and down there nothing is guaranteed.

    Good old Wales though.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    DavidL said:

    Lukaku a contender for the golden boot? Still got the English defence to come.

    Yes -- Lukaku is joint top with Ronaldo on four goals, with England to come, as you say. But Harry Kane will not be afraid of the Belgian defence on this showing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    DavidL said:

    Lukaku a contender for the golden boot? Still got the English defence to come.

    I'm not playing but the fact he isn't on penalties is a negative
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753

    DavidL said:

    Lukaku a contender for the golden boot? Still got the English defence to come.

    Yes -- Lukaku is joint top with Ronaldo on four goals, with England to come, as you say. But Harry Kane will not be afraid of the Belgian defence on this showing.
    4-1 now. This is the team England squeezed past with an injury time winner. I agree their defence could be better but they are scary going forward.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    I heard Major speak at a private dinner at the time. He clearly had a lot of affection for “Helmut” who wanted to “anchor East Germany in western Europe” and none at all for “Mitterrand” “who “just wants a seat on the Bundesbank”
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 24,967

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
    He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.
    Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tell
    My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.
    Despite the SNP taking a major step backwards since 2015?
    Which was the opposite of what was predicted to happen upon a Leave vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,839
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Lukaku a contender for the golden boot? Still got the English defence to come.

    Yes -- Lukaku is joint top with Ronaldo on four goals, with England to come, as you say. But Harry Kane will not be afraid of the Belgian defence on this showing.
    4-1 now. This is the team England squeezed past with an injury time winner. I agree their defence could be better but they are scary going forward.
    Well they are missing a world class defender in Kompany at the moment. Tbh probably best they win today, they'll rest Kompany in the final match and probably Lukaku also. The worst result for England from this match would have been a win for Tunisia
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    They're progress compared with what went before but they apply between political entities, not within them. WTO rules are no more appropriate for trade between England and France than they are for trade between England and Scotland.

    England and Scotland are within the same political entity (the UK). We've voted to exit the EU so England and France are no more going to be within the same political entity as Beijing and Washington DC are.

    That's one of WGlenn's propaganda points though: that Brexit will lead to the breakup of the UK. So he has to keep repeating it.

    Without much evidence on post Brexit elections in Scotland and NI and ignoring the fact it would arguably strengthen Brexit to lose Remain voting Scotland and Northern Ireland and just leave Leave voting England and Wales
    Why not kick London out too, then you'll have a huge majority?
    He wasn't proposing kicking out Scotland and Northern Ireland.
    Indeed I even voted Remain and am a staunch Unionist in case you could not tell
    My response was clearly tongue-in-cheek. Brexit does though make the break-up of the UK much more likely imo.
    Despite the SNP taking a major step backwards since 2015?
    Which was the opposite of what was predicted to happen upon a Leave vote.
    Like the big fall in unemployment/surge in employment.
    Like the big fall in our deficit?

    It's almost as if the fearful predictions were wrong.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.

    Tunisia are playing well
    You put a hex on them!

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?
    That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.
    I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...
    I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.

    Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
    It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more so
    Indeed.
    I don't like the lack of error bars in the published estimate. It would have been better to say "Probably between £335-£545 million per week down, and very probably between £230-650 million per week"
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    New thread. And I am first.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    edited June 2018
    Pulpstar said:


    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?
    That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.
    I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...
    I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.

    Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
    It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more so
    Why ? It's reasonable to update your assumptions and hypotheses as more information becomes known, surely. In any case, John Springford is talking about costs that have already occurred against the counterfactuals, not costs he projects to occur. 2.1% GDP cost since Brexit is in the consensus. IIRC Mark Carney had a similar figure. This other expert challenges Springford's figures and claims a cost of only 1%, but he's at the optimistic end of opinion.

    My personal prediction is that people will put up with a long period of underperformance without noticing it. An Italy situation beckons for the UK.

    https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1010467760864931840
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    ...the increasingly stark choice of membership of a club it didn’t really want to be part of, or leaving a club it didn’t really want to be outside.

    And this is why I think the pragmatic, sensible, British compromise should be to leave the EU, but to negotiate membership of the Single Market and Customs Union. We would be out of the political federal state structures of the EU and back in the modern version of the Common Market we voted to stay in.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.

    Tunisia are playing well
    You put a hex on them!

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?
    That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.
    I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...
    I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.

    Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
    It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more so
    Indeed.
    I don't like the lack of error bars in the published estimate. It would have been better to say "Probably between £335-£545 million per week down, and very probably between £230-650 million per week"
    Hang on - is the analysis really that it is ALREADY costing us £440m/week to the public finances?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    O/T Belgium v.Tunisia looks like it is a good game.

    Tunisia are playing well
    You put a hex on them!

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Unless he has a parallel universe in which the UK did not leave the EU, I'm not sure how seriously to take him. It's costing the treasury £440mn a week, yet borrowing figures at at their best in 13 years?
    That'll be why he is using the world 'estimate'. Like cosmology no counter example experiment in economics can ever precisely take place. But I'm sure he does his best.
    I think I'll file this with all the other economic forecasts...
    I quite like the control method he chose. Rather ingenious and comparatively quite plausible.

    Then again, I went and read it; from most of the comments above, people have just dismissed or accepted it based on what they prefer to believe.
    It's plausible but if he'd chosen the methodology pre referendum it'd be more so
    Indeed.
    I don't like the lack of error bars in the published estimate. It would have been better to say "Probably between £335-£545 million per week down, and very probably between £230-650 million per week"
    Hang on - is the analysis really that it is ALREADY costing us £440m/week to the public finances?
    It is that we're 2.1% of GDP below where we should have been (and where a "virtual UK", composed of a blend of other countries, which tracked our pre-Brexit growth pattern closely) has ended up - with a 0.5% of GDP standard deviation. This leads to lower tax take, to the tune of about £440 million per week (or, in my preferred 2sd error margins), between £230 million and £650 million per week.
  • MrFMrF Posts: 2
    If Maastricht is the root of antiEU sentiment, then why don't we join the EEA? We already had the four freedoms in place pre Maastricht. I think the article really misses the point. What has done for the EU is the expansion to the East and free movement. That together with the press blaming everything on immigrants creates a perfect storm of ignorance, and the UK is procrastinating over how to commit economic suicide.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    The Ant-Brexit March was impressive. It was the largest one since the referendum. Not much sign that the issue is settled.
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