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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Speaker cornered. Time for John Bercow to stand down as Speake

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204
    The next thread contains the greatest headline in PB history if not the history of the internet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,216
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good to see the referee’s finally calling the rugby tackling in the penalty area...

    It's so blatant even the refs cannot ignore it in this one.
    Worse than this one ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/44581546
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,216

    The next thread contains the greatest headline in PB history if not the history of the internet.

    The return of the hornets’ nest, but with added puns ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    edited June 2018
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good to see the referee’s finally calling the rugby tackling in the penalty area...

    It's so blatant even the refs cannot ignore it in this one.
    Worse than this one ?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/44581546
    No, but happening to multiple players, multiple times in the half, rather than a one off. Plus that one probably meant the refs were warned they had to look more closely. (Actually the second penalty was probably near as bad - full blooded wrestle, with a blow to the back of the neck as Kane was brought down too)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,216
    edited June 2018
    kle4 said:

    The football team seem to be taking the cricket team's fortune away from them!

    Just as well we bat deep.... chasing 205.

    But with something in the pitch, Stanlake looks very useful indeed.

    Four down...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Corner, penalty, goal, free-kick, penalty...?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    Keep the ball in their box and VAR will keep giving us penalties......
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2018

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Belgium on Thursday.

    Here are the permutations now for who makes the last 16. Germany's group is just lets say - complicated!

    https://www.bundesliga.com/en/news/Bundesliga/russia-2018-fifa-world-cup-permutations-last-16-qualification-507579.jsp
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Blegium on Thursday.
    The defenders will certainly have more to do.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,562

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Someone will say the EU don't need to because they are stronger, but if it is a negotiation it involves give and take, even if one side takes more than the other. If they are to make no concessions then it isn't a negotiation, and if everything is treated as a redline by supporters that is ridiculous. It is silly to rely on the UK simply capitulating. Sure it might happen, but it might also simply be politically impossible for it to do so.
    And in the age of Trump is it wise to have a hostile resentful “Third Country” as your largest trading partner?
    Good point. Better to aim for complete capitulation than let Britain fester in the mediocrity of Brexit. ;)
    In all seriousness even if that were the better option, and no deal is much worse, I don't see how total capitulation is possible. Hence why no deal is looking more plausible than a deal, since capitulation is being demanded in some areas(in fairness since we cannot agree what to ask for, why wouldn't that be the demand).
    I think Mr Glenn believes voters will go “Airbus threats or Big Issue sellers” and opt for the Big Issue sellers....despite the polling....
    Voters will be too busy celebrating our World Cup win to care about abandoning Brexit. :lol:
    If England win the EU will issue a press release "EU wins World Cup."
    If when England lose it will be Brexit loses....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,140
    edited June 2018
    Sandpit said:

    I’m sure we can reinitiate the old guest worker program if it’s required.

    The problem with this line of thinking is that it assumes that your government is competent enough to work out what's required and do it. It generally isn't. This isn't just snark - governments generally aren't very good at working out how much of things you need and making sure it's delivered.

    This happens even when you'd think they have quite strong incentives to get it right; For example, Japanese voters presumably would rather they were able to buy butter when they want to, but the government manages how much of it people are allowed to import, and every now they don't let in enough and we run out. It'll be even worse when the link with things the voters care about is more indirect, as it is with making sure you have the right people to do a job.
  • brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Belgium on Thursday.

    Here are the permutations now for who makes the last 16. Germany's group is just lets say - complicated!

    https://www.bundesliga.com/en/news/Bundesliga/russia-2018-fifa-world-cup-permutations-last-16-qualification-507579.jsp
    Thanks for the link. See what you mean about Germany
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,216

    Sandpit said:

    I’m sure we can reinitiate the old guest worker program if it’s required.

    The problem with this line of thinking is that it assumes that your government is competent enough to work out what's required and do it. It generally isn't. This isn't just snark - governments generally aren't very good at working out how much of things you need and making sure it's delivered.

    This happens even when you'd think they have quite strong incentives to get it right; For example, Japanese voters presumably would rather they were able to buy butter when they want to, but the government manages how much of it people are allowed to import, and every now they don't let in enough and we run out. It'll be even worse when the link with things the voters care about is more indirect, as it is with making sure you have the right people to do a job.
    And what just happened over there with Airbnb ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,216
    brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Belgium on Thursday...
    I only watch football at world cups, but it does seem to me that England display basic skills more or less absent in previous ones (irrespective of the opposition).
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,904
    edited June 2018
    Nigelb said:

    brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Belgium on Thursday...
    I only watch football at world cups, but it does seem to me that England display basic skills more or less absent in previous ones (irrespective of the opposition).
    It is the first time in my memory that I have seen England playing like a team rather than a collection of individuals. I still think the defence will struggle against better opposition but it is fun while it lasts.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    kle4 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Blegium on Thursday.
    The defenders will certainly have more to do.
    So will Belgium's.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564

    Nigelb said:

    brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Belgium on Thursday...
    I only watch football at world cups, but it does seem to me that England display basic skills more or less absent in previous ones (irrespective of the opposition).
    It is the fist time in my memory that I have seen England playing like a team rather than a collection of individuals. I still think the defence will struggle against better opposition but it is fun while it lasts.
    I cannot wait for the inevitable talk that England fans are getting carried away, despite almost all the commentary being along the lines you lay out.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,140
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    I’m sure we can reinitiate the old guest worker program if it’s required.

    The problem with this line of thinking is that it assumes that your government is competent enough to work out what's required and do it. It generally isn't. This isn't just snark - governments generally aren't very good at working out how much of things you need and making sure it's delivered.

    This happens even when you'd think they have quite strong incentives to get it right; For example, Japanese voters presumably would rather they were able to buy butter when they want to, but the government manages how much of it people are allowed to import, and every now they don't let in enough and we run out. It'll be even worse when the link with things the voters care about is more indirect, as it is with making sure you have the right people to do a job.
    And what just happened over there with Airbnb ?
    Yup, that one seems like classic regulatory capture. Jake Adelstein has the sordid details: https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-did-japan-suddenly-kill-thousands-of-airbnb-reservations
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Belgium on Thursday.

    Here are the permutations now for who makes the last 16. Germany's group is just lets say - complicated!

    https://www.bundesliga.com/en/news/Bundesliga/russia-2018-fifa-world-cup-permutations-last-16-qualification-507579.jsp
    The Belgium game will tell us nothing. Here's the thing. Germany's shaky start means they now look like playing Brazil, and whoever wins that will play the winner of our group (assuming we get through the round of 16). The second in our group, as things stand, would be looking at the less frightening Switzerland and Mexico. Of course, things may change and I could have it wrong anyway but that is what every coach in Russia will be thinking about: do they want to win the third match?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,216

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    I’m sure we can reinitiate the old guest worker program if it’s required.

    The problem with this line of thinking is that it assumes that your government is competent enough to work out what's required and do it. It generally isn't. This isn't just snark - governments generally aren't very good at working out how much of things you need and making sure it's delivered.

    This happens even when you'd think they have quite strong incentives to get it right; For example, Japanese voters presumably would rather they were able to buy butter when they want to, but the government manages how much of it people are allowed to import, and every now they don't let in enough and we run out. It'll be even worse when the link with things the voters care about is more indirect, as it is with making sure you have the right people to do a job.
    And what just happened over there with Airbnb ?
    Yup, that one seems like classic regulatory capture. Jake Adelstein has the sordid details: https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-did-japan-suddenly-kill-thousands-of-airbnb-reservations
    Isn’t Japan hosting some fairly significant sporting event in 2020... ?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,216

    Nigelb said:

    brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Belgium on Thursday...
    I only watch football at world cups, but it does seem to me that England display basic skills more or less absent in previous ones (irrespective of the opposition).
    It is the first time in my memory that I have seen England playing like a team rather than a collection of individuals. I still think the defence will struggle against better opposition but it is fun while it lasts.
    You might have a point....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087
    Now we need another goal to finish top of the group on a draw with Belgium.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,087

    kle4 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Blegium on Thursday.
    The defenders will certainly have more to do.
    So will Belgium's.
    Harry Kane is going to relish taking on Belgium's defenders.....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,140
    Nigelb said:


    Isn’t Japan hosting some fairly significant sporting event in 2020... ?

    Right, so this is the thing. There are big central government campaigns to increase the amount of accomodation, and also improve tourist infrastructure and service - they're always going on about "おもてなし", which sort-of means "hospitality". But it doesn't matter what one bit of the government (in this case the Prime Minister) want if the part responsible for implementing wants something else.

    Immigration is particularly bad here, because the need and the supply are so distant; At least the Japanese National Tourist Agency does actually want to encourage tourism, whereas it's of close to zero interest to the Home Office whether a hospital has the doctors they need, and even less what happens to some farmer's raspberries.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,216

    Nigelb said:


    Isn’t Japan hosting some fairly significant sporting event in 2020... ?

    Right, so this is the thing. There are big central government campaigns to increase the amount of accomodation, and also improve tourist infrastructure and service - they're always going on about "おもてなし", which sort-of means "hospitality". But it doesn't matter what one bit of the government (in this case the Prime Minister) want if the part responsible for implementing wants something else.

    Immigration is particularly bad here, because the need and the supply are so distant; At least the Japanese National Tourist Agency does actually want to encourage tourism, whereas it's of close to zero interest to the Home Office whether a hospital has the doctors they need, and even less what happens to some farmer's raspberries.
    Interesting contrast with S Korea, which previously was equally unwelcoming to immigration. That seems to have changed significantly in the last decade.

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    kle4 said:

    brendan16 said:

    Calm down everybody.

    It's not coming home.

    We're playing Panama, it is like getting excited about beating Australia in a one dayer.

    Now is the optimal time to lay England for the World Cup.

    It will be interesting to see how they do against a quality team like Blegium on Thursday.
    The defenders will certainly have more to do.
    So will Belgium's.
    Harry Kane is going to relish taking on Belgium's defenders.....
    Especially as two are his team mates and he will want bragging rights in the changing room.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    In all my history of watching England matches there has never been a performance like this. Not even against other weaker opposition like Costa Rica last time.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,140
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:


    Isn’t Japan hosting some fairly significant sporting event in 2020... ?

    Right, so this is the thing. There are big central government campaigns to increase the amount of accomodation, and also improve tourist infrastructure and service - they're always going on about "おもてなし", which sort-of means "hospitality". But it doesn't matter what one bit of the government (in this case the Prime Minister) want if the part responsible for implementing wants something else.

    Immigration is particularly bad here, because the need and the supply are so distant; At least the Japanese National Tourist Agency does actually want to encourage tourism, whereas it's of close to zero interest to the Home Office whether a hospital has the doctors they need, and even less what happens to some farmer's raspberries.
    Interesting contrast with S Korea, which previously was equally unwelcoming to immigration. That seems to have changed significantly in the last decade.

    Sorry, by "here" I meant "in this case", we've had the same change in Japan - lots of people are now getting visas for low-skilled jobs (they dress them up as "trainee" positions but nobody's fooled). It's quite a visible change in just a few years; Not long ago you'd hardly ever see a foreigner working in a MacDonalds or a 7-11, now in central Tokyo it's nearly all foreign.

    It's produced a kind-of adorable 1970s-era Japanese movie vibe, they get really into the Japanese mannerisms that young Japanese people can't be arsed with.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    MaxPB said:

    In all my history of watching England matches there has never been a performance like this. Not even against other weaker opposition like Costa Rica last time.

    I remember Eng verus NL in Euro 96. Great performance.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    We’re a proper team and it’s great to see. There’s a togetherness we’ve not had in years, we can play with pace and we have some lovely movement. I just don’t think our defence is quite there.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Really weird watching England without feeling any kind of stress. Glad to get out of the group after what happened in 2014, hopefully we can at least draw against Belgium though. They’ve looked pretty good so far - unlike their previous tournament outings (a bit like us then)!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,833

    MaxPB said:

    In all my history of watching England matches there has never been a performance like this. Not even against other weaker opposition like Costa Rica last time.

    I remember Eng verus NL in Euro 96. Great performance.
    The match that both teams would go through if it were a 0-0 draw, and everyone expected that boring game...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,216

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:


    Isn’t Japan hosting some fairly significant sporting event in 2020... ?

    Right, so this is the thing. There are big central government campaigns to increase the amount of accomodation, and also improve tourist infrastructure and service - they're always going on about "おもてなし", which sort-of means "hospitality". But it doesn't matter what one bit of the government (in this case the Prime Minister) want if the part responsible for implementing wants something else.

    Immigration is particularly bad here, because the need and the supply are so distant; At least the Japanese National Tourist Agency does actually want to encourage tourism, whereas it's of close to zero interest to the Home Office whether a hospital has the doctors they need, and even less what happens to some farmer's raspberries.
    Interesting contrast with S Korea, which previously was equally unwelcoming to immigration. That seems to have changed significantly in the last decade.

    Sorry, by "here" I meant "in this case", we've had the same change in Japan - lots of people are now getting visas for low-skilled jobs (they dress them up as "trainee" positions but nobody's fooled). It's quite a visible change in just a few years; Not long ago you'd hardly ever see a foreigner working in a MacDonalds or a 7-11, now in central Tokyo it's nearly all foreign.

    It's produced a kind-of adorable 1970s-era Japanese movie vibe, they get really into the Japanese mannerisms that young Japanese people can't be arsed with.
    Interesting. Japan is top of my countries I want to visit but haven’t had the time/money/opportunity.

    Korea has been particularly accommodating to immigration providing wives for farmers, apparently.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606

    MaxPB said:

    In all my history of watching England matches there has never been a performance like this. Not even against other weaker opposition like Costa Rica last time.

    I remember Eng verus NL in Euro 96. Great performance.
    That was at home and against a bigger team when we tend to be okay. Usually when we play the smaller sides we labour to a horrible draw with a last minute goal conceded.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,833

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:


    Isn’t Japan hosting some fairly significant sporting event in 2020... ?

    Right, so this is the thing. There are big central government campaigns to increase the amount of accomodation, and also improve tourist infrastructure and service - they're always going on about "おもてなし", which sort-of means "hospitality". But it doesn't matter what one bit of the government (in this case the Prime Minister) want if the part responsible for implementing wants something else.

    Immigration is particularly bad here, because the need and the supply are so distant; At least the Japanese National Tourist Agency does actually want to encourage tourism, whereas it's of close to zero interest to the Home Office whether a hospital has the doctors they need, and even less what happens to some farmer's raspberries.
    Interesting contrast with S Korea, which previously was equally unwelcoming to immigration. That seems to have changed significantly in the last decade.

    Sorry, by "here" I meant "in this case", we've had the same change in Japan - lots of people are now getting visas for low-skilled jobs (they dress them up as "trainee" positions but nobody's fooled). It's quite a visible change in just a few years; Not long ago you'd hardly ever see a foreigner working in a MacDonalds or a 7-11, now in central Tokyo it's nearly all foreign.

    It's produced a kind-of adorable 1970s-era Japanese movie vibe, they get really into the Japanese mannerisms that young Japanese people can't be arsed with.
    Interesting. Are these immigrants people who could be Japanese in a few years, or strictly guest workers as we see in the Middle East?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,140
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:


    Isn’t Japan hosting some fairly significant sporting event in 2020... ?

    Right, so this is the thing. There are big central government campaigns to increase the amount of accomodation, and also improve tourist infrastructure and service - they're always going on about "おもてなし", which sort-of means "hospitality". But it doesn't matter what one bit of the government (in this case the Prime Minister) want if the part responsible for implementing wants something else.

    Immigration is particularly bad here, because the need and the supply are so distant; At least the Japanese National Tourist Agency does actually want to encourage tourism, whereas it's of close to zero interest to the Home Office whether a hospital has the doctors they need, and even less what happens to some farmer's raspberries.
    Interesting contrast with S Korea, which previously was equally unwelcoming to immigration. That seems to have changed significantly in the last decade.

    Sorry, by "here" I meant "in this case", we've had the same change in Japan - lots of people are now getting visas for low-skilled jobs (they dress them up as "trainee" positions but nobody's fooled). It's quite a visible change in just a few years; Not long ago you'd hardly ever see a foreigner working in a MacDonalds or a 7-11, now in central Tokyo it's nearly all foreign.

    It's produced a kind-of adorable 1970s-era Japanese movie vibe, they get really into the Japanese mannerisms that young Japanese people can't be arsed with.
    Interesting. Japan is top of my countries I want to visit but haven’t had the time/money/opportunity.

    Korea has been particularly accommodating to immigration providing wives for farmers, apparently.

    Yes, that's also something that's been easy in Japan even way back when; There's a lot less dicking people around over family visas than in Britain (which I think is now almost uniquely terrible) and it's not that unusual for men in rural Japan to get married to girls from south-east Asia.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,204

    NEW THREAD

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,140
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting. Are these immigrants people who could be Japanese in a few years, or strictly guest workers as we see in the Middle East?

    Not many people become Japanese, not least because there's no dual nationality. Mostly these people are on short-term visas that pretend they're trainees, so they can only stay a few years on that category. But in practice once they live somewhere people will often create a different relationship (spouse, different kind of employee etc) and stick around.
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