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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s big deal: the Supreme Court

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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    In case anyone else missed this overnight. Farage being investigated by Robert Mueller’s team.
    https://hillreporter.com/mueller-probe-is-now-eyeing-pro-brexit-ukip-member-nigel-farage-3209

    Not before time.....
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,209
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn was quite clear on Thursday night he opposed a second referendum and also that a significant minority of Labour voters voted Leave
    This would be the politically advantageous position to be taking even if he planned to support a second referendum, because the way to keep everybody in the tent is to be non-committal throughout the negotiation then be shocked, shocked at how terrible the ultimate deal is and how it betrays the hard-working British voters who set a clear democratic mandate for having cake and eating it.
    That still does not mean Corbyn would back a referendum even after any deal especially as staying in the EU and reversing the Leave vote means staying in the single market which he is ideologically opposed too and keeping free movement which working class Leave voters in Labour Leave seats oppose
    Perhaps Momentum will have to bring him down and replace him with a Remainer-lefty.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,715

    In case anyone else missed this overnight. Farage being investigated by Robert Mueller’s team.

    https://hillreporter.com/mueller-probe-is-now-eyeing-pro-brexit-ukip-member-nigel-farage-3209

    "If Mueller and his team expose Farage, Banks, and others involved in Brexit, it could shine further light on the global implications of Russia meddling in elections and important social issues around the world."

    Two events that benefited Russia and Farage was involved in both.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn was quite clear on Thursday night he opposed a second referendum and also that a significant minority of Labour voters voted Leave
    This would be the politically advantageous position to be taking even if he planned to support a second referendum, because the way to keep everybody in the tent is to be non-committal throughout the negotiation then be shocked, shocked at how terrible the ultimate deal is and how it betrays the hard-working British voters who set a clear democratic mandate for having cake and eating it.
    That still does not mean Corbyn would back a referendum even after any deal especially as staying in the EU and reversing the Leave vote means staying in the single market which he is ideologically opposed too and keeping free movement which working class Leave voters in Labour Leave seats oppose
    Perhaps Momentum will have to bring him down and replace him with a Remainer-lefty.
    The EU or Socialism? Decisions, decisions....
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Alistair said:

    Yorkcity said:

    At the way things are going in the US Dem voters should start inquiring how to move to Canada. I don’t see Trump’s nominee not getting confirmed.

    Surely it is not getting to The Handmaid's Tale type territory ?
    Funny you should mention that

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/28/us/amy-coney-barrett-nominee-religion.html

    Obviously the role of handmaids is different here but you know...
    Thanks for the link Alistair , really interesting.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2018
    Alistair said:

    Yorkcity said:

    At the way things are going in the US Dem voters should start inquiring how to move to Canada. I don’t see Trump’s nominee not getting confirmed.

    Surely it is not getting to The Handmaid's Tale type territory ?
    Funny you should mention that

    https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/28/us/amy-coney-barrett-nominee-religion.html

    Obviously the role of handmaids is different here but you know...
    I have a feeling she’ll be Trump’s nominee. 46 as well, so she’ll be there for a long time. Plus, as someone said on twitter those Republicans will love it if it’s a woman to bring down Roe v Wade.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @rottenborough I just saw that earlier this morning on my timeline. Very interesting development....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,414
    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,277

    [snip].

    On Roe, I think TSE's point is right. There will not be an outright reversal but it will be eroded at the state level, which most Republicans control

    Never underestimate the capacity of the Supreme Court to come up with a shocker, particularly on a contentious issue, and particularly when there's the possibility of a cadre of judges getting into a form of group confirmation bias and reinforcing - and taking further - each others' opinions.

    I'm sure I don't need to cite the worst example but it's not the only such one.
    I still shudder at the Dred Scott case.
    I shuddered at the Judge Dredd case in 1995....
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    Extra time and penalties.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,277

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    Difficult - consider: "Las Malvinas" originated from the French name "Malouines", meaning from St. Malo.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I hope France win.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    I hope France win.

    Why?! Do you really not like Messi that much!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    edited June 2018
    Leclerc is going to take a penalty for a new gearbox, and Verstappen’s car is in a race to make qualifying as they fix an electrical gremlin that caused his car to cut out at the end of P3.

    Bottas e/w for pole is still looking good.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Because handing a box of matches to a small child, declaring that fresh leadership is required to deal with the resulting fire, and swanning off to the shepherd's hut to write your memoirs is in no way culpable behaviour.

    Thank god Dave was "rather good" at his job. Look where he has left us, and think how much worse things could have been if he'd been a bit crap.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    Red cards and injuries ?
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    I hope France win.

    Why?! Do you really not like Messi that much!
    I like Messi, but that’s not enough to stem my dislike of Argentina (the team, I don’t dislike the country). I’ve never really disliked the French team that much, although I did think their implosion in 2010 was hilarious.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    Red cards and injuries ?
    If Argentina and Portugal both win we get a Messi vs Ronaldo showdown in the next round.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Because handing a box of matches to a small child, declaring that fresh leadership is required to deal with the resulting fire, and swanning off to the shepherd's hut to write your memoirs is in no way culpable behaviour.

    Thank god Dave was "rather good" at his job. Look where he has left us, and think how much worse things could have been if he'd been a bit crap.
    The irony of George Osborne telling others to take responsibility is rather choice.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    edited June 2018

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    Neither , support Portugal , the only country we have not been to war with.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991
    edited June 2018

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    Well we have fought more wars against France but our most recent war was against Argentina and Argentina still likely pose a bigger military threat to us than France over the Falklands. Though then again France are the biggest proponents of giving us a bad Brexit deal if any deal at all and the French are least sorry of any EU nation we are leaving the EU and vetoed our EEC entry in the first place. I suppose we just have to wait until if the winner plays Portugal, our oldest ally
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,115
    You'd think he'd have more to worry about, what with the Evening Standard going down the tubes, than being a trolling wanker....
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,076

    You'd think he'd have more to worry about, what with the Evening Standard going down the tubes, than being a trolling wanker....
    Does he realise its going down the tubes ?

    Spending more money than you're earning is normal experience in Osborne world.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,277

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Because handing a box of matches to a small child, declaring that fresh leadership is required to deal with the resulting fire, and swanning off to the shepherd's hut to write your memoirs is in no way culpable behaviour.

    Thank god Dave was "rather good" at his job. Look where he has left us, and think how much worse things could have been if he'd been a bit crap.
    The irony of George Osborne telling others to take responsibility is rather choice.
    "Because I have one of the greatest jobs in the solar system. As long as freedom of movement keeps flowing, I can do anything I want. Anything! In fact, the only thing I worry about is, one day, if the Leavers win, it all might end. And you're F***KING MAKING IT HAPPEN! First, you gave the Leavers their Referendum and then you let them win it!"
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Because handing a box of matches to a small child, declaring that fresh leadership is required to deal with the resulting fire, and swanning off to the shepherd's hut to write your memoirs is in no way culpable behaviour.

    Thank god Dave was "rather good" at his job. Look where he has left us, and think how much worse things could have been if he'd been a bit crap.
    The irony of George Osborne telling others to take responsibility is rather choice.
    Well quite. He prefers getting paid to snipe from the sidelines to actually being involved in government.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584
    HYUFD said:

    Great article. The consequence of a Supreme Court decisively committed to prioritising state level authority will be to make the USA less united as its states go in radically different directions. I doubt that is something its advocates would welcome.

    Indeed, though Mississippi is culturally and economically as far apart from Massachusetts in the USA as Poland is from the Netherlands in the EU
    Except that they speak, more or less, the same language.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    A brawl?
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    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Topical joke on R4 Dead Ringers : "Boris" saying "When the going gets tough, the toffs get going..."
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    edited June 2018
    OchEye said:

    Topical joke on R4 Dead Ringers : "Boris" saying "When the going gets tough, the toffs get going..."

    Mock The Week had a very funny caption competition, with a photo of Boris on the back of a motorbike.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    Its football, so France. If it were rugby then it would be the Argies.

    And if it were a war then hope for a high scoring draw.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Because handing a box of matches to a small child, declaring that fresh leadership is required to deal with the resulting fire, and swanning off to the shepherd's hut to write your memoirs is in no way culpable behaviour.

    Thank god Dave was "rather good" at his job. Look where he has left us, and think how much worse things could have been if he'd been a bit crap.
    The irony of George Osborne telling others to take responsibility is rather choice.
    Well quite. He prefers getting paid to snipe from the sidelines to actually being involved in government.
    To be fair to the worst chancellor since Philip Snowden, others *may* have had a hand in Osborne's dismissal from government.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    edited June 2018

    Sandpit said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Because handing a box of matches to a small child, declaring that fresh leadership is required to deal with the resulting fire, and swanning off to the shepherd's hut to write your memoirs is in no way culpable behaviour.

    Thank god Dave was "rather good" at his job. Look where he has left us, and think how much worse things could have been if he'd been a bit crap.
    The irony of George Osborne telling others to take responsibility is rather choice.
    Well quite. He prefers getting paid to snipe from the sidelines to actually being involved in government.
    To be fair to the worst chancellor since Philip Snowden, others *may* have had a hand in Osborne's dismissal from government.
    Michael Gove showed the correct way to react to that situation. No-one forced George to be a class A c***
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Sandpit said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Because handing a box of matches to a small child, declaring that fresh leadership is required to deal with the resulting fire, and swanning off to the shepherd's hut to write your memoirs is in no way culpable behaviour.

    Thank god Dave was "rather good" at his job. Look where he has left us, and think how much worse things could have been if he'd been a bit crap.
    The irony of George Osborne telling others to take responsibility is rather choice.
    Well quite. He prefers getting paid to snipe from the sidelines to actually being involved in government.
    To be fair to the worst chancellor since Philip Snowden, others *may* have had a hand in Osborne's dismissal from government.
    Your defence of Gordon Brown is comical.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334
    Mmm. The thing is, Momentum doesn't really have a recognised purpose except as an electoral organisation to promote the left within Labour and Labour in elections. Nobody joins Momentum because they've contemplated their programme (do we have one? I'm a member and I've not seen it) - we joined to help strengthen the movement backbone. I can't see Corbyn being especially influenced by the views of Momentum's executive unless he wants to be - there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership. Cf. what happened to Lansman's candidacy when Corbyn disagreed with it.
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    FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Never had it so good. My children have heard that there's a shortage of lettuce, broccoli and cauliflower
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,304
    George does have a point. It's extraordinary how the Leave movement has evolved. It's no longer concerned with why Brexit will be great but why it will be crap and who's to blame.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334
    By the way, did anyone else watch the final The Bridge episode last night? Such a wonderful, delicate, nuanced series with a perfectly-balanced ending.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057

    Mmm. The thing is, Momentum doesn't really have a recognised purpose except as an electoral organisation to promote the left within Labour and Labour in elections. Nobody joins Momentum because they've contemplated their programme (do we have one? I'm a member and I've not seen it) - we joined to help strengthen the movement backbone. I can't see Corbyn being especially influenced by the views of Momentum's executive unless he wants to be - there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership. Cf. what happened to Lansman's candidacy when Corbyn disagreed with it.
    Unite are also running an opinion poll to see if they should campaign for a second referendum.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,057

    George does have a point. It's extraordinary how the Leave movement has evolved. It's no longer concerned with why Brexit will be great but why it will be crap and who's to blame.

    It would have been such a brilliant Brexit if only Cameron had delivered it. :lol:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1012626687845175298
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584

    Having observed SCOTUS quite closely in my little area for the last 15 years, the role that the justice’s clerks play in selecting and then deciding cases should not be underestimated.

    Not to mention that all those in the running for the current nomination have clerked for on or other of the conservative justices.

    The Supreme Court has been, almost since its inception, a political institution, and although it is habit for justices to pay lip service to judicial impartiality, the only decisions which are not nakedly political in controversial cases are those where there is not a clear cut majority.

    That Trump might be able to cement a conservative majority in the court, potentially for decades, having been elected on a minority of the popular vote, and confirmed by a Republican Senate which represents an even smaller percentage of the electorate, is going to be subject of furious controversy for the foreseeable future.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990

    Mmm. The thing is, Momentum doesn't really have a recognised purpose except as an electoral organisation to promote the left within Labour and Labour in elections. Nobody joins Momentum because they've contemplated their programme (do we have one? I'm a member and I've not seen it) - we joined to help strengthen the movement backbone. I can't see Corbyn being especially influenced by the views of Momentum's executive unless he wants to be - there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership. Cf. what happened to Lansman's candidacy when Corbyn disagreed with it.
    "...there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership."

    So it's a personality cult?

    Perhaps you should consider what that means for the party, and whether it's healthy for internal party and national democracy.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,991

    Mmm. The thing is, Momentum doesn't really have a recognised purpose except as an electoral organisation to promote the left within Labour and Labour in elections. Nobody joins Momentum because they've contemplated their programme (do we have one? I'm a member and I've not seen it) - we joined to help strengthen the movement backbone. I can't see Corbyn being especially influenced by the views of Momentum's executive unless he wants to be - there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership. Cf. what happened to Lansman's candidacy when Corbyn disagreed with it.
    You must be quite unique NP in being a Momentum member who was also a Blair loyalist?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    I wonder how much “wine” Maradona has got through already today?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584
    HYUFD said:

    Mmm. The thing is, Momentum doesn't really have a recognised purpose except as an electoral organisation to promote the left within Labour and Labour in elections. Nobody joins Momentum because they've contemplated their programme (do we have one? I'm a member and I've not seen it) - we joined to help strengthen the movement backbone. I can't see Corbyn being especially influenced by the views of Momentum's executive unless he wants to be - there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership. Cf. what happened to Lansman's candidacy when Corbyn disagreed with it.
    You must be quite unique NP in being a Momentum member who was also a Blair loyalist?
    If one were being cruel, one might refer to the Vicar of Bray - though of course in Nick’s position there is no question of self-interest.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Nigelb said:

    Having observed SCOTUS quite closely in my little area for the last 15 years, the role that the justice’s clerks play in selecting and then deciding cases should not be underestimated.

    Not to mention that all those in the running for the current nomination have clerked for on or other of the conservative justices.

    The Supreme Court has been, almost since its inception, a political institution, and although it is habit for justices to pay lip service to judicial impartiality, the only decisions which are not nakedly political in controversial cases are those where there is not a clear cut majority.

    That Trump might be able to cement a conservative majority in the court, potentially for decades, having been elected on a minority of the popular vote, and confirmed by a Republican Senate which represents an even smaller percentage of the electorate, is going to be subject of furious controversy for the foreseeable future.
    The claim that Roberts cares about how the court is seen among Americans has always had me rolling my eyes, but never as much as this week.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Time for the alien vs predator game...think I will just making a boo-ing noise for 90 minutes.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    edited June 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Bottas e/w for pole is still looking good.
    Ahem! ;)
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584

    Nigelb said:

    Having observed SCOTUS quite closely in my little area for the last 15 years, the role that the justice’s clerks play in selecting and then deciding cases should not be underestimated.

    Not to mention that all those in the running for the current nomination have clerked for on or other of the conservative justices.

    The Supreme Court has been, almost since its inception, a political institution, and although it is habit for justices to pay lip service to judicial impartiality, the only decisions which are not nakedly political in controversial cases are those where there is not a clear cut majority.

    That Trump might be able to cement a conservative majority in the court, potentially for decades, having been elected on a minority of the popular vote, and confirmed by a Republican Senate which represents an even smaller percentage of the electorate, is going to be subject of furious controversy for the foreseeable future.
    The claim that Roberts cares about how the court is seen among Americans has always had me rolling my eyes, but never as much as this week.
    It is a mark of how far right the court will shift with Kennedy’s retirement that Roberts is now being considered as the ‘swing vote’.
    If RBG retires, then it will get ugly.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leclerc is going to take a penalty for a new gearbox, and Verstappen’s car is in a race to make qualifying as they fix an electrical gremlin that caused his car to cut out at the end of P3.

    Bottas e/w for pole is still looking good.
    Ahem! ;)
    Congratulations are surely superfluous.
    :smile:
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    OT Kirsten Gillibrand advocating abolishing ICE:
    https://broadly.vice.com/en_us/article/8xezqg/kirsten-gillibrand-first-sitting-senator-to-call-to-abolish-ice

    Bernie Sanders was asked about it and just waffled, and the left is narked off at him.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Thousands of people have marched through London to mark the NHS’s 70th anniversary and demand an end to government cuts to the health service.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/30/thousands-to-join-london-protest-over-nhs-funding

    They obviously missed the announcement the other week....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    edited June 2018
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leclerc is going to take a penalty for a new gearbox, and Verstappen’s car is in a race to make qualifying as they fix an electrical gremlin that caused his car to cut out at the end of P3.

    Bottas e/w for pole is still looking good.
    Ahem! ;)
    Congratulations are surely superfluous.
    :smile:
    9/1 on the pole and 3/1 on the Q podium. That buys a few beers. I think Mr Dancer might have got on the same bet too.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,277
    What did Man U pay for Roho? Whatever it was it was far too much. That was beyond idiotic.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    edited June 2018
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Sandpit, yes :)

    Fortunate he edged Hamilton, but given my luck this year it's a very nice change.

    I'll probably lay Bottas for the win (backed pre-practice each way at 10.5). Be a while before the markets wake up but I'll start writing the pre-race article.

    Edited extra bit: I didn't get the pole bet at 10, but 7.5 or so. Still very pleased with the qualifying, though.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    I think I want France to win just to see that racist drug adled dwarf crying his eyes out.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    Thousands of people have marched through London to mark the NHS’s 70th anniversary and demand an end to government cuts to the health service.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/30/thousands-to-join-london-protest-over-nhs-funding

    They obviously missed the announcement the other week....

    I've got a mate who's up in town on a stag do. He's sent me a video of them shouting abuse about Jeremy Hunt and shown me a picture of someone carrying a communist party flag complete with hammer and sickle.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leclerc is going to take a penalty for a new gearbox, and Verstappen’s car is in a race to make qualifying as they fix an electrical gremlin that caused his car to cut out at the end of P3.

    Bottas e/w for pole is still looking good.
    Ahem! ;)
    Congratulations are surely superfluous.
    :smile:
    9/1 on the pole and 3/1 on the Q podium. That buys a few beers. I think Mr Dancer might have got on the same bet too.
    It was a bloody good lap.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    That has to be a red card.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,209

    Mmm. The thing is, Momentum doesn't really have a recognised purpose except as an electoral organisation to promote the left within Labour and Labour in elections. Nobody joins Momentum because they've contemplated their programme (do we have one? I'm a member and I've not seen it) - we joined to help strengthen the movement backbone. I can't see Corbyn being especially influenced by the views of Momentum's executive unless he wants to be - there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership. Cf. what happened to Lansman's candidacy when Corbyn disagreed with it.
    "...there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership."

    So it's a personality cult?

    Perhaps you should consider what that means for the party, and whether it's healthy for internal party and national democracy.
    :+1:
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Argies are going home today.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Having observed SCOTUS quite closely in my little area for the last 15 years, the role that the justice’s clerks play in selecting and then deciding cases should not be underestimated.

    Not to mention that all those in the running for the current nomination have clerked for on or other of the conservative justices.

    The Supreme Court has been, almost since its inception, a political institution, and although it is habit for justices to pay lip service to judicial impartiality, the only decisions which are not nakedly political in controversial cases are those where there is not a clear cut majority.

    That Trump might be able to cement a conservative majority in the court, potentially for decades, having been elected on a minority of the popular vote, and confirmed by a Republican Senate which represents an even smaller percentage of the electorate, is going to be subject of furious controversy for the foreseeable future.
    The claim that Roberts cares about how the court is seen among Americans has always had me rolling my eyes, but never as much as this week.
    It is a mark of how far right the court will shift with Kennedy’s retirement that Roberts is now being considered as the ‘swing vote’.
    If RBG retires, then it will get ugly.
    I don’t think RBG will retire, I think her seat will get filled when she dies. She should have retired when Obama was in power, instead she decided to gamble on Clinton being elected President. It didn’t happen, and as I think Trump will win in 2020, she’s getting replaced by the GOP.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    George does have a point. It's extraordinary how the Leave movement has evolved. It's no longer concerned with why Brexit will be great but why it will be crap and who's to blame.

    It would have been such a brilliant Brexit if only Cameron had delivered it. :lol:

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1012626687845175298
    I actually thought that was Cameron's plan.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896

    Thousands of people have marched through London to mark the NHS’s 70th anniversary and demand an end to government cuts to the health service.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/30/thousands-to-join-london-protest-over-nhs-funding

    They obviously missed the announcement the other week....

    And they’ve clearly missed the above-inflation rises in NHS spending for the last few years.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    OchEye said:

    From the London Review of Books, an interesting view of UK now from 2008, long read but I think worth it...

    "After the Fall
    John Lanchester
    Some of the more pessimistic commentators at the time of the credit crunch, myself included, said that the aftermath of the crash would dominate our economic and political lives for at least ten years. What I wasn’t expecting – what I don’t think anyone was expecting – was that ten years would go by quite so fast. At the start of 2008, Gordon Brown was prime minister of the United Kingdom, George W. Bush was president of the United States, and only politics wonks had ever heard of the junior senator from Illinois; Nicolas Sarkozy was president of France, Hu Jintao was general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, Ken Livingstone was mayor of London, MySpace was the biggest social network, and the central bank interest rate in the UK was 5.5 per cent."

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n13/john-lanchester/after-the-fall

    Great article. Thanks.

    This was very noteworthy:

    "A recent analysis by the Bank of England showed that the effect on house prices of QE had been to keep them 22 per cent higher than they would otherwise have been."
    I also thought it was a great article. I couldn't help but think of Osborne's slogan of "we are all in this together". If only we had been.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,334
    HYUFD said:

    Mmm. The thing is, Momentum doesn't really have a recognised purpose except as an electoral organisation to promote the left within Labour and Labour in elections. Nobody joins Momentum because they've contemplated their programme (do we have one? I'm a member and I've not seen it) - we joined to help strengthen the movement backbone. I can't see Corbyn being especially influenced by the views of Momentum's executive unless he wants to be - there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership. Cf. what happened to Lansman's candidacy when Corbyn disagreed with it.
    You must be quite unique NP in being a Momentum member who was also a Blair loyalist?
    Not especially. There are lots of us who like politics with a purpose. Tony Blair did good work in his early years, although some things which I think have turned out badly, notably Iraq. The common factor is a focus on policy and reform rather than the complacent "vote for us to do a bit better than the other lot" mantra which infests too much of British politics.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,896
    edited June 2018

    Edited extra bit: I didn't get the pole bet at 10, but 7.5 or so. Still very pleased with the qualifying, though.

    Nope, you’re right. Pole was 8 and the win was 10. I’m a couple of beers poorer than I thought I was!!

    Anyone know what the odds were on the Haas qualifying in the top 6?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    France. And I'd have said that before they scored.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Neither of these teams are going to win the World Cup.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584

    OT Kirsten Gillibrand advocating abolishing ICE:
    https://broadly.vice.com/en_us/article/8xezqg/kirsten-gillibrand-first-sitting-senator-to-call-to-abolish-ice

    Bernie Sanders was asked about it and just waffled, and the left is narked off at him.

    Interesting move by one of the more conservative Democrat senators.

    As an aside I have laid my remaining Biden position for the nomination. Whoever gets in will have to be at the very least acceptable to the more radical side of the party - which doesn’t necessarily mean an outright radical, but if not would require a fresh face who doesn’t have to redefine themselves away from a deal of political baggage.
    (Speaking of which I think Gillibrand will struggle to shake off having lawyered for Philip Morris...)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. Sandpit, top 6 markets for qualifying aren't, as far as I know, regularly available.

    For the race the odds would be surprisingly poor, but you can get generally enormous odds for a non-top three team winner (and quite good podium odds).
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,979

    HYUFD said:

    Mmm. The thing is, Momentum doesn't really have a recognised purpose except as an electoral organisation to promote the left within Labour and Labour in elections. Nobody joins Momentum because they've contemplated their programme (do we have one? I'm a member and I've not seen it) - we joined to help strengthen the movement backbone. I can't see Corbyn being especially influenced by the views of Momentum's executive unless he wants to be - there is no way they could turn against him without losing virtually their entire membership. Cf. what happened to Lansman's candidacy when Corbyn disagreed with it.
    You must be quite unique NP in being a Momentum member who was also a Blair loyalist?
    Not especially. There are lots of us who like politics with a purpose. Tony Blair did good work in his early years, although some things which I think have turned out badly, notably Iraq. The common factor is a focus on policy and reform rather than the complacent "vote for us to do a bit better than the other lot" mantra which infests too much of British politics.
    'Some things have turned out badly, notably Iraq’ must be up there with the greatest understatements of all time. Or at least on PB!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,277

    Neither of these teams are going to win the World Cup.

    I think France have the potential but they are not delivering it so far. Beginning to see why Mbappe is thought to be worth so much money.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Mascherano doing a decent impression of Mark van Bommel.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,584
    Sandpit said:

    Edited extra bit: I didn't get the pole bet at 10, but 7.5 or so. Still very pleased with the qualifying, though.

    Nope, you’re right. Pole was 8 and the win was 10. I’m a couple of beers poorer than I thought I was!!

    Anyone know what the odds were on the Haas qualifying in the top 6?
    Dunno, but Grosjean needs a brilliant result or two like that to retain his place in the team, I think. If he could drive like that consistently, he’d be a WC prospect.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,601
    edited June 2018

    Neither of these teams are going to win the World Cup.

    I think I will be watching France vs Brazil on the 10th. This Argentine side is a one man band, and Kante has Messi in his pocket.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942

    Neither of these teams are going to win the World Cup.

    France are impressing me so far. They are making Argentina look very ordinary and in Mbappé and Griezmann I think they have two world class forwards.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Yorkcity said:

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    Neither , support Portugal , the only country we have not been to war with.
    You’re exaggerating. There’s at least another 10 countries we haven’t been to war with.

    Vatican, San Marino, Andorra, Mongolia are the 4 that I remember...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Foxy said:

    Neither of these teams are going to win the World Cup.

    I think I will be watching France vs Brazil on the 10th. This Argentine side is a one man band, and Kante has Mesdi in his pocket.
    I think you are right, but they won’t beat Brazil and Spain (or Belgium).
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,277
    edited June 2018
    This match really isn't going to finish with 22 players on the pitch is it? Can't believe that foul on Kante wasn't a booking.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    DavidL said:

    This match really isn't going to finish with 22 players on the pitch is it?

    Would think it’s odds on the 7pm game has a sending off.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Foxy said:

    Neither of these teams are going to win the World Cup.

    I think I will be watching France vs Brazil on the 10th. This Argentine side is a one man band, and Kante has Messi in his pocket.
    I think (hope, we have a tipster competition at work) you'll be watching France v Belgium.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Neither of these teams are going to win the World Cup.

    France are impressing me so far. They are making Argentina look very ordinary and in Mbappé and Griezmann I think they have two world class forwards.
    Argentina are very ordinary though. In all the group games they were shit.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    Having observed SCOTUS quite closely in my little area for the last 15 years, the role that the justice’s clerks play in selecting and then deciding cases should not be underestimated.

    Not to mention that all those in the running for the current nomination have clerked for on or other of the conservative justices.

    The Supreme Court has been, almost since its inception, a political institution, and although it is habit for justices to pay lip service to judicial impartiality, the only decisions which are not nakedly political in controversial cases are those where there is not a clear cut majority.

    That Trump might be able to cement a conservative majority in the court, potentially for decades, having been elected on a minority of the popular vote, and confirmed by a Republican Senate which represents an even smaller percentage of the electorate, is going to be subject of furious controversy for the foreseeable future.
    Only among the losers, buddy. The winners won’t care.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    NEW THREAD
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    Thousands of people have marched through London to mark the NHS’s 70th anniversary and demand an end to government cuts to the health service.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jun/30/thousands-to-join-london-protest-over-nhs-funding

    They obviously missed the announcement the other week....

    I've got a mate who's up in town on a stag do. He's sent me a video of them shouting abuse about Jeremy Hunt and shown me a picture of someone carrying a communist party flag complete with hammer and sickle.
    Odd way to spend your stag do, but whatever!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,277
    What a strike.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,990
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Edited extra bit: I didn't get the pole bet at 10, but 7.5 or so. Still very pleased with the qualifying, though.

    Nope, you’re right. Pole was 8 and the win was 10. I’m a couple of beers poorer than I thought I was!!

    Anyone know what the odds were on the Haas qualifying in the top 6?
    Dunno, but Grosjean needs a brilliant result or two like that to retain his place in the team, I think. If he could drive like that consistently, he’d be a WC prospect.
    A few years back I really rated Grosjean, and felt that if he just stopped making silly mistakes he could be a brilliant driver, although a WC prospect would have relied on being in a good car.

    I still think he has moments of brilliance that elevate him into the mid-rank of drivers, but he also has some real idiotic ones. It's like his skills have not progressed.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,942
    Charles said:

    Yorkcity said:

    So France v Argentina.

    Who is a good patriotic Englishman like myself expected to cheer for?

    Neither , support Portugal , the only country we have not been to war with.
    You’re exaggerating. There’s at least another 10 countries we haven’t been to war with.

    Vatican, San Marino, Andorra, Mongolia are the 4 that I remember...
    Brazil and Mexico amongst the teams still in the World Cup
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    kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    By the way, did anyone else watch the final The Bridge episode last night? Such a wonderful, delicate, nuanced series with a perfectly-balanced ending.

    I watched it a few weeks here in Denmark and my main criticism is all the Swedes and Danes understanding each other so easily, even in shops and bars - especially the Malmö accent - but agree about the ending; though I think the series has run its course now.
This discussion has been closed.