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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fighting the last but one war. The final Brexit battle approac
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Fighting the last but one war. The final Brexit battle approaches
That didn’t take long. As soon as the Germans were eliminated, it suddenly occurred to the entire British media that “VAR” could, if you squinted at it hard enough, be read as if it were a German pronunciation of the word “war”. Amazing, I know. So “Don’t mention the VAR” made its way through the lower reaches of the press and swam upstream as far as the Times and the Telegraph. Could you have imagined such wit?
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Godwin's law seems to get confused with patiotism in this Brexit (Brakesit or Breaksit or Breaksup ?) masochism.
"Godwin" is, I reckon, particularly European. Sometimes the Americans like to blend in the crusades as well.
The Irish might be the problem now but this is early days. I was at the Portsoy boat festival yesterday in the North East of Scotland and to say the SNP looked chipper would be an understatement. The contagion has only just begun. This could be just the start of the second 100 years VAR
https://twitter.com/falklands_utd/status/1013093659527565313?s=19
Bit sleepy but agree with the last bit. Things will certainly worsen before they improve.
On a more general note I happened to see the back end of a 30 minute programme about the presentation of WWII in films made in Japan on the BBC news channel. It was really rather interesting.
Anyway, shortly I shall see if Ladbrokes has its markets up. The lateness in France and now is really rather odd.
David Cameron ought to have set up a royal commission to explore the options before placing one of them on the referendum ballot. Theresa May ought to have done the same before triggering Article 50. Brexit means Brexit is not a policy: it's a slogan.
GE2017 was called ostensibly to win a mandate for Theresa May's vision of Brexit but she never explained what that is. In any case, she lost her majority.
The manifesto is no great help.
We need to deliver a smooth and orderly departure (page 6)
a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 30)
ensure our departure is smooth and orderly (page 31)
secure a smooth, orderly Brexit (page 36)
fair, orderly negotiations (page 36)
And after Brexit we should have achieved:
a deep and special partnership (page 6)
a new deep and special partnership (page 15)
a deep and special partnership (page 31)
a new deep and special partnership (page 35)
a deep and special partnership (page 35 again)
a deep and special partnership (page 36)
our proposed deep and special partnership (page 38)
Is it so hard to believe that after squandering her party's majority in search of a mandate for this drivel apparently aimed at voters with the attention span of a doughnut, the Cabinet is deeply split as to what it all means, how to get there, and even where we are supposed to be going?
That is what is wrong with this Brexit process: not some WW2 allusions in the popular press.
As for ‘deep and special’, it’s 50/50 on whether we agree any relationship at all.
Your perseverance in getting past page 2 does you credit.
"Brexit means Brexit"
Time to sack the sloganizer.
And I fear, and expect, will be split. 'Why haven’t we just left’ will compete with ‘Dreadful idea; just forget it’ in private and in the pub, as well as in Parliament. and the bitterness, perticularly of the Leaver press, will know no bounds. The hostility, on both sides , will be heightened by some form of legal case involving financial shenanigans by Leave.
The only positive thought is that Paul Dacre is retiring from the Mail in the autumn!
We really needed a choice between ready-made alternatives. Remain, EEA, Customs Union, WTO, conducted by AV. It is likely that such a referendum would have gone the way of EEA.
The complete absence of progress over the last 6 months, and total lack of preparation for WTO Brexit leaves only a few options: The default car crash Brexit, off the peg (EEA or CU) or A50 extension. I dont think the government could survive any of those.
Oi! I'm a voter and my attention span is much greater than that of a ...
Hang on, what time's the F1 on?
Decision time in Bavaria as CSU must say whether they are going to continue in government. This week they have been creating wiggle room for a climb down, but on the other hand Merkel's European solution on migration has been shown to be full of holes.
http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/asylstreit-dobrindt-zweifelt-an-merkels-vereinbarungen-15668431.html
"This isn’t a war, it’s a negotiation."
Tell that to the EU.
Of course, he's using megaphone diplomacy. There is a ready audience of unreconstructed Remainers to appeal to. Continuing the WW2 theme, we're entombed in Colditz and the captors want you to believe that 'resistance is futile'. And 'don't forget you get three square meals a day here; there's nothing for you outside Tommy, only pain and suffering.'
The EU will offer a fudge which is essentially pretty close to "little change for now, potential for change in the future, subject to further discussions in a few years' time". If May settles for that and gets it past her party, most voters will think that's not too bad, now let's talk about the economy, the NHS, etc.
Very frustrating.
Basically, I'm saying that you definitely shouldn't own a property on the Primrose Hill, Camden borders. But other than that, you're OK.
Or something like that
From Wiki. "Institutionalisation refers to the process of embedding some conception (for example a belief, norm, social role, particular value or mode of behavior) within an organization, social system, or society as a whole."
The process is meant to make the inmates believe that this is the only way to behave or live. A sort of EU - isation. Outside, there be dragons, cliff edges abound, madness is everywhere.
I suppose it's a mild form of mental illness and more to be pitied than condemned. So we forgive you old EU-lags anyway.
The nationalism of the leaders of the Brexit movement is sincere but not serious. How can it be serious, when they know that if the game goes awry they can buy a business address in Dublin and skip away?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/30/brexit-tax-avoiding-citizens-of-nowhere-migrate-to-malta
Due to sore throat etc (and now a rapid timetable) I only ended up making one (recent) F1 'video' [radio] and found it easier to have broad topics in mind and make up the specific wording on the spot.
I like the girls who do.
I like the girls who don’t.
I hate the girl who says she will and then she says she won’t.
But the girl I like best of all, and I think you’ll say I’m right,
is the girl who says she never does but she looks as though she ...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YvW_2gr8BGo
Handily, also closer to turnip stocks for the forthcoming Brexocalypse.
Anyway, does Arron Banks pay UK tax; I thought he was a Gibraltar resident? Apart from paying VAT on UK puyrchases, of course!
'The BBC is very much an urban metropolitan organisation and doesn't necessarily represent the whole Country'
While he was talking about the number of transgender staff in the BBC he has unwittingly said something we all know about the BBC as a whole
Looks like my Friday update was on the mark, and the opportunity for westward spread meant Winter Hill was the one to watch when the wind picked up.
Firefighters are being helped by the UK calling up the Emergency Mapping System capability of Copernicus (for Saddleworth on Thursday), and I spent a happy evening browsing their maps.
Five burnt areas of size in the UK on last night's maps:
Saddleworth Moor increased from 9sqkm to 10sqkm last night, with 45 points of fire detected.
The 2 areas of Winter Hill that are now reported as merged, with 22 points of fire and 6sqkm
Smaller ongoing fires near Harbottle, Northumberland 0.5sqkm (2 active points of fire but previous damage) and near
Maerdy in the South Wales valleys, 0.2sqkm (4 active fire points)
There also look to be at least 3 heath fires in an arc around 10-20 miles outside Dublin, the largest of which has burnt over 1sqkm.
Our UK government needs to look after our finance industry and our car industry as they drive the wealth of the country. You only need to look at a country such as Venezuela to see what happens when the government fights with industry. This perspective is what the eu sees. They don’t believe our government would get into a fight with its big industries
I cannot remember a World Cup like this. All (or nearly all) the teams can score; none of the teams can defend. I start from Spain and Brazil being far stronger than the other countries but then I remember the games they've played and the goals they have conceded against weak opposition, and wonder if I should rip up my papers and cards and start again. It is quite easy to see how England can win, or France, or Croatia or anyone. Except Russia. Unless you think the KGB is leaning on the scales.
The silver lining is that this is the most entertaining World Cup I can remember.
Will you all have sorted Brexit by the time I log on tomorrow?
The punters were perfectly within their rights to shove the collective double digit at the EU. What Mr and Mrs UK of Acacia Avenue didn't expect was that the government through their spectacular incompetence would throw the same salutation back at the voters.
Meanwhile with the right hand the EU throws a Churchillian "V" for Victory across the English Channel and with the left hand a single digit salute to Mrs May lamentable administration.
Game over.
Just back from a glorious week in Ireland with Mrs Stodge. It is a truly beautiful country and I think we saw it at its absolute best especially the area round Killarney and the Ring of Kerry.
Dublin was buzzing with tourists - we had the good fortune of staying in the Gresham on O'Connell Street - but so were Killarney and Galway.
I draw no political conclusions from any of this - tourists will still come to Britain in large numbers and to Ireland too whatever the politics and the economics.
The World Cup has been an exceptional tournament so far - I'm old enough to remember the classic 1982 quarter final between Italy and Brazil which saw the European style of Rossi down the Samba flair of Socrates, Falcao and Zico.
It was one of the greatest games of football I have ever seen yet in both the opening Portugal-Spain match and yesterday's superb France-Argentina game we have had two more classics and there's still plenty to come. So far, at any rate, the quality of football has made this tournament a success irrespective of the qualms of those who argued we shouldn't attend.
However the outline of a deal was done in December, namely citizens' rights, which thanks to Javid the UK has now made more progress on than the EU with plans for a simple registration scheme well under way and the extent of the exit bill agreed at around 40 billion euros. The key issue is Ireland and whether only a Customs Union for Ireland alone will be acceptable or a sufficient degree of regulatory alignment. If the former then that will not be acceptable to the DUP or the UK government and there will be no transition period and no FTA and a Brexiteer will likely succeed May by the end of next year as we head to WTO terms. If the latter then a transition period will take us until the end of 2021 with FTA negotiations ongoing in the meantime
Well, both sides want, with different conditions, things to change as little as possible, whatever they say. The conditionality is what is important.
We want a FTA, simple rules of origin, minimal disruption at the borders, the ability to have our own trade agreements with other countries and controls on freedom of movement from the EU.
They want to protect the integrity of the single market (which requires both rules of origin and alignment of UK standards to EU standards so that they can be sure what is produced here is compatible), some money and the ability to ensure that we do not abuse a FTA by state aid, unfair tax rules, lower employment standard etc.
So we need a deal which:
Will involve us using the same MaxFac that EU members (including ourselves) have already signed up to.
Ensures that there is some form of regulatory alignment and some controls if either side (but in practice particularly the EU) thinks that the other is not playing fair.
Protects the citizens of each side who have exercised their FOM.
Gives EU citizens some sort of preferential rights to access to the UK (because not having that will severely aggravate the already appalling youth unemployment in several EU countries) for work and business.
Requires the UK to pay to play for certain EU projects/facilities that we still want to use.
This really shouldn't be this hard. It involves us respecting and addressing their concerns and them doing the same. Only fanatics on either side can derail this. It is important, in my view, that the more pragmatic remainers who may still regret the fact that we are leaving give May their full support to achieve this. Oh, and cheap abuse of those who hold a different view from either side is unhelpful too.
I know we live in febrile times, but I hope no one is pushing the dystopian prospect of Banks being a minister.
We had just 1.6mm of rain in June in N Dorset; average is 53mm. No rain at all in the last 2 weeks and none forecast for next week. July looks to be dry according to the Met Office long range forecast. Mini-crisis looming later in the summer.
Anyway, race starts at 2pm (well, just after due to needless tinkering from Liberty) so I'll get on with something else and check again later.
Perhaps DD could move over to drought minister to save face. He could spend his time refusing to prepare for no rain because the rain needs us more than we need it, and insist that we will have plenty of rain but Wimbledon will continue uninterrupted.
My view is that even with a good Brexit, any change of leadership at the top of the Labour Party must result in the Tories falling. To place all their money on Corbyn still being there in 2022 seems outrageously foolhardy.