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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On this big day let’s remember Ken Clarke’s assessment of TMay
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On this big day let’s remember Ken Clarke’s assessment of TMay just before she won the leadership
One of the great nuggets that came out of the post Brexit referendum CON leadership contest was the above unguarded conversation between Ken Clarke and Malcolm Rifkind captured by Sky News when they thought the cameras were off them.
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No rain for my garden.
This is a keeper.
It is particularly absurd that it has taken 2 years for this meeting to happen. Fail to prepare? prepare to fail.
Mr. Royale, such sexism!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44629568
Even if the reported insanity of May's position goes through, it merely sustains the division within the nation and worsens it. Trust in the political class will sink yet further.
It also fits in with my depressing but so far reasonably accurate outline of how the far right could plausibly (although this is unlikely) end up gaining a foothold in our political system. When people lose faith in the mainstream they stop voting or look elsewhere.
Although it’s fair to say that May is hard to shift from any firm convictions she holds, fortunately she is not hampered by holding very many, and any views on policy come way below the absolute conviction that she should continue to “serve” as PM for as long as possible. So from her perspective, the fineness of the hour will be measured by the distance the can (of fudge) is kicked down the road this time. It’s not so much that she believes the UK must leave on 29 March as that she recognises the necessity of giving the impression that something called Brexit will happen on that date - until such time as events that don’t look too much like her fault make it impossible for it to happen.
I expect there will be an agreement of sorts which will be sub-optimal for both sides without being catastrophic for either and the commentariat will move on - which most of the public did some time ago.
The fact that the SNP is the third party in Parliament doesn’t help, either.
Extraordinary book. Knew it was bad, but hadn’t realised it was this bad
The ability of a blonde 20 something Californian girl to sweet talk older men into supporting her despite the advice of their juniors is quite extraordinary!
Highly recommended if any of you are into that sort of book
Several politically interested friends have just stopped reading the news on Brexit - the general public must have stopped following a long time ago. They'll tune in when it's done, if it's ever done.
(starts on 20 mins though it's all worth listening to)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b7hl3n
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula-one/44725602
If the latter, any given post of mine on the subject should have told you that a while ago.
The reasons why July 6th is so important for Britain’s future, that history will be made in the coming weeks are
1) The position agreed at the Chequers Cabinet is not the terms we leave the EU under, its the bottom line and trades in which we continue negotiation and agree terms of exit with the EU, to be compromised still further in that negotiation and into the final agreement.
2) The final agreement we leave under is peak Brexit. Cameron’s assertion his referendum settles it once and for all is beyond laughable. In 1975 61% of 18-29 year olds voted yes. 41 years on, only 36% of the same group (now aged 59-70) voted remain. Of course! Nothing stands still in this world, so the grass will always appear greener on the other side. Against backdrop of short term and generational public opinion shifts, and shifts within opposition and government parties, there will be British PMs elected on mandate to review our relationship with Europe, particularly to find gainshare and win win scenarios for business and commerce. And of course they will find them. And they will slice and dice and slide away from peak brexit. So the importance of this moment to leavers, the necessity of using this momentum to achieve hard Brexit, because soft Brexit is handing so many slices and slidings away, to today’s and future pro EU remainiacs as a head start!
3) This coming phase of Brexit requires a Brexit PM and Brexit CoEx you can trust to negotiate robustly and deliver what Boris engagingly calls the “full English” Brexit. ignore the fact you now view Boris as a buffoon and liability, is what he has been saying for weeks not absolutely spot on? But who else have you heard supporting him in voicing it! If the leavers in cabinet, government, Conservative party, media and country as a whole cannot defend the barricades this weekend and see this one through, no matter what it takes, the momentum will be irretrievably lost, and history will not record either their lack of courage or their judgement and sense of the moment very kindly.
Because This could be the moment it starts to turn, when the likes of Meeks and Willy Glenn start winning. Think about it. Is that thought alone not a call to arms?
Do you hear the people sing?
Singing a song of angry men?
It is the music of a people
Who will not be slaves again!
When the beating of your heart
Echoes the beating of the drums
There is a life about to start
When tomorrow comes!
Will you join in our crusade?
Who will be strong and stand with me?
Somewhere beyond the barricade
Is there a world you long to see?
Then join in the fight
That will give you the right to be free!!
And now I must away; my wife needs her morning coffee and afterwards the gym calls! Must keep this old body moving!
While if she had made it known before the election that she was after what we hear is her third way wishy washy Brexit she might have got that huge majority.
It is interesting to record that my father, who works in animal health and welfare and regulations on the safe disposal of hazardous waste, has had much the same experience I did - initial delight, then disillusionment, followed by frustration, leading to fury.
It is also worth bearing in mind that with two exceptions (both Labour, interestingly) my father despises all Ministers at DEFRA and MAFF on principle. But even so his loathing for Gove is greater than usual.
Again...
Plenty more time to post on PB from Southam Towers I hope!
The ability of a blonde 50 something mayor to sweet talk other men into supporting him despite the advice of their juniors is quite extraordinary!
Thanks for the recommendation; I'll order the book later. Mrs J and I were split on Theranos: Mrs J thought it was always a scam, whilst I thought Holmes has just got herself into something and tried bluffing her way out. It seems I was wrong on that ...
Yep. Fudge. A tray of the brown, sticky stuff will be presented to the EU and rejected.
I therefore think that what he does is decisive.
One problem with Remain was that while they went big (albeit often incompetently) on economics they never really came up with an answer to questions on sovereignty. That left them no leeway when the bus trumped (Trumped?) them on economics.
The other point however is that Leavers did ultimately choose the most disruptive and least effective form of disengagement.
I am going to be working inside the merged company for a while, at least. There was a rollover element to the deal which means I still have some skin in the game. It's a really interesting merger that creates a lot of opportunities - we have a strong and growing Asia presence, they have none; they do 10% of their business in Latin America, we do nothing there; we are both strong in different verticals in the US and Europe. Our tech is better than theirs, their subscription sales operation is better than ours, etc. Combined we are a 350 person, £50 million a year turnover business with a very good chance to scale pretty quickly. If I can find something useful and enjoyable to do in helping that to happen, why not?
I'm sure the Moggster would approve.
Echoes the beating of Boris's thumb
I've always likened being in the EU as similar to an infection, but a viral rather than a bacterial
infection. Rather than attacking tissues directly, it has actually taken over cellular processes for its own purposes.
You can see this as supercharging the metabolism, the increased temperatures boosting the immune system, which it does. But shaking off a virus can take time.
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1015115211513237505
These experienced old hands have Gove's measure. Gove is not PM material.
Her behaviour is driven by her weak parliamentary position. Had she got a big majority she’d have reached a decision many moons ago and used her terrible two to tell her opponents (on both sides) to go f**k themselves.
Are you having a bet to see how many you can introduce in one thread?
Though we were also constantly told that claims about how integrated we were within the EU were vast exaggerations and that the EU had supposedly minimal control of our lives.
They do say the secret in life is to find something you enjoy doing and then get someone to pay you to do it.
The real details of whether we can get a FTA or not will come during the transition period after which we will have left the single market and customs union
May has used this ambiguity to keep a disunited government together. In the meantime the negotiations with the EU have narrowed the choices (although that might not have happened in the same way if we had a clear position from the start). If there is a lack of ambiguity after today it is very hard to imagine the Cabinet being the same as it is this morning.
Big business making announcements in the run up is obviously an unsubtle project fear mark z, and what happened to those previous economic and business predictions - where is the recession and the 5 million unemployed? I fear the next stage will be a second referendum, and a vote between this deal and no deal -it wouldn’t surprise me if no deal won.
We need a deal, lets get a deal, and lets get it done.
The EU may love fudge, but only the kind they make themselves. Presenting a fudge to them is not going to work.
Congratulations. I can recommend retirement, but that depends on your age, I suspect.
https://twitter.com/ByRobDavies/status/1015130873774080000
I am not saying Gove's analysis will necessarily be optimal or realistic or even possible but it will have intellectual heft and that counts for a lot in an argument. He is also brave enough to walk away if he has to. I am not sure if May is.
"UK engineers to design new Mars rover"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44728947
Sample return is absolutely vital, not only scientifically, but also politically wrt planetary protection.
Tough job and all that, but the deliberate choice to not get agreement among less than 2 dozen cabinet members before now, just pushing it back and back, is not defendable.
The Tories ain't getting my vote next time. They had best hope people who live in a seat that matters do not react the same way.
I'm not convinced they'll have agreement on what to have for lunch.
First, of the leading Brexiters, he will be the least known to the EU negotiators.
Secondly, they will have picked up on his musings about the whole EU being democratically liberated by Brexit.
If Michael Gove were given a more prominent role in negotiations now, the EU will be less certain they know how to handle him and still less enthralled with the British negotiating team. Given the point that has been reached, I'd have thought that was a gambit worth trying right now. Goodwill is not in such abundance that the loss of some will make much odds but instilling a bit of uncertainty in your counterpart probably is worth something.