politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Chequers meeting goes Betfair punters make it a 29% cha

System · July 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Chequers meeting goes Betfair punters make it a 29% chance that TMay won’t survive the year

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Pulpstar · July 2018

Lay of the day.

AndyJS · July 2018

France 2.08
Uruguay 4.7
Draw 3.2

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.145114957

Pulpstar · July 2018

AndyJS said:
France 2.08
Uruguay 4.7
Draw 3.2

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.145114957

I'd be tempted to lay France if Cavani was playing at those prices. But he isn't, so I won't.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2018

Pulpstar said:
Lay of the day.

For me the question is 2019. I could see it, after 29 March, perhaps in time for the AUtumn conference.

TMay's job can't be that much fun at the moment.

MikeSmithson · July 2018

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1015219701063053313

AndyJS · July 2018

I wonder how much money we save in Britain by not installing air-conditioning.

Pulpstar · July 2018

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:
Lay of the day.
For me the question is 2019. I could see it, after 29 March, perhaps in time for the AUtumn conference.

TMay's job can't be that much fun at the moment.

Indeed. We're over halfway through this year too, essentially the Betfair market is saying that a resignation on any day in 2019 is half as likely as one this year. I'd argue it is more likely next year for any given day than this year, not less.

CarlottaVance · July 2018

FPT - public footpath near Chequers:

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/chilterns-countryside/trails/coombe-hill-and-chequers-trail

Pulpstar · July 2018

AndyJS said:
I wonder how much money we save in Britain by not installing air-conditioning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption look at the countries above us in terms of electricity consumption. Clearly air-conditioning takes a monstrous amount of electricity and a huge implied carbon footprint.

Freggles · July 2018

So in just over 8 hours, we should be hearing what British proposal the EU will be rejecting next?

FrancisUrquhart · July 2018

AndyJS said:
I wonder how much money we save in Britain by not installing air-conditioning.

I don't know, but by the sounds of the fans on my PCs they aren't enjoying being asked to do a load of ML anymore than I am sitting in my office sans air con.

CarlottaVance · July 2018

In the end, splitting the difference will satisfy neither side and be at risk of unravelling. Hard Brexit will be costly, but if that is unpalatable, there is only one real alternative.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/06/29/a-soft-brexit-is-a-compromise-that-would-please-no-one/

DecrepitJohnL · July 2018

AndyJS said:
I wonder how much money we save in Britain by not installing air-conditioning.

And how much we waste by asking people to work at higher than optimum temperatures.

CarlottaVance · July 2018

https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1015230806242004993

Casino_Royale · July 2018

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:
Lay of the day.
For me the question is 2019. I could see it, after 29 March, perhaps in time for the AUtumn conference.

TMay's job can't be that much fun at the moment.

I’m glad I’m on a GE in 2019 at 20/1 with Corals.

CarlottaVance · July 2018

https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015211434056220672

DecrepitJohnL · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1015230806242004993

More likely SeanT and Carlotta based on how long they've been mapping access from public footpaths.

tpfkar · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:
FPT - public footpath near Chequers:

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/chilterns-countryside/trails/coombe-hill-and-chequers-trail

Yes it's a pretty area, I've walked around it a few times. Indeed any self-respecting cabinet member who wants to resign wouldn't need to call a taxi; simply take the path to the west and you'll get to Little Kimble station, on the Marylebone line.

rottenborough · July 2018

Freggles said:
So in just over 8 hours, we should be hearing what British proposal the EU will be rejecting next?

I think Barnier has already effectively rejected it this morning, by banging on about the integrity of the Single Market.

dixiedean · July 2018

tpfkar said:

CarlottaVance said:
FPT - public footpath near Chequers:

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/chilterns-countryside/trails/coombe-hill-and-chequers-trail
Yes it's a pretty area, I've walked around it a few times. Indeed any self-respecting cabinet member who wants to resign wouldn't need to call a taxi; simply take the path to the west and you'll get to Little Kimble station, on the Marylebone line.

Just perfect for the replacement bus service...

FrancisUrquhart · July 2018

tpfkar said:

CarlottaVance said:
FPT - public footpath near Chequers:

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/chilterns-countryside/trails/coombe-hill-and-chequers-trail
Yes it's a pretty area, I've walked around it a few times. Indeed any self-respecting cabinet member who wants to resign wouldn't need to call a taxi; simply take the path to the west and you'll get to Little Kimble station, on the Marylebone line.

Knowing this lot, they would probably get lost.

OblitusSumMe · July 2018

Pulpstar said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:
Lay of the day.
For me the question is 2019. I could see it, after 29 March, perhaps in time for the AUtumn conference.

TMay's job can't be that much fun at the moment.
Indeed. We're over halfway through this year too, essentially the Betfair market is saying that a resignation on any day in 2019 is half as likely as one this year. I'd argue it is more likely next year for any given day than this year, not less.

I would agree with that, were they independent probabilities, but her being able to resign next year is contingent on her not having already resigned this year. That alters the probabilities somewhat (though I don't think by enough to affect your conclusion).

JonnyJimmy · July 2018

Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already

OblitusSumMe · July 2018

tpfkar said:

CarlottaVance said:
FPT - public footpath near Chequers:

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/chilterns-countryside/trails/coombe-hill-and-chequers-trail
Yes it's a pretty area, I've walked around it a few times. Indeed any self-respecting cabinet member who wants to resign wouldn't need to call a taxi; simply take the path to the west and you'll get to Little Kimble station, on the Marylebone line.

It's only a couple of miles. They could have left the ministerial car in London and travelled that way in the morning. Then it would have shown the threat to deprive ministers of their ministerial cars as so much irrelevant posturing - and they might have had a chance for some Churchillian repartee with the proles on the train to stiffen their resolve on Brexit.

GIN1138 · July 2018

Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?

JonnyJimmy · July 2018

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already

And in under 24 hours, it started this time yesterday

Pulpstar · July 2018

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?

I'd bloody hope so, as I'll be nearing my retirement.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?

20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.

logical_song · July 2018

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?

Oh yes, there used to be a Conservative Party, I seem to remember.

logical_song · July 2018

OblitusSumMe said:

tpfkar said:

CarlottaVance said:
FPT - public footpath near Chequers:

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/chilterns-countryside/trails/coombe-hill-and-chequers-trail
Yes it's a pretty area, I've walked around it a few times. Indeed any self-respecting cabinet member who wants to resign wouldn't need to call a taxi; simply take the path to the west and you'll get to Little Kimble station, on the Marylebone line.
It's only a couple of miles. They could have left the ministerial car in London and travelled that way in the morning. Then it would have shown the threat to deprive ministers of their ministerial cars as so much irrelevant posturing - and they might have had a chance for some Churchillian repartee with the proles on the train to stiffen their resolve on Brexit.

.... or the other way round.

GIN1138 · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?
20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.

That's good.

I *think* I've got a better chance of seeing the papers about this mess than I have of actually seeing Brexit!

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

I fully expect to lose my bet with JohnO that Mrs May will have announced her departure by the summer recess.

If I had said she'd be gone by the 2019 summer recess I'd feel a lot more confident.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?
20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.
That's good.

I *think* I've got a better chance of seeing the papers about this mess than I have of actually seeing Brexit!

Within 20 years we might well have rejoined the EU if Brexit becomes the shit show that many fear it will be.

JosiasJessop · July 2018

OblitusSumMe said:

tpfkar said:

CarlottaVance said:
FPT - public footpath near Chequers:

https://www.nationaltrust.org.uk/chilterns-countryside/trails/coombe-hill-and-chequers-trail
Yes it's a pretty area, I've walked around it a few times. Indeed any self-respecting cabinet member who wants to resign wouldn't need to call a taxi; simply take the path to the west and you'll get to Little Kimble station, on the Marylebone line.
It's only a couple of miles. They could have left the ministerial car in London and travelled that way in the morning. Then it would have shown the threat to deprive ministers of their ministerial cars as so much irrelevant posturing - and they might have had a chance for some Churchillian repartee with the proles on the train to stiffen their resolve on Brexit.

To be fair, the vegetation's grown crazily this year after the wet spring and hot summer. It's also hot, so someone might get off the train at Kemble looking like you've just spent a few grand at Saville Row, and emerge a mile down the path looking like an eighteenth-Century Cornish pauper who has just lost a fight with Tom Harry.

Morris_Dancer · July 2018

Hope Uruguay win/ Followed a tip here on them at 29 [title, obviously].

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2018

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already

As far as I'm concerned the best way to make someone look childish is to allow them to have their temper tantrum in the middle of Safeway, not to ban them from doing so

CarlottaVance · July 2018

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already

He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....

JonnyJimmy · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....

This isn't the Trump balloon

williamglenn · July 2018

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632

Scott_P · July 2018

JonnyJimmy said:
This isn't the Trump balloon

https://twitter.com/HKesvani/status/1015189030072471552

JonnyJimmy · July 2018

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon

kle4 · July 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632

Which it is. It is a demand that can't be accepted. If the EU do not bend, and show no sign of doing so, remaining or no Deal are the only options that look probable.

Pulpstar · July 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632

May can't agree to this, the DUP pull the rug from under the Gov't instantly. Alastair said that £40 Bn isn't everything to europe, the current financial settlement for NI isn't everything to the DUP either.

Recidivist · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?
20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.
That's good.

I *think* I've got a better chance of seeing the papers about this mess than I have of actually seeing Brexit!
Within 20 years we might well have rejoined the EU if Brexit becomes the shit show that many fear it will be.

I actually think we'll get back in quicker if it isn't a disaster. A traumatic experience will polarise opinion and we'll carry on arguing from entrenched positions. If it turns out to be Y2000 bug event, we'll just drift back in without too much fuss.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....

https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/1014996315670040576?s=21

anothernick · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015211434056220672

If only Cameron really had "fought Brexit tooth and nail." But he spent the first 11 years of his leadership kowtowing to its supporters at every turn and only began to fight back in the few months before the referendum when it was far too late. Of course he is not solely responsible for the result but he certainly bears a bigger share of responsibility than any other individual.

williamglenn · July 2018

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632
Which it is. It is a demand that can't be accepted. If the EU do not bend, and show no sign of doing so, remaining or no Deal are the only options that look probable.

That could be an indication of what May's secrete strategy - keep everyone distracted with interminable arguments about non-starters when really she is just buying time until she can call a second referendum on the basis that there's no mandate to divide the UK.

Anazina · July 2018

DecrepitJohnL said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1015230806242004993
More likely SeanT and Carlotta based on how long they've been mapping access from public footpaths.

The nearest pub to Chequers is the Russell Arms. The landlord might know something.

AlastairMeeks · July 2018

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632
May can't agree to this, the DUP pull the rug from under the Gov't instantly. Alastair said that £40 Bn isn't everything to europe, the current financial settlement for NI isn't everything to the DUP either.

I agree with that assessment. With the benefit of hindsight, I expect some DUP figures regret the enthusiasm with which they endorsed Brexit. It's been much more disruptive to their long term aims than they had expected.

Note Dominic Grieve's comments this morning. The type of deal that the EU is proposing on Northern Ireland is unacceptable to a lot more than the usual awkward squad. M Barnier is being badly advised if he thinks there is any chance of persuading the House of Commons to accept it. It's a complete non-starter (and rightly so, it's highly improper interference with the internal workings of a sovereign state).

CarlottaVance · July 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632

Even Grieve thinks thats unsellable.....and the only MPs who would buy it won't take their seats.....

kle4 · July 2018

anothernick said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015211434056220672
If only Cameron really had "fought Brexit tooth and nail." But he spent the first 11 years of his leadership kowtowing to its supporters at every turn and only began to fight back in the few months before the referendum when it was far too late. Of course he is not solely responsible for the result but he certainly bears a bigger share of responsibility than any other individual.

I don't see how kowtowing signifies responsibility. It didn't create the sentiment. And the sentiment carried the day. He didn't succeed in persuading the public, he's not responsible that a majority held a particular view. Even if not asked, clearly the sentiment against the EU must have been very bad, which would have had consequences.

AlastairMeeks · July 2018

Recidivist said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?
20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.
That's good.

I *think* I've got a better chance of seeing the papers about this mess than I have of actually seeing Brexit!
Within 20 years we might well have rejoined the EU if Brexit becomes the shit show that many fear it will be.
I actually think we'll get back in quicker if it isn't a disaster. A traumatic experience will polarise opinion and we'll carry on arguing from entrenched positions. If it turns out to be Y2000 bug event, we'll just drift back in without too much fuss.

I go back and forth on this. A traumatic experience will polarise and entrench opinions as you say. Set against that, Leave need to convert new supporters given their existing base will die off with time. Entrenchment of opinion is the last thing they need in the long term.

CarlottaVance · July 2018

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon

My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....

Mortimer · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632
Even Grieve thinks thats unsellable.....and the only MPs who would buy it won't take their seats.....

It also doesn’t solve the Irish exports problem at the same time as splitting up NI from its biggest market.

Anazina · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....

A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.

notme · July 2018

anothernick said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015211434056220672
If only Cameron really had "fought Brexit tooth and nail." But he spent the first 11 years of his leadership kowtowing to its supporters at every turn and only began to fight back in the few months before the referendum when it was far too late. Of course he is not solely responsible for the result but he certainly bears a bigger share of responsibility than any other individual.

No. I think that one goes to Gordon Brown... His behaviour round the Lisbon Treaty was utterly scandalous. His cheering on on this forum by an individual who was an MP at the time is beyond shameful I think was the question he asked. That was the pressure point when a referendum at some time became an inevitability.

tpfkar · July 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

Recidivist said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?
20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.
That's good.

I *think* I've got a better chance of seeing the papers about this mess than I have of actually seeing Brexit!
Within 20 years we might well have rejoined the EU if Brexit becomes the shit show that many fear it will be.
I actually think we'll get back in quicker if it isn't a disaster. A traumatic experience will polarise opinion and we'll carry on arguing from entrenched positions. If it turns out to be Y2000 bug event, we'll just drift back in without too much fuss.
I go back and forth on this. A traumatic experience will polarise and entrench opinions as you say. Set against that, Leave need to convert new supporters given their existing base will die off with time. Entrenchment of opinion is the last thing they need in the long term.

I think the real question is what happens to the 40-55 year olds who are the only 50:50 generation, as they approach retirement. If they stay split, there's likely to be a big and enduring remain majority in a decade. if they swing Leave as the baby boomers have, it'll be much closer.

FrancisUrquhart · July 2018

Is this now going to be the response to anything you don't like...make a giant balloon?

Scott_P · July 2018

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656

MarqueeMark · July 2018

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632
Which it is. It is a demand that can't be accepted. If the EU do not bend, and show no sign of doing so, remaining or no Deal are the only options that look probable.

So, the beastly EU we have voted to Leave have been so beastly in not agreeing to the terms for our leaving that we'll have to stay. Right...

The political life expectency of any PM who agreed to that would be measured in picoseconds.

So no deal it is.

williamglenn · July 2018

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656

Scott_P · July 2018

MarqueeMark said:
The political life expectency of any PM who agreed to that would be measured in picoseconds.

So no deal it is.

The political life expectancy of any PM that actually delivers no deal is less than that

logical_song · July 2018

Recidivist said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?
20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.
That's good.

I *think* I've got a better chance of seeing the papers about this mess than I have of actually seeing Brexit!
Within 20 years we might well have rejoined the EU if Brexit becomes the shit show that many fear it will be.
I actually think we'll get back in quicker if it isn't a disaster. A traumatic experience will polarise opinion and we'll carry on arguing from entrenched positions. If it turns out to be Y2000 bug event, we'll just drift back in without too much fuss.

You do realise that Y2K was planned for for years and a lot of work was done (including by some of us on this site) to ensure that there were only a few small problems.

CarlottaVance · July 2018

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.

How many history books will be dedicated to Khan's mayorship, do you reckon?

rpjs · July 2018

logical_song said:

Recidivist said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?
20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.
That's good.

I *think* I've got a better chance of seeing the papers about this mess than I have of actually seeing Brexit!
Within 20 years we might well have rejoined the EU if Brexit becomes the shit show that many fear it will be.
I actually think we'll get back in quicker if it isn't a disaster. A traumatic experience will polarise opinion and we'll carry on arguing from entrenched positions. If it turns out to be Y2000 bug event, we'll just drift back in without too much fuss.
You do realise that Y2K was planned for for years and a lot of work was done (including by some of us on this site) to ensure that there were only a few small problems.

The local authority I worked for in the 90s started work on Y2K in c. 1993.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656

I'm in Dublin at the moment. I was reading some of the "Treaty debates" (the Treaty being the Anglo-Irish treaty of 1921, creating the Irish Free State, for those not in the know). The creation of the Free State as a Dominion - under the British Crown until 1937 - was hugely devisive, even among a group of people pro-independence.

It was stick, end the war with Britain, but compromise on a seeming constitutional technicality, or twist, play on, and risk everything in the name of constitutional purity.

Some of it sounded rather familiar, even if the stakes were quite different...

Anazina · July 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656

I'm sure many of them privately think that's the best option. None of them have the balls to suggest it though. Weak, weak, weak.

kle4 · July 2018

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632
Which it is. It is a demand that can't be accepted. If the EU do not bend, and show no sign of doing so, remaining or no Deal are the only options that look probable.
So, the beastly EU we have voted to Leave have been so beastly in not agreeing to the terms for our leaving that we'll have to stay. Right...

The political life expectency of any PM who agreed to that would be measured in picoseconds.

So no deal it is.

I didn't say we must stay. The point was that if our option on leaving is unacceptable to them, and theirs is unacceptable to us, and neither side can or will bend enough, you either have to no deal or change course entirely. I don't believe that things get too hard will lead us to remain, but it or no Deal seem the only options on the table unless the previously intractable become tractable.

Ive also said repeatedly an accidental no deal is most likely. We cannot bend on this point, and that has to mean no deal if the EU persists .

JonnyJimmy · July 2018

FrancisUrquhart said:
Is this now going to be the response to anything you don't like...make a giant balloon?

The Baby Khan balloon chaps have promised to spend any excess on a pro-Brexit balloon. I expect that'll annoy Khan more than the one of him.

rpjs · July 2018

Scott_P said:

MarqueeMark said:
The political life expectency of any PM who agreed to that would be measured in picoseconds.

So no deal it is.
The political life expectancy of any PM that actually delivers no deal is less than that

And quite honestly, a worse case scenario car crash no deal Brexit could impact the PM's actual life expectency. No, I don't think political violence is inevitable or even likely, but a worse-case no food on the shelves no deal could make it possible.

Slackbladder · July 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656

Gove I reckon. H'es the most pragmatic, and cunning of the bunch,

notme · July 2018

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.

And nothing has the biggest electoral mandate in Europe bigger than Brexit.

CarlottaVance · July 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656

That means Britain is ineluctably being drawn towards a form of EEA and customs union membership. Some leading Brexiteers, such as Dan Hannan, are openly talking about it; in private, there is at least one Brexiteer Cabinet member thinking of breaking ranks and proposing it. For it is clearly now the best option for both the country and the Conservative Party, as this paper has consistently advised. The irony is that this is the one course Mrs May has set herself against. How long will this latest fruitless act of opposition last? She may get her way at the summit today but once the Cabinet get their phones back, they will realise that there is a real world beyond the parched gardens of Chequers.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-the-real-world-is-outside-the-chequers-summit-a3881046.html

And continued freedom of movement.....well, that'll be interesting.....

JonnyJimmy · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.
How many history books will be dedicated to Khan's mayorship, do you reckon?

Depends how bad the murder rate gets, I guess. If we're proper world leaders by the end of the term, he might get more than a footnote.

Recidivist · July 2018

logical_song said:

Recidivist said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?
20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.
That's good.

I *think* I've got a better chance of seeing the papers about this mess than I have of actually seeing Brexit!
Within 20 years we might well have rejoined the EU if Brexit becomes the shit show that many fear it will be.
I actually think we'll get back in quicker if it isn't a disaster. A traumatic experience will polarise opinion and we'll carry on arguing from entrenched positions. If it turns out to be Y2000 bug event, we'll just drift back in without too much fuss.
You do realise that Y2K was planned for for years and a lot of work was done (including by some of us on this site) to ensure that there were only a few small problems.

Well done, you did a great job. But I used it as an example of an event with minimal impact, which is valid just the same whether it was luck or judgement.

Jonathan · July 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656

Far too sensible and obvious to actually happen.

Pulpstar · July 2018

notme said:

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.
And nothing has the biggest electoral mandate in Europe bigger than Brexit.

Emmanuel Macron
Popular vote 20,743,128

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

notme said:

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.
And nothing has the biggest electoral mandate in Europe bigger than Brexit.

Ahem

Brexit 17,410,742 votes

Macron 20,743,128 votes.

Stark_Dawning · July 2018

Slackbladder said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656
Gove I reckon. H'es the most pragmatic, and cunning of the bunch,

Could be Boris. He realizes Rees-Mogg has cornered the market on the hard-Right-Trump-loving-Tory-toff line and has decided to return to the liberal, pro-immigration Boris of yore.

rpjs · July 2018

Recidivist said:

logical_song said:

Recidivist said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:
Who hopes they're still alive in 30 years when we get all the classified information about this time released into the public domain?
20 years.

Dave changed the rules back so it would be 20 years on.
That's good.

I *think* I've got a better chance of seeing the papers about this mess than I have of actually seeing Brexit!
Within 20 years we might well have rejoined the EU if Brexit becomes the shit show that many fear it will be.
I actually think we'll get back in quicker if it isn't a disaster. A traumatic experience will polarise opinion and we'll carry on arguing from entrenched positions. If it turns out to be Y2000 bug event, we'll just drift back in without too much fuss.
You do realise that Y2K was planned for for years and a lot of work was done (including by some of us on this site) to ensure that there were only a few small problems.
Well done, you did a great job. But I used it as an example of an event with minimal impact, which is valid just the same whether it was luck or judgement.

The point is that the very high likelihood of disruption was removed by enough and timely preparation. The UK has done effectively no preparation at all for a no deal Brexit and we have less than nine months left.

anothernick · July 2018

kle4 said:

anothernick said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015211434056220672
If only Cameron really had "fought Brexit tooth and nail." But he spent the first 11 years of his leadership kowtowing to its supporters at every turn and only began to fight back in the few months before the referendum when it was far too late. Of course he is not solely responsible for the result but he certainly bears a bigger share of responsibility than any other individual.
I don't see how kowtowing signifies responsibility. It didn't create the sentiment. And the sentiment carried the day. He didn't succeed in persuading the public, he's not responsible that a majority held a particular view. Even if not asked, clearly the sentiment against the EU must have been very bad, which would have had consequences.

But Cameron pandered to Eurosceptic sentiment - he withdrew the Tories form the EPP, pretended that he was ambivalent about the UK's membership and then went through the charade of negotiating for a better deal when everyone involved knew that he was not going to recommend a leave vote under any circumstances. He shied away from confronting the headbangers himself in the hope that the voters would do it for him. As a result of which the country is in the worst mess since 1945 and, as an added bonus, the previously no-hoper Jeremy Corbyn is now a serious contender for power. That would not have come about without Brexit.

Scott_P · July 2018

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1015250541990109184

Pulpstar · July 2018

Stark_Dawning said:

Slackbladder said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656
Gove I reckon. H'es the most pragmatic, and cunning of the bunch,
Could be Boris. He realizes Rees-Mogg has cornered the market on hard-Right-Trump-loving-Tory-Toff line and has decided to return to the liberal, pro-immigration Boris of yore.

His ghostwriter has no doubt penned about 8 different flavours of remaining & Brexit, ready for Boris to sign off the one he feels best increases his chance of leadership.

williamglenn · July 2018

Stark_Dawning said:

Slackbladder said:

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1015247261662662656
Gove I reckon. H'es the most pragmatic, and cunning of the bunch,
Could be Boris. He realizes Rees-Mogg has cornered the market on hard-Right-Trump-loving-Tory-Toff line and has decided to return to the liberal, pro-immigration Boris of yore.

No, if Boris jumps ship it will be all the way to Remain.

I’d bet on it being Gove too. He’s probably more concerned about not being responsible for destroying the union than the average Brexiteer.

Scott_P · July 2018

https://twitter.com/TheConWom/status/1015207629902286848

tlg86 · July 2018

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1015250541990109184

Not going to Gullane is he?

david_herdson · July 2018

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.

Not true, even if we ignore Putin on grounds of dubious democratic legitimacy, I think the Romanian president, for one, might dispute your assertion.

Jonathan · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

notme said:

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.
And nothing has the biggest electoral mandate in Europe bigger than Brexit.
Ahem

Brexit 17,410,742 votes

Macron 20,743,128 votes.

Ahem

Southgate 23.8M viewers

Scott_P · July 2018

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1015251539534012417

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

I like the dual use of the French second kit.

Can be used as a football shirt and a white flag.

Jonathan · July 2018

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1015251539534012417

Wondering exactly how the Queen will own the Donald. It is going to happen. It's just a question of how. Will she deploy the DoE, who can out Donald the Donald?

david_herdson · July 2018

anothernick said:

kle4 said:

anothernick said:

CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/CraigOliver100/status/1015211434056220672
If only Cameron really had "fought Brexit tooth and nail." But he spent the first 11 years of his leadership kowtowing to its supporters at every turn and only began to fight back in the few months before the referendum when it was far too late. Of course he is not solely responsible for the result but he certainly bears a bigger share of responsibility than any other individual.
I don't see how kowtowing signifies responsibility. It didn't create the sentiment. And the sentiment carried the day. He didn't succeed in persuading the public, he's not responsible that a majority held a particular view. Even if not asked, clearly the sentiment against the EU must have been very bad, which would have had consequences.
But Cameron pandered to Eurosceptic sentiment - he withdrew the Tories form the EPP, pretended that he was ambivalent about the UK's membership and then went through the charade of negotiating for a better deal when everyone involved knew that he was not going to recommend a leave vote under any circumstances. He shied away from confronting the headbangers himself in the hope that the voters would do it for him. As a result of which the country is in the worst mess since 1945 and, as an added bonus, the previously no-hoper Jeremy Corbyn is now a serious contender for power. That would not have come about without Brexit.

Corbyn was more-or-less level pegging with Cameron in 2016 in April/May 2016.

ralphmalph · July 2018

Jonathan said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1015251539534012417
Wondering exactly how the Queen will own the Donald. It is going to happen. It's just a question of how. Will she deploy the DoE, who can out Donald the Donald?

If there is one group of people that the Americans are very respectful to it is the senior citizens. Trump will be like a lamb with the Queen and he will be gushing platitudes afterwards. He keeps saying his mum adored the Queen.

PS The Queen will also be very respectful to The President of The United States of America too.

Verulamius · July 2018

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

notme said:

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.
And nothing has the biggest electoral mandate in Europe bigger than Brexit.
Ahem

Brexit 17,410,742 votes

Macron 20,743,128 votes.
Ahem

Southgate 23.8M viewers

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

26,330,823

Verulamius · July 2018

Verulamius said:

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

notme said:

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.
And nothing has the biggest electoral mandate in Europe bigger than Brexit.
Ahem

Brexit 17,410,742 votes

Macron 20,743,128 votes.
Ahem

Southgate 23.8M viewers
Recep Tayyip Erdogan

26,330,823

Putin

56,430,712

rpjs · July 2018

Verulamius said:

Verulamius said:

Jonathan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

notme said:

Anazina said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:

CarlottaVance said:

JonnyJimmy said:
Sadiq's going to look a right twat if he tries to ban this balloon

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/giant-sadiq-khan-baby-balloon-to-fly-over-london

Over £15k raised for it already
He's ok'd it. Farage was venting on Twitter yesterday about 'the greatest insult ever to an American President', worse than being shot (Lincoln, Garfield, Kennedy) or having your house burned down (by us....) apparently....
This isn't the Trump balloon
My mistake. A nobody like Khan should be flattered....
A nobody that has the largest personal mandate in Europe after the French president.

Okay.
And nothing has the biggest electoral mandate in Europe bigger than Brexit.
Ahem

Brexit 17,410,742 votes

Macron 20,743,128 votes.
Ahem

Southgate 23.8M viewers
Recep Tayyip Erdogan

26,330,823
Putin

56,430,712

Not all of their voters are in Europe though!

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1015177997941436416

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

Proper shitbaggery going on here.

Pulpstar · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Proper shitbaggery going on here.

Why was Mbppe booked ?

Sean_F · July 2018

williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1015236485954629632

But, it is intended to be a threat to the UK's constitutional integrity.

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