There is no Brexit that can deliver what those who voted for Brexit were told they would get. Choices have to be made. If reducing immigration is the priority then there is an economic and fiscal price to pay for that. And vice versa. Surely there are Brexiteer politicians out there who are willing to level with voters on this. Isn't it time to trust the people?
Unfortunately I am not able to view video at the moment so apologies if my general remarks repeat what you say or are irrelevant to it.
Empirically, membership of the European Union is best for the UK. It's multilateral, which suits a medium powered country that wants to spread its influence. We're at the table helping to shape decisions in our interest. It's a collective of liberal democracies like us, it promotes the rule of law as we want to do and it's in Europe - our continent. This translates into useful programmes, greater prospects and more trade and more prosperity than we would otherwise have.
If these are things we want, it goes without saying that we will get far less of them after Brexit.
It shouldn't need saying, but unfortunately we do need to say it, because there is widespread denial about the consequences of Brexit. We won't get what we want, I suggest, because we had it but rejected it. It will instead be a messy distracting decade of damage limitation.
We had want we wanted but the Brussels fanatics with their ongoing drive for integration fucked it all up
“We had what we wanted.”
One of the few true things you’ve said of late.
That is offensive and inaccurate.
You may disagree with me - that is your right - but i never lie
That's a little pompous and over-sensitive. There's a wide range of statements which fall between being true, and being a lie. You need to add intent to falsehood to make a lie, and there's no such accusation in the post you responded to.
Gardenwalker has a history of accusing me of lying without providing evidence
My reputation and brand depends on honesty
Never knew you had a brand, can we expect to see adverts on our screens soon?
By chance my name is the brand of my brother’s business. But no: it doesn’t advertise.
30 to 45 letters in to Brady for a No Confidence vote in May already according to Amanda Platell based on her sources in the Tory Party.
To be fair they need to put up or shut up. I have no problem with a VNOC
We are heading for a Major 'back me or sack me' vote soon I think
She is poor on Marr and looks shattered. I have no idea what happens next
To be fair to May I do like her personally despite my deep reservations over this deal, she deserves a chance to try and get something from the EU.
May also confirmed it is non negotiable we will end free movement and leave the customs union.
She also says her mobility plans will not be free movement but based on specific business needs
I haven't see Marr but I don't think many would doubt that May is doing her very best in a very difficult situation.
With hindsight the Tories really should have sorted some of these issues out once she had lost the majority in the election and either gone hard Brexit with full preparation or soft Brexit under someone like Hammond who did not have her baggage. The failure to make a decision is in itself a decision and allowing May to stagger on putting every hard question off for another day was a succession of poor decisions by the party. But we are where we are and now have to live with the consequences of failing to decide.
Unfortunately I am not able to view video at the moment so apologies if my general remarks repeat what you say or are irrelevant to it.
Empirically, membership of the European Union is best for the UK. It's multilateral, which suits a medium powered country that wants to spread its influence. We're at the table helping to shape decisions in our interest. It's a collective of liberal democracies like us, it promotes the rule of law as we want to do and it's in Europe - our continent. This translates into useful programmes, greater prospects and more trade and more prosperity than we would otherwise have.
If these are things we want, it goes without saying that we will get far less of them after Brexit.
It shouldn't need saying, but unfortunately we do need to say it, because there is widespread denial about the consequences of Brexit. We won't get what we want, I suggest, because we had it but rejected it. It will instead be a messy distracting decade of damage limitation.
We had want we wanted but the Brussels fanatics with their ongoing drive for integration fucked it all up
“We had what we wanted.”
One of the few true things you’ve said of late.
That is offensive and inaccurate.
You may disagree with me - that is your right - but i never lie
That's a little pompous and over-sensitive. There's a wide range of statements which fall between being true, and being a lie. You need to add intent to falsehood to make a lie, and there's no such accusation in the post you responded to.
Gardenwalker has a history of accusing me of lying without providing evidence
My reputation and brand depends on honesty
Never knew you had a brand, can we expect to see adverts on our screens soon?
By chance my name is the brand of my brother’s business. But no: it doesn’t advertise.
The Sunday press does not read well for May. She is very isolated. With a couple of resignation speeches looming and the distraction of the World Cup behind us she will do well to survive the week intact.
Meanwhile, if it does come to that, wondering who the Stop Boris candidate will be.
I am underwhelmed by her proposals .... It can't be a fun position to be in.
How does this deal - or any deal - get signed off, though?
I think that there will be enough pragmatists, even if pretty unhappy ones, to force it through the Commons.
I simply look at my own position. I am not thrilled, to put it politely, with the extent to which we are committing ourselves to keep all existing EU based laws and, even worse, commit ourselves to enacting all future laws that impinge on the Single Market as a condition of a FTA.
I am not comfortable with how the interpretation of those laws will in fact be in the control of the CJE and UK Courts will have to follow their guidance. We will effectively have a shadow legal system where a lot of the important decisions are made elsewhere and this is particularly concerning when one considers how the CJE has consistently made additional land grabs for the EU giving legislation passed its widest possible effect rather than seeking to construe it narrowly as UK courts tend to do with our legislation.
But TINA. If I was in the Commons I would vote for the proposal through gritted teeth.
Labour will whip its MPs to vote against any deal May gets. So the Tories will be relying on their loons to come into line.
I am not saying that there is no risk but Labour will have to decide between May's deal and no deal. I seriously doubt that they will be able to whip all their MPs to oppose if that is the alternative.
Wrong. We are inexorably moving towards a second vote - the makeup of it is the only decision for Parliament.
I would like two votes on separate ballot papers:
1. "With the agreement we have reached with the EU........do you support the UK to REMAIN in the EU or LEAVE the EU"
If and only if the above results in a LEAVE vote
2. Do you support the agreement the UK has reached with the EU or do you support to leave the EU without any agreement ?
The Moggsters will, of course, vote LEAVE in (1) and no deal in (2).
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
In which case, her handling of the 2018 White Paper will prove to be be even more disatrous than her handling of the 2017 Manifesto.....
She may though still be able to get a transition deal but the party will demand it is ended by December 2020 if no FTA confirmed by then
There will be no FTA by then. But we will have left the EU. We could find that this satisfies the vast majority of people and that a lot of the current noise dies down as a result. I suspect that is May's gamble. Once we leave on 29th March 2019, the referendum result will have been unquestionably delivered. What happens next will largely be seen as detail as long as there are symbolic wins - blue passports, etc.
30 to 45 letters in to Brady for a No Confidence vote in May already according to Amanda Platell based on her sources in the Tory Party.
To be fair they need to put up or shut up. I have no problem with a VNOC
We are heading for a Major 'back me or sack me' vote soon I think
She is poor on Marr and looks shattered. I have no idea what happens next
To be fair to May I do like her personally despite my deep reservations over this deal, she deserves a chance to try and get something from the EU.
May also confirmed it is non negotiable we will end free movement and leave the customs union.
She also says her mobility plans will not be free movement but based on specific business needs
I haven't see Marr but I don't think many would doubt that May is doing her very best in a very difficult situation.
With hindsight the Tories really should have sorted some of these issues out once she had lost the majority in the election and either gone hard Brexit with full preparation or soft Brexit under someone like Hammond who did not have her baggage. The failure to make a decision is in itself a decision and allowing May to stagger on putting every hard question off for another day was a succession of poor decisions by the party. But we are where we are and now have to live with the consequences of failing to decide.
The problem is the EU will delay and prevaricate.
Whether May or Hammond led the party soft Brexit would never be easy to agree with the EU in a way the party and its voters and mbers would accept which means longer term we have to also be prepared for hard Brexit
The Sunday press does not read well for May. She is very isolated. With a couple of resignation speeches looming and the distraction of the World Cup behind us she will do well to survive the week intact.
Meanwhile, if it does come to that, wondering who the Stop Boris candidate will be.
I am underwhelmed by her proposals .... It can't be a fun position to be in.
How does this deal - or any deal - get signed off, though?
I think that there will be enough pragmatists, even if pretty unhappy ones, to force it through the Commons.
I simply look at my own position. I am not thrilled, to put it politely, with the extent to which we are committing ourselves to keep all existing EU based laws and, even worse, commit ourselves to enacting all future laws that impinge on the Single Market as a condition of a FTA.
I am not comfortable with how the interpretation of those laws will in fact be in the control of the CJE and UK Courts will have to follow their guidance. We will effectively have a shadow legal system where a lot of the important decisions are made elsewhere and this is particularly concerning when one considers how the CJE has consistently made additional land grabs for the EU giving legislation passed its widest possible effect rather than seeking to construe it narrowly as UK courts tend to do with our legislation.
But TINA. If I was in the Commons I would vote for the proposal through gritted teeth.
Labour will whip its MPs to vote against any deal May gets. So the Tories will be relying on their loons to come into line.
I am not saying that there is no risk but Labour will have to decide between May's deal and no deal. I seriously doubt that they will be able to whip all their MPs to oppose if that is the alternative.
Wrong. We are inexorably moving towards a second vote - the makeup of it is the only decision for Parliament.
I would like two votes on separate ballot papers:
1. "With the agreement we have reached with the EU........do you support the UK to REMAIN in the EU or LEAVE the EU"
If and only if the above results in a LEAVE vote
2. Do you support the agreement the UK has reached with the UK or do you support to leave the EU with no deal ?
The Moggsters will, of course, vote LEAVE in (1) and no deal in (2).
Care to set out a timetable for these two referendums in the remaining time available?
Revelations today re Andrew Griffiths could lead to by-election as the people of Burton and Uttoxeter may object to having a depraved pervert as an MP.Tories have a 20% lead to defend from Labour.Hard ask for Labour unless ukip starts to cream off Tory votes but a potentially tricky by-election is all May and the Tories need right now.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
In which case, her handling of the 2018 White Paper will prove to be be even more disatrous than her handling of the 2017 Manifesto.....
She may though still be able to get a transition deal but the party will demand it is ended by December 2020 if no FTA confirmed by then
There will be no FTA by then. But we will have left the EU. We could find that this satisfies the vast majority of people and that a lot of the current noise dies down as a result. I suspect that is May's gamble. Once we leave on 29th March 2019, the referendum result will have been unquestionably delivered. What happens next will largely be seen as detail as long as there are symbolic wins - blue passports, etc.
I agree on that.
The key date now is no longer what happens in March 2019 but what has happened by December 2020 and the mood of the public and Tory voters and members and MPs then
The Sunday press does not read well for May. She is very isolated. With a couple of resignation speeches looming and the distraction of the World Cup behind us she will do well to survive the week intact.
Meanwhile, if it does come to that, wondering who the Stop Boris candidate will be.
I am underwhelmed by her proposals .... It can't be a fun position to be in.
How does this deal - or any deal - get signed off, though?
I think that there will be enough pragmatists, even if pretty unhappy ones, to force it through the Commons.
I simply look at my own position. I am not thrilled, to put it politely, with the extent to which we are committing ourselves to keep all existing EU based laws and, even worse, commit ourselves to enacting all future laws that impinge on the Single Market as a condition of a FTA.
I am not comfortable with how the interpretation of those laws will in fact be in the control of the CJE and UK Courts will have to follow their guidance. We will effectively have a shadow legal system where a lot of the important decisions are made elsewhere and this is particularly concerning when one considers how the CJE has consistently made additional land grabs for the EU giving legislation passed its widest possible effect rather than seeking to construe it narrowly as UK courts tend to do with our legislation.
But TINA. If I was in the Commons I would vote for the proposal through gritted teeth.
Labour will whip its MPs to vote against any deal May gets. So the Tories will be relying on their loons to come into line.
I am not saying that there is no risk but Labour will have to decide between May's deal and no deal. I seriously doubt that they will be able to whip all their MPs to oppose if that is the alternative.
Wrong. We are inexorably moving towards a second vote - the makeup of it is the only decision for Parliament.
I would like two votes on separate ballot papers:
1. "With the agreement we have reached with the EU........do you support the UK to REMAIN in the EU or LEAVE the EU"
If and only if the above results in a LEAVE vote
2. Do you support the agreement the UK has reached with the EU or do you support to leave the EU without any agreement ?
The Moggsters will, of course, vote LEAVE in (1) and no deal in (2).
Nothing is impossible in the current situation but I think a second referendum with a question about remain or leave is a good working approximation.
Revelations today re Andrew Griffiths could lead to by-election as the people of Burton and Uttoxeter may object to having a depraved pervert as an MP.Tories have a 20% lead to defend from Labour.Hard ask for Labour unless ukip starts to cream off Tory votes but a potentially tricky by-election is all May and the Tories need right now.
As there is no recall power in the UK they can object all they like but unless Griffiths stands down there will be no by election
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
I heard that a few days ago
On reflection I am more relaxed about Brexit and have no idea whether TM survives, or there is a leadership election, but it is obvious that everything is at deadlock and there is no possible way of seeing how this pans out between now and October
As a matter of interest did you catch up on the Airbus report in the business section of the guardian
I have just read it, Airbus clearly welcomes the Chequers Deal but what they really want is to ensure there is a transition deal if we leave the single market and customs union which May's plan makes more likely even if it is ultimately hard Brexit. Also seems Airbus is more likely to move work to China than the EU if it moves put of the UK so the EU would get little benefit from an Airbus departure.
Also note Broughton where the Airbus plant is is in Flintshire which voted 56% Leave
Thanks for reading it and you can see why I am content with May's Brexit.
It already has moved production to China but that production is for the Chinese market.
Airbus will remain in Europe and continue its development of new products. Indeed it is that that takes my son in law to meetings in France, Germany and Spain regularly
The area voted leave but they did not vote for Airbus to close their operations in North Wales
Yeah. Nissan workers also voted to LEAVE..........
Revelations today re Andrew Griffiths could lead to by-election as the people of Burton and Uttoxeter may object to having a depraved pervert as an MP.Tories have a 20% lead to defend from Labour.Hard ask for Labour unless ukip starts to cream off Tory votes but a potentially tricky by-election is all May and the Tories need right now.
As there is no recall power in the UK they can object all they like but unless Griffiths stands down there will be no by election
Yes there is.
Griffiths doesn't have to stand down for there to be a by election.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
In which case, her handling of the 2018 White Paper will prove to be be even more disatrous than her handling of the 2017 Manifesto.....
She may though still be able to get a transition deal but the party will demand it is ended by December 2020 if no FTA confirmed by then
There will be no FTA by then. But we will have left the EU. We could find that this satisfies the vast majority of people and that a lot of the current noise dies down as a result. I suspect that is May's gamble. Once we leave on 29th March 2019, the referendum result will have been unquestionably delivered. What happens next will largely be seen as detail as long as there are symbolic wins - blue passports, etc.
I agree on that.
The key date now is no longer what happens in March 2019 but what has happened by December 2020 and the mood of the public and Tory voters and members and MPs then
Symbolic wins and no big downsides, I should have said.
But my hunch is that for a lot of Leave voters - not the obsessives, but how many are that? - the act of leaving will in and of itself be plenty enough. That will then give May a lot more leeway than she has now. If the transition period is extended, who is going to notice and who is really going to care? Very few people indeed. The White paper is all about getting the UK to 30th March without falling off the cliff. The Northern Ireland backstop will never be invoked because if we do get to 30th March in tact a deal will eventually be done. That is a big if, though.
Unfortunately I am not able to view video at the moment so apologies if my general remarks repeat what you say or are irrelevant to it.
Empirically, membership of the European Union is best for the UK. It's multilateral, which suits a medium powered country that wants to spread its influence. We're at the table helping to shape decisions in our interest. It's a collective of liberal democracies like us, it promotes the rule of law as we want to do and it's in Europe - our continent. This translates into useful programmes, greater prospects and more trade and more prosperity than we would otherwise have.
If these are things we want, it goes without saying that we will get far less of them after Brexit.
It shouldn't need saying, but unfortunately we do need to say it, because there is widespread denial about the consequences of Brexit. We won't get what we want, I suggest, because we had it but rejected it. It will instead be a messy distracting decade of damage limitation.
We had want we wanted but the Brussels fanatics with their ongoing drive for integration fucked it all up
“We had what we wanted.”
One of the few true things you’ve said of late.
That is offensive and inaccurate.
You may disagree with me - that is your right - but i never lie
That's a little pompous and over-sensitive. There's a wide range of statements which fall between being true, and being a lie. You need to add intent to falsehood to make a lie, and there's no such accusation in the post you responded to.
Gardenwalker has a history of accusing me of lying without providing evidence
My reputation and brand depends on honesty
I don’t think I’ve accused you of outright lying. You’re confusing me with Mr Jessop (I think).
I’m just annoyed by your progression from seemingly sensible patrician Tory liberal to defending Trump while claiming Brexit will be vindicated in 100 years.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
30 to 45 letters in to Brady for a No Confidence vote in May already according to Amanda Platell based on her sources in the Tory Party.
To be fair they need to put up or shut up. I have no problem with a VNOC
We are heading for a Major 'back me or sack me' vote soon I think
She is poor on Marr and looks shattered. I have no idea what happens next
To be fair to May I do like her personally despite my deep reservations over this deal, she deserves a chance to try and get something from the EU.
May also confirmed it is non negotiable we will end free movement and leave the customs union.
She also says her mobility plans will not be free movement but based on specific business needs
I haven't see Marr but I don't think many would doubt that May is doing her very best in a very difficult situation.
With hindsight the Tories really should have sorted some of these issues out once she had lost the majority in the election and either gone hard Brexit with full preparation or soft Brexit under someone like Hammond who did not have her baggage. The failure to make a decision is in itself a decision and allowing May to stagger on putting every hard question off for another day was a succession of poor decisions by the party. But we are where we are and now have to live with the consequences of failing to decide.
Indeed so. Too much pretending something would come up to make all the sides agree. V ONC best for everyone.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
I think Barnier will go along with May in preserving the ambiguous semantics until after the withdrawal agreement is done on 29 March next year. Then will come the 'Non Madame May' and we will end up with the EEA/CU deal at the end of the transition period, which, in effect, never ends.
30 to 45 letters in to Brady for a No Confidence vote in May already according to Amanda Platell based on her sources in the Tory Party.
To be fair they need to put up or shut up. I have no problem with a VNOC
We are heading for a Major 'back me or sack me' vote soon I think
She is poor on Marr and looks shattered. I have no idea what happens next
To be fair to May I do like her personally despite my deep reservations over this deal, she deserves a chance to try and get something from the EU.
May also confirmed it is non negotiable we will end free movement and leave the customs union.
She also says her mobility plans will not be free movement but based on specific business needs
I haven't see Marr but I don't think many would doubt that May is doing her very best in a very difficult situation.
With hindsight the Tories really should have sorted some of these issues out once she had lost the majority in the election and either gone hard Brexit with full preparation or soft Brexit under someone like Hammond who did not have her baggage. The failure to make a decision is in itself a decision and allowing May to stagger on putting every hard question off for another day was a succession of poor decisions by the party. But we are where we are and now have to live with the consequences of failing to decide.
Indeed so. Too much pretending something would come up to make all the sides agree. V ONC best for everyone.
I think its too late. The priority now is the deal and there is no time for anyone else to negotiate it. If the EU come back and say get lost, which they might, that might change but while there is a reasonable prospect we need to let her get on with it.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
Ha, if they are contemplating my plan of forcing a vote themselves they are in a bad way.as for more resignations, the delays of the others in doing so we're poorly justified, doing so now would be very hard to justify. Sure it has become more unpopular, but if they think the plan is the best option they've has plenty of time now.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
I think Barnier will go along with May in preserving the ambiguous semantics until after the withdrawal agreement is done on 29 March next year. Then will come the 'Non Madame May' and we will end up with the EEA/CU deal at the end of the transition period, which, in effect, never ends.
And you know what? Most people would be absolutely fine with that.
The Sunday press does not read well for May. She is very isolated. With a couple of resignation speeches looming and the distraction of the World Cup behind us she will do well to survive the week intact.
Meanwhile, if it does come to that, wondering who the Stop Boris candidate will be.
I am underwhelmed by her proposals .... It can't be a fun position to be in.
How does this deal - or any deal - get signed off, though?
I think that there will be enough pragmatists, even if pretty unhappy ones, to force it through the Commons.
But TINA. If I was in the Commons I would vote for the proposal through gritted teeth.
Labour will whip its MPs to vote against any deal May gets. So the Tories will be relying on their loons to come into line.
I am not saying that there is no risk but Labour will have to decide between May's deal and no deal. I seriously doubt that they will be able to whip all their MPs to oppose if that is the alternative.
Wrong. We are inexorably moving towards a second vote - the makeup of it is the only decision for Parliament.
I would like two votes on separate ballot papers:
1. "With the agreement we have reached with the EU........do you support the UK to REMAIN in the EU or LEAVE the EU"
If and only if the above results in a LEAVE vote
2. Do you support the agreement the UK has reached with the UK or do you support to leave the EU with no deal ?
The Moggsters will, of course, vote LEAVE in (1) and no deal in (2).
Care to set out a timetable for these two referendums in the remaining time available?
Only one voting day. Two different ballot papers like General Election and Council Election. The second ballot will only be counted if the first one results in LEAVE.
Date ? As soon as practically possible after any agreement has been reached with the EU. Even as late as early March but early or mid-February would be best.
If the result of (1) is REMAIN then Art.50 is withdrawn. Primary legislation can be whisked through Parliament in a week.
If (1) is LEAVE and (2) is No Deal, then it is armageddon time.
Never seen Marr get so close to actually showing teeth in an interview. Amazing May doesn't have better responses to these questions yet - it's out there flapping in the wind now that the complaints are valid.
I think she is suffering now from her inability to express herself and it is painful to watch this morning
Being interviewed is a learned skill and politicians who have spent most of their careers ducking interviews, like Theresa May and Gordon Brown, end up being no good at it.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
I heard that a few days ago
On reflection I am more relaxed about Brexit and have no idea whether TM survives, or there is a leadership election, but it is obvious that everything is at deadlock and there is no possible way of seeing how this pans out between now and October
As a matter of interest did you catch up on the Airbus report in the business section of the guardian
I have just read it, Airbus clearly welcomes the Chequers Deal but what they really want is to ensure there is a transition deal if we leave the single market and customs union which May's plan makes more likely even if it is ultimately hard Brexit. Also seems Airbus is more likely to move work to China than the EU if it moves put of the UK so the EU would get little benefit from an Airbus departure.
Also note Broughton where the Airbus plant is is in Flintshire which voted 56% Leave
I know that you’re obsessed by individual voting patterns for or against, but you might consider the the now clear fact that the voters were actively lied to about the consequences of a leave vote. People who were low information voters are less so now. Perhaps, and I appreciate this would be a leap for you, Flintshire might think differently now.
30 to 45 letters in to Brady for a No Confidence vote in May already according to Amanda Platell based on her sources in the Tory Party.
To be fair they need to put up or shut up. I have no problem with a VNOC
We are heading for a Major 'back me or sack me' vote soon I think
She is poor on Marr and looks shattered. I have no idea what happens next
To be fair to May I do like her personally despite my deep reservations over this deal, she deserves a chance to try and get something from the EU.
May also confirmed it is non negotiable we will end free movement and leave the customs union.
She also says her mobility plans will not be free movement but based on specific business needs
I haven't see Marr but I don't think many would doubt that May is doing her very best in a very difficult situation.
With hindsight the Tories really should have sorted some of these issues out once she had lost the majority in the election and either gone hard Brexit with full preparation or soft Brexit under someone like Hammond who did not have her baggage. The failure to make a decision is in itself a decision and allowing May to stagger on putting every hard question off for another day was a succession of poor decisions by the party. But we are where we are and now have to live with the consequences of failing to decide.
Indeed so. Too much pretending something would come up to make all the sides agree. V ONC best for everyone.
I think its too late. The priority now is the deal and there is no time for anyone else to negotiate it. If the EU come back and say get lost, which they might, that might change but while there is a reasonable prospect we need to let her get on with it.
Yes, but that's why the vote - either she wins and stops waiting for the sword of damocles to drop and gets on with it, or she loses and we go for no deal . We know lots of tories want no deal, and those who want another deal are suspect as they've waited too long if they are sincere .
Unfortunately I am not able to view video at the moment so apologies if my general remarks repeat what you say or are irrelevant to it.
Empirically, membership of the European Union is best for the UK. It's multilateral, which suits a medium powered country that wants to spread its influence. We're at the table helping to shape decisions in our interest. It's a collective of liberal democracies like us, it promotes the rule of law as we want to do and it's in Europe - our continent. This translates into useful programmes, greater prospects and more trade and more prosperity than we would otherwise have.
If these are things we want, it goes without saying that we will get far less of them after Brexit.
It shouldn't need saying, but unfortunately we do need to say it, because there is widespread denial about the consequences of Brexit. We won't get what we want, I suggest, because we had it but rejected it. It will instead be a messy distracting decade of damage limitation.
We had want we wanted but the Brussels fanatics with their ongoing drive for integration fucked it all up
“We had what we wanted.”
One of the few true things you’ve said of late.
That is offensive and inaccurate.
You may disagree with me - that is your right - but i never lie
That's a little pompous and over-sensitive. There's a wide range of statements which fall between being true, and being a lie. You need to add intent to falsehood to make a lie, and there's no such accusation in the post you responded to.
Gardenwalker has a history of accusing me of lying without providing evidence
Revelations today re Andrew Griffiths could lead to by-election as the people of Burton and Uttoxeter may object to having a depraved pervert as an MP.Tories have a 20% lead to defend from Labour.Hard ask for Labour unless ukip starts to cream off Tory votes but a potentially tricky by-election is all May and the Tories need right now.
As there is no recall power in the UK they can object all they like but unless Griffiths stands down there will be no by election
Yes there is.
Griffiths doesn't have to stand down for there to be a by election.
To be triggered by the Speaker not constituents and only in the event of a custodial sentence or suspension from the Commons etc and while Griffiths has been stupid no evidence yet of anything illegal
Really? If BigG thinks she was poor I was assuming it was fairly catastrophic.
Always good to get an alternative view
Absolutely. I was hoping he/she might expand why he/she thought so.
Maybe she did ok but during her interview my wife asked me a question, I listened, and gave her an answer. Even my wife was surprised as that never normally happens when TM is live on tv !!!!
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
Love how those last two have basically the same people engaging in two different types of ratfucking that exactly cancel each other out. I suppose one of the main reasons people go into politics is because they really, really enjoy ratfucking.
Really? If BigG thinks she was poor I was assuming it was fairly catastrophic.
BigG probably has higher standards for his leader than I do.
Marr was badgering and interrupting and very irritating. I think he was trying to prove he is not a Tory or something. She did well in the circumstances. I was interested in what she had to say. It wasn't just platitudes.
I also liked her revelation that Trump's advice was "Sue the EU"! Typical Trump. I laughed out loud.
Both Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, and Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, are still on resignation “suicide watch”. Neither has commented publicly on the Chequers deal. Mordaunt has privately not ruled out resignation. MPs say McVey has been encouraged to quit by her partner, Philip Davies, MP for Shipley. “She’s being wound up by Philip,” a female MP said. “We are wearing our tin hats.”
Davis launched an expletive-laden rant at May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, at a meeting in No 10 last Saturday, declaring Downing Street’s arguments “bollocks” and accusing May of having “bullied the cabinet” into backing her plans.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This would be the Penny Mordaunt who signed an EDM in support of homeopathy? That Penny Mordaunt? What on earth has she done in office to make people think she has something to offer as PM?
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
In which case, her handling of the 2018 White Paper will prove to be be even more disatrous than her handling of the 2017 Manifesto.....
She may though still be able to get a transition deal but the party will demand it is ended by December 2020 if no FTA confirmed by then
There will be no FTA by then. But we will have left the EU. We could find that this satisfies the vast majority of people and that a lot of the current noise dies down as a result. I suspect that is May's gamble. Once we leave on 29th March 2019, the referendum result will have been unquestionably delivered. What happens next will largely be seen as detail as long as there are symbolic wins - blue passports, etc.
I agree on that.
The key date now is no longer what happens in March 2019 but what has happened by December 2020 and the mood of the public and Tory voters and members and MPs then
Symbolic wins and no big downsides, I should have said.
But my hunch is that for a lot of Leave voters - not the obsessives, but how many are that? - the act of leaving will in and of itself be plenty enough. That will then give May a lot more leeway than she has now. If the transition period is extended, who is going to notice and who is really going to care? Very few people indeed. The White paper is all about getting the UK to 30th March without falling off the cliff. The Northern Ireland backstop will never be invoked because if we do get to 30th March in tact a deal will eventually be done. That is a big if, though.
Perhaps but the fact UKIP are already up to 8% in today's Opinium poll is not a sign of most Leavers supporting this deal, indeed all the polling so far shows a clear majority of Leave voters oppose the Chequers Deal as too soft a Brexit deal and while fewer Remainers oppose it about a third of Remainers still think it is too hard a Brexit deal
Revelations today re Andrew Griffiths could lead to by-election as the people of Burton and Uttoxeter may object to having a depraved pervert as an MP.Tories have a 20% lead to defend from Labour.Hard ask for Labour unless ukip starts to cream off Tory votes but a potentially tricky by-election is all May and the Tories need right now.
As there is no recall power in the UK they can object all they like but unless Griffiths stands down there will be no by election
Yes there is.
Griffiths doesn't have to stand down for there to be a by election.
To be triggered by the Speaker not constituents and only in the event of a custodial sentence or suspension from the Commons etc and while Griffiths has been stupid no evidence yet of anything illegal
But you said 'but unless Griffiths stands down there will be no by election' and that has been proven to be demonstrably untrue.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This would be the Penny Mordaunt who signed an EDM in support of homeopathy? That Penny Mordaunt? What on earth has she done in office to make people think she has something to offer as PM?
One crumb of comfort for May is that 48% of Tory supporters back the Chequers proposal, while 26% oppose, according to Opinium.
I'm astonished. I doubt she is worried by reputation at this point, she just needs to eke out a deal, then resign next year, then Boris can pillory her and say how he never would have gotten us in to this mess and he at least will take us down the right path now. Corbyn will say the same thing.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This would be the Penny Mordaunt who signed an EDM in support of homeopathy? That Penny Mordaunt? What on earth has she done in office to make people think she has something to offer as PM?
May comments about Trump telling her to sue the EU screams quick look over there distraction attempt, as she might be crap at interviews but even she knows mention Trumps saying something dumb and it is catnip for the media.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This would be the Penny Mordaunt who signed an EDM in support of homeopathy? That Penny Mordaunt? What on earth has she done in office to make people think she has something to offer as PM?
Penny Mordaunt also organised and led the rally for Leadsom.
Possibly the most embarrasing thing since John Redwood 'performed' the Welsh national anthem.
Really? If BigG thinks she was poor I was assuming it was fairly catastrophic.
BigG probably has higher standards for his leader than I do.
Marr was badgering and interrupting and very irritating. I think he was trying to prove he is not a Tory or something. She did well in the circumstances. I was interested in what she had to say. It wasn't just platitudes.
I also liked her revelation that Trump's advice was "Sue the EU"! Typical Trump. I laughed out loud.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
I think Barnier will go along with May in preserving the ambiguous semantics until after the withdrawal agreement is done on 29 March next year. Then will come the 'Non Madame May' and we will end up with the EEA/CU deal at the end of the transition period, which, in effect, never ends.
That is the point at which Tory Leavers will seek to topple May, any VNOC now will just be a shot across her bows
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This would be the Penny Mordaunt who signed an EDM in support of homeopathy? That Penny Mordaunt? What on earth has she done in office to make people think she has something to offer as PM?
Penny Mordaunt also organised and led the rally for Leadsom.
Possibly the most embarrasing thing since John Redwood 'performed' the Welsh national anthem.
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This is interesting. It is what I said the other day we should look for. Take those two points in reverse order. What Number 10 is saying is the opposite of what it is doing. It is spinning that it could call the vote itself, implying full confidence that May will cruise to victory.
But it is threatening MPs to ensure no vote of no confidence -- because it knows the PM is doomed.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
In which case, her handling of the 2018 White Paper will prove to be be even more disatrous than her handling of the 2017 Manifesto.....
She may though still be able to get a transition deal but the party will demand it is ended by December 2020 if no FTA confirmed by then
There will be ult will have been unquestionably delivered. What happens next will largely be seen as detail as long as there are symbolic wins - blue passports, etc.
I agree on Ps then
Symbolic wins and no big downsides, I should have said.
But my hunch is that for a lot of Leave voters - not the obsessives, but how many are that? - the act of leaving will in and of itself be plenty enough. That will then give May a lot more leeway than she has now. If the transition period is extended, who is going to notice and who is really going to care? Very few people indeed. The White paper is all about getting the UK to 30th March without falling off the cliff. The Northern Ireland backstop will never be invoked because if we do get to 30th March in tact a deal will eventually be done. That is a big if, though.
Perhaps but the fact UKIP are already up to 8% in today's Opinium poll is not a sign of most Leavers supporting this deal, indeed all the polling so far shows a clear majority of Leave voters oppose the Chequers Deal as too soft a Brexit deal and while fewer Remainers oppose it about a third of Remainers still think it is too hard a Brexit deal
Yes, which is as reason to avoid a referendum on the deal - it'd lose. Assuming for the sake of argument that no deal is very bad, May and the party might need to accept unpopularity to get something through. To have any chance at the next election they need to sell it better though.
Brexiteers are seeking to persuade Johnson to use a resignation speech in the Commons — as early as tomorrow — to “do a Geoffrey Howe” and use an attack on May to trigger an avalanche of letters to the backbench 1922 committee to spark a vote of no confidence in May. “If Boris doesn’t go for it, he will never have another chance,” one said.
Johnson told friends last week he was “feeling very liberated and energised”, but one ally who spoke to him said he was enduring a “black dog” depression and was “sitting around in his pants wondering if he’s done the right thing”.
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This is interesting. It is what I said the other day we should look for. Take those two points in reverse order. What Number 10 is saying is the opposite of what it is doing. It is spinning that it could call the vote itself, implying full confidence that May will cruise to victory.
But it is threatening MPs to ensure no vote of no confidence -- because it knows the PM is doomed.
Deeds not words.
Perhaps, but then the rebels say the deal is terrible yet so far not enough are callingfor a vote to get someone in to change direction. Deeds not words.
Brexiteers are seeking to persuade Johnson to use a resignation speech in the Commons — as early as tomorrow — to “do a Geoffrey Howe” and use an attack on May to trigger an avalanche of letters to the backbench 1922 committee to spark a vote of no confidence in May. “If Boris doesn’t go for it, he will never have another chance,” one said.
Johnson told friends last week he was “feeling very liberated and energised”, but one ally who spoke to him said he was enduring a “black dog” depression and was “sitting around in his pants wondering if he’s done the right thing”.
If the Tories plotter were smart and organized this would be the plan all along. Few resignations, then other saying well this is a concern, but I am reasonable so let me see the details, oh no they are shit....
May comments about Trump telling her to sue the EU screams quick look over there distraction attempt, as she might be crap at interviews but even she knows mention Trumps saying something dumb and it is catnip for the media.
Marr asked her specifically what advice did Trump give her, and she told him. I don't think it was a dead cat to distract.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
I heard that a few days ago
On reflection I am more relaxed about Brexit and have no idea whether TM survives, or there is a leadership election, but it is obvious that everything is at deadlock and there is no possible way of seeing how this pans out between now and October
As a matter of interest did you catch up on the Airbus report in the business section of the guardian
I have just read it, Airbus clearly welcomes the Chequers Deal but what they really want is to ensure there is a transition deal if we leave the single market and customs union which May's plan makes more likely even if it is ultimately hard Brexit. Also seems Airbus is more likely to move work to China than the EU if it moves put of the UK so the EU would get little benefit from an Airbus departure.
Also note Broughton where the Airbus plant is is in Flintshire which voted 56% Leave
I know that you’re obsessed by individual voting patterns for or against, but you might consider the the now clear fact that the voters were actively lied to about the consequences of a leave vote. People who were low information voters are less so now. Perhaps, and I appreciate this would be a leap for you, Flintshire might think differently now.
There were ample warnings from big business leaders and Osborne about what they called the dire consequences for the economy of a Leave vote, if Leave voters still put sovereignty and immigration control first by voting Leave then fine but I am afraid I have little sympathy with those who say they were not warned of the economic consequences of a Leave vote
May comments about Trump telling her to sue the EU screams quick look over there distraction attempt, as she might be crap at interviews but even she knows mention Trumps saying something dumb and it is catnip for the media.
Marr asked her specifically what advice did Trump give her, and she told him. I don't think it was a dead cat to distract.
I don't know, she could have said something more diplomatic, it just screams look dead cat, DEAD CAT....as straight away my phone lit up with alerts.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This would be the Penny Mordaunt who signed an EDM in support of homeopathy? That Penny Mordaunt? What on earth has she done in office to make people think she has something to offer as PM?
Penny Mordaunt also organised and led the rally for Leadsom.
Possibly the most embarrasing thing since John Redwood 'performed' the Welsh national anthem.
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This is interesting. It is what I said the other day we should look for. Take those two points in reverse order. What Number 10 is saying is the opposite of what it is doing. It is spinning that it could call the vote itself, implying full confidence that May will cruise to victory.
But it is threatening MPs to ensure no vote of no confidence -- because it knows the PM is doomed.
Brexiteers are seeking to persuade Johnson to use a resignation speech in the Commons — as early as tomorrow — to “do a Geoffrey Howe” and use an attack on May to trigger an avalanche of letters to the backbench 1922 committee to spark a vote of no confidence in May. “If Boris doesn’t go for it, he will never have another chance,” one said.
Johnson told friends last week he was “feeling very liberated and energised”, but one ally who spoke to him said he was enduring a “black dog” depression and was “sitting around in his pants wondering if he’s done the right thing”.
If the Tories plotter were smart and organized this would be the plan all along. Few resignations, then other saying well this is a concern, but I am reasonable so let me see the details, oh no they are shit....
But I doubt that is how it has gone down.
I know of a few Tories who should be sympathetic to Boris but think he's a copper bottomed shit, skipping out of the COBRA meeting and the Balkans meeting.
As an aside I totally expect some Foreign Office memos to be leaked saying how Boris screwed up the whole Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe thing which should be even more fatal for his leadership chances.
May comments about Trump telling her to sue the EU screams quick look over there distraction attempt, as she might be crap at interviews but even she knows mention Trumps saying something dumb and it is catnip for the media.
No kidding. I don't see it harming her or garnering her support, so what other purpose could it have had? She may be on the brink but she still has her politicians instincts.
No - it was missold original but fundamentally there was an accelerating pace of integration. You only have to see some of Junker and others musings since Brexit.
We'll have to agree to differ on that. As an integrationist I've found the EU depressingly slow to move in that direction, partly because the new Eastern European members have very mixed feelings (passionate about sovereignty but also keen to be part of a booming union), and Juncker in particular is ultra-cautious about doing anything at all - talk to EU staff about any ideas for change and they shrug and say "Juncker thinks there's too much EU policy already, we can't get anything new through".
An interesting question is whether the new Commission will be different. The centre of gravity will be the Merkelite EPP, with the nationalists (AfD etc.) stronger and the moderate socialists (SPD etc.) much weaker, though the far left and Greens will gain some ground. Britain's withdrawal will kill the Eurosceptic ECR group - its remaining members will sign up elsewhere.
One crumb of comfort for May is that 48% of Tory supporters back the Chequers proposal, while 26% oppose, according to Opinium.
Given about a third of current Tory voters voted Remain that still means most Tory Leave voters do not support it
Huh ? SeanF wrote 48% of TORY supporters back Chequers and 26% oppose. Surely, they include both Tory Remain and Tory Leave supporters. What are you on today ?
May comments about Trump telling her to sue the EU screams quick look over there distraction attempt, as she might be crap at interviews but even she knows mention Trumps saying something dumb and it is catnip for the media.
Marr asked her specifically what advice did Trump give her, and she told him. I don't think it was a dead cat to distract.
She didn't have to tell him. It was breaking news when I woke up. Seems like a distraction to me.
Brexiteers are seeking to persuade Johnson to use a resignation speech in the Commons — as early as tomorrow — to “do a Geoffrey Howe” and use an attack on May to trigger an avalanche of letters to the backbench 1922 committee to spark a vote of no confidence in May. “If Boris doesn’t go for it, he will never have another chance,” one said.
Johnson told friends last week he was “feeling very liberated and energised”, but one ally who spoke to him said he was enduring a “black dog” depression and was “sitting around in his pants wondering if he’s done the right thing”.
If the Tories plotter were smart and organized this would be the plan all along. Few resignations, then other saying well this is a concern, but I am reasonable so let me see the details, oh no they are shit....
But I doubt that is how it has gone down.
I know of a few Tories who should be sympathetic to Boris but think he's a copper bottomed shit, skipping out of the COBRA meeting and the Balkans meeting.
As an aside I totally expect some Foreign Office memos to be leaked saying how Boris screwed up the whole Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe thing which should be even more fatal for his leadership chances.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
In which case, her handling of the 2018 White Paper will prove to be be even more disatrous than her handling of the 2017 Manifesto.....
She may though still be able to get a transition deal but the party will demand it is ended by December 2020 if no FTA confirmed by then
There etc.
I agree on that.
The key date now is no longer what happens in March 2019 but what has happened by December 2020 and the mood of the public and Tory voters and members and MPs then
Symbolic wins and no big downsides, I should have said.
But my That is a big if, though.
Perhaps but the fact UKIP are already up to 8% in today's Opinium poll is not a sign of most Leavers supporting this deal, indeed all the polling so far shows a clear majority of Leave voters oppose the Chequers Deal as too soft a Brexit deal and while fewer Remainers oppose it about a third of Remainers still think it is too hard a Brexit deal
A minority of Leavers plus all Remainers = a majority of people. That is clearly the way forward. And that is where we are likely to end up. It's all going to look very different once we have left. In the lead up to exit day, there will be fireworks, endless newspaper articles and pull-outs, the TV will be flooded with programmes. No-one will be able to miss it. And the referendum result will have been delivered. As long as there are no discernible downsides and a few symbols of departure are in place.that will be enough and May will have a hell of a lot more leeway than she does at the moment. If she can get to 30th March 2019, she will be home free.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This would be the Penny Mordaunt who signed an EDM in support of homeopathy? That Penny Mordaunt? What on earth has she done in office to make people think she has something to offer as PM?
Penny Mordaunt also organised and led the rally for Leadsom.
Possibly the most embarrasing thing since John Redwood 'performed' the Welsh national anthem.
Or alternatively, just completely pig ignorant (apologies to any pigs reading this). Her homeopathy views suggest to me an inability to think or comprehend relevant information. I think we may be struggling to get past @surby's very sound point that she has the right initials.
Brexiteers are seeking to persuade Johnson to use a resignation speech in the Commons — as early as tomorrow — to “do a Geoffrey Howe” and use an attack on May to trigger an avalanche of letters to the backbench 1922 committee to spark a vote of no confidence in May. “If Boris doesn’t go for it, he will never have another chance,” one said.
Johnson told friends last week he was “feeling very liberated and energised”, but one ally who spoke to him said he was enduring a “black dog” depression and was “sitting around in his pants wondering if he’s done the right thing”.
If the Tories plotter were smart and organized this would be the plan all along. Few resignations, then other saying well this is a concern, but I am reasonable so let me see the details, oh no they are shit....
But I doubt that is how it has gone down.
I know of a few Tories who should be sympathetic to Boris but think he's a copper bottomed shit, skipping out of the COBRA meeting and the Balkans meeting.
As an aside I totally expect some Foreign Office memos to be leaked saying how Boris screwed up the whole Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe thing which should be even more fatal for his leadership chances.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This would be the Penny Mordaunt who signed an EDM in support of homeopathy? That Penny Mordaunt? What on earth has she done in office to make people think she has something to offer as PM?
Penny Mordaunt also organised and led the rally for Leadsom.
Possibly the most embarrasing thing since John Redwood 'performed' the Welsh national anthem.
Or alternatively, just completely pig ignorant (apologies to any pigs reading this). Her homeopathy views suggest to me an inability to think or comprehend relevant information. I think we may be struggling to get past @surby's very sound point that she has the right initials.
As another Old Etonian pointed out to me 'BJ4PM' wasn't a good slogan more a sales pitch for mind bleach.
Brexiteers are seeking to persuade Johnson to use a resignation speech in the Commons — as early as tomorrow — to “do a Geoffrey Howe” and use an attack on May to trigger an avalanche of letters to the backbench 1922 committee to spark a vote of no confidence in May. “If Boris doesn’t go for it, he will never have another chance,” one said.
Johnson told friends last week he was “feeling very liberated and energised”, but one ally who spoke to him said he was enduring a “black dog” depression and was “sitting around in his pants wondering if he’s done the right thing”.
If the Tories plotter were smart and organized this would be the plan all along. Few resignations, then other saying well this is a concern, but I am reasonable so let me see the details, oh no they are shit....
But I doubt that is how it has gone down.
I know of a few Tories who should be sympathetic to Boris but think he's a copper bottomed shit, skipping out of the COBRA meeting and the Balkans meeting.
As an aside I totally expect some Foreign Office memos to be leaked saying how Boris screwed up the whole Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe thing which should be even more fatal for his leadership chances.
BBC reporting that the family think Boris was doing a good job. I know, this surprised me as well.
They shouldn't worry, Jeremy Hunt will bring her home as he's very competent, and it will ensure he is Mrs May's successor.
You are talking about that Iranian woman but it would not surprise me if the same is true of a deal with the EU. He will be vastly more assistance to May than Boris ever was. She will have a sounding board she can actually trust for a start.
Revelations today re Andrew Griffiths could lead to by-election as the people of Burton and Uttoxeter may object to having a depraved pervert as an MP.Tories have a 20% lead to defend from Labour.Hard ask for Labour unless ukip starts to cream off Tory votes but a potentially tricky by-election is all May and the Tories need right now.
On the Lower East Side the Dauphin of New Labour types 'Uttoxeter' into Google Maps.
Unfortunately I am not able to view video at the moment so apologies if my general remarks repeat what you say or are irrelevant to it.
Empirically, membership of the European Union is best for the UK. It's multilateral, which suits a medium powered country that wants to spread its influence. We're at the table helping to shape decisions in our interest. It's a collective of liberal democracies like us, it promotes the rule of law as we want to do and it's in Europe - our continent. This translates into useful programmes, greater prospects and more trade and more prosperity than we would otherwise have.
If these are things we want, it goes without saying that we will get far less of them after Brexit.
It shouldn't need saying, but unfortunately we do need to say it, because there is widespread denial about the consequences of Brexit. We won't get what we want, I suggest, because we had it but rejected it. It will instead be a messy distracting decade of damage limitation.
We had want we wanted but the Brussels fanatics with their ongoing drive for integration fucked it all up
“We had what we wanted.”
One of the few true things you’ve said of late.
That is offensive and inaccurate.
You may disagree with me - that is your right - but i never lie
That's a little pompous and over-sensitive. There's a wide range of statements which fall between being true, and being a lie. You need to add intent to falsehood to make a lie, and there's no such accusation in the post you responded to.
Gardenwalker has a history of accusing me of lying without providing evidence
My reputation and brand depends on honesty
I don’t think I’ve accused you of outright lying. You’re confusing me with Mr Jessop (I think).
I’m just annoyed by your progression from seemingly sensible patrician Tory liberal to defending Trump while claiming Brexit will be vindicated in 100 years.
I’m not defending Trump - I think he’s a prat and a fool of the first order.
I just get irritated by politicians and journalists who ignore diplomatic convention or constitutional proprietary to make a point.
For instance claiming that Brexiteers were hypocritics from not complaining about Trump’s comments on a trade deal and equating it with Obama’s comment while ignoring the fact that they are subtly different and - in diplomacy - nuances matter.
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
In which case, her handling of the 2018 White Paper will prove to be be even more disatrous than her handling of the 2017 Manifesto.....
She may though still be able to get a transition deal but the party will demand it is ended by December 2020 if no FTA confirmed by then
There etc.
I agree on that.
The key date now is no longer what happens in March 2019 but what has happened by December 2020 and the mood of the public and Tory voters and members and MPs then
Symbolic wins and no big downsides, I should have said.
But my That is a big if, though.
Perhaps but the fact UKIP are already up to 8% in today's Opinium poll is not a sign of most Leavers supporting this deal, indeed all the polling so far shows a clear majority of Leave voters oppose the Chequers Deal as too soft a Brexit deal and while fewer Remainers oppose it about a third of Remainers still think it is too hard a Brexit deal
A minority of Leavers plus all Remainers = a majority of people. That is clearly the way forward.
It was a suggestion made 2 years ago (if not quite so stark) for a start. But for one thing, it would appear not all remainers are on board. Some because they see a chance to remain out of this, some because they too agree the proposal is not a proper brexit. Hence the difficulties.
Unfortunately I am not able to view video at the moment so apologies if my general remarks repeat what you say or are irrelevant to it.
Empirically, membership of the European Union is best for the UK. It's multilateral, which suits a medium powered country that wants to spread its influence. We're at the table helping to shape decisions in our interest. It's a collective of liberal democracies like us, it promotes the rule of law as we want to do and it's in Europe - our continent. This translates into useful programmes, greater prospects and more trade and more prosperity than we would otherwise have.
If these are things we want, it goes without saying that we will get far less of them after Brexit.
It shouldn't need saying, but unfortunately we do need to say it, because there is widespread denial about the consequences of Brexit. We won't get what we want, I suggest, because we had it but rejected it. It will instead be a messy distracting decade of damage limitation.
We had want we wanted but the Brussels fanatics with their ongoing drive for integration fucked it all up
“We had what we wanted.”
One of the few true things you’ve said of late.
That is offensive and inaccurate.
You may disagree with me - that is your right - but i never lie
That's a little pompous and over-sensitive. There's a wide range of statements which fall between being true, and being a lie. You need to add intent to falsehood to make a lie, and there's no such accusation in the post you responded to.
Gardenwalker has a history of accusing me of lying without providing evidence
May comments about Trump telling her to sue the EU screams quick look over there distraction attempt, as she might be crap at interviews but even she knows mention Trumps saying something dumb and it is catnip for the media.
Marr asked her specifically what advice did Trump give her, and she told him. I don't think it was a dead cat to distract.
She didn't have to tell him. It was breaking news when I woke up. Seems like a distraction to me.
Perhaps it was a deliberate distraction. It is the headline on BBC news. I thought not. She was prompted to say it. She was obviously amused by Trump's advice and she didn't mind disclosing it. She thinks he is a joke.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
This would be the Penny Mordaunt who signed an EDM in support of homeopathy? That Penny Mordaunt? What on earth has she done in office to make people think she has something to offer as PM?
To be fair homeopathy, like placebo, has its place in healthcare. The issue is the price at which it is reimbursed. I’m a great fan of value based pricing for pharmaceuticals
Esther McVey and Penny Mordaunt on 'resignation suicide watch' according to paper review on Marr
Part of the second wave, once Brussels responds.
If Brussels ays "OK, OK, you can have the White Paper as Brexit", then they can all claim they played their part in facing down the Eurocracy. Anyone think that is going to happen though?
Barnier is playing for time but I expect a 'Non Madame May' in due course much as De Gaulle refused Macmillan's EEC entry plans almost half a century ago, at least as far as a FTA goes
In which case, her handling of the 2018 White Paper will prove to be be even more disatrous than her handling of the 2017 Manifesto.....
She may though still be able to get a transition deal but the party will demand it is ended by December 2020 if no FTA confirmed by then
There etc.
I agree on that.
The key date now is no longer what happens in March 2019 but what has happened by December 2020 and the mood of the public and Tory voters and members and MPs then
Symbolic wins and no big downsides, I should have said.
But my That is a big if, though.
Perhaps but the fact UKIP are already up to 8% in today's Opinium poll is not a sign of most Leavers supporting this deal, indeed all the polling so far shows a clear majority of Leave voters oppose the Chequers Deal as too soft a Brexit deal and while fewer Remainers oppose it about a third of Remainers still think it is too hard a Brexit deal
A minority of Leavers plus all Remainers = a majority of people. That is clearly the way forward.
It was a suggestion made 2 years ago (if not quite so stark) for a start. But for one thing, it would appear not all remainers are on board. Some because they see a chance to remain out of this, some because they too agree the proposal is not a proper brexit. Hence the difficulties.
Once we have left we cannot remain. As I say, all May needs to do is get to 30th March without the UK having fallen off a cliff. Some current Remainers will then campaign for the UK to rejoin the EU, but at the same time they are not going to oppose the softest possible Brexit. And while some Leavers will, others will not as they will have got what they wanted.
Comments
With hindsight the Tories really should have sorted some of these issues out once she had lost the majority in the election and either gone hard Brexit with full preparation or soft Brexit under someone like Hammond who did not have her baggage. The failure to make a decision is in itself a decision and allowing May to stagger on putting every hard question off for another day was a succession of poor decisions by the party. But we are where we are and now have to live with the consequences of failing to decide.
I would like two votes on separate ballot papers:
1. "With the agreement we have reached with the EU........do you support the UK to REMAIN in the EU or LEAVE the EU"
If and only if the above results in a LEAVE vote
2. Do you support the agreement the UK has reached with the EU or do you support to leave the EU without any agreement ?
The Moggsters will, of course, vote LEAVE in (1) and no deal in (2).
Whether May or Hammond led the party soft Brexit would never be easy to agree with the EU in a way the party and its voters and mbers would accept which means longer term we have to also be prepared for hard Brexit
The key date now is no longer what happens in March 2019 but what has happened by December 2020 and the mood of the public and Tory voters and members and MPs then
Griffiths doesn't have to stand down for there to be a by election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_MPs_Act_2015
Also leaving a second vote option open
But my hunch is that for a lot of Leave voters - not the obsessives, but how many are that? - the act of leaving will in and of itself be plenty enough. That will then give May a lot more leeway than she has now. If the transition period is extended, who is going to notice and who is really going to care? Very few people indeed. The White paper is all about getting the UK to 30th March without falling off the cliff. The Northern Ireland backstop will never be invoked because if we do get to 30th March in tact a deal will eventually be done. That is a big if, though.
You’re confusing me with Mr Jessop (I think).
I’m just annoyed by your progression from seemingly sensible patrician Tory liberal to defending Trump while claiming Brexit will be vindicated in 100 years.
•Sources said the prime minister was “very emotional” after meeting the former party leader Iain Duncan Smith on Wednesday — though No 10 denied she had cried
•Cabinet ministers Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey are privately still contemplating resignation, with Brexiteer backbenchers pushing the slogan “PM for PM”
•Rebel MPs said 40 letters had been submitted to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May, eight short of the number required
•Constituency bosses are leaning on MPs loyal to May to tell them to block her plans or get rid of her
•Whips threatened MPs in marginal seats with the loss of campaign funds at the next election unless they withdraw their letters.
•One plan being floated by May loyalists would even see the whips put in letters to force a leadership vote in the belief that the prime minister would win, since Tory rules mean she could not be challenged for another year.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/davis-brands-pm-dishonest-over-his-brexit-alternative-w9dxnqrwh
https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1018270955091709952
Date ? As soon as practically possible after any agreement has been reached with the EU. Even as late as early March but early or mid-February would be best.
If the result of (1) is REMAIN then Art.50 is withdrawn. Primary legislation can be whisked through Parliament in a week.
If (1) is LEAVE and (2) is No Deal, then it is armageddon time.
May I also note my utter disdain that some vile PB miscreant posted an odious slur in accusing me of being a "posh Tory".
I'm far too grand to be determined as simply "posh" and any link to these contemporary arriviste Tories is just too vulgar to comment on.
Departs huffily stage right .....
A bit like a premier league manager bigging up a one nil victory over Barnsley in the cup.
Marr was badgering and interrupting and very irritating. I think he was trying to prove he is not a Tory or something. She did well in the circumstances. I was interested in what she had to say. It wasn't just platitudes.
I also liked her revelation that Trump's advice was "Sue the EU"! Typical Trump. I laughed out loud.
Davis launched an expletive-laden rant at May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, at a meeting in No 10 last Saturday, declaring Downing Street’s arguments “bollocks” and accusing May of having “bullied the cabinet” into backing her plans.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-odd-couple-clicked-at-last-but-tory-plotters-won-t-be-pacified-as-easily-as-trump-3l26nkgcd
Possibly the most embarrasing thing since John Redwood 'performed' the Welsh national anthem.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2016/jul/07/andrea-leadsom-tory-leadership-supporters-march-parliament-video
But it is threatening MPs to ensure no vote of no confidence -- because it knows the PM is doomed.
Deeds not words.
Twitter rumblings, so obviously not necessarily accurate, suggest that the more people hear of the proposals the less they like them.
Brexiteers are seeking to persuade Johnson to use a resignation speech in the Commons — as early as tomorrow — to “do a Geoffrey Howe” and use an attack on May to trigger an avalanche of letters to the backbench 1922 committee to spark a vote of no confidence in May. “If Boris doesn’t go for it, he will never have another chance,” one said.
Johnson told friends last week he was “feeling very liberated and energised”, but one ally who spoke to him said he was enduring a “black dog” depression and was “sitting around in his pants wondering if he’s done the right thing”.
Also WTO will decimate aerospace industry in the UK
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1018120351132409856
But I doubt that is how it has gone down.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/penny-mordaunt-andrew-marr-uk-veto-tory-minister-accused-of-flat-out-lying-over-turkey-joining-the-a7041956.html
As an aside I totally expect some Foreign Office memos to be leaked saying how Boris screwed up the whole Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe thing which should be even more fatal for his leadership chances.
An interesting question is whether the new Commission will be different. The centre of gravity will be the Merkelite EPP, with the nationalists (AfD etc.) stronger and the moderate socialists (SPD etc.) much weaker, though the far left and Greens will gain some ground. Britain's withdrawal will kill the Eurosceptic ECR group - its remaining members will sign up elsewhere.
If you're not cheering for Croatia today then you're not really deserving of a British passport, blue or otherwise.
BBC reporting that the family think Boris was doing a good job. I know, this surprised me as well.
I just get irritated by politicians and journalists who ignore diplomatic convention or constitutional proprietary to make a point.
For instance claiming that Brexiteers were hypocritics from not complaining about Trump’s comments on a trade deal and equating it with Obama’s comment while ignoring the fact that they are subtly different and - in diplomacy - nuances matter.
The BBC should be better quality than that