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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory leadership – an alternative view

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory leadership – an alternative view

David’s piece yesterday was very insightful on the mechanics for how a new Conservative leader could be elected. I wanted to add a few thoughts on what has happened over the past week, and what are the betting implications on the political front.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Interesting but don't you think you are allowing your own political view to impact on your betting?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    Interesting but don't you think you are allowing your own political view to impact on your betting?

    For shame, sir! The very thought that that could happen;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited July 2018
    Is there any evidence that it is working class Tory voters being lost? I can see why it is assumed (working class=Leave), but is there polling to back that up? Many, many well to do people voted Leave as well. How do we know it is not them angry with the Chequers deal?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kle4 said:

    As I was walking to the shop in this darndedly unBritish heat, I pondered an interesting (and perhaps ridiculous) question:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Yes, it seems ridiculous. But UKIP are currently rudderless, and Farage is very much damaged goods. Boris stands little chance (IMO) of becoming Conservative leader (*), and has an ego the size of a mountain. He's also a proven winner, has held high office, and knows lots of useful people.

    Could he switch over to UKIP, become its leader, and take it on as a more right-wing Conservative party, professionally run (which they were not before) ? He could mould the party into something quite interesting electorally.

    (*) get your bets on now ...

    Like all the Lab non-corbynites very unhappy with the direction of things, he wouldn't want to lose the brand name of Tory.
    That will be a big reason for him not to do it. On the other hand, he is a big fan of Churchill, who flitted between the Conservatives and Liberals. His time as Foreign Secretary was hardly filled with glory, and the chances of him getting another high office within the Conservatives are limited. If he can't be PM, what else is there for him to fill his ego with? What else will get his face on the front page and TV screens?

    Taking over a party and moulding it might well appeal to him: the chance too make history like his hero. It'll also be a new challenge for someone who has rather admirably done many different things (if not always successfully).

    I'm not saying this will happen; just that it might appeal to him.
    This seems to me such an obvious possibility, now it has been pointed out, that I should like to see some odds on it. I suspect it happened it would be a joint op with farage, with uncle don in the background.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    edited July 2018
    Yawn. Another Pump and Dump lead from someone who has doubtless backed his candidate at long odds and hopes to cash out when her odds come in.

    McVey has hardly been sure footed since her elevation.

    PB should have strict standards of disclosure, as for a site with financial/investment commentary.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    As I was walking to the shop in this darndedly unBritish heat, I pondered an interesting (and perhaps ridiculous) question:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Yes, it seems ridiculous. But UKIP are currently rudderless, and Farage is very much damaged goods. Boris stands little chance (IMO) of becoming Conservative leader (*), and has an ego the size of a mountain. He's also a proven winner, has held high office, and knows lots of useful people.

    Could he switch over to UKIP, become its leader, and take it on as a more right-wing Conservative party, professionally run (which they were not before) ? He could mould the party into something quite interesting electorally.

    (*) get your bets on now ...

    Like all the Lab non-corbynites very unhappy with the direction of things, he wouldn't want to lose the brand name of Tory.
    That will be a big reason for him not to do it. On the other hand, he is a big fan of Churchill, who flitted between the Conservatives and Liberals. His time as Foreign Secretary was hardly filled with glory, and the chances of him getting another high office within the Conservatives are limited. If he can't be PM, what else is there for him to fill his ego with? What else will get his face on the front page and TV screens?

    Taking over a party and moulding it might well appeal to him: the chance too make history like his hero. It'll also be a new challenge for someone who has rather admirably done many different things (if not always successfully).

    I'm not saying this will happen; just that it might appeal to him.
    This seems to me such an obvious possibility, now it has been pointed out, that I should like to see some odds on it. I suspect it happened it would be a joint op with farage, with uncle don in the background.
    I think snobbery would be the biggest obstacle. For all that being a second rate Churchill impersonator is a bit crap, it's a million miles better than a pound shop Mosley, or even worse, a consorter with the likes of Farage & Banks.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    edited July 2018

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    As I was walking to the shop in this darndedly unBritish heat, I pondered an interesting (and perhaps ridiculous) question:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Yes, it seems ridiculous. But UKIP are currently rudderless, and Farage is very much damaged goods. Boris stands little chance (IMO) of becoming Conservative leader (*), and has an ego the size of a mountain. He's also a proven winner, has held high office, and knows lots of useful people.

    Could he switch over to UKIP, become its leader, and take it on as a more right-wing Conservative party, professionally run (which they were not before) ? He could mould the party into something quite interesting electorally.

    (*) get your bets on now ...

    Like all the Lab non-corbynites very unhappy with the direction of things, he wouldn't want to lose the brand name of Tory.
    That will be a big reason for him not to do it. On the other hand, he is a big fan of Churchill, who flitted between the Conservatives and Liberals. His time as Foreign Secretary was hardly filled with glory, and the chances of him getting another high office within the Conservatives are limited. If he can't be PM, what else is there for him to fill his ego with? What else will get his face on the front page and TV screens?

    Taking over a party and moulding it might well appeal to him: the chance too make history like his hero. It'll also be a new challenge for someone who has rather admirably done many different things (if not always successfully).

    I'm not saying this will happen; just that it might appeal to him.
    This seems to me such an obvious possibility, now it has been pointed out, that I should like to see some odds on it. I suspect it happened it would be a joint op with farage, with uncle don in the background.
    I think snobbery would be the biggest obstacle. For all that being a second rate Churchill impersonator is a bit crap, it's a million miles better than a pound shop Mosley, or even worse, a consorter with the likes of Farage & Banks.
    It is however very likely his only chance of becoming a party leader. And the one thing we all know about Boris is that he is a cr*p follower.

    The problem is that his belief in Brexit is convenience not conviction.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    France!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    IanB2 said:

    Yawn. Another Pump and Dump lead from someone who has doubtless backed his candidate at long odds and hopes to cash out when her odds come in.

    McVey has hardly been sure footed since her elevation.

    PB should have strict standards of disclosure, as for a site with financial/investment commentary.

    Quite a serious accusation. I trust you have evidence.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Own goal. Oops.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    As regards the Vote of No Confidence, I think there will be a number of things going through a Tory MP's mind:

    1. Will a new leader come from my faction of the party? If not, have I traded May for something worse?

    2. Will a new leader be able to get anything better from the EU? Or will the reduced time until Brexit Day have reduced our leverage over the EU even more?

    3. Will a new leader improve my chance of re-election in 2022, or will it potentially split the party, and result in me losing my seat?

    Put together, I can see Mrs May's opponents getting the 48 or so votes to force a contest. But, right now, I cannot see them getting enough to topple her.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    I suppose 100/1 is 100/1.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yawn. Another Pump and Dump lead from someone who has doubtless backed his candidate at long odds and hopes to cash out when her odds come in.

    McVey has hardly been sure footed since her elevation.

    PB should have strict standards of disclosure, as for a site with financial/investment commentary.

    Quite a serious accusation. I trust you have evidence.
    Let's have the disclosure, then?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    IanB2 said:

    Own goal. Oops.

    No good for my Griezmann first scorer bet. The fear is France will just shut the game down.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction? What - exactly - are the damages the UK would be claiming?

    If I were Mrs May, and I'm glad I'm not, the temptation to reply with "Without a doubt, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard" would have been overwhelming.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,550
    Has there just been a goal? Lots of cheering and clapping in our street.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Good goal - sign him on Jose
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    1-1, you could see it coming. Both from set pieces.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction? What - exactly - are the damages the UK would be claiming?

    If I were Mrs May, and I'm glad I'm not, the temptation to reply with "Without a doubt, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard" would have been overwhelming.

    Well he is American. If all else fails bring in the lawyers.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction? What - exactly - are the damages the UK would be claiming?

    If I were Mrs May, and I'm glad I'm not, the temptation to reply with "Without a doubt, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard" would have been overwhelming.

    His record of successful legal challenges in the UK/Scotland isn't exactly stellar.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction?

    The CJEU of course!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    1-1, you could see it coming. Both from set pieces.

    Croatia's was an open play goal, the set piece delivery was over. Cracking goal
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    Djokovic wins his first Slam in over two years.

    Now for the footy!

    Oh, I missed two goals!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    As I was walking to the shop in this darndedly unBritish heat, I pondered an interesting (and perhaps ridiculous) question:

    Might Boris jump ship to UKIP?

    Yes, it seems ridiculous. But UKIP are currently rudderless, and Farage is very much damaged goods. Boris stands little chance (IMO) of becoming Conservative leader (*), and has an ego the size of a mountain. He's also a proven winner, has held high office, and knows lots of useful people.

    Could he switch over to UKIP, become its leader, and take it on as a more right-wing Conservative party, professionally run (which they were not before) ? He could mould the party into something quite interesting electorally.

    (*) get your bets on now ...

    Like all the Lab non-corbynites very unhappy with the direction of things, he wouldn't want to lose the brand name of Tory.
    That will be a big reason for him not to do it. On the other hand, he is a big fan of Churchill, who flitted between the Conservatives and Liberals. His time as Foreign Secretary was hardly filled with glory, and the chances of him getting another high office within the Conservatives are limited. If he can't be PM, what else is there for him to fill his ego with? What else will get his face on the front page and TV screens?

    Taking over a party and moulding it might well appeal to him: the chance too make history like his hero. It'll also be a new challenge for someone who has rather admirably done many different things (if not always successfully).

    I'm not saying this will happen; just that it might appeal to him.
    This seems to me such an obvious possibility, now it has been pointed out, that I should like to see some odds on it. I suspect it happened it would be a joint op with farage, with uncle don in the background.
    I think snobbery would be the biggest obstacle. For all that being a second rate Churchill impersonator is a bit crap, it's a million miles better than a pound shop Mosley, or even worse, a consorter with the likes of Farage & Banks.
    Any port in a storm. He may think he can do a Blair and remake New Ukip in his own image. I am not sure what else there is for him to do; probably even the Hignfy audience has had enough of him.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    If the scenario above plays out, expect 2019 as the election year. A new leader will want to claim authority and Corbyn will be keen to fight.

    Oh no! Not another one! As Brenda from Bristol might say. Of course that depends on how stupid the new Conservative leader is, so its a distinct possibility.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Penalty, wow.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction? What - exactly - are the damages the UK would be claiming?

    If I were Mrs May, and I'm glad I'm not, the temptation to reply with "Without a doubt, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard" would have been overwhelming.

    May's delivery on Marr left little doubt as to what she thought about it....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    That's never deliberate in a million years
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928

    Penalty, wow.

    Looks a bit dodgy
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Handballs are being given far too readily with VAR, the one failing of the system
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,781
    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction?

    The CJEU of course!
    I wondered that :)

    It would be a courageous decision to sue the EU in the CJEU/ECJ because... errr... they weren't offering what we wanted.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098

    Penalty, wow.

    Looks a bit dodgy
    The hand clearly punted the ball behind the goal, and the ball would otherwise have headed into the box where several French players were waiting. Intent is difficult to infer from a video, but his arm must have had some rigidity to change the direction of a fast moving ball so dramatically.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    These Croatians don’t give up. When the world ends, they’ll be the last people on earth.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction? What - exactly - are the damages the UK would be claiming?

    If I were Mrs May, and I'm glad I'm not, the temptation to reply with "Without a doubt, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard" would have been overwhelming.

    May's delivery on Marr left little doubt as to what she thought about it....
    Yes - f'ing moron
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Pulpstar said:

    That's never deliberate in a million years

    I think it was. He sweeps his hand downwards and away. That makes it deliberate to me. The sort of thing that defenders have got away with from time immemorial but , like reviews in cricket, it is much more difficult to do now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction? What - exactly - are the damages the UK would be claiming?

    If I were Mrs May, and I'm glad I'm not, the temptation to reply with "Without a doubt, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard" would have been overwhelming.

    May's delivery on Marr left little doubt as to what she thought about it....
    Yes - f'ing moron
    Who
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098

    These Croatians don’t give up. When the world ends, they’ll be the last people on earth.

    Surely a few Brexiters will survive to froth about being dominated by Croatia?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction? What - exactly - are the damages the UK would be claiming?

    If I were Mrs May, and I'm glad I'm not, the temptation to reply with "Without a doubt, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard" would have been overwhelming.

    May's delivery on Marr left little doubt as to what she thought about it....
    Yes - f'ing moron
    Who
    Trump of course :)
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    IanB2 said:

    These Croatians don’t give up. When the world ends, they’ll be the last people on earth.

    Surely a few Brexiters will survive to froth about being dominated by Croatia?
    LOL :lol:
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited July 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    rpjs said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction?

    The CJEU of course!
    I wondered that :)

    It would be a courageous decision to sue the EU in the CJEU/ECJ because... errr... they weren't offering what we wanted.
    I think the case could be on article 50. It states taking into account the future framework of the relationship. The UK Government could argue that the EU has refused to discuss the future relationship. Still be the ECJ though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    IanB2 said:

    These Croatians don’t give up. When the world ends, they’ll be the last people on earth.

    Surely a few Brexiters will survive to froth about being dominated by Croatia?
    England are nowhere near this level
  • IanB2 said:

    Yawn. Another Pump and Dump lead from someone who has doubtless backed his candidate at long odds and hopes to cash out when her odds come in.

    McVey has hardly been sure footed since her elevation.

    PB should have strict standards of disclosure, as for a site with financial/investment commentary.

    From one Ian to Ian on your points,

    1. I have backed McVey (and Mourdant for that matter) but on straightforward odds, mainly at Ladbrokes, of 100/1 so I win or lose the bet. So I have put my money where my mouth is because I believe in the bet (as well as cover if I am wrong) but I do not benefit from the odds coming in and persuading people to follow my line.

    2. Re my "success" ratio, I disclosed in a previous post on the US midterms that I had done very well on Brexit and Trump in 2016 but badly with the 2017 GE ex-Scotland

    3. In answering Mike's question, I would hope not as that is an easy way to lose money - I do support Brexit but my main criticism of May is that I am in the camp that believes that, to negotiate well, you have to threaten to walk away. Suddenly, the EU has been a lot more conciliatory towards Italy since the latter started mouthing off.

    DavidL, thank you for your defence and you are right, IanB2 should be careful in what he writes. His comments may be interpreted as suggesting a fraudulent intent in some circumstances.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2018
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited July 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction? What - exactly - are the damages the UK would be claiming?

    If I were Mrs May, and I'm glad I'm not, the temptation to reply with "Without a doubt, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard" would have been overwhelming.

    May's delivery on Marr left little doubt as to what she thought about it....
    Yes - f'ing moron
    Who
    Trump of course :)
    I know - just being a bit naughty - sorry
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Um titties timewasting
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    edited July 2018

    IanB2 said:

    Yawn. Another Pump and Dump lead from someone who has doubtless backed his candidate at long odds and hopes to cash out when her odds come in.

    McVey has hardly been sure footed since her elevation.

    PB should have strict standards of disclosure, as for a site with financial/investment commentary.

    From one Ian to Ian on your points,

    1. I have backed McVey (and Mourdant for that matter) but on straightforward odds, mainly at Ladbrokes, of 100/1 so I win or lose the bet. So I have put my money where my mouth is because I believe in the bet (as well as cover if I am wrong) but I do not benefit from the odds coming in and persuading people to follow my line.

    2. Re my "success" ratio, I disclosed in a previous post on the US midterms that I had done very well on Brexit and Trump in 2016 but badly with the 2017 GE ex-Scotland

    3. In answering Mike's question, I would hope not as that is an easy way to lose money - I do support Brexit but my main criticism of May is that I am in the camp that believes that, to negotiate well, you have to threaten to walk away. Suddenly, the EU has been a lot more conciliatory towards Italy since the latter started mouthing off.

    DavidL, thank you for your defence and you are right, IanB2 should be careful in what he writes. His comments may be interpreted as suggesting a fraudulent intent in some circumstances.

    OK, fair enough, and thanks for the speedy response. I am happy to retract any implication of impropriety.

    The site would nevertheless benefit from a disclosure policy from all lead writers. If only to avoid such discussions as this.
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457
    edited July 2018
    Big G, Screaming Eagle, Sean Thomas, all others of you bumped and bruised, dazed and increasingly delirious on this rocky, winding crazy road.

    We love you. But you need know there is no such thing as a soft Brexit. There never was an option for a Soft Brexit.

    From the moment we joined in 73 there was always the question is our influence over decision making via council of ministers and representatives in commission and EU Parliament and input into drafting of treaty’s effective enough to justify and compensate for adopting European law and regulation above our own parliament, it’s an argument pro Europeans never won, our input into EU democracy has never felt influential enough to justify degree of surrender of democracy from our own parliament. In fact, increasingly over 45 years the pro Europeans stuck their heads in the sand each time that question came up (sweetly underlined by Brown not even turning up at signing of Britains last Treaty in the EU his government helped create). But, Every definition of soft Brexit we withdraw from influencing EU parliament, commission and councils, yet tie ourselves to their regulations and decisions made by those EU institutions. Not only is that clearly not a better deal it doesn’t even make a shred of logical sense to any sane and thoughtful person.

    Let’s call out soft Brexit for what it really is. What is being called Soft Brexit is Business Brexit designed to protect, through spin, fudge and lies, negatives of Globalisation such as zero control of borders to allow business to suck in what they want, the very issues 17M UK voters acted against. 17M voters genuine in concerns, that Soft Brexit is Business Brexit surrendering Britain’s democracy and sovereignty to a Global Commerce that cares not for voters or referendums or state democracy, but exploits freedoms which simultaneously worry us workers and voters. Even many remainers recognise folly of pandering to global commerce, want control of borders, don’t want wages driven down by multinationals.

    Business Brexit is your Soft Brexit, pandering to worst of globalisation in disregard for voters concerns, what is driven purely by profit, not planning and managing impact of immigration, deindustrialisation, re skilling and rebalancing a nations economy our governments need to be empowered to manage and achieve.

    That’s two coherent and solid reasons why Soft Brexit is so bad it’s not really an option, there is another compelling reason Soft Brexit is the worst Brexit, it will end up putting extremists and fruitcakes, such as those who believe the NHS is a relic of a soviet era, in power, the establishment parties who make soft Brexit, the naive members of those parties who help build such a “folly”, swept away by the betrayed voters .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That's never deliberate in a million years

    I think it was. He sweeps his hand downwards and away. That makes it deliberate to me. The sort of thing that defenders have got away with from time immemorial but , like reviews in cricket, it is much more difficult to do now.
    No, it really wasn't - the problem is everything looks deliberate in slow motion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    edited July 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That's never deliberate in a million years

    I think it was. He sweeps his hand downwards and away. That makes it deliberate to me. The sort of thing that defenders have got away with from time immemorial but , like reviews in cricket, it is much more difficult to do now.
    No, it really wasn't - the problem is everything looks deliberate in slow motion.
    Not convinced. The change in trajectory of the ball was quite dramatic. Doesn't look like an accident to me. Maybe instinct rather than deliberate, but he punted the ball behind the goal all the same.

    Edit/ on the slomo he appears to open his hand as the ball approaches
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    Musk has been showing serious signs of dickery lately. He seems to have finally tipped over the edge now.

    https://twitter.com/tomgara/status/1018501070652432384
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That's never deliberate in a million years

    I think it was. He sweeps his hand downwards and away. That makes it deliberate to me. The sort of thing that defenders have got away with from time immemorial but , like reviews in cricket, it is much more difficult to do now.
    No, it really wasn't - the problem is everything looks deliberate in slow motion.
    He deliberately moved his hand down to where the ball could easily, nay likely be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    That's never deliberate in a million years

    I think it was. He sweeps his hand downwards and away. That makes it deliberate to me. The sort of thing that defenders have got away with from time immemorial but , like reviews in cricket, it is much more difficult to do now.
    No, it really wasn't - the problem is everything looks deliberate in slow motion.
    Not convinced. The change in trajectory of the ball was quite dramatic. Doesn't look like an accident to me. Maybe instinct rather than deliberate, but he punted the ball behind the goal all the same.

    Edit/ on the slomo he appears to open his hand as the ball approaches
    Jees
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I see Croatia are beating France, but struggling somewhat against the referee.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004


    In reply to Lord of Reason

    Thank you for your explanation but I am pro business and in particular pro Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover, and others and as both John Mann and Tom Watson affirmed on this mornings tv the deal has to protect these businesses and jobs and John Mann supports Chequers and he is a Brexiteer.

    The political class are in chaos and there are widespread views from Norway option right through to walking out.I hope a deal is done that respects the referendum but also our economy. I do see Chequers failing and at that point the HOC have to take over the process in cross party agreement in the National interest.

    The future of TM is not my concern and am content for a VNOC. Indeed it may be time for Boris to take over and own the mess that is coming
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098



    In reply to Lord of Reason

    Thank you for your explanation but I am pro business and in particular pro Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover, and others and as both John Mann and Tom Watson affirmed on this mornings tv the deal has to protect these businesses and jobs and John Mann supports Chequers and he is a Brexiteer.

    The political class are in chaos and there are widespread views from Norway option right through to walking out.I hope a deal is done that respects the referendum but also our economy. I do see Chequers failing and at that point the HOC have to take over the process in cross party agreement in the National interest.

    The future of TM is not my concern and am content for a VNOC. Indeed it may be time for Boris to take over and own the mess that is coming

    Rawnsley's take in the Obs: "So Mrs May’s grand plan has left her stranded in no woman’s land. She can’t go back. Abandoning her plan and retreating behind her old red lines might win a temporary respite from the furies of the Brexit ultras, but that relief would be purchased at the cost of shredding what remains of her authority over the government and destroying what’s left of her credibility in Europe. Mrs May can’t stand still, not for very long anyway, because the EU won’t buy her plan as it is and she hasn’t got a majority for it in parliament. She can’t go back. She can’t stand still. She can only go forward. If, that is, she has any strength left to go forward. That would involve taking further steps towards a softer version of Brexit, a move that would arouse even more intense rage against her from within her party"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    The laws of the he should probably be changed and the word deliberate removed - everything looks deliberate under super slomo
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Yawn. Another Pump and Dump lead from someone who has doubtless backed his candidate at long odds and hopes to cash out when her odds come in.

    McVey has hardly been sure footed since her elevation.

    PB should have strict standards of disclosure, as for a site with financial/investment commentary.

    From one Ian to Ian on your points,

    1. I have backed McVey (and Mourdant for that matter) but on straightforward odds, mainly at Ladbrokes, of 100/1 so I win or lose the bet. So I have put my money where my mouth is because I believe in the bet (as well as cover if I am wrong) but I do not benefit from the odds coming in and persuading people to follow my line.

    2. Re my "success" ratio, I disclosed in a previous post on the US midterms that I had done very well on Brexit and Trump in 2016 but badly with the 2017 GE ex-Scotland

    3. In answering Mike's question, I would hope not as that is an easy way to lose money - I do support Brexit but my main criticism of May is that I am in the camp that believes that, to negotiate well, you have to threaten to walk away. Suddenly, the EU has been a lot more conciliatory towards Italy since the latter started mouthing off.

    DavidL, thank you for your defence and you are right, IanB2 should be careful in what he writes. His comments may be interpreted as suggesting a fraudulent intent in some circumstances.

    OK, fair enough, and thanks for the speedy response. I am happy to retract any implication of impropriety.

    The site would nevertheless benefit from a disclosure policy from all lead writers. If only to avoid such discussions as this.
    Thank you for that. And that is a fair point re disclosure, it just did not cross my mind to out it in.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,409
    On topic, I think McVey needed to have resigned last week.

    She remains one of the swivel-eyed options I would like to see replacing May.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,409
    Some people are on the pitch....

    ...they're off to the salt mines.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    And that’s the last anyone will see of those people.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I hope those pitch invaders get thrashed to within an inch of their lives
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pulpstar said:

    The laws of the he should probably be changed and the word deliberate removed - everything looks deliberate under super slomo

    Which is a more serious issue in the criminal courts.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928

    Some people are on the pitch....

    ...they're off to the salt mines.

    Spice Mines of Kessel?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Pulpstar said:

    I hope those pitch invaders get thrashed to within an inch of their lives

    A good dose of Novichok should do the trick
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Some people are on the pitch....

    ...they're off to the salt mines.

    Spice Mines of Kessel?
    They disrupted a promising Croatian attack.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    France score again!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Pogba wins it for France
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,409

    Pogba wins it for France

    I did suggest 4-3 aet on the last thread...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    France with two stars on the shirt, England with one - that is going to be hard to stomach.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Esther McVey.......

    It's the way you tell 'em
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    And it is 4
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928

    Pogba wins it for France

    I did suggest 4-3 aet on the last thread...
    I don't think extra time will be needed now!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    I am still trying to work out how a team with Lindgard, Pogba and Lukaku were so f****** boring last season.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    'Twas always France's to win, as soon as Germany and Brazil went out
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    DavidL said:

    I am still trying to work out how a team with Lindgard, Pogba and Lukaku were so f****** boring last season.

    Jose
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Interesting article.

    The narrative that former UKIP supporters who voted Tory in 2017 (Often for the first time) are the "bedrock" of Tory support seems anathema to me. I know lots of life long Tories who do not support Brexit but voted Tory in 2017 anyway and I was one of those people. I simply do not buy into the myth that massive numbers of people will or will not vote Tory in the future on Brexit alone. If they have not supported the party before and for one election backed it I do not think they are reliable travellers in the Tory party wagon. General election campaigns wake up powerful thoughts in people and energise them to vote, Brexit is the last election, I suspect the next election will be focused on the economy assuming Brexit happens and the unpleasant fallout from Brexit. To be honest the PM is hopelessly out of her depth but looking around at people like Johnson makes me despair. The man is not cut out to be PM, he would be a F***ing disaster!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Macron's going to be impossible......on the bright side, Le Pen will keep her trap shut...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,409
    Ffs!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    Point and laugh at France!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    Oops - 4-2!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    DavidL said:

    I am still trying to work out how a team with Lindgard, Pogba and Lukaku were so f****** boring last season.

    They just looking boring compared to the sexy football Guardiola and Klopp were delivering?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Howler from Lloris
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    The future of TM is not my concern and am content for a VNOC. Indeed it may be time for Boris to take over and own the mess that is coming

    Boris as PM...

    :D:D:D:D:D:D

    Can you imagine Boris as PM? Seriously? Mr "F*** Business" and other insightful political comments...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098

    Pogba wins it for France

    I did suggest 4-3 aet on the last thread...
    In with a chance now...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    That was so funny
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Highest scoring WC final ever.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    I am still trying to work out how a team with Lindgard, Pogba and Lukaku were so f****** boring last season.

    Jose
    Yes it’s really that simple isn’t it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    IanB2 said:

    Pogba wins it for France

    I did suggest 4-3 aet on the last thread...
    In with a chance now...
    How ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I am still trying to work out how a team with Lindgard, Pogba and Lukaku were so f****** boring last season.

    Jose
    Yes it’s really that simple isn’t it?
    Yes
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    A better game for a final than we might have got.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    IanB2 said:

    Highest scoring WC final ever.

    Nah, Brazil 5 Sweden 2 has that honour.

    Heck this only ties with England 4 West Germany 2
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    The future of TM is not my concern and am content for a VNOC. Indeed it may be time for Boris to take over and own the mess that is coming

    Boris as PM...

    :D:D:D:D:D:D

    Can you imagine Boris as PM? Seriously? Mr "F*** Business" and other insightful political comments...
    No absolutely not but if it happens he owns the mess
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098

    IanB2 said:

    Highest scoring WC final ever.

    Nah, Brazil 5 Sweden 2 has that honour.

    Heck this only ties with England 4 West Germany 2
    Waiting for a retraction from the BBC commentary team....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    rcs1000 said:

    Now, this story about Donald Trump advising Mrs May to "sue" the EU is insane. Which court does he think would have jurisdiction? What - exactly - are the damages the UK would be claiming?

    If I were Mrs May, and I'm glad I'm not, the temptation to reply with "Without a doubt, that is the stupidest thing I've ever heard" would have been overwhelming.

    You are mistaking irrational for insane.
    Trump is quite happy to spout obvious untruths and nonsensical plans whose appeal is atavistic rather than rational. After all, it was originally his support for the ridiculous birther theories which set him on the path to the nomination.

    Similar considerations apply to Brexit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,981
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Highest scoring WC final ever.

    Nah, Brazil 5 Sweden 2 has that honour.

    Heck this only ties with England 4 West Germany 2
    Waiting for a retraction from the BBC commentary team....
    They mentioned the Brazil Sweden final, I think you misheard.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Esther MvCey always increases the acidation in my stomach to the point of nausea that involves vomitting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    IanB2 said:

    Pogba wins it for France

    I did suggest 4-3 aet on the last thread...
    In with a chance now...
    Extra time would require a scoreline of 3-3 after 90?
This discussion has been closed.