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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay caves in to the Brexit Taliban over Chequers plan

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    On the other hand, the deal seemed essentially dead anyway, even assuming the EU were on board (which multiple people said they would not be due to cherry picking on the red lines), so it doesn't actually matter except in the sense it delays the Tory party confrontation that needs to happen again. So irritating, but fundamentally the deal lacked the support necessary to happen before, so it is just as dead as it was previously.

    It just seems silly to keep delaying things on a proposed deal when the people forcing the changes clearly want no deal though - nothing is actually going to satisfy them on that score.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
    But who and how
    The unity candidate of course. The man of destiny. The power that is.

    Boris
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited July 2018

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    It could of course go as according to the forecasts, slight loss of economic growth with the economy adjusts and then decent growth and job creation. Means re-joining the EU will be off the cards for the future.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
    But who and how
    The unity candidate of course. The man of destiny. The power that is.

    Boris
    Boris can’t unite anybody.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
    But who and how
    The unity candidate of course. The man of destiny. The power that is.

    Boris
    The reported increase in membership makes that more likely unfortunately
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    I'm a VAT lawyer and I no longer know what the gov't position is
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    chloe said:

    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
    But who and how
    The unity candidate of course. The man of destiny. The power that is.

    Boris
    Boris can’t unite anybody.
    Au contraire. He's united everyone.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Amendment passes, maj 3
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
    But that won't help either. Neither faction has the backing of the other, so at best would be slightly less indecisive, because they would still be fundamentally weak.

    I guess it's time to see what the EU think, but if they would have had trouble before with it they will even more so now. May can then either go with no deal, or step aside for someone who will, since it will be all that is left for us unfortunately.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    :o Full house for the ERG.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    UK will leave the EU VAT area.

    Question will be whether administratively we leave it
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    His Moggesty JRM is (de-facto) PM.

  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    chloe said:

    chloe said:

    This goes to show why the Article 50 process (deliberately, perhaps?) is flawed.

    Really there should be two years for negotiation followed by a year of legislative implementation. A government could get its negotiations hammered out before putting the legislation on the table to implement the deal. As it is we have a moving feast of Commons votes dictating in some ways the governments negotiating position.

    I suspect it’s not designed that way to make it even harder to leave. Of course we could have spent the pre-Article 50 phase trying to persuade the European Parliament to extend the period, but then I suspect there wouldn’t have been consensus. Would be interesting in future to see if the government took soundings though (I’m guessing no).

    We could have invoked Article 50 when we knew what we wanted from the negotiations.
    Well yes, but even then we couldn’t guarantee we’d get what we wanted.

    Whichever way you look at it, it’s clear that it wasn’t drafted with practicality in mind. Which given the state of mind of the European Project isn’t exactly a surprise.
    Of course, but the EU don’t expect countries to go rogue rather than work to reform from within, with alliances and compromises.
    And that’s a fundamental flaw in the EUs thinking. There was always a chance someone would leave at some point. You can’t guarantee the future. Which is presumably why they put article 50 in the treaty in the first place. But didn’t really think through the consequences of someone actually using it.

    The worst of both worlds.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584

    Pulpstar said:

    Wonder how close this one will be. Another ERG Amendment I think but not sure what 73 says.

    It's on VAT, to keep up out of the VAT area.

    I am not sure if the gov't is accepting it. I don't think it is consistent with the white paper, but I have lost track...
    I think Grieve (who is probably reading this stuff with a little more care than us) made a similar point in the House anout the inconsistency of the amendments.

    Everyone losing track of what the eff is going on is likely not unintentional at this point.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    edited July 2018
    Jonathan said:

    chloe said:

    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
    But who and how
    The unity candidate of course. The man of destiny. The power that is.

    Boris
    Boris can’t unite anybody.
    Au contraire. He's united everyone.
    United everybody to elect a Corbyn government.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    I'm a VAT lawyer and I no longer know what the gov't position is

    Means I'll need to do my VAT reclaim for our German Trade show well before 29th March xD
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    These votes tonight are all theatre.
    Yes, it incenses Remainers that May is so willing to cave to the ERG, but if they don’t like it they can vote against - or even resign, as Bebb has.

    I don’t think they change Chequers in any meaningful sense.

    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    It’s true though the the odds of both no Brexit and no deal have risen in the last week, largely as a result of the Davis and Johnson resignations.

    Meanwhile, businesses will continue making plans to transfer investment and people away from Britain.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    This does strike me a little of the old truth that one's strength can often end up being ones weakness as well. Lack of ideological fervour, willingness to compromise and avoid confrontation, they can all be very handy in a job which requires careful management and a practical approach, but stick to that when things need doing now, and pissing off a lot of people is inevitable, and the attempt to keep it all together just becomes sad to watch really.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,584
    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
    All possible contenders then take one pace back....

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    I guess the government can celebrate winning a vote and surviving another day. It's a shame they don't seem to have a strategy that goes beyond a day or so, since they just leap from crisis to crisis.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    edited July 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm a VAT lawyer and I no longer know what the gov't position is

    Means I'll need to do my VAT reclaim for our German Trade show well before 29th March xD
    If that's a Directive claim, I think so...

    Everything else will be covered by the transition
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408



    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    Quite reasonably I would think they will say what is the point in agreeing to any of your proposals, they'll probably change in a week?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    kle4 said:

    It's a shame they don't seem to have a strategy

    Does anyone else?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Is there any reason the EU wouldn't want to collect tariff's for the UK if we collect them for the EU?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    kle4 said:



    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    Quite reasonably I would think they will say what is the point in agreeing to any of your proposals, they'll probably change in a week?
    No deal then
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    Agreed.

    A chaotic Brexit followed by Corbyn would be a grade "A*" fucking disaster .......

    What, in God's name, must the EU be thinking of us.

    Are any negotiations even planned?

    I used to think JRM was an eccentric polite MP with some very old-fashioned views. Now I am beginning to loathe him. He and his band are being really quite unpatriotic and undemocratic in seeking to assume that only their view of what Brexit means is permissible and seeking to impose it in a way which makes it more likely that we end up with no deal, with all the potential harm that could lead to, or Remain, which is contrary to the referendum result (even though at present that seems to me to be preferable since I very much doubt anyone voting for Leave voted for chaos).
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    The three/four Labour rebels voting in favour of the ERG saw it through!!

    Corbyn yet again letting the side down
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Not many patriots left in the parliamentary Conservative party.

    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Richard Benyon
    Ken Clarke
    Jonathan Djanogly
    Dominic Grieve
    Stephen Hammond
    Philip Lee
    Nicky Morgan
    Bob Neill
    Mark Pawsey
    Antoinette Sandbach
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    The three/four Labour rebels voting in favour of the ERG saw it through!!

    Corbyn yet again letting the side down

    Thanks to the people of Vauxhall for re electing Kate Hoey!
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    14 tories who rebelled

    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Rochard Benyon
    Ken Clarke
    Jonathan Djanogly
    Domonic Grieve
    Stephen Hammond
    Phillip Lee
    Nicky Morgan
    Robert Neill
    Mark Pawsey
    Antoinette Sandbach
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    So the government, allying with some Tory rebels, to amend their own bill, avoid defeat by Tory rebels and Labour because of the support of Labour rebels.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    It's a shame they don't seem to have a strategy

    Does anyone else?
    JRM and co do - prevent any other option from being viable and win by default.

    Corbyn has one - say and do nothing firm on Brexit, however irresponsible that is (the much praised 'masterly inactivity' strategy), so that Labour will not be in the public eye on it, and when government collapses, Labour will win by default

    May seemed to have one, even if it looked unlikely to succeed. But apparently it is just enough to survive from vote to vote, even if it makes an already difficult sell incomprehensible apparently.

    I believed at least she had sincerely chosen a path, but given no one seems to believe the amendments are compatible with what she stated previously, I don't think her deal proposal was sincere after all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Cyclefree said:

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    Agreed.

    A chaotic Brexit followed by Corbyn would be a grade "A*" fucking disaster .......

    What, in God's name, must the EU be thinking of us.

    Are any negotiations even planned?

    I used to think JRM was an eccentric polite MP with some very old-fashioned views. Now I am beginning to loathe him. He and his band are being really quite unpatriotic and undemocratic in seeking to assume that only their view of what Brexit means is permissible and seeking to impose it in a way which makes it more likely that we end up with no deal, with all the potential harm that could lead to, or Remain, which is contrary to the referendum result (even though at present that seems to me to be preferable since I very much doubt anyone voting for Leave voted for chaos).
    It’s hard to see a way back for May, this government and probably us too.




  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    14 tories who rebelled

    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Rochard Benyon
    Ken Clarke
    Jonathan Djanogly
    Domonic Grieve
    Stephen Hammond
    Phillip Lee
    Nicky Morgan
    Robert Neill
    Mark Pawsey
    Antoinette Sandbach
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    And the ERG rebels would be 100 plus
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Does this VAT amendment mean the end of boxes 8 and 9 ?
    & intrastat ?
    & EC Sales ?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    kle4 said:

    This does strike me a little of the old truth that one's strength can often end up being ones weakness as well. Lack of ideological fervour, willingness to compromise and avoid confrontation, they can all be very handy in a job which requires careful management and a practical approach, but stick to that when things need doing now, and pissing off a lot of people is inevitable, and the attempt to keep it all together just becomes sad to watch really.

    I agree T May is demeaning her office and the country.

    It is pitiful to watch.
  • Just seen the list of Tory rebels on the ERG amendment. Looks like Justine Greening voted with the government, on the very day she called for a 2nd referendum?! God the Tory remainers are absolutely cr*p at getting the numbers together aren't they.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    I’m surprised the EU doesn’t just walk away from the negotiations. The government has been allowed no leeway to negotiate so what is the point because of the hardline Brexiteers. They might as well just prepare for the UK crashing out,
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    The three/four Labour rebels voting in favour of the ERG saw it through!!

    Corbyn yet again letting the side down

    I really don't think Corbyn can be blamed for the fact 1-2% of his party rebel sometimes. Given how much so many of his MPs don't like him, that it is not higher more often is a surprise, but some rebels are surely inevitable.

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?


    It is very risky, to be sure, and rather flippant about those risks. It's all very well if they console themselves that it still us leavers' fault in the end, but no deal was not inevitable, and unless they genuinely think the May deal would be bad or not democratic somehow, saying no to it for other reasons seems tactically unwise if nothing else.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    Does this VAT amendment mean the end of boxes 8 and 9 ?
    & intrastat ?
    & EC Sales ?

    Yes, far more supplies would be out of scope.

    The main change would be more bothering with import VAT and you will need a VAT registration int he EU rather than relying on the Directive (for small businesses)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited July 2018
    It is astonishing that the Labour Party presumes that it is more qualified than all of the above and, in particular, the Jewish community, to define antisemitism.

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1018975013549039616
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    kle4 said:

    The three/four Labour rebels voting in favour of the ERG saw it through!!

    Corbyn yet again letting the side down

    I really don't think Corbyn can be blamed for the fact 1-2% of his party rebel sometimes. Given how much so many of his MPs don't like him, that it is not higher more often is a surprise, but some rebels are surely inevitable.

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?


    It is very risky, to be sure, and rather flippant about those risks. It's all very well if they console themselves that it still us leavers' fault in the end, but no deal was not inevitable, and unless they genuinely think the May deal would be bad or not democratic somehow, saying no to it for other reasons seems tactically unwise if nothing else.
    I wasn't being hugely serious, three or four rebels always expected
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Flashback. Remember when May refused to admit such a thing as transition, calling it an “Implementation period”?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    14 tories who rebelled

    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Rochard Benyon
    Ken Clarke
    Jonathan Djanogly
    Domonic Grieve
    Stephen Hammond
    Phillip Lee
    Nicky Morgan
    Robert Neill
    Mark Pawsey
    Antoinette Sandbach
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    And the ERG rebels would be 100 plus
    Correct. The Brexit lot have voted for the Govt time and time again and swalloed some unpalatable stuff. The Cons voting against the govt time and time again are this lot.
    T May should have understood this, she had a loyal block vote and she annoyed them by rewarding the non-loyal block of 14. She has no clue at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    chloe said:

    Jonathan said:

    Yorkcity said:

    kle4 said:

    Oh May, what is the point of finally taking a stand, recognising you cannot get all sides to agree, only to alter position anyway?

    Never a truer word spoken.

    I thought she had at least tried to lead a week ago at Chequers.

    Now she has pissed of nearly everyone .

    Time for a new leader to step forward , in the countries interest.
    But who and how
    The unity candidate of course. The man of destiny. The power that is.

    Boris
    Boris can’t unite anybody.
    Nor did Trump, he still won
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    Agreed.

    A chaotic Brexit followed by Corbyn would be a grade "A*" fucking disaster .......

    What, in God's name, must the EU be thinking of us.

    Are any negotiations even planned?

    I used to think JRM was an eccentric polite MP with some very old-fashioned views. Now I am beginning to loathe him. He and his band are being really quite unpatriotic and undemocratic in seeking to assume that only their view of what Brexit means is permissible and seeking to impose it in a way which makes it more likely that we end up with no deal, with all the potential harm that could lead to, or Remain, which is contrary to the referendum result (even though at present that seems to me to be preferable since I very much doubt anyone voting for Leave voted for chaos).
    It’s hard to see a way back for May, this government and probably us too.




    Agreed. I put No deal at 70% chance earlier (purely on my gut). I'd put it at about 80% now.

    There's too much that needs to go right for a deal to occur now, and the optimism of those assuming a governmental and EU fudge can undo the political positioning that has occurred strikes me as not based in reality.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Not many patriots left in the parliamentary Conservative party.

    How the hell is it patriotic to collect tariffs on behalf of a third party if they're not reciprocating?

    This amendment should be totally uncontroversial. If the EU wants a deal where we collect tariffs on their behalf and vice versa then great. If no deal can be reached than so be it. Either way this amendment doesn't rule out a deal it rules out unreciprocated servitude.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited July 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Does this VAT amendment mean the end of boxes 8 and 9 ?
    & intrastat ?
    & EC Sales ?</blockquote If no one knows we really are without a paddle in uncharted sewerage.

  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    passes to 3rd reading
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Very sad things have come to such a pass. Though I imagine May would be delighted if that could divert at least some political attention away from the travesty of a negotiation she is supposed to be attempting now (it feels like it is going through the motions at this point - her previous deal was unlikely but she might have believed it, but now it's about going to the EU with an expectation of it being shut down).
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    14 tories who rebelled

    Heidi Allen
    Guto Bebb
    Rochard Benyon
    Ken Clarke
    Jonathan Djanogly
    Domonic Grieve
    Stephen Hammond
    Phillip Lee
    Nicky Morgan
    Robert Neill
    Mark Pawsey
    Antoinette Sandbach
    Anna Soubry
    Sarah Wollaston

    And the ERG rebels would be 100 plus
    That is the tip of the iceberg of potential Remain rebels. While May is leading they will keep their powder dry.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited July 2018

    Not many patriots left in the parliamentary Conservative party.

    How the hell is it patriotic to collect tariffs on behalf of a third party if they're not reciprocating?

    This amendment should be totally uncontroversial. If the EU wants a deal where we collect tariffs on their behalf and vice versa then great. If no deal can be reached than so be it. Either way this amendment doesn't rule out a deal it rules out unreciprocated servitude.
    Yes - it is entirely sensible and reasonable. The fact that the EU won't like it does not negate that fact.

    If you won't do something for me why should I do it for you?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Sometimes it feels like May is successfully playing a very difficult video game where the only aim is personal survival.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does this VAT amendment mean the end of boxes 8 and 9 ?
    & intrastat ?
    & EC Sales ?

    I'm sure the Gov't will update their website to advise us all ;)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    These votes tonight are all theatre.
    Yes, it incenses Remainers that May is so willing to cave to the ERG, but if they don’t like it they can vote against - or even resign, as Bebb has.

    I don’t think they change Chequers in any meaningful sense.

    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    It’s true though the the odds of both no Brexit and no deal have risen in the last week, largely as a result of the Davis and Johnson resignations.

    Meanwhile, businesses will continue making plans to transfer investment and people away from Britain.

    Yep - this is the key point. The Tories are telling business loud and clear that No Deal is coming. The Tories will own the consequences of that. Jeremy Corbyn will be delighted. Chequers could have put him on the back foot. Now he is home free.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    chloe said:

    I’m surprised the EU doesn’t just walk away from the negotiations. The government has been allowed no leeway to negotiate so what is the point because of the hardline Brexiteers. They might as well just prepare for the UK crashing out,

    That would play into the Brexiteers hands completely - the EU would nose dive in the Country
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dadge said:

    Sometimes it feels like May is successfully playing a very difficult video game where the only aim is personal survival.

    I get the impression that if she goes it'll be because she decides herself that she doesn't want to carry on, not because she's been forced out by anyone else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    So the government, allying with some Tory rebels, to amend their own bill, avoid defeat by Tory rebels and Labour because of the support of Labour rebels.

    3 Labour MPs voted with the Government on the Customs Bill (Field, Hoey and Mann?), given the Government won by 3 votes they made the difference

    https://twitter.com/timsculthorpe/status/1018975974766071808
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Dadge said:

    Sometimes it feels like May is successfully playing a very difficult video game where the only aim is personal survival.

    It's one of those scripted scenes where the outcome is predetermined, but skillful maneuvering or luck can see a player last a long long time, but to no purpose.

    Just put down the controller and let the end come, May. She doesn't believe in no deal brexit, but cannot be so silly as to think she can get a deal now, so why put herself through all this?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    These votes tonight are all theatre.
    Yes, it incenses Remainers that May is so willing to cave to the ERG, but if they don’t like it they can vote against - or even resign, as Bebb has.

    I don’t think they change Chequers in any meaningful sense.

    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    It’s true though the the odds of both no Brexit and no deal have risen in the last week, largely as a result of the Davis and Johnson resignations.

    Meanwhile, businesses will continue making plans to transfer investment and people away from Britain.

    Yep - this is the key point. The Tories are telling business loud and clear that No Deal is coming. The Tories will own the consequences of that. Jeremy Corbyn will be delighted. Chequers could have put him on the back foot. Now he is home free.

    On current polls the only way the Tories win the next election is hard Brexit, if it is soft Brexit based on the Chequers Deal Corbyn will win because of Tory defections to UKIP
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    So the government, allying with some Tory rebels, to amend their own bill, avoid defeat by Tory rebels and Labour because of the support of Labour rebels.

    3 Labour MPs voted with the Government on the Customs Bill (Field, Hoey and Mann?), given the Government won by 3 votes they made the difference

    https://twitter.com/timsculthorpe/status/1018975974766071808
    Plus suspended Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins too.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    Agreed.

    A chaotic Brexit followed by Corbyn would be a grade "A*" fucking disaster .......

    What, in God's name, must the EU be thinking of us.

    Are any negotiations even planned?

    I used to think JRM was an eccentric polite MP with some very old-fashioned views. Now I am beginning to loathe him. He and his band are being really quite unpatriotic and undemocratic in seeking to assume that only their view of what Brexit means is permissible and seeking to impose it in a way which makes it more likely that we end up with no deal, with all the potential harm that could lead to, or Remain, which is contrary to the referendum result (even though at present that seems to me to be preferable since I very much doubt anyone voting for Leave voted for chaos).
    It’s hard to see a way back for May, this government and probably us too.




    Ask the EU for a pause on Article 50 while we and they plan for an orderly no deal exit on WTO terms, which is in both our interests.

    Or go back to Parliament and say that it is impossible to come up with a proposal which Parliament will back which can also be agreed with the EU and that therefore - in order to avoid a disorderly crash out - she is going to cancel Article 50, pass a one line Act to that effect and let the ECJ decide whether this is legally permissible.

    If Parliament won't support this resign and see if someone else can command a majority and sort out the clusterfuck.

    Then get on a plane (while they can still fly) and piss off somewhere very far away where the internet and telephone lines work intermittently if at all.

    Honestly, I am no supporter of Corbyn (I would consider it a day of shame if he were to become Britain's PM) but if the Tories can't get their act together then let Labour see what they can do to sort out Brexit with the EU. They might surprise us all.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It’s becoming clearer that something is going to have to give. Either Parliament is going to have to backtrack, Britain is going to crash out without a deal or Brexit isn’t going to happen.

    Right now I think I order them 1,2,3 but any of them can easily be envisaged. The next few months look chaotic.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    chloe said:


    We could have invoked Article 50 when we knew what we wanted from the negotiations.

    Well yes, but even then we couldn’t guarantee we’d get what we wanted.

    Whichever way you look at it, it’s clear that it wasn’t drafted with practicality in mind. Which given the state of mind of the European Project isn’t exactly a surprise.
    Here's something I simply do not understand. Cameron and May were both sensible enough to avoid triggering Article 50 immediately after the referendum, because they knew some preparation time would be needed. There were some voices who wanted it triggered immediately, presumably to prevent a "betrayal", but that would clearly have been disastrous. On the other hand, the basic shape of the EU's offer, or set of plausible offers, was pretty clear from the outset. RCS points out that commission "red-lines flowchart" but it didn't contain anything that couldn't have been logically discerned.

    So why did she not use that time to sort out the UK government position and get most of the ducks in a row? The fact that it's taken this long to decide what the cabinet want re customs, for example, indicates a lot of basic stuff was being left very late.

    But why? May could decide when to set the trigger. If it would take more time to arrange the position, she could have taken it. Did she trigger prematurely because she thought that the EU's position was actually quite opaque and the options would only become clear once the talking had started? Did she know how hard it would be to reach cabinet agreement so didn't want to waste time and political capital discussing hypotheticals ("what if the EU don't agree to give us X" etc), and thought that her own control over the negotiations would let her impose her will when required once the process had started? Did she think that they had lined the ducks up, and were surprised that the negotiations stalled over something they hadn't predicted? (Seems unlikely given the stumbling blocks so far have been in pretty predictable areas, but then few people would rate her administration highly for competence right now.)

    Neither the Tories nor Labour really had a coherent vision of the kind of Brexit they wanted in their 2017 manifestos so this wasn't just a May phenomenon - had Corbyn won that election, he may have had even more fun and games getting his party to take his line than May has managed - but she's the one who'll be remembered for it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    kle4 said:

    Dadge said:

    Sometimes it feels like May is successfully playing a very difficult video game where the only aim is personal survival.

    It's one of those scripted scenes where the outcome is predetermined, but skillful maneuvering or luck can see a player last a long long time, but to no purpose.

    Just put down the controller and let the end come, May. She doesn't believe in no deal brexit, but cannot be so silly as to think she can get a deal now, so why put herself through all this?
    She can still get a transition deal I think
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340

    HYUFD said:

    So the government, allying with some Tory rebels, to amend their own bill, avoid defeat by Tory rebels and Labour because of the support of Labour rebels.

    3 Labour MPs voted with the Government on the Customs Bill (Field, Hoey and Mann?), given the Government won by 3 votes they made the difference

    https://twitter.com/timsculthorpe/status/1018975974766071808
    Plus suspended Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins too.
    Does that total include Jared O’Mara?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    These votes tonight are all theatre.
    Yes, it incenses Remainers that May is so willing to cave to the ERG, but if they don’t like it they can vote against - or even resign, as Bebb has.

    I don’t think they change Chequers in any meaningful sense.

    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    It’s true though the the odds of both no Brexit and no deal have risen in the last week, largely as a result of the Davis and Johnson resignations.

    Meanwhile, businesses will continue making plans to transfer investment and people away from Britain.

    Yep - this is the key point. The Tories are telling business loud and clear that No Deal is coming. The Tories will own the consequences of that. Jeremy Corbyn will be delighted. Chequers could have put him on the back foot. Now he is home free.

    All a bit silly really - go to all the effort of looking like you want something softer, and are willing to be firm about it, then cave in and practically say that no deal is what we are getting. Seriously, what is the point of all these changes in position? If you're giving in, give in all the way, else the fight will just come up again.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    chloe said:

    I’m surprised the EU doesn’t just walk away from the negotiations. The government has been allowed no leeway to negotiate so what is the point because of the hardline Brexiteers. They might as well just prepare for the UK crashing out,

    That would play into the Brexiteers hands completely - the EU would nose dive in the Country
    If it wants out, it doesn’t need to walk, it can simply wait. Probably busy planning mitigations for the hard Brexit scenario.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    It’s becoming clearer that something is going to have to give. Either Parliament is going to have to backtrack, Britain is going to crash out without a deal or Brexit isn’t going to happen.

    Right now I think I order them 1,2,3 but any of them can easily be envisaged. The next few months look chaotic.

    I'd like to know who changed their vote between amendments 36 and 73. Was surprised when the Gov't won with 303 votes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    All very well but they did not have the numbers tonight to beat the Government because of Labour Leave rebels and that is unlikely to change tomorrow
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    chloe said:


    We could have invoked Article 50 when we knew what we wanted from the negotiations.

    Well yes, but even then we couldn’t guaran
    Here's something I simply do not understand. Cameron and May were both sensible enough to avoid triggering Article 50 immediately after the referendum, because they knew some preparation time would be needed. There were some voices who wanted it triggered immediately, presumably to prevent a "betrayal", but that would clearly have been disastrous. On the other hand, the basic shape of the EU's offer, or set of plausible offers, was pretty clear from the outset. RCS points out that commission "red-lines flowchart" but it didn't contain anything that couldn't have been logically discerned.

    So why did she not use that time to sort out the UK government position and get most of the ducks in a row? The fact that it's taken this long to decide what the cabinet want re customs, for example, indicates a lot of basic stuff was being left very late.

    But why? May could decide when to set the trigger. If it would take more time to arrange the position, she could have taken it. Did she trigger prematurely because she thought that the EU's position was actually quite opaque and the options would only become clear once the talking had started? Did she know how hard it would be to reach cabinet agreement so didn't want to waste time and political capital discussing hypotheticals ("what if the EU don't agree to give us X" etc), and thought that her own control over the negotiations would let her impose her will when required once the process had started? Did she think that they had lined the ducks up, and were surprised that the negotiations stalled over something they hadn't predicted? (Seems unlikely given the stumbling blocks so far have been in pretty predictable areas, but then few people would rate her administration highly for competence right now.)

    Neither the Tories nor Labour really had a coherent vision of the kind of Brexit they wanted in their 2017 manifestos so this wasn't just a May phenomenon - had Corbyn won that election, he may have had even more fun and games getting his party to take his line than May has managed - but she's the one who'll be remembered for it.
    A question I have been trying to think of an answer to for a long time, and particularly this year. As hard as I thought Brexit might be, which was pretty hard, I simply never conceived of a situation where 2 years into a new ministry the Tory party would not have coalesced around a coherent position (or even, god forbid, the parties could try to seek some common ground). It's a level of incompetence that can have no justification.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    It’s becoming clearer that something is going to have to give. Either Parliament is going to have to backtrack, Britain is going to crash out without a deal or Brexit isn’t going to happen.

    Right now I think I order them 1,2,3 but any of them can easily be envisaged. The next few months look chaotic.

    2,1,3 for me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    So the government, allying with some Tory rebels, to amend their own bill, avoid defeat by Tory rebels and Labour because of the support of Labour rebels.

    3 Labour MPs voted with the Government on the Customs Bill (Field, Hoey and Mann?), given the Government won by 3 votes they made the difference

    https://twitter.com/timsculthorpe/status/1018975974766071808
    Plus suspended Labour MP Kelvin Hopkins too.
    They are pivotal for the Leave cause
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I see there is an increasing mood among some a Remainers for a no deal Brexit, because there is no other way for the country to understand the real impact of their vote.

    I think this is dangerous.

    Chaos, once unleashed, never seems to revert to calm. Remember the idea that Corbyn would be a flash in the pan?

    Agreed.

    A chaotic Brexit followed by Corbyn would be a grade "A*" fucking disaster .......

    What, in God's name, must the EU be thinking of us.

    Are any negotiations even planned?

    I used to think JRM was an eccentric polite MP with some very old-fashioned views. Now I am beginning to loathe him. He and his band are being really quite unpatriotic and undemocratic in seeking to assume that only their view of what Brexit means is permissible and seeking to impose it in a way which makes it more likely that we end up with no deal, with all the potential harm that could lead to, or Remain, which is contrary to the referendum result (even though at present that seems to me to be preferable since I very much doubt anyone voting for Leave voted for chaos).
    It’s hard to see a way back for May, this government and probably us too.




    Ask the EU for a pause on Article 50 while we and they plan for an orderly no deal exit on WTO terms, which is in both our interests.

    Or go back to Parliament and say that it is impossible to come up with a proposal which Parliament will back which can also be agreed with the EU and that therefore - in order to avoid a disorderly crash out - she is going to cancel Article 50, pass a one line Act to that effect and let the ECJ decide whether this is legally permissible.

    If Parliament won't support this resign and see if someone else can command a majority and sort out the clusterfuck.

    Then get on a plane (while they can still fly) and piss off somewhere very far away where the internet and telephone lines work intermittently if at all.

    Honestly, I am no supporter of Corbyn (I would consider it a day of shame if he were to become Britain's PM) but if the Tories can't get their act together then let Labour see what they can do to sort out Brexit with the EU. They might surprise us all.
    Yup it’s looking like time to call for someone else. I reckon you might be right. Corbyn is more pragmatic than this lot.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited July 2018
    Isn't there already a VAT & Duty border in NI?

    https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1018978139832242176
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Don’t see how the Remainers get that amendment through. Tonight has proved that the Govt win votes providing they have the loyalty of the ERG.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:

    These votes tonight are all theatre.
    Yes, it incenses Remainers that May is so willing to cave to the ERG, but if they don’t like it they can vote against - or even resign, as Bebb has.

    I don’t think they change Chequers in any meaningful sense.

    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    It’s true though the the odds of both no Brexit and no deal have risen in the last week, largely as a result of the Davis and Johnson resignations.

    Meanwhile, businesses will continue making plans to transfer investment and people away from Britain.

    Yep - this is the key point. The Tories are telling business loud and clear that No Deal is coming. The Tories will own the consequences of that. Jeremy Corbyn will be delighted. Chequers could have put him on the back foot. Now he is home free.

    On current polls the only way the Tories win the next election is hard Brexit, if it is soft Brexit based on the Chequers Deal Corbyn will win because of Tory defections to UKIP
    Soft or hard what will matter are the practical consequences. The tories are fooling themselves if they think they will win if hard brexit, or no deal brexit, has big consequences.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Sasha Baron-Cohen interviewing Bernie Sanders, Palin and other politicans on 'Who is America' on C4 plus 1 now
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    HYUFD said:

    All very well but they did not have the numbers tonight to beat the Government because of Labour Leave rebels and that is unlikely to change tomorrow
    We've been told for days that it was the ERG that was all piss & wind.....doesn't look like it was them....the government can count....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    HYUFD said:

    These votes tonight are all theatre.
    Yes, it incenses Remainers that May is so willing to cave to the ERG, but if they don’t like it they can vote against - or even resign, as Bebb has.

    I don’t think they change Chequers in any meaningful sense.

    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    It’s true though the the odds of both no Brexit and no deal have risen in the last week, largely as a result of the Davis and Johnson resignations.

    Meanwhile, businesses will continue making plans to transfer investment and people away from Britain.

    Yep - this is the key point. The Tories are telling business loud and clear that No Deal is coming. The Tories will own the consequences of that. Jeremy Corbyn will be delighted. Chequers could have put him on the back foot. Now he is home free.

    On current polls the only way the Tories win the next election is hard Brexit, if it is soft Brexit based on the Chequers Deal Corbyn will win because of Tory defections to UKIP

    If that is the case May needs to call an election very, very soon, before the reality of what a hard Brexit, let alone a No Deal Brexit, begins to bite. We leave on 29th March 2019 and, as things stand, there will be no transition deal. That’s what the Tories have voted for tonight.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Isn't there already a VAT & Duty border in NI?

    https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1018978139832242176

    Different rates, but some VAT rules are decreed EU wide. Eg new categories of VAT rates cannot be below 5%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited July 2018
    Ms Morgan and Mr Hammond’s amendment sparked serious alarm in Downing Street on Monday night, as it would wreak havoc on Mrs May’s entire negotiating strategy if passed.

    Ahahahahahahaa

    What f*cking negotiating strategy? The government will clearly toss anything to avoid losing a vote, so has no credibility left to negotiate with, when after Chequers it at least had the credibility of appearing to take a stand.

    Flexibility is a useful attribute, but this is more akin to having to pick between 2 different directions in which to charge, and changing your mind every few seconds, ending up going nowhere.

    That's not a negotiating strategy - what does May say to the EU and other heads of government? "I don't know what I'm asking for, it depends on what I have to say tomorrow to prevent another rebellion'
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    HYUFD said:

    These votes tonight are all theatre.
    Yes, it incenses Remainers that May is so willing to cave to the ERG, but if they don’t like it they can vote against - or even resign, as Bebb has.

    I don’t think they change Chequers in any meaningful sense.

    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    It’s true though the the odds of both no Brexit and no deal have risen in the last week, largely as a result of the Davis and Johnson resignations.

    Meanwhile, businesses will continue making plans to transfer investment and people away from Britain.

    Yep - this is the key point. The Tories are telling business loud and clear that No Deal is coming. The Tories will own the consequences of that. Jeremy Corbyn will be delighted. Chequers could have put him on the back foot. Now he is home free.

    On current polls the only way the Tories win the next election is hard Brexit, if it is soft Brexit based on the Chequers Deal Corbyn will win because of Tory defections to UKIP
    Hard Brexit destroys the Tories' main USP - that they are pragmatic, not ideological and can be trusted with economic matters because they care about the country. It shows them up as madly ideological, deeply unconcerned with the practical consequences of an outcome for which little planning has been made and which could cause real economic and social harm to the country and arrogantly indifferent to voters' concerns, talking only to themselves - and not even to the best of themselves but the sorts of people most normal people would avoid sitting next to on a long train journey.

    And you think this is a winning combination?

    The Tories are making Corbyn look like a sensible alternative. That's the mess your party is in. Having got your party into this mess because you ran scared of UKIP you're running scared of them again. Grow a pair, for God's sake, and do what is right by the country. There was a time when Tories did not need to be told this.

    My vote no longer matters in my constituency but the Tory candidate need not bother knocking on my door for a very very long time.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    ERG-CON-DUP grand coalition
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Pulpstar said:
    The reciprocity vote wasn’t that controversial. There is no way that such a partnership would work if it wasn’t; because it wouldn’t be a partnership.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Tory women vs Tory gay men minor battle now on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    HYUFD said:

    These votes tonight are all theatre.
    Yes, it incenses Remainers that May is so willing to cave to the ERG, but if they don’t like it they can vote against - or even resign, as Bebb has.

    I don’t think they change Chequers in any meaningful sense.

    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    It’s true though the the odds of both no Brexit and no deal have risen in the last week, largely as a result of the Davis and Johnson resignations.

    Meanwhile, businesses will continue making plans to transfer investment and people away from Britain.

    Yep - this is the key point. The Tories are telling business loud and clear that No Deal is coming. The Tories will own the consequences of that. Jeremy Corbyn will be delighted. Chequers could have put him on the back foot. Now he is home free.

    On current polls the only way the Tories win the next election is hard Brexit, if it is soft Brexit based on the Chequers Deal Corbyn will win because of Tory defections to UKIP

    If that is the case May needs to call an election very, very soon, before the reality of what a hard Brexit, let alone a No Deal Brexit, begins to bite. We leave on 29th March 2019 and, as things stand, there will be no transition deal. That’s what the Tories have voted for tonight.
    But she cannot call for one (and before anyone says the PM cannot just call for one, I think we can use it for shorthand of going through the various FTPA scenarios) while the party is so bitterly divided. She won't be able to get all current MPs on board with backing that position.

    Otherwise the Tsipras strategy would be sound.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    HYUFD said:

    These votes tonight are all theatre.
    Yes, it incenses Remainers that May is so willing to cave to the ERG, but if they don’t like it they can vote against - or even resign, as Bebb has.

    I don’t think they change Chequers in any meaningful sense.

    The ball is now in the EU’s court and we must wait for October.

    It’s true though the the odds of both no Brexit and no deal have risen in the last week, largely as a result of the Davis and Johnson resignations.

    Meanwhile, businesses will continue making plans to transfer investment and people away from Britain.

    Yep - this is the key point. The Tories are telling business loud and clear that No Deal is coming. The Tories will own the consequences of that. Jeremy Corbyn will be delighted. Chequers could have put him on the back foot. Now he is home free.

    On current polls the only way the Tories win the next election is hard Brexit, if it is soft Brexit based on the Chequers Deal Corbyn will win because of Tory defections to UKIP

    If that is the case May needs to call an election very, very soon, before the reality of what a hard Brexit, let alone a No Deal Brexit, begins to bite. We leave on 29th March 2019 and, as things stand, there will be no transition deal. That’s what the Tories have voted for tonight.
    Which vote goes against a transition deal?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    kle4 said:


    Here's something I simply do not understand. Cameron and May were both sensible enough to avoid triggering Article 50 immediately after the referendum, because they knew some preparation time would be needed. There were some voices who wanted it triggered immediately, presumably to prevent a "betrayal", but that would clearly have been disastrous. On the other hand, the basic shape of the EU's offer, or set of plausible offers, was pretty clear from the outset. RCS points out that commission "red-lines flowchart" but it didn't contain anything that couldn't have been logically discerned.

    So why did she not use that time to sort out the UK government position and get most of the ducks in a row? The fact that it's taken this long to decide what the cabinet want re customs, for example, indicates a lot of basic stuff was being left very late.

    But why? May could decide when to set the trigger. If it would take more time to arrange the position, she could have taken it. Did she trigger prematurely because she thought that the EU's position was actually quite opaque and the options would only become clear once the talking had started? Did she know how hard it would be to reach cabinet agreement so didn't want to waste time and political capital discussing hypotheticals ("what if the EU don't agree to give us X" etc), and thought that her own control over the negotiations would let her impose her will when required once the process had started? Did she think that they had lined the ducks up, and were surprised that the negotiations stalled over something they hadn't predicted? (Seems unlikely given the stumbling blocks so far have been in pretty predictable areas, but then few people would rate her administration highly for competence right now.)

    Neither the Tories nor Labour really had a coherent vision of the kind of Brexit they wanted in their 2017 manifestos so this wasn't just a May phenomenon - had Corbyn won that election, he may have had even more fun and games getting his party to take his line than May has managed - but she's the one who'll be remembered for it.

    A question I have been trying to think of an answer to for a long time, and particularly this year. As hard as I thought Brexit might be, which was pretty hard, I simply never conceived of a situation where 2 years into a new ministry the Tory party would not have coalesced around a coherent position (or even, god forbid, the parties could try to seek some common ground). It's a level of incompetence that can have no justification.
    As I said before, I think May's autobiography will be fascinating reading. What was she really thinking? Whenever we can seem to discern some rationale behind her choices, she negates it with her next move.
This discussion has been closed.