Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Tr

13

Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,405
    Danny565 said:

    It's always so reassuring that, in these times of intense divisions, we can still all unite to laugh at the Lib Dems.

    And the weather has been ideal for spotting the socks & sandals brigade.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited July 2018
    I can't believe I am going to say this.

    I am impressed by Liam Fox. He is a real grown up. Rare these days.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    I think I've sussed Theresa May's cunning plan. She'll accept ALL amendments. Since one lot of amendments directly contradicts the other lot, she can always claim that she's followed the will of parliament, whatever she does.

    Admittedly this is a novel development in constitutional practice, as well as bonkers, but, hey, muddling through is how we do things in the UK.

    I think her "plan", as far as there is one, is that she'll carry on trying to negotiate the "Chequers Deal" and will hope MPs will be persuaded to repeal yesterday's amendments when it's time to ratify the deal.

    It's not very good long-term thinking, of course, but I guess she feels she doesn't have the luxury of long-term thinking right now - as someone said yesterday, she's like a player in one of those video games where your only aim is to stay alive through to the end of each level. Any problems that you've created in the meantime will have to be solved later.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    MJW said:

    Freggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Elon had a bad day on twitter on sunday,
    France rioted monday
    Not looking great for Vince & Tim Farron on tuesday

    What is Vince doing anyway.
    It's time for him to hand over to Jo Swinson, then when the Tories kick out their second female leader in favour of a right wing older man, she can have a USP.

    Also, optics side, because he's doing a poor job
    Layla Moran may be a good bet if things move quickly. Swinson gave birth two weeks ago. Plus, she has coalition connections - which will be used as the Corbynistas key attack line, and if the Momentum machine is good at one thing it's flinging mud at left-leaning opponents with any hint of apostasy in their past. Moran could run as a candidate aiming to give the party a fresh start as insurgents on behalf of a liberal Britain cowed by extremists in both of the major parties.
    Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.
    She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.

    She's an excellent MP and extremely bright, with a real knack for communication and connecting with people, which is indeed exactly what the Lib Dems need, but it's way too soon for her.

    If Cable goes (he won't) and Jo Swinson's not yet in a position to go for it, I reckon we'd see a "caretaker" leadership from Ed Davey - not openly stated as such, but recognised implicitly.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It's always slightly jarring when something happens that reminds you Vince Cable and the Lib Dems still exist.

    I do wonder if complete and total invisibility and political irrelevance is part of a strategy, or the party is simply evaporating.

    The latter. They have the wrong leader. I quite liked Farron but the Lib Dems showed themselves to be rather illiberal in the way they treated him.

    They have lost their confidence and mojo and Cable is not the man to revive it.

    Incidentally, if Corbyn becomes PM while Trump is President we will be faced with the spectacle of two leaders who dismiss the views and expertise of their intelligence agencies and who may well be both mistrusted and (possibly) investigated by those same agencies.

    Truly, we are blessed to live in interesting times.
    I thought Cable would be quite a good leader.
    He was pretty good as acting leader a decade earlier.
    And now he can't even impersonate one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    When even Peston is doubting the EC then you know there is something fishy going on

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1019165426507542533
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    MJW said:

    Freggles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Elon had a bad day on twitter on sunday,
    France rioted monday
    Not looking great for Vince & Tim Farron on tuesday

    What is Vince doing anyway.
    It's time for him to hand over to Jo Swinson, then when the Tories kick out their second female leader in favour of a right wing older man, she can have a USP.

    Also, optics side, because he's doing a poor job
    Layla Moran may be a good bet if things move quickly. Swinson gave birth two weeks ago. Plus, she has coalition connections - which will be used as the Corbynistas key attack line, and if the Momentum machine is good at one thing it's flinging mud at left-leaning opponents with any hint of apostasy in their past. Moran could run as a candidate aiming to give the party a fresh start as insurgents on behalf of a liberal Britain cowed by extremists in both of the major parties.
    Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.
    She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.

    She's an excellent MP and extremely bright, with a real knack for communication and connecting with people, which is indeed exactly what the Lib Dems need, but it's way too soon for her.

    If Cable goes (he won't) and Jo Swinson's not yet in a position to go for it, I reckon we'd see a "caretaker" leadership from Ed Davey - not openly stated as such, but recognised implicitly.
    All good points, but maybe the Libs need to roll the dice this time?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Jonathan said:

    I can't believe I am going to say this.

    I am impressed by Liam Fox. He is a real grown up. Rare these days.

    Bit early in the day to be hallucinating surely? :lol:
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    A female Lib Dem leader would help wipe the stain of sexual harassment and abuse of male power within the party.Jo Swinson is evens favourite and Layla Moran has been backed down to 3-1 from 50-1 2nd favourite.This is serious money-none of mine and usually with the Lib Dems money talks.Could it be a Smithson-inspired coup?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Just found this, well worth watching (be aware over an hour) from 1989, but so relevant today:
    "Doublespeak
    William Lutz, professor of English at Rutgers University, discussed his t book Double-Speak: The Use of Language to Deceive You. A unique analysis of American English, examples of double-speak are “human kinetics” in place of “physical education,” and “pavement deficiencies” instead of “potholes.” Double-speak is consciously used to manipulate. Lutz points out that his mission is not to eradicate double-speak, but to eliminate double-speak from the discourse of important issues where it is most dangerous. He states that double-speak is most prevalent in government, followed closely by the advertising industry. "

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?10449-1/doublespeak
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    A female Lib Dem leader would help wipe the stain of sexual harassment and abuse of male power within the party.Jo Swinson is evens favourite and Layla Moran has been backed down to 3-1 from 50-1 2nd favourite.This is serious money-none of mine and usually with the Lib Dems money talks.Could it be a Smithson-inspired coup?

    I he Lib Dems market is very very thin compared to the other two
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    OchEye said:

    Just found this, well worth watching (be aware over an hour) from 1989, but so relevant today:
    "Doublespeak
    William Lutz, professor of English at Rutgers University, discussed his t book Double-Speak: The Use of Language to Deceive You. A unique analysis of American English, examples of double-speak are “human kinetics” in place of “physical education,” and “pavement deficiencies” instead of “potholes.” Double-speak is consciously used to manipulate. Lutz points out that his mission is not to eradicate double-speak, but to eliminate double-speak from the discourse of important issues where it is most dangerous. He states that double-speak is most prevalent in government, followed closely by the advertising industry. "

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?10449-1/doublespeak

    People often resort to euphemisms to make themselves feel easier about what they're going.

    "Special treatment", "Resettlement" , "enhanced interrogation" "collateral damage."
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    @DecrepitJohnL

    I had a Hammond organ once, although I haven't got it any more.

    I agree Morgan is an organ, but I assure you I have no desire to play with her!!

    (I take it also it's Stephen not Phil?)

    Right, back to the important business. I'm at Cheltenham and a young all-rounder called Hammond (ironically) has just scored a 50. Brexit taking us back to the 1930s and making us look like Wallys (sic).
  • Indigo1Indigo1 Posts: 47

    Indigo1 said:

    Apropos a discussion here a couple weeks ago on the merits of 'implicit bias training'

    https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/871780874282520578

    I think when a white police officer shoots an unarmed black child, and then a jury of white people acquit the officer of murder, there's nothing _implicit_ going on at all.
    I think it's saying you can think what you want, but the evidence says it doesn't make any difference. It's also possible what you might be think about is explicit bias.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
    So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881



    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)

    Most of the fault on the Lib Dems, but not exactly brilliant opposition tactics from Labour either.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Sean_F said:

    OchEye said:

    Just found this, well worth watching (be aware over an hour) from 1989, but so relevant today:
    "Doublespeak
    William Lutz, professor of English at Rutgers University, discussed his t book Double-Speak: The Use of Language to Deceive You. A unique analysis of American English, examples of double-speak are “human kinetics” in place of “physical education,” and “pavement deficiencies” instead of “potholes.” Double-speak is consciously used to manipulate. Lutz points out that his mission is not to eradicate double-speak, but to eliminate double-speak from the discourse of important issues where it is most dangerous. He states that double-speak is most prevalent in government, followed closely by the advertising industry. "

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?10449-1/doublespeak

    People often resort to euphemisms to make themselves feel easier about what they're going.

    "Special treatment", "Resettlement" , "enhanced interrogation" "collateral damage."
    "Glasgow Kiss", "Strong and Stable".
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    AndyJS said:

    'Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    16m16 minutes ago

    Italy, SWG poll:

    LEGA-ENF: 30% (-1)
    M5S-EFDD: 30% (+1)
    PD-S&D: 18%
    FI-EPP: 8%
    FdI-*: 4%
    LeU-S&D: 3% (+1)
    PaP-LEFT: 2%
    +E-ALDE: 2%

    Field work: 11/07/18 – 16/07/18
    Sample size: 1,500"

    Just imagine that here:

    UKIP 30%
    Monster Raving Loony 30%
    Labour 18%
    Conservatives 8%
    Give it time.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2018
    Time to call time! Even the normally clear thinking Jonathan has lost it. If Fox is 'a grown up' Hartlepool's a world heritage centre.

    We're in Dominic Cummings car hurtling towards the cliff with no brakes and no one at the wheel. He got it spot on. Just the wrong way round

    We need a financial crisis of such enormity that people start queuing to take their money out of the banks like the halcyon days of 2008. Nothing else will convince the nomads of the east coast that they got it badly wrong......

    Newsflash......the free market that we've just left is now 650 million people....free trade with japan...4 years in the planning....must have been arrangd before liam grew up........



  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
    So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?
    Yup , a good metaphor for how Brexit is going at the moment.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Indigo1 said:

    Apropos a discussion here a couple weeks ago on the merits of 'implicit bias training'

    https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/871780874282520578

    I think when a white police officer shoots an unarmed black child, and then a jury of white people acquit the officer of murder, there's nothing _implicit_ going on at all.
    Calling it implicit bias helps to sidestep having to tell people that they are bad people. This probably makes it easier to convince people to change, as they will then be less defensive.

    If the training simply addresses bias, but only calls it implicit bias, then it might still work - but that would have to be tested separately.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    rkrkrk said:



    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)

    Most of the fault on the Lib Dems, but not exactly brilliant opposition tactics from Labour either.
    Tom Watson, among 15 or 16 others, did not bother turning up.

    We’re these votes important or not? It appears senior Labour and Lib Dem people think not.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078

    Vince Cable and Tim Farron were absent from last night's close vote and they are to blame for Tory hard-Brexit.Where were these fearless remoaners who had previously criticised Labour for failure to oppose?
    The Lib Dems are yellow to the core #Cablemustgo

    It is a bit of a leep to blame them for a hard Brexit when 3 labour mps voted with the government
    Cable's absence proves he is the midwife of a hard Tory brexit.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    rkrkrk said:



    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)

    Most of the fault on the Lib Dems, but not exactly brilliant opposition tactics from Labour either.
    Tom Watson, among 15 or 16 others, did not bother turning up.

    We’re these votes important or not? It appears senior Labour and Lib Dem people think not.
    Didn't realise that. Then yes - equally bad from Labour.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
    So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?
    As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    rkrkrk said:



    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)

    Most of the fault on the Lib Dems, but not exactly brilliant opposition tactics from Labour either.
    Tom Watson, among 15 or 16 others, did not bother turning up.

    We’re these votes important or not? It appears senior Labour and Lib Dem people think not.
    It suggests either they expect the EU to say 'No,' or they are stupid.

    As Watson is involved, could be either.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
    So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?
    As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."
    He's made it a hard one for all of us.

    Ah, my coat...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    This would be big news on any other day, but likely to pass under the radar right now. The academy chickens are coming home to roost. https://schoolsweek.co.uk/embattled-bright-tribe-academy-trust-to-close/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136


    Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.
    She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.

    Party leaders tend to get a bit of boost in their own constituencies, don't they? I wouldn't have thought the higher profile would do her any harm, especially when it comes to squeezing the Lab vote there.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785

    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    It's always slightly jarring when something happens that reminds you Vince Cable and the Lib Dems still exist.

    I do wonder if complete and total invisibility and political irrelevance is part of a strategy, or the party is simply evaporating.

    The latter. They have the wrong leader. I quite liked Farron but the Lib Dems showed themselves to be rather illiberal in the way they treated him.

    They have lost their confidence and mojo and Cable is not the man to revive it.

    Incidentally, if Corbyn becomes PM while Trump is President we will be faced with the spectacle of two leaders who dismiss the views and expertise of their intelligence agencies and who may well be both mistrusted and (possibly) investigated by those same agencies.

    Truly, we are blessed to live in interesting times.
    I thought Cable would be quite a good leader.
    He was pretty good as acting leader a decade earlier.
    A lot of water flowed under the bridge between 2007 and 2017 but Cable stayed.
    It must have been a very high Cable stayed bridge, of the sort that flew over most people's heads!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793


    Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.
    She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.

    Party leaders tend to get a bit of boost in their own constituencies, don't they? I wouldn't have thought the higher profile would do her any harm, especially when it comes to squeezing the Lab vote there.
    (Somewhere, Tim Farron is twitching and he doesn't know why...)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    This would be big news on any other day, but likely to pass under the radar right now. The academy chickens are coming home to roost. https://schoolsweek.co.uk/embattled-bright-tribe-academy-trust-to-close/

    No tears will be shed for it, I think. In fact, I think there would be no tears shed if every academy chain was wound up. Less competent, less accountable, less knowledgeable and less well-meaning versions of LEAs - which is like saying somebody is more dishonest than Goebbels.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html




    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870


    Layla is not going to be leader in the short term.
    She's a new MP, she's got a majority in three figures, and she's going to have to focus on building up her personal vote in her constituency for the next few years.

    Party leaders tend to get a bit of boost in their own constituencies, don't they? I wouldn't have thought the higher profile would do her any harm, especially when it comes to squeezing the Lab vote there.
    Barring a national Lib Dem collapse, she's a shoo-in in OxWAb next time. Very strong local recognition, energetic activists, and the Tories in Oxfordshire are on the retreat overall (some very entertaining ructions in Cameron's former West Oxfordshire stronghold in recent months).

    The biggest danger to her majority is if the party nationally falls back... and, I'm afraid to say, that's more likely if either Vince Cable or Jo Swinson is leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:



    PS Don't forget to consider the weirdly-possible edge case of "he gets impeached or 25th-amendment-ed and driven out of office, but still wins the 2020 GOP nomination".

    Oh, that is brilliant. You're absolutely right: there's nothing in the constitution preventing a president driven from office from running again, or from winning and resuming the position.

    Correction Yes, there is something in the constitution that could prevent it but it isn't necessarily invoked upon a convicted impeachment and requires a second vote.

    That said, I think if the GOP were willing to go as far as to convict Trump, they'd make damn sure he couldn't run again.
    In which case the Trump base would tefuse to turn out in 2020 or go third party thus handing the election to Sanders or Warren.

    The Tories have the same problem if hard Brexiteers stay at home or vote UKIP thus handing the next general election to Corbyn
    You speak as though 'hard Brexiteers' are a larger minority than 'soft Brexiteers'. I suspect that Remainers plus soft Brexiteers would form a majority that the Tories could win, if they tried!
    Not on the latest Yougov which has 40% of all voters and 64% of Tories thinking May's Chequers Deal too soft a deal with the EU, just 12% of voters think the Chequers Deal is still too hard a Brexit and 13% think it is about right

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/12/conservatives-are-suffering-events-following-chequ/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    I have never heard or seen Layla Moran speak.
    However if she can be the voice of:
    - “Fucked” business
    - the Union
    - Anti-Putinism
    - Those with most to lose from Brexit (young people or more broadly speaking anyone under 65)

    Then they should make the change immediately.

    There’s no time to fanny about.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    ydoethur said:

    This would be big news on any other day, but likely to pass under the radar right now. The academy chickens are coming home to roost. https://schoolsweek.co.uk/embattled-bright-tribe-academy-trust-to-close/

    No tears will be shed for it, I think. In fact, I think there would be no tears shed if every academy chain was wound up. Less competent, less accountable, less knowledgeable and less well-meaning versions of LEAs - which is like saying somebody is more dishonest than Goebbels.
    There are occasional MATs which are more competent and better resourced than the local LA - Mrs Capitano is head at one such school. But few and far between, I agree.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
    So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?
    As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."
    To be fair , many did not.

    Does The Liberal Party still exist ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Yorkcity said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
    So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?
    As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."
    To be fair , many did not.

    Does The Liberal Party still exist ?
    Just about. They have 9 councillors.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Freggles said:

    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html




    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say

    Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    TGOHF said:

    When even Peston is doubting the EC then you know there is something fishy going on

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1019165426507542533

    This is fantastic. I'm a Tory, a working class oik, but i'm loving the absolute evisceration of the cosy little setup. The mask has so slipped its incredible to watch. I dont know if Trump will ever actually 'Drain the swamp', but Brexit is well and truly draining it here.

    A joy to observe. Shame we have to leave the EU for it all to happen though.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
    Are you suggesting something about their non-attendance? They need to be paired with someone from the other side.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited July 2018

    Freggles said:

    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html
    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say

    Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.
    "There is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it."

    That doesn't sound like CETA - that actually is the EEA. There's no other honest way to read that sentence.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I have never heard or seen Layla Moran speak.
    However if she can be the voice of:
    - “Fucked” business
    - the Union
    - Anti-Putinism
    - Those with most to lose from Brexit (young people or more broadly speaking anyone under 65)

    Then they should make the change immediately.

    There’s no time to fanny about.

    :+1:
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.

    - Changing the electoral system
    - Changing the flag

    In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.

    For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.

    We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.

    I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.

    For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Sean_F said:

    Gay sex is more important.

    Are you suggesting something about their non-attendance? They need to be paired with someone from the other side.
    Actually, you need to be paired for any kind of sex or else it does not work.... :D
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Freggles said:

    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html




    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say

    Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.
    Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefacts
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776

    Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.

    - Changing the electoral system
    - Changing the flag

    In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.

    For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.

    We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.

    I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.

    For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.

    The Scottish vote was pretty much inevitable.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Leadsom should get some flak for proposing an even longer holiday for MPs
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Sean_F said:

    Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.

    - Changing the electoral system
    - Changing the flag

    In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.

    For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.

    We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.

    I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.

    For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.

    The Scottish vote was pretty much inevitable.
    I'm perplexed by Gardenwalker's insistence on treating it as equivalent to the Brexit referendum.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    Freggles said:



    Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefacts

    The EU extends to within 25km of Canada at its closest point: St Pierre and Miquelon to Newfoundland.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.

    - Changing the electoral system
    - Changing the flag

    In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.

    For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.

    We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.

    I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.

    For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.

    Absolutely. Most of the turmoil we've had since the referendum was the fault of Cameron for not setting it up in such a way for us to vote on something specific.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    SNP call for Cabinet Ministers who were involved with Vote Leave to be forced to stand down.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html




    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say

    Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.
    Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefacts
    Well the facts are that Vote Leave were talking about a new trade deal for the UK, based on free trade and friendly co-operation. Which is a CETA type FTA deal, not membership of the EEA. And since the UK is between Iceland and Russia, not sure what your point it assuming you even have one.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    What’s all this about Brexit only being a problem for large businesses?

    Tory Party shitting on its natural support.

    https://twitter.com/mightbnormal/status/1018976906996322304?s=21

    Brexit is bad for small businesses and the Tories are now an anti-business party. But I am a bit suspicious of this tweet.

    I can't see why a small manufacturing business would throw the towel in right now. We still don't know the regulatory regime we'll be under from next spring, but given we still might have a soft Brexit or even not leave altogether it doesn't seem like a good time to give in.

    (Planning future investment is quite a different question of course.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    notme said:

    TGOHF said:

    When even Peston is doubting the EC then you know there is something fishy going on

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1019165426507542533

    This is fantastic. I'm a Tory, a working class oik, but i'm loving the absolute evisceration of the cosy little setup. The mask has so slipped its incredible to watch. I dont know if Trump will ever actually 'Drain the swamp', but Brexit is well and truly draining it here.

    A joy to observe. Shame we have to leave the EU for it all to happen though.
    Remain and its campaigns spent £28m including the £9m tax payer funded leaflet Cameron sent to all households - £19m excluding that - and Leave spent £13.5 milion.

    The amount involved in the EC investigation re Beleave is barely 10 per cent of the amount by which the official remain campaigns exceeded leave's spending.

    Why was that deemed fair by the EC - that one campaign can spend twice as much as the other?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.

    Soames too.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019190808434696192
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669

    Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.

    Soames too.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019190808434696192
    No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    What’s all this about Brexit only being a problem for large businesses?

    Tory Party shitting on its natural support.

    https://twitter.com/mightbnormal/status/1018976906996322304?s=21

    Brexit is bad for small businesses and the Tories are now an anti-business party. But I am a bit suspicious of this tweet.

    I can't see why a small manufacturing business would throw the towel in right now. We still don't know the regulatory regime we'll be under from next spring, but given we still might have a soft Brexit or even not leave altogether it doesn't seem like a good time to give in.

    (Planning future investment is quite a different question of course.)
    yes, if you read through his tweets he has much greater problems... Life is so much better when we have someone / something to blame.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    Sean_F said:

    Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.

    - Changing the electoral system
    - Changing the flag

    In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.

    For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.

    We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.

    I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.

    For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.

    The Scottish vote was pretty much inevitable.
    I'm perplexed by Gardenwalker's insistence on treating it as equivalent to the Brexit referendum.
    My point it was badly designed.

    - Only a bare majority required
    - 16 year olds allowed to vote (why?)
    - Scottish expats not allowed to vote

    As with Brexit, Cameron thought he could walk it and have not the slightest thought to setting up a properly thought out decision on a matter of vital constitutional significance.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......

    Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.

    The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.

    Soames too.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019190808434696192
    No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?
    A general election and majority for Corbyn would lead to a softish Brexit I think. Of course it might create other problems, but it'd sort Brexit more so than the Tories can at the moment ^_~
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Sean_F said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can I bet on a Government defeat ?

    Looks fairly obvious seeing as all last night's rebels will rebel again and Tim Farron won't be preaching about gay sex this time round.
    A Govt. defeat will be an extra side-order of fucked-upness....

    But beware - if Cable and Farron were paired, no net benefit to their being there tonight.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44857689

    Looks like they weren't paired..

    "Sir Vince Cable's absence from a crucial Commons vote on Brexit on Monday was a "bit unfortunate", a Liberal Democrat source has said.
    The party leader and his predecessor Tim Farron both missed a vote on the Customs Bill which the government ended up winning by three votes.
    A source said Sir Vince was elsewhere at a confidential political meeting "outside of the parliamentary estate".
    Mr Farron said he had "called it wrong" and was sorry for what had happened.
    All the party's other MPs voted against the government on amendments to legislation defining the UK's customs arrangements with the EU after it leaves in March 2019."
    WTF. No LibDem should be anywhere but the Chamber for every single EU vote, or how can they claim to be the anti-brexit party?

    Gay sex is more important.
    They weren't paired, as I understand it - rather, the party decided oh well, we're not going to win this vote anyway 'cos we imagine Labour will probably abstain, so sure, do your own things. (Labour didn't abstain.)
    So Farron's obsession with gay sex has buggered chances of a soft Brexit?
    As people said in 1979, "I'm buggered if I'll vote Liberal again."
    To be fair , many did not.

    Does The Liberal Party still exist ?
    Just about. They have 9 councillors.
    Is that more than UKIP?
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.

    Soames too.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019190808434696192
    No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?
    CETA plus would get through the HoC. Which Tory remainer MPs will vote against it in favour of No Deal?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Roger said:

    'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......

    Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.

    The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.

    The remain campaign spent more than the leave campaign though.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    notme said:

    TGOHF said:

    When even Peston is doubting the EC then you know there is something fishy going on

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1019165426507542533

    This is fantastic. I'm a Tory, a working class oik, but i'm loving the absolute evisceration of the cosy little setup. The mask has so slipped its incredible to watch. I dont know if Trump will ever actually 'Drain the swamp', but Brexit is well and truly draining it here.

    A joy to observe. Shame we have to leave the EU for it all to happen though.
    Let's not get ahead of ourselves. At the moment it's he-said-she-said
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    Sean_F said:

    OchEye said:

    Just found this, well worth watching (be aware over an hour) from 1989, but so relevant today:
    "Doublespeak
    William Lutz, professor of English at Rutgers University, discussed his t book Double-Speak: The Use of Language to Deceive You. A unique analysis of American English, examples of double-speak are “human kinetics” in place of “physical education,” and “pavement deficiencies” instead of “potholes.” Double-speak is consciously used to manipulate. Lutz points out that his mission is not to eradicate double-speak, but to eliminate double-speak from the discourse of important issues where it is most dangerous. He states that double-speak is most prevalent in government, followed closely by the advertising industry. "

    https://www.c-span.org/video/?10449-1/doublespeak

    People often resort to euphemisms to make themselves feel easier about what they're going.

    "Special treatment", "Resettlement" , "enhanced interrogation" "collateral damage."
    As Lutz says, politics is the world's third oldest occupation. But, even Shakespeare was at it, when Hamlet tells Ophelia to "get thee to a nunnery", using the euphemism of the period, he is telling her to go into a brothel, which is why she staged left, crying. Learnt quite a bit and seriously thinking about getting a reprint or download onto my kindle..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,776
    Roger said:

    'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......

    Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.

    The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.

    It would have to be the best advertising ever devised for £500,000 to convert 850,000 from Remain to Leave, and in the face of much higher spending from Remain.


  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited July 2018
    Roger said:

    'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......

    Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.

    The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.

    Remain overspent by far more than leave, not to mention the £9 million taxpayer funded leaflet sent to every house before the official campaign, yet the EC refuses to investigate them. This is nothing more than a politically motivated attempt to discredit the 2016 Vote
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    What’s all this about Brexit only being a problem for large businesses?

    Tory Party shitting on its natural support.

    https://twitter.com/mightbnormal/status/1018976906996322304?s=21

    Brexit is bad for small businesses and the Tories are now an anti-business party. But I am a bit suspicious of this tweet.

    I can't see why a small manufacturing business would throw the towel in right now. We still don't know the regulatory regime we'll be under from next spring, but given we still might have a soft Brexit or even not leave altogether it doesn't seem like a good time to give in.

    (Planning future investment is quite a different question of course.)
    I agree with being cautious about anything tainted with a "Brexit" label, but if I was running a small business with a large export component and I had to decide now on (say) a significant investment in equipment, stock, buildings (lease coming up for renewal, etc) or training then I might make the same decision.

    Who wants to be tied to a loan or lease over several years if Brexit bankrupts you next March?

    It is an absolutely horrible position to be in and it is a far, far bigger bet than people on PB make
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    On the Vote Leave overspend:

    - No this does not invalidate the decision.
    - Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.

    Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.

    Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Dura_Ace said:

    Freggles said:



    Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefacts

    The EU extends to within 25km of Canada at its closest point: St Pierre and Miquelon to Newfoundland.
    According to Wikipedia (if you follow the links to the COP page) it isn't part of the EU
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    SNP call for Cabinet Ministers who were involved with Vote Leave to be forced to stand down.

    delicious. It really is enjoyable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited July 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.

    Soames too.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019190808434696192
    No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?
    A general election and majority for Corbyn would lead to a softish Brexit I think. Of course it might create other problems, but it'd sort Brexit more so than the Tories can at the moment ^_~
    The Tories would then elect a hard Brexit leader to unite their base while a Corbyn Labour government would be split between pro EEA backbenchers and MPs from working class Labour Leave seats and likely reliant on minor parties
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,401

    On the Vote Leave overspend:

    - No this does not invalidate the decision.
    - Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.

    Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.

    Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.

    While that's true, isn't it also true that if Cabertossers for Brexit had been genuinely independent, then the same people who funded the official Leave campaigns could just have funded C4B directly, and to exactly the same effect? So the actual effect on how people voted is likely to have been minimal, at most?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.

    Soames too.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019190808434696192
    No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?
    "The political logic as well as the parliamentary arithmetic points to Labour supporting another referendum in the end. "

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/381f505a-8930-11e8-9b4b-d04c94d077dc
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Referendum fanciers should take tip from NZ last two big decisions.

    - Changing the electoral system
    - Changing the flag

    In both instances we were asked in a first referendum to choose an option to ultimately decide on.

    For example, in a vote on electoral systems, we chose MMP from a range of options (including AV) presented by the Electoral Commission. An Inquiry had already recommended MMP.

    We then had a second vote, as a straight yes / no: change to MMP or stay with first past the post.

    I will go to my death perplexed at the breathtaking incompetence and complacency demonstrated by Cameron in setting up both the Scottish vote and the Brexit vote.

    For this alone, he is the worst PM since the war. Yes, worse than May, Brown and Eden.

    Was it not part of the bluff? If you offered people a looser arrangement they would have taken it with both hands. Sell our widgets+immigration but not funding Spanish moterways etc.

    The 'all or nothing' was supposed to remain easily...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928

    On the Vote Leave overspend:

    - No this does not invalidate the decision.
    - Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.

    Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.

    It's only Gove doing its thing baby
    It's only Gove that you're feeling
    It's only Gove doing its thing baby
    It's only Gove that you're giving
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wollaston calls for Referendum to be rerun.

    Soames too.
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1019190808434696192
    No plan by May or the ERG will get through the HoC, what other option is there?
    A general election and majority for Corbyn would lead to a softish Brexit I think. Of course it might create other problems, but it'd sort Brexit more so than the Tories can at the moment ^_~
    The Tories would then elect a hard Brexit leader to unite their base while a Corbyn Labour government would be split between pro EEA backbenchers and MPs from working class Labour Leave seats and likely reliant on minor parties
    A Corbyn majority Gov't would have the numbers to get it through parliament even with rebellion on the hard brexit side as they'd have the SNP implicitly onboard with the CU stuff.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    On the Vote Leave overspend:

    - No this does not invalidate the decision.
    - Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.

    Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.

    Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.

    I do wonder what drives people like Cummings and Elliott.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812

    On the Vote Leave overspend:

    - No this does not invalidate the decision.
    - Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.

    Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.

    Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.

    While that's true, isn't it also true that if Cabertossers for Brexit had been genuinely independent, then the same people who funded the official Leave campaigns could just have funded C4B directly, and to exactly the same effect? So the actual effect on how people voted is likely to have been minimal, at most?
    Yes, but if my Aunt was my Uncle, etc.
    Also, unlikely the Cabertossers would have half a clue on digital media spend efficacy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html




    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say

    Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.
    Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefacts
    Rubbish! There's an Iceland down the road from here :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html




    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say

    Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.
    Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefacts
    Rubbish! There's an Iceland down the road from here :lol:
    BeLeave
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html




    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say

    Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.
    Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefacts
    Well the facts are that Vote Leave were talking about a new trade deal for the UK, based on free trade and friendly co-operation. Which is a CETA type FTA deal, not membership of the EEA. And since the UK is between Iceland and Russia, not sure what your point it assuming you even have one.
    If they were referring to CETA, why describe it as being between Iceland and the Russian border? Isn't that the borders of that EEA?

    Or more likely did they just not have a clue?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Sean_F said:

    Gay sex is more important.

    Are you suggesting something about their non-attendance? They need to be paired with someone from the other side.
    Actually, you need to be paired for any kind of sex or else it does not work.... :D
    I don't know. Both Selmayr and Gove seem to manage. :wink:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    Pulpstar said:

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html




    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say

    Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.
    Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefacts
    Rubbish! There's an Iceland down the road from here :lol:
    BeLeave
    I made a subtle change to my avatar exactly two months ago :)
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    hmmm... People who didnt like the result of the vote still dont like the result of the vote....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited July 2018
    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.

    Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "


    Source: http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade.html




    Oh the days when people listened to what Brexiters had to say

    Well that sounds like CETA. Strange that our Remainer government was more fussed about creating BINO than actually negotiating an FTA.
    Iceland is further away than Canada, is it? #alternativefacts
    Well the facts are that Vote Leave were talking about a new trade deal for the UK, based on free trade and friendly co-operation. Which is a CETA type FTA deal, not membership of the EEA. And since the UK is between Iceland and Russia, not sure what your point it assuming you even have one.
    If they were referring to CETA, why describe it as being between Iceland and the Russian border? Isn't that the borders of that EEA?

    Or more likely did they just not have a clue?
    The clue is in another of their briefings - http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal.html

    "We will build a new European institutional architecture that enables all countries, whether in or out of the EU or euro, to trade freely and cooperate in a friendly way."

    They thought they were going to blow up the entire European political architecture and put something new in its place.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    notme said:

    hmmm... People who didnt like the result of the vote still dont like the result of the vote....
    Which is a problem if you want the result of the vote to become a national consensus...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,962


    It's only Gove that you're feeling

    Forget the mind bleach, pass the bleach.....
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    'Vote Leave' cheated. Fact.......

    Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.

    The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.

    It would have to be the best advertising ever devised for £500,000 to convert 850,000 from Remain to Leave, and in the face of much higher spending from Remain.


    I want some of what Roger's been smoking. Guess the money spent on that government leaflet gained remain a good 6 million votes!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    edited July 2018


    It's only Gove that you're feeling

    Forget the mind bleach, pass the bleach.....
    Gove is a stranger
    In an open car
    To tempt you in
    And drive you far away

    And I want you
    And I want you
    And I want you so
    It's an obsession

    Gove is a danger
    Of a different kind
    To take you away
    And leave you far behind
    And Gove Gove Gove
    Is a dangerous drug
    You have to receive it
    And you still can't
    Get enough of the stuff
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited July 2018

    On the Vote Leave overspend:

    - No this does not invalidate the decision.
    - Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.

    Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.

    Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.

    I do wonder what drives people like Cummings and Elliott.
    What drives any political operative and adviser - it's a job and presumably in some respects they Beleave in what they are doing. They were certainly effective and their take back control message was a masterstroke and their campaign won despite spending 50 per cent less than their opponents.

    For the majority of the public though this technical matter is obscure in the extreme. The result wasn't changed by Beleave and this £0.5m. I think the leave win showed it did have rather a lot of support in the end out in the real world.

    What drives Alastair Campbell to provide PR advice to certain dictators who murder and torture their citizens or be the PR guy promoting the case for going to war in Iraq which has subsequently led to the death of hundreds of thousands of people as a result of the chaos caused. He still gets plenty of airtime!
This discussion has been closed.