Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.
The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.
It would have to be the best advertising ever devised for £500,000 to convert 850,000 from Remain to Leave, and in the face of much higher spending from Remain.
I want some of what Roger's been smoking. Guess the money spent on that government leaflet gained remain a good 6 million votes!
Leave had a much smarter digital and social media strategy. Much smarter.
Remain was totally feeble. Leavers are right to say it blew away all of its institutional advantage and was indeed “beaten by a bus”.
Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.
The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.
The remain campaign spent more than the leave campaign though.
And that ignores the £9m that was tax-payers money, sent out just before the official pending limits kicked in:
Wake me up when Leave have exceeded £9m with their "overspend". Otherwise, I plan to snooze through the synthetic outrage of sanctimonious fuckers like Chuka Umunna....
"We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade and friendly cooperation. We will carry on trading with Europe but we will also be able to negotiate trade agreements with other countries. This will help our economy grow and create more jobs.
Some claim we will not get a trade deal but there is a European free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border and we will be part of it. The idea that Britain will be the only country in Europe not to be part of this zone is silly. "
Ad spends and results are calculated all the time by ad agencies and with great accuracy. With just a 2% swing I'd be very surprised if the extra spending could be said not to have made a difference.
The point is it's reasonably calculable and if it's found to have made a difference (a shocking reflection on their advertising if it hasn't) then the result should be overturned. Not re-run but overturned.
It would have to be the best advertising ever devised for £500,000 to convert 850,000 from Remain to Leave, and in the face of much higher spending from Remain.
But Roger's world is one where you can throw money at a shit product to get people to buy it....
Mike, I think you are right that 70% is too high. I think that, if he makes it to the primaries, that would be too low, given how unshaken his base is and how they turn out preferentially at the primaries. But there is a lot of water between now and then, and always his age to take into account, even if he is by his own account the healthiest President that has ever lived.
- No this does not invalidate the decision. - Yes, senior Vote Leave leaders need to be disciplined properly.
Perhaps Gove should stand down from Cabinet.
Important to point out this was not an “accidental” overspend, but an illegal continuation of Cummings’ strategy to create AstroTurf Leave groups (Cabertossers for Brexit etc) to create an illusion of wide-spread support for Brexit in civil society.
I do wonder what drives people like Cummings and Elliott.
What drives any political operative and adviser - it's a job and presumably in some respects they Beleave in what they are doing. They were certainly effective and their take back control message was a masterstroke and their campaign won despite spending 50 per cent less than their opponents.
For the majority of the public though this technical matter is obscure in the extreme. The result wasn't changed by Beleave and this £0.5m. I think the leave win showed it did have rather a lot of support in the end out in the real world.
What drives Alastair Campbell to provide PR advice to certain dictators who murder and torture their citizens or be the PR guy promoting the case for going to war in Iraq which has subsequently led to the death of hundreds of thousands of people as a result of the chaos caused. He still gets plenty of airtime!
There is a wrinkle in the betting on US politics for this fall's election that I think might change odds but which may not yet be picked up on in the betting markets. With the focus on the changing make up of the Supreme Court and the potential threat that poses to Roe v Wade, Democratic Governors are deciding to run on the idea that they are the last line of defence re abortion rights
My wife, an independent who voted for Trump (as a physician she was appalled at what Obama had done and the prospect of what Hillary would do to the medical profession) but is now disgusted by him. She likes the Republican governor of MD, but her litmus test is Roe v Wade. Regardless of Hogan's accomplishments and style (much to like) and personal travails (he worked through cancer treatment), if it looks like having a Democratic governor is what it would take to protect abortion rights, she'd switch. Her vote in the Presidential and Congressional elections is already lost to the GOP until Trump is gone, given how spineless the GOP has been in standing up to Trump.
I am sure that there is a substantial slice of women who voted for Trump (while holding their noses) for whom this would be a vote-changing issue. Consequently, I would put Dem Gubernatorial candidates' chances a few notches higher than any polling might be currently indicating. Of course, this is of most consequence in the closer races.
Oh Dear! Perhaps we are leaving too soon, or is it the effectiveness of Liam Fox in getting trade negotiations with Japan? EU /Japan reduce all tariffs by 99%
For me, the most significant line in that was that it took four years to negotiate.
Why did the (British) civil servant who drew up Article 50 only allow 2? Did he think nobody would ever use it, did he think the EU would show some common sense and flexibility, or was he just very stupid?
Actually come to think of it, options 1 and 2 would suggest a less than significant intellect as well...
Three seem to be a lot of people claiming credit for Article 50. Personally, I think it is a good thing. Negotiations to leave the EU would otherwise take about 50 years
Time limits are not unreasonable, but this is too short. They could have said five years or an agreed date prior to that.
This is also the key reason why talks are getting into a mess.
We had a choice about when to invoke A50; it might have been sensible to give some thought to what happened afterwards before we did. And I'm skeptical that another couple of years would have done anything but given May more time to prevaricate.
There are many ways Brexit could have been managed; we didn't choose any of them.
The EU made it clear nothing was going to happen on Brexit until we invoked Article 50. And even when we did invoke it, nothing of substance was going to be talked about until the size of the cheque the EU was going to receive was settled.
Yes but we could have had the debate and reached agreement about what kind of relationship we wanted before invoking A50. And we could have refused to invoke it until the EU had given some kind of undertaking that what we wanted was possible.
But so many people wanted to jump out of the plane first and worry about how to operate the parachute later.
Great analogy - and frankly quite a few wanted to get out of the plane so much they weren't bothered whether they had a parachute or not.
Because they thought the pilot planned to lock the doors and hold them captive
Comments
Remain was totally feeble. Leavers are right to say it blew away all of its institutional advantage and was indeed “beaten by a bus”.
Another Cameron failure.
He accepted the vote and has been a voice of soft Brexit.
That he now refers to our much diminished state and the vandalism of our electoral system is significant.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35980571
Contrast with "the Electoral Commission says Vote Leave spent £7,449,079, breaching its £7m spending limit"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44856992
Wake me up when Leave have exceeded £9m with their "overspend". Otherwise, I plan to snooze through the synthetic outrage of sanctimonious fuckers like Chuka Umunna....
New thread
There is a wrinkle in the betting on US politics for this fall's election that I think might change odds but which may not yet be picked up on in the betting markets. With the focus on the changing make up of the Supreme Court and the potential threat that poses to Roe v Wade, Democratic Governors are deciding to run on the idea that they are the last line of defence re abortion rights
My wife, an independent who voted for Trump (as a physician she was appalled at what Obama had done and the prospect of what Hillary would do to the medical profession) but is now disgusted by him. She likes the Republican governor of MD, but her litmus test is Roe v Wade. Regardless of Hogan's accomplishments and style (much to like) and personal travails (he worked through cancer treatment), if it looks like having a Democratic governor is what it would take to protect abortion rights, she'd switch. Her vote in the Presidential and Congressional elections is already lost to the GOP until Trump is gone, given how spineless the GOP has been in standing up to Trump.
I am sure that there is a substantial slice of women who voted for Trump (while holding their noses) for whom this would be a vote-changing issue. Consequently, I would put Dem Gubernatorial candidates' chances a few notches higher than any polling might be currently indicating. Of course, this is of most consequence in the closer races.