Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters

1235

Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited July 2018
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    305-303

    If one moves back to Govt its a tie

    What happens then????

    The Speaker votes for the status quo, i.e. against the amendment.
    That is the rule, but Bercow doesn't like tradition, would he do so?
    I don't think that's a rule, merely a convention. Melville was impeached in 1805 on the casting vote of a speaker.
    By rule I don't mean binding rule, I mean it is known as Speaker Denison's Rule. That it is merely a convention is why i raised the point that he might not follow it - conventions do change. Erskine May notes that the 'decisions of successive speakers have not invariably been consistent' though it notes three principles that have emerged, namely to vote for further discussion where this is possible, decisions should not be taken except by a majority, and that casting vote on an amendment should leave the bill in its existing form.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    Sean_F said:

    MikeL said:

    justin124 said:

    The Government was also saved by Labour abstentions tonight. Perhaps pressure will be applied to them before 'ping pong' resumes in the Autumn.

    Yes - 12 Con rebels and 4 Lab rebels equals a Govt defeat if equal number of abstentions.

    Must have been approx 9 more Opposition abstentions than Con abstentions - that's a lot.
    If 20 - 25% of Labour voters support Leave, it's not surprising some Labour MP's abstain.
    O'Mara never turns up, for one.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    MikeL said:

    justin124 said:

    The Government was also saved by Labour abstentions tonight. Perhaps pressure will be applied to them before 'ping pong' resumes in the Autumn.

    Yes - 12 Con rebels and 4 Lab rebels equals a Govt defeat if equal number of abstentions.

    Must have been approx 9 more Opposition abstentions than Con abstentions - that's a lot.
    If 20 - 25% of Labour voters support Leave, it's not surprising some Labour MP's abstain.
    O'Mara never turns up, for one.
    Clearly can't trust those independents either...
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the Summer

    She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the Summer

    She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
    The grade maybe, not the pay.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,722
    edited July 2018
    Just heard Trump's press conference on how brilliantly successful his European trip was and how much NATO has been strengthened by it.

    Does anyone know what he's smoking and where I could get some?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,722
    edited July 2018
    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.

    And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    kle4 said:

    305-303

    If one moves back to Govt its a tie

    What happens then????

    The Speaker votes for the status quo, i.e. against the amendment.
    That is the rule, but Bercow doesn't like tradition, would he do so?
    He'd be sorely tempted to put the boot into the government, if he got the chance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    ydoethur said:

    Just heard Trump's press conference on how brilliantly successful his European trip was and how much NATO has been strengthened by it.

    Does anyone know what he's smoking and where I could get some?

    There was a UK supplier but Boris now has his entire stock.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    I like Cable, but after this he has to go.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.

    And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.
    In fairness to the Comission (not something you often here me say) they probably feel under siege, and this drives their unyielding stance.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    This is pretty brutal on Cable and Farron...

    https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1019200796649455618

    As for the Labour rebels who voted with the government I wish them a long happy retirement, soonish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the Summer

    She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
    Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,047
    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.

    And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.
    It is a fundamental of negotiating, that we do not get to choose the other side.

    The EU have made it clear from the beginning, and with complete solidarity, that Barnier was their negotiating lead. It shouldn't be a surprise.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702
    justin124 said:

    John Mann, Frank Field, Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer

    Just spared us a VONC
    But that would only have been a day of theatre which the Government would have won anyway. At the end of the day the Opposition can always table a No Confidence Vote.
    Exactly
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,722
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.

    And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.
    In fairness to the Comission (not something you often here me say) they probably feel under siege, and this drives their unyielding stance.
    The reason they are under siege is entirely due to their own failures, arrogance and complacency. They deserve no sympathy for panicking at a mess their uselessness and cronyism (to be charitable) has created.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    HYUFD said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the Summer

    She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
    Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/
    Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocrats
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    ydoethur said:

    Just heard Trump's press conference on how brilliantly successful his European trip was and how much NATO has been strengthened by it.

    Does anyone know what he's smoking and where I could get some?

    It is a sad indictment of the American healthcare system that there aren't institutions for people with this level of delusion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.

    And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.
    In other words he is doing their bidding and your diatribe against the Commission is wholly misplaced.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    ydoethur said:

    Just heard Trump's press conference on how brilliantly successful his European trip was and how much NATO has been strengthened by it.

    Does anyone know what he's smoking and where I could get some?

    It is a sad indictment of the American healthcare system that there aren't institutions for people with this level of delusion.
    It is called the presidency I believe...
  • Jonathan said:

    I like Cable, but after this he has to go.

    Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?

    The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,047

    HYUFD said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the Summer

    She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
    Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/
    Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocrats
    To be fair, Barnier is earning his crust much more than our hapless and hopeless ministers.

    David Davis managed 4 hours of Brexit negotiations this year, before his flounce.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706

    HYUFD said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the Summer

    She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
    Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/
    Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocrats
    Indeed, of course MEPs also earnt more than MPs, £84,000 plus travel expenses and office costs and daily expenses allowance compared to MPs £74,000 so it was a good gravy train to be on if you could get on it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,047

    Jonathan said:

    I like Cable, but after this he has to go.

    Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.
    I hope that we do not get another stitch up coronation. I have my doubts about Swinson and would like her tested in a contested hustings.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    GIN1138 said:
    Will the Tory Ukip switchers come back with the harder amendments
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    I like Cable, but after this he has to go.

    Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.
    I hope that we do not get another stitch up coronation. I have my doubts about Swinson and would like her tested in a contested hustings.
    :+1:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the Summer

    She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
    Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/
    Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocrats
    To be fair, Barnier is earning his crust much more than our hapless and hopeless ministers.

    David Davis managed 4 hours of Brexit negotiations this year, before his flounce.
    Saying non and repeating it ad nauseam is not earning anything - indeed may cost 40 billion
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Sean_F said:

    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?

    The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.
    Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Will the Tory Ukip switchers come back with the harder amendments
    The only party that will Brexit is the conservative party, but I hope without too much economic damage
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,261
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    And there, in a nutshell, is the problem. The Commission, legally, is wholly irrelevant to these discussions. They are Heads of Government matters. But Juncker arrogated negotiations to himself at the start - on Selmayr's advice, apparently - and with a brief to inflict no deal or a punishment deal on Britain pour encourager les autres. And because they were afraid of quarrelling among themselves, the HoGs let him do it.

    And we are where we are. If only they had grown a collective spine and taken the opportunity to sack him.
    It is a fundamental of negotiating, that we do not get to choose the other side.

    The EU have made it clear from the beginning, and with complete solidarity, that Barnier was their negotiating lead. It shouldn't be a surprise.
    Yes, I've not seen much sign of the HoGs quarrelling with either Juncker or Barnier. The HoGs are scattered over the Continent with their individual fish to fry and have no interest in getting into haggling over fine points of customs arrangements.

    Equally, I don't see much sign of the Commission wanting a punishment deal. They want a deal that doesn't change the architecture of the EU but, subject to that, allows continued good trading relations. It's the Brits who keep arguing for magic creativity, in the few moments that we can spare from arguing among ourselves.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,047

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    OchEye said:

    To be honest. It is time for everyone to go on summer leave and let TM get on negotiating with the 27 leaders.

    She will be negotiating with the Commission who act on the instructions of the 27 other leaders.
    Actually she is not going to deal with them. She is meeting each leader one on one throughout the Summer

    She is the elected leader of the UK and Barnier is below her pay grade
    Technically not, Barnier earns £213 000 a year compared to the PM's £143,462

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4350480/eus-chief-brexit-negotiator-michel-barnier-earns-72k-more-than-uk-counterpart-david-davis/
    Just shows how the EU overpays non elected technocrats
    To be fair, Barnier is earning his crust much more than our hapless and hopeless ministers.

    David Davis managed 4 hours of Brexit negotiations this year, before his flounce.
    Saying non and repeating it ad nauseam is not earning anything - indeed may cost 40 billion
    It was always going to be No Deal Brexit, or on EU terms. We just get to choose between.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Pulpstar said:

    The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.

    My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.

    Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    Hello all!

    The way things are going, it's surely going to be a binary decision between the hardest of hard Brexits and remaining in the EU (through an infinite transition period).

    The sane choice is obvious!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    GIN1138 said:
    GIN1138 said:
    Bot infested comments abound BTL there. Most unable to form coherent sentences in modern, colloquial British English.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    RoyalBlue said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.

    My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.

    Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.
    Ooh the govt votes against themselves ?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    RoyalBlue said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.

    My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.

    Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.
    Would never have happened. There would be no time for deselection.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    RoyalBlue said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.

    My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.

    Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.
    A VONC in which the government would whip its own MPs to no confidence itself?
    Because the numbers aren't there otherwise.
    I suppose we are not beyond that ludicrous position.
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    I like Cable, but after this he has to go.

    Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.
    I hope that we do not get another stitch up coronation. I have my doubts about Swinson and would like her tested in a contested hustings.
    She's been extremely skillful at getting everyone to forget how ' coalicous ' she was. She was a huge Clegg cheer leader in government and what means for the future needs testing. Though a lot of that is having lost in 2015 then regained her seat in 2017. It demonstrates resilience and political skill and sense of already having had your punishment beating. My sense is she's the obvious bridge between the party's establishment wings and the need for complete reinvention. The Jodie Whittaker choice if you like. Though if she played it right Hobhouse's German accent could be an interesting foil for many of the more remainiac new members. I haven't been a party member since 2012 and have no lans to rejoin. But from an external perspective the party seems in a dire state and is still fundamentally in denial about it's political system failue in coalition. But you can only elect leader those willing and qualified to stand. Not much choice.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Field, Hoey, Hopkins, Mann and Stringer all voted with the Government to leave the Customs Union

    https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019282377850449920

    That will upset Faisal Islam
    Gutto Bebb voted for Customs Union Ammendment - but not the earlier one lost by Government.
    I have made my views on him to his constituency chairman. He is my mp
    If you want the Airbus flag to keep flying at Broughton and for Welsh sheep farmers to stay in business, amongst many other reasons to retain the customs union, you might congratulate Gutto Bebb for being realistic and sensible.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    murali_s said:

    Hello all!

    The way things are going, it's surely going to be a binary decision between the hardest of hard Brexits and remaining in the EU (through an infinite transition period).

    The sane choice is obvious!

    "Surely" is doing a lot of work there. The possibility of a deal being done remains non-zero, even if its probability is lower now.

    Also, I don't think "infinite transition period" is an option - if the UK stays permanently within the EU it will be as a member, not a state in eternal transition, and that is going to take either a referendum or a general election to sort out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So who had "Trump to 180 on his statement during the Pugin press conference"? Everyone? Everyone had it? Oh.

    https://www.twitter.com/ddale8/status/1019292470146977793
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,835
    Personally I'm hoping Laws or Thorpe makes a comeback
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    RoyalBlue said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.

    My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.

    Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.
    Would never have happened. There would be no time for deselection.
    I beg to differ.
  • He's also being a sexist ****. Swinson was ' paired ' as she's on Maternity leave.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    FF43 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Field, Hoey, Hopkins, Mann and Stringer all voted with the Government to leave the Customs Union

    https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019282377850449920

    That will upset Faisal Islam
    Gutto Bebb voted for Customs Union Ammendment - but not the earlier one lost by Government.
    I have made my views on him to his constituency chairman. He is my mp
    If you want the Airbus flag to keep flying at Broughton and for Welsh sheep farmers to stay in business, amongst many other reasons to retain the customs union, you might congratulate Gutto Bebb for being realistic and sensible.
    Staying in the customs union is the least of Airbus's worries.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:
    Will the Tory Ukip switchers come back with the harder amendments
    The only party that will Brexit is the conservative party, but I hope without too much economic damage
    Corbyn actually believes in Brexit unlike May.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    RoyalBlue said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The govt would have won a VONC easily, the only danger of that ever being lost is if the Irish sea vote had been lost.

    My interpretation is that the whips were saying that were the bill to be lost, there would be a VONC in order to trigger a general election.

    Rebels get deselected, Corbyn might get in. Good motivation to do the right thing.
    Would never have happened. There would be no time for deselection.
    I beg to differ.
    Yeh, me too. Many (most? All?) Tory selections happened after the election was called
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    I like Cable, but after this he has to go.

    Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.
    I really don’t know what to make of the Lib Dem’s after this.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    My recollection with IDS is that the polls were within an inch of the Tories slipping behind the Lib Dems into third place, so the runes were easier to read and the Quiet Man had to go. It's not completely obvious that Theresa will poll worse than any replacement.

    Sone polls actually had the Tories under IDS ahead of Blair's Labour, there was no poll I recall with Kennedy's LDs ahead of IDS' Tories
    Yep you are correct

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    That's true.
    So was Stark Dawning's statement as well.
    The run of 8 polls between 21/09/03 and 05/10/03 could certainly be characterised as having the Tories within an inch of sliding into third place - including one three-way on 31 each.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Pulpstar said:

    Personally I'm hoping Laws or Thorpe makes a comeback

    I think it's a bit late for Jeremy Thorpe's comeback
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    RoyalBlue said:

    MikeL said:

    justin124 said:

    The Government was also saved by Labour abstentions tonight. Perhaps pressure will be applied to them before 'ping pong' resumes in the Autumn.

    Yes - 12 Con rebels and 4 Lab rebels equals a Govt defeat if equal number of abstentions.

    Must have been approx 9 more Opposition abstentions than Con abstentions - that's a lot.
    How does this work?

    Excluding Sinn Fein and speakers the Government has a majority of 13. That means 7 Tory rebels can defeat the government. If 5 Labour MPs vote with the government, 12 rebels becomes the magic number.

    You only need 2 more Lab abstentions for the Government to win. I’d be surprised if Caroline Flint would ever vote for any of these amendments that neuter Brexit. You only need 1 more.
    Yes, apologies - my mistake.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    What exactly are the Libdems playing at? I mean as a brexiteer I'm happy they didn't vote again.....but why? Surely they would've known it was going to be a close vote?
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I like Cable, but after this he has to go.

    Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.
    I really don’t know what to make of the Lib Dem’s after this.
    My guess is it's a genuine cock up rooted in not having come to terms with their reduced status. The " usual channels " are open to the three biggest Commons parties ( and de facto the DUP due to the C + S agreement ). Folk like Cable ( who wasn't in the Commons '15 to '17 ) just won't be used to having to sit their all night not having the faintest idea whether they are needed or not. It'll be an adjustment but this entirely deserved bad press will help with it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Sean_F said:

    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?

    The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.
    Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?
    No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.

    I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    murali_s said:

    Hello all!

    The way things are going, it's surely going to be a binary decision between the hardest of hard Brexits and remaining in the EU (through an infinite transition period).

    The sane choice is obvious!

    Try telling the likes of Anna Soubry that!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?

    The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.
    Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?
    No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.

    I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.
    Didn't she vote for an EU referendum, before it was official Tory policy?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,702

    He's also being a sexist ****. Swinson was ' paired ' as she's on Maternity leave.
    Paired with Lewis who then went on to vote
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    My recollection with IDS is that the polls were within an inch of the Tories slipping behind the Lib Dems into third place, so the runes were easier to read and the Quiet Man had to go. It's not completely obvious that Theresa will poll worse than any replacement.

    Sone polls actually had the Tories under IDS ahead of Blair's Labour, there was no poll I recall with Kennedy's LDs ahead of IDS' Tories
    Yep you are correct

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
    That's true.
    So was Stark Dawning's statement as well.
    The run of 8 polls between 21/09/03 and 05/10/03 could certainly be characterised as having the Tories within an inch of sliding into third place - including one three-way on 31 each.
    I was going to point this out earlier but thought that the thread had moved on. What's interesting to me is that IDS actually had a pretty decent spell in the polls (this is putting it somewhat charitably as the degree of his personal responsibility for this is contestable) followed by a slump, and that very little patience was extended during the slump and little or no credit granted for the previous successful period, even though it was in recent memory.

    Itchy trigger fingers are A Thing. Perhaps being in government rather than opposition makes them slightly more reticent, but a prolonged polling slump will not be good news for May and "prolonged" here might be measured in weeks rather than months.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755
    Cricket is dirtier than politics.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    Sean_F said:

    Cricket is dirtier than politics.
    Cricket is exceeded only by golf in terms of its tedium.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    I like Cable, but after this he has to go.

    Cable will go but not until Swinson is ready and she's just given birth. With Lamb not being prepated to tone down his euroscepticism ( by Lib Dem standards ) and Moran and Hobhouse not being ready she really is the only choice.
    I really don’t know what to make of the Lib Dem’s after this.
    My guess is it's a genuine cock up rooted in not having come to terms with their reduced status. The " usual channels " are open to the three biggest Commons parties ( and de facto the DUP due to the C + S agreement ). Folk like Cable ( who wasn't in the Commons '15 to '17 ) just won't be used to having to sit their all night not having the faintest idea whether they are needed or not. It'll be an adjustment but this entirely deserved bad press will help with it.
    That’s fair, but perhaps a little generous. Given their position on the EU, you’d have thought they would have voted even if it wasn’t close.

    If I knew it was close, they really have no excuse.

    If you can be bothered to turn up for your principal policy, you shouldn’t bother at all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786
    Sean_F said:

    Cricket is dirtier than politics.
    Wait until political spot betting takes off.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Jeremy Corbyn has been told he’s “a fucking anti-semite” by a veteran Jewish MP after the party upheld controversial new guidelines on tackling anti-semitism.

    Furious former minister Margaret Hodge confronted the Labour leader after the crunch Commons votes on Brexit, telling him he didn’t want people like her in the party any more, HuffPost UK has been told....

    ...And Hodge decided to take the matter directly to Corbyn, remonstrating with him in the Commons once the key Brexit votes were over.

    “You’re a fucking anti-Semite and a racist,” Hodge told him. “You have proved you don’t want people like me in the party”.

    Several witnesses in different parties witnessed the attack. One said that Corbyn replied: “I’m sorry you feel like that.”

    A party source confirmed to HuffPost that the account of the exchange was accurate.

    “She was aggressive, Jeremy was calm. Other MPs who were there were upset by it,” the source said.

    It is likely that Hodge will now be referred to the party whips for possible misconduct.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-told-by-veteran-jewish-mp-youre-a-fucking-racist-and-anti-semite-margaret-hodge_uk_5b4e34cbe4b0fd5c73bfe020
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,755

    Sean_F said:

    Cricket is dirtier than politics.
    Cricket is exceeded only by golf in terms of its tedium.
    Golf is tedious beyond belief. But, cricket is subtle and fascinating. It's like playing Diplomacy. The rules are ostensibly easy to learn, but in reality, there are wheels within wheels.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Cricket is a gentle five day piss up in the sun. What’s not to like? Remarkably subtle too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,909
    Jonathan said:

    Cricket is a gentle five day piss up in the sun. What’s not to like? Remarkably subtle too.

    Do they call it a test match because, it, ah, "tests" your patience? :lol:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    FF43 said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Field, Hoey, Hopkins, Mann and Stringer all voted with the Government to leave the Customs Union

    https://mobile.twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1019282377850449920

    That will upset Faisal Islam
    Gutto Bebb voted for Customs Union Ammendment - but not the earlier one lost by Government.
    I have made my views on him to his constituency chairman. He is my mp
    If you want the Airbus flag to keep flying at Broughton and for Welsh sheep farmers to stay in business, amongst many other reasons to retain the customs union, you might congratulate Gutto Bebb for being realistic and sensible.
    He is not popular and has fought his constituency chair in the past. He was Plaid at one time and of course is in a highly marginal seat with a Corbynista fighting for it.

    TM will protect our main manufacturers and Airbus welcomed Chequers
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    This is not cricket
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    For all the abject uselessness of May's government the much-vaunted Remain majority in parliament has been even more useless!

    It has achieved the square root of fuck all in the chamber.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    This is not cricket
    I thought there wasn’t pairing on three line whips?
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438

    This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling handmaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.

    Your first two sentences are complete and utter nonsense. Your third sentence has more merit.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Fenster said:

    For all the abject uselessness of May's government the much-vaunted Remain majority in parliament has been even more useless!

    It has achieved the square root of fuck all in the chamber.

    Five votes against a customs union so far :D
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mortimer said:

    This is not cricket
    I thought there wasn’t pairing on three line whips?
    If you make a promise, you should keep it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    Sean_F said:

    Cricket is dirtier than politics.
    Cricket is exceeded only by golf in terms of its tedium.
    Not if you are playing it
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?

    The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.
    Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?
    No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.

    I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.
    It was clearly fake support so she could win headlines of "Brexiteer sees the light".
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    This is not cricket
    I thought there wasn’t pairing on three line whips?
    If you make a promise, you should keep it.
    Of course. But I’m wondering about the process.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling handmaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.

    image
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Did I miss anything?
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    nunuone said:

    What exactly are the Libdems playing at? I mean as a brexiteer I'm happy they didn't vote again.....but why? Surely they would've known it was going to be a close vote?

    Not so, since Labour said openly that they were going to abstain (as usual). The worst you can accuse the Lib Dems of is that they took Labour at its word. The moral is never to believe Labour about anything.

    And then Labour did an about turn - except for the Labour MPs who abstained, of course, and those who actually voted for Mrs May.

    The normal tactic from Labour in such a situation is to defect attention from their own inadequacies by blaming the Lib Dems for everything.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Out of interest would it actually be likely to be in a position to have a GE within 2 weeks of a VONC? I'm no GE expert but it doesn't seem like very long.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    This hard Tory brexit has revealed the true intentions of the Lib Dems,to be the enabling handmaidens of the Tories.Cable and Farron are the midwives of a hard Tory brexit and the allies of the ERG.My money is on May clinging on,but Cable getting the boot before her.

    image
    Shhhh. Don't mention John McDonnell voting to leave the single market.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise the government.

    Much as they hate the ERG, they hate Corbyn more.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    PClipp said:

    nunuone said:

    What exactly are the Libdems playing at? I mean as a brexiteer I'm happy they didn't vote again.....but why? Surely they would've known it was going to be a close vote?

    Not so, since Labour said openly that they were going to abstain (as usual). The worst you can accuse the Lib Dems of is that they took Labour at its word. The moral is never to believe Labour about anything.

    And then Labour did an about turn - except for the Labour MPs who abstained, of course, and those who actually voted for Mrs May.

    The normal tactic from Labour in such a situation is to defect attention from their own inadequacies by blaming the Lib Dems for everything.
    Ahh right, so your saying we shouldn't concentrate on the Lib Dems inadequacies because Labour are to blame for it....

    This might be a good time to repeat Andy_Cooke's GIF.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001

    The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise the government.

    Much as they hate the ERG, they hate Corbyn more.

    12 of them did
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315

    Jeremy Corbyn has been told he’s “a fucking anti-semite” by a veteran Jewish MP after the party upheld controversial new guidelines on tackling anti-semitism.

    Furious former minister Margaret Hodge confronted the Labour leader after the crunch Commons votes on Brexit, telling him he didn’t want people like her in the party any more, HuffPost UK has been told....

    ...And Hodge decided to take the matter directly to Corbyn, remonstrating with him in the Commons once the key Brexit votes were over.

    “You’re a fucking anti-Semite and a racist,” Hodge told him. “You have proved you don’t want people like me in the party”.

    Several witnesses in different parties witnessed the attack. One said that Corbyn replied: “I’m sorry you feel like that.”

    A party source confirmed to HuffPost that the account of the exchange was accurate.

    “She was aggressive, Jeremy was calm. Other MPs who were there were upset by it,” the source said.

    It is likely that Hodge will now be referred to the party whips for possible misconduct.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-told-by-veteran-jewish-mp-youre-a-fucking-racist-and-anti-semite-margaret-hodge_uk_5b4e34cbe4b0fd5c73bfe020

    That's not very parliamentary language - but shows she is spending more time in her constituency. She is talking more like a Barking and Dagenham local!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    The Tory remainers are clearly not prepared to do anything that could jeapordise the government.

    Much as they hate the ERG, they hate Corbyn more.

    Remained need to get serious or give up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Don't get this nonsense from Tory sources. A GE vote in 2 weeks would have been won by the Government, unless a load of Moggsters decided Corbyn was better than May.

    Or am I missing something?

    The only MP I could imagine refusing to support the government on a vote of confidence is Sarah Wollaston.
    Didn’t we ever get to the bottom of how someone who was supposedly a Brexiteer managed to do such a handbrake turn in such a short space of time?
    No one had thought of her as a Brexiteer, until she suddenly said she was.

    I guess that supporting Brexit was just a momentary aberration.
    To be fair, she actually wrote quite a good article on why we should Leave before she reversed course. IIRC, she didn't like the Turkey poster and felt Leave was playing to baser instincts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Out of interest would it actually be likely to be in a position to have a GE within 2 weeks of a VONC? I'm no GE expert but it doesn't seem like very long.

    No. You have the FTPA to get through first, (Corbyn gets to try to form a government which commands the confidence of the house) then if that hurdle is crossed you have 25 working days between the dissolution and the election.
This discussion has been closed.