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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Would or Wouldn’t be hit?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    edited July 2018
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited July 2018
    His base is not that important. By definition they are his base, to state the obvious.
    It is the impact on Independents and Trump sceptical Republicans which matters.
    I remain to be contradicted, but I can't see his fawning and deeply suspicious performance yesterday gaining any new admirers.
    The polling suggests Russia is considerably less popular than the EU and NATO.
    The "We were always at war with Eastasia" crowd will love it of course.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    https://twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
    There will be plenty of opportunities to bring down this government, I don't see what the big deal is.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    How bad will tonight's poll be for Con? :D
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    kle4 said:

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
    There will be plenty of opportunities to bring down this government, I don't see what the big deal is.
    Priorities and the lack of the killer instinct.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    GIN1138 said:

    How bad will tonight's poll be for Con? :D

    Very.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
    There will be plenty of opportunities to bring down this government, I don't see what the big deal is.
    Priorities and the lack of the killer instinct.
    The priority would be they believe Brexit is very important, and they know there will be other chances to bring down the government.
    GIN1138 said:

    How bad will tonight's poll be for Con? :D

    How could it be bad, the government has sided with the harder leavers again surely? That's what was reported, so if that was the only issue the polling should be better.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    kle4 said:

    Speaking of coming to get people, the knives are out for the Labour Leavers who voted with the government today:
    https://twitter.com/owenjones84/status/1019282500978401280?s=21

    As you all know, I'm a Labour Leaver. But an opportunity to bring down a Tory government is far, far more important than dancing on pin heads over the minutiae on a Brexit deal that will probably never be enacted. These four got their priorities way wrong.
    There will be plenty of opportunities to bring down this government, I don't see what the big deal is.
    Indeed. This government deserves to be left dangling. It can own the results of calling Article 50 with no need, calling a speculative and unneeded GE for pure Party political purposes, unnecessary red line drawing, and being unable to negotiate a position amongst itself.
    It needs to see the process through to either a bitter and painful end, or a muddled messy compromise which pleases nobody.
    It has thoroughly earned the right to continue.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    Times poll taking a while to appear?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    GIN1138 said:

    How bad will tonight's poll be for Con? :D

    Probably not very.

    I predict Lab & Tories will be tied.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Brandon Lewis has apologised to Jo Swinson. Sounds like it was a cock up by the Tory Whips.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    justin124 said:

    Brandon Lewis has apologised to Jo Swinson. Sounds like it was a cock up by the Tory Whips.

    Moo. Splat.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2018
    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How bad will tonight's poll be for Con? :D

    Probably not very.

    I predict Lab & Tories will be tied.
    The counter-jinx worked!

    A YouGov poll for The Times puts Labour on 41 per cent, up two points from last week, with the Tories on 36 per cent, down one point.

    The Lib Dems are on 9 per cent, down one point and Ukip on 7 per cent, up one point.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0114f3e2-8a04-11e8-a0fd-e428ecc3ac12
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    How are services handled in this agreement?
    Or is it majority cars, to suit Germany?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    justin124 said:

    Brandon Lewis has apologised to Jo Swinson. Sounds like it was a cock up by the Tory Whips.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1019326263956267009
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited July 2018
    How long before UKIP are back in third place? :D
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:
    The real problem with this is the nutters in the Labour Party will be saying "Anti semitism it is a vote winner." The sad thing is they are correct in their voter base.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Scott_P said:
    Regardless of what your personal opinion is, this poll makes just about anything impossible. If the Tories tack towards soft/cancel Brexit - they risk losing votes they can't afford to lose to UKIP. If Labour does the same the risk is firming up the Tory vote. But both parties risk losing remainers if they don't.

    Does anyone have any idea what happens next?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    How are services handled in this agreement?
    Or is it majority cars, to suit Germany?
    'Cos of course Japan doesn't make any cars...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Scott_P said:
    Regardless of what your personal opinion is, this poll makes just about anything impossible. If the Tories tack towards soft/cancel Brexit - they risk losing votes they can't afford to lose to UKIP. If Labour does the same the risk is firming up the Tory vote. But both parties risk losing remainers if they don't.

    Does anyone have any idea what happens next?
    The Lib Dem’s stay at home and lose their chance to capitalise. So bad, you couldn’t make it up.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited July 2018

    Scott_P said:
    Regardless of what your personal opinion is, this poll makes just about anything impossible. If the Tories tack towards soft/cancel Brexit - they risk losing votes they can't afford to lose to UKIP. If Labour does the same the risk is firming up the Tory vote. But both parties risk losing remainers if they don't.

    Does anyone have any idea what happens next?
    Summer recess though the EU is concerned about lost EU jobs on a hard Brexit and are looking at amending the Irish border wording to make a deal easier
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited July 2018
    Scott_P said:
    UKIP now polling at the same percentage the LDs got at the last general election and higher than they have got in any general election bar 2015, in short a quicker revival than Lazarus in just a fortnight as a result of May's proposed Brexit deal with the EU
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2018
    41% is the highest Labour score with YouGov since 5 April. A rogue, or a sign that the Tories are losing some votes to Labour now as well as to UKIP?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Yes, I suspect that it is the infamous chlorinated chicken being brought in by the back door, and similar little sweetheart deals.

    Is this what Tories want to be known for?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Silly season polls are silly. You’d be well advised not to bet on them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Danny565 said:

    41% is the highest Labour score with YouGov since 5 April. A rogue, or a sign that the Tories are losing some votes to Labour now as well as to UKIP?

    No - losing to UKIP
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Scott_P said:
    Regardless of what your personal opinion is, this poll makes just about anything impossible. If the Tories tack towards soft/cancel Brexit - they risk losing votes they can't afford to lose to UKIP. If Labour does the same the risk is firming up the Tory vote. But both parties risk losing remainers if they don't.

    Does anyone have any idea what happens next?
    Summer recess though the EU is concerned about lost EU jobs on a hard Brexit and are looking at amending the Irish border wording to make a deal easier
    It does seem astonishing that in order to control Parliament, May is planning to not have it meet. Not so much Henry VIII as Charles I.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How bad will tonight's poll be for Con? :D

    Probably not very.

    I predict Lab & Tories will be tied.
    The counter-jinx worked!

    A YouGov poll for The Times puts Labour on 41 per cent, up two points from last week, with the Tories on 36 per cent, down one point.

    The Lib Dems are on 9 per cent, down one point and Ukip on 7 per cent, up one point.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0114f3e2-8a04-11e8-a0fd-e428ecc3ac12
    things wont get better for tories until brexit is resolved and a change of leader happens
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Trump's base will not care less about whether he has been too close to Putin or not.

    Independents though may, which might also have influenced Trump's walk back on his earlier comments in Helsinki today
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    The thing I find interesting about this — apart from noting the country is split straight down the middle both on whether or not to Leave, and whether or not to have a referendum — is the desire of Leavers for a no Deal exit.

    A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.

    What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited July 2018
    Danny565 said:

    41% is the highest Labour score with YouGov since 5 April. A rogue, or a sign that the Tories are losing some votes to Labour now as well as to UKIP?

    No, as if UKIP were back to 2017 levels on 2% and 5% of their 7% total went back to the Tories, the Tories would be tied with Labour on 41% each
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited July 2018

    The thing I find interesting about this — apart from noting the country is split straight down the middle both on whether or not to Leave, and whether or not to have a referendum — is the desire of Leavers for a no Deal exit.

    A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.

    What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
    They still believe the propaganda that No Deal won't be so bad...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    Why would any trade partner grant a deal 100% tailored to us? We are more likely to be forced to accept whatever suits them; such as a TTIP2 with the US,
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Jonathan said:

    Silly season polls are silly. You’d be well advised not to bet on them.

    I agree.

    See where we are in the Autumn and the state of play. I expect TM to get a deal now and a transitition and hopefully the Country can breathe a sigh of relief
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    The thing I find interesting about this — apart from noting the country is split straight down the middle both on whether or not to Leave, and whether or not to have a referendum — is the desire of Leavers for a no Deal exit.

    A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.

    What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
    They still believe the propaganda that No Deal won't be so bad...
    Not going to happen
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    The government won't have negotiated an FTA with the EU by 21/01/19, even in the best of circumstances. This amendment would therefore require us to remain part of the Customs Union, from then on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    kjohnw said:

    Danny565 said:

    Danny565 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How bad will tonight's poll be for Con? :D

    Probably not very.

    I predict Lab & Tories will be tied.
    The counter-jinx worked!

    A YouGov poll for The Times puts Labour on 41 per cent, up two points from last week, with the Tories on 36 per cent, down one point.

    The Lib Dems are on 9 per cent, down one point and Ukip on 7 per cent, up one point.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0114f3e2-8a04-11e8-a0fd-e428ecc3ac12
    things wont get better for tories until brexit is resolved and a change of leader happens
    Though of course that is not a one way bet. Both those things may well make things worse for the Tories.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    The thing I find interesting about this — apart from noting the country is split straight down the middle both on whether or not to Leave, and whether or not to have a referendum — is the desire of Leavers for a no Deal exit.

    A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.

    What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
    They still believe the propaganda that No Deal won't be so bad...
    Not going to happen
    Then based on that poll, remaining beats leaving with a deal by a country mile.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Regardless of what your personal opinion is, this poll makes just about anything impossible. If the Tories tack towards soft/cancel Brexit - they risk losing votes they can't afford to lose to UKIP. If Labour does the same the risk is firming up the Tory vote. But both parties risk losing remainers if they don't.

    Does anyone have any idea what happens next?
    Summer recess though the EU is concerned about lost EU jobs on a hard Brexit and are looking at amending the Irish border wording to make a deal easier
    It does seem astonishing that in order to control Parliament, May is planning to not have it meet. Not so much Henry VIII as Charles I.
    The summer recess starts next tuesday until september but of course government continues during recess
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    A fairly simple way for Leavers to deal with that AV poll on Brexit, just add options for staying in the EU outside the Euro, staying in the EU but joining the Euro and Schengen or leaving the EU but staying in the single market and customs union. That should split the Remain vote a bit
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    Why would any trade partner grant a deal 100% tailored to us? We are more likely to be forced to accept whatever suits them; such as a TTIP2 with the US,
    My personal view is that the main economic players the EU, USA, China will never do deals in the future and their ability to do deals with smaller nations will diminish.
    Why would a smaller nation do a deal with the EU when it means we will not take your agriculture but Germany is going to muller you.
    The future of free trade is between medium and smaller countries that believe in free trade.
  • LordOfReasonLordOfReason Posts: 457

    On topic. Trump is correcting his misspoking?

    “When I said the whores in the hotel were very good, it was the halls I was speaking about. Very, very... very fine halls.”
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Regardless of what your personal opinion is, this poll makes just about anything impossible. If the Tories tack towards soft/cancel Brexit - they risk losing votes they can't afford to lose to UKIP. If Labour does the same the risk is firming up the Tory vote. But both parties risk losing remainers if they don't.

    Does anyone have any idea what happens next?
    Summer recess though the EU is concerned about lost EU jobs on a hard Brexit and are looking at amending the Irish border wording to make a deal easier
    It does seem astonishing that in order to control Parliament, May is planning to not have it meet. Not so much Henry VIII as Charles I.
    The summer recess starts next tuesday until september but of course government continues during recess
    As it did for Charles I, until he was forced to recall Parliament for the Short Parliament.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:
    UKIP now polling at the same percentage the LDs got at the last general election and higher than they have got in any general election bar 2015, in short a quicker revival than Lazarus in just a fortnight as a result of May's proposed Brexit deal with the EU
    Go on Boris, you know you want to.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I warned on Saturday about taking these polls too seriously, but I don’t think it’s silly season yet. Kids are not on their summer holidays yet, and Parliament has yet to break up.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    That’s an interesting poll. Key points:

    The Tories’ best chance to win the next election is to accept and embrace being the Party of Brexit.

    The public doesn’t want a second referendum, but appears likely to vote Remain if there is one. That’s a real conundrum for Remainers - would a 5 point lead be enough when the hue and cry of betrayal is in full flow?

    Labour’s current strategy is perfect. A second referendum would however require a totally new strategy.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:
    Trump supporters don’t listen to media that exists outside of the right wing media ecosystem.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    The government won't have negotiated an FTA with the EU by 21/01/19, even in the best of circumstances. This amendment would therefore require us to remain part of the Customs Union, from then on.
    That was a different ammendment wasn't it?

    The Customs Union vote was won by 3 votes, not 40.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    RoyalBlue said:

    That’s an interesting poll. Key points:

    The Tories’ best chance to win the next election is to accept and embrace being the Party of Brexit.

    The public doesn’t want a second referendum, but appears likely to vote Remain if there is one. That’s a real conundrum for Remainers - would a 5 point lead be enough when the hue and cry of betrayal is in full flow?

    Labour’s current strategy is perfect. A second referendum would however require a totally new strategy.

    The problem for Brexiteers is that there is almost no support for a Brexit deal. Brexit has been polarised around Remain or No Deal, and No Deal will be harder and harder to defend as the weeks tick by.

    You're heading for a crushing loss in a second referendum of far more than 5 points.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Average of 6 polls conducted exclusively since the Chequers Deal.
    Con 37.2%
    Lab 40.2%
    LD 9.8%
    UKIP 6.4%"
    Green 3.0"

    Which Baxterised equals
    Lab 295
    Con 272
    SNP 42
    LD 19
    NI 18
    PC 3
    Grn 1

    " UKIP and Green no separate figures on Survation polls.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 said:

    41% is the highest Labour score with YouGov since 5 April. A rogue, or a sign that the Tories are losing some votes to Labour now as well as to UKIP?

    No, as if UKIP were back to 2017 levels on 2% and 5% of their 7% total went back to the Tories, the Tories would be tied with Labour on 41% each
    I don't think that logic works. It's very unlikely that the rise in the UKIP vote comes exclusively from people shifting from the Conservatives. Labour gaining exasperated remainers from the Tories while losing leavers to UKIP must be a part of the explanation.

    But unless UKIP gets its branches back into shape, I don't see how they can take much advantage of their new popularity. So I'd say despite appearances the stalemate between the two big parties in the popular vote is probably still holding.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited July 2018

    The thing I find interesting about this — apart from noting the country is split straight down the middle both on whether or not to Leave, and whether or not to have a referendum — is the desire of Leavers for a no Deal exit.

    A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.

    What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
    They still believe the propaganda that No Deal won't be so bad...
    There has been a systemic failure in the media, most notably on the BBC.

    When was Davis ever asked why negotiations were not concluded as easily as he promised?

    When has Boris been asked where the Brexit dividend is given that official government statistics show that Brexit is already costing us millions in lost growth?

    When has Fox ever been asked why he has failed to make any progress at all, while the EU pursues trade agreements with Canada and Japan?

    When has May been asked whether triggering A50 without a coherent plan made any sense whatsoever?

    They have all been given very easy rides, and Remainer media such as Faisal has focused too much on being scandalised by the latest government collapse and not enough on holding to account.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    HYUFD said:

    A fairly simple way for Leavers to deal with that AV poll on Brexit, just add options for staying in the EU outside the Euro, staying in the EU but joining the Euro and Schengen or leaving the EU but staying in the single market and customs union. That should split the Remain vote a bit
    There are lots of permutations. Leave with a deal, but what sort of deal? Leave without a deal, but is it an orderly Leave or not? Remain on current terms, or Remain and be nailed down?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_P said:
    Regardless of what your personal opinion is, this poll makes just about anything impossible. If the Tories tack towards soft/cancel Brexit - they risk losing votes they can't afford to lose to UKIP. If Labour does the same the risk is firming up the Tory vote. But both parties risk losing remainers if they don't.

    Does anyone have any idea what happens next?
    Summer recess though the EU is concerned about lost EU jobs on a hard Brexit and are looking at amending the Irish border wording to make a deal easier
    It does seem astonishing that in order to control Parliament, May is planning to not have it meet. Not so much Henry VIII as Charles I.
    The summer recess starts next tuesday until september but of course government continues during recess
    As it did for Charles I, until he was forced to recall Parliament for the Short Parliament.

    Time marches on don't you know
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited July 2018

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    I was trying to think of a product that is highly protected by the EU, which the UK doesn't produce. This could then be used for the sort of leverage you refer to. There is one - oranges. Unfortunately most non-EU producers of oranges are not very powerful or interesting in trade terms, although it could be helpful to a number of not very wealthy countries.The exception, of course, is the US, but a trade deal with that country is unlikely for reasons other than oranges.

    For everything else, the UK is better off trying to retain as much as possible of the deals it already had through the EU.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I warned on Saturday about taking these polls too seriously, but I don’t think it’s silly season yet. Kids are not on their summer holidays yet, and Parliament has yet to break up.

    there are degrees of silliness aren't there?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    edited July 2018

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    Why would any country in their right mind concede a deal "100% tailored to us?"

    EDIT: See Ian B2 has asked the very same....
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    RoyalBlue said:

    That’s an interesting poll. Key points:

    The Tories’ best chance to win the next election is to accept and embrace being the Party of Brexit.

    The public doesn’t want a second referendum, but appears likely to vote Remain if there is one. That’s a real conundrum for Remainers - would a 5 point lead be enough when the hue and cry of betrayal is in full flow?

    Labour’s current strategy is perfect. A second referendum would however require a totally new strategy.

    The problem for Brexiteers is that there is almost no support for a Brexit deal. Brexit has been polarised around Remain or No Deal, and No Deal will be harder and harder to defend as the weeks tick by.

    You're heading for a crushing loss in a second referendum of far more than 5 points.
    If it happens I would suggest that "betrayal" might feature
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    The thing I find interesting about this — apart from noting the country is split straight down the middle both on whether or not to Leave, and whether or not to have a referendum — is the desire of Leavers for a no Deal exit.

    A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.

    What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
    They still believe the propaganda that No Deal won't be so bad...
    There has been a systemic failure in the media, most notably on the BBC.

    When was Davis ever asked why negotiations were not concluded as easily as he promised?

    When has Boris been asked where the Brexit dividend is given that official government statistics show that Brexit is already costing us millions in lost growth?

    When has Fox ever been asked why he has failed to make any progress at all, while the EU pursues trade agreements with Canada and Japan?

    When has May been asked whether triggering A50 without a coherent plan made any sense whatsoever?

    They have all been given very easy rides, and Remainer media such as Faisal has focused too much on being scandalised by the latest government collapse and not enough on holding to account.
    Most of the outrage has focused upon the initial Referendum result.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    Why would any country in their right mind concede a deal "100% tailored to us?"
    Yes - that seems somewhat optimistic
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    4h4 hours ago

    Germany, Allensbach poll:

    CDU/CSU-EPP: 31% (-2)
    SPD-S&D: 20% (-1)
    AfD-EFDD: 15% (+2)
    GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12% (+1)
    LINKE-LEFT: 9% (-1)
    FDP-ALDE: 9% (-1)

    Field work: 01/07/18 – 12/07/18
    Sample size: 1,295"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,922

    I warned on Saturday about taking these polls too seriously, but I don’t think it’s silly season yet. Kids are not on their summer holidays yet, and Parliament has yet to break up.

    there are degrees of silliness aren't there?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dVI5ZOT5QEM
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    Why would any country in their right mind concede a deal "100% tailored to us?"
    Because there is not 27 other parties around the table, where we get
    3.57%,
    When it is just us and them we get 100% of what we want because the only input is ours. It does not mean the other side capitulates, it just means there in no compromise in our position because we have so called allies on our side.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    edited July 2018

    RoyalBlue said:

    That’s an interesting poll. Key points:

    The Tories’ best chance to win the next election is to accept and embrace being the Party of Brexit.

    The public doesn’t want a second referendum, but appears likely to vote Remain if there is one. That’s a real conundrum for Remainers - would a 5 point lead be enough when the hue and cry of betrayal is in full flow?

    Labour’s current strategy is perfect. A second referendum would however require a totally new strategy.

    The problem for Brexiteers is that there is almost no support for a Brexit deal. Brexit has been polarised around Remain or No Deal, and No Deal will be harder and harder to defend as the weeks tick by.

    You're heading for a crushing loss in a second referendum of far more than 5 points.
    If it happens I would suggest that "betrayal" might feature
    Yes, the Hard Brexiteers will be crying that the public have betrayed them, and it all would have worked out fine if only we had held our nerve...
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    A fairly simple way for Leavers to deal with that AV poll on Brexit, just add options for staying in the EU outside the Euro, staying in the EU but joining the Euro and Schengen or leaving the EU but staying in the single market and customs union. That should split the Remain vote a bit
    There are lots of permutations. Leave with a deal, but what sort of deal? Leave without a deal, but is it an orderly Leave or not? Remain on current terms, or Remain and be nailed down?
    Perhaps we need at least six choices on the ballot. Remain on current terms may not be an option - our rebate might go for a start and more. We don't know what the deal might be but we don't know what remain will mean either. The EU might well wish to extract their pound of flesh.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    I was trying to think of a product that is highly protected by the EU, which the UK doesn't produce. This could then be used for the sort of leverage you refer to. There is one - oranges. Unfortunately most non-EU producers of oranges are not very powerful or interesting in trade terms, although it could be helpful to a number of not very wealthy countries.The exception, of course, is the US, but a trade deal with that country is unlikely for reasons other than oranges.

    For everything else, the UK is better off trying to retain as much as possible of the deals it already had through the EU.
    As I understand it EU tarrifs on Oranges are seasonal, and already being reduced, and are at zero for the 3 countries that export most to the EU (Morrocco, Tunisia and South Africa). This is quite a long Twitter thread, but Jim Cornelius does cite chapter and verse very well:


    https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1019199921713483776?s=19
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    edited July 2018

    RoyalBlue said:

    That’s an interesting poll. Key points:

    The Tories’ best chance to win the next election is to accept and embrace being the Party of Brexit.

    The public doesn’t want a second referendum, but appears likely to vote Remain if there is one. That’s a real conundrum for Remainers - would a 5 point lead be enough when the hue and cry of betrayal is in full flow?

    Labour’s current strategy is perfect. A second referendum would however require a totally new strategy.

    The problem for Brexiteers is that there is almost no support for a Brexit deal. Brexit has been polarised around Remain or No Deal, and No Deal will be harder and harder to defend as the weeks tick by.

    You're heading for a crushing loss in a second referendum of far more than 5 points.
    Get 10 Brexiteers in a room, ask them what shape or form of Brexit they want to see and you would probably get 10 different answers. Do the same with Remainers and the core belief would be the same with probably some talk about trying to claw back some powers.

    The problem is they just can't agree on what type of Brexit and I think the general public (hence why there seems to be some increasing support for Remain/talk of another referendum) is noticing that and they don't like all this bickering and uncertainty.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    It's still curious that the Lib Dems are going nowhere in polling.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    The thing I find interesting about this — apart from noting the country is split straight down the middle both on whether or not to Leave, and whether or not to have a referendum — is the desire of Leavers for a no Deal exit.

    A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.

    What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
    They still believe the propaganda that No Deal won't be so bad...
    There has been a systemic failure in the media, most notably on the BBC.

    When was Davis ever asked why negotiations were not concluded as easily as he promised?

    When has Boris been asked where the Brexit dividend is given that official government statistics show that Brexit is already costing us millions in lost growth?

    When has Fox ever been asked why he has failed to make any progress at all, while the EU pursues trade agreements with Canada and Japan?

    When has May been asked whether triggering A50 without a coherent plan made any sense whatsoever?

    They have all been given very easy rides, and Remainer media such as Faisal has focused too much on being scandalised by the latest government collapse and not enough on holding to account.
    "official government statistics show that Brexit is already costing us millions in lost growth" - interpretation of what data "shows" (i.e. proves) what you suggests it does, either as vaguely as you suggest or, you having your finger on the pulse, perhaps more specifically timed and calculated. You should rename yourself Sleepwalker.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    I was trying to think of a product that is highly protected by the EU, which the UK doesn't produce. This could then be used for the sort of leverage you refer to. There is one - oranges. Unfortunately most non-EU producers of oranges are not very powerful or interesting in trade terms, although it could be helpful to a number of not very wealthy countries.The exception, of course, is the US, but a trade deal with that country is unlikely for reasons other than oranges.

    For everything else, the UK is better off trying to retain as much as possible of the deals it already had through the EU.
    Products highly protected by the EU are all food products, all textiles, all services.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    I reverse my previous opinion about Mike’s bet on Trump not being the nominee next time around. The about face, “I misspoke”, is not just ridiculous, it’s weak - and that is the one thing he cannot get away with.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/17/trump-putin-criticism-reaction-725975

    Had he brazened it out, he might just have got away with it...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Sean_F said:

    It's still curious that the Lib Dems are going nowhere in polling.

    No it isn't. They are a joke of a party led by a man well past his sell-by. And you can't trust them an inch.

    Night all.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Sean_F said:

    The thing I find interesting about this — apart from noting the country is split straight down the middle both on whether or not to Leave, and whether or not to have a referendum — is the desire of Leavers for a no Deal exit.

    A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.

    What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
    They still believe the propaganda that No Deal won't be so bad...
    There has been a systemic failure in the media, most notably on the BBC.

    When was Davis ever asked why negotiations were not concluded as easily as he promised?

    When has Boris been asked where the Brexit dividend is given that official government statistics show that Brexit is already costing us millions in lost growth?

    When has Fox ever been asked why he has failed to make any progress at all, while the EU pursues trade agreements with Canada and Japan?

    When has May been asked whether triggering A50 without a coherent plan made any sense whatsoever?

    They have all been given very easy rides, and Remainer media such as Faisal has focused too much on being scandalised by the latest government collapse and not enough on holding to account.
    Most of the outrage has focused upon the initial Referendum result.
    Indeed. That has been the failure. The Establishment media has simply been outraged at losing, and totally neglected to ask pointed questions of the winners,
    Not fit for purpose.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    Why would any country in their right mind concede a deal "100% tailored to us?"
    Because there is not 27 other parties around the table, where we get
    3.57%,
    When it is just us and them we get 100% of what we want because the only input is ours. It does not mean the other side capitulates, it just means there in no compromise in our position because we have so called allies on our side.
    It's the other way round. 27 countries make the deal more interesting to the counterparty who is prepared to make a bigger compromise to get the deal. In general that's why parties go into consortium. It boosts their negotiating power.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    I was trying to think of a product that is highly protected by the EU, which the UK doesn't produce. This could then be used for the sort of leverage you refer to. There is one - oranges. Unfortunately most non-EU producers of oranges are not very powerful or interesting in trade terms, although it could be helpful to a number of not very wealthy countries.The exception, of course, is the US, but a trade deal with that country is unlikely for reasons other than oranges.

    For everything else, the UK is better off trying to retain as much as possible of the deals it already had through the EU.
    As I understand it EU tarrifs on Oranges are seasonal, and already being reduced, and are at zero for the 3 countries that export most to the EU (Morrocco, Tunisia and South Africa). This is quite a long Twitter thread, but Jim Cornelius does cite chapter and verse very well:


    https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1019199921713483776?s=19
    EU tariffs on Oranges are only Zero for as long as the Orange crop in EUland can not be harvested. Otherwise it is 16.5%.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Sean_F said:

    It's still curious that the Lib Dems are going nowhere in polling.

    When their own leader is missing votes like yesterday’s it really isn’t. The LDs under Cable are ridiculous.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    Why would any country in their right mind concede a deal "100% tailored to us?"
    Because there is not 27 other parties around the table, where we get
    3.57%,
    When it is just us and them we get 100% of what we want because the only input is ours. It does not mean the other side capitulates, it just means there in no compromise in our position because we have so called allies on our side.
    Ah. I see what you mean now.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Sean_F said:

    It's still curious that the Lib Dems are going nowhere in polling.

    They died years ago. Seriously it’s over. How can the anti Tory vote - which sustained them for years - trust them ?

    They can’t even be bothered to turn out on Brexit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    jonny83 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    That’s an interesting poll. Key points:

    The Tories’ best chance to win the next election is to accept and embrace being the Party of Brexit.

    The public doesn’t want a second referendum, but appears likely to vote Remain if there is one. That’s a real conundrum for Remainers - would a 5 point lead be enough when the hue and cry of betrayal is in full flow?

    Labour’s current strategy is perfect. A second referendum would however require a totally new strategy.

    The problem for Brexiteers is that there is almost no support for a Brexit deal. Brexit has been polarised around Remain or No Deal, and No Deal will be harder and harder to defend as the weeks tick by.

    You're heading for a crushing loss in a second referendum of far more than 5 points.
    Get 10 Brexiteers in a room, ask them what shape or form of Brexit they want to see and you would probably get 10 different answers. Do the same with Remainers and the core belief would be the same with probably some talk about trying to claw back some powers.

    The problem is they just can't agree on what type of Brexit and I think the general public (hence why there seems to be some increasing support for Remain/talk of another referendum) is noticing that and they don't like all this bickering and uncertainty.
    The Remainers would talk about clawing back powers, without having the slightest intention of doing so. Which is why we are where we are.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    I was trying to think of a product that is highly protected by the EU, which the UK doesn't produce. This could then be used for the sort of leverage you refer to. There is one - oranges. Unfortunately most non-EU producers of oranges are not very powerful or interesting in trade terms, although it could be helpful to a number of not very wealthy countries.The exception, of course, is the US, but a trade deal with that country is unlikely for reasons other than oranges.

    For everything else, the UK is better off trying to retain as much as possible of the deals it already had through the EU.
    As I understand it EU tarrifs on Oranges are seasonal, and already being reduced, and are at zero for the 3 countries that export most to the EU (Morrocco, Tunisia and South Africa). This is quite a long Twitter thread, but Jim Cornelius does cite chapter and verse very well:


    https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1019199921713483776?s=19
    EU tariffs on Oranges are only Zero for as long as the Orange crop in EUland can not be harvested. Otherwise it is 16.5%.
    Only for countries subject to WTO MFN tariffs which doesn't include the major orange exporters to the EU.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    Why would any country in their right mind concede a deal "100% tailored to us?"
    Because there is not 27 other parties around the table, where we get
    3.57%,
    When it is just us and them we get 100% of what we want because the only input is ours. It does not mean the other side capitulates, it just means there in no compromise in our position because we have so called allies on our side.
    It's the other way round. 27 countries make the deal more interesting to the counterparty who is prepared to make a bigger compromise to get the deal. In general that's why parties go into consortium. It boosts their negotiating power.
    We are services exporter, point me to the EU trade deal where services has been a priority?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    dixiedean said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    Why would any country in their right mind concede a deal "100% tailored to us?"

    EDIT: See Ian B2 has asked the very same....
    Not heard of a conceded deal before but might it not be also 100% tailored to them. You might not like the suit but that doesn't automatically make it untailored
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    dixiedean said:

    Sean_F said:

    The thing I find interesting about this — apart from noting the country is split straight down the middle both on whether or not to Leave, and whether or not to have a referendum — is the desire of Leavers for a no Deal exit.

    A full 2/3 of Leavers simply want to crash out into some form of North Korean autarchy.

    What a pack of fucking nut cakes. And yet they seem to have control of the steering wheel.
    They still believe the propaganda that No Deal won't be so bad...
    There has been a systemic failure in the media, most notably on the BBC.

    When was Davis ever asked why negotiations were not concluded as easily as he promised?

    When has Boris been asked where the Brexit dividend is given that official government statistics show that Brexit is already costing us millions in lost growth?

    When has Fox ever been asked why he has failed to make any progress at all, while the EU pursues trade agreements with Canada and Japan?

    When has May been asked whether triggering A50 without a coherent plan made any sense whatsoever?

    They have all been given very easy rides, and Remainer media such as Faisal has focused too much on being scandalised by the latest government collapse and not enough on holding to account.
    Most of the outrage has focused upon the initial Referendum result.
    Indeed. That has been the failure. The Establishment media has simply been outraged at losing, and totally neglected to ask pointed questions of the winners,
    Not fit for purpose.
    +1. It’s the same with the Tories drift to the right and Labour’s drift to the left. One of the biggest things holding back these centrists is that they seem to think that they are owed positions of power/influence. When they aren’t the influencers, it’s all outrage.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    I was trying to think of a product that is highly protected by the EU, which the UK doesn't produce. This could then be used for the sort of leverage you refer to. There is one - oranges. Unfortunately most non-EU producers of oranges are not very powerful or interesting in trade terms, although it could be helpful to a number of not very wealthy countries.The exception, of course, is the US, but a trade deal with that country is unlikely for reasons other than oranges.

    For everything else, the UK is better off trying to retain as much as possible of the deals it already had through the EU.
    As I understand it EU tarrifs on Oranges are seasonal, and already being reduced, and are at zero for the 3 countries that export most to the EU (Morrocco, Tunisia and South Africa). This is quite a long Twitter thread, but Jim Cornelius does cite chapter and verse very well:


    https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1019199921713483776?s=19
    EU tariffs on Oranges are only Zero for as long as the Orange crop in EUland can not be harvested. Otherwise it is 16.5%.
    That doesnt seem to be accurate:

    https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1019207220657938432?s=19
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004

    Sean_F said:

    It's still curious that the Lib Dems are going nowhere in polling.

    When their own leader is missing votes like yesterday’s it really isn’t. The LDs under Cable are ridiculous.
    There does seem to be a lot of inter party warfare over Brexit and we have not even talked about labour's Jewish problem
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    Simple we get a deal tailored 100% to us. We are different from the rest of the EU we are very good in services, do not really care about agriculture as we import a lot.
    So the EU deal is always we will not take your agricultural produce or in limited quantities and we do not care about services.
    A UK only agreement would be will will take your agriculture but you take our services.
    I was trying to think of a product that is highly protected by the EU, which the UK doesn't produce. This could then be used for the sort of leverage you refer to. There is one - oranges. Unfortunately most non-EU producers of oranges are not very powerful or interesting in trade terms, although it could be helpful to a number of not very wealthy countries.The exception, of course, is the US, but a trade deal with that country is unlikely for reasons other than oranges.

    For everything else, the UK is better off trying to retain as much as possible of the deals it already had through the EU.
    Products highly protected by the EU are all food products, all textiles, all services.
    Products that the UK also produces and which the government will also want to protect, unless it wants the powerful farming lobby to go ballistic . Clue: it doesn't. Anyway, right or wrong, the UK had chosen its side on this issue with EU quota allocation. It is not offering to relax quotas.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Excellent news from the far East for our exporters:

    Twitter.com/MalmstromEU/status/1018851897627807744?s=19

    Foot. Aim. Shoot.
    I am just catching up since coming back from the World Cup, but I am a little puzzled as to why our Parliament appears to have voted to have future Trade Deals* ratified without being told of their contents.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1019319704937287681?s=19
    I am still trying to understand why we are walking away from trade deals with Japan and Australia so that we can negotiate trade deals with Japan and Australia.

    I am waiting for the Leavers to explain how a market for 60million people will get a better deal than a market for 400 million people

    As for the govts position, as pointed out in the tweets, I suspect that the reason is that they want the ability to sign any old rubbish without anyone finding out how bad it is because they need to be able to claim that Brexit is a success even when it is not
    I was trying to think of a product that is highly protected by the EU, which the UK doesn't produce. This could then be used for the sort of leverage you refer to. There is one - oranges. Unfortunately most non-EU producers of oranges are not very powerful or interesting in trade terms, although it could be helpful to a number of not very wealthy countries.The exception, of course, is the US, but a trade deal with that country is unlikely for reasons other than oranges.

    For everything else, the UK is better off trying to retain as much as possible of the deals it already had through the EU.
    s I understand it EU tarrifs o


    https://twitter.com/Jim_Cornelius/status/1019199921713483776?s=19
    EU tariffs on Oranges are only Zero for as long as the Orange crop in EUland can not be harvested. Otherwise it is 16.5%.
    Only for countries subject to WTO MFN tariffs which doesn't include the major orange exporters to the EU.
    Is South Africa a major orange exporter?

    https://www.tralac.org/discussions/article/12282-south-african-citrus-exports-under-the-sadc-eu-epa.html

    "Between 1 June and 15 October South African sweet oranges enter the EU market duty free"

    When you know what you are talking about.
This discussion has been closed.