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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

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  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    HYUFD said:

    Fun fact.
    Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

    And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too
    Foot was a decent man who would never have countenanced the sort of anti-semitic bullying and discourse that now seems par for the course in today's Labour Party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    HYUFD said:

    Fun fact.
    Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

    And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too
    What Brexiters haven’t yet realised is that No Deal, apart from crashing the economy, *also* guarantees us Corbyn.

    I still don’t think there will be No Deal, and the most likely outcome is a Deal not a million miles away from Chequers.

    However I have underestimated the effect of ongoing damage to May and Tories of getting to Brexit - any Brexit.

    Corbyn as next PM looks better than 50% at the moment, IMO.
    Looks like it:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704?s=19

    Add in a bit of tactical voting and we are sorted.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think May's deal will at least get is a transition deal but interesting to see the potential consequences of no deal nonetheless

    I think you're the only one who believes that, and I include May in that!
    No, I believe it. I have doubts from time to time, but essentially I have faith in the willingness and ability of both sides to fudge their way to a deal, with lots of vague loose ends to be studied during the transition. May's objective is to survive. The EU's objective is not to have a crisis. Anyone hoping for clarity or a firm basis for British investment or trade deals or simply for the issue to go away is way too optimistic, though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    HYUFD said:

    Fun fact.
    Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

    And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too
    What Brexiters haven’t yet realised is that No Deal, apart from crashing the economy, *also* guarantees us Corbyn.

    I still don’t think there will be No Deal, and the most likely outcome is a Deal not a million miles away from Chequers.

    However I have underestimated the effect of ongoing damage to May and Tories of getting to Brexit - any Brexit.

    Corbyn as next PM looks better than 50% at the moment, IMO.
    Agreed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    HYUFD said:

    Fun fact.
    Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

    And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too
    What Brexiters haven’t yet realised is that No Deal, apart from crashing the economy, *also* guarantees us Corbyn.

    I still don’t think there will be No Deal, and the most likely outcome is a Deal not a million miles away from Chequers.

    However I have underestimated the effect of ongoing damage to May and Tories of getting to Brexit - any Brexit.

    Corbyn as next PM looks better than 50% at the moment, IMO.
    Labour winning the next election looks a strong odds-on chance to me. Jeremy Corbyn being the next Prime Minister looks a fairly remote chance now: Theresa May looks unlikely to be the one to call the next election.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    I see that:-

    1. The government is even more of a mess than it was a few days ago.
    2. The ERG are a bunch of total and utter c**ts.
    3. The opposition is now officially an institutionally anti-semitic party.
    4. The US President is still a malicious moron who is appeasing Russia.
    5. The Lib Dems are invisible.
    6. The rest of the EU are looking on in wonder and bewilderment at the UK's collective nervous breakdown.
    7. From next March - when there will be little fatty food on the shelves - Britain will be able to solve its obesity crisis and, probably, also the problem of an ageing population. To think: a crash-out Brexit could solve obesity, increasing demand by oldies on the NHS and the social care problems all at once!
    8. The North West of England - officially the wettest part of the UK - has a hose pipe ban.

    Have I missed anything important?

    The garden looks lovely?
    It looks spectacular! Far fewer slugs this year, for some reason, thank God!

    Mind you I have just planted a beech hedge on the boundary of my new garden in the Lakes so the hose pipe ban is not at all welcome. Still the new trees appear - just - to be surviving.....
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    afcone said:

    This seems to be massively complacent on food, at least in the short-term (I think the government would capitulate to EU demands almost immediately and seek EEA or extended transition). Saying 'no government would vote to starve its population with regulations' doesn't quite cut it.

    For food to be delivered from the EU to the UK, it needs to be put on lorries and get through ports. In the event of no deal - regardless of what the UK government legislates - UK lorry drivers lose the ability to drive in the EU. Similarly, ports would collapse on day 1 - just ask the Port of Dover, which has repeatedly warn this. 'We just won't enforce checks!', the Hard Brexiters say. That's irrelevant: the rest of the EU will. They have to, because under WTO rules, the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status clause in their trade deals with other states would require them to drop such checks on those other nations as well. Do you really think the UK can demand that France drops all food safety checks on Japan, Canada, Australia etc just to accommodate the UK? Not going to happen.

    The simple fact is that if we are outside the customs union and single market, the EU *has* to enforce a border, and no such infrastructure currently exists. Even if the UK decides not to enforce the border (which due to MFN clauses/WTO rules means it would have to do the same for a large number of non-EU countries - not exactly 'Taking Back Control'), our ports will jam up and importation of all goods will surely be affected.

    The simple fact is that, absent an agreement, by default we fall out of the legal framework that facilitates imports of many critical goods. I'm sure it will be portrayed by Brexiters as 'punishment' from the EU but it's no such thing - it's just that our entire infrastructure for the past decades has been built around being part of that framework, and it simply will not cope if we get a sudden stop.

    (And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

    felix said:

    Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

    Since he is unable to do so until we leave presumably you are keen on a swift exit.
    My point was it is much easier to do beneficial deals as part of the EU than it is a single much smaller economy. So exiting at all is not in the national interest. But yes the sooner we exit the sooner we can start the process of rejoining.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,052

    HYUFD said:

    Fun fact.
    Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

    And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too
    What Brexiters haven’t yet realised is that No Deal, apart from crashing the economy, *also* guarantees us Corbyn.

    I still don’t think there will be No Deal, and the most likely outcome is a Deal not a million miles away from Chequers.

    However I have underestimated the effect of ongoing damage to May and Tories of getting to Brexit - any Brexit.

    Corbyn as next PM looks better than 50% at the moment, IMO.
    Labour winning the next election looks a strong odds-on chance to me. Jeremy Corbyn being the next Prime Minister looks a fairly remote chance now: Theresa May looks unlikely to be the one to call the next election.
    It depends if a GE arrives as a planned or an unplanned event. Last night we had Tory whips threatening rebels with an early election, so it is credible that May would be handing over to Jezza.

    Indeed, doing so may well be a blessed relief to her.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He apologises like an arsehole because he doesn't mean it. And because he's an arsehole.

    I do wonder if he thinks he's so smart only he can notice he doesn't mean it, or if he doesn't care so long as it's enough to forestall legal action.
    Elon Musk apologygate is not about avoiding legal action. Suppose the diver sued for libel and won -- any damages would be pocket change for Musk.

    Musk's problem and the reason he is apologising at all is that his financial backers and investors in Tesla are threatening to oust him if he does not stop insulting journalists, bankers, businesses and yes, even divers, on Twitter. This is just the latest in a long series of Musk rants. He is the Donald Trump of business. Now his backers are getting twitchy. They want to keep those sweet, sweet NASA contracts and government subsidies, not to mention sales.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    currystar said:
    Kind of irrelevant when no one but May seems to think it will fly anyway.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He apologises like an arsehole because he doesn't mean it. And because he's an arsehole.

    I do wonder if he thinks he's so smart only he can notice he doesn't mean it, or if he doesn't care so long as it's enough to forestall legal action.
    Elon Musk apologygate is not about avoiding legal action. Suppose the diver sued for libel and won -- any damages would be pocket change for Musk.

    Musk's problem and the reason he is apologising at all is that his financial backers and investors in Tesla are threatening to oust him if he does not stop insulting journalists, bankers, businesses and yes, even divers, on Twitter. This is just the latest in a long series of Musk rants. He is the Donald Trump of business. Now his backers are getting twitchy. They want to keep those sweet, sweet NASA contracts and government subsidies, not to mention sales.
    So it is about avoiding legal action, not as the main cost itself, but knock n effects which would hit him.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Mortimer said:

    I'm losing where we are.

    Did the Mogg amendment pass (on no separate customs arrangements for NI)?

    Yep.
    So, unless someone has some fudge of galactic proportions sufficient to massage the understanding of the word 'separate', then we are crashing out with no deal.

    (Although I seems the Lords might be able to amend this again...)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. P, it'd be the worst pair of choices since the Macedonians had to choose between a foetus and a man with learning difficulties to succeed Alexander the Great as king.

    [As an aside, both of them ended up jointly inheriting, and ended up getting murdered].
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    AndyJS said:
    She's happy to be in the same party as him though.

    Quit, and she can vote the same as now, without supporting as pm a man she thinks is racist.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    I see that:-

    1. The government is even more of a mess than it was a few days ago.
    2. The ERG are a bunch of total and utter c**ts.
    3. The opposition is now officially an institutionally anti-semitic party.
    4. The US President is still a malicious moron who is appeasing Russia.
    5. The Lib Dems are invisible.
    6. The rest of the EU are looking on in wonder and bewilderment at the UK's collective nervous breakdown.
    7. From next March - when there will be little fatty food on the shelves - Britain will be able to solve its obesity crisis and, probably, also the problem of an ageing population. To think: a crash-out Brexit could solve obesity, increasing demand by oldies on the NHS and the social care problems all at once!
    8. The North West of England - officially the wettest part of the UK - has a hose pipe ban.

    Have I missed anything important?

    Obama made a speech in S Africa, which left you in despair at this lost world of calm, rational interpretations of the world and its problems.

    I'm not a great fan of Obama. By comparison with Trump he's amazing of course.

    But look at what he has left behind: there's an element of "apres moi le deluge" about him. His biggest failure I think is being too calm and rational. To get people on your side - and stay there - you need to appeal to the emotions as well so that they are willing to listen to what you say rationally. Obama is a great lecturer but there is a chilly distance about him I think which has, in retrospect, been a weakness. He has been very good indeed at analysing a situation but possibly less successful at effecting change - certainly on the international side. I cannot really speak about his domestic achievements.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Hoey to face deselection attempt in Vauxhall

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1019461305353277440
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Why did rebels worry about whip threats of early election? As Rentoul once again reminds us, we have FTPA:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1019486645291225088

    Surely rebels didn't think May would whip her party to vote for an early election?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Hoey to face deselection attempt in Vauxhall

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1019461305353277440

    Surprised it's taken so long.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:
    She's happy to be in the same party as him though.

    Quit, and she can vote the same as now, without supporting as pm a man she thinks is racist.
    As Dan Hodges keeps asking: when will Labour MPs actually do something instead of just tweeting each other their anger?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I still think May's deal will at least get is a transition deal but interesting to see the potential consequences of no deal nonetheless

    I think you're the only one who believes that, and I include May in that!
    No, I believe it. I have doubts from time to time, but essentially I have faith in the willingness and ability of both sides to fudge their way to a deal, with lots of vague loose ends to be studied during the transition. May's objective is to survive. The EU's objective is not to have a crisis. Anyone hoping for clarity or a firm basis for British investment or trade deals or simply for the issue to go away is way too optimistic, though.
    What would a fudge look like though? The EU has been absolutely unbending so far.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    edited July 2018
    O/T Dry spell.

    Looks like more of the same if the latest ECMWF is to be believed. Maybe a thundery breakdown at day 10 but that's way off!

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=ecm&lid=OP

    LHR rainfall stats tell their own tale: June = 0.4mm, July (to-date) = 0.0mm!

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:
    She's happy to be in the same party as him though.

    Quit, and she can vote the same as now, without supporting as pm a man she thinks is racist.
    As Dan Hodges keeps asking: when will Labour MPs actually do something instead of just tweeting each other their anger?
    They won't because:-

    1. They're feeble cowards.
    2. There is no electoral benefit to them doing so.
    3. They think it's their party and Corbyn is a temporary interloper.
    4. They intend to stay and fight.
    5. They know that if they resign the whip they will very likely end up being deselected.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    I see that:-

    1. The government is even more of a mess than it was a few days ago.
    2. The ERG are a bunch of total and utter c**ts.
    3. The opposition is now officially an institutionally anti-semitic party.
    4. The US President is still a malicious moron who is appeasing Russia.
    5. The Lib Dems are invisible.
    6. The rest of the EU are looking on in wonder and bewilderment at the UK's collective nervous breakdown.
    7. From next March - when there will be little fatty food on the shelves - Britain will be able to solve its obesity crisis and, probably, also the problem of an ageing population. To think: a crash-out Brexit could solve obesity, increasing demand by oldies on the NHS and the social care problems all at once!
    8. The North West of England - officially the wettest part of the UK - has a hose pipe ban.

    Have I missed anything important?

    Obama made a speech in S Africa, which left you in despair at this lost world of calm, rational interpretations of the world and its problems.

    I'm not a great fan of Obama. By comparison with Trump he's amazing of course.

    But look at what he has left behind: there's an element of "apres moi le deluge" about him. His biggest failure I think is being too calm and rational. To get people on your side - and stay there - you need to appeal to the emotions as well so that they are willing to listen to what you say rationally. Obama is a great lecturer but there is a chilly distance about him I think which has, in retrospect, been a weakness. He has been very good indeed at analysing a situation but possibly less successful at effecting change - certainly on the international side. I cannot really speak about his domestic achievements.
    IMO Obama was the architect of his own problems. He stood on a platform of 'hope' and 'change', and would be judged against those words. Winning the peace prize did not help, as it made him (and the award) look vacuous at the very beginning.

    The truth is that, outside of war, rational change in the US is glacial: too much of the system is set up to prevent change. Instead, we have slow evolution rather than fast revolution, and Obama stood no chance of convincing many people that he had achieved his platform.

    Irrational change, as we are seeing with Trump, is much easier.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    AndyJS said:
    Watching two members of Islington Labour Party from the 80s knock lumps off each other in public is like watching a wasp land on a stinging nettle. You know somebody is going to get very badly stung but you don't really care which one it is.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018
    murali_s said:

    O/T Dry spell.

    Looks like more of the same if the latest ECMWF is to be believed. Maybe a thundery breakdown at day 10 but that's way off!

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=ecm&lid=OP

    LHR rainfall stats tell their own tale: June = 0.4mm, July (to-date) = 0.0mm!

    Thankfully most reservoirs are still pretty full due to the heavy rain earlier in the year, which is why a hosepipe ban hasn't been announced for Southern Water for instance.

    https://www.southernwater.co.uk/reservoir-levels
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    edited July 2018
    AndyJS said:

    murali_s said:

    O/T Dry spell.

    Looks like more of the same if the latest ECMWF is to be believed. Maybe a thundery breakdown at day 10 but that's way off!

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=ecm&lid=OP

    LHR rainfall stats tell their own tale: June = 0.4mm, July (to-date) = 0.0mm!

    Thankfully most reservoirs are still pretty full due to the heavy rain earlier in the year, which is why a hosepipe ban hasn't been announced for Southern Water for instance.

    https://www.southernwater.co.uk/reservoir-levels
    I am surprised that Thirlmere has got that low that quickly. When was the last time it hit 52% capacity? Must be a very long time ago (I would guess 1976).

    https://www.unitedutilities.com/help-and-support/your-water-supply/reservoir-levels/
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    afcone said:

    This seems to be massively complacent on food, at least in the short-term (I think the government would capitulate to EU demands almost immediately and seek EEA or extended transition). Saying 'no government would vote to starve its population with regulations' doesn't quite cut it.

    For food to be delivered from the EU to the UK, it needs to be put on lorries and get through ports. In the event of no deal - regardless of what the UK government legislates - UK lorry drivers lose the ability to drive in the EU. Similarly, ports would collapse on day 1 - just ask the Port of Dover, which has repeatedly warn this. 'We just won't enforce checks!', the Hard Brexiters say. That's irrelevant: the rest of the EU will. They have to, because under WTO rules, the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status clause in their trade deals with other states would require them to drop such checks on those other nations as well. Do you really think the UK can demand that France drops all food safety checks on Japan, Canada, Australia etc just to accommodate the UK? Not going to happen.

    The simple fact is that if we are outside the customs union and single market, the EU *has* to enforce a border, and no such infrastructure currently exists. Even if the UK decides not to enforce the border (which due to MFN clauses/WTO rules means it would have to do the same for a large number of non-EU countries - not exactly 'Taking Back Control'), our ports will jam up and importation of all goods will surely be affected.

    The simple fact is that, absent an agreement, by default we fall out of the legal framework that facilitates imports of many critical goods. I'm sure it will be portrayed by Brexiters as 'punishment' from the EU but it's no such thing - it's just that our entire infrastructure for the past decades has been built around being part of that framework, and it simply will not cope if we get a sudden stop.

    (And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

    felix said:

    Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

    Since he is unable to do so until we leave presumably you are keen on a swift exit.
    My point was it is much easier to do beneficial deals as part of the EU than it is a single much smaller economy. So exiting at all is not in the national interest. But yes the sooner we exit the sooner we can start the process of rejoining.
    It took the EU 60 odd years to do a deal with Japan. Your understanding of 'easier' could do with a tweak or twom.
  • GreenHeronGreenHeron Posts: 148

    Looks way too optimistic, implying short term disruption only. The long term impact of a no deal Brexit would be immense. No international investor would touch Britain with a bargepole: they would correctly conclude that this was a country that was actively hostile to business and insanely incompetent.

    Well from my own experience in the M&A sector, the opposite has happened since the Brexit vote, which was also seen as insanely incompetent by many. Foreign interest in UK companies (SMEs at least) has increased markedly, numbers of transactions have increased, values have increased. This article from Bloomberg gives a further take on this:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/foreign-purchases-of-u-k-firms-have-soared-since-brexit-vote

    Further to this many of my clients have seen foreign opportunities open up within their own businesses since the vote in terms of new overseas custom and see this trend continuing at present.

    Whether or not this would continue in a No Deal scenario is of course unknown, but this increase in overseas interest in UK business was hardly predicted after the vote.

    Southam Observer - I realise I never answered your question several days ago on this subject, mainly because thousands of posts had been written by the time I saw your response. Hope that answers your question partially. I would add that certain sectors (manufacturing for example) are seeing this more than others and clearly the weak pound has helped.

    Also, congratulations on your recent deal. I know first hand how stressful the whole experience can be so enjoy your success that you've most certainly earned.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    I see that:-

    1. The government is even more of a mess than it was a few days ago.
    2. The ERG are a bunch of total and utter c**ts.
    3. The opposition is now officially an institutionally anti-semitic party.
    4. The US President is still a malicious moron who is appeasing Russia.
    5. The Lib Dems are invisible.
    6. The rest of the EU are looking on in wonder and bewilderment at the UK's collective nervous breakdown.
    7. From next March - when there will be little fatty food on the shelves - Britain will be able to solve its obesity crisis and, probably, also the problem of an ageing population. To think: a crash-out Brexit could solve obesity, increasing demand by oldies on the NHS and the social care problems all at once!
    8. The North West of England - officially the wettest part of the UK - has a hose pipe ban.

    Have I missed anything important?

    Obama made a speech in S Africa, which left you in despair at this lost world of calm, rational interpretations of the world and its problems.

    I'm not a great fan of Obama. By comparison with Trump he's amazing of course.

    But look at what he has left behind: there's an element of "apres moi le deluge" about him. His biggest failure I think is being too calm and rational. To get people on your side - and stay there - you need to appeal to the emotions as well so that they are willing to listen to what you say rationally. Obama is a great lecturer but there is a chilly distance about him I think which has, in retrospect, been a weakness. He has been very good indeed at analysing a situation but possibly less successful at effecting change - certainly on the international side. I cannot really speak about his domestic achievements.
    IMO Obama was the architect of his own problems. He stood on a platform of 'hope' and 'change', and would be judged against those words. Winning the peace prize did not help, as it made him (and the award) look vacuous at the very beginning.

    The truth is that, outside of war, rational change in the US is glacial: too much of the system is set up to prevent change. Instead, we have slow evolution rather than fast revolution, and Obama stood no chance of convincing many people that he had achieved his platform.

    Irrational change, as we are seeing with Trump, is much easier.
    I agree with you on the US system, but Obama achieved huge change. From healthcare to education to infrastructure investment to climate change.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited July 2018
    Politics today really is building towards a perfect storm. If it were a book, published at anytime before 2014, it would be seen as too far-fetched.

    Things will get worse before they get better. We need the Thunderstorm to break.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited July 2018
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    He apologises like an arsehole because he doesn't mean it. And because he's an arsehole.

    I do wonder if he thinks he's so smart only he can notice he doesn't mean it, or if he doesn't care so long as it's enough to forestall legal action.
    Elon Musk apologygate is not about avoiding legal action. Suppose the diver sued for libel and won -- any damages would be pocket change for Musk.

    Musk's problem and the reason he is apologising at all is that his financial backers and investors in Tesla are threatening to oust him if he does not stop insulting journalists, bankers, businesses and yes, even divers, on Twitter. This is just the latest in a long series of Musk rants. He is the Donald Trump of business. Now his backers are getting twitchy. They want to keep those sweet, sweet NASA contracts and government subsidies, not to mention sales.
    So it is about avoiding legal action, not as the main cost itself, but knock n effects which would hit him.
    The Telegraph has just published this on Musk's investors' concerns (and it's not by Boris so probably contains the odd fact or two)
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/07/17/elon-musk-told-temper-concerning-behavior-shaking-investor-confidence/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    notme said:

    Everyday dairy products such as butter, yoghurt and cheese could become luxury items in Britain after Brexit, with price rises being caused by the slightest delay in the journey from farm to table, a report by the London School of Economics finds.

    The LSE research, commissioned by the company behind Lurpak


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/18/dairy-products-may-become-luxuries-after-uk-leaves-eu?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Hilarious. Utterly hilarious. Market places are not some carefully planned fragile ecosystem that are in a perpetual state of symbiosis. Market places are in constant flux.

    You want to know what the sensible response to such a ridiculous assertion by the Granuiad? “Why do we import butter and cheese when we have the largest dairy industry in Europe?”
    Well quite. I’d be more worried about empty shelves in Waitrose and M&S in Dubai than in the UK, and other places where food exports from the UK are commonplace.

    Retailers want to sell stuff, and will work through whatever is required to make that happen.

    Astonishingly M&S food have recently started importing milk, bread, sandwiches and salads from the UK to the Middle East overnight, having them on shelves in the morning over here.

    Companies work through these sort of complex logistics all the time, and the UK govt are unlikely to want to hold up food in transit that comes from trusted sources.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,880
    Cyclefree said:



    I'm not a great fan of Obama. By comparison with Trump he's amazing of course.

    But look at what he has left behind: there's an element of "apres moi le deluge" about him. His biggest failure I think is being too calm and rational. To get people on your side - and stay there - you need to appeal to the emotions as well so that they are willing to listen to what you say rationally. Obama is a great lecturer but there is a chilly distance about him I think which has, in retrospect, been a weakness. He has been very good indeed at analysing a situation but possibly less successful at effecting change - certainly on the international side. I cannot really speak about his domestic achievements.

    Domestically I think Obama was very successful, his list of achievements is really impressive. Internationally it's a much more mixed bag.

    I do think he tried far too hard to build bridges with the republicans and work on compromises when it was pretty clear they weren't interested.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    felix said:

    afcone said:

    This seems to be massively complacent on food, at least in the short-term (I think the government would capitulate to EU demands almost immediately and seek EEA or extended transition). Saying 'no government would vote to starve its population with regulations' doesn't quite cut it.

    F

    The simple fact is that if we are outside the customs union and single market, the EU *has* to enforce a border, and no such infrastructure currently exists. Even if the UK decides not to enforce the border (which due to MFN clauses/WTO rules means it would have to do the same for a large number of non-EU countries - not exactly 'Taking Back Control'), our ports will jam up and importation of all goods will surely be affected.

    The simple fact is that, absent an agreement, by default we fall out of the legal framework that facilitates imports of many critical goods. I'm sure it will be portrayed by Brexiters as 'punishment' from the EU but it's no such thing - it's just that our entire infrastructure for the past decades has been built around being part of that framework, and it simply will not cope if we get a sudden stop.

    (And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

    felix said:

    Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

    Since he is unable to do so until we leave presumably you are keen on a swift exit.
    My point was it is much easier to do beneficial deals as part of the EU than it is a single much smaller economy. So exiting at all is not in the national interest. But yes the sooner we exit the sooner we can start the process of rejoining.
    It took the EU 60 odd years to do a deal with Japan. Your understanding of 'easier' could do with a tweak or twom.
    Ironically the European Commission have now kind of got down the trade agreement things to a reasonably quick process considering what they are trying to do. That is a relatively new development however.

    The deals are still the lowest common denominator that satisfies every member state.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_P said:
    Good. Let’s all agree now there’s not going to be a deal and spend the next 9 months preparing for a smooth transition to WTO terms. We’ve got £39bn in the contingency fund, minus a few pension payments.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764
    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:
    Watching two members of Islington Labour Party from the 80s knock lumps off each other in public is like watching a wasp land on a stinging nettle. You know somebody is going to get very badly stung but you don't really care which one it is.
    To be honest, I prefer Corbyn to Hodge.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    afcone said:

    This

    (And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

    felix said:

    Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

    Since he is unable to do so until we leave presumably you are keen on a swift exit.
    My point was it is much easier to do beneficial deals as part of the EU than it is a single much smaller economy. So exiting at all is not in the national interest. But yes the sooner we exit the sooner we can start the process of rejoining.
    For us to rejoin would mean a worse deal than the utterly horrendous deal we already had, plus we would have to accept the Euro as our currency.

    Not going to happen any time soon. Single market membership i could see, but if we do leave it all, its hard to see us even joining up to the Single Market without a referendum.
    (entry to the common market was all we ever really wanted anyway)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:
    Watching two members of Islington Labour Party from the 80s knock lumps off each other in public is like watching a wasp land on a stinging nettle. You know somebody is going to get very badly stung but you don't really care which one it is.
    To be honest, I prefer Corbyn to Hodge.
    Why? Is there a significant or meaningful difference between them?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fun fact.
    Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

    And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too
    What Brexiters haven’t yet realised is that No Deal, apart from crashing the economy, *also* guarantees us Corbyn.

    I still don’t think there will be No Deal, and the most likely outcome is a Deal not a million miles away from Chequers.

    However I have underestimated the effect of ongoing damage to May and Tories of getting to Brexit - any Brexit.

    Corbyn as next PM looks better than 50% at the moment, IMO.
    Looks like it:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704?s=19

    Add in a bit of tactical voting and we are sorted.
    Get Boris in and get UKIP voters back to the Tories and not sorted for Corbyn
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Jonathan said:

    Politics today really is building towards a perfect storm. If it were a book, published at anytime before 2014, it would be seen as too far-fetched.

    Things will get worse before they get better. We need the Thunderstorm to break.

    I'm not as pessimistic as Frank Turner in this song, but it is an interesting set of lyrics... One of my new favourite artists.
    https://youtu.be/QWmnBcNijvo
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Looks way too optimistic, implying short term disruption only. The long term impact of a no deal Brexit would be immense. No international investor would touch Britain with a bargepole: they would correctly conclude that this was a country that was actively hostile to business and insanely incompetent.

    Well from my own experience in the M&A sector, the opposite has happened since the Brexit vote, which was also seen as insanely incompetent by many. Foreign interest in UK companies (SMEs at least) has increased markedly, numbers of transactions have increased, values have increased. This article from Bloomberg gives a further take on this:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/foreign-purchases-of-u-k-firms-have-soared-since-brexit-vote

    Further to this many of my clients have seen foreign opportunities open up within their own businesses since the vote in terms of new overseas custom and see this trend continuing at present.

    Whether or not this would continue in a No Deal scenario is of course unknown, but this increase in overseas interest in UK business was hardly predicted after the vote.

    Southam Observer - I realise I never answered your question several days ago on this subject, mainly because thousands of posts had been written by the time I saw your response. Hope that answers your question partially. I would add that certain sectors (manufacturing for example) are seeing this more than others and clearly the weak pound has helped.

    Also, congratulations on your recent deal. I know first hand how stressful the whole experience can be so enjoy your success that you've most certainly earned.
    Dont Tell Scott P this, according to him the world will end. Its so odd that the FTSE is at such a high figure considering as of March 29th 2019 we will be in a great depression according to many on here. Perhaps all these investors are complete idiots and should listen to the doom mongers on here.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Fun fact.
    Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

    And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too
    What Brexiters haven’t yet realised is that No Deal, apart from crashing the economy, *also* guarantees us Corbyn.

    I still don’t think there will be No Deal, and the most likely outcome is a Deal not a million miles away from Chequers.

    However I have underestimated the effect of ongoing damage to May and Tories of getting to Brexit - any Brexit.

    Corbyn as next PM looks better than 50% at the moment, IMO.
    It is because May's Brexit is seen as too soft Corbyn is likely now with all the movement Tory to UKIP while Thatcher beat Foot with a united right
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fun fact.
    Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

    And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too
    What Brexiters haven’t yet realised is that No Deal, apart from crashing the economy, *also* guarantees us Corbyn.

    I still don’t think there will be No Deal, and the most likely outcome is a Deal not a million miles away from Chequers.

    However I have underestimated the effect of ongoing damage to May and Tories of getting to Brexit - any Brexit.

    Corbyn as next PM looks better than 50% at the moment, IMO.
    Looks like it:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704?s=19

    Add in a bit of tactical voting and we are sorted.
    Get Boris in and get UKIP voters back to the Tories and not sorted for Corbyn
    If the Conservative Party gets infected with UKIP voters and policies, then it will lose other potential voters - such as myself.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kle4 said:

    "My lawyers have told me to make an insincere apology to try to save some of my money"

    Musk apologises. Even then he seems to focus on the guys 'actions' against Musk. So hes saying his response wasn't justified...but but i get the impression he's still justifying it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44870303

    Some enterprising US lawyer is going to take this on a percentage basis. Let’s start at $100m damages shall we Mr Musk?

    Musk’s lawyer needs to confiscate the guy’s phone and send him to a desert island for a week’s R&R, he’s clearly knackered from sleeping at the Tesla factory for the last three months.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,764

    IMHO, some kind of deal will be agreed, but I wouldn't count on it getting past the Commons. Labour are bound to vote against any deal (saying they'd have done better) as will some of the ERG.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    I see that:-

    1. The government is even more of a mess than it was a few days ago.
    2. The ERG are a bunch of total and utter c**ts.
    3. The opposition is now officially an institutionally anti-semitic party.
    4. The US President is still a malicious moron who is appeasing Russia.
    5. The Lib Dems are invisible.
    6. The rest of the EU are looking on in wonder and bewilderment at the UK's collective nervous breakdown.
    7. From next March - when there will be little fatty food on the shelves - Britain will be able to solve its obesity crisis and, probably, also the problem of an ageing population. To think: a crash-out Brexit could solve obesity, increasing demand by oldies on the NHS and the social care problems all at once!
    8. The North West of England - officially the wettest part of the UK - has a hose pipe ban.

    Have I missed anything important?

    The garden looks lovely?
    It looks spectacular! Far fewer slugs this year, for some reason, thank God!

    Mind you I have just planted a beech hedge on the boundary of my new garden in the Lakes so the hose pipe ban is not at all welcome. Still the new trees appear - just - to be surviving.....
    We have a spectacular beech hedge at the back of the house, that alternates green and copper! Worth persevering with (even if you have to sneakily empty Windermere to get it going!)
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fun fact.
    Jeremy Corbyn will next month surpass Michael Foot’s duration (just under three years) as Leader of the Labour Party.

    And if he wins the next general election we may find out what a Foot government would have been like given Corbyn has a similar platform plus keeping us out of the EU of course too
    What Brexiters haven’t yet realised is that No Deal, apart from crashing the economy, *also* guarantees us Corbyn.

    I still don’t think there will be No Deal, and the most likely outcome is a Deal not a million miles away from Chequers.

    However I have underestimated the effect of ongoing damage to May and Tories of getting to Brexit - any Brexit.

    Corbyn as next PM looks better than 50% at the moment, IMO.
    Looks like it:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1019329326557384704?s=19

    Add in a bit of tactical voting and we are sorted.
    Get Boris in and get UKIP voters back to the Tories and not sorted for Corbyn
    If the Conservative Party gets infected with UKIP voters and policies, then it will lose other potential voters - such as myself.
    Cameron unintentionally disinfected the party from the UKIPers with gay marriage. Unfortunately they are back telling us the party they said they wouldnt vote for anymore is not doing what they want.

    There are rumblings of people wanting de-selections.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited July 2018
    notme said:

    afcone said:

    This

    (And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

    felix said:

    Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

    Since he is unable to do so until we leave presumably you are keen on a swift exit.
    My point was it is much easier to do beneficial deals as part of the EU than it is a single much smaller economy. So exiting at all is not in the national interest. But yes the sooner we exit the sooner we can start the process of rejoining.
    For us to rejoin would mean a worse deal than the utterly horrendous deal we already had, plus we would have to accept the Euro as our currency.

    Not going to happen any time soon. Single market membership i could see, but if we do leave it all, its hard to see us even joining up to the Single Market without a referendum.
    (entry to the common market was all we ever really wanted anyway)
    I'll bite. Could you list, in a clear and objective way the elements which made/make our relationship "utterly horrendous".
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,747
    edited July 2018
    Christ, when this is their last, best hope.

    'Rather than go on a walking holiday, May should go on a tour of the UK to try and sell her Brexit plans to the public.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Sign seen in Gloucester on the supports of the Quedegeley overbridge:

    'Save the NHS
    Burn the Tories.'

    That is where this country is politically and it has nothing to do with the effects of Brexit.

    This is also why at all costs Corbyn must be kept from power. He may pose as the cuddly uncle - although looking at his actions it's an unconvincing pose - but a very large number of his supporters would have been expelled from the SA for being too extreme and violent.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Scott_P said:
    I don't think that is a particularly big deal. Bebb's only function was to serve as the Fireplace Salesman's human shield. He was wheeled out to announce bad news or to comply with inconvenient FoI requests.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    People have long questioned whether the Tory party is dying. The falling, ageing membership for starters. The party is ripe for a takeover, even more so than Labour in 2015. I wonder if Steve Bannon ad Vlad are working on it already?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Christ, when this is their last, best hope.

    'Rather than go on a walking holiday, May should go on a tour of the UK to try and sell her Brexit plans to the public.'
    Well, given the fiasco last time she went on a walking holiday, the first part sounds a good idea.

    On the other hand, the second part is (to quote Blackadder) the silliest plan since Nelson's famous signal at the battle of the Nile.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yet another House of Commons voting cock-up:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867866

    "An MP who is on maternity leave has accused the government of a breach of trust over a key House of Commons vote on Brexit.

    Lib Dem Jo Swinson was "paired" with Tory chairman Brandon Lewis so she could be at home with her baby son during the Trade Bill vote.

    This should mean neither MP votes so their absences cancel each other out.

    But Mr Lewis did vote with the government - he has since apologised for an "honest mistake" by whips."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    currystar said:

    Looks way too optimistic, implying short term disruption only. The long term impact of a no deal Brexit would be immense. No international investor would touch Britain with a bargepole: they would correctly conclude that this was a country that was actively hostile to business and insanely incompetent.

    Well from my own experience in the M&A sector, the opposite has happened since the Brexit vote, which was also seen as insanely incompetent by many. Foreign interest in UK companies (SMEs at least) has increased markedly, numbers of transactions have increased, values have increased. This article from Bloomberg gives a further take on this:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/foreign-purchases-of-u-k-firms-have-soared-since-brexit-vote

    Further to this many of my clients have seen foreign opportunities open up within their own businesses since the vote in terms of new overseas custom and see this trend continuing at present.

    Whether or not this would continue in a No Deal scenario is of course unknown, but this increase in overseas interest in UK business was hardly predicted after the vote.

    Southam Observer - I realise I never answered your question several days ago on this subject, mainly because thousands of posts had been written by the time I saw your response. Hope that answers your question partially. I would add that certain sectors (manufacturing for example) are seeing this more than others and clearly the weak pound has helped.

    Also, congratulations on your recent deal. I know first hand how stressful the whole experience can be so enjoy your success that you've most certainly earned.
    Dont Tell Scott P this, according to him the world will end. Its so odd that the FTSE is at such a high figure considering as of March 29th 2019 we will be in a great depression according to many on here. Perhaps all these investors are complete idiots and should listen to the doom mongers on here.
    They’ll get really confused if the pound falls again on “no deal” “fears”, it will cause the FTSE to surge even higher.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    matt said:

    notme said:

    afcone said:

    This

    (And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

    felix said:

    Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

    Since he is unable to do so until we leave presumably you are keen on a swift exit.
    My point was it is much easier to do beneficial deals as part of the EU than it is a single much smaller economy. So exiting at all is not in the national interest. But yes the sooner we exit the sooner we can start the process of rejoining.
    For us to rejoin would mean a worse deal than the utterly horrendous deal we already had, plus we would have to accept the Euro as our currency.

    Not going to happen any time soon. Single market membership i could see, but if we do leave it all, its hard to see us even joining up to the Single Market without a referendum.
    (entry to the common market was all we ever really wanted anyway)
    I'll bite. Could you list, in a clear and objective way the elements which made/make our relationship "utterly horrendous".
    Despite being one of the poorer member states when we entered we consistently acted as one of the largest contributors. Even after the rebate there was not a single year in which we got more than we put in. Not even close.

    We currently pay £9 billion net for the rights to buy and sell widgets and insurance on widgets across the EU.

    The worst free trade agreement in the history of mankind.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Scott_P said:
    Here we go... Just need a Con MP (Anna Soubry?) to do the same and the "realignment" will be underway.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Scott_P said:
    Good on him, finally someone with the balls to walk away from the antisemitic party.

    Hope the Tories and LDs stand aside and let him run as an independent against Labour at the election, if we have one soon.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    AndyJS said:

    Yet another House of Commons voting cock-up:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867866

    "An MP who is on maternity leave has accused the government of a breach of trust over a key House of Commons vote on Brexit.

    Lib Dem Jo Swinson was "paired" with Tory chairman Brandon Lewis so she could be at home with her baby son during the Trade Bill vote.

    This should mean neither MP votes so their absences cancel each other out.

    But Mr Lewis did vote with the government - he has since apologised for an "honest mistake" by whips."

    It wasn't a cock-up
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    People have long questioned whether the Tory party is dying. The falling, ageing membership for starters. The party is ripe for a takeover, even more so than Labour in 2015. I wonder if Steve Bannon ad Vlad are working on it already?

    Some of the people who you might think would be involved with staging such a takeover have recently joined UKIP, so if this is in the offing then there is less co-ordination then some might assume.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Sean_F said:


    IMHO, some kind of deal will be agreed, but I wouldn't count on it getting past the Commons. Labour are bound to vote against any deal (saying they'd have done better) as will some of the ERG.

    This is the key point for me as well. We are seeing that if May keeps the ERG lot on side she can get the votes in Parliament. The remain faction is just not large enough or committed enough. Mr Redwood has always made the point that the transition deal and the cash must be approved by Parliament. As we are constantly told the future trade agreement will be a woolly political statement the question to ask must be "are the ERG/Tory party going to vote for 40bill, no exit of CAP, continued FoM, etc for two years?" for a wishy washy political statement.
    I do not think so.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Here we go... Just need a Con MP (Anna Soubry?) to do the same and the "realignment" will be underway.
    Judging by his resignation letter this is related to his disciplinary case so it's probably a one off.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Yet another House of Commons voting cock-up:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867866

    "An MP who is on maternity leave has accused the government of a breach of trust over a key House of Commons vote on Brexit.

    Lib Dem Jo Swinson was "paired" with Tory chairman Brandon Lewis so she could be at home with her baby son during the Trade Bill vote.

    This should mean neither MP votes so their absences cancel each other out.

    But Mr Lewis did vote with the government - he has since apologised for an "honest mistake" by whips."

    It wasn't a cock-up
    Do you think it was deliberate?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yet another House of Commons voting cock-up:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867866

    "An MP who is on maternity leave has accused the government of a breach of trust over a key House of Commons vote on Brexit.

    Lib Dem Jo Swinson was "paired" with Tory chairman Brandon Lewis so she could be at home with her baby son during the Trade Bill vote.

    This should mean neither MP votes so their absences cancel each other out.

    But Mr Lewis did vote with the government - he has since apologised for an "honest mistake" by whips."

    It wasn't a cock-up
    Do you think it was deliberate?
    Of course it was.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    ydoethur said:

    Sign seen in Gloucester on the supports of the Quedegeley overbridge:

    'Save the NHS
    Burn the Tories.'

    That is where this country is politically and it has nothing to do with the effects of Brexit.

    This is also why at all costs Corbyn must be kept from power. He may pose as the cuddly uncle - although looking at his actions it's an unconvincing pose - but a very large number of his supporters would have been expelled from the SA for being too extreme and violent.

    Yes. The degeneration of politics pre-dated the referendum. I remember the 2015 Conservative Conference in Manchester. I've never witnessed baying mobs before (queue joke about whether I was inside the conference or out).

    A friend of mine got threatened with rape. Threatened with rape at the entrance to the conference. There was jewish delegates who when they entered got sung songs from loud hailers about burning in gas ovens.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    ydoethur said:

    Sean_F said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:
    Watching two members of Islington Labour Party from the 80s knock lumps off each other in public is like watching a wasp land on a stinging nettle. You know somebody is going to get very badly stung but you don't really care which one it is.
    To be honest, I prefer Corbyn to Hodge.
    Why? Is there a significant or meaningful difference between them?
    Doesn`t Hodge actually have a track record for being in charge of running something? Not at all successfully, of course. Corbyn is a complete shot in the dark.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    murali_s said:

    O/T Dry spell.

    Looks like more of the same if the latest ECMWF is to be believed. Maybe a thundery breakdown at day 10 but that's way off!

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?model=ecm&lid=OP

    LHR rainfall stats tell their own tale: June = 0.4mm, July (to-date) = 0.0mm!

    Weather has already broken in Scotland with rain across the central belt this morning. Last long-range forecast I saw said this would spread across the country by the beginning of August.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yet another House of Commons voting cock-up:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867866

    "An MP who is on maternity leave has accused the government of a breach of trust over a key House of Commons vote on Brexit.

    Lib Dem Jo Swinson was "paired" with Tory chairman Brandon Lewis so she could be at home with her baby son during the Trade Bill vote.

    This should mean neither MP votes so their absences cancel each other out.

    But Mr Lewis did vote with the government - he has since apologised for an "honest mistake" by whips."

    It wasn't a cock-up
    Do you think it was deliberate?
    From what I read it's hard to see how it could not be. He only voted in the two key votes
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    I see that:-

    1. The government is even more of a mess than it was a few days ago.
    2. The ERG are a bunch of total and utter c**ts.
    3. The opposition is now officially an institutionally anti-semitic party.
    4. The US President is still a malicious moron who is appeasing Russia.
    5. The Lib Dems are invisible.
    6. The rest of the EU are looking on in wonder and bewilderment at the UK's collective nervous breakdown.
    7. From next March - when there will be little fatty food on the shelves - Britain will be able to solve its obesity crisis and, probably, also the problem of an ageing population. To think: a crash-out Brexit could solve obesity, increasing demand by oldies on the NHS and the social care problems all at once!
    8. The North West of England - officially the wettest part of the UK - has a hose pipe ban.

    Have I missed anything important?

    The garden looks lovely?
    It looks spectacular! Far fewer slugs this year, for some reason, thank God!

    Mind you I have just planted a beech hedge on the boundary of my new garden in the Lakes so the hose pipe ban is not at all welcome. Still the new trees appear - just - to be surviving.....
    I did hear that Beech trees were particularly vulnerable to the expected climate change in the UK as they apparently have shallower roots than our other native trees. You would expect the North West to be their last redoubt, however.

    On (7) it was recently concluded that the height of the Dutch is at least partially because of their diet being rich in dairy products, so we might expect the British to become shorter if there is a prolonged shortage of dairy products.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122
    Great 'summer holiday' news for Sir Cliff :)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    AndyJS said:

    Yet another House of Commons voting cock-up:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867866

    "An MP who is on maternity leave has accused the government of a breach of trust over a key House of Commons vote on Brexit.

    Lib Dem Jo Swinson was "paired" with Tory chairman Brandon Lewis so she could be at home with her baby son during the Trade Bill vote.

    This should mean neither MP votes so their absences cancel each other out.

    But Mr Lewis did vote with the government - he has since apologised for an "honest mistake" by whips."

    It wasn't a cock-up
    Was that Cable and Farrell then? Spare us the faux outrage please.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,747
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good on him, finally someone with the balls to walk away from the antisemitic party.

    Hope the Tories and LDs stand aside and let him run as an independent against Labour at the election, if we have one soon.
    Since he'd already had the Labour whip withdrawn, didn't that mean he was effectively an independent anyway?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Here we go... Just need a Con MP (Anna Soubry?) to do the same and the "realignment" will be underway.
    Judging by his resignation letter this is related to his disciplinary case so it's probably a one off.
    Yes, though there have been a lot of these disciplinary related one-offs for Labour recently. Doesn't Woodcock make it three at the moment? (O'Mara and Hopkins as well, I thought)
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    felix said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yet another House of Commons voting cock-up:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867866

    "An MP who is on maternity leave has accused the government of a breach of trust over a key House of Commons vote on Brexit.

    Lib Dem Jo Swinson was "paired" with Tory chairman Brandon Lewis so she could be at home with her baby son during the Trade Bill vote.

    This should mean neither MP votes so their absences cancel each other out.

    But Mr Lewis did vote with the government - he has since apologised for an "honest mistake" by whips."

    It wasn't a cock-up
    Was that Cable and Farrell then? Spare us the faux outrage please.
    ???
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Sir Cliff has won his case against BBC

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-sir-cliff-richard-to-get-ruling-in-bbc-court-battle-11440396

    Time for the firing's to begin at BBC HQ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited July 2018
    GIN1138 said:

    Sir Cliff has won his case against BBC

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-sir-cliff-richard-to-get-ruling-in-bbc-court-battle-11440396

    Time for the firing's to begin at BBC HQ?

    Don’t be silly. They will close ranks and protect their own, while the tax payer gets walloped. The only people who lost their jobs over saville were reporters trying to expose it, not any that 100% knew absolutely nothing.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,122

    felix said:

    AndyJS said:

    Yet another House of Commons voting cock-up:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44867866

    "An MP who is on maternity leave has accused the government of a breach of trust over a key House of Commons vote on Brexit.

    Lib Dem Jo Swinson was "paired" with Tory chairman Brandon Lewis so she could be at home with her baby son during the Trade Bill vote.

    This should mean neither MP votes so their absences cancel each other out.

    But Mr Lewis did vote with the government - he has since apologised for an "honest mistake" by whips."

    It wasn't a cock-up
    Was that Cable and Farrell then? Spare us the faux outrage please.
    ???
    !!!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,001
    GIN1138 said:

    Sir Cliff has won his case against BBC

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-sir-cliff-richard-to-get-ruling-in-bbc-court-battle-11440396

    Time for the firing's to begin at BBC HQ?

    Great news - he was destroyed by them
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    notme said:

    matt said:

    notme said:

    afcone said:

    This

    (And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

    felix said:

    Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

    Since he is unable to do so until we leave presumably you are keen on a swift exit.
    My point was it is much easier to do beneficial deals as part of the EU than it is a single much smaller economy. So exiting at all is not in the national interest. But yes the sooner we exit the sooner we can start the process of rejoining.
    For us to rejoin would mean a worse deal than the utterly horrendous deal we already had, plus we would have to accept the Euro as our currency.

    Not going to happen any time soon. Single market membership i could see, but if we do leave it all, its hard to see us even joining up to the Single Market without a referendum.
    (entry to the common market was all we ever really wanted anyway)
    I'll bite. Could you list, in a clear and objective way the elements which made/make our relationship "utterly horrendous".
    Despite being one of the poorer member states when we entered we consistently acted as one of the largest contributors. Even after the rebate there was not a single year in which we got more than we put in. Not even close.

    We currently pay £9 billion net for the rights to buy and sell widgets and insurance on widgets across the EU.

    The worst free trade agreement in the history of mankind.
    Just assertions then. What you are highlighting to an extent is the dominance of London and the South East in the UK economy. Is that the EU's responsibility?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    GIN1138 said:

    Sir Cliff has won his case against BBC

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-sir-cliff-richard-to-get-ruling-in-bbc-court-battle-11440396

    Time for the firing's to begin at BBC HQ?

    Great news - he was destroyed by them
    Some police officers should be getting fired also.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    excellent news that cliff has won. predictable but very good news
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I see inflation has stayed at 2.4% below expectations. So we now have rising wage growth, low inflation and full employment. Vote Labour!!!!
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Woodcock's resignation from Labour was inevitable but still significant.

    To lose one MP....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2018
    About time someone put a stop to prurient news outlets. Being the BBC it will actually effect change.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    matt said:

    notme said:

    matt said:

    notme said:

    afcone said:

    This

    (And that's just food - don't get me on to the VAT stuff...)

    felix said:

    Meanwhile back in the real world the EU have just struck a trade deal with Japan. How long will it take Liam Fox to catch up with that one?

    Since he is unable to do so until we leave presumably you are keen on a swift exit.
    My point was it is much easier to do beneficial deals as part of the EU than it is a single much smaller economy. So exiting at all is not in the national interest. But yes the sooner we exit the sooner we can start the process of rejoining.
    For us to rejoin would mean a worse deal than the utterly horrendous deal we already had, plus we would have to accept the Euro as our currency.

    Not going to happen any time soon. Single market membership i could see, but if we do leave it all, its hard to see us even joining up to the Single Market without a referendum.
    (entry to the common market was all we ever really wanted anyway)
    I'll bite. Could you list, in a clear and objective way the elements which made/make our relationship "utterly horrendous".
    Despite being one of the poorer member states when we entered we consistently acted as one of the largest contributors. Even after the rebate there was not a single year in which we got more than we put in. Not even close.

    We currently pay £9 billion net for the rights to buy and sell widgets and insurance on widgets across the EU.

    The worst free trade agreement in the history of mankind.
    Just assertions then. What you are highlighting to an extent is the dominance of London and the South East in the UK economy. Is that the EU's responsibility?
    Been the second largest net contributor for forty years is an assertion? Our relationship with the EU was transactional. And it was a piss poor transaction. Well rid. I would very happily be a member of the Single Market and contribute the necessary funds to maintain it.
    As i would have happily voted to stay in the EEC in 1975 and voted leave in 2016.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited July 2018

    GIN1138 said:

    Sir Cliff has won his case against BBC

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-sir-cliff-richard-to-get-ruling-in-bbc-court-battle-11440396

    Time for the firing's to begin at BBC HQ?

    Great news - he was destroyed by them
    TBH the six figure damages seem awfully low, although clearly the costs will be massive. I’d expected damages to be well into the seven figures from the BBC, £200k is chump change to them and I’d have valued Sir Cliff’s reputation as being worth much more than that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Sandpit said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sir Cliff has won his case against BBC

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-sir-cliff-richard-to-get-ruling-in-bbc-court-battle-11440396

    Time for the firing's to begin at BBC HQ?

    Great news - he was destroyed by them
    TBH the six figure damages seem awfully low, although clearly the costs will be massive. I’d expected damages to be well into the seven figures from the BBC, £200k is chump change to them.
    It was an absolutely mental decision by the BBC not just apologise straight away like the plod did.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    GIN1138 said:

    Sir Cliff has won his case against BBC

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-sir-cliff-richard-to-get-ruling-in-bbc-court-battle-11440396

    Time for the firing's to begin at BBC HQ?

    Don’t be silly. They will close ranks and protect their own, while the tax payer gets walloped. The only people who lost their jobs over saville were reporters trying to expose it, not any that 100% knew absolutely nothing.
    Dan Johnson's already been reduced to a non person.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    Good on him, finally someone with the balls to walk away from the antisemitic party.

    Hope the Tories and LDs stand aside and let him run as an independent against Labour at the election, if we have one soon.
    Since he'd already had the Labour whip withdrawn, didn't that mean he was effectively an independent anyway?
    Yes, he was ‘suspended’ from the party pending an ‘investigation’ which had been going on for over a year with no resolution in sight. That he’s been an outspoken critic of Jeremy Corbyn and Labour Party antisemitism is of course completely and utterly unrelated to any of the above.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sir Cliff has won his case against BBC

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-sir-cliff-richard-to-get-ruling-in-bbc-court-battle-11440396

    Time for the firing's to begin at BBC HQ?

    Don’t be silly. They will close ranks and protect their own, while the tax payer gets walloped. The only people who lost their jobs over saville were reporters trying to expose it, not any that 100% knew absolutely nothing.
    Dan Johnson's already been reduced to a non person.
    Sacked or just shifted only to be promoted again in a few years....like those implicated with saville scandal?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sir Cliff has won his case against BBC

    https://news.sky.com/story/live-sir-cliff-richard-to-get-ruling-in-bbc-court-battle-11440396

    Time for the firing's to begin at BBC HQ?

    Don’t be silly. They will close ranks and protect their own, while the tax payer gets walloped. The only people who lost their jobs over saville were reporters trying to expose it, not any that 100% knew absolutely nothing.
    Dan Johnson's already been reduced to a non person.
    He'll end up working for Murdoch. It'll suit him better
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Roger said:

    About time someone put a stop to prurient news outlets. Being the BBC it will actually effect change.

    I'm not really up on what happened. He had his house raided by the police and then the BBC reported on it. Whilst I can't comment on this specific case it does raise challenging issues. Should the media be allowed to report these kind of things? Where is the line. Let's face it badly behaved public figures will certainly have their eye on this.
This discussion has been closed.