Watching two members of Islington Labour Party from the 80s knock lumps off each other in public is like watching a wasp land on a stinging nettle. You know somebody is going to get very badly stung but you don't really care which one it is.
To be honest, I prefer Corbyn to Hodge.
Hobson’s choice: a woman who turned a blind eye to child abuse by her employees in the borough she ran and who insulted one of the survivors vs a man (the MP for the borough during the time when the abuse was taking place) who turns a blind eye to anti-semitism by his supporters.
If claimants were allowed to claim Contribution -based JSA for 12 months - rather than 6 months -as was the case in the 1970s, that alone would add significantly to the headline figures. There would be a similar impact from allowing claims from 16-18 year olds - and from students during vacations as was formerly the case.
It would increase the claimant count, but the ILO figures are the ones you use to look at unemployment numbers on a like for like basis.
I doubt that the ILO data takes account of people working 18 hours per week who wish to be in fulltime jobs.
The ILO data is generally excellent, and tracks employment rates, part time, and self employment.
Just because you don't like the answers it gives, doesn't mean it's wrong.
I have a great deal of respect for ILO data , but it seems unlikely that the tracking of part time employment rates identifies those who wish to work full time.
Looks like currystar took the BBC's incorrectly reported figure instead of the source.
Edit: Could be my confusion between CPIH and some other CPI.
The correct source further enhances my point. Does anyone think that the Government should get any credit for this incredible economic performance or is this performance absolutely nothing to do with the Government ?
So, real wages are still down on when the Cons took power in 2010? Sure, if you want to take credit for that then go ahead.
Seriously do you think that pay rises have only happened in the building trade?
Well you've only given examples from the building trade.
£10 in 2010 money is £12.50 these days so you'd need to have had a 25% pay rise from 2010 to be breaking even - and of course that's just on CPI. So ignoring rocketing house prices.
The funniest example was James Chapman’s “The Democrats”, whose first principle was to campaign to overturn the largest democratic vote in British history!
And yes, the SNP are still utterly toxic in England.
They’ll be pitching themselves at the majority who think it’s a wrong decision and/or the still greater majority who are now Brexit pessimists.
“Accepting Brexit” means different things to different people. Some lunatics on here still believe that it requires a customs union despite the fact only one in six know what a customs union is. A politician who articulated a positive vision for constructive engagement with the EU would find a ready audience.
But it’s not going to happen. As of now, the choices are ultra-destructive no-deal Brexit, Remain and Mayan Brexit. All three would be catastrophic for Britain in diffferent ways. None would resolve Britain’s relationship with the EU.
You have said yourself that Brexit needs to be allowed to happen. We also agree that the EU are not going to put a fence across Ireland no matter what has been said by Varakdar and Barnier in recent months.
My personal view is that a managed exit to WTO terms from an 18 month implementation period is doable if both sides agree now or shortly that there’s not going to be a deal. Negotiating a Canada or Japan style deal from outside is going to be easier than trying to maintain links to existing EU structures after we leave, and a negotiation from outside will be more equitable than the one-sided A50 rules. Hopefully (yes I know) politicians on all sides will want to engage with the EU once we have left, but right now there’s too many on all sides who are trying to scupper anything reasonable in persuit of their ideology.
How do you stop Ireland vetoing a deal that creates a hard border on the island of Ireland?
Whatever problems you might think that Theresa May has they are as nothing compared to the extinction of Fine Gael that would follow them accepting that.
Some awareness of the politics and history of your counterparts in a negotiation is required to reach a successful agreement.
Ireland doesn't have a veto on the A50 agreement; the voting is by QMV. In practice though, Dublin's opinion will sound loudly in Brussels and is unlikely to be overridden unless the EU26 think it's being unnecessarily intransigent and unreasonable.
Looks like currystar took the BBC's incorrectly reported figure instead of the source.
Edit: Could be my confusion between CPIH and some other CPI.
The correct source further enhances my point. Does anyone think that the Government should get any credit for this incredible economic performance or is this performance absolutely nothing to do with the Government ?
So, real wages are still down on when the Cons took power in 2010? Sure, if you want to take credit for that then go ahead.
Seriously do you think that pay rises have only happened in the building trade?
Well you've only given examples from the building trade.
£10 in 2010 money is £12.50 these days so you'd need to have had a 25% pay rise from 2010 to be breaking even - and of course that's just on CPI. So ignoring rocketing house prices.
House prices have only rocketed in London and the South East.
It is such a struggle these days to get apprentices. The must stay in education to 18 is completely to blame. In theory it is a good idea but in practice it is awful. Schools get paid for each student they keep till 18 so we now only get 5% of the apprenticeship applications that we did 10 years ago.
Interesting. I’d assumed that you’d just pick up the apprentices at 18 instead of 16, and they’d have spent the last two years doing the physics and maths bits of electrics that’d you’d have to teach them anyway?
18 is too late to fully access the Government funding for the apprenticeship. It is a four year apprenticeship and they do day release at college one day a week where they learn the physics and maths stuff whilst getting paid. At 21 once qualified they will easily earn £40k plus per year. Unfortunately far too may 16-17 year olds stay on at School and do completely pointless Geography A- levels. The School does not care though as they get the Government funding.
That’s crap, it needs to be more integrated, so that those joining a genuine apprenticeship don’t need to wait for two years doing some crappy A-levels they’ll never use just to keep a school happy.
A little bit more fake news from Faisal, arguably the least trustworthy broadcaster around. He fails to mention that the poll shows the public are unanimously against offering 'remain' as an option in the event of a future referendum.
A little bit more fake news from Faisal, arguably the least trustworthy broadcaster around. He fails to mention that the poll shows the public are unanimously against offering 'remain' as an option in the event of a future referendum.
I don't think 'unanimously' means what you think it does ...
A little bit more fake news from Faisal, arguably the least trustworthy broadcaster around. He fails to mention that the poll shows the public are unanimously against offering 'remain' as an option in the event of a future referendum.
Barrow and Furness is probably number one on the Tories target list now.
A general issue for people defecting from their parties is that unless they get backing from a different party, as Artist suggests, they are almost certainly doomed as the electorate is massive polarised. Neither John Woodcock nor Anna Soubry would IMO have any chance of re-election if they were opposed by both Tory and Labour candidates (and AS has zero chance of Labour endorsement). (I expect AS to get her party's selection again if she wants it. John W, not so much.)
That means that people who are happy to jump to another party have a fair chance of survival, jumping to an independent position is a bridge to oblivion, unless an entirely new and successful party is formed. That's the main reason we're not seeing it happen often.
Dick Taverne and Eddie Milne were brief exceptions to that rule. Dave Nellist came close to hanging on in Coventry in 1992 after being deselected. Further back Desmond Donnelly polled nearly 12,000 votes as an Independent in Pembroke in 1970.
Yes, but we remember these exceptions because they're rare. Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent was of a similar situation (though he gained the seat from 'official' Labour, he was essentially the 'home Labour' choice), likewise SO Davies in 1970, nearby in Methyr.
But Nick's main point is right (and even these exceptions tend to testify to that as none survived any length of time): if people are to jump ship then they need to band together, form (or join) a party, and establish a national profile strong enough to transcend the original reason for departure.
I do agree - but then deselections are themselves quite rare.
They have been so far. Whether they'll remain rare in the face of the Corbynite revolution on the one hand, and Brexit divisions on the other, remains to be seen.
Given that the final choice is between Remain and exiting with no deal the 55:45 split in favour of Remain is awfully close (and then you have to wonder about systematic error in the opinion poll, given the performance at the time of the referendum in 2016, and the number of Remain/Leave voters found in the unweighted sample).
Corbyn was also told about the child sexual abuse scandal by Dr Liz Davies as early as 1991, and did nothing.
Arguably that was legally correct, as he had no direct responsibility in the matter. However, one speech from him condemning it could have blown the coverup sky high, potentially saving several children from molestation.
That's why I'm struggling to see the difference between the two.
Looks like currystar took the BBC's incorrectly reported figure instead of the source.
Edit: Could be my confusion between CPIH and some other CPI.
The correct source further enhances my point. Does anyone think that the Government should get any credit for this incredible economic performance or is this performance absolutely nothing to do with the Government ?
So, real wages are still down on when the Cons took power in 2010? Sure, if you want to take credit for that then go ahead.
Seriously do you think that pay rises have only happened in the building trade?
Well you've only given examples from the building trade.
£10 in 2010 money is £12.50 these days so you'd need to have had a 25% pay rise from 2010 to be breaking even - and of course that's just on CPI. So ignoring rocketing house prices.
House prices have only rocketed in London and the South East.
Got to love the irony of being charged with bringing the party into disrepute for, er, pointing out that the paty has brought the party into disrepute.....
There is clearly a Brexit gravitational model at work where the further the poster is from the EU, the more relaxed he is about severe economic upheaval as a result of the terms of Brexit departure.
I try my best to avoid making personal comments here, but the most removed of all from the average British person are those working in central London on high six figure salaries protected from EU immigrant competition.
For those people life is brilliant and anything that might disturb that brilliance is an existential threat, whereas for most people a shakeup of the status quo is long overdue and seen as an opportunity for future growth.
In an increasingly globalised world, we're all facing competition from foreigners. Legal and accounting services will be supplied by firms in Mumbai rather than Manchester.
They really won't. Outsourcing overseas has proven to be a failure - anyone who has experienced call centre service will know this. I have done a huge amount of work in India and I have tried to use them for outsourcing for IT, accounting and even basic administration and the reality is that they simply don't have the skills. Or I should say they have 'hard' skills but no ability to provide quality service.
That is why the UK is so successful. Goods manufacture can be copied and once copied in most cases can be commoditised to be done by low skilled employees. But services take decades to develop, they require an entire culture as much as a simple transfer of knowledge. I can say with the benefit of a great deal of experience that India's cultural issues (business and general) are going to choke off any real ability of that country to undermine the West in economic performance.
This is why the UK needs to Brexit properly. Germany has an economic model based on the past. Whatever they make, no matter how clever, can be produced just as well and much cheaper by China. But the services that the UK provide cannot be easily replicated and we need to set as an absolute priority giving countries access to our goods market in return for access to their markets for our services. And this can't be done without full control over our trade policy.
Given that the final choice is between Remain and exiting with no deal the 55:45 split in favour of Remain is awfully close (and then you have to wonder about systematic error in the opinion poll, given the performance at the time of the referendum in 2016, and the number of Remain/Leave voters found in the unweighted sample).
Given that it's two years since the referendum, I'd say the significant thing is how unpopular leaving with a deal is. It doesn't seem to be particularly dependent on the kind of deal - Brexiteers feel that a deal means having to bend the knee to Brussels and don't like it, and Remainers see it as a pointless exercise, even if they'd reluctantly accept the least damaging option.
That means that as we head into the final few months of Article 50, we have a polarised population, one half of which is betting the house on a nihilist stand of defiance. It can only end when one side wins the argument decisively, and there is only one side that is able to to that.
A little bit more fake news from Faisal, arguably the least trustworthy broadcaster around. He fails to mention that the poll shows the public are unanimously against offering 'remain' as an option in the event of a future referendum.
You have to wonder what SKY are going to do with him when Brexit happens....
LOL. For PB Leavers, Ireland is just a theoretical problem that can be solved by sending a construction group to build a wall in Crossmaglen and telling all parties to just suck it up.
Nobody can answer the questions on this EU hard border - how long will it take the ROI to build it and will Dublin be recompensed by the EU for the expense ?
If by "Hard Border", you mean "Customs Posts", then it could be achieved with a couple of portacabins.
LOL.
They would soon a) be ex-portacabins; and b) need a 6-month roulement battallion positioned around it.
A little bit more fake news from Faisal, arguably the least trustworthy broadcaster around. He fails to mention that the poll shows the public are unanimously against offering 'remain' as an option in the event of a future referendum.
You have to wonder what SKY are going to do with him when Brexit happens....
I don't think he could stomach living in a post Brexit landscape in fairness.
I've thought for a while that one of the obstacles in the way of a new party is the strong sense of tribalism among Labour MPs (sometimes called the "Labour family"). People like Stella Creasy and Jess Phillips are ultimately social democrats and, purely on policy issues, would be much closer to a centre party than to Corbyn. But the loyalty to the concept of Labour is such that I can't see them splitting off.
Or rather, I couldn't until now.
The anti-semitism row has the potential to splinter the party. If Corbyn persists in this absolute tone-deaf treatment, and uses the machinery of the party to silence those who disagree with him, then it becomes increasingly difficult for those who disagree to silently put up with it.
Utterly pathetic. Once again EU trade policy is exposed as nakedly political. Android is free software FFS - if Google want to insist is is bundled with other free software who cares? If you don't like it, buy an iPhone.
All we are seeing is gesture politics from the EU against successful US companies whilst we observe that there are not any EU companies that can actually compete against the likes of Google.
Britain Elects from the yougov numbers. Every question asked on the data tables suggests offering 'remain' as a referendum option is popular with comfortably less than half the voters. No wonder Faisal only tweets what he likes.
It is such a struggle these days to get apprentices. The must stay in education to 18 is completely to blame. In theory it is a good idea but in practice it is awful. Schools get paid for each student they keep till 18 so we now only get 5% of the apprenticeship applications that we did 10 years ago.
Interesting. I’d assumed that you’d just pick up the apprentices at 18 instead of 16, and they’d have spent the last two years doing the physics and maths bits of electrics that’d you’d have to teach them anyway?
18 is too late to fully access the Government funding for the apprenticeship. It is a four year apprenticeship and they do day release at college one day a week where they learn the physics and maths stuff whilst getting paid. At 21 once qualified they will easily earn £40k plus per year. Unfortunately far too may 16-17 year olds stay on at School and do completely pointless Geography A- levels. The School does not care though as they get the Government funding.
That’s crap, it needs to be more integrated, so that those joining a genuine apprenticeship don’t need to wait for two years doing some crappy A-levels they’ll never use just to keep a school happy.
It is unfortuantely what is currently happening, we have just employed 5 apprentices because we are so busy, we had a total of 8 applications. 4 of the the applicants were sons of people who had worked here in the past. Schools do nothing to encourage students into apprenticeships. i even phoned our Local School and offered to come in and give a chat to potential apprentices. They did not want me.
There is clearly a Brexit gravitational model at work where the further the poster is from the EU, the more relaxed he is about severe economic upheaval as a result of the terms of Brexit departure.
I try my best to avoid making personal comments here, but the most removed of all from the average British person are those working in central London on high six figure salaries protected from EU immigrant competition.
For those people life is brilliant and anything that might disturb that brilliance is an existential threat, whereas for most people a shakeup of the status quo is long overdue and seen as an opportunity for future growth.
In an increasingly globalised world, we're all facing competition from foreigners. Legal and accounting services will be supplied by firms in Mumbai rather than Manchester.
They really won't. Outsourcing overseas has proven to be a failure - anyone who has experienced call centre service will know this. I have done a huge amount of work in India and I have tried to use them for outsourcing for IT, accounting and even basic administration and the reality is that they simply don't have the skills. Or I should say they have 'hard' skills but no ability to provide quality service.
That is why the UK is so successful. Goods manufacture can be copied and once copied in most cases can be commoditised to be done by low skilled employees. But services take decades to develop, they require an entire culture as much as a simple transfer of knowledge. I can say with the benefit of a great deal of experience that India's cultural issues (business and general) are going to choke off any real ability of that country to undermine the West in economic performance.
This is why the UK needs to Brexit properly. Germany has an economic model based on the past. Whatever they make, no matter how clever, can be produced just as well and much cheaper by China. But the services that the UK provide cannot be easily replicated and we need to set as an absolute priority giving countries access to our goods market in return for access to their markets for our services. And this can't be done without full control over our trade policy.
Britain Elects from the yougov numbers. Every question asked on the data tables suggests offering 'remain' as a referendum option is popular with comfortably less than half the voters. No wonder Faisal only tweets what he likes.
I think you're getting confused with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
Utterly pathetic. Once again EU trade policy is exposed as nakedly political. Android is free software FFS - if Google want to insist is is bundled with other free software who cares? If you don't like it, buy an iPhone.
All we are seeing is gesture politics from the EU against successful US companies whilst we observe that there are not any EU companies that can actually compete against the likes of Google.
In this case, wasn't it "successful US companies" that made the complaint against Google?
On the lack of European competitors, failing to counter American protectionism does not help but we should also examine what happens to European startups.
Britain Elects from the yougov numbers. Every question asked on the data tables suggests offering 'remain' as a referendum option is popular with comfortably less than half the voters. No wonder Faisal only tweets what he likes.
I think you're getting confusing with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
No, the poll Faisal tweeted about was definitely YouGov. As usual he's been selective with his information in the hope of getting retweets from his cultish FBPE followers.
I think you're getting confused with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
No, the poll Faisal tweeted about who definitely YouGov. As usual he's been selective with his information in the hope of getting retweets from his cultish FBPE followers.
I gave you the figures from the YouGov poll. The number you're quoting comes from a different poll with a different question.
I think you're getting confused with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
No, the poll Faisal tweeted about who definitely YouGov. As usual he's been selective with his information in the hope of getting retweets from his cultish FBPE followers.
I gave you the figures from the YouGov poll. The number you're quoting comes from a different poll with a different question.
I'm actually on the YouGov website looking at the data tables! It clearly says only 36% want a referendum question including Remain as an option. Data taken from past 2 days, so even more recent than that Opinium one. It's the same YouGov that Faisal has selectively taken his info from. So essentially though it seems both the YouGov and Opinium polls show no majority for remain as an option.
I think you're getting confused with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
No, the poll Faisal tweeted about who definitely YouGov. As usual he's been selective with his information in the hope of getting retweets from his cultish FBPE followers.
I gave you the figures from the YouGov poll. The number you're quoting comes from a different poll with a different question.
I'm actually on the YouGov website looking at the data tables! It clearly says only 36% want a referendum question including Remain as an option. Data taken from past 2 days, so even more recent than that Opinium one. It's the same YouGov that Faisal has selectively taken his info from.
So in the space of a few posts you've gone from unanimous opposition, to 25% support, to 36% support (which is 43% removing don't knows)...
The fact that it's same YouGov poll that gives Remain a clear win doesn't strengthen your case.
There is clearly a Brexit gravitational model at work where the further the poster is from the EU, the more relaxed he is about severe economic upheaval as a result of the terms of Brexit departure.
I try my best to avoid making personal comments here, but the most removed of all from the average British person are those working in central London on high six figure salaries protected from EU immigrant competition.
For those people life is brilliant and anything that might disturb that brilliance is an existential threat, whereas for most people a shakeup of the status quo is long overdue and seen as an opportunity for future growth.
In an increasingly globalised world, we're all facing competition from foreigners. Legal and accounting services will be supplied by firms in Mumbai rather than Manchester.
They really won't. Outsourcing overseas has proven to be a failure - anyone who has experienced call centre service will know this. I have done a huge amount of work in India and I have tried to use them for outsourcing for IT, accounting and even basic administration and the reality is that they simply don't have the skills. Or I should say they have 'hard' skills but no ability to provide quality service.
That is why the UK is so successful. Goods manufacture can be copied and once copied in most cases can be commoditised to be done by low skilled employees. But services take decades to develop, they require an entire culture as much as a simple transfer of knowledge. I can say with the benefit of a great deal of experience that India's cultural issues (business and general) are going to choke off any real ability of that country to undermine the West in economic performance.
This is why the UK needs to Brexit properly. Germany has an economic model based on the past. Whatever they make, no matter how clever, can be produced just as well and much cheaper by China. But the services that the UK provide cannot be easily replicated and we need to set as an absolute priority giving countries access to our goods market in return for access to their markets for our services. And this can't be done without full control over our trade policy.
+1
No, not +1. Germany has such a huge surplus that it distorts the whole Eurozone so the idea that making stuff is best left to China is clearly wrong. And be careful with services because a lot can't be traded internationally in any meaningful way such as the gym up the road, and the ones that can, such as bookkeeping or IT, increasingly are.
I think you're getting confused with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
No, the poll Faisal tweeted about who definitely YouGov. As usual he's been selective with his information in the hope of getting retweets from his cultish FBPE followers.
I gave you the figures from the YouGov poll. The number you're quoting comes from a different poll with a different question.
I'm actually on the YouGov website looking at the data tables! It clearly says only 36% want a referendum question including Remain as an option. Data taken from past 2 days, so even more recent than that Opinium one. It's the same YouGov that Faisal has selectively taken his info from.
So in the space of a few posts you've gone from unanimous opposition, to 25% support, to 36% support (which is 43% removing don't knows)...
The fact that it's same YouGov poll that gives Remain a clear win doesn't strengthen your case.
Ok not unanimous but for someone who started out suggesting the majority wanted remain as an option and now seen 2 polls showing they don't then clearly you're a paid up member of the Faisal Islam school of polling.
I think you're getting confused with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
No, the poll Faisal tweeted about who definitely YouGov. As usual he's been selective with his information in the hope of getting retweets from his cultish FBPE followers.
I gave you the figures from the YouGov poll. The number you're quoting comes from a different poll with a different question.
I'm actually on the YouGov website looking at the data tables! It clearly says only 36% want a referendum question including Remain as an option. Data taken from past 2 days, so even more recent than that Opinium one. It's the same YouGov that Faisal has selectively taken his info from.
So in the space of a few posts you've gone from unanimous opposition, to 25% support, to 36% support (which is 43% removing don't knows)...
The fact that it's same YouGov poll that gives Remain a clear win doesn't strengthen your case.
It doesn't give Remain a clear win. It gives it a knife-edge position on the first vote, with the Leave options split, and then a 55-45 lead on reallocations. That's exactly the same as the lead that Populus gave Remain the day before the actual poll in 2016. For Remain to win based on second-preference votes from people who actually want to Leave would be a pretty sketchy mandate.
Been looking at the private rental index today. Zero evidence that landlords can raise rents whenever they want as they continually threaten to do in the face of higher taxes. In London the average rent fell by 0.2%, the first fall since 2010. I hope that when the residential landlords association bangs on about how landlords will just raise rents they are asked why that isn't currently the case. Tbh, it does look as though there has been a minor shift away from landlords towards owner occupiers in the last few months. I think if it continues we may see a significant change by the end of 2022, I'd guess at around 800-900k new owner occupiers. If the government pushes even harder by removing basic rate relief on mortgage interest that figure could be even higher, helping to resolve one of the existential threats to the party (falling home ownership rates).
I'm very disappointed that the many skilled logistics experts here are not celebrating Rolls-Royce making itself less efficient to survive Brexit (see today's Times). Prior to moving growth to Seletar or Dahlewitz. Still employees will be able to use their blue passports to travel to where the business growth is.
I think you're getting confused with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
No, the poll Faisal tweeted about who definitely YouGov. As usual he's been selective with his information in the hope of getting retweets from his cultish FBPE followers.
I gave you the figures from the YouGov poll. The number you're quoting comes from a different poll with a different question.
I'm actually on the YouGov website looking at the data tables! It clearly says only 36% want a referendum question including Remain as an option. Data taken from past 2 days, so even more recent than that Opinium one. It's the same YouGov that Faisal has selectively taken his info from.
So in the space of a few posts you've gone from unanimous opposition, to 25% support, to 36% support (which is 43% removing don't knows)...
The fact that it's same YouGov poll that gives Remain a clear win doesn't strengthen your case.
It doesn't give Remain a clear win. It gives it a knife-edge position on the first vote, with the Leave options split, and then a 55-45 lead on reallocations. That's exactly the same as the lead that Populus gave Remain the day before the actual poll in 2016. For Remain to win based on second-preference votes from people who actually want to Leave would be a pretty sketchy mandate.
Given that Remain got 50% on first preferences, the reallocation is academic.
Also, this is the state of play today and just gives a snapshot of opinion. In a real vote, No Deal wouldn't get anything like this level of support.
I think you're getting confused with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
No, the poll Faisal tweeted about who definitely YouGov. As usual he's been selective with his information in the hope of getting retweets from his cultish FBPE followers.
I gave you the figures from the YouGov poll. The number you're quoting comes from a different poll with a different question.
I'm actually on the YouGov website looking at the data tables! It clearly says only 36% want a referendum question including Remain as an option. Data taken from past 2 days, so even more recent than that Opinium one. It's the same YouGov that Faisal has selectively taken his info from.
So in the space of a few posts you've gone from unanimous opposition, to 25% support, to 36% support (which is 43% removing don't knows)...
The fact that it's same YouGov poll that gives Remain a clear win doesn't strengthen your case.
It doesn't give Remain a clear win. It gives it a knife-edge position on the first vote, with the Leave options split, and then a 55-45 lead on reallocations. That's exactly the same as the lead that Populus gave Remain the day before the actual poll in 2016. For Remain to win based on second-preference votes from people who actually want to Leave would be a pretty sketchy mandate.
That's being entirely disingenuous. The 55-45 is based upon people being given a poll they don't want. The fact is Remain can't even win the argument to have the 2nd referendum let alone to have 'remain' an option in the 2nd referendum and even after all that we're not even sure if they can actually win the said referendum! I guess that wouldn't make such a good tweet though!
There is clearly a Brexit gravitational model at work where the further the poster is from the EU, the more relaxed he is about severe economic upheaval as a result of the terms of Brexit departure.
I try my best to avoid making personal comments here, but the most removed of all from the average British person are those working in central London on high six figure salaries protected from EU immigrant competition.
For those people life is brilliant and anything that might disturb that brilliance is an existential threat, whereas for most people a shakeup of the status quo is long overdue and seen as an opportunity for future growth.
In an increasingly globalised world, we're all facing competition from foreigners. Legal and accounting services will be supplied by firms in Mumbai rather than Manchester.
They really won't. Outsourcing overseas has proven to be a failure - anyone who has experienced call centre service will know this. I have done a huge amount of work in India and I have tried to use them for outsourcing for IT, accounting and even basic administration and the reality is that they simply don't have the skills. Or I should say they have 'hard' skills but no ability to provide quality service.
That is why the UK is so successful. Goods manufacture can be copied and once copied in most cases can be commoditised to be done by low skilled employees. But services take decades to develop, they require an entire culture as much as a simple transfer of knowledge. I can say with the benefit of a great deal of experience that India's cultural issues (business and general) are going to choke off any real ability of that country to undermine the West in economic performance.
This is why the UK needs to Brexit properly. Germany has an economic model based on the past. Whatever they make, no matter how clever, can be produced just as well and much cheaper by China. But the services that the UK provide cannot be easily replicated and we need to set as an absolute priority giving countries access to our goods market in return for access to their markets for our services. And this can't be done without full control over our trade policy.
Sounds like a British Motorcycle manufacturer in the Sixties.
Been looking at the private rental index today. Zero evidence that landlords can raise rents whenever they want as they continually threaten to do in the face of higher taxes. In London the average rent fell by 0.2%, the first fall since 2010. I hope that when the residential landlords association bangs on about how landlords will just raise rents they are asked why that isn't currently the case. Tbh, it does look as though there has been a minor shift away from landlords towards owner occupiers in the last few months. I think if it continues we may see a significant change by the end of 2022, I'd guess at around 800-900k new owner occupiers. If the government pushes even harder by removing basic rate relief on mortgage interest that figure could be even higher, helping to resolve one of the existential threats to the party (falling home ownership rates).
You know when you hear of these stories of some kid advertising their party on Facebook and ends up with photo of them looking sad in front of a trashed house..
Princess Eugenie has invited 1,200 members of the public into the grounds of Windsor Castle for her wedding later this year.
Been looking at the private rental index today. Zero evidence that landlords can raise rents whenever they want as they continually threaten to do in the face of higher taxes. In London the average rent fell by 0.2%, the first fall since 2010. I hope that when the residential landlords association bangs on about how landlords will just raise rents they are asked why that isn't currently the case. Tbh, it does look as though there has been a minor shift away from landlords towards owner occupiers in the last few months. I think if it continues we may see a significant change by the end of 2022, I'd guess at around 800-900k new owner occupiers. If the government pushes even harder by removing basic rate relief on mortgage interest that figure could be even higher, helping to resolve one of the existential threats to the party (falling home ownership rates).
Good to see you back off the naughty step Max,
Lol, thanks. Apologies to everyone for my language last week. Lesson learned, don't post drunk after watching England lose.
In the light of this morning's conversation about a new party, this is quite an interesting quote from Soubry's Today programme interview:
“I personally would abandon the Labour frontbench and I would reach beyond it and I would encompass Plaid Cymru, the SNP and other sensible, pragmatic people who believe in putting this country’s interests first and foremost,” she said.
The willingness to talk to the SNP - perhaps she's already done so? - changes the maths.
A loose alliance of (let's say) the new Centre party, the LibDems, Plaid and the SNP would be fighting the next election with 150 incumbents. Retaining at least half of those would seem plausible and I suspect they could hope to do much, much better.
There's the question of how toxic the SNP is to English voters. My sense is that centrists are less offended by it than the extremes of either main party, so an alliance may not offend that many of the Centre party's potential voters - but that's just supposition. (And of course there's a few LD/SNP battlegrounds and an LD/Plaid one, which probably rules out a formal alliance but not a loose understanding. I could see a Centre party deciding not to fight in Scotland at all.)
All good points. I also think that Soubry has the right adjectives too. It would be a government of national unity to begin with. So you start with sensible MPs from all parties joining to put forward a moderate Brexit programme. They then vote no confidence in May and ask the queen to allow them to form a government. The formation of the new party follows on from that.
It sounds like what the country needs.
It is what the country needs, but it is unlikely that the country will get it, as all those from Lab or Con would be most likely deselected. they would be signing the end of their Parliamentary careers, unless they also had the maths to change the electoral system during what remains of the fixed term parliament
There is clearly a Brexit gravitational model at work where the further the poster is from the EU, the more relaxed he is about severe economic upheaval as a result of the terms of Brexit departure.
I try my best to avoid making personal comments here, but the most removed of all from the average British person are those working in central London on high six figure salaries protected from EU immigrant competition.
For those people life is brilliant and anything that might disturb that brilliance is an existential threat, whereas for most people a shakeup of the status quo is long overdue and seen as an opportunity for future growth.
In an increasingly globalised world, we're all facing competition from foreigners. Legal and accounting services will be supplied by firms in Mumbai rather than Manchester.
They really won't. Outsourcing overseas has proven to be a failure - anyone who has experienced call centre service will know this. I have done a huge amount of work in India and I have tried to use them for outsourcing for IT, accounting and even basic administration and the reality is that they simply don't have the skills. Or I should say they have 'hard' skills but no ability to provide quality service.
That is why the UK is so successful. Goods manufacture can be copied and once copied in most cases can be commoditised to be done by low skilled employees. But services take decades to develop, they require an entire culture as much as a simple transfer of knowledge. I can say with the benefit of a great deal of experience that India's cultural issues (business and general) are going to choke off any real ability of that country to undermine the West in economic performance.
This is why the UK needs to Brexit properly. Germany has an economic model based on the past. Whatever they make, no matter how clever, can be produced just as well and much cheaper by China. But the services that the UK provide cannot be easily replicated and we need to set as an absolute priority giving countries access to our goods market in return for access to their markets for our services. And this can't be done without full control over our trade policy.
I think you're getting confused with an entirely different poll from Opinium which asked a different question.
No, the poll Faisal tweeted about who definitely YouGov. As usual he's been selective with his information in the hope of getting retweets from his cultish FBPE followers.
I gave you the figures from the YouGov poll. The number you're quoting comes from a different poll with a different question.
I'm actually on the YouGov website looking at the data tables! It clearly says only 36% want a referendum question including Remain as an option. Data taken from past 2 days, so even more recent than that Opinium one. It's the same YouGov that Faisal has selectively taken his info from. So essentially though it seems both the YouGov and Opinium polls show no majority for remain as an option.
This why referenda are so toxic - there are about a dozen ways of presenting that data depending on the bias you wish to apply to it. If there were to be another referendum (which I don't think the political class will ever allow), it should be Remain, EEA or hard Brexit with a transferable vote. The wisdom of the crowd would probably go EEA with considerable majority would be my biased guess
I'd have thought the chaos that has been caused by the last referendum will, almost certainly, have put the UK body politic off plebiscites for a VERY VERY long time.
The only way I can see another referendum happening is if May manages (somehow) to cobble together another BRINO fudge despite already having painted herself into a corner with landmines, and then the Mogglodytes and Labour vote it down.
In a situation like that May might be forced to offer a referendum to break the deadlock.
But even then she'd probably be super-wary, because it wouldn't be clear what it would mean if the UK rejected her deal. This is a serious problem with referendums, they're too blunt an instrument for divining British attitudes on complex policy matters.
Please, no more referendums. If Parliament is to get us into a constitutional crisis (as it now seems pretty certain to do) then Parliament can damn well get us out of it again.
I'm getting a bit tired of We, the People having to bail out our leaders for being too incompetent to do their sodding jobs.
I'm very disappointed that the many skilled logistics experts here are not celebrating Rolls-Royce making itself less efficient to survive Brexit (see today's Times). Prior to moving growth to Seletar or Dahlewitz. Still employees will be able to use their blue passports to travel to where the business growth is.
I can not read The Times. Are they moving production? Dahlewitz has been making the Trent XWB since early 2017. Or are they moving Certification for EASA purposes that means the Engines made in Derby are compliant, as they have announced a few months ago?
Looks like currystar took the BBC's incorrectly reported figure instead of the source.
Edit: Could be my confusion between CPIH and some other CPI.
The correct source further enhances my point. Does anyone think that the Government should get any credit for this incredible economic performance or is this performance absolutely nothing to do with the Government ?
On a like for like 1970s basis unemployment would still be circa 2 million before applying the many 'adjustments' made in the 1980s & 1990s.. RPI inflation at over 3% is comparable to the 1960s and the mid-1980s.
I cant see real unemployment where someone actually wants a job being anywhere near 2 million. There are currently hundreds if thousands of job vacancies in the UK. We have been permanently advertising for people here for the last year and get no applications. On the industrial estate where I work just about every business has job vacancy signs on their entrance. I have never ever known anything like this.
But several hundred thousand are underemployed - yet removed from the register because they work more than 16 hours per week. Many others have been coerced by the DWP to declare themselves 'self employed' but earn peanuts.
The ONS disagrees with you here. The vast majority of the growth in employment since 2010 has been full time work.
But that does not contradict my point at all. The fact that most new jobs are full time - and permanent - does not alter the fact that hundreds of thousands of people are forced to work partime - and/or on a temporary basis!
Your knowledge of the motives of thousands of people is astounding not the less so as it backs up your basic narrative. We are all in awe.
I think its the complete lack of evidence presented on his part that is most awe inspiring.
Been looking at the private rental index today. Zero evidence that landlords can raise rents whenever they want as they continually threaten to do in the face of higher taxes. In London the average rent fell by 0.2%, the first fall since 2010. I hope that when the residential landlords association bangs on about how landlords will just raise rents they are asked why that isn't currently the case. Tbh, it does look as though there has been a minor shift away from landlords towards owner occupiers in the last few months. I think if it continues we may see a significant change by the end of 2022, I'd guess at around 800-900k new owner occupiers. If the government pushes even harder by removing basic rate relief on mortgage interest that figure could be even higher, helping to resolve one of the existential threats to the party (falling home ownership rates).
Been looking at the private rental index today. Zero evidence that landlords can raise rents whenever they want as they continually threaten to do in the face of higher taxes. In London the average rent fell by 0.2%, the first fall since 2010. I hope that when the residential landlords association bangs on about how landlords will just raise rents they are asked why that isn't currently the case. Tbh, it does look as though there has been a minor shift away from landlords towards owner occupiers in the last few months. I think if it continues we may see a significant change by the end of 2022, I'd guess at around 800-900k new owner occupiers. If the government pushes even harder by removing basic rate relief on mortgage interest that figure could be even higher, helping to resolve one of the existential threats to the party (falling home ownership rates).
Good to see you back off the naughty step Max,
Afternoon GIN
Apologies for my previous outburst, Malc. I think I was about 8 pints in at that point.
Been looking at the private rental index today. Zero evidence that landlords can raise rents whenever they want as they continually threaten to do in the face of higher taxes. In London the average rent fell by 0.2%, the first fall since 2010. I hope that when the residential landlords association bangs on about how landlords will just raise rents they are asked why that isn't currently the case. Tbh, it does look as though there has been a minor shift away from landlords towards owner occupiers in the last few months. I think if it continues we may see a significant change by the end of 2022, I'd guess at around 800-900k new owner occupiers. If the government pushes even harder by removing basic rate relief on mortgage interest that figure could be even higher, helping to resolve one of the existential threats to the party (falling home ownership rates).
Good to see you back off the naughty step Max,
Lol, thanks. Apologies to everyone for my language last week. Lesson learned, don't post drunk after watching England lose.
I never read it max , decided not to go on the net for a couple of days , after England's defeat in the semi final.Good to see you back.
There is clearly a Brexit gravitational model at work where the further the poster is from the EU, the more relaxed he is about severe economic upheaval as a result of the terms of Brexit departure.
I try my best to avoid making personal comments here, but the most removed of all from the average British person are those working in central London on high six figure salaries protected from EU immigrant competition.
For those people life is brilliant and anything that might disturb that brilliance is an existential threat, whereas for most people a shakeup of the status quo is long overdue and seen as an opportunity for future growth.
In an increasingly globalised world, we're all facing competition from foreigners. Legal and accounting services will be supplied by firms in Mumbai rather than Manchester.
They really won't. Outsourcing overseas has proven to be a failure - anyone who has experienced call centre service will know this. I have done a huge amount of work in India and I have tried to use them for outsourcing for IT, accounting and even basic administration and the reality is that they simply don't have the skills. Or I should say they have 'hard' skills but no ability to provide quality service.
That is why the UK is so successful. Goods manufacture can be copied and once copied in most cases can be commoditised to be done by low skilled employees. But services take decades to develop, they require an entire culture as much as a simple transfer of knowledge. I can say with the benefit of a great deal of experience that India's cultural issues (business and general) are going to choke off any real ability of that country to undermine the West in economic performance.
This is why the UK needs to Brexit properly. Germany has an economic model based on the past. Whatever they make, no matter how clever, can be produced just as well and much cheaper by China. But the services that the UK provide cannot be easily replicated and we need to set as an absolute priority giving countries access to our goods market in return for access to their markets for our services. And this can't be done without full control over our trade policy.
Sounds like a British Motorcycle manufacturer in the Sixties.
Spot-on. The idea that offshore outsourcers cannot provide quality service is laughable. Obviously not all do, but the same is true for on-shore outsourcing and insourced solutions too.
Corbyn was also told about the child sexual abuse scandal by Dr Liz Davies as early as 1991, and did nothing.
Arguably that was legally correct, as he had no direct responsibility in the matter. However, one speech from him condemning it could have blown the coverup sky high, potentially saving several children from molestation.
That's why I'm struggling to see the difference between the two.
I did not know that. Both as bad as each other then. Those who know but say nothing are responsible for evil continuing, as someone once said.
There’s no case yet for a referendum. There’s no real evidence that public opinion has changed much since the last referendum.
However, there are straws in the wind that it might be on the move a bit. Something to watch.
There's an event horizon of around three hours on UK politics at the moment.
May's people clearly hope that the febrile atmosphere will cool over August when Parliament and the EU are sunning it in their Dachas, but I suspect such hopes will be entirely foolish.
Unless and until somebody offers a plausible route around a constitutional crisis and possible economic ruin, nobody is likely to calm down one tiny bit.
And let's be clear, such a way out of the woods is unlikely to come from May.
This has the potential to backfire hugely on JC if La Hodge dredges up every single example - and there are many - of JC attending conferences where anti-semitism is on the agenda, being photographed with anti-semites, speaking at rallies where threats are issued against Jews, those Facebook pages etc etc. It could be like those libel cases where the person wins - on a technicality - but their character is shown up and in a way which does not do them any favours.
Whether she will do so is another matter. And, unfortunately, for Corbyn supporters, Corbyn could be shown wearing Nazi uniform reading Der Sturmer and his crowd would still say that this doesn't prove anti-semitism and/or that it is being used to attack him.
Plus not enough voters care. But it is nonetheless deeply dispiriting.
Miss Cyclefree, it's an interesting suggestion. However, the far right is far more readily condemned in this country than the far left. Corbyn's been marching with the hammer and sickle, Stalin and Lenin banners for years. It doesn't get nearly the censure it deserves.
Paisley Jnr's absence when it comes to 'ping pong' could prove crucial re-several of the ammendments voted on Monday given that both Cable and Farron will be sure to vote next time. The 3 vote margins would become ties!
Paisley Jnr's absence when it comes to 'ping pong' could prove crucial re-several of the ammendments voted on Monday given that both Cable and Farron will be sure to vote next time. The 3 vote margins would become ties!
Paisley Jnr's absence when it comes to 'ping pong' could prove crucial re-several of the ammendments voted on Monday given that both Cable and Farron will be sure to vote next time. The 3 vote margins would become ties!
Swinson too.
Pairing usually breaks down in parliaments where the government has slim to no majorities.
I have to admit I'm slightly surprised it's taken this long for pairing to begin to crumble.
Paisley Jnr's absence when it comes to 'ping pong' could prove crucial re-several of the ammendments voted on Monday given that both Cable and Farron will be sure to vote next time. The 3 vote margins would become ties!
Swinson too.
I believe Swinson was paired on Monday. No suggestion of cheating.
Paisley Jnr's absence when it comes to 'ping pong' could prove crucial re-several of the ammendments voted on Monday given that both Cable and Farron will be sure to vote next time. The 3 vote margins would become ties!
Swinson too.
I believe Swinson was paired on Monday. No suggestion of cheating.
Been looking at the private rental index today. Zero evidence that landlords can raise rents whenever they want as they continually threaten to do in the face of higher taxes. In London the average rent fell by 0.2%, the first fall since 2010. I hope that when the residential landlords association bangs on about how landlords will just raise rents they are asked why that isn't currently the case. Tbh, it does look as though there has been a minor shift away from landlords towards owner occupiers in the last few months. I think if it continues we may see a significant change by the end of 2022, I'd guess at around 800-900k new owner occupiers. If the government pushes even harder by removing basic rate relief on mortgage interest that figure could be even higher, helping to resolve one of the existential threats to the party (falling home ownership rates).
Good to see you back off the naughty step Max,
Afternoon GIN
Apologies for my previous outburst, Malc. I think I was about 8 pints in at that point.
LOL, no problem Max , as you know I was just baiting. I was a bit surprised at your comeback. I had a few myself by that time.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edict_of_Expulsion
https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1019550672717598720
£10 in 2010 money is £12.50 these days so you'd need to have had a 25% pay rise from 2010 to be breaking even - and of course that's just on CPI. So ignoring rocketing house prices.
Perhaps he is struggling to decide which of his two speeches to deliver.
He fails to mention that the poll shows the public are unanimously against offering 'remain' as an option in the event of a future referendum.
Corbyn was also told about the child sexual abuse scandal by Dr Liz Davies as early as 1991, and did nothing.
Arguably that was legally correct, as he had no direct responsibility in the matter. However, one speech from him condemning it could have blown the coverup sky high, potentially saving several children from molestation.
That's why I'm struggling to see the difference between the two.
That is why the UK is so successful. Goods manufacture can be copied and once copied in most cases can be commoditised to be done by low skilled employees. But services take decades to develop, they require an entire culture as much as a simple transfer of knowledge. I can say with the benefit of a great deal of experience that India's cultural issues (business and general) are going to choke off any real ability of that country to undermine the West in economic performance.
This is why the UK needs to Brexit properly. Germany has an economic model based on the past. Whatever they make, no matter how clever, can be produced just as well and much cheaper by China. But the services that the UK provide cannot be easily replicated and we need to set as an absolute priority giving countries access to our goods market in return for access to their markets for our services. And this can't be done without full control over our trade policy.
That means that as we head into the final few months of Article 50, we have a polarised population, one half of which is betting the house on a nihilist stand of defiance. It can only end when one side wins the argument decisively, and there is only one side that is able to to that.
I'd say pretty unanimous Scott. Seems like you've joined Faisal on the fake news bandwagon
They would soon a) be ex-portacabins; and b) need a 6-month roulement battallion positioned around it.
Or rather, I couldn't until now.
The anti-semitism row has the potential to splinter the party. If Corbyn persists in this absolute tone-deaf treatment, and uses the machinery of the party to silence those who disagree with him, then it becomes increasingly difficult for those who disagree to silently put up with it.
All we are seeing is gesture politics from the EU against successful US companies whilst we observe that there are not any EU companies that can actually compete against the likes of Google.
36% support the three way referendum idea, or 43% removing don't knows. 49% support the idea of a referendum on the deal.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vv29cv0a94/TimesResults_SecondRef_180717_w.pdf
On the lack of European competitors, failing to counter American protectionism does not help but we should also examine what happens to European startups.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1018422232534732800
The fact that it's same YouGov poll that gives Remain a clear win doesn't strengthen your case.
based on illegality and micro targetingwhich is totally bombproofAlso, this is the state of play today and just gives a snapshot of opinion. In a real vote, No Deal wouldn't get anything like this level of support.
Princess Eugenie has invited 1,200 members of the public into the grounds of Windsor Castle for her wedding later this year.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-44873759
The only way I can see another referendum happening is if May manages (somehow) to cobble together another BRINO fudge despite already having painted herself into a corner with landmines, and then the Mogglodytes and Labour vote it down.
In a situation like that May might be forced to offer a referendum to break the deadlock.
But even then she'd probably be super-wary, because it wouldn't be clear what it would mean if the UK rejected her deal. This is a serious problem with referendums, they're too blunt an instrument for divining British attitudes on complex policy matters.
Please, no more referendums. If Parliament is to get us into a constitutional crisis (as it now seems pretty certain to do) then Parliament can damn well get us out of it again.
I'm getting a bit tired of We, the People having to bail out our leaders for being too incompetent to do their sodding jobs.
However, there are straws in the wind that it might be on the move a bit. Something to watch.
May's people clearly hope that the febrile atmosphere will cool over August when Parliament and the EU are sunning it in their Dachas, but I suspect such hopes will be entirely foolish.
Unless and until somebody offers a plausible route around a constitutional crisis and possible economic ruin, nobody is likely to calm down one tiny bit.
And let's be clear, such a way out of the woods is unlikely to come from May.
Polling on the Chequers Deal and other stuff from the Dorset Tory association.
Edit click on the tweet to see more questions and their answers.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/18/sweden-calls-for-help-as-arctic-circle-hit-by-wildfires
This has the potential to backfire hugely on JC if La Hodge dredges up every single example - and there are many - of JC attending conferences where anti-semitism is on the agenda, being photographed with anti-semites, speaking at rallies where threats are issued against Jews, those Facebook pages etc etc. It could be like those libel cases where the person wins - on a technicality - but their character is shown up and in a way which does not do them any favours.
Whether she will do so is another matter. And, unfortunately, for Corbyn supporters, Corbyn could be shown wearing Nazi uniform reading Der Sturmer and his crowd would still say that this doesn't prove anti-semitism and/or that it is being used to attack him.
Plus not enough voters care. But it is nonetheless deeply dispiriting.
Miss Cyclefree, it's an interesting suggestion. However, the far right is far more readily condemned in this country than the far left. Corbyn's been marching with the hammer and sickle, Stalin and Lenin banners for years. It doesn't get nearly the censure it deserves.
"John Zak Woodcock[2] (born 14 October 1978)[3] is a closet Tory who has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Barrow and Furness since 2010."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Woodcock_(politician)
I have to admit I'm slightly surprised it's taken this long for pairing to begin to crumble.
The Good Ship Maybot and her flotilla of Mogglodyte tugs are going over the Brexit falls with the entire country in tow.
I'm looking forward to it.
Make the plebs suffer for voting for economic ruin. That's democracy folk.
It'll destroy the reputations of so many leavers permanently, like the appeasers of the 1930s.
Big if but it's there for the taking if they fancy it. If not, then as @TSE notes, it's a damp squib.