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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited July 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

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  • Options
    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    First!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited July 2018
    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited July 2018
    A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory.......

    Should we therefore be surprised when the bounder Brandon Lewis is found with his fingers in the till?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    There is also increasing pressure from various groups within Labour to support a second referendum, not only from the trade unions but also from people closer to Corbyn.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1019696453445406724
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    Roger said:

    A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory.......

    Should we therefore be surprised when the bounder Brandon Lewis is found with his fingers in the till?

    I thought for a moment you meant the party leaders, and I was going to say I didn't think either Corbyn or Cable would be flattered by your description of them...especially as technically neither of them are public schoolboys.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    The Umunnites still haven't fully dealt with the realisation that smug urban liberal elites have fallen out of fashion in Labour ranks, have they?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    Roger said:

    A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory.......

    Should we therefore be surprised when the bounder Brandon Lewis is found with his fingers in the till?

    Is there not some HoC sanction for such deception?
  • Options
    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    williamglenn said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    There is also increasing pressure from various groups within Labour to support a second referendum, not only from the trade unions but also from people closer to Corbyn.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1019696453445406724
    Mr Zarb-Cousin is clearly well placed to know what motivates Leavers.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RoyalBlue said:


    Mr Zarb-Cousin is clearly well placed to know what motivates Leavers.

    But he is the cousin of ZARB
    ZARB knows all
    BOW DOWN TO ZARB
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    RoyalBlue said:

    williamglenn said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    There is also increasing pressure from various groups within Labour to support a second referendum, not only from the trade unions but also from people closer to Corbyn.

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1019696453445406724
    Mr Zarb-Cousin is clearly well placed to know what motivates Leavers.
    Even the most staunch Leavers have impure thoughts about second referendums from time to time. ;)
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    edited July 2018
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    How many seats did CON gain from LAB which had voted REMAIN in 2017 ?

    I do agree with you that insofar as votes in a General Election are concerned, Brexit has much less traction for Labour voters than Tories. We forget that in many northern Labour seats, a sizable number of WWC voters always voted Tory or later UKIP.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Roger said:

    A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory...

    What is this some kind of a joke?

    [sorry someone had to do it]
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1019989269824393216
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    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1019989269824393216

    A Momentum is gathering steam. No pun intended.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    surby said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1019989269824393216

    A Momentum is gathering steam. No pun intended.
    Only among people who lost the first time round
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory...

    What is this some kind of a joke?

    [sorry someone had to do it]
    You say you have met an MP and an honest person...
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Charles said:

    surby said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1019989269824393216

    A Momentum is gathering steam. No pun intended.
    Only among people who lost the first time round
    But we are the majority now.........
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1019992665180471297
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited July 2018
    My concern with a second referendum is that it validates the utter dysfunction of Parliament and May's idiotic strategy.

    I want May and her omnishambolic cabinet to own their 55-car-pile-up-on-the-M25 of a negotiation, and a second referendum gives them a get-out-of-jail-free card.

    NO.
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    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1019989269824393216

    No chance of that backfiring is there....
  • Options
    OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    In the run up to the euRef Corbyn campaigned consistently on a "Remain but Reform" platform. Unfortunately, there was a virtual media blackout on his activities at the time and it took some time to actually find any reports, until I found one at the end of a particularly anti Corbyn article in the normally pro Labour Mirror. There seemed to be more on his holiday taken (3 day weekend away) about a month before the vote (although I did wonder what holidays were taken over that period by that hard-working PM Cameron. LOL! ).
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,287
    Brexit will surely have to be delayed. No responsible government should stick with this 'aggressive timeline' when so much time has been used up just bickering. There's no shame in it. The government kept delaying the roll-out of IDS's universal credit, did it not? Brexit is far more important, so they can be flexible.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Brexit will surely have to be delayed. No responsible government should stick with this 'aggressive timeline'

    We haven't had a responsible Government since the referendum
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.

    If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.

    The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    If that is her plan - by accident or design - it is some plan !
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    It's good to know that Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf is alive and well and still causing harmless merriment over appalling tragedies.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1019995913006264321
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1019992665180471297

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1019989269824393216

    About as much of a surprise from the Economist as the remainer FT highlighting the Momentum referendum push or even Times journo Sam Coates making the most of his pairing story.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1019992665180471297

    George Osborne’s always good for a unattributed quote, I see.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    surby said:

    Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.

    If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.

    The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.

    It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbyn
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    surby said:

    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    If that is her plan - by accident or design - it is some plan !
    Remember that May will get what she wants in the end; the challenge as always is to work out what on Earth it might be that she wants.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single market
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    It's quite possible that May will in the end be forced to offer another referendum but this is because she has no other way out of the dilemma into which she has boxed herself. The idea that it is all part of grand strategy is a little far fetched IMO!
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.

    If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.

    The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.

    It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbyn
    You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.

    Here it is:

    https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    grabcocque said:

    The Umunnites still haven't fully dealt with the realisation that smug urban liberal elites have fallen out of fashion in Labour ranks, have they?

    Fascinating article by Chuka in the Evening Standard tonight in which he is absolutely contemptuous about Corbyn and his failure to support staying in the single market and back a 'people's vote' on the final deal. He is as scathing about the Labour leadership as he is about the government and Tory Brexiteers and Labour Leave rebels
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/we-must-be-brave-enough-to-give-the-people-a-final-say-on-any-brexit-deal-a3891246.html?amp
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    Rubbish, May would be overthrown in a no confidence vote in days if she tried that and most likely replaced by Boris on a hard Brexit platform
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single market
    Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    Rubbish, May would be overthrown in a no confidence vote in days if she tried that and most likely replaced by Boris on a hard Brexit platform
    Remember that Boris is talking about another 2 years of negotiations so he's proposing to sign the withdrawal agreement including the backstop.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/zachjourno/status/1019997827467022336
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    ......Sarah Montague questioning Simon Jacques BBC business editor about the possibility of a no-deal during the lunchtime news He said big business and small think this is "absolutely catastrophic" and he explains why.

    Whether the news will spread to the nail bars of Hartlepool I don't know but it sounded terrifying. (From 22 mins onward)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b9v6yr
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1019995913006264321

    The country is divided between those who think we should have Christmas and turkeys upset we voted to have Christmas.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1020003817981730817
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The country is divided between those who think we should have Christmas and turkeys upset we voted to have Christmas.

    You're going to eat Remainers?

    Seems harsh, but once the food riots start, I guess...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/zachjourno/status/1019997827467022336

    Not exactly the most rebellious of MPs.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1020005152915369984
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited July 2018
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single market
    Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.
    Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labour
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    Rubbish, May would be overthrown in a no confidence vote in days if she tried that and most likely replaced by Boris on a hard Brexit platform
    Remember that Boris is talking about another 2 years of negotiations so he's proposing to sign the withdrawal agreement including the backstop.
    That still ends those negotiations well before the 2022 general election
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    They emigrate?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    A third vote, "this time we mean it!"
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    Rubbish, May would be overthrown in a no confidence vote in days if she tried that and most likely replaced by Boris on a hard Brexit platform
    Remember that Boris is talking about another 2 years of negotiations so he's proposing to sign the withdrawal agreement including the backstop.
    That still ends those negotiations well before the 2022 general election
    Having signed the backstop, if he wants to pursue a hard Brexit it will mean betraying the DUP, so you might find the election comes much sooner...
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,359
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1019989269824393216

    Disregarding the rights and wrongs of a second referendum, calling it a 'Peopl's Vote' is daft. How is this one any more of a "people's" vote than last time?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited July 2018
    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.

    If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.

    The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.

    It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbyn
    You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.

    Here it is:

    https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
    Nope you clearly know nothing about it. Corbyn on staying in the single market after the Leave vote (not before when he campaigned for Remain for party unity with his fingers crossed behind his back) 'it would hold the UK back'. The delusion of some Labour figures still thinking Corbyn has really changed his anti EEC/anti EU views going back 35 years is hilarious

    https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/jeremy-corbyn-single-market-hold-uk-back/
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Cookie said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1019989269824393216

    Disregarding the rights and wrongs of a second referendum, calling it a 'Peopl's Vote' is daft. How is this one any more of a "people's" vote than last time?
    Well we leavers are sub-human scum after all. :smiley:
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,560
    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    We leave. With or without a deal, dependent on the detail of the vote.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1020005981584060416
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    edited July 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1020005981584060416

    I think it is fair to say the Chief Whip is getting a thrashing.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    They emigrate?
    One must hope not. With all those Leavers already there, Abroad would get uncomfortably crowded.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single market
    Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.
    Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labour
    But many of those 2015 voters had supported UKIP as an anti-establishment NOTA option not directly related to Brexit at all. Corbyn connected with them - on issues such as austerity - in a way that Ed Milliband was unable to do. The idea that the 2017 election was about Brexit is pure fantasy.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    Exactly. What are the arguments that a new "Remain" campaign would use to convince Leave voters? As of now, it seems like they would just repeat the same stuff from last time, louder, with a subtext of "you were bloody idiots last time, now put it right".

    Honestly, in a way, I have more respect for people who advocate politicians just ignoring the referendum result.... atleast they would actually get to where they want in the end, as incredibly patronising as they are towards Brexit voters. Whereas the "People's Vote" lot are just as patronising but also too stupid/naive to realise that their route wouldn't work and would just be a waste of everyone's time.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,572
    Cookie said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1019989269824393216

    Disregarding the rights and wrongs of a second referendum, calling it a 'Peopl's Vote' is daft. How is this one any more of a "people's" vote than last time?
    Because it researches a heck of a lot better than “Second Referendum”....just like SINDYRef2....
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    grabcocque said:

    The Umunnites still haven't fully dealt with the realisation that smug urban liberal elites have fallen out of fashion in Labour ranks, have they?

    This.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    AlastairMeeks said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    They emigrate?
    One must hope not. With all those Leavers already there, Abroad would get uncomfortably crowded.
    It's OK, Hungary is a bit niche for most.....
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,572
    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    Best of five, and so on until the stupid proles do their betters’ bidding...
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1020005981584060416

    With all the news channels now leading with Tories not only being incompetent but also cheats I'm starting to feel sorry for them.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    edited July 2018
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single market
    Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.
    Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labour
    But many of those 2015 voters had supported UKIP as an anti-establishment NOTA option not directly related to Brexit at all. Corbyn connected with them - on issues such as austerity - in a way that Ed Milliband was unable to do. The idea that the 2017 election was about Brexit is pure fantasy.
    Unusual for me to say this, but I fully agree with Justin. In fact, the key to Corbyn's success in 2017 was that he fought it on domestic issues - tuition fees, education, the NHS, public spending, end of life care, and he fought it cunningly and well based on appealing to voters in Labour seats and a few swing seats.

    He did of course tell straightforward and implausible lies on all of those, but May was too busy talking about a hard Brexit to notice that actually, people did like the idea of massive amounts of money dropping into their pockets for nothing in return.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1020005981584060416

    I think it is fair to say the Chief Whip is getting a thrashing.
    UKIP website wishes Conservatives harm?
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1020005981584060416

    I think it is fair to say the Chief Whip is getting a thrashing.
    UKIP website wishes Conservatives harm?
    They're hounding him.

    (I wonder if anyone will get that pun.)
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    ydoethur said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1020005981584060416

    I think it is fair to say the Chief Whip is getting a thrashing.
    UKIP website wishes Conservatives harm?
    They're hounding him.

    (I wonder if anyone will get that pun.)
    I thought it was a Jeremy Thorpe pun at first....
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.

    If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.

    The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.

    It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbyn
    You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.

    Here it is:

    https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
    Nope you clearly know nothing about it. Corbyn on staying in the single market after the Leave vote (not before when he campaigned for Remain for party unity with his fingers crossed behind his back) 'it would hold the UK back'. The delusion of some Labour figures still thinking Corbyn has really changed his anti EEC/anti EU views going back 35 years is hilarious

    https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/jeremy-corbyn-single-market-hold-uk-back/
    I doubt Corbyn has changed his shirt in 35 years....
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Benpointer said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    We leave. With or without a deal, dependent on the detail of the vote.
    CarlottaVance said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    Best of five, and so on until the stupid proles do their betters’ bidding...
    Problems will be found. The BBC was biased. Russia interfered. Etc etc
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2018
    AlastairMeeks said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    They emigrate?
    One must hope not. With all those Leavers already there, Abroad would get uncomfortably crowded.
    I, for one, will go down with the HMS UK ship, come what may.

    It's nice to see people consoling themselves with the thought of a second referendum though. Bless.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.

    If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.

    The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.

    It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbyn
    You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.

    Here it is:

    https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
    If knowledge of the subject were a requirement for posting, he'd have a lot more spare time.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    edited July 2018
    Danny565 said:

    ydoethur said:

    matt said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1020005981584060416

    I think it is fair to say the Chief Whip is getting a thrashing.
    UKIP website wishes Conservatives harm?
    They're hounding him.

    (I wonder if anyone will get that pun.)
    I thought it was a Jeremy Thorpe pun at first....
    No, that would have been they're dogging him as his career disappears down the bunny hole...

    Edit - I know nobody will believe me, but the double entendre in the last two words was unintentional!
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    WhisperingOracle said:

    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.
    May's dismissal of it sounded shrill and defensive, i.e. it's not happening under my leadership but as soon as I've done my public duty to the country, I'll step down and you can have one.

    By definition, if she's playing a long game, it won't be obvious until it's checkmate. I have my doubts but William G seems to think this is happening.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Benpointer said:

    Roger said:

    A Leaver a Public Schoolboy and a Tory.......

    Should we therefore be surprised when the bounder Brandon Lewis is found with his fingers in the till?

    Is there not some HoC sanction for such deception?
    Yes he could be blackballed from every bar restaurant and bridge club in the place
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:

    a) May's eventual deal and

    b) no deal.

    The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.

    Almost.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    WhisperingOracle said:

    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.
    It would not be an escape hatch it would guarantee a Corbyn win through Tory to UKIP defections
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    No you have just proved my point, so thanks. Why did Corbyn gain those Tory Leave marginals? As he promised to back Brexit and leave the single market
    Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.
    Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labour
    But many of those 2015 voters had supported UKIP as an anti-establishment NOTA option not directly related to Brexit at all. Corbyn connected with them - on issues such as austerity - in a way that Ed Milliband was unable to do. The idea that the 2017 election was about Brexit is pure fantasy.
    They voted for Brexit and UKIP to cut immigration then for Corbyn to cut austerity as he promised to respect their LEAVE vote and leave the single market
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_P said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The country is divided between those who think we should have Christmas and turkeys upset we voted to have Christmas.

    You're going to eat Remainers?

    Seems harsh, but once the food riots start, I guess...
    There's more protein on them than babies.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    rural_voter said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.
    May's dismissal of it sounded shrill and defensive, i.e. it's not happening under my leadership but as soon as I've done my public duty to the country, I'll step down and you can have one.

    By definition, if she's playing a long game, it won't be obvious until it's checkmate. I have my doubts but William G seems to think this is happening.
    Yes. Perfect for her. She stays in charge, then can hand it all over.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,800
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1020005152915369984

    8. If it ain't hurting, it ain't working.

    First Cuckoo of the post-Brexit spring, I'll vouch.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    MarqueeMark said:

    If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:

    a) May's eventual deal and

    b) no deal.

    The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.

    Almost.

    The ERG are successfully working to reduce the chances of a deal, and are consolidating their influence over the Tory parlamentary party. That means the probably more likely options are status quo ante, or no deal.
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    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    MarqueeMark said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    HYUFD said:

    surby said:

    Let's face it, a second vote will happen since this is the only way for us to get out of this awful mess.

    If people still insists on Leaving than Remaining in the EU, good luck to them.

    The Freedom of Movement will work in the opposite direction. Heathrow desperately will need a third runway but it can't be that soon.

    It won't happen as most Tory MPs oppose it as does Corbyn
    You know sweet FA about the Labour Party. It is time you stopped parroting something which you know is not correct.

    Here it is:

    https://labourlist.org/2016/04/europe-needs-to-change-but-i-am-voting-to-stay-corbyns-full-speech-on-the-eu/
    Nope you clearly know nothing about it. Corbyn on staying in the single market after the Leave vote (not before when he campaigned for Remain for party unity with his fingers crossed behind his back) 'it would hold the UK back'. The delusion of some Labour figures still thinking Corbyn has really changed his anti EEC/anti EU views going back 35 years is hilarious

    https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/jeremy-corbyn-single-market-hold-uk-back/
    I doubt Corbyn has changed his shirt in 35 years....
    Well actually he's smartened up considerably. I think perhaps there's a metaphor there, in waiting, for his political views too.

    His increased attention to laundry clearly wasn't his own work. With the appropriate degree of heavy ironing we'll make a Tory of him yet.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    WhisperingOracle said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:

    a) May's eventual deal and

    b) no deal.

    The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.

    Almost.

    The ERG are successfully working to reduce the chances of a deal, and are consolidating their influence over the Tory parlamentary party. That means the probably more likely options are status quo ante, or no deal.
    Correct. And this is what remainers are aiming for, they hope to use the ERG to destroy any hope of a deal and then effectively have a rerun of the 2016 referendum and get a different result. And that strategy looks sound at the moment.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    MarqueeMark said:

    If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:

    a) May's eventual deal and

    b) no deal.

    The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.

    Almost.

    We don’t have a Syriza government.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2018
    I agree with @rkrkrk on this whole ‘people’s vote’ idea - I wouldn’t be remotely surprised to see Leave win again. That would kill off Remain for a generation. If you want us back in the EU after Brexit, that’s not exactly ideal.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    williamglenn said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    If there is a second referendum, it will have two options:

    a) May's eventual deal and

    b) no deal.

    The irony of Remainers flocking to the polling stations to prevent no deal - and thereby voting to implement Brexit - is so delicious I'm almost tempted.

    Almost.

    We don’t have a Syriza government.
    We have a Theresa government.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,504
    ydoethur said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour's position will of course not shift unless Umunna replaces Corbyn as Labour leader.

    Corbyn has made clear on numerous occasions he is committed to Brexit and ideologically opposed to the single market as it will render his nationalisation plans redundant. Corbyn also knows he needs to win Labour and Tory marginal seats which voted Leave to become PM given the majority of current Tory Remain voters still would not touch him with a bargepole and those Leave marginals will not accept reversing Brexit or leaving free movement in place. So the odds are we will still Brexit next March

    That's a red herring. LAB gained more CON seats which had voted Leave than CON Remain seats at GE2017. Post-election polling found that Brexit was much less of an issue for LAB voters than CON ones.
    N
    Not so - he gained those seats because he succeeded in connecting with voters by raising issues which were far more salient than Brexit.
    Nope, had Corbyn committed to reverse Brexit and stay in the single market and keep free movement Labour would have failed to gain marginal Tory Leave seats like Peterborough, Bury North, Stockton South and Vale of Clwyd they only won because of 2015 UKIP voters switching to Labour
    But many of those 2015 voters had supported UKIP as an anti-establishment NOTA option not directly related to Brexit at all. Corbyn connected with them - on issues such as austerity - in a way that Ed Milliband was unable to do. The idea that the 2017 election was about Brexit is pure fantasy.
    Unusual for me to say this, but I fully agree with Justin. In fact, the key to Corbyn's success in 2017 was that he fought it on domestic issues - tuition fees, education, the NHS, public spending, end of life care, and he fought it cunningly and well based on appealing to voters in Labour seats and a few swing seats.

    He did of course tell straightforward and implausible lies on all of those, but May was too busy talking about a hard Brexit to notice that actually, people did like the idea of massive amounts of money dropping into their pockets for nothing in return.
    Justin is spot on. May wanted a Brexit election, but Jezza fought on other turf, on generational inequality and austerity. Last year's election was for a population bored of Brexit, which is a large part of why the Lib Dems flopped, along with Tories and UKIP.

    I suspect that this was accident rather than design, but Jezza is simply not that bothered about Brexit as an issue.
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    anothernick said:



    Correct. And this is what remainers are aiming for, they hope to use the ERG to destroy any hope of a deal and then effectively have a rerun of the 2016 referendum and get a different result. And that strategy looks sound at the moment.

    It's not a terrible strategy but it has two massive wildcards: May's erratic behaviour and a febrile electorate clearly willing to watch the world burn.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited July 2018
    If there were a fresh referendum, I might well abstain. Remaining in the EU while the country is split essentially in two would be unhealthy on both sides. Only if the matter would be decisively settled would it be worth having a new vote.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,905
    Benpointer said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    We leave. With or without a deal, dependent on the detail of the vote.
    Risking no deal/hard Brexit for a (40%, 30%???) shot at reversing the result is a bad idea.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Apartheid in Israel. Who would have guessed? You can understand why Jeremy might find it easier to walk through the eye of a needle than comment on Netanyahu's Likud government and stay on the right side of the IRHA's definition of antisemitism
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    AlastairMeeks said:

    If there were a fresh referendum, I might well abstain. Remaining in the EU while the country is split essentially in two would be unhealthy on both sides. Only if the matter would be decisively settled would it be worth having a new vote.

    I don't see why people are so eager to let Parliament off the hook.

    This Parliament was elected, just over a year ago, and over 2/3rds of the seats went to parties that promised:

    * To leave the European Union
    * To negotiate a deal that ensured friction-free trade with the European Union

    There is NO EXCUSE for a Parliament where 2/3rds of the members were elected on the same platform to be so inexcusably dysfunctional.

    And it's not our job as the electorate to bail them out. We elected you, now DO THE JOB YOU WERE ELECTED TO DO.

    And if you fail, we will exact our vengeance at the next election.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    WhisperingOracle said:

    williamglenn said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The chances of Brexit not happening are rising, the more dysfunctional the government becomes. The chances of no-deal Brexit are also rising for the same reason. Yes is still a value bet but it now takes nerve where previously it looked obvious.

    May is on the brink of pulling off the most spectacular feat of political leadership for many decades. She has marginalised the Hard Brexiteers and will now pulverise support for No Deal. The Chequers plan will stand as a straw-man version of the best possible Brexit that works in theory but will never need to be put into practice because she will offer people the chance to Remain and they will take it with both hands.
    Yes - whether by accident or design. There are just too many aligned interests for it not to happen. Momentum wants another vote. The Tories want an escape hatch that doesn't hand power to Corbyn. The pressure will mount over the coming months. A key underreported point to notice over the last week is that for the first time, the government felt the need to *rule out* a second referendum, unconvincingly. This means the idea is gaining traction - and if it happens, it will be final.
    May has to be willing to jettison 75% of Conservative voters and members to frustrate Brexit.

    That's quite a gamble.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rkrkrk said:

    Benpointer said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Have any of the People's vote advocates got a plan for what happens if Leave wins a second time?

    We leave. With or without a deal, dependent on the detail of the vote.
    Risking no deal/hard Brexit for a (40%, 30%???) shot at reversing the result is a bad idea.
    No deal might be the fastest resolution of the disaster. Leavers would have no hiding place and xenophobic isolation would be brought into disrepute. It would cause a lot of pain and misery, but fortunately that would be disproportionately felt by the groups that voted for Brexit.

    That said, it would probably also lead to a hard left government in the short term, so “fastest” has to be understood to be a matter of decades rather than months.
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