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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Video Analysis: How Bad Is The US-China Trade Deficit?

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  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    Foxy said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    @rcs1000 points out that trade deficit is caused by low savings rate. If Britons save rather than consume then the imbalance will resolve.
    Sadly the government is quite happy for people to keep on spending, in the short term, further fuelled by PPI compensation from the banks and money being unlocked early from pension savings
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839
    edited August 2018

    107 isn't looking too shabby a score now....

    Well we passed it only four down, and have upped the run rate - sounds like we might be trying to finish this today with an eye on the expected crap weather Sunday and Monday. Declare on about 250, three overs before tea.

    Draw out to 5.4 now, time to back it again?
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    Nigelb said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    The deficit with Germany is about £30bn on trade without services. This is in my view not healthy. I disagree with the video. We need to address it.
    As neither British governments nor the British people have shown any inclination to live within their means then the UK requires a lower exchange rate.

    Firstly to reduce consumption of imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.

    Secondly to make British produced goods and services more affordable in other countries.
    But German goods ARE artificially cheap due to the Euro of course.
    But probably not here, after our devaluation gets finished.

    My favourite Germany story this week:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45150298
    “German police save man from baby squirrel terror”....
    These squirrels aren't always as cuddly and cute as we might think....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-36792959
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,691

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    The deficit with Germany is about £30bn on trade without services. This is in my view not healthy. I disagree with the video. We need to address it.
    As neither British governments nor the British people have shown any inclination to live within their means then the UK requires a lower exchange rate.

    Firstly to reduce consumption of imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.

    Secondly to make British produced goods and services more affordable in other countries.
    But German goods ARE artificially cheap due to the Euro of course.
    Which is leading to economic imbalances throughout Europe.

    And as the Germans are unwilling to provide the financial transfers the Southern European countries then transfer people to the Northern European countries.
    Whatever the Germans do, we can do too, I think. We don't have aspire to be Greece. Leavers lack any ambition
  • Options

    Scott_P said:
    This story looks more shaky than others...but regardless even if it was true, Jezza the terrorist sympathizer is not news and totally factored in. There seems to be a large proportion of the country who are willing to give him a pass on the fact him and McDonnell have snuggled up up to terrorists for the past 40 years.

    Where as nick an offensive joke out the Guardian about burkas and you are the main news story for the next 7 days.
    Corbyn is a Hamas supporter. Abbott believes white people love their children less. Siddiq has campaigned for a government that kills students. But that doesn't matter as much as Tory jokes apparently.

    This is the brainwashed multiculturalism cult we live in.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    The deficit with Germany is about £30bn on trade without services. This is in my view not healthy. I disagree with the video. We need to address it.
    As neither British governments nor the British people have shown any inclination to live within their means then the UK requires a lower exchange rate.

    Firstly to reduce consumption of imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.

    Secondly to make British produced goods and services more affordable in other countries.
    But German goods ARE artificially cheap due to the Euro of course.
    Which is leading to economic imbalances throughout Europe.

    And as the Germans are unwilling to provide the financial transfers the Southern European countries then transfer people to the Northern European countries.
    Whatever the Germans do, we can do too, I think. We don't have aspire to be Greece. Leavers lack any ambition
    You can aspire to be whatever you want but the reality is that during the last decade the UK has had a current account deficit of over £700bn.

    Deal with reality.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,691

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,336
    Buttler goes... can Ashwin hang on to his top scorer of the match tag ?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Well we know why Jezza won't adopt the full internationally recognized definition of anti-Semitism...

    Jeremy Corbyn has likened Israel’s actions in the West Bank to the Second World War Nazi occupation of Europe, a comparison that breaches the international definition of anti-Semitism.

    Speaking at the Palestinian Return Centre in 2013, the Labour leader, then a backbench MP, said many would recognise the state of affairs Palestinians were under in the West Bank as being similar to those “who suffered occupation during the Second World War”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/10/corbyn-likened-israels-west-bank-actions-nazi-occupation-europe/

    Yes, that is the problem. Jezza's 2013 speech breaches the 2016 IHRA definition (which btw Labour adopted most of before the Conservatives) as does a whole bunch of stuff other Corbynites have said.

    The zeitgeist changed. Nazi comparisons used to be popular but no longer. Most of us here will have heard jokes that management should hang the slogan Arbeit Macht Frei at the entrance to our workplace. It was also common to compare Germany or the EU with the Nazis, and at least one Cabinet minister did so in the run-up to Brexit.

    But we are where we are and Corbyn is trapped by his past.
  • Options
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Sell more stuff other people want.

    That takes about five seconds to type.

    Try creating some wealth and you'll find its a lot harder to do than making glib comments on an internet forum.

    Whatever wealth this country creates, the government and people will want to consume more.

    Until we're willing to live within our means our problems will continue.

    And only when we start living within our means and so need to create more wealth if we are to consume more wealth will we start to take decisions on investment and education and training and affordable housing seriously.
  • Options

    Well we know why Jezza won't adopt the full internationally recognized definition of anti-Semitism...

    Jeremy Corbyn has likened Israel’s actions in the West Bank to the Second World War Nazi occupation of Europe, a comparison that breaches the international definition of anti-Semitism.

    Speaking at the Palestinian Return Centre in 2013, the Labour leader, then a backbench MP, said many would recognise the state of affairs Palestinians were under in the West Bank as being similar to those “who suffered occupation during the Second World War”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/10/corbyn-likened-israels-west-bank-actions-nazi-occupation-europe/

    Yes, that is the problem. Jezza's 2013 speech breaches the 2016 IHRA definition (which btw Labour adopted most of before the Conservatives) as does a whole bunch of stuff other Corbynites have said.

    The zeitgeist changed. Nazi comparisons used to be popular but no longer. Most of us here will have heard jokes that management should hang the slogan Arbeit Macht Frei at the entrance to our workplace. It was also common to compare Germany or the EU with the Nazis, and at least one Cabinet minister did so in the run-up to Brexit.

    But we are where we are and Corbyn is trapped by his past.
    If he had actually taken this stuff seriously from the get go, he wouldn't have been.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.....
    Even for Tories who aren’t disturbed by racist dog whistles, that ought to give them pause.
    That’s what I was thinking when this Boris Burka row came about. Corbyn’s issues have received much less coverage since that row arose. That alone should have Tories upset.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839
    edited August 2018

    Well we know why Jezza won't adopt the full internationally recognized definition of anti-Semitism...

    Jeremy Corbyn has likened Israel’s actions in the West Bank to the Second World War Nazi occupation of Europe, a comparison that breaches the international definition of anti-Semitism.

    Speaking at the Palestinian Return Centre in 2013, the Labour leader, then a backbench MP, said many would recognise the state of affairs Palestinians were under in the West Bank as being similar to those “who suffered occupation during the Second World War”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/10/corbyn-likened-israels-west-bank-actions-nazi-occupation-europe/

    Yes, that is the problem. Jezza's 2013 speech breaches the 2016 IHRA definition (which btw Labour adopted most of before the Conservatives) as does a whole bunch of stuff other Corbynites have said.

    The zeitgeist changed. Nazi comparisons used to be popular but no longer. Most of us here will have heard jokes that management should hang the slogan Arbeit Macht Frei at the entrance to our workplace. It was also common to compare Germany or the EU with the Nazis, and at least one Cabinet minister did so in the run-up to Brexit.

    But we are where we are and Corbyn is trapped by his past.
    If he had actually taken this stuff seriously from the get go, he wouldn't have been.
    I like that some people think it was somehow okay to compare Israel to Nazi Germany, as long as they did it before 2016.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.....
    Even for Tories who aren’t disturbed by racist dog whistles, that ought to give them pause.
    That’s what I was thinking when this Boris Burka row came about. Corbyn’s issues have received much less coverage since that row arose. That alone should have Tories upset.
    Unless you are CCHQ worrying Corbyn is getting a bit close to the Spiral of Doom, and want to keep him in place......
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
    The number of people who remember Munich, grasp the details and will be sufficiently butthurt over JC's veneration of the perpetrators to not vote Labour over it is zero.
    Labour down to 35% in the latest Yougov. LDs up to 10%
    Any thoughts on Labour going back down below 30 % within the next year or two?
    Could happen, nothing can be 100% ruled out. ICM are showing Labour on 40% in their most recent poll though and it’s anyone’s guess as to which poll is right.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    Well we know why Jezza won't adopt the full internationally recognized definition of anti-Semitism...

    Jeremy Corbyn has likened Israel’s actions in the West Bank to the Second World War Nazi occupation of Europe, a comparison that breaches the international definition of anti-Semitism.

    Speaking at the Palestinian Return Centre in 2013, the Labour leader, then a backbench MP, said many would recognise the state of affairs Palestinians were under in the West Bank as being similar to those “who suffered occupation during the Second World War”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/10/corbyn-likened-israels-west-bank-actions-nazi-occupation-europe/

    Yes, that is the problem. Jezza's 2013 speech breaches the 2016 IHRA definition (which btw Labour adopted most of before the Conservatives) as does a whole bunch of stuff other Corbynites have said.

    The zeitgeist changed. Nazi comparisons used to be popular but no longer. Most of us here will have heard jokes that management should hang the slogan Arbeit Macht Frei at the entrance to our workplace. It was also common to compare Germany or the EU with the Nazis, and at least one Cabinet minister did so in the run-up to Brexit.

    But we are where we are and Corbyn is trapped by his past.
    If he had actually taken this stuff seriously from the get go, he wouldn't have been.
    I like that some people think it was somehow okay to compare Israel to Nazi Germany, as long as they did it before 2016.
    There are things that used to be considered acceptable which now are not. Is that such a hard concept?
  • Options

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.....
    Even for Tories who aren’t disturbed by racist dog whistles, that ought to give them pause.
    That’s what I was thinking when this Boris Burka row came about. Corbyn’s issues have received much less coverage since that row arose. That alone should have Tories upset.
    Unless you are CCHQ worrying Corbyn is getting a bit close to the Spiral of Doom, and want to keep him in place......
    Corbyn is staying in place no matter what though. It’s not like the membership are going to be swayed by any of these stories: they weren’t between 2015-17.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Interestingly (well, maybe) I can now post via the site itself. That wasn't working for me for the last day or two, though Vanilla was.

    See the BBC Politics page still hasn't noticed the Corbyn story.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839

    Sandpit said:

    Well we know why Jezza won't adopt the full internationally recognized definition of anti-Semitism...

    Jeremy Corbyn has likened Israel’s actions in the West Bank to the Second World War Nazi occupation of Europe, a comparison that breaches the international definition of anti-Semitism.

    Speaking at the Palestinian Return Centre in 2013, the Labour leader, then a backbench MP, said many would recognise the state of affairs Palestinians were under in the West Bank as being similar to those “who suffered occupation during the Second World War”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/10/corbyn-likened-israels-west-bank-actions-nazi-occupation-europe/

    Yes, that is the problem. Jezza's 2013 speech breaches the 2016 IHRA definition (which btw Labour adopted most of before the Conservatives) as does a whole bunch of stuff other Corbynites have said.

    The zeitgeist changed. Nazi comparisons used to be popular but no longer. Most of us here will have heard jokes that management should hang the slogan Arbeit Macht Frei at the entrance to our workplace. It was also common to compare Germany or the EU with the Nazis, and at least one Cabinet minister did so in the run-up to Brexit.

    But we are where we are and Corbyn is trapped by his past.
    If he had actually taken this stuff seriously from the get go, he wouldn't have been.
    I like that some people think it was somehow okay to compare Israel to Nazi Germany, as long as they did it before 2016.
    There are things that used to be considered acceptable which now are not. Is that such a hard concept?
    Not at all, but it’s never been acceptable to compare people to Nazis.

    Should Corbyn come out and say that he did think Israel were like Nazis in 2013, but he’s since had a change of mind and doesn’t think so any more?
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Another day, another corbyn story. Why so many of them in silly season? I guess political wonks need something to keep us occupied in the summer, so it's like throwing on an old sitcom while hoping the new stuff come September will be decent.

    Sky all over this story this morning.

    I think the MSM are like a dog with a bone when they see a story that makes waves and they are not going to let this go anytime soon. Boris ill judged remarks must have the conservative leadership pulling their hair out by interrupting the implosion of Corbyn and his cabal this summer
    Sure, but they've been dogs with bones before. Until his core are shaken it's just a meaningless repeat. The prediction someone made that he might row back on the definition business because of this seems reasonable, and that will mean his less bold critics will dial it back again
    Nothing will change his core's loyalty. But the core will not see him elected.

    I do believe we are past peak Corbyn and he is really damaging the labour brand now
    The number of people who remember Munich, grasp the details and will be sufficiently butthurt over JC's veneration of the perpetrators to not vote Labour over it is zero.
    Labour down to 35% in the latest Yougov. LDs up to 10%
    Any thoughts on Labour going back down below 30 % within the next year or two?
    The fun and games comes with the certainty to vote dropping. Not sure how polling is going to reflect people going from 8-9 likelihood of voting Labour to 4-5. They won't vote anyone else - but are getting far more likely to not vote at all than vote for an anti-semite tolerant, Brexit-facilitating Jeremy Corbyn.
    But they voted for that same Corbyn last year. I distinctly remember the antisemitism scandal having been such a problem then, it even came up during the leaders QT during the GE. That didn’t make those people not vote Corbyn. Corbyn was facilitating Brexit back then as well, and those people were still backing him. I mean the 2016 leadership challenge literally happened in part because Corbyn wasn’t seen as being strong enough against Leave. Something new has to arise in order to change these people’s minds, and nothing new about Corbyn has really come about since last June. None of these Corbyn stories, like the one in the Mail really surprise me.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Interestingly (well, maybe) I can now post via the site itself. That wasn't working for me for the last day or two, though Vanilla was.

    See the BBC Politics page still hasn't noticed the Corbyn story.

    Has it been pre-programmed to screen out dodgy F1 tips, then? ;)
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Interestingly (well, maybe) I can now post via the site itself. That wasn't working for me for the last day or two, though Vanilla was.

    See the BBC Politics page still hasn't noticed the Corbyn story.

    Go to the Daily Mail web site and see how long it takes you to find the Corbyn story, even though it was the front page of the print edition.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    The deficit with Germany is about £30bn on trade without services. This is in my view not healthy. I disagree with the video. We need to address it.
    As neither British governments nor the British people have shown any inclination to live within their means then the UK requires a lower exchange rate.

    Firstly to reduce consumption of imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.

    Secondly to make British produced goods and services more affordable in other countries.
    But German goods ARE artificially cheap due to the Euro of course.
    Which is leading to economic imbalances throughout Europe.

    And as the Germans are unwilling to provide the financial transfers the Southern European countries then transfer people to the Northern European countries.
    Whatever the Germans do, we can do too, I think. We don't have aspire to be Greece. Leavers lack any ambition
    LOL.

    The story of British Euroscepticism is all about ambition.

    Who would have thought that Jimmy Goldsmith’s ambition would be secured by 2016, against the establishment of:

    All major political parties
    The Government and civil service
    The BoE
    The majority of media commentators
    The twittersphere

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.....
    Even for Tories who aren’t disturbed by racist dog whistles, that ought to give them pause.
    That’s what I was thinking when this Boris Burka row came about. Corbyn’s issues have received much less coverage since that row arose. That alone should have Tories upset.
    Yes, plenty of Conservatives are not happy that many of their own kept the story running all week. Boris is best just ignored by everyone.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    Mortimer said:

    We’re going to be leaving the customs union, after a decent transition, it is the only workable solution.

    The Prime Minister doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Chancellor doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Foreign Secretary doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. Even Jacob Rees-Mogg doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. A majority of people want to remain in the European Union full stop.

    Yet you think the only workable solution is to spend years leaving the customs union. Are you quite mad? It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is over.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    edited August 2018
    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    The deficit with Germany is about £30bn on trade without services. This is in my view not healthy. I disagree with the video. We need to address it.
    As neither British governments nor the British people have shown any inclination to live within their means then the UK requires a lower exchange rate.

    Firstly to reduce consumption of imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.

    Secondly to make British produced goods and services more affordable in other countries.
    But German goods ARE artificially cheap due to the Euro of course.
    Which is leading to economic imbalances throughout Europe.

    And as the Germans are unwilling to provide the financial transfers the Southern European countries then transfer people to the Northern European countries.
    Whatever the Germans do, we can do too, I think. We don't have aspire to be Greece. Leavers lack any ambition
    LOL.

    The story of British Euroscepticism is all about ambition.

    Who would have thought that Jimmy Goldsmith’s ambition would be secured by 2016, against the establishment of:

    All major political parties
    The Government and civil service
    The BoE
    The majority of media commentators
    The twittersphere

    The utter paucity of their ambition is laid bare in that post. You think winning a vote was an achievement. Leavers treat the whole thing as a football match and treat the 2016 referendum as their World Cup. In fact a vote is all it was, and all you've achieved is to expose the underlying emptiness of your vision to the world.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839
    edited August 2018

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.....
    Even for Tories who aren’t disturbed by racist dog whistles, that ought to give them pause.
    That’s what I was thinking when this Boris Burka row came about. Corbyn’s issues have received much less coverage since that row arose. That alone should have Tories upset.
    Yes, plenty of Conservatives are not happy that many of their own kept the story running all week. Boris is best just ignored by everyone.
    I think a lot of Tory MPs are terrified of Boris winning a leadership election. I don’t think the Tories will make the mistake of Labour moderates and nominate Boris to ‘widen the debate.’ I think they’ll know from his time at the foreign office that he’s not suited to being PM. I can see Raab being a dark horse.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited August 2018

    Mortimer said:

    We’re going to be leaving the customs union, after a decent transition, it is the only workable solution.

    The Prime Minister doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Chancellor doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Foreign Secretary doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. Even Jacob Rees-Mogg doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. A majority of people want to remain in the European Union full stop.

    Yet you think the only workable solution is to spend years leaving the customs union. Are you quite mad? It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is over.
    No it looks like the Chequers Deal or a variant of it will be the Brexit deal and secure Brexit for good.

    On the latest polling May could also remain Tory leader until the next general election in 2022 and win a narrow majority against Corbyn securing Brexit on the Chequers Deal terms and killing off talk of reversing Brexit and a second EU referendum albeit also doing the same for hard Brexit as well
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well we know why Jezza won't adopt the full internationally recognized definition of anti-Semitism...

    Jeremy Corbyn has likened Israel’s actions in the West Bank to the Second World War Nazi occupation of Europe, a comparison that breaches the international definition of anti-Semitism.

    Speaking at the Palestinian Return Centre in 2013, the Labour leader, then a backbench MP, said many would recognise the state of affairs Palestinians were under in the West Bank as being similar to those “who suffered occupation during the Second World War”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/10/corbyn-likened-israels-west-bank-actions-nazi-occupation-europe/

    Yes, that is the problem. Jezza's 2013 speech breaches the 2016 IHRA definition (which btw Labour adopted most of before the Conservatives) as does a whole bunch of stuff other Corbynites have said.

    The zeitgeist changed. Nazi comparisons used to be popular but no longer. Most of us here will have heard jokes that management should hang the slogan Arbeit Macht Frei at the entrance to our workplace. It was also common to compare Germany or the EU with the Nazis, and at least one Cabinet minister did so in the run-up to Brexit.

    But we are where we are and Corbyn is trapped by his past.
    If he had actually taken this stuff seriously from the get go, he wouldn't have been.
    I like that some people think it was somehow okay to compare Israel to Nazi Germany, as long as they did it before 2016.
    There are things that used to be considered acceptable which now are not. Is that such a hard concept?
    Not at all, but it’s never been acceptable to compare people to Nazis.

    Should Corbyn come out and say that he did think Israel were like Nazis in 2013, but he’s since had a change of mind and doesn’t think so any more?
    It is never acceptable to compare people to Nazis. True. Nick Ridley was sacked by Mrs Thatcher for it back in the day. Boris was promoted to Foreign Secretary after comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Different strokes.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Ms. Apocalypse, I largely agree, though last time Corbyn benefited quite a bit from everyone assuming he had no chance. Next time, the media might offer harder questions than "Will you keep your allotment?" and the Conservatives might manage to put together a manifesto that doesn't decimate (or worse) their support.

    Mr. B2, you bounder, you cad, you rogue, you rapscallion!

    Just because your comment is founded on a fundamentally correct summary of recent history does not make it in any way acceptable.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    But they voted for that same Corbyn last year. I distinctly remember the antisemitism scandal having been such a problem then, it even came up during the leaders QT during the GE. That didn’t make those people not vote Corbyn. Corbyn was facilitating Brexit back then as well, and those people were still backing him. I mean the 2016 leadership challenge literally happened in part because Corbyn wasn’t seen as being strong enough against Leave. Something new has to arise in order to change these people’s minds, and nothing new about Corbyn has really come about since last June. None of these Corbyn stories, like the one in the Mail really surprise me.

    But Theresa May - Theresa May!! - still beat him, after the worst Manifesto and campaign in the history of politics. As long as he is still there, then Labour can be beaten again, by some Tory (any Tory?) having a less shite campaign.

    And I suspect many Remainer Labour-voters didn't think, when the chips were down, just how MUCH Corbyn would facilitate Brexit.....
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Mortimer said:

    We’re going to be leaving the customs union, after a decent transition, it is the only workable solution.

    The Prime Minister doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Chancellor doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Foreign Secretary doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. Even Jacob Rees-Mogg doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. A majority of people want to remain in the European Union full stop.

    Yet you think the only workable solution is to spend years leaving the customs union. Are you quite mad? It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is over.
    You really didn’t notice that referendum result, did you?

    I wouldn’t be questioning the sanity of others, if I were you.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Mortimer said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    The deficit with Germany is about £30bn on trade without services. This is in my view not healthy. I disagree with the video. We need to address it.
    As neither British governments nor the British people have shown any inclination to live within their means then the UK requires a lower exchange rate.

    Firstly to reduce consumption of imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.

    Secondly to make British produced goods and services more affordable in other countries.
    But German goods ARE artificially cheap due to the Euro of course.
    Which is leading to economic imbalances throughout Europe.

    And as the Germans are unwilling to provide the financial transfers the Southern European countries then transfer people to the Northern European countries.
    Whatever the Germans do, we can do too, I think. We don't have aspire to be Greece. Leavers lack any ambition
    LOL.

    The story of British Euroscepticism is all about ambition.

    Who would have thought that Jimmy Goldsmith’s ambition would be secured by 2016, against the establishment of:

    All major political parties
    The Government and civil service
    The BoE
    The majority of media commentators
    The twittersphere

    The utter paucity of their ambition is laid bare in that post. You think winning a vote was an achievement. Leavers treat the whole thing as a football match and treat the 2016 referendum as their World Cup. In fact a vote is all it was, and all you've achieved is to expose the underlying emptiness of your vision to the world.
    Still smarting from your failure to campaign in the referendum, much?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    HYUFD said:

    On the latest polling May could also remain Tory leader until the next general election in 2022 and win a narrow majority against Corbyn securing Brexit on the Chequers Deal terms and killing off talk of reversing Brexit and a second EU referendum albeit also doing the same for hard Brexit as well

    The lesson is that May can betray Brexit and still win. And there's plenty more betrayal to come.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    We’re going to be leaving the customs union, after a decent transition, it is the only workable solution.

    The Prime Minister doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Chancellor doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Foreign Secretary doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. Even Jacob Rees-Mogg doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. A majority of people want to remain in the European Union full stop.

    Yet you think the only workable solution is to spend years leaving the customs union. Are you quite mad? It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is over.
    No it looks like the Chequers Deal or a variant of it will be the Brexit deal and secure Brexit for good.

    On the latest polling May could also remain Tory leader until the next general election in 2022 and win a narrow majority against Corbyn securing Brexit on the Chequers Deal terms and killing off talk of reversing Brexit and a second EU referendum albeit also doing the same for hard Brexit as well
    Yet on the polling just a while back, Chequers was dead.

    Don't you see the shortcomings of posting each day as if the medium term future were being cast in stone by the latest short-term poll?
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.

    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    It is an empirical question. If the world is getting smaller than the inverse law (or gravity model) should break down. Is it? Maybe one of the pb City gurus knows, or we must inundate RCS with video requests. But I fear that even if it is easier than it used to be to trade with, say, Thailand, it will still be easier for us to trade with France and Ireland and for Thailand to trade with India and China. I'm no great fan of the EU but geography is what it is.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,152
    TOPPING said:
    + 1

    Or indeed the difference between what a politician chooses to do of their own free will as a backbencher and what the Head of State is obliged to do on the advice of her government in order to bring about closure.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    We’re going to be leaving the customs union, after a decent transition, it is the only workable solution.

    The Prime Minister doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Chancellor doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Foreign Secretary doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. Even Jacob Rees-Mogg doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. A majority of people want to remain in the European Union full stop.

    Yet you think the only workable solution is to spend years leaving the customs union. Are you quite mad? It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is over.
    No it looks like the Chequers Deal or a variant of it will be the Brexit deal and secure Brexit for good.

    On the latest polling May could also remain Tory leader until the next general election in 2022 and win a narrow majority against Corbyn securing Brexit on the Chequers Deal terms and killing off talk of reversing Brexit and a second EU referendum albeit also doing the same for hard Brexit as well
    Yet on the polling just a while back, Chequers was dead.

    Don't you see the shortcomings of posting each day as if the medium term future were being cast in stone by the latest short-term poll?
    Rhetorical question of the day award :)
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Sell more stuff other people want.

    That takes about five seconds to type.

    Try creating some wealth and you'll find its a lot harder to do than making glib comments on an internet forum.

    Whatever wealth this country creates, the government and people will want to consume more.

    Until we're willing to live within our means our problems will continue.

    And only when we start living within our means and so need to create more wealth if we are to consume more wealth will we start to take decisions on investment and education and training and affordable housing seriously.
    Your last sentence is a non sequitur though you probably think it makes sense.

    How about "Only when we start to take decisions on investment and education and training and affordable housing seriously will we create the extra wealth that will enable us to live within our means"?

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well we know why Jezza won't adopt the full internationally recognized definition of anti-Semitism...

    Jeremy Corbyn has likened Israel’s actions in the West Bank to the Second World War Nazi occupation of Europe, a comparison that breaches the international definition of anti-Semitism.

    Speaking at the Palestinian Return Centre in 2013, the Labour leader, then a backbench MP, said many would recognise the state of affairs Palestinians were under in the West Bank as being similar to those “who suffered occupation during the Second World War”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/08/10/corbyn-likened-israels-west-bank-actions-nazi-occupation-europe/

    Yes, that is the problem. Jezza's 2013 speech breaches the 2016 IHRA definition (which btw Labour adopted most of before the Conservatives) as does a whole bunch of stuff other Corbynites have said.

    The zeitgeist changed. Nazi comparisons used to be popular but no longer. Most of us here will have heard jokes that management should hang the slogan Arbeit Macht Frei at the entrance to our workplace. It was also common to compare Germany or the EU with the Nazis, and at least one Cabinet minister did so in the run-up to Brexit.

    But we are where we are and Corbyn is trapped by his past.
    If he had actually taken this stuff seriously from the get go, he wouldn't have been.
    I like that some people think it was somehow okay to compare Israel to Nazi Germany, as long as they did it before 2016.
    There are things that used to be considered acceptable which now are not. Is that such a hard concept?
    Not at all, but it’s never been acceptable to compare people to Nazis.

    Should Corbyn come out and say that he did think Israel were like Nazis in 2013, but he’s since had a change of mind and doesn’t think so any more?
    It is never acceptable to compare people to Nazis. True. Nick Ridley was sacked by Mrs Thatcher for it back in the day. Boris was promoted to Foreign Secretary after comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Different strokes.
    Boris’ words were in a wider context, but I agree it was the wrong thing for him to say. He’s unfit for high office, and the PM gave him enough rope to hang himself.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    We’re going to be leaving the customs union, after a decent transition, it is the only workable solution.

    The Prime Minister doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Chancellor doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Foreign Secretary doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. Even Jacob Rees-Mogg doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. A majority of people want to remain in the European Union full stop.

    Yet you think the only workable solution is to spend years leaving the customs union. Are you quite mad? It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is over.
    You are fixated in your view but it is a long way from being over much as you and many would like
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    edited August 2018

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.

    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    It is an empirical question. If the world is getting smaller than the inverse law (or gravity model) should break down. Is it? Maybe one of the pb City gurus knows, or we must inundate RCS with video requests. But I fear that even if it is easier than it used to be to trade with, say, Thailand, it will still be easier for us to trade with France and Ireland and for Thailand to trade with India and China. I'm no great fan of the EU but geography is what it is.
    Of course geography plays a role. In my business, I find it is easier to get a book from London to CA than London to Rome or London to Madrid. Though I’m guessing this is because of cultural norms/trade volumes/business processes.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
  • Options
    MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    Incorrect. The campaign to leave's main plank was to put more into the NHS.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    F1: suggestion on Twitter that Alonso's future will be announced on Tuesday.

    Doubtful he's off to Red Bull but would rather like that.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    There were only two key parts of the campaign to leave the EU: spunking more money on the NHS and xenophobic lies.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    Incorrect. The campaign to leave's main plank was to put more into the NHS.
    I’m pretty sure the main plank was to LEAVE...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    edited August 2018
    Cyclefree said:



    TOPPING said:
    + 1

    Or indeed the difference between what a politician chooses to do of their own free will as a backbencher and what the Head of State is obliged to do on the advice of her government in order to bring about closure.
    Yep. Or the difference between a State using back channels with its adversary to try to bring about a settlement, and an MP meeting with and supporting the State's adversary.
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Nice and cool today. I'll give the video a look when I'm a bit more awake.

    That Corbyn story looks horrendous. We'll see how much airtime it gets compared to Boris and the burka.

    Boris and the burka story is terrible for the Tories. Firstly, it allows the thicker Labour supporters to point at the Conservatives and say: "Look, you're just as bad!". Secondly, it diverts media attention away from the mire that Corbyn has led the Labour party into.

    He's interrupted the enemy making a mistake. Deliberately.....
    Even for Tories who aren’t disturbed by racist dog whistles, that ought to give them pause.
    That’s what I was thinking when this Boris Burka row came about. Corbyn’s issues have received much less coverage since that row arose. That alone should have Tories upset.
    Yes, plenty of Conservatives are not happy that many of their own kept the story running all week. Boris is best just ignored by everyone.
    I think a lot of Tory MPs are terrified of Boris winning a leadership election. I don’t think the Tories will make the mistake of Labour moderates and nominate Boris to ‘widen the debate.’ I think they’ll know from his time at the foreign office that he’s not suited to being PM. I can see Raab being a dark horse.
    Boris is not equipped to be PM.

    I do not think his comments this week were at all racist as many opposing him do, but this misspeak is one of many that show his unsuitability.

    To be put forward he needs the support of many conservative mps and this week will have seen support erode from a large number of them
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    Mortimer said:

    I’m pretty sure the main plank was to LEAVE...

    But what was on the ballot paper was simply whether the UK should be a member state of the EU. The easiest way to deliver on that is to dissolve the UK.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yes, that is the problem. Jezza's 2013 speech breaches the 2016 IHRA definition (which btw Labour adopted most of before the Conservatives) as does a whole bunch of stuff other Corbynites have said.

    The zeitgeist changed. Nazi comparisons used to be popular but no longer. Most of us here will have heard jokes that management should hang the slogan Arbeit Macht Frei at the entrance to our workplace. It was also common to compare Germany or the EU with the Nazis, and at least one Cabinet minister did so in the run-up to Brexit.

    But we are where we are and Corbyn is trapped by his past.

    If he had actually taken this stuff seriously from the get go, he wouldn't have been.
    I like that some people think it was somehow okay to compare Israel to Nazi Germany, as long as they did it before 2016.
    There are things that used to be considered acceptable which now are not. Is that such a hard concept?
    Not at all, but it’s never been acceptable to compare people to Nazis.

    Should Corbyn come out and say that he did think Israel were like Nazis in 2013, but he’s since had a change of mind and doesn’t think so any more?
    It is never acceptable to compare people to Nazis. True. Nick Ridley was sacked by Mrs Thatcher for it back in the day. Boris was promoted to Foreign Secretary after comparing the EU to Nazi Germany. Different strokes.
    Boris’ words were in a wider context, but I agree it was the wrong thing for him to say. He’s unfit for high office, and the PM gave him enough rope to hang himself.
    What about Michael Gove? Or government critics on Windrush? The point is that Nazi comparisons were for decades commonplace in Britain but now the zeitgeist has changed. Corbyn's problem is that he is now on the wrong side of history.

    Forget politics. The sitcom 'Allo 'Allo! could never get made now, with comic caricatures like Herr Flick of the Gestapo, or the sympathetic German officers saying 'tler to slow Nazi salutes.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited August 2018
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    We’re going to be leaving the customs union, after a decent transition, it is the only workable solution.

    The Prime Minister doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Chancellor doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Foreign Secretary doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. Even Jacob Rees-Mogg doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. A majority of people want to remain in the European Union full stop.

    Yet you think the only workable solution is to spend years leaving the customs union. Are you quite mad? It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is over.
    No it looks like the Chequers Deal or a variant of it will be the Brexit deal and secure Brexit for good.

    On the latest polling May could also remain Tory leader until the next general election in 2022 and win a narrow majority against Corbyn securing Brexit on the Chequers Deal terms and killing off talk of reversing Brexit and a second EU referendum albeit also doing the same for hard Brexit as well
    Yet on the polling just a while back, Chequers was dead.

    Don't you see the shortcomings of posting each day as if the medium term future were being cast in stone by the latest short-term poll?
    Chequers is not dead as it is clearly the only way to bridge the gap between diehard Remainers who want to reverse Brexit and diehard Leavers who want to leave with No Deal and which the majority will grudgingly accept.

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    HYUFD said:

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017

    So Tory Leavers with their hashtag #ChequersMeansCorbyn have been shown to be wrong, which is bad news for anyone who was banking on "Brexit betrayal" being electorally toxic for the Tory party.
  • Options

    But they voted for that same Corbyn last year. I distinctly remember the antisemitism scandal having been such a problem then, it even came up during the leaders QT during the GE. That didn’t make those people not vote Corbyn. Corbyn was facilitating Brexit back then as well, and those people were still backing him. I mean the 2016 leadership challenge literally happened in part because Corbyn wasn’t seen as being strong enough against Leave. Something new has to arise in order to change these people’s minds, and nothing new about Corbyn has really come about since last June. None of these Corbyn stories, like the one in the Mail really surprise me.

    But Theresa May - Theresa May!! - still beat him, after the worst Manifesto and campaign in the history of politics. As long as he is still there, then Labour can be beaten again, by some Tory (any Tory?) having a less shite campaign.

    And I suspect many Remainer Labour-voters didn't think, when the chips were down, just how MUCH Corbyn would facilitate Brexit.....
    That same Theresa May started off with a more than twenty point lead though, so it’s not really surprising that even with all those factors she still beat him, because of the high point she started from. The difference between then and now, is unlike then by the time of the next election Brexit and the all fall out from that will have happened, and that could change things. Theresa May isn’t the worse option for the Tories by any means, despite how bad she was during the GE. There are few options for the Tories which are that much better than her - and some are worse. So that, combined with changing circumstances means that to beat Corbyn in 2022 will take more than any Tory not having a shite campaign.

    I don’t think Remainer Labour voters didn’t think - I think they were voting on the social liberal/social conservative divide that has come to characterise those more inclined to Leave and those more inclined to Remain.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    On the latest polling May could also remain Tory leader until the next general election in 2022 and win a narrow majority against Corbyn securing Brexit on the Chequers Deal terms and killing off talk of reversing Brexit and a second EU referendum albeit also doing the same for hard Brexit as well

    The lesson is that May can betray Brexit and still win. And there's plenty more betrayal to come.
    May has not betrayed Brexit, May is implementing Brexit just not WTO terms Brexit and it looks like the EU could now offer her the stay in the single market for goods but end free movement deal she wants
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited August 2018

    Ms. Apocalypse, I largely agree, though last time Corbyn benefited quite a bit from everyone assuming he had no chance. Next time, the media might offer harder questions than "Will you keep your allotment?" and the Conservatives might manage to put together a manifesto that doesn't decimate (or worse) their support.

    Mr. B2, you bounder, you cad, you rogue, you rapscallion!

    Just because your comment is founded on a fundamentally correct summary of recent history does not make it in any way acceptable.

    The story of the election wasn’t necessarily the Tories losing support but Labour gaining support. That said, it’s clear the Tories lost ground with those aged 25-40 in comparison to 2015, but that seems to have been down to Brexit among other factors rather than the GE campaign.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    Incorrect. The campaign to leave's main plank was to put more into the NHS.
    Trade was #4 on Vote Leave’s leaflet.
    image
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017

    So Tory Leavers with their hashtag #ChequersMeansCorbyn have been shown to be wrong, which is bad news for anyone who was banking on "Brexit betrayal" being electorally toxic for the Tory party.
    Chequers Deal Brexit is actually more likely to preserve Brexit in the long term than No Deal Brexit which would increase demands for a second EU referendum if Labour got back in. Chequers Deal Brexit plus No Deal Brexit combined in the polls gives a higher share of voters backing Brexit than those who back No Deal Brexit alone.

    On Chequers Deal Brexit terms probably the most even an Umunna led government would do is take us back into the single market rather than try and reverse Brexit altogether
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    We’re going to be leaving the customs union, after a decent transition, it is the only workable solution.

    The Prime Minister doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Chancellor doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Foreign Secretary doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. Even Jacob Rees-Mogg doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. A majority of people want to remain in the European Union full stop.

    Yet you think the only workable solution is to spend years leaving the customs union. Are you quite mad? It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is over.
    No it looks like the Chequers Deal or a variant of it will be the Brexit deal and secure Brexit for good.

    On the latest polling May could also remain Tory leader until the next general election in 2022 and win a narrow majority against Corbyn securing Brexit on the Chequers Deal terms and killing off talk of reversing Brexit and a second EU referendum albeit also doing the same for hard Brexit as well
    Yet on the polling just a while back, Chequers was dead.

    Don't you see the shortcomings of posting each day as if the medium term future were being cast in stone by the latest short-term poll?
    Chequers is not dead as it is clearly the only way to bridge the gap between diehard Remainers who want to reverse Brexit and diehard Leavers who want to leave with No Deal and which the majority will grudgingly accept.

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017
    Lol so now you think Mrs M will be fighting the next election? What happened to your hapless hero?
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I see PB is providing us with a repeat of Brexit Greatest Hits, including 'Xenephobic Lies', 'Brexit is Over', 'Chequers is not shit' and 'We wanted WTO terms all the time'.

    I wish I was as certain of outcomes as some of the posters on here; given the number of counterparties and the complexities ahead, I'm reduced to rolling my eyes and waiting for events to unfold over the next few months.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017

    So Tory Leavers with their hashtag #ChequersMeansCorbyn have been shown to be wrong, which is bad news for anyone who was banking on "Brexit betrayal" being electorally toxic for the Tory party.
    Chequers Deal Brexit is actually more likely to preserve Brexit in the long term than No Deal Brexit which would increase demands for a second EU referendum if Labour got back in.

    On Chequers Deal Brexit terms probably the most even an Umunna led government would do is take us back into the single market rather than try and reverse Brexit altogether
    You're not taking account of the sequence of events and the further concessions that will be required to make Chequers workable.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017

    So Tory Leavers with their hashtag #ChequersMeansCorbyn have been shown to be wrong, which is bad news for anyone who was banking on "Brexit betrayal" being electorally toxic for the Tory party.
    Chequers Deal Brexit is actually more likely to preserve Brexit in the long term than No Deal Brexit which would increase demands for a second EU referendum if Labour got back in.

    On Chequers Deal Brexit terms probably the most even an Umunna led government would do is take us back into the single market rather than try and reverse Brexit altogether
    You're not taking account of the sequence of events and the further concessions that will be required to make Chequers workable.
    I think we can take it that HY only sees the piece of grain immediately beneath his beak?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited August 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:



    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.

    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    Incorrect. The campaign to leave's main plank was to put more into the NHS.
    Trade was #4 on Vote Leave’s leaflet.
    image
    There are only two things that the public remember about Vote Leave’s campaign (because those were the two things Vote Leave flogged to death). What they chose to include in material that no one actually read is not part of their mandate.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,572

    Scott_P said:

    This story has fallen apart faster than the Commie Spy one.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1028213757439295488
    Dear Dan he was honouring those innocent Palastinians killed in the air attack in Tunisia.
    Why was he doing it 15 yards from their memorial and immediately opposite the Munich terrorists memorial?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    edited August 2018
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    Incorrect. The campaign to leave's main plank was to put more into the NHS.
    Trade was #4 on Vote Leave’s leaflet.
    image
    Swapping membership of one supranational body for membership of another doesn't sound to me like a huge step forward in sovereign status.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017

    So Tory Leavers with their hashtag #ChequersMeansCorbyn have been shown to be wrong, which is bad news for anyone who was banking on "Brexit betrayal" being electorally toxic for the Tory party.
    Chequers Deal Brexit is actually more likely to preserve Brexit in the long term than No Deal Brexit which would increase demands for a second EU referendum if Labour got back in.

    On Chequers Deal Brexit terms probably the most even an Umunna led government would do is take us back into the single market rather than try and reverse Brexit altogether
    You're not taking account of the sequence of events and the further concessions that will be required to make Chequers workable.
    The EU is now ready to offer May the stay in the single market for goods but end free movement deal she wants and that will be enough for most voters in the end bar the most diehard Leavers and Remainers

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6042765/amp/EU-offer-UK-stay-single-market-goods-without-free-movement.html
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:



    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - Asia and Africa. We should be using our new seat at the WTO as a voice encouraging global free trade and move away from the protectionist policies of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.

    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    Incorrect. The campaign to leave's main plank was to put more into the NHS.
    Trade was #4 on Vote Leave’s leaflet.
    image
    There are only two things that the public remember about Vote Leave’s campaign (because those were the two things Vote Leave flogged to death). What they chose to include in material that no one actually read is not part of their mandate.
    A wise man recently wrote a headline:

    ‘Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion’.
  • Options
    John_M said:

    I see PB is providing us with a repeat of Brexit Greatest Hits, including 'Xenephobic Lies', 'Brexit is Over', 'Chequers is not shit' and 'We wanted WTO terms all the time'.

    I wish I was as certain of outcomes as some of the posters on here; given the number of counterparties and the complexities ahead, I'm reduced to rolling my eyes and waiting for events to unfold over the next few months.

    +1.
  • Options
    John_M said:

    I see PB is providing us with a repeat of Brexit Greatest Hits, including 'Xenephobic Lies', 'Brexit is Over', 'Chequers is not shit' and 'We wanted WTO terms all the time'.

    I wish I was as certain of outcomes as some of the posters on here; given the number of counterparties and the complexities ahead, I'm reduced to rolling my eyes and waiting for events to unfold over the next few months.

    Spot on - the certainty of some posters is extraordinary in these times.

    Personally I hope TM gets a deal and gets it approved. I do not see how we get to a peoples vote especially with the time scales involved and TM and Corbyn opposed
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,839
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    Incorrect. The campaign to leave's main plank was to put more into the NHS.
    Trade was #4 on Vote Leave’s leaflet.
    image
    Swapping membership of one supranational body for membership of another doesn't sound to me like a huge step forward in sovereign status.
    It’s a massive step forward when the organisation you are leaving isn’t a trade body but determined over time to supplant the concept of the nation state. Or “Ever Closer Union”, as they like to say.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a future video.

    In short, the best sort of Brexit is one that leaves us in a customs union with neighbouring countries. A customs union (but not *the* customs union) because we want trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    Incorrect. The campaign to leave's main plank was to put more into the NHS.
    Trade was #4 on Vote Leave’s leaflet.
    image
    Swapping membership of one supranational body for membership of another doesn't sound to me like a huge step forward in sovereign status.
    It’s a massive step forward when the organisation you are leaving isn’t a trade body but determined over time to supplant the concept of the nation state. Or “Ever Closer Union”, as they like to say.
    +1
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937
    edited August 2018
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    We’re going to be leaving the customs union, after a decent transition, it is the only workable solution.

    The Prime Minister doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Chancellor doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. The Foreign Secretary doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. Even Jacob Rees-Mogg doesn't want any new customs infrastructure. A majority of people want to remain in the European Union full stop.

    Yet you think the only workable solution is to spend years leaving the customs union. Are you quite mad? It's time to wake up and smell the coffee. Brexit is over.
    No it looks like the Chequers Deal or a variant of it will be the Brexit deal and secure Brexit for good.

    On the latest polling May could also remain Tory leader until the next general election in 2022 and win a narrow majority against Corbyn securing Brexit on the Chequers Deal terms and killing off talk of reversing Brexit and a second EU referendum albeit also doing the same for hard Brexit as well
    Yet on the polling just a while back, Chequers was dead.

    Don't you see the shortcomings of posting each day as if the medium term future were being cast in stone by the latest short-term poll?
    Chequers is not dead as it is clearly the only way to bridge the gap between diehard Remainers who want to reverse Brexit and diehard Leavers who want to leave with No Deal and which the majority will grudgingly accept.

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017
    Lol so now you think Mrs M will be fighting the next election? What happened to your hapless hero?
    If May goes Boris will still be in prime position but that is precisely why Tory MPs may ensure she does not go.

    Plus with May's Tories 4% ahead of Corbyn Labour with Yougov yesterday why does she need to go?
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,247
    edited August 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017

    So Tory Leavers with their hashtag #ChequersMeansCorbyn have been shown to be wrong, which is bad news for anyone who was banking on "Brexit betrayal" being electorally toxic for the Tory party.
    Chequers Deal Brexit is actually more likely to preserve Brexit in the long term than No Deal Brexit which would increase demands for a second EU referendum if Labour got back in.

    On Chequers Deal Brexit terms probably the most even an Umunna led government would do is take us back into the single market rather than try and reverse Brexit altogether
    You're not taking account of the sequence of events and the further concessions that will be required to make Chequers workable.
    And to be fair you have no idea of any concessions that may or may not be required.

    Everything will depend on the context and agreement put forward this Autumn but your constant certainty Brexit will not happen is irrational. If you said it may happen but you prefer it not to that would be honest
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Ms. Apocalypse, I largely agree, though last time Corbyn benefited quite a bit from everyone assuming he had no chance. Next time, the media might offer harder questions than "Will you keep your allotment?" and the Conservatives might manage to put together a manifesto that doesn't decimate (or worse) their support.

    Mr. B2, you bounder, you cad, you rogue, you rapscallion!

    Just because your comment is founded on a fundamentally correct summary of recent history does not make it in any way acceptable.

    The story of the election wasn’t necessarily the Tories losing support but Labour gaining support. That said, it’s clear the Tories lost ground with those aged 25-40 in comparison to 2015, but that seems to have been down to Brexit among other factors rather than the GE campaign.
    Fox-hunting didn't help.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. M, xenophobic*. Just remember it's the same start as Xenophon or xenos.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Mr. M, xenophobic*. Just remember it's the same start as Xenophon or xenos.

    Mr Dancer, mea culpa for my spelling mistook. I'm normally quite good at this kind of thing :).
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    #JC9 - happily relying on the thick-as-pigshit tendency....
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The interesting thing in the polling is that May has won over some centrist 2017 Labour and LD voters to the Tories which makes up for the 2017 Tory Leave voters who have left for UKIP. That is the way Cameron won a majority in 2015 and May could repeat the trick even if she gets a lower voteshare than she got in 2017

    So Tory Leavers with their hashtag #ChequersMeansCorbyn have been shown to be wrong, which is bad news for anyone who was banking on "Brexit betrayal" being electorally toxic for the Tory party.
    Chequers Deal Brexit is actually more likely to preserve Brexit in the long term than No Deal Brexit which would increase demands for a second EU referendum if Labour got back in.

    On Chequers Deal Brexit terms probably the most even an Umunna led government would do is take us back into the single market rather than try and reverse Brexit altogether
    You're not taking account of the sequence of events and the further concessions that will be required to make Chequers workable.
    And to be fair you have no idea of any concessions that may or may not be required.

    Everything will depend on the context and agreement put forward this Autumn but your constant certainty Brexit will not happen is irrational. If you said it may happen but you prefer it not to that would be honest
    We have a pretty good general idea, it's not particularly a mystery. Just look at the arrangements the EU has with other non-members, in conjunction with the constraint of needing at least one more-or-less open border (EU-NI).
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. M, happens to us all.

    I recently misspelled 'honour' as 'owner'. Homophonic typos can be rather horrendous.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    The striking thing about the "xenophobic lie" whine is how self-stultifying it is. The claim is that when Cameron and Merkel *said* Turkey was joining the EU they were lying, and the reason they were lying was because they knew Turkey would never be admitted to the EU because they would be vetoed by at least Greece and France for reasons of xenophobia. So where is the moral high ground there?

    The enemy is not, of course, xenophobic lies in themselves, but xenophobic lies which cause thick white proles to cast votes not in accordance with the economic interests of the well-heeled xenophobic-lie-detector. If Cameron had successfully argued: Look, guys, I hate the Turks as much as any other right-thinking Englishman, and I think our only defence against the brown peril is to Remain so we can keep on vetoing the bastards, we would have heard much less of the x-word over the past two years.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    It's probably the nature of a betting site to focus on events rather than processes. The EU is as much about the dynamics of Franco-Prussian/German relations since the early 19th century as it is about the technical aspects of regulatory harmonisation. Of course, our relations with the other regional European powers will similarly evolve, whether that's within or without the European project. That should give heart to both Europhiles and Europhobes.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Globalisation is great, we should be encouraging it and looking outward at where the vast majority of current and future growth is coming - of the EU and USA. Protectionism doesn’t generate wealth.
    The problem with Africa and Asia is they are bleeding miles away. There is what is called the gravity model of international trade, because like gravity, trade is inversely proportional to distance. I hope RCS will cover this in a trade to be as frictionless as possible, and neighbouring countries because that is who most of our trade is and will continue to be with.
    You’re right that distance plays a part, but the world is getting smaller and the extent to which that’s the case is rapidly diminishing with mprovements in logistics.

    I’d rather we worked hard at the WTO towards global tarrif elimination, rather than tying us to EU regulations and processes designed to protect certain EU industries rather than encourage free trade.
    When did the public vote to join the WTO?
    23rd June 2016. It was a key part of the campaign to leave the EU.
    Incorrect. The campaign to leave's main plank was to put more into the NHS.
    Trade was #4 on Vote Leave’s leaflet.
    image
    Swapping membership of one supranational body for membership of another doesn't sound to me like a huge step forward in sovereign status.
    It’s a massive step forward when the organisation you are leaving isn’t a trade body but determined over time to supplant the concept of the nation state. Or “Ever Closer Union”, as they like to say.
    If only we could have got some kind of, oh I don't know, some kind of opt out of that.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,964
    Mr. Topping, a lot of people lack trust in any promise the EU makes (cf Blair and the rebate for CAP reform).

    New thread.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    John_M said:

    It's probably the nature of a betting site to focus on events rather than processes. The EU is as much about the dynamics of Franco-Prussian/German relations since the early 19th century as it is about the technical aspects of regulatory harmonisation. Of course, our relations with the other regional European powers will similarly evolve, whether that's within or without the European project. That should give heart to both Europhiles and Europhobes.

    Wanna bet? :)
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    John_M said:

    It's probably the nature of a betting site to focus on events rather than processes. The EU is as much about the dynamics of Franco-Prussian/German relations since the early 19th century as it is about the technical aspects of regulatory harmonisation. Of course, our relations with the other regional European powers will similarly evolve, whether that's within or without the European project. That should give heart to both Europhiles and Europhobes.

    Wanna bet? :)
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,936
    I’m sure others are well aware of this, but I’m somewhat behind the curve and have only just started listening to the West Wing Weekly podcast. For fans, it’s an absolute must.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    #JC9 - happily relying on the thick-as-pigshit tendency....
    61 thousand followers. My god.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    edited August 2018

    This thread is now OLD

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    Barnesian said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    The UK has traded lawyers and bankers for Mercedes with Germany. If the trade gets more complicated with Brexit who will suffer more? So far the markets are betting on the UK and the pound is dropping

    Perhaps you'd like to tell us what the trade balance between the UK and Germany has been during the last decade so we can see how successful trading lawyers and bankers for Mercedes has been.
    Selling less and affording to buy less aren't solutions to a balance of payments deficit.
    Perhaps you'd like to say whether a country which has had a current account deficit of over £700bn during the last decade might need a change in economic strategy.
    Sell more of the stuff other people want. Engage with globalisation as that's the way the world works now. Don't make things difficult by cutting ourselves with stupidities like Brexit.

    You're welcome
    Sell more stuff other people want.

    That takes about five seconds to type.

    Try creating some wealth and you'll find its a lot harder to do than making glib comments on an internet forum.

    Whatever wealth this country creates, the government and people will want to consume more.

    Until we're willing to live within our means our problems will continue.

    And only when we start living within our means and so need to create more wealth if we are to consume more wealth will we start to take decisions on investment and education and training and affordable housing seriously.
    Your last sentence is a non sequitur though you probably think it makes sense.

    How about "Only when we start to take decisions on investment and education and training and affordable housing seriously will we create the extra wealth that will enable us to live within our means"?

    At present if we want to consume more the first idea is to shake the magic money tree.

    Now what would happen if that wasn't available ie we had to live within our means ?

    The only way to pay for the extra consumption would be to create extra wealth.

    We would therefore have to look at factors which affect wealth creation.

    Factors such as investment, education, training and affordable housing.
This discussion has been closed.