Agree with the lead. By accident or design Mrs M always seems to make the best out of a bad lot with Bojo.
It was called 'giving him enough rope' - and he duly obliged. David Davis, for all his faults, tried, but Boris took Cameronian 'winging it' to the ultimate degree - at least 'essay crisis' Cameron got his essays done.....
There is a lot to be said for the view that Boris and Cameron were two peas in a social and political pod, just as almost the only thing that divided New Labour stalwarts Blair and Brown was who should be prime minister.
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
The parliamentary party will vote for May in a VONC in order to avoid a contest which could end with the wrong result. It's not really about whether MPs have confidence in May.
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
Excuse me but with respect your first paragraph is nonsense.
The ERG have to get over 150 conservative mps to back them and that is for the birds.
Indeed it is likely conservative mps outside the ERG have become more determined to keep TM in place
Read the second paragraph to see why the first paragraph is correct.
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
If May is toppled there is a high chance a hard Brexiteer would replace her, they just need to come second with MPs not even win as they will likely easily win the membership vote. However May is unlikely to be toppled for precisely that reason.
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
Excuse me but with respect your first paragraph is nonsense.
The ERG have to get over 150 conservative mps to back them and that is for the birds.
Indeed it is likely conservative mps outside the ERG have become more determined to keep TM in place
You can count on the fingers of one finger the number of Tory MPs prepared to let Theresa May go into the next election as PM.
She is working her notice. The only thing not settled is her departure date.
One of the things that is very appealing about Chequers is that it would give the EEA Leavers absolutely nothing of what they were aiming for. If there’s one group that deserves to be completely disappointed, that is it.
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
If May is toppled there is a high chance a hard Brexiteer would replace her, they just need to come second with MPs not even win as they will likely easily win the membership vote. However May is unlikely to be toppled for precisely that reason.
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
Excuse me but with respect your first paragraph is nonsense.
The ERG have to get over 150 conservative mps to back them and that is for the birds.
Indeed it is likely conservative mps outside the ERG have become more determined to keep TM in place
You can count on the fingers of one finger the number of Tory MPs prepared to let Theresa May go into the next election as PM.
She is working her notice. The only thing not settled is her departure date.
A lot can and will change before the next election. May could look like an unassailable safe pair of hands if she makes the right calls in the next 8 months.
Hodges is right for once. Chequers is BINO. Chequers is vassal state dressed in Brexit clothing. Yet you can clearly see a marked shift to it here on PB. Desperate Brexiteers who think they may get a soft Brexit stand up for it, but worse, Brexiteers like hyufd are clearly drifting towards it.
Brexiteers drifting towards Chequers BINO are a disgrace.
Disagree.
Is Chequers even close to an optimal outcome for the UK? No. Is it better than a no deal Brexit? Yes, just. If these are the options available does it make sense to support Chequers through gritted teeth? Yes.
The key, as I have said many times before, is not to regard the deal as the end state. There is no end state. Once out we can drift further away (or get closer again, if that is the popular will) at times of our choosing without an Article 50 process being held as a gun to our head.
Seems sound to me, but a lot of people need some proper Brexit red meat now, not possibly later.
We will have left. Freedom of movement will be restricted. Payments to the EU will be diminished. We will have at least limited powers to negotiate our own trade deals. We will have avoided a cliff edge. The influence of EU lawmaking on our law will be significantly diminished and restricted to the SM.
There are aspects of Chequers that frankly dismay me. But there is a price to be paid for the incompetence of the last 18 months and it may well be it. The question is whether May can deliver it. Initial indications were not good. More recently there have been some encouraging signs.
The incompetence of the last 30 years would be even more accurate.
`a no deal - would likely see carnage on the financial markets`..... quite a lot of prominent hard brexiteers worked in the City JRM,Farage,Lawson,Redwood etc and I assume that they will be looking to make a killing buying stocks when they are oversold in ` the carnage`
They can make money whichever direction it goes, as long as they can get information the rest of the markets don't have by being politically connected.
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
Excuse me but with respect your first paragraph is nonsense.
The ERG have to get over 150 conservative mps to back them and that is for the birds.
Indeed it is likely conservative mps outside the ERG have become more determined to keep TM in place
Read the second paragraph to see why the first paragraph is correct.
Yes and no. There is no point to the second paragraph when the first will not happen.
On the broader issue I do agree to an extent but in a proper election for the leader at some time in the future many mps will put their names forward with hustings and a ballot of the mps and at this point it is not impossible to see Boris in the last two and the membership electing him. I do not want him anywhere near the leadership but it could happen.
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
If May is toppled there is a high chance a hard Brexiteer would replace her, they just need to come second with MPs not even win as they will likely easily win the membership vote. However May is unlikely to be toppled for precisely that reason.
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
Boris as mayor spent years arguing for amnesties and opposing limits but was always rebuffed by Home Secretary Theresa May. That was before his last-minute, 50/50, toss of a coin conversion to Brexit.
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
Excuse me but with respect your first paragraph is nonsense.
The ERG have to get over 150 conservative mps to back them and that is for the birds.
Indeed it is likely conservative mps outside the ERG have become more determined to keep TM in place
You can count on the fingers of one finger the number of Tory MPs prepared to let Theresa May go into the next election as PM.
She is working her notice. The only thing not settled is her departure date.
A lot can and will change before the next election. May could look like an unassailable safe pair of hands if she makes the right calls in the next 8 months.
Nope. She has already been stress-tested and failed. In any outome where "she makes the right calls in the next 8 months", plenty will be taking credit for having forced her to make those calls.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Mr. Meeks, it might be better to consider the national interest rather than contemplate the people you want to see upset...
Mr. HYUFD, Chequers hasn't been in the news much recently. The more it was explained, the less people liked it.
The national interest is well-served by acting against people who cynically used xenophobic lies to try to achieve an objective that almost no one supported.
Mr. Meeks, it might be better to consider the national interest rather than contemplate the people you want to see upset...
Mr. HYUFD, Chequers hasn't been in the news much recently. The more it was explained, the less people liked it.
It has been on the news non stop the last month.
At the end of the day it is a Deal which still ends free movement and that is the only alternative to the current polarisation of No Deal v reverse Brexit altogether or stay in the EEA
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
Excuse me but with respect your first paragraph is nonsense.
The ERG have to get over 150 conservative mps to back them and that is for the birds.
Indeed it is likely conservative mps outside the ERG have become more determined to keep TM in place
You can count on the fingers of one finger the number of Tory MPs prepared to let Theresa May go into the next election as PM.
She is working her notice. The only thing not settled is her departure date.
I agree but that is conflating the immediate position of a threat to VNOC her than her longer term future. She will not lead into the next election
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
Excuse me but with respect your first paragraph is nonsense.
The ERG have to get over 150 conservative mps to back them and that is for the birds.
Indeed it is likely conservative mps outside the ERG have become more determined to keep TM in place
Read the second paragraph to see why the first paragraph is correct.
Yes and no. There is no point to the second paragraph when the first will not happen.
On the broader issue I do agree to an extent but in a proper election for the leader at some time in the future many mps will put their names forward with hustings and a ballot of the mps and at this point it is not impossible to see Boris in the last two and the membership electing him. I do not want him anywhere near the leadership but it could happen.
The success of the antisemitism campaign against Corbyn has killed Boris's chances. No Conservative MP will want to risk descending into the same swamp as Labour, and burka-gate will have confirmed their fears. SpAds for leadership rivals will be touring the tearooms (and ringing round Fleet Street) with similar selections from Boris's back catalogue. It is a rough business, politics.
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
If May is toppled there is a high chance a hard Brexiteer would replace her, they just need to come second with MPs not even win as they will likely easily win the membership vote. However May is unlikely to be toppled for precisely that reason.
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
Boris as mayor spent years arguing for amnesties and opposing limits but was always rebuffed by Home Secretary Theresa May. That was before his last-minute, 50/50, toss of a coin conversion to Brexit.
You can still have an amnesty even with a points system for future migrants.
If Boris backed free movement there is no chance he would be Tory leader or win a general election and he knows it
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
If May is toppled there is a high chance a hard Brexiteer would replace her, they just need to come second with MPs not even win as they will likely easily win the membership vote. However May is unlikely to be toppled for precisely that reason.
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
Boris as mayor spent years arguing for amnesties and opposing limits but was always rebuffed by Home Secretary Theresa May. That was before his last-minute, 50/50, toss of a coin conversion to Brexit.
You can still have an amnesty even with a points system for future migrants.
If Boris backed free movement there is no chance he would be Tory leader or win a general election
The only person to win a Tory majority in the last 26 years did so backing free movement.
Mr. HYUFD, the details of Chequers, such as they were, were covered extensively at the time. Excepting that week or two, the detail has barely been mentioned in the news that I've seen.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
Do you really think a Chequers-style deal will come without "vast annual payments"?
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
The first two points are correct.
I doubt though rejoining the Eurozone would be a requirement as even the EU knows that would finally be the Leave landslide that would settle the matter for good
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
If May is toppled there is a high chance a hard Brexiteer would replace her, they just need to come second with MPs not even win as they will likely easily win the membership vote. However May is unlikely to be toppled for precisely that reason.
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
Boris as mayor spent years arguing for amnesties and opposing limits but was always rebuffed by Home Secretary Theresa May. That was before his last-minute, 50/50, toss of a coin conversion to Brexit.
You can still have an amnesty even with a points system for future migrants.
If Boris backed free movement there is no chance he would be Tory leader or win a general election
The only person to win a Tory majority in the last 26 years did so backing free movement.
No exactly the highlight of the 2015 manifesto....
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
That's not what margin of error means. You also have to cite that it could equally point to 57% Remain against 43% Leave. The 2017 polling debacle came about because the pollsters themselves did sort of what you're doing there, when the error turned out to be in the other direction.
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend?
There is no Brexit dividend.
Rejoining would allow us to reopen the hospitals that will close due to staff shortages...
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a nny used to warn the young Jacob.
If May is toppled there is a high chance a hard Brexiteer would replace her, they just need to come second with MPs not even win as they will likely easily win the membership vote. However May is unlikely to be toppled for precisely that reason.
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
Boris as mayor spent years arguing for amnesties and opposing limits but was always rebuffed by Home Secretary Theresa May. That was before his last-minute, 50/50, toss of a coin conversion to Brexit.
You can still have an amnesty even with a points system for future migrants.
If Boris backed free movement there is no chance he would be Tory leader or win a general election
The only person to win a Tory majority in the last 26 years did so backing free movement.
No he won a majority having promised an EU referendum giving a chance to end free movement.
When Cameron did not promise to have an EU referendum but made no commitment to reverse free movement in 2010 he failed to get a majority
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
That's not what margin of error means. You also have to cite that it could equally point to 57% Remain against 43% Leave. The 2017 polling debacle came about because the pollsters themselves did sort of what you're doing there, when the error turned out to be in the other direction.
2017 had different Tory and Labour leaders, it was not an exact repeat of the last vote.
What is clear is that unless Remain is at least 10 points ahead in the polls margin of error means Leave could still easily win as was proved in 2016
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a nny used to warn the young Jacob.
If May is toppled there is a high chance a hard Brexiteer would replace her, they just need to come second with MPs not even win as they will likely easily win the membership vote. However May is unlikely to be toppled for precisely that reason.
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
Boris as mayor spent years arguing for amnesties and opposing limits but was always rebuffed by Home Secretary Theresa May. That was before his last-minute, 50/50, toss of a coin conversion to Brexit.
You can still have an amnesty even with a points system for future migrants.
If Boris backed free movement there is no chance he would be Tory leader or win a general election
The only person to win a Tory majority in the last 26 years did so backing free movement.
No he won a majority having promised an EU referendum giving a chance to end free movement.
When Cameron did not promise to have an EU referendum but made no commitment to reverse free movement in 2010 he failed to get a majority
2015 had a specific commitment to the single market, unlike 2010.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
Why would we want to give you another vote?
You wouldn't have given us one, had the result been 52/48 the other way.
It's like a losing team demanding a re-run of the World Cup Final because they had an off day.
You can keep your trophy for the 2016 World Cup. No-one's going to change the record books.
The only argument for a re-run is that (for some reason) Brexiters should be chivalrous and give their opponents a second chance.
Brexiteers aren't able to back up their authoritarian urges with action. If you really wanted to make 2016 the final word you'd have to start undermining democratic institutions and repressing the Remoaners. Putin would have delivered Brexit with no problems, but we're not that kind of society.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
Why would we want to give you another vote?
You wouldn't have given us one, had the result been 52/48 the other way.
It's like a losing team demanding a re-run of the World Cup Final because they had an off day.
Tbf I don't remember Remain saying there should be a second referendum even before the result of the first was known (largely down to them not expecting to lose I accept). Leave (in the now displeasing to you form of Farage) otoh...
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
Why would we want to give you another vote?
You wouldn't have given us one, had the result been 52/48 the other way.
It's like a losing team demanding a re-run of the World Cup Final because they had an off day.
Tbf I don't remember Remain saying there should be a second referendum even before the result of the first was known (largely down to them not expecting to lose I accept). Leave (in the now displeasing to you form of Farage) otoh...
Farage would of course be demanding a third vote if Remain narrowly won a second vote so that would not settle the matter either
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a nny used to warn the young Jacob.
If May is toppled there is a high chance a hard Brexiteer would replace her, they just need to come second with MPs not even win as they will likely easily win the membership vote. However May is unlikely to be toppled for precisely that reason.
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
Boris as mayor spent years arguing for amnesties and opposing limits but was always rebuffed by Home Secretary Theresa May. That was before his last-minute, 50/50, toss of a coin conversion to Brexit.
You can still have an amnesty even with a points system for future migrants.
If Boris backed free movement there is no chance he would be Tory leader or win a general election
The only person to win a Tory majority in the last 26 years did so backing free movement.
No he won a majority having promised an EU referendum giving a chance to end free movement.
When Cameron did not promise to have an EU referendum but made no commitment to reverse free movement in 2010 he failed to get a majority
2015 had a specific commitment to the single market, unlike 2010.
Only on the presumed grounds of staying in the EU and of Remain winning the EU referendum if the Tories won a majority and a referendum was held
The Brexiteers are in a bind. They don't want to do anything to disrupt the Brexit process that May is still committed to but they don't trust May to negotiate a deal which is in the UK's interest as they perceive it. So do they challenge her or not?
I think it is clear that the answer is no. This might be because they don't think that they can in fact defeat her and don't want to secure her position for a year or they might genuinely think that the negotiations have been enough of a farce already without a leadership election being added to May's idiotic general election. No doubt there is a bit of both.
If that conclusion is correct then this bet is something of a no brainer. I happen to believe it is but the odds are not that exciting.
The Brexiteers can defeat Theresa May in a VONC, which takes only 48 letters to call. That is the easy part. There is no-one in the parliamentary party who does have confidence in Theresa May.
The reason the headbangers do not call a VONC is that while they would undoubtedly defenestrate Theresa May, her replacement would almost certainly be one of Hunt, Hammond or Javid (and safe from any more challenges). The ERG simply cannot command enough votes to elect a confirmed Brexiteer -- and that assumes they can even find one since burka-botherer Boris is widely thought to have wanted to lose the referendum and is pro-immigration and FoM. Always keep tight hold of the prime minister, for fear of finding someone worse, as nanny used to warn the young Jacob.
Excuse me but with respect your first paragraph is nonsense.
The ERG have to get over 150 conservative mps to back them and that is for the birds.
Indeed it is likely conservative mps outside the ERG have become more determined to keep TM in place
You can count on the fingers of one finger the number of Tory MPs prepared to let Theresa May go into the next election as PM.
She is working her notice. The only thing not settled is her departure date.
A lot can and will change before the next election. May could look like an unassailable safe pair of hands if she makes the right calls in the next 8 months.
Mr. Divvie, that's a fair comment on Farage (although it's also worth noting that it's entirely possible to be sceptical of the EU without being pro-Farage).
Mr. CD13, Grieve's meaningful vote amendment may offer a route to a second referendum. The possibility is a plausible one, although still not odds-on.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
That's not what margin of error means. You also have to cite that it could equally point to 57% Remain against 43% Leave. The 2017 polling debacle came about because the pollsters themselves did sort of what you're doing there, when the error turned out to be in the other direction.
2017 had different Tory and Labour leaders, it was not an exact repeat of the last vote.
What is clear is that unless Remain is at least 10 points ahead in the polls margin of error means Leave could still easily win as was proved in 2016
Just like the Corbynites who insist that as they made up 15 points last time around, that's likely next time as well. "Unless the Tories are at least 20 points ahead in the polls, they could still easily fail as was proved in 2017"
You're ignoring the inconvenient fact that the polls have been reweighted to take the 2016 result into account. Take a look at the unweighted responses - they almost inevitably get more people recalling a Remain vote than a Leave one. So what they do is downweight those who remember voting Remain and upweight those who remember voting Leave. And then end up with a "Now Remain" lead anyway.
You're adjusting what has already been adjusted. The next step is for someone to take your "51% Leave/49% Remain" estimate and say "Well, that's based on the current polls and if that's as accurate as the polls in 2016, that means 55% Leave to 45% Remain, right?"
It depends if you really want to find out what the public think or are aiming to just come up with whatever to support your view. If the latter, sure - feel free to keep adjusting until you get what you want to see.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
Why would we want to give you another vote?
You wouldn't have given us one, had the result been 52/48 the other way.
It's like a losing team demanding a re-run of the World Cup Final because they had an off day.
Tbf I don't remember Remain saying there should be a second referendum even before the result of the first was known (largely down to them not expecting to lose I accept). Leave (in the now displeasing to you form of Farage) otoh...
Amusingly, the immediate petition for a rerun was from a Leaver who assumed they'd lost, and got quite irate when loads of Remain signatures appeared on it
Is Chequers even close to an optimal outcome for the UK? No. Is it better than a no deal Brexit? Yes, just. If these are the options available does it make sense to support Chequers through gritted teeth? Yes.
The key, as I have said many times before, is not to regard the deal as the end state. There is no end state. Once out we can drift further away (or get closer again, if that is the popular will) at times of our choosing without an Article 50 process being held as a gun to our head.
That's certainly the strategy of both May and the EU - repeated crises and warnings of disaster until a last-minute deal of any kind comes as a relief. It's a tried and tested formula that has worked numerous times in EU negotiations.
The main problem is that it always kicks important cans down the road. What it will mean in this case is that Brexit will look remarkably similar to membership, but with less influence. The voters don't much care whether Ministers get a say in routine EU regulations, so they'll mostly be OK with that. The services sector will be weakened but that's a bit too abstract for most people to get worked up about.
The one point where I think you're mistaken in the short to medium term is in expecting any appetite to change anything either way. Everyone, including the political class, is sick of the subject, and anyone proposing significant change either way in the next 5 years or so can expect a snort of derision.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
That's not what margin of error means. You also have to cite that it could equally point to 57% Remain against 43% Leave. The 2017 polling debacle came about because the pollsters themselves did sort of what you're doing there, when the error turned out to be in the other direction.
2017 had different Tory and Labour leaders, it was not an exact repeat of the last vote.
What is clear is that unless Remain is at least 10 points ahead in the polls margin of error means Leave could still easily win as was proved in 2016
By the time remain gets to 10 points ahead there'll be no need to rerun the referendum. Brexit will have failed and be seen to have failed.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
Why would we want to give you another vote?
You wouldn't have given us one, had the result been 52/48 the other way.
It's like a losing team demanding a re-run of the World Cup Final because they had an off day.
Tbf I don't remember Remain saying there should be a second referendum even before the result of the first was known (largely down to them not expecting to lose I accept). Leave (in the now displeasing to you form of Farage) otoh...
Nobody is saying that there couldn't be a referendum to REJOIN the EU at some point in the future.
Which is the equivalent of what Farage was saying.
What we have instead is an attempt to reverse a democratic vote before it has even been implemented.
I don't remember any agitation for a vote in 1975. In fact, it took a couple of decades to get any steam behind it. We haven't even left yet and the pleas began immediately.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
Why would we want to give you another vote?
You wouldn't have given us one, had the result been 52/48 the other way.
It's like a losing team demanding a re-run of the World Cup Final because they had an off day.
You can keep your trophy for the 2016 World Cup. No-one's going to change the record books.
The only argument for a re-run is that (for some reason) Brexiters should be chivalrous and give their opponents a second chance.
The precedent seems to be that referenda are called when the government of the day regard the likely result as expedient. I don't recall anyone in real life asking for either of the ones we have had.
The chivalrous thing for leavers to do would be to say we've had a referendum which indicates the will of the people. Parties can now put forward their programmes on how we are going to leave. The one that wins the mandate to put its one into place can take us out, with the full force of the democratic process behind it.
Is Chequers even close to an optimal outcome for the UK? No. Is it better than a no deal Brexit? Yes, just. If these are the options available does it make sense to support Chequers through gritted teeth? Yes.
The key, as I have said many times before, is not to regard the deal as the end state. There is no end state. Once out we can drift further away (or get closer again, if that is the popular will) at times of our choosing without an Article 50 process being held as a gun to our head.
That's certainly the strategy of both May and the EU - repeated crises and warnings of disaster until a last-minute deal of any kind comes as a relief. It's a tried and tested formula that has worked numerous times in EU negotiations.
The main problem is that it always kicks important cans down the road. What it will mean in this case is that Brexit will look remarkably similar to membership, but with less influence. The voters don't much care whether Ministers get a say in routine EU regulations, so they'll mostly be OK with that. The services sector will be weakened but that's a bit too abstract for most people to get worked up about.
The one point where I think you're mistaken in the short to medium term is in expecting any appetite to change anything either way. Everyone, including the political class, is sick of the subject, and anyone proposing significant change either way in the next 5 years or so can expect a snort of derision.
Yes. We had to accept EU widget regulation EC/365/5/WR22. Which is intolerable and so we need to begin a set of negotiations to put a stop to this.
Is Chequers even close to an optimal outcome for the UK? No. Is it better than a no deal Brexit? Yes, just. If these are the options available does it make sense to support Chequers through gritted teeth? Yes.
The key, as I have said many times before, is not to regard the deal as the end state. There is no end state. Once out we can drift further away (or get closer again, if that is the popular will) at times of our choosing without an Article 50 process being held as a gun to our head.
That's certainly the strategy of both May and the EU - repeated crises and warnings of disaster until a last-minute deal of any kind comes as a relief. It's a tried and tested formula that has worked numerous times in EU negotiations.
The main problem is that it always kicks important cans down the road. What it will mean in this case is that Brexit will look remarkably similar to membership, but with less influence. The voters don't much care whether Ministers get a say in routine EU regulations, so they'll mostly be OK with that. The services sector will be weakened but that's a bit too abstract for most people to get worked up about.
The one point where I think you're mistaken in the short to medium term is in expecting any appetite to change anything either way. Everyone, including the political class, is sick of the subject, and anyone proposing significant change either way in the next 5 years or so can expect a snort of derision.
Though if in those five years the EU continues on the path of EverCloserUnion the distance between it and the UK would inevitably increase even without any active change on the UK side.
The only reason so many celebrities are changing their minds on a second vote is because they live in an echo chamber that now thinks (incorrectly) that they can win it.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
Why would we want to give you another vote?
You wouldn't have given us one, had the result been 52/48 the other way.
It's like a losing team demanding a re-run of the World Cup Final because they had an off day.
Tbf I don't remember Remain saying there should be a second referendum even before the result of the first was known (largely down to them not expecting to lose I accept). Leave (in the now displeasing to you form of Farage) otoh...
Amusingly, the immediate petition for a rerun was from a Leaver who assumed they'd lost, and got quite irate when loads of Remain signatures appeared on it
Of course, if Leave had narrowly lost, we'd be hearing far fewer noises from the Remain camp now arguing for a second vote if public opinion had quickly turned to regret, and against that decision.
The only reason so many celebrities are changing their minds on a second vote is because they live in an echo chamber that now thinks (incorrectly) that they can win it.
Well I'm not a celebrity. And the only reason I've changed my mind is that there doesn't seem the remotest prospect of Brexit being implemented in an orderly fashion.
Am I right in saying the "journey" that Brian Cox has been on, and the "change of mind" from Gavin Esler, is from Voting Remain & accepting the result to Voting Remain and not accepting the result?
The one point where I think you're mistaken in the short to medium term is in expecting any appetite to change anything either way. Everyone, including the political class, is sick of the subject, and anyone proposing significant change either way in the next 5 years or so can expect a snort of derision.
That comment earns a snort of derision from me. We haven't even got a deal yet. By March the most we will have is a statement of intent and a transition deal that changes nothing. If you think avoiding the subject will suffice you are living in a very rarefied Corbynite bubble, or just parroting their lines.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
That's not what margin of error means. You also have to cite that it could equally point to 57% Remain against 43% Leave. The 2017 polling debacle came about because the pollsters themselves did sort of what you're doing there, when the error turned out to be in the other direction.
2017 had different Tory and Labour leaders, it was not an exact repeat of the last vote.
What is clear is that unless Remain is at least 10 points ahead in the polls margin of error means Leave could still easily win as was proved in 2016
Just like the Corbynites who insist that as they made up 15 points last time around, that's likely next time as well. "Unless the Tories are at least 20 points ahead in the polls, they could still easily fail as was proved in 2017"
You're ignoring the inconvenient fact that the polls have been reweighted to take the 2016 result into account. Take a look at the unweighted responses - they almost inevitably get more people recalling a Remain vote than a Leave one. So what they do is downweight those who remember voting Remain and upweight those who remember voting Leave. And then end up with a "Now Remain" lead anyway.
You're adjusting what has already been adjusted. The next step is for someone to take your "51% Leave/49% Remain" estimate and say "Well, that's based on the current polls and if that's as accurate as the polls in 2016, that means 55% Leave to 45% Remain, right?"
It depends if you really want to find out what the public think or are aiming to just come up with whatever to support your view. If the latter, sure - feel free to keep adjusting until you get what you want to see.
It is not a matter of saying what I want to see it is based on the experience of the last referendum.
Comres was showing an 8% Remain lead in its final EU referendum poll for goodness sake and Leave won by 4%.
So as I said unless polls consistently show Remain ahead by at least 55% to 45%+ there has been no meaningful change from 2016
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
I think it's quite likely there is a rejoin referendum in the 2020s under a future Labour administration (perhaps as high as 50:50) but I'm struggling to see any campaign that could be run to convince 50%+1 of the public to go for it. The various attack lines of "No", which will then be the status quo, are strong ones.
It's quite likely it would get an enthusiastic 35% but rather unlikely to go higher than 40%.
The only reason so many celebrities are changing their minds on a second vote is because they live in an echo chamber that now thinks (incorrectly) that they can win it.
They become more shrill as their bitterness increases.
All the things they had hoped for - recession, job losses, stock market crashes, a collapsing NHS, car factories shutting down, refugee camps at Dover and crops rotting in the fields - have failed to happen.
Am I right in saying the "journey" that Brian Cox has been on, and the "change of mind" from Gavin Esler, is from Voting Remain & accepting the result to Voting Remain and not accepting the result?
Either they're confident about the weather or Root is permanently scarred by the loss to the West Indies last year.
I don’t know what they’re up to, this has a draw written all over it if we get any more rain, and you need 20 wickets to win a Test match. I’d have declared when Bairstow fell, nine overs ago late yesterday.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
.
2017 had different Tory and Labour leaders, it was not an exact repeat of the last vote.
Just like the Corbynites who insist that as they made up 15 points last time around, that's likely next time as well. "Unless the Tories are at least 20 points ahead in the polls, they could still easily fail as was proved in 2017"
You're ignoring the inconvenient fact that the polls have been reweighted to take the 2016 result into account. Take a look at the unweighted responses - they almost inevitably get more people recalling a Remain vote than a Leave one. So what they do is downweight those who remember voting Remain and upweight those who remember voting Leave. And then end up with a "Now Remain" lead anyway.
You're adjusting what has already been adjusted. The next step is for someone to take your "51% Leave/49% Remain" estimate and say "Well, that's based on the current polls and if that's as accurate as the polls in 2016, that means 55% Leave to 45% Remain, right?"
It depends if you really want to find out what the public think or are aiming to just come up with whatever to support your view. If the latter, sure - feel free to keep adjusting until you get what you want to see.
It is not a matter of saying what I want to see it is based on the experience of the last referendum.
Comres was showing an 8% Remain lead in its final EU referendum poll for goodness sake and Leave won by 4%.
So as I said unless polls consistently show Remain ahead by at least 55% to 45%+ there has been no meaningful change from 2016
I don't think there is any way of predicting the result from polling. It isn't like elections where we have a lot of data. In my case, I was so sure that remain were going to win I probably wouldn't have troubled voting had not my path happened to take me right past the polling station. And I had given the whole issue relatively little thought.
Next time I would crawl over broken glass to vote remain, now I know what is actually at stake. I may not be typical in that journey, but I doubt I'm unique.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
That's not what margin of error means. You also have to cite that it could equally point to 57% Remain against 43% Leave. The 2017 polling debacle came about because the pollsters themselves did sort of what you're doing there, when the error turned out to be in the other direction.
2017 had different Tory and Labour leaders, it was not an exact repeat of the last vote.
What is clear is that unless Remain is at least 10 points ahead in the polls margin of error means Leave could still easily win as was proved in 2016
By the time remain gets to 10 points ahead there'll be no need to rerun the referendum. Brexit will have failed and be seen to have failed.
Even a 10 point Remain win in a second referendum would not settle the matter.
You need at least a 60% + vote in a referendum to definitely resolve an issue or at least do so for a generation or more.
Hence we are still discussing a possible second independence referendum in Scotland despite No winning 55% to 45% in 2014 and hence we are still discussing a possible second EU referendum despite Leave winning 52% to 48% in 2016 but hence we are not discussing a possible second referendum on electoral reform as NotoAV won by 68% to 32% in 2011
Either they're confident about the weather or Root is permanently scarred by the loss to the West Indies last year.
I don’t know what they’re up to, this has a draw written all over it if we get any more rain, and you need 20 wickets to win a Test match. I’d have declared when Bairstow fell, nine overs ago late yesterday.
Batting conditions were too easy yesterday evening.
This morning looks very different.
Perhaps they just want to drag the Indian batsmen onto the pitch before sending them running back to the pavilion to get ready for batting.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
I think it's quite likely there is a rejoin referendum in the 2020s under a future Labour administration (perhaps as high as 50:50) but I'm struggling to see any campaign that could be run to convince 50%+1 of the public to go for it. The various attack lines of "No", which will then be the status quo, are strong ones.
It's quite likely it would get an enthusiastic 35% but rather unlikely to go higher than 40%.
"No we don't want a say in the rules that affect us!" "No we don't want to have to elect MEPs of our own! We're happy with their MEPs telling us what to do!" "No we don't want a vote in the Council!"
Centrism isn’t failing. The amplifying effect of social media has empowered the fringes, who in people likeTrump and Corbyn offer easy, nostalgic solutions to difficult problems.
I just can't quite believe Corbyn is going to get away with this. That people you'd think of as decent would try and defend it is shattering in terms of my view of morality. You try to avoid the dark implications of Hannah Arendt that given the right circumstances normal, nice people will defend the appalling, but Corbyn is proving her so awfully correct.
The left of Labour need to wake up before they lose their souls entirely. You won. New Labour is dead, no Labour leader will even risk seeming like he or she is splitting the difference between the Tories again in a generation or two. You don't have to keep on demeaning yourselves by defending this horrible man. If you keep doing it you'll corrupt your cause and people who would otherwise sympathise and campaign alongside you will think splitting Labour to destroy the vile cesspit of Corbynism is the only viable option.
The only reason so many celebrities are changing their minds on a second vote is because they live in an echo chamber that now thinks (incorrectly) that they can win it.
If anyone thinks political society is currently divisive and bad tempered, just imagine what might happen if the political class conspired to ask the people the same question again.
The only reason so many celebrities are changing their minds on a second vote is because they live in an echo chamber that now thinks (incorrectly) that they can win it.
They become more shrill as their bitterness increases.
All the things they had hoped for - recession, job losses, stock market crashes, a collapsing NHS, car factories shutting down, refugee camps at Dover and crops rotting in the fields - have failed to happen.
They think their case has been proven.
Unfortunately, it hasn't. A swing of 3-4% to Remain when underlying opinion is so sticky is nothing like robust enough to survive an intense campaign. I see no evidence that Remain has learnt any lessons in how to frame the choice to voters other than "we told you so". The hubris is intergallatic.
It's one heck of a gamble pitched out of desperation for a lost cause that doesn't have the remotest chance of taking place prior to Brexit, which most floating voters will rapidly breathe a sigh of relief over once done.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
I think it's quite likely there is a rejoin referendum in the 2020s under a future Labour administration (perhaps as high as 50:50) but I'm struggling to see any campaign that could be run to convince 50%+1 of the public to go for it. The various attack lines of "No", which will then be the status quo, are strong ones.
It's quite likely it would get an enthusiastic 35% but rather unlikely to go higher than 40%.
"No we don't want a say in the rules that affect us!" "No we don't want to have to elect MEPs of our own! We're happy with their MEPs telling us what to do!" "No we don't want a vote in the Council!"
That kind of thing?
You think that MEPs are well thought of ???
Or that people enjoy with the posturing followed by humiliation that British governments produce in Brussels ???
Whisper it. Especially if you’re in the vicinity of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson, (unless, in the latter case, you are safely disguised as part of the postal system or Ronnie Biggs). But Theresa May’s Chequers strategy is starting to work.
As ever, this does not fit the popular Westminster narrative. We are meant to believe Mrs May’s premiership is imploding in an orgy of Tory in-fighting, as an enraged nation reacts in fury to her heinous Brexit betrayal. That her grand-design lies in ruins, rejected out of hand by the callous and conniving EU bureaucrats.
But once again, British politics is refusing to follow the script. The British people are proving stubbornly independent. And there are even signs the member states of the EU are finally realising that if they want to avoid a cliff-edge, no-deal, UK departure, they are going to have to start to respond to the PM’s pragmatism with some hard-headed realism of their own.
I posted on here many, many months ago that the June 2017 election outcome actually left Theresa May with a really good negotiating position: she could say "work with me for a reasonable Brexit deal - or else I fall, and am replaced by No-Deal Boris...." It has not been clear that she has been prepared to use that line. In public, at least. But now, as we reach the sharp end - the only time the EU ever pays attention - the Cabinet resignations have made it crystal clear to the EU: UK politics is working towards a walk-away Brexit being now a very real alternative. The media here is playing along, and many of the contributors on here are aghast that No-Deal Boris could actually happen.
Importantly, there are maybe straws in the wind that EU leaders are sensing that No-Deal Boris is a possibility - and really, really not what they want. There are stories floating around that maybe, just maybe, they are now considering some alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party keeps May in place, but ramps up the pressure, inching a VONC nearer with every letter sent in.... It is an epic game of negotiating brinksmanship that might yet deliver an OK outcome. If it does, it will make it much easier for the Conservative Party to come back together, with each player saying they did their bit in the Great Brexit Game.
The UK has chosen to become an enemy of the EU like Russia or Turkey, and it is in the EU's interest to harm the UK as much as possible. It is important for the EUs future integrity for it to stick to the red line that the 4 freedoms are indivisible.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
I think it's quite likely there is a rejoin referendum in the 2020s under a future Labour administration (perhaps as high as 50:50) but I'm struggling to see any campaign that could be run to convince 50%+1 of the public to go for it. The various attack lines of "No", which will then be the status quo, are strong ones.
It's quite likely it would get an enthusiastic 35% but rather unlikely to go higher than 40%.
"No we don't want a say in the rules that affect us!" "No we don't want to have to elect MEPs of our own! We're happy with their MEPs telling us what to do!" "No we don't want a vote in the Council!"
That kind of thing?
You think that MEPs are well thought of ???
Or that people enjoy with the posturing followed by humiliation that British governments produce in Brussels ???
People seem to be drawn to humiliation. It's the only rational explanation for Brexit.
Whisper it. Especially if you’re in the vicinity of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson, (unless, in the latter case, you are safely disguised as part of the postal system or Ronnie Biggs). But Theresa May’s Chequers strategy is starting to work.
As ever, this does not fit the popular Westminster narrative. We are meant to believe Mrs May’s premiership is imploding in an orgy of Tory in-fighting, as an enraged nation reacts in fury to her heinous Brexit betrayal. That her grand-design lies in ruins, rejected out of hand by the callous and conniving EU bureaucrats.
But once again, British politics is refusing to follow the script. The British people are proving stubbornly independent. And there are even signs the member states of the EU are finally realising that if they want to avoid a cliff-edge, no-deal, UK departure, they are going to have to start to respond to the PM’s pragmatism with some hard-headed realism of their own.
I posted on here many, many months ago that the June 2017 election outcome actually left Theresa May with a really good negotiating position: she could say "work with me for a reasonable Brexit deal - or else I fall, and am replaced by No-Deal Boris...." It has not been clear that she has been prepared to use that line. In public, at least. But now, as we reach the sharp end - the only time the EU ever pays attention - the Cabinet resignations have made it crystal clear to the EU: UK politics is working towards a walk-away Brexit being now a very real alternative. The media here is playing along, and many of the contributors on here are aghast that No-Deal Boris could actually happen.
Importantly, there are maybe straws in the wind that EU leaders are sensing that No-Deal Boris is a possibility - and really, really not what they want. There are stories floating around that maybe, just maybe, they are now considering some alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party keeps May in place, but ramps up the pressure, inching a VONC nearer with every letter sent in.... It is an epic game of negotiating brinksmanship that might yet deliver an OK outcome. If it does, it will make it much easier for the Conservative Party to come back together, with each player saying they did their bit in the Great Brexit Game.
The UK has chosen to become an enemy of the EU like Russia or Turkey, and it is in the EU's interest to harm the UK as much as possible. It is important for the EUs future integrity for it to stick to the red line that the 4 freedoms are indivisible.
You think we should pay an enemy that wishes to harm us the forty billion?
Whisper it. Especially if you’re in the vicinity of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson, (unless, in the latter case, you are safely disguised as part of the postal system or Ronnie Biggs). But Theresa May’s Chequers strategy is starting to work.
As ever, this does not fit the popular Westminster narrative. We are meant to believe Mrs May’s premiership is imploding in an orgy of Tory in-fighting, as an enraged nation reacts in fury to her heinous Brexit betrayal. That her grand-design lies in ruins, rejected out of hand by the callous and conniving EU bureaucrats.
But once again, British politics is refusing to follow the script. The British people are proving stubbornly independent. And there are even signs the member states of the EU are finally realising that if they want to avoid a cliff-edge, no-deal, UK departure, they are going to have to start to respond to the PM’s pragmatism with some hard-headed realism of their own.
I posted on here many, many months ago that the June 2017 election outcome actually left Theresa May with a really good negotiating position: she could say "work with me for a reasonable Brexit deal - or else I fall, and am replaced by No-Deal Boris...." It has not been clear that she has been prepared to use that line. In public, at least. But now, as we reach the sharp end - the only time the EU ever pays attention - the Cabinet resignations have made it crystal clear to the EU: UK politics is working towards a walk-away Brexit being now a very real alternative. The media here is playing along, and many of the contributors on here are aghast that No-Deal Boris could actually happen.
Importantly, there are maybe straws in the wind that EU leaders are sensing that No-Deal Boris is a possibility - and really, really not what they want. There are stories floating around that maybe, just maybe, they are now considering some alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party keeps May in place, but ramps up the pressure, inching a VONC nearer with every letter sent in.... It is an epic game of negotiating brinksmanship that might yet deliver an OK outcome. If it does, it will make it much easier for the Conservative Party to come back together, with each player saying they did their bit in the Great Brexit Game.
The UK has chosen to become an enemy of the EU like Russia or Turkey, and it is in the EU's interest to harm the UK as much as possible. It is important for the EUs future integrity for it to stick to the red line that the 4 freedoms are indivisible.
Being in EverCloserUnion within an organisation which seeks to harm you as much as possible doesn't sound like a good idea to me.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
Why don't we test your theory with another vote.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
I think it's quite likely there is a rejoin referendum in the 2020s under a future Labour administration (perhaps as high as 50:50) but I'm struggling to see any campaign that could be run to convince 50%+1 of the public to go for it. The various attack lines of "No", which will then be the status quo, are strong ones.
It's quite likely it would get an enthusiastic 35% but rather unlikely to go higher than 40%.
"No we don't want a say in the rules that affect us!" "No we don't want to have to elect MEPs of our own! We're happy with their MEPs telling us what to do!" "No we don't want a vote in the Council!"
That kind of thing?
Yes. It's a technocratic argument that only appeals to a minority, as the votes in Norway have shown.
You're not going to win using that against losing the national currency, extra budget contributions and immigration control for a direct vote on what parameters of aluminium widgets are most acceptable across the European supply chain.
Centrism isn’t failing. The amplifying effect of social media has empowered the fringes, who in people likeTrump and Corbyn offer easy, nostalgic solutions to difficult problems.
Depends which country you look at. In Canada, Germany and France and Australia and the Netherlands there are centrist leaders, in the US or Greece or Italy populists are in charge.
In the UK we have a centrist leader trying to implement a populist vote
"No we don't want a say in the rules that affect us!" "No we don't want to have to elect MEPs of our own! We're happy with their MEPs telling us what to do!" "No we don't want a vote in the Council!"
That kind of thing?
Yes. It's a technocratic argument that only appeals to a minority, as the votes in Norway have shown.
You're not going to win using that against losing the national currency, extra budget contributions and immigration control for a direct vote on what parameters of aluminium widgets are most acceptable across the European supply chain.
Norway is content to be in the EU's sphere of influence in a way the UK wouldn't be. It's not a technocratic argument but a visceral argument about the way we see ourselves.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
I think it's quite likely there is a rejoin referendum in the 2020s under a future Labour administration (perhaps as high as 50:50) but I'm struggling to see any campaign that could be run to convince 50%+1 of the public to go for it. The various attack lines of "No", which will then be the status quo, are strong ones.
It's quite likely it would get an enthusiastic 35% but rather unlikely to go higher than 40%.
"No we don't want a say in the rules that affect us!" "No we don't want to have to elect MEPs of our own! We're happy with their MEPs telling us what to do!" "No we don't want a vote in the Council!"
That kind of thing?
Yes. It's a technocratic argument that only appeals to a minority, as the votes in Norway have shown.
You're not going to win using that against losing the national currency, extra budget contributions and immigration control for a direct vote on what parameters of aluminium widgets are most acceptable across the European supply chain.
You're not going to win using that against losing the national currency, extra budget contributions and immigration control for a direct vote on what parameters of aluminium widgets are most acceptable across the European supply chain WHICH WILL BE DECIDED BY WHAT GERMANY AND FRANCE WANT IN ANY CASE.
Whisper it. Especially if you’re in the vicinity of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson, (unless, in the latter case, you are safely disguised as part of the postal system or Ronnie Biggs). But Theresa May’s Chequers strategy is starting to work.
As ever, this does not fit the popular Westminster narrative. We are meant to believe Mrs May’s premiership is imploding in an orgy of Tory in-fighting, as an enraged nation reacts in fury to her heinous Brexit betrayal. That her grand-design lies in ruins, rejected out of hand by the callous and conniving EU bureaucrats.
But once again, British politics is refusing to follow the script. The British people are proving stubbornly independent. And there are even signs the member states of the EU are finally realising that if they want to avoid a cliff-edge, no-deal, UK departure, they are going to have to start to respond to the PM’s pragmatism with some hard-headed realism of their own.
I posted on here many, many months ago that the June 2017 election outcome actually left Theresa May with a really good negotiating position: she could say "work with me for a reasonable Brexit deal - or else I fall, and am replaced by No-Deal Boris...." It has not been clear that she has been prepared to use that line. In public, at least. But now, as we reach the sharp end - the only time the EU ever pays attention - the Cabinet resignations have made it crystal clear to the EU: UK politics is working towards a walk-away Brexit being now a very real alternative. The media here is playing along, and many of the contributors on here are aghast that No-Deal Boris could actually happen.
Importantly, there are maybe straws in the wind that EU leaders are sensing that No-Deal Boris is a possibility - and really, really not what they want. There are stories floating around that maybe, just maybe, they are now considering some alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party keeps May in place, but ramps up the pressure, inching a VONC nearer with every letter sent in.... It is an epic game of negotiating brinksmanship that might yet deliver an OK outcome. If it does, it will make it much easier for the Conservative Party to come back together, with each player saying they did their bit in the Great Brexit Game.
The UK has chosen to become an enemy of the EU like Russia or Turkey, and it is in the EU's interest to harm the UK as much as possible. It is important for the EUs future integrity for it to stick to the red line that the 4 freedoms are indivisible.
Whisper it. Especially if you’re in the vicinity of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson, (unless, in the latter case, you are safely disguised as part of the postal system or Ronnie Biggs). But Theresa May’s Chequers strategy is starting to work.
As ever, this does not fit the popular Westminster narrative. We are meant to believe Mrs May’s premiership is imploding in an orgy of Tory in-fighting, as an enraged nation reacts in fury to her heinous Brexit betrayal. That her grand-design lies in ruins, rejected out of hand by the callous and conniving EU bureaucrats.
But once again, British politics is refusing to follow the script. The British people are proving stubbornly independent. And there are even signs the member states of the EU are finally realising that if they want to avoid a cliff-edge, no-deal, UK departure, they are going to have to start to respond to the PM’s pragmatism with some hard-headed realism of their own.
Importantly, there are maybe straws in the wind that EU leaders are sensing that No-Deal Boris is a possibility - and really, really not what they want. There are stories floating around that maybe, just maybe, they are now considering some alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party keeps May in place, but ramps up the pressure, inching a VONC nearer with every letter sent in.... It is an epic game of negotiating brinksmanship that might yet deliver an OK outcome. If it does, it will make it much easier for the Conservative Party to come back together, with each player saying they did their bit in the Great Brexit Game.
The UK has chosen to become an enemy of the EU like Russia or Turkey, and it is in the EU's interest to harm the UK as much as possible. It is important for the EUs future integrity for it to stick to the red line that the 4 freedoms are indivisible.
Being in EverCloserUnion within an organisation which seeks to harm you as much as possible doesn't sound like a good idea to me.
I don’t get the feeling that the EU wants to ‘harm’ the UK. In fact, if we came to our senses I think they’d rather like us back, but not if we persist in the sort of niggling complaints we’ve put forward recently.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
I think it's quite likely there is a rejoin referendum in the 2020s under a future Labour administration (perhaps as high as 50:50) but I'm struggling to see any campaign that could be run to convince 50%+1 of the public to go for it. The various attack lines of "No", which will then be the status quo, are strong ones.
It's quite likely it would get an enthusiastic 35% but rather unlikely to go higher than 40%.
"No we don't want a say in the rules that affect us!" "No we don't want to have to elect MEPs of our own! We're happy with their MEPs telling us what to do!" "No we don't want a vote in the Council!"
That kind of thing?
You think that MEPs are well thought of ???
Or that people enjoy with the posturing followed by humiliation that British governments produce in Brussels ???
People seem to be drawn to humiliation. It's the only rational explanation for Brexit.
Some people enjoy being humiliated - which would explain why Major, Blair, Brown and Cameron all supported Remain despite the humiliations they had received.
Others prefer not to be and so wish to leave an organisation which humiliates them.
Whisper it. Especially if you’re in the vicinity of Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage or Boris Johnson, (unless, in the latter case, you are safely disguised as part of the postal system or Ronnie Biggs). But Theresa May’s Chequers strategy is starting to work.
As ever, this does not fit the popular Westminster narrative. We are meant to believe Mrs May’s premiership is imploding in an orgy of Tory in-fighting, as an enraged nation reacts in fury to her heinous Brexit betrayal. That her grand-design lies in ruins, rejected out of hand by the callous and conniving EU bureaucrats.
But once again, British politics is refusing to follow the script. The British people are proving stubbornly independent. And there are even signs the member states of the EU are finally realising that if they want to avoid a cliff-edge, no-deal, UK departure, they are going to have to start to respond to the PM’s pragmatism with some hard-headed realism of their own.
I posted on hnd ating brinksmanship that might yet deliver an OK outcome. If it does, it will make it much easier for the Conservative Party to come back together, with each player saying they did their bit in the Great Brexit Game.
The UK has chosen to become an enemy of the EU like Russia or Turkey, and it is in the EU's interest to harm the UK as much as possible. It is important for the EUs future integrity for it to stick to the red line that the 4 freedoms are indivisible.
It is no doubt important for them to maintain the four freedoms line as much as is possible, but the rest of your post is utter nonsense. You don't become an enemy of somebody just because you are no longer in a political union with them. Of course it can lead to tensions, and there will be times of opposition, but the world does not exist in a situation where you are either in the EU or an enemy of the EU. Is the USA our enemy? Ireland? It is not in the EU's interest to harm us if it also harms themselves for instance. Certainly they would be willing to take a hit on some issues, like the four freedoms, but the whole reason we are all negotiating is because the EU also want to have friendly relations, us being an enemy makes no sense to either side; they just need to make sure that everyone sees our situation is worse afterwards. But that can be helped by us seeing some things as victories which they would regard as losses.
It is based on a 53% Remain 47% Leave national poll figure.
The final Yougov EU referendum poll was Remain 48% and Leave 52%. Leave won 52% to 48% for Remain.
On the same margin of error Leave would be ahead 51% to 49% for Remain even on this poll
That's not what margin of error means. You also have to cite that it could equally point to 57% Remain against 43% Leave. The 2017 polling debacle came about because the pollsters themselves did sort of what you're doing there, when the error turned out to be in the other direction.
2017 had different Tory and Labour leaders, it was not an exact repeat of the last vote.
What is clear is that unless Remain is at least 10 points ahead in the polls margin of error means Leave could still easily win as was proved in 2016
By the time remain gets to 10 points ahead there'll be no need to rerun the referendum. Brexit will have failed and be seen to have failed.
Even a 10 point Remain win in a second referendum would not settle the matter.
You need at least a 60% + vote in a referendum to definitely resolve an issue or at least do so for a generation or more.
Hence we are still discussing a possible second independence referendum in Scotland despite No winning 55% to 45% in 2014 and hence we are still discussing a possible second EU referendum despite Leave winning 52% to 48% in 2016 but hence we are not discussing a possible second referendum on electoral reform as NotoAV won by 68% to 32% in 2011
Isn't the turnout figure the important one? Even if NotoAV had won 55-45 on a 42% turnout, I'm pretty sure the general dontgiveafuckedness quotient would still be similar.
As the Tories are in government and both they and the DUP had manifesto commitments to implement Brexit and have a majority in Parliament and 70% of Tory voters back Leave.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
Anyone pledging to take us back into the EU will have to tell us what they are going to cut/what taxes they will raise to pay our contributions. What hospitals are you going to close to claw back the Brexit dividend? They will also have to confirm they are happy to do so as members of the Eurozone.
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
I think it's quite likely there is a rejoin referendum in the 2020s under a future Labour administration (perhaps as high as 50:50) but I'm struggling to see any campaign that could be run to convince 50%+1 of the public to go for it. The various attack lines of "No", which will then be the status quo, are strong ones.
It's quite likely it would get an enthusiastic 35% but rather unlikely to go higher than 40%.
"No we don't want a say in the rules that affect us!" "No we don't want to have to elect MEPs of our own! We're happy with their MEPs telling us what to do!" "No we don't want a vote in the Council!"
That kind of thing?
You think that MEPs are well thought of ???
Or that people enjoy with the posturing followed by humiliation that British governments produce in Brussels ???
People seem to be drawn to humiliation. It's the only rational explanation for Brexit.
That you cannot see any other rational explanation is a good sign why you don't understand the issues even half as much as you think you do and should be a little less bullish in your predictions, since you surely cannot be confident in a prediction when you think it is driven by irrationality, rather than rational thinking based on what might be incorrect premises.
Comments
Boris also did not support FoM but wanted to replace it with a points system but had to row back on it after May slapped him down as she wants a job offer/work permits system
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/uk/707188/Theresa-May-Boris-Johnson-immigration-point-system-Brexit-EU-referendum/amp
Plus, the pro-EU types in the Commons will be working from day one to try and get us closer to the EU, not to increase the distance.
She is working her notice. The only thing not settled is her departure date.
On the broader issue I do agree to an extent but in a proper election for the leader at some time in the future many mps will put their names forward with hustings and a ballot of the mps and at this point it is not impossible to see Boris in the last two and the membership electing him. I do not want him anywhere near the leadership but it could happen.
Mr. HYUFD, Chequers hasn't been in the news much recently. The more it was explained, the less people liked it.
We also had a manifesto commitment from the Tories for an EU referendum in 2015 which they won a majority on.
I believe the LDs are moving towards a manifesto commitment for a second EU referendum after the next general election, presumably to back into the EU. If Labour want to join them that is up to them but it is unlikely under Corbyn
At the end of the day it is a Deal which still ends free movement and that is the only alternative to the current polarisation of No Deal v reverse Brexit altogether or stay in the EEA
You wouldn't have given us one, had the result been 52/48 the other way.
It's like a losing team demanding a re-run of the World Cup Final because they had an off day.
If Boris backed free movement there is no chance he would be Tory leader or win a general election and he knows it
Good luck with that. No, the reason the Remainers have put up such a fight is that they know the UK politics of rejoining will be damned near impossible.
I doubt though rejoining the Eurozone would be a requirement as even the EU knows that would finally be the Leave landslide that would settle the matter for good
You also have to cite that it could equally point to 57% Remain against 43% Leave.
The 2017 polling debacle came about because the pollsters themselves did sort of what you're doing there, when the error turned out to be in the other direction.
Rejoining would allow us to reopen the hospitals that will close due to staff shortages...
When Cameron did not promise to have an EU referendum but made no commitment to reverse free movement in 2010 he failed to get a majority
What is clear is that unless Remain is at least 10 points ahead in the polls margin of error means Leave could still easily win as was proved in 2016
Your idea for a second referendum loses credibility because a Remainer minority started agitating for it the minute the result was announced.
Now, every time you repeat the bleat, it becomes background noise. They would say that, wouldn't they?
Yes, Mandy, they would.
Mr. CD13, Grieve's meaningful vote amendment may offer a route to a second referendum. The possibility is a plausible one, although still not odds-on.
"Unless the Tories are at least 20 points ahead in the polls, they could still easily fail as was proved in 2017"
You're ignoring the inconvenient fact that the polls have been reweighted to take the 2016 result into account.
Take a look at the unweighted responses - they almost inevitably get more people recalling a Remain vote than a Leave one. So what they do is downweight those who remember voting Remain and upweight those who remember voting Leave. And then end up with a "Now Remain" lead anyway.
You're adjusting what has already been adjusted. The next step is for someone to take your "51% Leave/49% Remain" estimate and say "Well, that's based on the current polls and if that's as accurate as the polls in 2016, that means 55% Leave to 45% Remain, right?"
It depends if you really want to find out what the public think or are aiming to just come up with whatever to support your view. If the latter, sure - feel free to keep adjusting until you get what you want to see.
At the General Election in 2022.
Those wishing to campaign to rejoin the EU may sweep all before them.
Or not.
The main problem is that it always kicks important cans down the road. What it will mean in this case is that Brexit will look remarkably similar to membership, but with less influence. The voters don't much care whether Ministers get a say in routine EU regulations, so they'll mostly be OK with that. The services sector will be weakened but that's a bit too abstract for most people to get worked up about.
The one point where I think you're mistaken in the short to medium term is in expecting any appetite to change anything either way. Everyone, including the political class, is sick of the subject, and anyone proposing significant change either way in the next 5 years or so can expect a snort of derision.
Which is the equivalent of what Farage was saying.
What we have instead is an attempt to reverse a democratic vote before it has even been implemented.
I don't remember any agitation for a vote in 1975. In fact, it took a couple of decades to get any steam behind it. We haven't even left yet and the pleas began immediately.
The chivalrous thing for leavers to do would be to say we've had a referendum which indicates the will of the people. Parties can now put forward their programmes on how we are going to leave. The one that wins the mandate to put its one into place can take us out, with the full force of the democratic process behind it.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/trump-made-socialism-great-again/567245/
By the way, recent polls show the Dem-Rep gap narrowing sharply for some reason:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
(the malware that I encountered on the site has vanished)
Either they're confident about the weather or Root is permanently scarred by the loss to the West Indies last year.
Comres was showing an 8% Remain lead in its final EU referendum poll for goodness sake and Leave won by 4%.
So as I said unless polls consistently show Remain ahead by at least 55% to 45%+ there has been no meaningful change from 2016
It's quite likely it would get an enthusiastic 35% but rather unlikely to go higher than 40%.
All the things they had hoped for - recession, job losses, stock market crashes, a collapsing NHS, car factories shutting down, refugee camps at Dover and crops rotting in the fields - have failed to happen.
Next time I would crawl over broken glass to vote remain, now I know what is actually at stake. I may not be typical in that journey, but I doubt I'm unique.
You need at least a 60% + vote in a referendum to definitely resolve an issue or at least do so for a generation or more.
Hence we are still discussing a possible second independence referendum in Scotland despite No winning 55% to 45% in 2014 and hence we are still discussing a possible second EU referendum despite Leave winning 52% to 48% in 2016 but hence we are not discussing a possible second referendum on electoral reform as NotoAV won by 68% to 32% in 2011
This morning looks very different.
Perhaps they just want to drag the Indian batsmen onto the pitch before sending them running back to the pavilion to get ready for batting.
"No we don't want to have to elect MEPs of our own! We're happy with their MEPs telling us what to do!"
"No we don't want a vote in the Council!"
That kind of thing?
The left of Labour need to wake up before they lose their souls entirely. You won. New Labour is dead, no Labour leader will even risk seeming like he or she is splitting the difference between the Tories again in a generation or two. You don't have to keep on demeaning yourselves by defending this horrible man. If you keep doing it you'll corrupt your cause and people who would otherwise sympathise and campaign alongside you will think splitting Labour to destroy the vile cesspit of Corbynism is the only viable option.
https://medium.com/@anyabike/corbyns-open-secret-22a70fa03254
Unfortunately, it hasn't. A swing of 3-4% to Remain when underlying opinion is so sticky is nothing like robust enough to survive an intense campaign. I see no evidence that Remain has learnt any lessons in how to frame the choice to voters other than "we told you so". The hubris is intergallatic.
It's one heck of a gamble pitched out of desperation for a lost cause that doesn't have the remotest chance of taking place prior to Brexit, which most floating voters will rapidly breathe a sigh of relief over once done.
Or that people enjoy with the posturing followed by humiliation that British governments produce in Brussels ???
To calm nerves, here’s a decent article on the Parker Solar Probe.
https://www.airspacemag.com/space/first-to-touch-the-sun-180968992/
You're not going to win using that against losing the national currency, extra budget contributions and immigration control for a direct vote on what parameters of aluminium widgets are most acceptable across the European supply chain.
In the UK we have a centrist leader trying to implement a populist vote
Others prefer not to be and so wish to leave an organisation which humiliates them.
https://twitter.com/demindblower/status/1028447545461301248