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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair punters make it a 20% chance that Corbyn won’t last

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    As long as Corbyn has the membership of the Labour Party behind him he cannot be moved
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Pulpstar said:

    Stokes trial - both not guilty

    Called it a week or so ago :)
    Told you. It always looks grim because the prosecution goes first.
    I will also share in that credit.

    DavidL, a lawyer, assured me I was wrong.

    I was right!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pulpstar said:

    Just because Stokes has been found not guilty doesn't mean he isn't coming out of all this looking like a grade A arsehole. That's outwith the remit of the court to decide, of course.

    He may well be. I'd place a significant proportion of Premier League footballers in the same pigeonhole.

    But I'm ok with that, as long as he focus's his arseholyness on skittling out the opposition on the field. Does that make me a bad person?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited August 2018

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    How many Munich terrorists are buried in the cemetery where the wreath was laid in 2014?
    Clue it's less than 1

    Were they assassinated using bombs then?

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    From the video it looks like the apartment blocks on Vai Enrico Porro are unscathed which, if true, will be a very lucky escape - not to say it isn't still a major tragedy.
  • Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    There also comes responsibilities with those rights.

    I mean you can’t expect to yell fire in a crowded theatre and not expect repercussions.

    But it is interesting the alt shite are turning into such snowflakes.

    https://twitter.com/hkesvani/status/1029297928739991552?s=21
  • Alt shite is such an awesome typo.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    felix said:

    Roger said:

    There's no doubt that if the story was as it appeared yesterday that he'd laid a wreath at the graves of the Munich killers I'm sure he'd be out by now. However that apparently isn't what happened. His wreath was laid at the graves of the victims of Israeli bombers. An event that was condemned by the UN.

    I think you will find that is wrong.
    What times we live in - Roger saying the story can’t be as reported or else Corbyn would have resigned. Is that really the barometer of truth?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    Finally you seem to think that Kinnock Minor being surprised at an exit poll the country was surprised at proves he doesn't want to win. Cobblers. It proves he's a rational human being.

    It proves Kinnock is desperately out-of-touch.

    Unsurprisingly, a multimillionaire who lied about sending his children to private school is not a good match to the desperately poor Aberavon constituency.

    No-one has had a lower Labour vote in either numerical or percentage terms in Aberavon than Stephen Kinnock got, since Ramsay MacDonald was first elected in 1922.

    In a fight between Jeremy Corbyn and Steven Kinnock, put me down on Jeremy's side.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    An old fashioned view i'm afraid. Ask Jeremy
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    I sung that in church on the 4th April 1992.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "'What the hell are you up to?' Arson attacks draw Swedish PM's ire

    Stefan Löfven rebukes culprits after dozens of cars set alight in Gothenburg and Trollhättan"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/14/swedish-pm-asks-arsonists-what-the-heck-are-you-doing-setting-fire-to-cars
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited August 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    Electoral Calculus says Labour would be the largest party based on that VI.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789

    Alt shite is such an awesome typo.

    The urban dictionary has an interesting definition of FreeTommy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Alt shite is such an awesome typo.

    Damn! - I thought it was a tad too witty for you TSE :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    Electoral Calculus says Labour would be the largest party based on that VI.
    Tories and Labour would be tied on 290 each in the straight Tory to Labour swing but the Tories would lose 4 to the LDs taking them down to 286.

    The key is the UKIP vote up 3% on 2017 to 5%, without that the Tories would be on 40% and just ahead of Labour in voteshare
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    Just because Stokes has been found not guilty doesn't mean he isn't coming out of all this looking like a grade A arsehole. That's outwith the remit of the court to decide, of course.

    Dunno. It still seems as if – at its core – he was defending those two gay men (who, bizarrely, never came to the stand I don't think?). They have told the papers exactly that so the case isn't clear cut. Also, Ali and Hale were brandishing weapons, Stokes unarmed.
  • Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    There also comes responsibilities with those rights.

    I mean you can’t expect to yell fire in a crowded theatre and not expect repercussions.

    But it is interesting the alt shite are turning into such snowflakes.

    https://twitter.com/hkesvani/status/1029297928739991552?s=21
    +1.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    There are lots of things you are not allowed to say, there are lots of ways freedom of speech is proscribed. Such as slander, libel, incitement to violence, defamation, false advertising, restrictions on reporting, official secrets etc. etc.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:
    He may just have found the perfect form of words to keep this controversy going.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    Scott_P said:
    That makes it sound like the graves of the Israeli athletes are in the same cemetery.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    There are lots of things you are not allowed to say, there are lots of ways freedom of speech is proscribed. Such as slander, libel, incitement to violence, defamation, false advertising, restrictions on reporting, official secrets etc. etc.
    So the opposite of binary then :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    There are lots of things you are not allowed to say, there are lots of ways freedom of speech is proscribed. Such as slander, libel, incitement to violence, defamation, false advertising, restrictions on reporting, official secrets etc. etc.
    Funding secured
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bridge collapse in Genoa sounds awful

    Huge piece of motorway to disintegrate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45183624

    That looks horrible, sadly there’s going to be numerous casualties.
    https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1029315750077640704

    The bridge was over homes, a railway and more - I fear the casualty list will be very large indeed.
    Italian ambulance services already saying dozens dead. The Morandi flyover is huge, this sounds very bleak.
    Sky News just showed a video of the collapse, apparently a 200m section of the 100m high bridge has gone, fallen onto houses. Sadly it’s going to be dozens dead.
    Sadly so. Looking at the map it's on the motorway that comes down into the city from the mountains, and not the coastal one as I originally thought; the descent into Genoa along that motorway is also a dramatic drive. As someone said downthread, there is going to be a lot of checking and testing of Italian Autostrade now, given how many dramatic stretches of motorway bridges there are in the country,
    I've not done much driving in Italy, but a lot of their infrastructure dates from 1960s and it's going to be quite likely there's other similar bridges around that are going to require urgent inspections.

    I'm reminded of the Thelwall Viaduct on the M6, and the viaduct through central Birmingham on the same road, that both required extensive emergency work - with huge disruption - after damage was found a few years ago.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Roger said:


    So do these Jewish residents of the occupied territories have the vote?

    Yes. The settlements are basically treated as de facto part of Israel - they vote, pay taxes, etc. Only difference is it's all enacted via military law rather than civilian.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,042
    Roger said:

    Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    An old fashioned view i'm afraid. Ask Jeremy
    And not strictly true. Taking the US as the primary example, where the constitution actually has a Free Speech amendment and one that is held up by people as a major plank of US life. The right is not absolute, as case law has shown. Not all forms of speech are protected equally.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    For anyone interested in the delays to Tottenhams new stadium, I was told back in April by one of our former sparks who works there that there was no chance of it being finished before the start of the new season. He said back then that he would be surprised if it would be ready before Christmas. The site has been working 24/7 for months now and pays the highest trade rate in London. Due to this it has sucked labour off of other projects in London. He has been working 7 days a week now for 6 months and is earning well over £2,000 per week just as a spark. The Main Contractor who is MACE will be liable for massive LADs so it would not surprise me if they are in financial trouble now. The latest from the site is that they do not expect it to be complete before February 2019.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    Yes @Charles' points and yours about creating some kind of "other" with the name of Israel are well made.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    Electoral Calculus says Labour would be the largest party based on that VI.
    Tories and Labour would be tied on 290 each in the straight Tory to Labour swing but the Tories would lose 4 to the LDs taking them down to 286.

    The key is the UKIP vote up 3% on 2017 to 5%, without that the Tories would be on 40% and just ahead of Labour in voteshare
    ... assuming UKIP have only gained from the Tories.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Scott_P said:
    He may just have found the perfect form of words to keep this controversy going.
    I think the controversy will continue due to his non declaration of hospitality. Unless we believe that this was below the 660 threshold. I’m not sure how believable that is when another parliamentarian did declare.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just because Stokes has been found not guilty doesn't mean he isn't coming out of all this looking like a grade A arsehole. That's outwith the remit of the court to decide, of course.

    Dunno. It still seems as if – at its core – he was defending those two gay men (who, bizarrely, never came to the stand I don't think?). They have told the papers exactly that so the case isn't clear cut. Also, Ali and Hale were brandishing weapons, Stokes unarmed.
    Hale was acquitted on the judge's orders. If wielding an iron bar and trying to hit someone with it didn't constitute affray, it seems reasonable to wonder what is?
  • currystar said:

    For anyone interested in the delays to Tottenhams new stadium, I was told back in April by one of our former sparks who works there that there was no chance of it being finished before the start of the new season. He said back then that he would be surprised if it would be ready before Christmas. The site has been working 24/7 for months now and pays the highest trade rate in London. Due to this it has sucked labour off of other projects in London. He has been working 7 days a week now for 6 months and is earning well over £2,000 per week just as a spark. The Main Contractor who is MACE will be liable for massive LADs so it would not surprise me if they are in financial trouble now. The latest from the site is that they do not expect it to be complete before February 2019.

    I've heard much the same from someone else who works on that job
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136

    Sandpit said:

    felix said:

    Danny565 said:

    How many Munich terrorists are buried in the cemetery where the wreath was laid in 2014?
    Clue it's less than 1

    You have lost - Corbyn is a national joke and unfit for office
    The man "unfit for office" but nevertheless on course to be PM according to today's BMG poll....
    Indeed - I'm not confident he'd win a vote of confidence in Parliament from his own MPs let alone the opposition when push comes to shove.
    If Boris Johnson wins the next Conservative leadership contest, both main parties might simultaneously be led by men who the majority of their own MPs have no confidence in them.
    The difference being that the Conservatives have an effective method by which the MPs can fire an unwanted leader, without reference to the membership.
    The MPs will have quite a reckoning to face if they get rid of a leader who the members adore.
    Hence the secret ballot.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,756
    @BJO

    I note you have quoted Skawkbox as a source for a pro-Corbyn slant on not very recent events.

    Would you like to make a guess how many accurate posts there are on Skawkbox?

    Hint - it's less than one.

    The key difference between Steve Wilson and Steve Bannon is that one is rich and famous and the other is still poor and laughed at.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    Last thing I'd want to do is defend Galloway, who is an arse of the highest order, but does the umlaut in noël indicate a missing 'e', eh?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748
    edited August 2018
    Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    We'll take it as read that pointing out that someone went to Eton trumps your right to be offended at its mention.

    Howzabout all those 'p' & 'n' & 'y' words? Does free speech trump folks' right to be offended at their use?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Scott_P said:
    Many sides of what? Or does he mean the people’s front of Judaea and the Judaean people’s front?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    Electoral Calculus says Labour would be the largest party based on that VI.
    Tories and Labour would be tied on 290 each in the straight Tory to Labour swing but the Tories would lose 4 to the LDs taking them down to 286.

    The key is the UKIP vote up 3% on 2017 to 5%, without that the Tories would be on 40% and just ahead of Labour in voteshare
    ... assuming UKIP have only gained from the Tories.
    Which we know from experience would be a false assumption.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    Electoral Calculus says Labour would be the largest party based on that VI.
    Tories and Labour would be tied on 290 each in the straight Tory to Labour swing but the Tories would lose 4 to the LDs taking them down to 286.

    The key is the UKIP vote up 3% on 2017 to 5%, without that the Tories would be on 40% and just ahead of Labour in voteshare
    ... assuming UKIP have only gained from the Tories.
    Yougov had 10% of 2017 Tory voters now voting UKIP, 5 times any Labour movement but on that poll May had picked up a few more 2017 Labour or LD voters to get to 39% rather than 37% in this poll
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    AndyJS said:

    "'What the hell are you up to?' Arson attacks draw Swedish PM's ire

    Stefan Löfven rebukes culprits after dozens of cars set alight in Gothenburg and Trollhättan"

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/14/swedish-pm-asks-arsonists-what-the-heck-are-you-doing-setting-fire-to-cars

    Is there a Swedish election in the offing? He is PM - why doesn't someone ask him why he is allowing it to happen?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    currystar said:

    For anyone interested in the delays to Tottenhams new stadium, I was told back in April by one of our former sparks who works there that there was no chance of it being finished before the start of the new season. He said back then that he would be surprised if it would be ready before Christmas. The site has been working 24/7 for months now and pays the highest trade rate in London. Due to this it has sucked labour off of other projects in London. He has been working 7 days a week now for 6 months and is earning well over £2,000 per week just as a spark. The Main Contractor who is MACE will be liable for massive LADs so it would not surprise me if they are in financial trouble now. The latest from the site is that they do not expect it to be complete before February 2019.

    Whoops, sounds like someone’s mucked up. Fair play to your spark mate on £2k a week though, when the project does finish he’ll be having a bloody good holiday!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    HYUFD said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 39% (+2)
    CON: 37% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (-)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    UKIP: 5% (+2)

    via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

    Tories would still be almost tied with Labour on that 2% swing to Labour but Corbyn would likely be PM propped up by the SNP as long as the LDs did not oppose him
    Electoral Calculus says Labour would be the largest party based on that VI.
    Tories and Labour would be tied on 290 each in the straight Tory to Labour swing but the Tories would lose 4 to the LDs taking them down to 286.

    The key is the UKIP vote up 3% on 2017 to 5%, without that the Tories would be on 40% and just ahead of Labour in voteshare
    ... assuming UKIP have only gained from the Tories.
    Which we know from experience would be a false assumption.
    Over 50% of 2015 UKIP voters voted Tory in 2017
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rkrkrk said:

    Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    There are lots of things you are not allowed to say, there are lots of ways freedom of speech is proscribed. Such as slander, libel, incitement to violence, defamation, false advertising, restrictions on reporting, official secrets etc. etc.
    Not really. In all those examples free speech is unfettered - but if you directly or indirectly damage someone there are consequences.

    TSE references the major exception - Holmes opinion from Schenk vs US: speech that is false and dangerous and with consequences is not protected under the First. Schenk was subsequently limited in Brandenburg vs Ohio to essentially incitement to lawless action.

    Aitkenson has been historically focused on blasphemy - speech which is offensive but where it’s difficult to prove actual harm caused. He’s deeply concerned about the reintroduction of those medieval laws and customs
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited August 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just because Stokes has been found not guilty doesn't mean he isn't coming out of all this looking like a grade A arsehole. That's outwith the remit of the court to decide, of course.

    Dunno. It still seems as if – at its core – he was defending those two gay men (who, bizarrely, never came to the stand I don't think?). They have told the papers exactly that so the case isn't clear cut. Also, Ali and Hale were brandishing weapons, Stokes unarmed.
    Hale was acquitted on the judge's orders. If wielding an iron bar and trying to hit someone with it didn't constitute affray, it seems reasonable to wonder what is?
    I mean apart from the smashed eye socket and various sundry other injuries, it seems that it was six of one and half a dozen of the other, and a sort of victimless crime, just some louts getting leery on a Saturday evening. Now of course that is behaviour we want to discourage, but I can see the reasoning of the outcome.

    Note: I initially wrote "just some lauts getting leery on a Saturday night"...
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    For anyone interested in the delays to Tottenhams new stadium, I was told back in April by one of our former sparks who works there that there was no chance of it being finished before the start of the new season. He said back then that he would be surprised if it would be ready before Christmas. The site has been working 24/7 for months now and pays the highest trade rate in London. Due to this it has sucked labour off of other projects in London. He has been working 7 days a week now for 6 months and is earning well over £2,000 per week just as a spark. The Main Contractor who is MACE will be liable for massive LADs so it would not surprise me if they are in financial trouble now. The latest from the site is that they do not expect it to be complete before February 2019.

    Whoops, sounds like someone’s mucked up. Fair play to your spark mate on £2k a week though, when the project does finish he’ll be having a bloody good holiday!
    I like the way Daniel Levy has said they have only just found out it was delayed.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    Last thing I'd want to do is defend Galloway, who is an arse of the highest order, but does the umlaut in noël indicate a missing 'e', eh?
    No, that is the French system, which is different from the German system. I think the EU is getting round to harmonising its usage, but it does take a bit of time. And purists like Johnson, Gove and Mogg don`t want it done anyway. That is the real reason we are leaving the EU. I can`t think of any other reason.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    You're right - I was thinking of a diphthong - probably a typo by Galloway. (Someone used it yesterday on Israel, so I'm guessing it's a "thing" with a certain kind of nutter)
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    Last thing I'd want to do is defend Galloway, who is an arse of the highest order, but does the umlaut in noël indicate a missing 'e', eh?
    Good point. Apparently it’s called a dieresis and could apply, but in a google search for Israel and dieresis nothing jumps out as this being a standard use.

    http://www.truncatedthoughts.com/2007/12/nol-nol.html
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stokes trial - both not guilty

    Called it a week or so ago :)
    Told you. It always looks grim because the prosecution goes first.
    I will also share in that credit.

    DavidL, a lawyer, assured me I was wrong.

    I was right!
    I freely admit to being gobsmacked by that decision. It is not what I expected at all. To me the video evidence alone was ample to justify a charge of affray. Add in him giving evidence about drinking a bucket load, not actually recalling parts of the night's events and not calling the gay couple he was supposedly protecting it seemed to me that no defence had really been mounted at all. I really don't understand it but from an England POV it is good news. Hopefully he has learned a lesson.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Scott_P said:
    Many sides of what? Or does he mean the people’s front of Judaea and the Judaean people’s front?
    I think he was alluding to Trump's 12/8/18 speech about Charlottesville, in which he blamed alt-right violence which led to the death of Heather Heyer on 'many sides'.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite_the_Right_rally
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    Last thing I'd want to do is defend Galloway, who is an arse of the highest order, but does the umlaut in noël indicate a missing 'e', eh?
    Good point. Apparently it’s called a dieresis and could apply, but in a google search for Israel and dieresis nothing jumps out as this being a standard use.

    http://www.truncatedthoughts.com/2007/12/nol-nol.html
    Well yes, quite. As I said, he's an arse of the highest order.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Typical nonsense from old Oxonian Rowan Atkinson. He’s lived a life of white privilege.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1029295116454907904?s=21

    He believes in free speech.

    That underpins our entire way of life

    I’m sorry, but it trumps your right not to be offended (no matter how offensive or hateful the terms used might be).

    Unfortunately free speech is a binary right: it either is or it isn’t.
    We'll take it as read that pointing out that someone went to Eton trumps your right to be offended at its mention.

    Howzabout all those 'p' & 'n' & 'y' words? Does free speech trump folks' right to be offended at their use?
    I'm not offended - I'm just curious that OGH finds the school that people went to worthy of anything. One can only assume he wants to categorise people he disagrees with in what he perceives as a negative way. I'd rather judge people on their character and their actions than their school

    On the 'p' 'n' and 'y' words you can say them, and people have the right to be offended at their use. I don't think people should say them but it should be a matter of self-restraint rather than law.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    DavidL said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stokes trial - both not guilty

    Called it a week or so ago :)
    Told you. It always looks grim because the prosecution goes first.
    I will also share in that credit.

    DavidL, a lawyer, assured me I was wrong.

    I was right!
    I freely admit to being gobsmacked by that decision. It is not what I expected at all. To me the video evidence alone was ample to justify a charge of affray. Add in him giving evidence about drinking a bucket load, not actually recalling parts of the night's events and not calling the gay couple he was supposedly protecting it seemed to me that no defence had really been mounted at all. I really don't understand it but from an England POV it is good news. Hopefully he has learned a lesson.
    When I was in work the other day, and saw on my phone that he claimed he had not abused that bouncer and had in fact been "looking up at the sky talking to God", I laughed out loud.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just because Stokes has been found not guilty doesn't mean he isn't coming out of all this looking like a grade A arsehole. That's outwith the remit of the court to decide, of course.

    Dunno. It still seems as if – at its core – he was defending those two gay men (who, bizarrely, never came to the stand I don't think?). They have told the papers exactly that so the case isn't clear cut. Also, Ali and Hale were brandishing weapons, Stokes unarmed.
    Hale was acquitted on the judge's orders. If wielding an iron bar and trying to hit someone with it didn't constitute affray, it seems reasonable to wonder what is?
    I mean apart from the smashed eye socket and various sundry other injuries, it seems that it was six of one and half a dozen of the other, and a sort of victimless crime, just some louts getting leery on a Saturday evening. Now of course that is behaviour we want to discourage, but I can see the reasoning of the outcome.

    Note: I initially wrote "just some lauts getting leery on a Saturday night"...
    ... um... lauts?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    PClipp said:

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    Last thing I'd want to do is defend Galloway, who is an arse of the highest order, but does the umlaut in noël indicate a missing 'e', eh?
    No, that is the French system, which is different from the German system. I think the EU is getting round to harmonising its usage, but it does take a bit of time. And purists like Johnson, Gove and Mogg don`t want it done anyway. That is the real reason we are leaving the EU. I can`t think of any other reason.
    It's âs goød a rëason às any suggésted by Vöte Leãve, ï güess!
  • currystar said:

    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    For anyone interested in the delays to Tottenhams new stadium, I was told back in April by one of our former sparks who works there that there was no chance of it being finished before the start of the new season. He said back then that he would be surprised if it would be ready before Christmas. The site has been working 24/7 for months now and pays the highest trade rate in London. Due to this it has sucked labour off of other projects in London. He has been working 7 days a week now for 6 months and is earning well over £2,000 per week just as a spark. The Main Contractor who is MACE will be liable for massive LADs so it would not surprise me if they are in financial trouble now. The latest from the site is that they do not expect it to be complete before February 2019.

    Whoops, sounds like someone’s mucked up. Fair play to your spark mate on £2k a week though, when the project does finish he’ll be having a bloody good holiday!
    I like the way Daniel Levy has said they have only just found out it was delayed.
    Popbitch predicted over a year ago that it wouldn't be finished on time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    You're right - I was thinking of a diphthong - probably a typo by Galloway. (Someone used it yesterday on Israel, so I'm guessing it's a "thing" with a certain kind of nutter)
    It's like Zoë. Anorak was right on the meaning but not the name. If Galloway knows what he's writing then it indicates he's pronouncing Israel like in this song:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-TAlS7J9Ofk
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    currystar said:

    Sandpit said:

    currystar said:

    For anyone interested in the delays to Tottenhams new stadium, I was told back in April by one of our former sparks who works there that there was no chance of it being finished before the start of the new season. He said back then that he would be surprised if it would be ready before Christmas. The site has been working 24/7 for months now and pays the highest trade rate in London. Due to this it has sucked labour off of other projects in London. He has been working 7 days a week now for 6 months and is earning well over £2,000 per week just as a spark. The Main Contractor who is MACE will be liable for massive LADs so it would not surprise me if they are in financial trouble now. The latest from the site is that they do not expect it to be complete before February 2019.

    Whoops, sounds like someone’s mucked up. Fair play to your spark mate on £2k a week though, when the project does finish he’ll be having a bloody good holiday!
    I like the way Daniel Levy has said they have only just found out it was delayed.
    The only way that’s true is if those under him were sh1t-scared to break the bad news to the boss, and he couldn’t be bothered to ask the right questions of the right people. After all, it’s not as if it’s a major project affecting the criticality of his business.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    PClipp said:

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    Last thing I'd want to do is defend Galloway, who is an arse of the highest order, but does the umlaut in noël indicate a missing 'e', eh?
    No, that is the French system, which is different from the German system. I think the EU is getting round to harmonising its usage, but it does take a bit of time. And purists like Johnson, Gove and Mogg don`t want it done anyway. That is the real reason we are leaving the EU. I can`t think of any other reason.
    It's âs goød a rëason às any suggésted by Vöte Leãve, ï güess!
    It's a diaeresis and the New Yorker in particular uses it whenever two vowels are together but pronounced separately (eg coöperation).

    https://www.newyorker.com/culture/culture-desk/the-curse-of-the-diaeresis

    It's hideous.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    The umlaut indicates a missing e. For example Muenchen loses the first e and becomes u with an umlaut. At best this is a typo but we have to expect from Galloway it is some sort of slur on Israel by germanifying it’s name.
    You're right - I was thinking of a diphthong - probably a typo by Galloway. (Someone used it yesterday on Israel, so I'm guessing it's a "thing" with a certain kind of nutter)
    my guess is something to do with its common usage in German.
  • NEW THREAD

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    Scott_P said:
    He may just have found the perfect form of words to keep this controversy going.
    I think the controversy will continue due to his non declaration of hospitality. Unless we believe that this was below the 660 threshold. I’m not sure how believable that is when another parliamentarian did declare.
    You really think people will get excited about that?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    malcolmg said:

    Don't worry. Diane Abbott will sort it all out. She's still Right On. But doesn't have the baggage of attending PLO/IRA funerals. Doesn't have the baggage of being a Man. Or being White. But isn't a headbanger having sent her sprog to a posh school to chase personal aspiration. Isn't as shrill and hectoring as too many female politicians are.

    Diane Abbott. Did you catch the name? Abbott.

    That would drive even me to vote Tory
    Those are some strong words!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    Met Police - collided with cyclist and pedestrians. Late 20's and suspicion of terrorist incident and he is not co-operating with the police

    The driver has said

    ‘He was there, but doesn’t think he was involved’
    It will go on and on. Corbyn is now a national joke
    It's really interesting - the first punch that seems to have landed on Corbyn is the one where he has punched himself in the face.

    That line will haunt him. It's his own, self-inflicted and self-penned "economical with the truth".
    It's a funny meme, but let's not get carried away. people had fun with his 'only labour can be trusted to unlock the potential of BAME people' too.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    You know, there's been plenty of talk of the danger of Boris re-inventing himself as the Trump of British politics.

    After this week I think I can safely say the Trump of British politics already exists, and his name is Jeremy Corbyn.

    In manner and policy they are different, very different, but the parallels with their approach to media and their supporters is spot on.

    But no reason we cannot have two Trumps. Over to you Boris.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    HYUFD said:

    As long as Corbyn has the membership of the Labour Party behind him he cannot be moved

    He does and he won't.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    Scott_P said:
    That makes it sound like the graves of the Israeli athletes are in the same cemetery.
    In his eyes, they don't count. They weren't the heroes fighting oppression.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Charles said:

    Anorak said:

    This is the chap the cult were campaigning to reinstate to the Labour Party. Mental. And what's with the umlaut?
    https://twitter.com/georgegalloway/status/1029078880244654080

    I guess it makes it sound more like Handel’s Messiah (“Lord God of Is-rae-al”)?

    It also makes it look “other” to an Anglo- Saxon audience not familiar with the umlaut
    It's not an umlaut, it's a diaresis. It still makes no sense unless GG is attempting to make it more like the Arabic pronunciation but that seems a bit mental even for him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Alonso to call it a day as far as F1 is concerned.
This discussion has been closed.