I think the main impact is that it cuts Labour our of votes which they might otherwise be able to target: Jewish voters, older voters, voters who expect the PM to be able to apply some moral clarity to the world.
The first two groups lean heavily conservative (Finchley should be a safe hold), and the third is tiny.
spoken like a socialist
tbh this all seems a bit cynical at best, and verging on unintentional antisemitism with both sides treating Jews as a block vote. Of course, there is a real tension because normal demographic analysis does lump voters together in various ways, no doubt wrongly at the individual level.
It's the other way round - the Jewish vote is not a 'block' vote, which is exactly why it's unhelpful from Labour's point of view that Jezza is going out of his way to make them so (and not on his side!)
Yes, it was that which first got Ken into trouble a few years back.
I think the main impact is that it cuts Labour our of votes which they might otherwise be able to target: Jewish voters, older voters, voters who expect the PM to be able to apply some moral clarity to the world.
The first two groups lean heavily conservative (Finchley should be a safe hold), and the third is tiny.
spoken like a socialist
tbh this all seems a bit cynical at best, and verging on unintentional antisemitism with both sides treating Jews as a block vote. Of course, there is a real tension because normal demographic analysis does lump voters together in various ways, no doubt wrongly at the individual level.
Lol, I went the extra mile to keep Corbyn out at GE17.
The vote skewing Tory towards older cohorts is also well documented.
Just saying it'd be daft to rule out the possibility of a Corbyn Gov't at this point in time just because it isn't what I want to happen.
Far from ruling it out, it is surely odds on.
All things being equal.
Of course it is difficult to make predictions for an election still 4 years away, but the polling is consistently telling us that Labour will form the next government, possibly with some agreement from the SNP.
I wouldn't rule anything out, but I think it's unlikely that Jeremy Corbyn will become Prime Minister.
I think the main impact is that it cuts Labour our of votes which they might otherwise be able to target: Jewish voters, older voters, voters who expect the PM to be able to apply some moral clarity to the world.
The first two groups lean heavily conservative (Finchley should be a safe hold), and the third is tiny.
spoken like a socialist
tbh this all seems a bit cynical at best, and verging on unintentional antisemitism with both sides treating Jews as a block vote. Of course, there is a real tension because normal demographic analysis does lump voters together in various ways, no doubt wrongly at the individual level.
Lol, I went the extra mile to keep Corbyn out at GE17.
The vote skewing Tory towards older cohorts is also well documented.
Just saying it'd be daft to rule out the possibility of a Corbyn Gov't at this point in time just because it isn't what I want to happen.
Far from ruling it out, it is surely odds on.
All things being equal.
Of course it is difficult to make predictions for an election still 4 years away, but the polling is consistently telling us that Labour will form the next government, possibly with some agreement from the SNP.
I wouldn't rule anything out, but I think it's unlikely that Jeremy Corbyn will become Prime Minister.
Number Cruncher Politics @NCPoliticsUK Our latest voting intention poll gives Labour a two point lead:
LAB 40 (+2) CON 38 (-5) LD 8 (=) UKIP 5 (+2) SNP 4 (=) GRN 2 (-1)
Fieldwork 9th-13th Aug (changes vs 27th Mar to 5th Apr)
PB Tory despair Fieldwork all during Wreath Smear.
People dont care or dont believe
Change is coming.
Change, as you well know, can be for better or for worse.
I see little reason how having a passive anti-Semite as PM, especially one who seems to quite like those who dislike us, will be a change for the better.
Especially when he comes accompanied with addled followers such as yourself.
Last night I watched "Himmler: the decent one". I might suggest that you do the same and see where acceptance of anti-Semitism leads. Not that you care ...
I think the main impact is that it cuts Labour our of votes which they might otherwise be able to target: Jewish voters, older voters, voters who expect the PM to be able to apply some moral clarity to the world.
The first two groups lean heavily conservative (Finchley should be a safe hold), and the third is tiny.
spoken like a socialist
tbh this all seems a bit cynical at best, and verging on unintentional antisemitism with both sides treating Jews as a block vote. Of course, there is a real tension because normal demographic analysis does lump voters together in various ways, no doubt wrongly at the individual level.
Lol, I went the extra mile to keep Corbyn out at GE17.
The vote skewing Tory towards older cohorts is also well documented.
Just saying it'd be daft to rule out the possibility of a Corbyn Gov't at this point in time just because it isn't what I want to happen.
Far from ruling it out, it is surely odds on.
All things being equal.
Of course it is difficult to make predictions for an election still 4 years away, but the polling is consistently telling us that Labour will form the next government, possibly with some agreement from the SNP.
I wouldn't rule anything out, but I think it's unlikely that Jeremy Corbyn will become Prime Minister.
Why?
Because he is so poorly rated by the public, and that's in mid-term. He's even worse rated than Theresa May.
I think the main impact is that it cuts Labour our of votes which they might otherwise be able to target: Jewish voters, older voters, voters who expect the PM to be able to apply some moral clarity to the world.
The first two groups lean heavily conservative (Finchley should be a safe hold), and the third is tiny.
spoken like a socialist
tbh this all seems a bit cynical at best, and verging on unintentional antisemitism with both sides treating Jews as a block vote. Of course, there is a real tension because normal demographic analysis does lump voters together in various ways, no doubt wrongly at the individual level.
Lol, I went the extra mile to keep Corbyn out at GE17.
The vote skewing Tory towards older cohorts is also well documented.
Just saying it'd be daft to rule out the possibility of a Corbyn Gov't at this point in time just because it isn't what I want to happen.
Far from ruling it out, it is surely odds on.
All things being equal.
Of course it is difficult to make predictions for an election still 4 years away, but the polling is consistently telling us that Labour will form the next government, possibly with some agreement from the SNP.
Totally agree on the surfeit of racing. Far too much. And I fear that the AW has some tangential link to the need for bookies to run racing all through the evening to get punters in for FOBTs although I appreciate they have cartoon racing for that as well.
Having said that, take out the AW and there is still too much racing.
AW has a role and I wouldn't want it gone but there seems to be an AW fixture every day and sometimes two.
The changes to FOBTs will impact the high street bookies. At the moment the shops are open from 8am to 11pm here in East Ham High Street and there are players on the FOBTs from dawn to dusk and beyond. In a retail commercial sector being hollowed out by other factors the loss of a number of betting shops isn't going to do wonders for commercial rates and rents.
When does the change take place and what did they decide in the end?
Totally agree on the surfeit of racing. Far too much. And I fear that the AW has some tangential link to the need for bookies to run racing all through the evening to get punters in for FOBTs although I appreciate they have cartoon racing for that as well.
Having said that, take out the AW and there is still too much racing.
AW has a role and I wouldn't want it gone but there seems to be an AW fixture every day and sometimes two.
The changes to FOBTs will impact the high street bookies. At the moment the shops are open from 8am to 11pm here in East Ham High Street and there are players on the FOBTs from dawn to dusk and beyond. In a retail commercial sector being hollowed out by other factors the loss of a number of betting shops isn't going to do wonders for commercial rates and rents.
I'd say it will be good for independents as it will force landlords to be more realistic with high street rents if they can't find a huge chain of bookies to take up empty units for high prices.
I think the main impact is that it cuts Labour our of votes which they might otherwise be able to target: Jewish voters, older voters, voters who expect the PM to be able to apply some moral clarity to the world.
The first two groups lean heavily conservative (Finchley should be a safe hold), and the third is tiny.
spoken like a socialist
tbh this all seems a bit cynical at best, and verging on unintentional antisemitism with both sides treating Jews as a block vote. Of course, there is a real tension because normal demographic analysis does lump voters together in various ways, no doubt wrongly at the individual level.
Lol, I went the extra mile to keep Corbyn out at GE17.
The vote skewing Tory towards older cohorts is also well documented.
Just saying it'd be daft to rule out the possibility of a Corbyn Gov't at this point in time just because it isn't what I want to happen.
Far from ruling it out, it is surely odds on.
All things being equal.
Of course it is difficult to make predictions for an election still 4 years away, but the polling is consistently telling us that Labour will form the next government, possibly with some agreement from the SNP.
I wouldn't rule anything out, but I think it's unlikely that Jeremy Corbyn will become Prime Minister.
Why?
Because he is so poorly rated by the public, and that's in mid-term. He's even worse rated than Theresa May.
Yes. Aware of that. But it doesn’t seem to be enough of a drag on Labour VI.
And Theresa May or Boris are both awful and repellent in their own ways.
I think the main impact is that it cuts Labour our of votes which they might otherwise be able to target: Jewish voters, older voters, voters who expect the PM to be able to apply some moral clarity to the world.
The first two groups lean heavily conservative (Finchley should be a safe hold), and the third is tiny.
spoken like a socialist
tbh this all seems a bit cynical at best, and verging on unintentional antisemitism with both sides treating Jews as a block vote. Of course, there is a real tension because normal demographic analysis does lump voters together in various ways, no doubt wrongly at the individual level.
Lol, I went the extra mile to keep Corbyn out at GE17.
The vote skewing Tory towards older cohorts is also well documented.
Just saying it'd be daft to rule out the possibility of a Corbyn Gov't at this point in time just because it isn't what I want to happen.
Far from ruling it out, it is surely odds on.
All things being equal.
Of course it is difficult to make predictions for an election still 4 years away, but the polling is consistently telling us that Labour will form the next government, possibly with some agreement from the SNP.
I wouldn't rule anything out, but I think it's unlikely that Jeremy Corbyn will become Prime Minister.
Why?
Because he is so poorly rated by the public, and that's in mid-term. He's even worse rated than Theresa May.
Yes. Aware of that. But it doesn’t seem to be enough of a drag on Labour VI.
And Theresa May or Boris are both awful and repellent in their own ways.
Again, Corbyn is propped up by Brexit.
Certainly, I think that Labour has a high floor, but also a low ceiling.
Incidentally, it looks like the Conservatives are 2% ahead with YouGov.
Public opinion moves slowly - cant fatten a pig in a day.
Corbyn toasting is slow.
Slow or in reverse? Number Cruncher Politics @NCPoliticsUK Our latest voting intention poll gives Labour a two point lead:
LAB 40 (+2) CON 38 (-5) LD 8 (=) UKIP 5 (+2) SNP 4 (=) GRN 2 (-1)
Fieldwork 9th-13th Aug (changes vs 27th Mar to 5th Apr)
JCICIPM?
Hmm. We seem to be witnessing Teflon Jezza here. His opponents must be concerned that the following characterisation has taken hold in the public consciousness: that in his youth he was merely a champion of unfashionable causes but has now matured into a lovable old granddad. If so then his opponents might truly be stuffed.
But is he a useful idiot and does the real threat lie elsewhere?
Having spent two years saying he's an evil terrorist sympathiser it's going to be hard for the Tories to recalibrate to say, oh well, maybe not, but the REAL power is XXX, look at who XXX was photographed with in 1993. At a certain point, if you fire off salvos every day, people just lose the will to follow them.
I certainly believe Trump is a urophiliac and that Putin has evidence of this.It is Trump's relationship with urine that would be his downfall and Trump knows it.
On the optimistic side (ie. JC not becoming PM): 1. He will be under more scrutiny in next campaign - a lot more. The ammo is piling up as well. 2. Repeating the triumphant UK tour of 2017 to achieve higher levels of support will be difficult. In addition the contradictions within his "coalition" that was hidden by fudge are becoming clearer. 3. The psychology of feeling moral superiority over your opponent is important. The Tories are often (rightly) on the back foot but JC as an opponent will lift their morale and hence effectiveness in a campaign. 4. Labour may not hold together. There is a background civil war with frequent skirmishes. There is a good chance that things will escalate. Same is true of the Tories of course. If majority of PLP feel that party organisation is gone for good they would be wise to strike out and become official opposition for a couple of years to cement a new centre left party. I admit this is a long shot but significant internal strife is the alternative.
After three terms, a party loses. These cultists have no idea about political history or how electorates work or, well, frankly, how to sit on the toilet the right way around.
As I recall from wikipedia Brown wrote his doctorate on the history of the Labour Party in Scotland - definitely a man who knows his party inside and out.
Not to say he has the solutions for the party now of course, but even so people really don't like it when former leaders chime in, do they?
I preferred him to Blair, frankly, certainly style wise.
I think it's disgusting. But I guess the new members, the £3 brigade and the returning Trots and anti-semites, don't give two hoots for the recent history of the party, because everything is reborn comrade and all will be well.
Given how many pre 2015 members voted for Corbyn, it can’t be only those people who don’t have much time for the recent history of Labour. In fact, given how much of the public have an unfavourable image of both Blair and Brown it seems there are quite a few people who don’t have time for New Labour anymore.
Comments
JCWNBPM.
And Theresa May or Boris are both awful and repellent in their own ways.
Again, Corbyn is propped up by Brexit.
Incidentally, it looks like the Conservatives are 2% ahead with YouGov.
NEW THREAD
1. He will be under more scrutiny in next campaign - a lot more. The ammo is piling up as well.
2. Repeating the triumphant UK tour of 2017 to achieve higher levels of support will be difficult. In addition the contradictions within his "coalition" that was hidden by fudge are becoming clearer.
3. The psychology of feeling moral superiority over your opponent is important. The Tories are often (rightly) on the back foot but JC as an opponent will lift their morale and hence effectiveness in a campaign.
4. Labour may not hold together. There is a background civil war with frequent skirmishes. There is a good chance that things will escalate. Same is true of the Tories of course. If majority of PLP feel that party organisation is gone for good they would be wise to strike out and become official opposition for a couple of years to cement a new centre left party. I admit this is a long shot but significant internal strife is the alternative.