politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Last rights? Are UKIP set to revive?

SystemSystem Posts: 11,008
edited August 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Last rights? Are UKIP set to revive?

It is a regular feature of horror films that, just when you think it has been destroyed, the monster lurches back into life one last time to terrorise the valiant hero.  Right now the corpse of UKIP is lying slouched in the corner but with its poll ratings a quantum level higher than they were two months ago its body is twitching as if an electrical stimulus is being pumped through it.  Can it return from the dead?

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    If Farage forms an I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP type party (perhaps with Banks), that'll cook UKIP's goose, I suspect.

  • Options
    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Farage could emerge as the leader of the Conservative WTO Brexit Group.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,158
    Oh God I hope not. And that the Tories have the good sense not to allow entryism by UKIP supporters.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    edited August 2018
    It must be tempting for enterprising Labour entryists to pull the same trick with UKIP and try to put some shape on the party in order to split the Tory vote.

    Good thought provoking article from Alastair.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God I hope not. And that the Tories have the good sense not to allow entryism by UKIP supporters.

    UKIP should be there at about 7%. The certified loonies deserve a home! Those who think they have been "betrayed" will find that home.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Lost £1 on the football, I should stick to the politics...
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Freggles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Well what a surprise:

    https://twitter.com/sanderwagner/status/1030785294222741504?s=21

    I wonder who could possibly be so invested in a nationalist eurosceptic revival.
    The fingerprint database points to a Russian born in St.Petersberg.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,292
    edited August 2018
    Astonishing to think that before the 2017 election Theresa was widely held as the darling of Brexit. These days, of course, she's regarded as a nincompoop and traitor on the issue, so I can imagine a large wodge of Leavers re-defecting back to UKIP if she's still around. If Boris is leader it will be a different matter, with Banks and Farage possibly announcing themselves as his sponsors.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    Mr. Dawning, early on in his real reign, Basil II lost a battle and then went to church, weeping.

    The early part of his reign was not indicative of how the rest of it would turn out.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God I hope not. And that the Tories have the good sense not to allow entryism by UKIP supporters.

    Too late on the latter.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Astonishing to think that before the 2017 election Theresa was widely held as the darling of Brexit. These days, of course, she's regarded as a nincompoop and traitor on the issue, so I can imagine a large wodge of Leavers re-defecting back to UKIP if she's still around. If Boris is leader it will be a different matter, with Banks and Farage possibly announcing themselves as his sponsors.

    Your last sentence would see the party split

    Banks and Farage are not welcome at all.

    And I doubt Boris would be so foolish as he needs moderate consevative mps to support his bid
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    David_Evershed said:

    Farage could emerge as the leader of the Conservative WTO Brexit Group.

    Or English National Party.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    rottenborough said:

    David_Evershed said:

    Farage could emerge as the leader of the Conservative WTO Brexit Group.

    Or English National Party.
    JRM fulfils that role. Farage is not an mp
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1030770461670600705
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1030770461670600705

    Uncle Len's article a sign that Corbynites are getting into hubris phase? Their mouths salivating at the prospect of dismantling the entire economic system of the UK.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Dawning, early on in his real reign, Basil II lost a battle and then went to church, weeping.

    The early part of his reign was not indicative of how the rest of it would turn out.

    You don't have to remind any of us about Basil II.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Interesting. I suspect there will be some traction for Farage but it's a big test for BJ to see if he can keep away from it. On the votes side the likeliest outcome would be negative for the blues and by default positive for Corbyn. However, I'm not sure - simple analyses often fall foul of the real voters. It's pretty clear why several of the early contributors on here from the left are keen on it.

    Puts me in mind of the last election which most of us got pretty wrong.

    The most interesting recent polling for me is the strong support for getting a deal, almost any deal, done and moving on. Politicians would do well to heed that.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    radsatser said:

    James Wharton lost Stockton South by less than the 2017 UKIP vote there, which I would think will now be considerably strengthened with the return of those Conservatives who gave Theresa May and the Conservatives the benefit of the doubt in 2017, and now fell absolutely betrayed, making it highly unlikely this seat will return to the Conservatives any time soon.

    Stockton South:

    2015:

    Conservative James Wharton 24,221
    Labour Louise Baldock 19,175
    UKIP Ted Strike 5,480

    2017:

    Labour Paul Williams 26,102
    Conservative James Wharton 25,214
    UKIP David Outterside 1,186

    It looks like the UKIP vote was going mainly to Labour which completely destroys your theory.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    felix said:

    Interesting. I suspect there will be some traction for Farage but it's a big test for BJ to see if he can keep away from it. On the votes side the likeliest outcome would be negative for the blues and by default positive for Corbyn. However, I'm not sure - simple analyses often fall foul of the real voters. It's pretty clear why several of the early contributors on here from the left are keen on it.

    Puts me in mind of the last election which most of us got pretty wrong.

    The most interesting recent polling for me is the strong support for getting a deal, almost any deal, done and moving on. Politicians would do well to heed that.

    Very much my viewpoint
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    felix said:

    The most interesting recent polling for me is the strong support for getting a deal, almost any deal, done and moving on. Politicians would do well to heed that.

    I don't think the poll you're referring to shows that at all.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    UKIP has a handful of members.

    It's finances are disastrous.

    It will be lucky to field 20 candidates next time out.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,051
    williamglenn said:

    radsatser said:

    James Wharton lost Stockton South by less than the 2017 UKIP vote there, which I would think will now be considerably strengthened with the return of those Conservatives who gave Theresa May and the Conservatives the benefit of the doubt in 2017, and now fell absolutely betrayed, making it highly unlikely this seat will return to the Conservatives any time soon.

    Stockton South:

    2015:

    Conservative James Wharton 24,221
    Labour Louise Baldock 19,175
    UKIP Ted Strike 5,480

    2017:

    Labour Paul Williams 26,102
    Conservative James Wharton 25,214
    UKIP David Outterside 1,186

    It looks like the UKIP vote was going mainly to Labour which completely destroys your theory.
    Compare with adjacent Middlesbrough South:

    2015
    Lab 19,193
    Con 16,925
    UKIP 6,935

    2017
    Con 23,643
    Lab 22,623

    Different effects in different constituencies plus the effects of various other issues.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930
    williamglenn said:

    radsatser said:

    James Wharton lost Stockton South by less than the 2017 UKIP vote there, which I would think will now be considerably strengthened with the return of those Conservatives who gave Theresa May and the Conservatives the benefit of the doubt in 2017, and now fell absolutely betrayed, making it highly unlikely this seat will return to the Conservatives any time soon.

    Stockton South:

    2015:

    Conservative James Wharton 24,221
    Labour Louise Baldock 19,175
    UKIP Ted Strike 5,480

    2017:

    Labour Paul Williams 26,102
    Conservative James Wharton 25,214
    UKIP David Outterside 1,186

    It looks like the UKIP vote was going mainly to Labour which completely destroys your theory.
    Williams is a local GP. Always worth a few votes for some reason.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    radsatser said:

    We are not talking about those who went to Labour or Conservative, but those who stayed with UKIP, who mostly the original Kippers many going back to 1992. Take it from me they either vote UKIP if there is an option, or Conservative if they see an advantage in doing so, they wouldn't be voting for Labour if it was compulsory to vote.

    Original Kippers going back to 1992 are so few as to be electorally irrelevant. It's only the ones from the 2010s surge that really count, and 2017 tested to destruction the idea that they were all lapsed Tories.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930
    The return of the Kippers was always likely, given that Brexit appears to be unravelling.

    Their Russian string-pullers must be getting worried that the EU won’t unravel as they’d p[lanned.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    williamglenn said:

    radsatser said:

    James Wharton lost Stockton South by less than the 2017 UKIP vote there, which I would think will now be considerably strengthened with the return of those Conservatives who gave Theresa May and the Conservatives the benefit of the doubt in 2017, and now fell absolutely betrayed, making it highly unlikely this seat will return to the Conservatives any time soon.

    Stockton South:

    2015:

    Conservative James Wharton 24,221
    Labour Louise Baldock 19,175
    UKIP Ted Strike 5,480

    2017:

    Labour Paul Williams 26,102
    Conservative James Wharton 25,214
    UKIP David Outterside 1,186

    It looks like the UKIP vote was going mainly to Labour which completely destroys your theory.
    Nice to see such a quick statistical justification for my hunch.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    williamglenn said:

    felix said:

    The most interesting recent polling for me is the strong support for getting a deal, almost any deal, done and moving on. Politicians would do well to heed that.

    I don't think the poll you're referring to shows that at all.
    Of course you don't.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    edited August 2018
    MarqueeMark said:

    UKIP has a handful of members.

    It's finances are disastrous.

    It will be lucky to field 20 candidates next time out.

    It needs help from experienced politicians to raise funds, select good candidates, recruit local activists, run campaigns and stand in say 200 seats. It won't gain any seats but it will split the Tory vote.

    Who benefits and is best placed to provide that help? Not the Tories of course. Answer - the Labour party - but it would have to be covert with no known names.

    EDIT: And it would have to be focused on Tory seats - the great betrayers.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930
    edited August 2018
    Thank.... something...... for that. Wicket. Rahane ct Cook b Broad.

    Essex rules!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    OldKingCole said:

    Thank.... something...... for that. Wicket. Rahane ct Cook b Broad.

    Essex rules!

    Fantastic catch from Cook at first slip.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    Also will be interesting to see if Farage is met with counter demonstrations fromthe left
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930
    Sandpit said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Thank.... something...... for that. Wicket. Rahane ct Cook b Broad.

    Essex rules!

    Fantastic catch from Cook at first slip.
    To be fair, it’s about time he hung on to a difficult one.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    Also will be interesting to see if Farage is met with counter demonstrations fromthe left

    Who was the Prussian aristocrat who thought he could ride the tiger that was Hitler?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    We could have a repeat of the referendum campaign farce with Boris and Farage doing rival bus tours at the same time.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Barnesian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    UKIP has a handful of members.

    It's finances are disastrous.

    It will be lucky to field 20 candidates next time out.

    It needs help from experienced politicians to raise funds, select good candidates, recruit local activists, run campaigns and stand in say 200 seats. It won't gain any seats but it will split the Tory vote.

    Who benefits and is best placed to provide that help? Not the Tories of course. Answer - the Labour party - but it would have to be covert with no known names.

    EDIT: And it would have to be focused on Tory seats - the great betrayers.
    As I said earlier it is all a bit too simplistic and obvious. I'm unconvinced the voters are that stupid. Even after months of splits, resignations, bad headlines, problems with the deal, etc, etc the opinion polls are pretty much static. Much will depend on the nature of the Brexit deal we end up with. Most voters want it over and done with and those that matter don't want Corbyn as PM. You clearly do. It's all theoretically possible but I don't buy it.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    This is Hungary, 2018:

    "What is new, however, is that the victims now also include Fidesz supporters who have been deemed ideologically inadequate. Or, put it more simply, they have been increasingly reluctant to follow the leader all the way to the extreme right. And so it is now their turn to be cast aside and to suffer for their ideological aberrations."

    http://hungarianspectrum.org/2018/08/15/viktor-orbans-modern-savonarola-hard-at-work/


    Sound familiar to anyone?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    Also will be interesting to see if Farage is met with counter demonstrations fromthe left

    Who was the Prussian aristocrat who thought he could ride the tiger that was Hitler?
    I am sure you are making a point but it is a bit beyond my uncomplicated mind !!!!!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    williamglenn said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    We could have a repeat of the referendum campaign farce with Boris and Farage doing rival bus tours at the same time.
    Without the 350 million for the NHS hopefully
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    Mr. NorthWales, such demonstrations against Farage would work to his advantage.
  • Options
    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God I hope not. And that the Tories have the good sense not to allow entryism by UKIP supporters.

    Too late, I think! They were taken over by UKIP policies long ago.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, such demonstrations against Farage would work to his advantage.

    Not sure to be honest
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    PClipp said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Oh God I hope not. And that the Tories have the good sense not to allow entryism by UKIP supporters.

    Too late, I think! They were taken over by UKIP policies long ago.
    Which policies
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,186
    williamglenn said:

    radsatser said:

    James Wharton lost Stockton South by less than the 2017 UKIP vote there, which I would think will now be considerably strengthened with the return of those Conservatives who gave Theresa May and the Conservatives the benefit of the doubt in 2017, and now fell absolutely betrayed, making it highly unlikely this seat will return to the Conservatives any time soon.

    Stockton South:

    2015:

    Conservative James Wharton 24,221
    Labour Louise Baldock 19,175
    UKIP Ted Strike 5,480

    2017:

    Labour Paul Williams 26,102
    Conservative James Wharton 25,214
    UKIP David Outterside 1,186

    It looks like the UKIP vote was going mainly to Labour which completely destroys your theory.
    We rightly anticipated the kipper vote to mostly go Tory. What we hadn't anticipated was how bad the Tory campaign was with an increasingly absent MP, and how good our own campaign was with a visible candidate carrying a few simple messsages.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    Looking at this clip I think Farage has lost his touch.

    https://news.sky.com/video/its-time-to-restart-the-brexit-campaign-11475674
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930
    edited August 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    Also will be interesting to see if Farage is met with counter demonstrations fromthe left

    Who was the Prussian aristocrat who thought he could ride the tiger that was Hitler?
    I am sure you are making a point but it is a bit beyond my uncomplicated mind !!!!!
    Sorry, Mr G. Hitler lost votes in the last democratic election in Weimar Germany, but was put into power as a result of wheeling and dealing by von Papen, a Prussian aristocrat who’thought he could control Hitler”!

    The French ambassador at about that time is quoted as saying that von Papen 'enjoyed the peculiarity of being taken seriously by neither his friends nor his enemies. He was reputed to be superficial, blundering, untrue, ambitious, vain, crafty and an intriguer’
    According to Time magazine.
    What makes me think of Boris?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    Mr. NorthWales, I'm pretty sure it'd serve Farage well.

    The demonstrations will attract more media attention, and consist largely of middle class metropolitan types from London, whereas Farage's power base comes from the working class, particularly from England (outside of London). The contrast will also help him.

    May is a terrible communicator. Corbyn sounds nice and is a good campaigner, but has an irascible temper and a bad habit of accidentally sharing stages with people of a dubious nature.

    Farage has many flaws, but he is a strong political communicator. After a couple of years of May's capitulation and prevarication and Corbyn's wishy-washy nonsense, there'll be, I suspect, a willing audience for Farage's brand of "Standing up for Britain" rhetoric (which is nice if you like slogans but rather lacking if you want a policy).

    If UKIP or an ersatz equivalent suddenly returned, it'd make the next election even trickier to call.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    Also will be interesting to see if Farage is met with counter demonstrations fromthe left

    Who was the Prussian aristocrat who thought he could ride the tiger that was Hitler?
    I am sure you are making a point but it is a bit beyond my uncomplicated mind !!!!!
    Sorry, Mr G. Hitler lost votes in the last democratic election in Weimar Germany, but was put into power as a result of wheeling and dealing by von Papen, a Prussian aristocrat who’thopught he could control Hitler”!
    Well I learn something every day but then that is the way to an open mind hopefully.

    Thank you for your explanation
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, I'm pretty sure it'd serve Farage well.

    The demonstrations will attract more media attention, and consist largely of middle class metropolitan types from London, whereas Farage's power base comes from the working class, particularly from England (outside of London). The contrast will also help him.

    May is a terrible communicator. Corbyn sounds nice and is a good campaigner, but has an irascible temper and a bad habit of accidentally sharing stages with people of a dubious nature.

    Farage has many flaws, but he is a strong political communicator. After a couple of years of May's capitulation and prevarication and Corbyn's wishy-washy nonsense, there'll be, I suspect, a willing audience for Farage's brand of "Standing up for Britain" rhetoric (which is nice if you like slogans but rather lacking if you want a policy).

    If UKIP or an ersatz equivalent suddenly returned, it'd make the next election even trickier to call.

    Good reasoning but Brexit is coming to a head in the next few months and once a deal or no deal is achieved I would expect there will be a collective sigh of relief and other things will rise to the top of the political agenda.

    The next election if it is 2022 will be in a very different climate
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    Mr. NorthWales, maybe.

    But with no deal there's disruption and Farage will attack Government incompetence for not planning for it (and with Grayling as Transport Secretary it's highly likely he'll have some easy hits). With a deal, given May's method of prevaricating then capitulating, there'll be red meat for Farage to throw his followers, influence given away, vassal state etc etc.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,930
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    Also will be interesting to see if Farage is met with counter demonstrations fromthe left

    Who was the Prussian aristocrat who thought he could ride the tiger that was Hitler?
    I am sure you are making a point but it is a bit beyond my uncomplicated mind !!!!!
    Sorry, Mr G. Hitler lost votes in the last democratic election in Weimar Germany, but was put into power as a result of wheeling and dealing by von Papen, a Prussian aristocrat who’thopught he could control Hitler”!
    Well I learn something every day but then that is the way to an open mind hopefully.

    Thank you for your explanation
    Appreciated. I’ve edited the orginal post, but it amplifies the situatiopn. IMHO, anyway.

    And I’m hoping for a link to some papers on Learning in the Elderly shortly! I’m not as moble as I’d like to be, but as you rightly say learning something is good.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    notme said:

    What’s this obsession with reverting back to the 1967 boundaries? From what I understand the 1967 war, Israel was invaded on multiple sides with the intention of wiping it out. Unfortunately it was better prepared than expected. It not only repelled the invaders it chased them back to the Jordan sea and then incorporated that land as their own. That’s not theft. That’s what happens when you pick a fight with someone who you think is weaker than you.

    While Israel may have been under various degrees of threat from mobilised neighbours, it struck first. Always best to be precise about these things.
    Depends how you define strike.

    Egypt and Israel were technically at war but with a ceasefire. Egypt cancelled the ceasefire and started a military blockade. Both of which are strikes. The latter has always been a casus belli.
    But not 'invaded on multiple sides'.

    Interesting that you think a military blockade is a casus belli.
    Well they were invaded on multiple sides in 1948 which ended with a ceasefire and the ceasefire was cancelled by those who had invaded. What does a side at war cancelling a ceasefire mean to you? To me it means the war is active again.

    Not sure what you find interesting but a military blockade has historically always been a casus belli. It's never not been one.
    So in the face of a military blockade, fight back with anything you've got? Rockets, for example?

    Of course in 1967 the Israelis initilally stated that it was Egypt who had made the intial attack, but when that story fell apart they shiftily moved onto the preemptive strike justification - 'The Israeli government later abandoned its initial position, acknowledging Israel had struck first'
    Yes of course. If someone attempted to blockade the UK militarily I would 100% support rockets etc to be used in any fight back. You wouldn't? You'd sit idly by while we were blockaded? How else do you expect a military blockade to end?
    Didn't expect solidarity with Hamas from your direction, but I'm sure those lads will take what they can get.
    Were you under the misapprehension that Hamas weren't in conflict with Israel? I have never claimed otherwise. Of course the Arabs started it, Hamas's refusal to recognise Israel's right to exist traces back uninterrupted to 1948 not 1967.

    Also of course Egypt also occupied the Gaza Strip until 67 and blockades it now yet curiously Hamas arent terrorising Egypt. Funny that.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,252
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, maybe.

    But with no deal there's disruption and Farage will attack Government incompetence for not planning for it (and with Grayling as Transport Secretary it's highly likely he'll have some easy hits). With a deal, given May's method of prevaricating then capitulating, there'll be red meat for Farage to throw his followers, influence given away, vassal state etc etc.

    I absolutely agree with Grayling. Rarely has there been a more inept politician and there is a large choice
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT thank you @another_richard
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited August 2018
    williamglenn said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    We could have a repeat of the referendum campaign farce with Boris and Farage doing rival bus tours at the same time.
    Do you mean the farce that won the vote 52/48?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1030779978810568709
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1030779978810568709

    I think that T. May embattled and attacked from left and right while trying to secure a softish Brexit could emerge triumphant from the process or her successor as i suspect she will stand down if a deal does emerge. A much bigger , stronger and more successful UKIP has already failed to let in a Labour government not very long ago. It may well be a case of rinse, repeat. The Tory brand is very enduring.
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    notme said:

    What’s this obsession with reverting back to the 1967 boundaries? From what I understand the 1967 war, Israel was invaded on multiple sides with the intention of wiping it out. Unfortunately it was better prepared than expected. It not only repelled the invaders it chased them back to the Jordan sea and then incorporated that land as their own. That’s not theft. That’s what happens when you pick a fight with someone who you think is weaker than you.

    While Israel may have been under various degrees of threat from mobilised neighbours, it struck first. Always best to be precise about these things.
    But not 'invaded on multiple sides'.

    Interesting that you think a military blockade is a casus belli.
    Well they were invaded on multiple sides in 1948 which ended with a ceasefire and the ceasefire was cancelled by those who had invaded. What does a side at war cancelling a ceasefire mean to you? To me it means the war is active again.

    Not sure what you find interesting but a military blockade has historically always been a casus belli. It's never not been one.
    So in the face of a military blockade, fight back with anything you've got? Rockets, for example?

    Of course in 1967 the Israelis initilally stated that it was Egypt who had made the intial attack, but when that story fell apart they shiftily moved onto the preemptive strike justification - 'The Israeli government later abandoned its initial position, acknowledging Israel had struck first'
    Yes of course. If someone attempted to blockade the UK militarily I would 100% support rockets etc to be used in any fight back. You wouldn't? You'd sit idly by while we were blockaded? How else do you expect a military blockade to end?
    Didn't expect solidarity with Hamas from your direction, but I'm sure those lads will take what they can get.
    Were you under the misapprehension that Hamas weren't in conflict with Israel? I have never claimed otherwise. Of course the Arabs started it, Hamas's refusal to recognise Israel's right to exist traces back uninterrupted to 1948 not 1967.

    Also of course Egypt also occupied the Gaza Strip until 67 and blockades it now yet curiously Hamas arent terrorising Egypt. Funny that.
    They blockade in accordance with Israel. Egypt's government is Israel's friend.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    Shouldn't the header be 'Last rites?'
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    ydoethur said:

    Shouldn't the header be 'Last rites?'

    Could be a pun, as in "there's only one loony left".
  • Options
    surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    Also will be interesting to see if Farage is met with counter demonstrations fromthe left

    Who was the Prussian aristocrat who thought he could ride the tiger that was Hitler?
    I am sure you are making a point but it is a bit beyond my uncomplicated mind !!!!!
    Sorry, Mr G. Hitler lost votes in the last democratic election in Weimar Germany, but was put into power as a result of wheeling and dealing by von Papen, a Prussian aristocrat who’thought he could control Hitler”!

    The French ambassador at about that time is quoted as saying that von Papen 'enjoyed the peculiarity of being taken seriously by neither his friends nor his enemies. He was reputed to be superficial, blundering, untrue, ambitious, vain, crafty and an intriguer’
    According to Time magazine.
    What makes me think of Boris?
    I thought his votes went up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_March_1933
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    New ball...
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    edited August 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Shouldn't the header be 'Last rites?'

    It's a play on right wing.

    The hardest thing when it comes to writing threads is coming up with subtle pop music references headlines.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,973
    Philip_Thompson said:


    Were you under the misapprehension that Hamas weren't in conflict with Israel? I have never claimed otherwise. Of course the Arabs started it, Hamas's refusal to recognise Israel's right to exist traces back uninterrupted to 1948 not 1967.

    Also of course Egypt also occupied the Gaza Strip until 67 and blockades it now yet curiously Hamas arent terrorising Egypt. Funny that.

    I thought we were discussing the principle of being able to strike back against a military blockade, which you seem very stridently to be in favour of? Perhaps in your new role as a supporter of the armed struggle, you should start a petition demanding that Hamas start getting tasty with the Egyptians, just for consistency like.

    As far as 'they started it' being appplied to an organisation that didn't exist when 'they started it', I'm afraid I must retire in the face of such profound reasoning and leave the last word to you.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, I'm pretty sure it'd serve Farage well.

    The demonstrations will attract more media attention, and consist largely of middle class metropolitan types from London, whereas Farage's power base comes from the working class, particularly from England (outside of London). The contrast will also help him.

    May is a terrible communicator. Corbyn sounds nice and is a good campaigner, but has an irascible temper and a bad habit of accidentally sharing stages with people of a dubious nature.

    Farage has many flaws, but he is a strong political communicator. After a couple of years of May's capitulation and prevarication and Corbyn's wishy-washy nonsense, there'll be, I suspect, a willing audience for Farage's brand of "Standing up for Britain" rhetoric (which is nice if you like slogans but rather lacking if you want a policy).

    If UKIP or an ersatz equivalent suddenly returned, it'd make the next election even trickier to call.

    Good reasoning but Brexit is coming to a head in the next few months and once a deal or no deal is achieved I would expect there will be a collective sigh of relief and other things will rise to the top of the political agenda.

    The next election if it is 2022 will be in a very different climate
    Wishful thinking if you think Brexit and all its divisive politics are going away. We'll be well into the blame game.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    Mr. Jonathan, agree with that sentiment. Regardless of what happens, a long term division (or divisions) over the appropriate UK policy to the EU will remain.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    I'm of the view the public are getting tired of excitement (in this country at least) and politics will calm down over the next few years.

    The end of austerity is an underestimated and underanalysed thing.

    The culture wars are here to stay, I'm afraid. It's only when both sides gain the self awareness to realise that they feed off each other that that will calm down too.

    At the moment they both enjoy stoking the flames far too much.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,971
    Mr. Royale, depends if Corbyn wins the next election or not.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,029
    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm of the view the public are getting tired of excitement (in this country at least) and politics will calm down over the next few years.

    The end of austerity is an underestimated and underanalysed thing.

    The culture wars are here to stay, I'm afraid. It's only when both sides gain the self awareness to realise that they feed off each other that that will calm down too.

    At the moment they both enjoy stoking the flames far too much.

    If one side of the culture war is saying that it’s nonsense to suggest the M20 will become a carpark after No Deal, perhaps it will only end when the M20 actually does become a carpark.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    edited August 2018
    surby said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:



    Didn't expect solidarity with Hamas from your direction, but I'm sure those lads will take what they can get.

    Were you under the misapprehension that Hamas weren't in conflict with Israel? I have never claimed otherwise. Of course the Arabs started it, Hamas's refusal to recognise Israel's right to exist traces back uninterrupted to 1948 not 1967.

    Also of course Egypt also occupied the Gaza Strip until 67 and blockades it now yet curiously Hamas arent terrorising Egypt. Funny that.
    They blockade in accordance with Israel. Egypt's government is Israel's friend.
    Surely an enemy's friend is an enemy? Or maybe Hamas see Egypt as an Israeli puppet of sorts. Perhaps Egypt isn't Jewish enough to attract their ire.
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,337
    rottenborough said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/1030770461670600705

    Uncle Len's article a sign that Corbynites are getting into hubris phase? Their mouths salivating at the prospect of dismantling the entire economic system of the UK.
    Yes. As we've seen with wreathgate some now think 'Let Corbyn be Corbyn', schoolboy revolutionary politics and all, is what needs to happen next. The curse of victory I suppose. Eventually your supporters are going to want the full fat version, and if It's nasty, divisive, racist, victim blaming, economically illiterate nonsense that's not been that scrutinised because you've solely talked in bromides about what you oppose, it won't be pretty.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    What is the purpose of Keaton Jennings?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    Is there a market on whether Joe Root will be banned from the next Test for the most pathetic over-rate by a Test captain since Desmond Hayes?

    And thank you for the clarification @TSE (and @williamglenn). Can I please be excused on the grounds of unusual subtlety?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,088
    edited August 2018
    Jonathan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, I'm pretty sure it'd serve Farage well.

    The demonstrations will attract more media attention, and consist largely of middle class metropolitan types from London, whereas Farage's power base comes from the working class, particularly from England (outside of London). The contrast will also help him.

    May is a terrible communicator. Corbyn sounds nice and is a good campaigner, but has an irascible temper and a bad habit of accidentally sharing stages with people of a dubious nature.

    Farage has many flaws, but he is a strong political communicator. After a couple of years of May's capitulation and prevarication and Corbyn's wishy-washy nonsense, there'll be, I suspect, a willing audience for Farage's brand of "Standing up for Britain" rhetoric (which is nice if you like slogans but rather lacking if you want a policy).

    If UKIP or an ersatz equivalent suddenly returned, it'd make the next election even trickier to call.

    Good reasoning but Brexit is coming to a head in the next few months and once a deal or no deal is achieved I would expect there will be a collective sigh of relief and other things will rise to the top of the political agenda.

    The next election if it is 2022 will be in a very different climate
    Wishful thinking if you think Brexit and all its divisive politics are going away. We'll be well into the blame game.
    Can I start the blame game? Jeremy Corbyn- for being a useless, toothless and witless Leader of the Opposition.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What is the purpose of Keaton Jennings?

    To make Alistair Cook and Jos Buttler look like in-form Test cricketers.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    edited August 2018
    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm of the view the public are getting tired of excitement (in this country at least) and politics will calm down over the next few years.

    The end of austerity is an underestimated and underanalysed thing.

    The culture wars are here to stay, I'm afraid. It's only when both sides gain the self awareness to realise that they feed off each other that that will calm down too.

    At the moment they both enjoy stoking the flames far too much.

    I don't think austerity is anywhere near ended though.

    The issue is not just Brexit, inflation, trade war or anaemic growth, though all these may well prove to be factors. The main issue is demographics, with an ageing population. There are a million more over 65's than there were in 2010. Austerity is here to stay.

    I was at a planning meeting at work this week. Unfillable vacancies, Rota gaps, growing waiting lists, an Emergency dept bursting at the seams, no beds for admissions even in August, an unfunded pay rise for some staff busting the budget and discontent from others who didn't get a rise. It was really a pretty grim meeting. It's not just me eyeing the exit.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    @Casino_Royale

    Off topic question: have you ridden the central section of Crossrail the Elizabeth Line?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    williamglenn said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm of the view the public are getting tired of excitement (in this country at least) and politics will calm down over the next few years.

    The end of austerity is an underestimated and underanalysed thing.

    The culture wars are here to stay, I'm afraid. It's only when both sides gain the self awareness to realise that they feed off each other that that will calm down too.

    At the moment they both enjoy stoking the flames far too much.

    If one side of the culture war is saying that it’s nonsense to suggest the M20 will become a carpark after No Deal, perhaps it will only end when the M20 actually does become a carpark.
    It's a sign of your total and absolute EU obsession that that's how you interpret it.

    I'm talking about orientating debate on public policy around gender, sexuality and the colour of people's skin, rather than treating them as individuals.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,924
    David_Evershed said:

    Farage could emerge as the leader of the Conservative WTO Brexit Group.

    The issue about WTO Brexit is that to get there painlessly, we still need to have prepared for, and ideally come to a deal with the EU.

    Crash out Brexit is not the same as WTO Brexit.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Royale, depends if Corbyn wins the next election or not.

    He might go, and Labour might.

    I don't think that would end it, and would probably amplify it.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on whether Joe Root will be banned from the next Test for the most pathetic over-rate by a Test captain since Desmond Hayes?

    And thank you for the clarification @TSE (and @williamglenn). Can I please be excused on the grounds of unusual subtlety?

    Worst over rate by a captain was Moin Khan in Karachi 2000.

    Barely nine overs an hour with TWO spinners bowling in tandem.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on whether Joe Root will be banned from the next Test for the most pathetic over-rate by a Test captain since Desmond Hayes?

    And thank you for the clarification @TSE (and @williamglenn). Can I please be excused on the grounds of unusual subtlety?

    Worst over rate by a captain was Moin Khan in Karachi 2000.

    Barely nine overs an hour with TWO spinners bowling in tandem.
    Yes, but unlike Hayes' cheating, oops, tactical astuteness, it didn't save the Test.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,921
    Essexit said:

    surby said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:



    Didn't expect solidarity with Hamas from your direction, but I'm sure those lads will take what they can get.

    Were you under the misapprehension that Hamas weren't in conflict with Israel? I have never claimed otherwise. Of course the Arabs started it, Hamas's refusal to recognise Israel's right to exist traces back uninterrupted to 1948 not 1967.

    Also of course Egypt also occupied the Gaza Strip until 67 and blockades it now yet curiously Hamas arent terrorising Egypt. Funny that.
    They blockade in accordance with Israel. Egypt's government is Israel's friend.
    Surely an enemy's friend is an enemy? Or maybe Hamas see Egypt as an Israeli puppet of sorts. Perhaps Egypt isn't Jewish enough to attract their ire.
    IANAE, but AIUI the relationship between Egypt and Hamas is complex and multi-faceted, and based in much more than Israeli influence. There are a whole host of issues, from security to personal enrichment. In fact, it's possible to argue that the arguing Gulf states have more to do with the complex relationship that Israel.

    At the moment it seems that Hamas/Egyptian relations are improving, including a potential reopening of the Rafah crossing. Hamas is under a little external pressure from he fact one of its main funders, Qatar, is under pressure from its fellow Gulf states.

    For all some rage about Israel's insidious actions in the Middle East, an equal, if not greater, influence comes from other nearby states.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    It's a shame it was Pandya Jennings dropped. Otherwise the headline 'Jennings drops Pant's (edge)' would have written itself.

    However, it doesn't appear to have been too costly.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Barnesian said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    UKIP has a handful of members.

    It's finances are disastrous.

    It will be lucky to field 20 candidates next time out.

    It needs help from experienced politicians to raise funds, select good candidates, recruit local activists, run campaigns and stand in say 200 seats. It won't gain any seats but it will split the Tory vote.

    Who benefits and is best placed to provide that help? Not the Tories of course. Answer - the Labour party - but it would have to be covert with no known names.

    EDIT: And it would have to be focused on Tory seats - the great betrayers.
    Well, given that the centre-left is busy setting up its own party, that task will have to fall to Momentum....
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on whether Joe Root will be banned from the next Test for the most pathetic over-rate by a Test captain since Desmond Hayes?

    And thank you for the clarification @TSE (and @williamglenn). Can I please be excused on the grounds of unusual subtlety?

    Worst over rate by a captain was Moin Khan in Karachi 2000.

    Barely nine overs an hour with TWO spinners bowling in tandem.
    Root's made a string of poor captaincy decisions from Day 4 of the previous test.

    Extended the England innings needlessly, dropped Curran for Stokes and put India in today.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,116
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on whether Joe Root will be banned from the next Test for the most pathetic over-rate by a Test captain since Desmond Hayes?

    And thank you for the clarification @TSE (and @williamglenn). Can I please be excused on the grounds of unusual subtlety?

    Worst over rate by a captain was Moin Khan in Karachi 2000.

    Barely nine overs an hour with TWO spinners bowling in tandem.
    Root's made a string of poor captaincy decisions from Day 4 of the previous test.

    Extended the England innings needlessly, dropped Curran for Stokes and put India in today.
    AIUI Curran/Stokes is Ed Smith's decision.

    Although it was, in common with most of his decisions, an extremely stupid one.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    rcs1000 said:

    @Casino_Royale

    Off topic question: have you ridden the central section of Crossrail the Elizabeth Line?

    Not yet. Testing over the weekend at the moment and the train/signalling software isn't stable yet.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,299
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Is there a market on whether Joe Root will be banned from the next Test for the most pathetic over-rate by a Test captain since Desmond Hayes?

    And thank you for the clarification @TSE (and @williamglenn). Can I please be excused on the grounds of unusual subtlety?

    Worst over rate by a captain was Moin Khan in Karachi 2000.

    Barely nine overs an hour with TWO spinners bowling in tandem.
    Root's made a string of poor captaincy decisions from Day 4 of the previous test.

    Extended the England innings needlessly, dropped Curran for Stokes and put India in today.
    AIUI Curran/Stokes is Ed Smith's decision.

    Although it was, in common with most of his decisions, an extremely stupid one.
    Nah a Root one.

    The selectors pick a squad but the the final XI is left to the skipper.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm of the view the public are getting tired of excitement (in this country at least) and politics will calm down over the next few years.

    The end of austerity is an underestimated and underanalysed thing.

    The culture wars are here to stay, I'm afraid. It's only when both sides gain the self awareness to realise that they feed off each other that that will calm down too.

    At the moment they both enjoy stoking the flames far too much.

    I don't think austerity is anywhere near ended though.

    The issue is not just Brexit, inflation, trade war or anaemic growth, though all these may well prove to be factors. The main issue is demographics, with an ageing population. There are a million more over 65's than there were in 2010. Austerity is here to stay.

    I was at a planning meeting at work this week. Unfillable vacancies, Rota gaps, growing waiting lists, an Emergency dept bursting at the seams, no beds for admissions even in August, an unfunded pay rise for some staff busting the budget and discontent from others who didn't get a rise. It was really a pretty grim meeting. It's not just me eyeing the exit.
    There are certainly challenges and there will always be extra calls on the public purse, but wwe ar approaching the point where the Government stops making strategic cuts and starting to choose where to invest instead.

    That will have an effect on the political debate.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    JosiasJessop said:

    Essexit said:

    surby said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:



    Didn't expect solidarity with Hamas from your direction, but I'm sure those lads will take what they can get.

    Were you under the misapprehension that Hamas weren't in conflict with Israel? I have never claimed otherwise. Of course the Arabs started it, Hamas's refusal to recognise Israel's right to exist traces back uninterrupted to 1948 not 1967.

    Also of course Egypt also occupied the Gaza Strip until 67 and blockades it now yet curiously Hamas arent terrorising Egypt. Funny that.
    They blockade in accordance with Israel. Egypt's government is Israel's friend.
    Surely an enemy's friend is an enemy? Or maybe Hamas see Egypt as an Israeli puppet of sorts. Perhaps Egypt isn't Jewish enough to attract their ire.
    IANAE, but AIUI the relationship between Egypt and Hamas is complex and multi-faceted, and based in much more than Israeli influence. There are a whole host of issues, from security to personal enrichment. In fact, it's possible to argue that the arguing Gulf states have more to do with the complex relationship that Israel.

    At the moment it seems that Hamas/Egyptian relations are improving, including a potential reopening of the Rafah crossing. Hamas is under a little external pressure from he fact one of its main funders, Qatar, is under pressure from its fellow Gulf states.

    For all some rage about Israel's insidious actions in the Middle East, an equal, if not greater, influence comes from other nearby states.
    Isn't Hamas a branch offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, who are in conflict with the Morsi government? And recently a number sentenced to death?

    http://m.france24.com/en/20180728-egypt-court-sentences-top-muslim-brotherhood-death


  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,544
    Casino_Royale said:

    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm of the view the public are getting tired of excitement (in this country at least) and politics will calm down over the next few years.

    The end of austerity is an underestimated and underanalysed thing.

    The culture wars are here to stay, I'm afraid. It's only when both sides gain the self awareness to realise that they feed off each other that that will calm down too.

    At the moment they both enjoy stoking the flames far too much.

    I don't think austerity is anywhere near ended though.

    The issue is not just Brexit, inflation, trade war or anaemic growth, though all these may well prove to be factors. The main issue is demographics, with an ageing population. There are a million more over 65's than there were in 2010. Austerity is here to stay.

    I was at a planning meeting at work this week. Unfillable vacancies, Rota gaps, growing waiting lists, an Emergency dept bursting at the seams, no beds for admissions even in August, an unfunded pay rise for some staff busting the budget and discontent from others who didn't get a rise. It was really a pretty grim meeting. It's not just me eyeing the exit.
    There are certainly challenges and there will always be extra calls on the public purse, but wwe ar approaching the point where the Government stops making strategic cuts and starting to choose where to invest instead.

    That will have an effect on the political debate.
    We shall see, but I think that public services will remain cachectic for the foreseeable.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,921
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Casino_Royale

    Off topic question: have you ridden the central section of Crossrail the Elizabeth Line?

    Not yet. Testing over the weekend at the moment and the train/signalling software isn't stable yet.
    I must admit that's one part of the project that slightly concerns me. The moving block system is going to be interesting to implement, and a failure to get the predicted paths per hour might play havoc with national rail in the west and east. Hopefully my concerns are silly ...
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,921
    Foxy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Essexit said:

    surby said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:



    Didn't expect solidarity with Hamas from your direction, but I'm sure those lads will take what they can get.

    Were you under the misapprehension that Hamas weren't in conflict with Israel? I have never claimed otherwise. Of course the Arabs started it, Hamas's refusal to recognise Israel's right to exist traces back uninterrupted to 1948 not 1967.

    Also of course Egypt also occupied the Gaza Strip until 67 and blockades it now yet curiously Hamas arent terrorising Egypt. Funny that.
    They blockade in accordance with Israel. Egypt's government is Israel's friend.
    Surely an enemy's friend is an enemy? Or maybe Hamas see Egypt as an Israeli puppet of sorts. Perhaps Egypt isn't Jewish enough to attract their ire.
    IANAE, but AIUI the relationship between Egypt and Hamas is complex and multi-faceted, and based in much more than Israeli influence. There are a whole host of issues, from security to personal enrichment. In fact, it's possible to argue that the arguing Gulf states have more to do with the complex relationship that Israel.

    At the moment it seems that Hamas/Egyptian relations are improving, including a potential reopening of the Rafah crossing. Hamas is under a little external pressure from he fact one of its main funders, Qatar, is under pressure from its fellow Gulf states.

    For all some rage about Israel's insidious actions in the Middle East, an equal, if not greater, influence comes from other nearby states.
    Isn't Hamas a branch offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, who are in conflict with the Morsi government? And recently a number sentenced to death?

    http://m.france24.com/en/20180728-egypt-court-sentences-top-muslim-brotherhood-death
    It may have been an offshoot of the brotherhood, but that doesn't mean they're not independent enough to make their own strategic alliances independent of the brotherhood.

    https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2017/08/24/egypts-surprising-friendship-with-hamas
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-hamas-agree-on-lifting-of-gaza-border-restrictions-report/
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    Also will be interesting to see if Farage is met with counter demonstrations fromthe left

    Who was the Prussian aristocrat who thought he could ride the tiger that was Hitler?
    Hindenburg?
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Someone offers Farage lots of big bucks (he likes those) to re-re-re lead UKIP and the Tories chances slide down the toilet.

    We could call it 'The Sting'.
  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,214
    surby said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I do not think Boris will be seen within a Country mile of Farage or Banks

    Also will be interesting to see if Farage is met with counter demonstrations fromthe left

    Who was the Prussian aristocrat who thought he could ride the tiger that was Hitler?
    I am sure you are making a point but it is a bit beyond my uncomplicated mind !!!!!
    Sorry, Mr G. Hitler lost votes in the last democratic election in Weimar Germany, but was put into power as a result of wheeling and dealing by von Papen, a Prussian aristocrat who’thought he could control Hitler”!

    The French ambassador at about that time is quoted as saying that von Papen 'enjoyed the peculiarity of being taken seriously by neither his friends nor his enemies. He was reputed to be superficial, blundering, untrue, ambitious, vain, crafty and an intriguer’
    According to Time magazine.
    What makes me think of Boris?
    I thought his votes went up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_March_1933
    The last genuinely free election was in November 1932

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_November_1932

    The loss of Nazi votes and seats was one of the reasons why von Papen (as Vice Chancellor and close friend of Hindenburg) believed he could control a Hitler-led government.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    williamglenn said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm of the view the public are getting tired of excitement (in this country at least) and politics will calm down over the next few years.

    The end of austerity is an underestimated and underanalysed thing.

    The culture wars are here to stay, I'm afraid. It's only when both sides gain the self awareness to realise that they feed off each other that that will calm down too.

    At the moment they both enjoy stoking the flames far too much.

    If one side of the culture war is saying that it’s nonsense to suggest the M20 will become a carpark after No Deal, perhaps it will only end when the M20 actually does become a carpark.
    Well you’ve said (I) the haulage industry will be destroyed (ii) will use new routes destroying Dover and (iii) the M20 will be a car park

    Presumably (I) and (ii) counteract (iii)?

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,280
    JosiasJessop said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Casino_Royale

    Off topic question: have you ridden the central section of Crossrail the Elizabeth Line?

    Not yet. Testing over the weekend at the moment and the train/signalling software isn't stable yet.
    I must admit that's one part of the project that slightly concerns me. The moving block system is going to be interesting to implement, and a failure to get the predicted paths per hour might play havoc with national rail in the west and east. Hopefully my concerns are silly ...
    No-one should be any under illusions: it's extremely difficult. Crossrail trains are a new design using a brand new train control management system that needs to speak to three different signalling systems, manage paths within both moving and fixed block in the short term, and do so consistently and reliably.

    No-one has ever done that before, at least in the UK. And no-one wants another T5, or Thameslink/Northern Rail cockup.

    So it won't be brought into service until there's 100% confidence it's reliable. Safety is a given because nothing happens on the railway these days, in any form, unless it's totally safe, and all the software defaults to applying the emergency brakes for the slightest problem.
  • Options
    twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,074
    Casino_Royale said:

    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I'm of the view the public are getting tired of excitement (in this country at least) and politics will calm down over the next few years.

    The end of austerity is an underestimated and underanalysed thing.

    The culture wars are here to stay, I'm afraid. It's only when both sides gain the self awareness to realise that they feed off each other that that will calm down too.

    At the moment they both enjoy stoking the flames far too much.

    I don't think austerity is anywhere near ended though.

    The issue is not just Brexit, inflation, trade war or anaemic growth, though all these may well prove to be factors. The main issue is demographics, with an ageing population. There are a million more over 65's than there were in 2010. Austerity is here to stay.

    I was at a planning meeting at work this week. Unfillable vacancies, Rota gaps, growing waiting lists, an Emergency dept bursting at the seams, no beds for admissions even in August, an unfunded pay rise for some staff busting the budget and discontent from others who didn't get a rise. It was really a pretty grim meeting. It's not just me eyeing the exit.
    There are certainly challenges and there will always be extra calls on the public purse, but wwe ar approaching the point where the Government stops making strategic cuts and starting to choose where to invest instead.

    That will have an effect on the political debate.
    I'm with the good Doctor on this. We've had a hell of a difficult summer and that is without any really major incidents. We just don't have enough resources to cope with much more than a couple of largish jobs in the county at once. A flat fire in the city, maybe be a combine setting fire to a field at the same time in one of the rural patches and a serious RTC on the motorway happening simultaneously, and we're getting pumps in from other counties in to cover our stations, which means that they have to call on other counties if things kick off back home. Luckily, I'm on the wind down.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,921
    Casino_Royale said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Casino_Royale

    Off topic question: have you ridden the central section of Crossrail the Elizabeth Line?

    Not yet. Testing over the weekend at the moment and the train/signalling software isn't stable yet.
    I must admit that's one part of the project that slightly concerns me. The moving block system is going to be interesting to implement, and a failure to get the predicted paths per hour might play havoc with national rail in the west and east. Hopefully my concerns are silly ...
    No-one should be any under illusions: it's extremely difficult. Crossrail trains are a new design using a brand new train control management system that needs to speak to three different signalling systems, manage paths within both moving and fixed block in the short term, and do so consistently and reliably.

    No-one has ever done that before, at least in the UK. And no-one wants another T5, or Thameslink/Northern Rail cockup.

    So it won't be brought into service until there's 100% confidence it's reliable. Safety is a given because nothing happens on the railway these days, in any form, unless it's totally safe, and all the software defaults to applying the emergency brakes for the slightest problem.
    Thanks. Let's hope it goes well.
This discussion has been closed.